CNBC节选:查理·芒格与贝基·奎克在《Squawk Box》节目上的对话
时间2022 年 11 月 15 日,星期二
WHENToday, Tuesday, November 15, 2022
地点CNBC《财经论谈》(Squawk Box)节目
WHERECNBC's "Squawk Box"
以下摘自 CNBC《财经论剑》(Squawk Box,周一至周五,美东时间上午 6 点至 9 点)对伯克希尔·哈撒韦副董事长查理·芒格的独家专访非官方文字记录,播出时间为本周二,11 月 15 日。完整访谈将于 CNBC《财经论剑播客》(Squawk Pod)播出,以下为 CNBC.com 视频链接:https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/15/charlie-munger-weighs-in-on-crypto-collapse-we-do-not-need-currency-for-kidnappers.html 和 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/15/charlie-munger-what-tesla-has-done-in-the-car-industry-is-a-minor-miracle.html。
Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chair Charlie Munger on CNBC's "Squawk Box" (M-F, 6AM-9AM ET) today, Tuesday, November 15. The full interview will be available on CNBC's " Squawk Pod " and following are links to video on CNBC.com: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/15/charlie-munger-weighs-in-on-crypto-collapse-we-do-not-need-currency-for-kidnappers.html and https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/15/charlie-munger-what-tesla-has-done-in-the-car-industry-is-a-minor-miracle.html .
所有引用必须注明出处为 CNBC。
All references must be sourced to CNBC.
查理·芒格:关于加密货币和 FTX
MUNGER ON CRYPTO AND FTX
贝基·奎克伯克希尔·哈撒韦副董事长查理·芒德用了很多词来描述加密货币。他称其为“令人作呕”、“愚蠢且邪恶”、“耗子药”。他甚至将其比作性病。在交易所 FTX 崩溃后,我通过 Zoom 与 98 岁的芒格谈了比特币和加密货币。他对萨姆·班克曼-弗里德、FTX 的员工、投资者,以及红杉资本等风投机构毫不留情。
BECKY QUICKBerkshire Hathaway Vice Chair Charlie Munger has used a lot of words to describe cryptocurrency. He's called it, "disgusting," "stupid and evil," "rat poison." He has even compared it to venereal disease. I spoke to the 98-year-old Munger over Zoom about Bitcoin and crypto after the collapse of the exchange FTX. He didn't hold back on Sam Bankman-Fried or those who worked with FTX, investors, venture firms like Sequoia and others.
查理·芒格让我痛心的是,在我自己的国家里,我看到一些曾经被视为德高望重的人,正在助长这些东西的滋生和蔓延。这是一件非常非常糟糕的事。这个国家不需要一种有利于绑架犯之类的货币。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt pains me that my own country, I see people that were once were regarded as very reputable people helping these things exist growing their and so forth. This is a very very bad thing. The country did not need a currency that's good for kidnappers and so on.
贝基·奎克你觉得发生了什么?因为这里有很多大人物,很多个人和公司——
QUICKWhat do you think happened? Because there are a lot of big names, a lot of people and firms—
查理·芒格嗯,这,这就是让我沮丧的地方。有些人觉得自己非得赶上每一个热门交易不可,不管是雏妓还是比特币,只要是热门,他们就想参与。我觉得这完全是疯了。在金融生涯中,声誉非常有用,而跟那些渣滓和渣滓推广搅在一起毁掉自己的声誉,是个巨大的错误。
MUNGERWell that's what, that's what depresses me. There are people think they gotta be on every deal that's hot and they don't care whether it's child prostitution or Bitcoin. If it's hot, they want to be on it. I think that's totally crazy. Reputation is very helpful in financial life and to destroy your reputation by associating with scum balls and scum ball promotions, it's a huge mistake.
贝基·奎克你觉得这些公司有没有做过尽职调查,还是说发生了什么?
QUICKDo you think those companies did any due diligence or what happened?
查理·芒格不过我觉得他们实际上也是好意,但你看到的是大量妄想。这有点像欺诈,又有点像妄想,两者搅在一起可不好。我既不喜欢欺诈也不喜欢妄想,而且妄想可能比欺诈更极端。
MUNGERI think they actually mean well, though, that you're seeing a lot of delusion. It's partly fraud and partly delusion. That's a bad combination. I don't like either fraud or delusion and the delusion maybe more extreme than the fraud.
贝基·奎克怎么个妄想法?
QUICKDelusion how so?
查理·芒格嗯,不会有哪样新东西能让每个 12 岁小孩都成为亿万富翁或变成别的什么。他管它叫“芒格币”,然后开始交易什么的。这,这简直就是疯狂,是丧心病狂。
MUNGERWell, nobody's going to be on a new thing that every 12-year-old kid can be a billionaire or something. He just calls it Munger coin starts trading it or something. It's, it's crazy it's demented.
查理·芒格谈区块链
MUNGER ON BLOCKCHAIN
贝基·奎克芒格当然不会轻易接受区块链这类新技术的价值,因为它背后潜藏着投机风险,他甚至称之为像加密货币这样的疯狂冒险。
QUICKMunger of course is not quick to accept the value of the new technology like the blockchain over the potential danger of a speculative risky or even as he calls it demented venture like cryptocurrency.
查理·芒格你看,你确实有个好主意。但把这个好主意推到极致,就太容易了。正因为如此,好主意被推到极致就变成了坏主意。一旦你脑子里有了这个概念,当然总会有些好主意。没人会说,我有个——我想卖给你,区块链,区块链是个新出来的好东西,就像魔法粉末一样。
MUNGERLook, you got a good idea. It's much easier to push that to wretched excess. That's why good ideas carried to wretched excess become bad ideas. And once you get that concept in your mind, of course, there's always gonna be some good idea. Nobody's gonna say I got some -- I want to sell you, blockchain, blockchain is a new good thing that's come up like fairy dust.
贝基·奎克查理,你确实有本事把话说得非常精确。
QUICKYou do have a way of putting it very precisely, Charlie.
查理·芒格:关于监管者角色的看法
MUNGER ON ROLE OF REGULATORS
贝基·奎克我问芒格,监管机构在这场灾难中应该扮演什么角色,以及 FTX 危机对他们在困难局面中导航的能力会产生什么影响。
QUICKI asked Munger what role regulators had to play in the catastrophe and the impact that FTX's crisis will have on their ability to try and navigate difficult situations.
查理·芒格我觉得那些监管机构从头到尾就被这件事搞糊涂了。一群上了年纪的人,长期以来一直按某种方式行事,现在却要面对像捕蚊器一样的标准。他们会拍蚊子,但就是对付不了小飞虫。
MUNGERWell, I think the authorities have been confused by the whole damn thing. A bunch of elderly people that have done things a certain way for a long time now have to deal with a standard like a mosquito catcher. They know how to smack mosquitoes. They just can't handle gnats.
贝基·奎克它们漏网了?
QUICKThey slip through the net?
查理·芒格监管机构,那些监管机构的行为简直,我觉得简直疯了。这些东西从一开始就不该被允许。
MUNGERRegulators, the regulators have behaved just, it's just insane to me. None of this stuff should have ever been allowed.
贝基·奎克您觉得阻碍在哪里?因为在我看来,这像是美国证券交易委员会和商品期货交易委员会之间一场巨大的地盘争夺战。
QUICKWhat do you think the holdup is because when I look at it, it seems like it's a big turf war, turf battle between the SEC and the CFTC.
查理·芒格因为它不符合现有的框架,当然困难。当然,监管机构也很难处理一种全新的活动。整个互联网曾经是新的,所以这个行业全是新的。但危险的信号已经摇摆得如此明显。那个家伙说“我要卖给你一大堆虚无,而虚无对你来说已经足够了”。这不是——你怎么听到这个还不觉得这是个大笑话?但人们认为这是一种真正的资产。它不是真正的资产。
MUNGERBecause it doesn't fit into existing, of course it's hard. Of course, it's hard for the regulators to do for, to deal with a new, a new activity. The whole internet was new and so this whole business is new. But the danger flags are wagging so clearly. The guy says I'm gonna sell you plenty of nothing and nothing is plenty for you. It isn't, how can you hear that and not think this is a big joke. But people think this is a real asset. It's not a real asset.
查理·芒格:关于中央银行和埃隆·马斯克
MUNGER ON CENTRAL BANKS AND ELON MUSK
贝基·奎克你可能也知道,伯克希尔·哈撒韦副董事长查理·芒格向来直言不讳。他长期对加密货币持怀疑态度,对比特币这种“耗子药”嗤之以鼻,更青睐美元和其他世界货币,即便全球央行都在应对创纪录的高通胀和不断攀升的利率。
QUICKAs you probably know, Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chair Charlie Munger is not one to mince words. He's been a longtime crypto skeptic dismissing rat poison like Bitcoin in favor of the dollar and other world currencies, even as central banks around the world balance record high inflation with rising interest rates.
查理·芒格我基本上支持美联储的存在。我认为在一个法定货币的世界里,我们需要明智的中央银行。看看今天的日本,你会发现那里的央行已经让我们的央行变成了一只几乎什么都不做的小老鼠。所以我们学到了,央行可以极其重要。你可以在必要时把它们推到极度宽松的境地,如果你们陷入足够大的麻烦的话。所以总的来说,我喜欢央行行长们,而总的来说,我讨厌比特币的鼓吹者。
MUNGERI basically like the existence of the Fed. I think in a world of fiat currencies, we need wise central banks and we if you look at Japan today, you would find that a central bank has made our central bank a little mouse that hardly tries to do anything. So we've learned that central banks can be really important. You can push them to great excess if you have to and you're in enough trouble. So by and large, I like central bankers and by and large I hate Bitcoin promoters.
贝基·奎克你说我们和日本央行比起来像只小老鼠,这是好事吗?我的意思是,看看日本发生了什么。
QUICKWhen you say that we look like a mouse compared to Japan's central bank is that a good thing? I mean, look what's happened to Japan.
查理·芒格我们还没到需要尝试那一步。但真遇上日本那种麻烦,我们当然会照做,一点不含糊。
MUNGERWe haven't had to try it. But we get the kind of trouble Japan was in, of course we'll do the same damn thing.
贝基·奎克我还借机问了芒格先生关于埃隆·马斯克的事,这个周末有个推特账号专门发布据称是埃隆·马斯克的语录。其中一条是:“2009 年我和芒格共进午餐,他对在座所有人列举了特斯拉会失败的所有理由。这让我很难过,但我告诉他,我认同所有这些理由,我们可能会死。但还是值得一试。” 埃隆·马斯克本人在那条推文下回复说:“真的,确实发生过。” 我问了查理·芒格这事。他记不得那次午餐了。毕竟是很多年前的事了。2009 年可能给埃隆·马斯克留下的印象比给查理·芒格深刻得多。不过,当和他聊起这事时,他不记得自己做过那样的诊断,而且他对埃隆·马斯克还是说了些好话。
QUICKI also got the chance to ask Mr. Munger about Elon Musk over the weekend there was a Twitter account that tweets out quotes supposedly from Elon Musk. This one said, "I was at a lunch with Munger in 2009 where he told the whole table all the ways Tesla would fail. Made me quite sad, but I told him I agreed with all those reasons and that we would probably die. But it was worth trying anyway." Now Elon Musk himself replied back to that and said, "True, that did happen." I asked Charlie Munger about it. He doesn't recall that lunch. It was a long time ago. 2009 probably made a bigger impression on Elon Musk than it did on Charlie Munger. However, when you talk to him about it, he doesn't remember giving the diagnosis he still had some kind things to say about Elon Musk.
查理·芒格我当然对特斯拉的表现感到意外——它确实做得非常好,但我不会把特斯拉和比特币画上等号。
MUNGERI was certainly surprised that Tesla, Tesla did as well as it did, but I do not equate Tesla with Bitcoin.
QUICKGood.
QUICKGood.
查理·芒格特斯拉确实为这个文明做出了一些实实在在的贡献。埃隆·马斯克做成了一些别人做不到的好事。
MUNGERTesla has, has made some real contributions to this civilization. Elon Musk has done some good things that other people couldn't do.
贝基·奎克实际上,芒格对马斯克在特斯拉的工作评价很高。
QUICKIn fact, about Musk's work at Tesla, Munger was very complimentary.
查理·芒格很久很久没有出现过一家成功的新汽车公司了,但特斯拉在汽车行业所取得的成就是一个小小的奇迹。
MUNGERWe haven't had a successful new auto company in a long, long time, but Tesla has done in the car business is a minor miracle.
查理·芒格:关于投机资产和中国
MUNGER ON SPECULATIVE ASSETS AND CHINA
贝基·奎克芒格说他相信某些创新。疫情期间他成了 Zoom 的常规用户。他不反对新技术,但他说他反对那种他认为是充斥在加密货币世界里的、高度紧张的高风险投机。他称这很危险。
QUICKNow Munger says he is a believer in some innovation. He became a regular user of Zoom during the pandemic. He's not against new technology, but he says he is against highly charged risky speculation that he thinks is rampant in the world of cryptocurrency. Calls it dangerous.
查理·芒格我喜欢那些顶级风投手中的投机性资产,比如他们带给我们像 Zoom 这类新公司,或者像 Stripe 这样的公司。所以我喜欢他们创造的新公司,而且,我,我很高兴我们有新东西不断被发明出来。所以我并不是反对一切新事物。我只是对那种带有魔幻和幻觉色彩的新事物持保留态度。那有点像连锁信,靠幻觉在推动。我当然不喜欢它。这些东西在涨涨跌跌的过程中会造成巨大的破坏。我们甚至还没有看到,这些东西的大幅崩盘足以引发大规模的经济衰退和萧条。
MUNGERI like the speculative assets of the best of the venture capitalists where they give us a new company like Zoom or a new company like Stripe or something. And so I like the new companies they create and I, I, I'm glad we have new things being invented. So I'm not against everything that's new. I'm just, ahead of everything new that is kinda magic and delusion. It's kind of a chain letter, delusion carrying it along. Of course I don't like it. These things do enormous damage when these things rise and fall. We're not even, these things, these big collapses they can pay for big recessions and depressions.
贝基·奎克你觉得这次的情况是这样吗?这是否是一个更大范围崩盘的开始?
QUICKDo you think that's the case with this? Is this the beginning of a larger unraveling?
查理·芒格这是另一个话题了。一位非常有名的人曾说过,一个伟大的文明在走向衰亡的过程中会包含很多毁灭性的东西,而且这个过程耗时很长。罗马从巅峰到谷底经历了漫长的衰落期,后来的其他文明也会如此。但这些人却在推波助澜——他们正在加速文明的衰亡。
MUNGERThat's another subject. A very famous man once said that a great civilization has a lot of ruin in it, and it took a long time to ruin it. Rome took a long time to decline, from its peak to its bottom and that will be true with other civilizations that have come along later. But these people are promoting things like -- they're promoting the decline of civilization.
贝基·奎克这是昨天上午的一段对话,我还问了芒格关于中国以及拜登总统与习近平主席会晤的看法。你可能知道,芒格长期以来一直主张美国与中国之间应建立牢固的经济关系。
QUICKNow, this was a conversation that took place yesterday morning I also asked Munger about China and President Biden's meeting with Xi Jinping. Munger, as you probably know, has been a longtime proponent of a strong economic relationship between the United States and China.
查理·芒格嗯,拜登与中国领导人会面,这件事很有意思。这已经很久没发生了。这是一件非常积极、建设性的事情,对中美两国怎么可能不是好事呢。我认为,我们其实已经创造了不少成果——我们对中国的进口如此友好,实际上帮助了中国。可以说,我们帮助超过十亿人摆脱了贫困,进入一个相当先进的文明状态。我们为什么要停下?
MUNGERWell, it's very interesting to have Biden meeting with the leader of China. That hasn't happened in a long time. That's a very good, constructive thing, how could that not be a good idea for China and a good idea of the United States. I think what we we too have already created, we actually helped China by being so friendly to their imports. We help them take but I would say over a billion people out of poverty and to a pretty advanced state of civilization. Why would we stop?
贝基·奎克我想人们唯一会反驳的理由就是,因为中国说过他们想要掌控一切,他们想接管一切,他们想再次占领台湾。
QUICKI guess the only argument people would give back is because China has said that they want to run things, that they're going to take control, that they want to take over Taiwan again.
查理·芒格我们做的不过是嫉妒那些过得更好的人。我们为什么非得被嫉妒驱使?总有人比你富得更快,尤其是那些白手起家的。一个像我们这样伟大的文明,为什么要在乎新文明的崛起?我们应该和新文明交朋友,继续争取双赢的交易。道理就这么简单。
MUNGERAll we've done is take the envy other people who are doing well. Why do we need to be motivated by envy? There's always gonna be somebody that's getting rich faster than you are, particularly if they start poor. And so why should a great civilization like ours care if a new civilization rises. We should make a friend out of the new civilization and keep trying to have win win transactions. It's so simple.