CNBC完整文字记录:《查理·芒格:智慧与风趣的一生》纪录片特辑

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亿万富翁投资者查理·芒格于 2023 年 11 月 14 日在加利福尼亚州洛杉矶接受了 CNBC 的贝基·奎克专访,以此纪念他即将到来的 100 岁生日。芒格于 11 月 28 日去世,享年 99 岁。“查理·芒格:睿智与幽默的一生”节目收录了这次最新采访,以颂扬芒格的一生和他传奇的职业生涯。

Billionaire investor Charlie Munger sat down with CNBC's Becky Quick on November 14, 2023 in Los Angeles, CA in a special interview to commemorate his soon-to-come 100th birthday. Munger passed away on November 28 at the age of 99. "Charlie Munger: A Life of Wit and Wisdom" features this recent interview to celebrate Munger's life and his storied career.

以下是本周四(11 月 30 日)播出的特别节目的完整文字记录。

Following is the complete transcript from the special that aired today, Thursday, November 30.

“查理·芒格:睿智与幽默的一生”的加映时间如下:

Encore presentations of "Charlie Munger: A Life of Wit and Wisdom" will air on the following dates and times:

周五,12/1 凌晨 1:00(美东时间)

Friday, 12/1 at 1:00 AM ET

周六,12/2 下午 3:00(美东时间)

Saturday, 12/2 at 3:00 PM ET

周日,12/3 凌晨 5:00(美东时间)

Sunday, 12/3 at 5:00 AM ET

周一,12/4 凌晨 3:00(美东时间)

Monday, 12/4 at 3:00 AM ET

所有引用均需注明来源为 CNBC。

All references must be sourced to CNBC.

PART ONE

PART ONE

查理·芒格这无疑是一个人一生的奇特样本。一个最初想成为律师的人,最终却拥有了一个更像导师而非律师的身份,这很有趣。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's certainly a peculiar example of one life. It's interesting that a man who started out to be a lawyer ended up with an identity that's more like a guru's than a lawyer's.

贝基·奎克我曾有一次称你为律师。我当时想,那大概是你对我最生气的一次。因为那是你的起点,但你实际上研究了各个领域,并试图——

BECKY QUICKI called you a lawyer once. And I think that was the most irritated you've ever been with me. Because that was how you started things, but you really have studied every field out there and tried to—

查理·芒格是的,当然。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, sure.

贝基·奎克——从生活中不同的学科和不同的模型中汲取经验。你是有意为之的吗?

BECKY QUICK--to take things from different studies and different models in life. Did you go about doing that intentionally?

查理·芒格当然。我能看到它的力量。

CHARLIE MUNGEROf course. I could see the power of it.

贝基·奎克你是什么时候想通的?

BECKY QUICKWhen did you figure it out?

查理·芒格嗯,这对我来说是自然而然的事。而且我那时就是那种我所谓的天生傲慢的人。我的头脑并没有那么出色。你知道吗?我属于前 1%,但绝非天才。所以我永远不会在一个需要天才头脑的领域取得成功。但我的头脑比普通人要好得多。我很早就意识到了这一点。我只是打好自己手中拿到的牌,以尽可能获得更多优势。其他人也都是这样做的。他们打好自己手中的牌,以尽可能获取最大的优势。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, it came naturally to me. And I was what I would call naturally arrogant. And I wasn't that good a mind. You know? I was in the top 1%, but no prodigy. So I never would've succeeded in a field that required a mind to be that of a prodigy. But it was a much better mind than ordinary people had. And I recognized that quite early. And I just played the hand I was dealt in order to get as much advantage as I could. And that's what everybody else does too. They play the hand that was dealt to get as much advantage as they possibly can.

贝基·奎克你是什么时候意识到这一点的?你还是个孩子吗?

BECKY QUICKWhen did you recognize that? Were you a child still?

查理·芒格很小。我在上小学的时候,就常常在脑子里修改课本里的内容,让它更正确,因为我意识到教授讲错了。

CHARLIE MUNGERVery young. I used – when I was taking courses in grade school, I was often revising the textbook in the course in my head to make it more correct. because I realized the professor was doing it wrong.

贝基·奎克你当时会意识到哪些事情他们做错了?

BECKY QUICKWhat kind of things would you recognize that they-- that they were doing wrong?

查理·芒格哦。他们有些疯狂的想法。比如,我的拉丁语老师性格有些不正常,而且她还是西格蒙德·弗洛伊德的忠实追随者。我还在上高中的时候,第一次读到弗洛伊德的书,就意识到他是个什么样的人。当然,一个拉丁语老师在教学生弗洛伊德学说的古怪小男孩确实少见。但那就是她——她很古怪,我也一样。当然,当我读到——我从地区图书馆买了西格蒙德·弗洛伊德的全部著作。那是一本大部头。我非常费力地读完了它。我意识到他是个该死的疯子。所以我决定不跟我的拉丁语老师学那个。我有过一些非常不寻常的老师。我一生中最好的老师是朗·富勒。他是所有法学院里最好的合同法老师。而合同法是每所法学院里最好的科目,至少我这么认为。因为它与伴随着亚当·斯密以及那些人的新经济学理论完美地结合在一起。

CHARLIE MUNGEROh. They had some crazy idea. For instance, my Latin teacher was maladjusted, but one who was a devoted follower of Sigmund Freud. And I recognized that Sigmund Freud was –when I first read him when I was in high school. And, of course, it was an odd little boy whose Latin teacher is teaching him Freud. But that was – she was peculiar and so was I. And, of course, when I read – I bought the complete writings of Sigmund Freud from the area library. It was one big book. And I went through it very laboriously. And I realized he was a goddamn lunatic. And so I decided I wasn't gonna learn that from my Latin teacher. I had some very unusual teachers. The best teacher I had in my life was Lon Fuller. Well, he was the best contracts teacher in any law school. And contracts is the best subject in every law school, at least I think it is. Because it integrates so beautifully with the new doctrine of an economics that came along with Adam Smith and all those people.

贝基·奎克但是,你在遇到他之前就已经有了心智模型(mental models)这个想法。

BECKY QUICKYou had this idea of mental models before you got to him though.

查理·芒格是的。这对我来说是自然而然的事。但我非常崇拜朗·富勒。我一生中从未对任何其他老师感到过如此敬畏,包括一些做出了非凡成就的天才数学家和物理学家。但富勒确实、确实影响了我——他真的改变了我的一生。他几乎让我成为了一名法学教授。我曾考虑过当法学教授。而且我知道我会相当擅长。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. And I just naturally came to it. And but it was very much Lon Fuller. I was just awestruck by Lon Fuller. I have never been awestruck by any other teacher in my whole life, including some gifted mathematicians and physicists who did some remarkable things. But Fuller really, really had an impact-- he really changed my life. He almost made me a law professor. I considered being a law professor. But then and I knew I'd be pretty good at it.

贝基·奎克我们来谈谈本杰明·富兰克林。他是我们国家的缔造者之一。他很著名地发表了那些——

BECKY QUICKLet's talk about Benjamin Franklin. He's one of the framers of our nation. He very famously gave out very--

查理·芒格而且他是个天才。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd he was a prodigy.

贝基·奎克而且他是个天才。他自学了很多不同的学科。

BECKY QUICKAnd he was a prodigy. And he trained himself in lots of different disciplines.

查理·芒格嗯,他自学成才,只受过大约两年的小学教育。这是非常了不起的事情。当他晚年发现自己需要代数这样的知识时,他回过头去,拿出教科书,自学了代数。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, and he self-trained himself with, like, two years of grade school education. This is a very remarkable thing. And when he found late in life that he needed something like algebra, he went back, and pulled out the textbook, and taught himself algebra.

贝基·奎克你当时多大——

BECKY QUICKHow old were you—

查理·芒格他是一个非常自学成才的人。就这一点而言,这是一个非常有趣的故事。一个自学了一切——比如拉丁语——的人,怎么可能涉足如此多的不同领域,并且成为全国顶尖的人物?我们能有他,难道不是很幸运吗?

CHARLIE MUNGERHe was a very much a self-educated man. And that was a very much an interesting story for that reason. How could a man who taught himself everything, you know, like Latin, and it was just how could a man like that go into so many different fields and be the top guy in the whole country? And weren't we lucky to have him?

贝基·奎克是的。也就是从那时起,你开始效仿他的一些做法——

BECKY QUICKYes. And that's when you started modeling yourself after some of the things he—

查理·芒格我不知道我是什么时候开始以本杰明·富兰克林为榜样的。但我确实尝试过稍微效仿他。我喜欢金融生活和日常生活的混合。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't know when I started modeling myself after Benjamin Franklin. But I certainly tried to model myself a little. I liked the mixture of financial life and regular life.

贝基·奎克你大学是在密歇根大学开始的。你入学时很年轻,因为你在小学跳过级。你主修数学。为什么选择数学?

BECKY QUICKYou started out in college at the University of Michigan. And you were young when you went there, because you had skipped some time in grade school. And you went for mathematics. Why'd you choose mathematics?

查理·芒格因为我可以不费吹灰之力就得 A。这就是我选择数学的原因。

CHARLIE MUNGERBecause I could get an A in it without doing any work. That's why I chose mathematics.

贝基·奎克然后随着时间的推移,你转专业了。

BECKY QUICKAnd then you shifted with time.

查理·芒格是的。是的。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. Yes.

贝基·奎克你学数学学了几年。

BECKY QUICKYou did that for a couple of years.

查理·芒格是的。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes.

贝基·奎克然后二战打断了学业。珍珠港事件发生时,你才 17 岁。

BECKY QUICKAnd then World War II interrupted things. You were 17 still when Pearl Harbor happened.

查理·芒格那时我断定生物学不是处理战争的合适科学,地质学也不是处理战争的合适科学,显然我必须从物理学开始。所以我学了物理学。

CHARLIE MUNGERThen I decided that biology was not the proper science to handle a war or geology was not the proper science to handle any war and that obviously I had to start with physics. So I took physics.

贝基·奎克然后你专注于——

BECKY QUICKAnd then you focused on—

查理·芒格实际上我不用学太多,因为我一掌握了物理学的第一部分,就真的作为一名列兵加入了空军军官队,在隆冬时节某片田野里行军,睡在帐篷里。

CHARLIE MUNGERNow I didn't have to take it very much, because as soon as I'd mastered the first part of physics, I actually entered the Airforce Corp as a private, and marched around in some field in the middle of winter, and slept in a tent.

贝基·奎克所以,查理,你出生于 1924 年的第一天。你见证了一个世纪的历史。我想知道,你是否曾停下来思考过——

BECKY QUICKSo, Charlie, you were born on the first day of 1924. You have seen a century of history. And I wonder, do you ever stop—

查理·芒格不仅如此,我还生活在上一个世纪的历史余波中。事实上,你可以说人类文明大约 90% 的进步都发生在过去两个世纪里,而我正好生活在这其中一个世纪之后。因为在那个世纪里,我们作为起点,发现了非常、非常多的极其重要的东西。如果你停下来想想技术革命,它发生在那一个世纪。就是在那时候,你知道,所有这些金矿,以及所有这些蒸汽机等等都被创造出来了。所以,也正是这一点推动了经济体系的提升,使得人类有了足够的闲暇,有了足够的时间去思考,而不仅仅是获取食物。因此,出生在那个世纪,出生在一切增长将要发生的地点,真是一个奇妙的时代。

CHARLIE MUNGERNot only that, I lived in the aftermath of a previous century of history. In fact, you can argue that about 90% of the progress of man that's happened in civilization has occurred in the last two centuries and that I lived in the immediate aftermath of one. Because in that century, we figured out so very, very much that was quite important as a start. If you stop to think about the technical revolution, it happened in that century. That's when they, you know, when all these goldmines, and created all these steam engines, and so on. And so it was just and, of course, that's what brought the economic system up, so man had enough leisure, had enough time to think when he wasn't getting enough food to eat. And so it was an amazing time to be born, and be born in the place in that century where all the growth was gonna occur.

贝基·奎克然后 1924 年你出生了。

BECKY QUICKAnd then you come along in 1924.

查理·芒格紧接着,我的父亲成长在一个世界里,那时如果你想在林肯市(内布拉斯加州)周边走动,你必须使用马车。没有汽车。没有广播。那是一个非常不同的世界。铁路也很原始。他就是在那样的环境中长大的。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd then immediately after that, my father grew up in a world where if you wanted to go around Lincoln, Nebraska, you had to use a horse and buggy. There was no car. There was no broadcasting. There was-- it was a very different world. The railroads were primitive. And-- that's what he grew up in.

贝基·奎克而过去 100 年发生的一切也同样引人注目吗?

BECKY QUICKAnd what's happened over the last 100 years? Has been pretty remarkable too?

查理·芒格是的。我所生活的这 100 年更加引人注目。这几乎是全部现代生物学、现代医学、现代工业文明和现代化学的缩影。想象一下世界会是什么样子,你知道,我们有了照片 100 年后,才发展出现代化学。但现在,这一切是由一个天生的优秀化学家创造出来的。尽管如此。他创建了一家强大的公司,一只伟大的成长股,等等。而它最终在破产中抹去了股东的价值。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. And the 100 years I've lived has been even more remarkable. That's pretty much all of modern biology, modern medicine, and modern industrial civilization, modern chemistry. Just imagine what the world would be like, you know, we had photographs for 100 years before we had modern chemistry. And but now it was done by a guy who was a natural, very good chemist. But nonetheless. He created a mighty company, a great growth stock, and so forth. And it finally wiped out the shareholders in bankruptcy.

贝基·奎克伊士曼柯达?

BECKY QUICKEastman Kodak?

查理·芒格是的,伊士曼柯达,这是一个确确实实发生过的惊人故事。当然,它帮助了我。因为如果像老伊士曼这样才华横溢的人,以及像老伊士曼这样雇佣了众多才华横溢的人,都能将公司带入破产,那么我认为,即使尽了最大努力,能力稍逊的人也很容易最终将大公司带入破产。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes, Eastman Kodak, which is an amazing story that did happen. And, of course, it helped me. Because if somebody as brilliant as old Eastman, and somebody who hired as much many brilliant people as old Eastman did, could take the company into bankruptcy, I figure that lesser people could easily take big companies into bankruptcy eventually, in spite of their best efforts.

贝基·奎克你从中吸取了什么教训?

BECKY QUICKWhat's the lesson you took out?

查理·奎克嗯,那就是要在任何事上优秀到足以赚钱,将会非常困难。这就是我从中学到的教训。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, it was going to be very difficult to be excellent enough at anything to make any money. That's the lesson I took out of it.

贝基·奎克你给人们的人生建议有一部分是相当基础的东西。但如果你遵循它,那是非常棒的建议。我想你的第一个是,保持低期望。第二个是,拥有良好的幽默感。第三个是,让自己被朋友和家人的爱包围。很明显。

BECKY QUICKPart of the advice that you give people in life is pretty basic stuff. But if you follow it, it's really excellent advice. I think your first one is, is have low expectations. The second one is, have a good sense of humor. And the third one is-surround yourself with love of friends and family. Obviously.

查理·芒格是的。当然。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. Sure.

贝基·奎克——不过我很难想象你什么时候设定了低期望。

BECKY QUICK--I have a hard time thinking of a time when you set your expectations low though.

查理·芒格嗯,我确实这么做。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. Well, I did.

贝基·奎克怎么做的?

BECKY QUICKHow so?

查理·芒格好,我给你举个例子。这个例子再合适不过了。我在奥马哈长大,还是个小男孩。我父亲有一个最好的朋友,住在两个街区之外。他有两个儿子,我的年龄正好在他们俩中间。小埃迪·戴维斯是个机械天才。他能飞快地把任何东西拆开,然后完美地重新组装起来。同时他一天到晚都在读书。他就坐在那儿看书,别的什么都不干。他是个书生气很重的小天才,但有着超强的机械能力。老埃迪·戴维斯,也就是他的父亲,是内布拉斯加大学数学教授的儿子的儿子。他没多少钱。那时候——他家人口很多。他——什么都能干。他看东西是三维的。显然,任何需要机械能力的事,我都比不上这父子俩。你知道的,我无论付出多少努力、下多少功夫,都永远不可能像戴维斯博士那样会甩竿钓鱼,或者做别的什么。我就是没那种天赋。所以我决定彻底远离那些需要和像小埃迪·戴维斯、老埃迪·戴维斯这样的人在他们擅长的领域竞争的生意。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, let me give you an example. It's perfect. Here I am, a little boy growing up in Omaha. And my father – one of my father's best friends living two blocks away. And he has two sons. And I'm right in the middle of the age of his two sons. Eddie Davis, Jr. Is a mechanical genius. He could take anything apart quickly and put it back together again perfectly. And he also reads books all the time. And that's really all he ever does is sit around reading books. He's a very bookish little genius with vast mechanical ability. And Eddie Davis, Sr., his father, was the son of the leading mathematics professor at the University of Nebraska. And he didn't have any money. In those days-- he had a huge family. He--could do anything. He saw things in three dimensions. And he and it was quite obvious that anything that required mechanical ability, I would not be as good as the two Davises. You know, I just no amount of effort or work was ever gonna do it, make me into a fly caster like Dr. Davis was or anything else. I just didn't have that kind of ability. And so I decided to stay the hell out of businesses where I would compete with people like Eddie Davis, Jr. and Eddie Davis, Sr. in their strong suit.

贝基·奎克就是了解自己的能力边界。

BECKY QUICKKnowing your competencies.

查理·芒格了解自己的能力圈。没错。这让我完全远离了那些行业。但我并没有那么满意。如果我当初更聪明一点、更快一点,我本可以做得更好。

CHARLIE MUNGERKnowing your circle of competency. Right. And that kept me away from those businesses totally. but I'm not all that pleased. I could of done a lot better if I had been a little smarter, a little quicker.

贝基·奎克你在说什么呀?你看,你一生做的每件事都成功了。你还有什么想做得不一样的地方吗?

BECKY QUICKWhat are you talking about? Like, you've had success in everything you've done in life. What would you like to do differently.

查理·芒格嗯,不,但我本可以有几千亿美元,而不是几百亿美元。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, no, but I might have had multiple trillions instead of multiple billions.

贝基·奎克你会坐在这里琢磨这事儿吗?你会做得有什么不同?

BECKY QUICKDo you sit around thinking about this? What would you have done differently?

查理·芒格是的,我确实会想。我想过。是的,我想过,想过因为自己不够聪明或不够努力,差点错过了什么。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes, I do think about it. I think about it. Yes, I think about it, about what I nearly missed by being just not quite smart enough or hardworking enough.

PART TWO

PART TWO

贝基·奎克如果你能回到过去,回顾过去 100 年,你会改变什么?

BECKY QUICKWhat would you have changed if you could go back and look at the last 100 years?

查理·芒格嗯,我当然会回去做一些改变。知道现在会发生什么,再回去做,那是十拿九稳的事。我知道我会成为全世界最富有的人。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I'd go back and make some, of course. It'd be a cinch to go back and do it knowing what was gonna happen now. I know I would be the richest man on Earth.

贝基·奎克那你错过了什么?有没有什么地方,你本该转弯却没转?

BECKY QUICKWell, what did you miss? What – was there something where you zigged where you could've zagged?

查理·芒格嗯,首先,我会更早开始。我会让复利滚动得更久。我会让复利的效率更高。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I would've started earlier for one thing. And I would've compounded longer. And I would've compounded better.

贝基·奎克所以是存更多钱?

BECKY QUICKSo saved even more?

查理·芒格当然。而且如果我能活到 100 岁,我最终会更富有。我一直在意识到一个事实:我基本上把事情搞砸了。老天给我的这副牌,我本可以打得更好,相当轻松就能打得更好。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd of course I'd be – would've ended up richer if I was gonna live to be 100 years old. And I constantly am aware of the facts that I basically screwed up. Given the hand I dealt, I could've done a lot better, quite easily done a lot better.

贝基·奎克但你并不是一个在自己身上花很多钱的人。我们现在住在一栋漂亮的房子里。但这房子你已经住了 70 年了。

BECKY QUICKBut you are not somebody who spends a lot of money on yourself. We are living in – we're sitting here in a beautiful house. But this is a house that you've lived in for 70 years.

查理·芒格我知道。但沃伦住——

CHARLIE MUNGERI know. But Warren's lived—

贝基·奎克你可以搬家,花更多的钱。

BECKY QUICKYou could've moved and spent more.

查理·芒格——他的房子也住了 60 年了。我们很相似。但你看,我们都足够聪明,都见过那些富起来的朋友盖了非常豪华的房子。我几乎可以说,在每一个案例里,那些房子都让他们更不快乐,而不是更快乐。

CHARLIE MUNGER—in his house for about 60 years. We're similar. But you see, we're both smart enough to have watched our friends who got rich build these really fancy houses. And I would say in practically every case, they make the person less happy, not happier.

贝基·奎克怎么会这样?

BECKY QUICKHow so?

查理·芒格换句话说,有一栋基本的房子对你有好处。有一栋非常豪华的房子,它适合一次招待 100 个人。这是一件非常昂贵的事。而且它对你并没有多大好处。

CHARLIE MUNGERIn other words, having a basic house really helps you. Having a really fancy house, it's good for entertaining 100 people at once. It's a very expensive thing to do. And it doesn't do you that much good.

贝基·奎克我觉得你多年来说过的一句话,至少我是这么听说的,就是:保持富有不难,保持理智才难。

BECKY QUICKI think one of the things you've said along the years, at least this is what I've been told, is that it's not staying rich that's difficult, it's staying sane.

查理·芒格对,当然。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, of course.

贝基·奎克我的意思是,这占据了你人生很大一部分,你很多人生经验和建议都是——

BECKY QUICKI mean, that's a lot of your life, a lot of your life and advice is—

查理·芒格避开陷阱。

CHARLIE MUNGERAvoiding traps.

贝基·奎克反过来想,想清楚你不想去的地方。

BECKY QUICKInvert and try and figure out where you don't wanna be.

查理·芒格对。然后——当然是这样。这就是每个有头脑的人的生活。我认识的所有人,以及我现在的朋友,他们从来都没变成酒鬼。那太危险了。他们不会靠近那种东西,如果它能把那么多优秀的人拖进深渊。而且我注意到,随着年龄越来越大,所有过早出现心脏问题的男性,都有一个共同点。他们都抽很多烟。所以我在比较早的时候就能看到这一点。而且,我试着去学抽烟,这样我就能像高中里其他酷孩子一样。我试图毁掉自己的生活,但抽烟让我恶心。所以我就说,“去他妈的。”那些把我引向这该死东西的人,学着抽会让人恶心。我说,“我可没兴趣忍受一堆恶心劲儿来抽烟。”所以我就没抽。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. And then but-- yes, of course. That's what everybody's life is with any sense. All the people I know and my friends now, they never would've become alcoholics. It was too dangerous. They would-- they don't get near it if it takes that many fine people into deep trouble. And I noticed as I got older and older that all the people that had very early heart trouble, the males that had very early heart trouble had one thing in common. They all smoked a lotta the cigarettes. So I can see that coming fairly early. And each other – I tried to learn to smoke so I could be a cool kid like the other kids in high school. I tried to ruin my life, but it nauseated me. And so I said, "The hell with this." People that lured me into the goddamn thing, you're gonna get nauseated by learning to do it. And I said, "I'm not interested enough in going through a lotta nausea that I want to smoke." So I just didn't smoke.

贝基·奎克但你偶尔也喝酒,对吧?

BECKY QUICKAnd you did drink from time to time, right?

查理·芒格嗯,当然。但我又没有——我甚至有过几次喝得过量。但我总是——我家里有足够的酒鬼和准酒鬼,这让我对喝酒很担心。所以我喝酒一直非常谨慎。我确实偶尔喝醉然后吐。那种恶心感也让我戒掉了酒。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah sure. But I didn't again, I was and I even drank to excess a few times. But I was always – there were enough alcoholics and near alcoholics in my own family that made me worry about liquor. And so I was always very cautious about drinking any liquor. Now I did occasionally get drunk and throw up. That gave me the nausea which enabled me to give up liquor.

贝基·奎克每个人都想知道秘诀是什么。对你来说秘诀是什么?你是刻意去——

BECKY QUICKEverybody wants to know what's the secret. What is the secret for you? What – did you conscientiously go—

查理·芒格嗯,我不知道有什么秘诀。我只是避开了常见的失败方式。因为我人生中的游戏就是避开所有常见的失败方式。你告诉我打扑克的错误方式,我会避开它。你告诉我做别的事的错误方式,我也会避开它。当然,我避开了很多,因为我太谨慎了。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I don't know the secret. I avoided the standard ways of failing. Because my game in life was always to avoid all standard ways of failing. You teach me the wrong way to play poker and I will avoid it. You teach me the wrong way to do something else, I will avoid it. And, of course, I've avoided a lot, because I'm so cautious.

贝基·奎克但你会做你喜欢的事。比如,你会吃花生脆糖。

BECKY QUICKBut you do things you like. Like, you'll eat peanut brittle.

查理·芒格对。但那没那么重要。我喝健怡可乐。我确信健怡可乐会缩短我的寿命。但我根本不在乎——如果最后一周是躺在那儿不省人事,那正是我只想要美好人生的方式。健怡可乐也许帮我把那段跳过去了。谁知道呢?它在帮我把最后一个月跳过去,而不是第一个月。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. But it doesn't matter that much. I drink Diet Coke. I'm sure Diet Coke shortens my life a little. But I don't give a damn if they – the last week of lying there unconscious is the way It's only the good part of life I want anyway. And Diet Coke may be helping me skip it. But who knows? It's helping me skip the last month, not the first month.

贝基·奎克但如果别人想知道最好的生活方式是什么,你会告诉他们避开疯狂的事,避开那些把你拖下水的事?

BECKY QUICKBut if other people wanna know what the best way to live is, you would just tell them avoid the crazy things, avoid the things that take you down?

查理·芒格对。不惜一切代价避开疯狂。疯狂比你想象的普遍得多。很容易滑入疯狂。避开它,避开它,避开它。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. Avoid crazy at all costs. Crazy is way more common than you think. It's easy to slip into crazy. Just avoid it, avoid it, avoid it.

贝基·奎克我觉得你还说过一句话:“无论你是什么样的人,财富和年龄都会让你变得更像那样。”

BECKY QUICKI think another thing you've said is, "Whatever you are wealth and age will make you more so."

查理·芒格对。当然。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. Sure.

PART THREE

PART THREE

查理·芒格我小时候,比其他所有小男孩带的钱都多。我经常在学校操场上弹玻璃弹子,玩彩色纸屑弹子来赢钱。

CHARLIE MUNGERAs a little boy, I carried more money than all the other little boys. I used to shoot agates in the schoolyard to make money playing confetti agates.

贝基·奎克弹珠?

BECKY QUICKMarbles?

查理·芒格我确保——对,弹珠。但玛瑙弹珠是最值钱的。我绝不想输掉自己那套好又值钱的收藏,你知道,如果有哪个家伙弹弹珠比我协调的话。所以我从来不为钱玩,除非我能比别的男孩玩得更好。

CHARLIE MUNGERI made sure-- yeah, marbles. But agates were the most valuable marble. And I never wanted to lose my good, valuable collection, you know, if some guy was more coordinated than I was at shooting marbles. So I would never play for stakes unless I could play better than the other boy.

贝基·奎克这几乎是你一生的习惯。你不玩——

BECKY QUICKThat's kind of been a habit you've made throughout life. You don't play--

查理·芒格对,正是。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes, exactly.

贝基·奎克——你赢不了的扑克。

BECKY QUICK--poker with someone you're gonna lose with.

查理·芒格正是。正是。我并不是总能安排环境。我经常只是恰好掉进去。但我有和傻瓜对手玩的经历。

CHARLIE MUNGERExactly. Exactly. I didn't always arrange the circumstances. I just fell into them frequently. But I got to play with competitors who were dummkopfs.

贝基·奎克那些人不会以同样的方式评估赔率?

BECKY QUICKPeople who weren't assessing the odds quite the same way?

查理·芒格不。不,他们评估赔率的方式,不像那么容易评估赔率的方式。而且你学会了,当老师教排列组合时你听了。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo. No, they weren't assessing the odds the way it was easy to assess the odds. And you learned and you paid attention when the teacher was teaching you permutations and combinations.

贝基·奎克但你做很多事情也是在挑选出击时机。我的意思是,我听你说过这叫“屁股坐着投资”。

BECKY QUICKA lot of what you do though also is picking your shots. I mean, I think you call it, "Sit on your ass investing."

查理·芒格对,当然。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, sure.

贝基·奎克就是等那些又大又胖的球飞过来,你大部分时间不动手。因为——

BECKY QUICKWhere you wait for the big, fat pitches to come in, you don't do a lot over time. Because--

查理·芒格对,没错。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, that's correct.

贝基·奎克所以你觉得现在赚钱更难了?

BECKY QUICKSo you think it's harder to make money now?

查理·芒格嗯,这个问题很有意思,也很重要。当然,难度更大。难度大到超乎你的想象。觉得难的那些人,就是让沃伦变得那么富有的那些人——本·格雷厄姆和他的同事多德,在哥伦比亚大学开的一门该死的辅修课。格雷厄姆做的最有意思的一件事,是他教导人们,你可以找到一些好东西,并且长期持有。但对他来说,长期也就是几年,不是几十年。他带着一个规模不大的投资合伙公司,靠激励机制之类的做法,就这么干了 40 到 50 年。他的投资者,大多不算很富有,跟着他干得相当不错。他拿走自己那份之后,他们拿到的那一份收益,扣完费用后也比别人高。所以他提供了一项有价值的产品。他还教给你——你买的东西,可能是个烂生意,但只要足够便宜,每股资产够多,那也还行。所以你至少得到了相当于你支付价格两倍的资产。他就在好公司和烂公司里挑最好的东西,来回倒腾。这就是他的体系。他干了 50 年,客户回报不错。后来他太有名了,部分原因是沃伦·巴菲特和沃伦·巴菲特的成功,所有人都想照搬这一套。当然,随着大家一拥而上,都想当个小格雷厄姆,竞争就越来越激烈。现在就是这样。格雷厄姆当年靠大萧条捞到的那些低垂的果实,已经没了。如果你只是在一堆被低估的烂生意里跳来跳去,还要付掉所有成本,对真正掏钱的人来说,根本赚不到值得折腾的收益。现在就是这么回事。但在格雷厄姆那个年代,这是最好的办法。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, that's a very interesting question. And it's a very important question. And of course it's harder. It's so much harder you can't believe it. The people that have found it harder are the people that made Warren so rich, Ben Graham and his colleague, Dodd in a damned adjunct course at Columbia. What Ben Graham did that was so interesting is that he taught that you could find a few good things and stay with them for a very long time. But a long time to him was a few years. It wasn't a few decades. And he did that for, like, 40 or 50 years in a little investment partnership with incentives and so on. And his investors, who were by and large not very rich, did very well with him. After he got his share, they got a good cut that was higher than what other people got after fees. And so he delivered a valuable product. And he taught you got things-- it could be a lousy business, but if they were cheap enough, they were still all right if they had enough assets per share. So you're getting at least twice as many assets as you were paying for. And he just floated around from the best available stuff among companies good and bad. That was his system. And he worked for 50 years. His clients had good returns. Well, after he became so famous, partly with the help of Warren Buffett and Warren Buffett's success, everybody tried to do the same thing. And, of course, as everybody crowded in, trying to be a little Ben Graham, it got more and more competitive. And that's what's happened now. And the low hanging fruit that Ben Graham had a lot of because of the Great Depression has gone away. And if you just try and float from one undervalued, bad business into another, and pay all the costs and what, it just doesn't work well enough for the people that actually foot him the money to be worth bothering with. That's the way it works now. But in Graham's time, it was the best way there was.

贝基·奎克嗯,你的升级版就是去找好生意。

BECKY QUICKWell, your upgrade on that was to just look for good businesses.

查理·芒格我立刻就看出格雷厄姆是错的。

CHARLIE MUNGERI saw immediately that Graham was wrong.

贝基·奎克对。你找的是——

BECKY QUICKRight. And you look for—

查理·芒格对,你手里——真正的钱来自那些真正伟大的公司,它们能带着你一直往上涨,涨啊涨,涨啊涨,涨啊涨。我和沃伦刚开始那点微不足道的小本钱时,我可没想过我们能做到 1 亿美元,更别提几千亿了。这简直是奇迹。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, you had – the real money was in the really great companies, which carried you up, and up, and up, and up, and up. I did not anticipate when Warren and I were starting with our little, piddly start that we'd ever get to $100 million, much less several hundred billion. It was an amazing occurrence.

贝基·奎克发生了什么你没想到的事?是什么促成了你们的成功?

BECKY QUICKWhat happened that you didn't anticipate? What led to that success that you had?

查理·芒格嗯,我们比大多数人没那么疯狂一点儿,也比大多数人没那么蠢一点儿。这确实帮了我们。另外,我们跑的时间比大多数人长得多,因为我们活到了 90 多岁。这给了我们一条长长的跑道,从我们那点可怜的小起步,一路跑到 90 年代。真正发生的就是这两件事。当然,我们随着时间推移变聪明了。我们进了越来越好的公司。我们越来越明白可能发生的坏事。你知道它们多么容易悄悄溜进来。我们甚至比年轻时更会避开它们——老了之后。然后,一切就这么成了。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we got a little less crazy than most people and a little less stupid than most people. And that really helped us. Then in addition, we were given this much longer time to run than most people, because something kept us alive into our 90s. And that gave us a long track from our little, piddling start all the way to the 90s. Those are the two things that really happened. And, of course, we wised up over time. We got into better and better companies. We understood more and more of the bad things that could happen. You know how easy they could creep in. And we avoided them even more – like when we were old than we did when we were young. And it all worked.

贝基·奎克我记得 2015 年,伯克希尔成立 50 周年的时候,你在致股东信里写道,你们当时有 600 亿美元的现金储备。你当时觉得这笔现金会随着时间减少,因为你能不断买更多东西。现在你们现金接近 1600 亿美元。有没有机会用这笔钱做一笔真正的大收购?你觉得能看到这样的机会吗?

BECKY QUICKI think back in 2015, for the 50th anniversary of Berkshire, you wrote in the shareholders letter that among many other things you had a $60 billion pile of cash at that point. You thought that pile of cash would decline over time, because you'd be able to buy more and more things. Now you've got almost $160 billion in cash. Is there an opportunity for a really big purchase with that? And do you think you'll see one?

查理·芒格嗯,当然有机会做一笔比那些没有 1600 亿美元的人能做的更大得多的收购。我们有 1600 亿美元现金,加上我们当之无愧的顶级信用评级。谁他妈有这条件?没几个。是的,但具体会是什么,我没办法告诉你。肯定不能太小。因为不管多好,以我们现在的规模,太小了根本掀不起什么波澜。所以我们得等一个大东西出现,把我们的现金用光,再借点钱。但谁比一个手里攥着 1600 亿美元现金、还有几十年买便宜货历史的人更有可能找到机会呢?我不觉得这事儿没希望。可能得换不同的人来干。你知道,下一次,我们可能没法再从老柠檬里多挤出点柠檬汁了。我们也许得——他们也许得去榨新柠檬,意思是新的人来做决策。但谁能比那些亲眼目睹了早年整个过程、看到它效果有多好、手里还握着 1600 亿美元现金遗产的人做得更好呢?

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, of course there's an opportunity for a purchase a lot bigger than people can make who don't have $160 billion. We have $160 billion in cash, plus a great credit rating we deserve. And who in the hell has that? Not very many. Yes, but what it's gonna be, I can't tell you. It can't be anything too small. Because it doesn't matter how good it is, we're of a size now where too small just doesn't move the needle very much. So we have – we need something big to come along, and use up all our cash, and some borrowing. But who's more likely to find something than a guy who has $160 billion in cash, plus a long history of buying bargains? I don't think it's hopeless. It may have to be done by some different people. You know that next time, we may not be able just to squeeze a little more lemon juice out of the old lemons. We may be able to – they may have to squeeze some new lemons, meaning new people may have to make the decisions. But who can make them better than somebody that has watched the early process all through all those years, and seeing how well it works, and who starts with a little legacy of $160 billion in cash?

贝基·奎克所以你指的是格雷格·阿贝尔、阿吉特·贾恩。

BECKY QUICKSo you're talking about Greg Abel, Ajit Jain.

查理·芒格对,任何一个——

CHARLIE MUNGERYes, any of—

贝基·奎克泰德和托德。

BECKY QUICKTed and Todd.

查理·芒格——或者还没确定的人。伯克希尔展示的主要绝招,是我所说的“伍登效应”的力量。伍登是整整一个时代最著名的篮球教练。你想明白他到底干了什么,我和沃伦这种人自然就懂了。他把大约 90% 的比赛时间集中在七名球员身上。其他人都只是这些人的陪练。这成了打篮球的绝佳制胜体系,因为你找出最好的球员,然后把大量比赛时间集中给他们。上场时间越多,表现越好越好越好。你在比赛中学习,这是光练投篮永远学不到的。所以他把所有比赛时间都集中在他最好的球员身上。简单的想法。伯克希尔就是这么干的。

CHARLIE MUNGER– or somebody not yet identified. The main trick that Berkshire shows is the power of what I call the Wooden effect. And Wooden was the most famous basketball coach of a whole era. And you figure out what the hell he really did, which of course somebody like Warren and me, we just automatically do it. He concentrated about 90% of the playing time in seven players. And everybody else was just a sparring partner for the people. And that turned out a great system for winning at basketball, because you identified your best player, and concentrated so much of the playing time on your best player. And more playing creates better, better, better. You learn by playing in a way you can never learn just by shooting practice baskets. So he concentrated all this playing time on his best players. Simple idea. That's what Berkshire did.

贝基·奎克你还谈到了一些你从伯克希尔一路上的一些投资中找到的快乐。我觉得《华盛顿邮报》是一笔很棒的投资。

BECKY QUICKYou talked about some of the joy you've found with some of the investments Berkshire's made along the way. I think Washington Post was a great one.

查理·芒格那当然。谁不喜欢跟非常可敬的人一起,愉快地享受极致的成功呢?这就是我和沃伦一直在做的事。嗯,这当然很有趣。伯克希尔历史上有意思的一点是,什么把伯克希尔最初的 3 亿美元净资产变成了 30 亿美元净资产。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, of course. Who doesn't like to happily enjoy extreme success accumulated with people who are extremely admirable? That's what Warren and I have gotten to do. Well, of course that's a lot of fun. What was interesting about Berkshire's history is what turned the first $300 million of Berkshire net worth into the first $3 billion of Berkshire net worth.

贝基·奎克是什么?

BECKY QUICKWhat was it?

查理·芒格嗯,是蓝筹印花、喜诗糖果、《布法罗新闻》报纸,还有阿吉特·贾恩加入我们后早期的保险业务。所以就是——所有事情同时奏效了。我们从这些不怎么样的、微不足道的生意里赚到了令人咋舌的利润。这是一件非常了不起的事。里面也有一些运气成分。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd well, it was blue chip, stamps, and See's Candy, and the Buffalo News newspaper, and the early insurance operations under Ajit Jain when he came to us. And so it just – everything worked at once. And we made these unholy profits out of these piddling businesses that weren't that good. And it was a very remarkable thing. And there was some luck involved.

贝基·奎克沃伦说过,他这辈子最烂的交易就是买下伯克希尔·哈撒韦本身,那几座纺织厂。

BECKY QUICKWarren has said that his worst trade ever was buying Berkshire Hathaway itself, the mills.

查理·芒格嗯,没错。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, sure.

贝基·奎克你最烂的交易是什么?

BECKY QUICKWhat was your worst trade?

查理·芒格嗯,我最烂的交易是为芒格家族买入阿里巴巴的股票,那是一家相当不错的公司。但我觉得它被过度炒作了。马云在跟中国政府打交道时犯了错。我有过一些烂——每个人都会有一些烂交易。谁都有不走运的一天。最伟大的网球选手有时候到中心球场也会发挥失常。这种事常有。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, my worst trade was buying a block for the Munger family in Alibaba, which is a pretty good company. But I think it got over-hyped. And Jack Ma was – made mistakes in dealing with the Chinese government. I had some bad – everybody has some bad ones. You have an off day. The greatest tennis player goes out there some days to the center court and has a bad day. It happens.

贝基·奎克我觉得人们有时从错误中学到的比从成功中学到的更多。

BECKY QUICKI think people learn more from their mistakes sometimes than their successes.

查理·芒格对,哪怕是倒霉的日子里也是。是的。但真正重要的是,要知道你可能会碰上非常糟糕的一天。不要把自己的生活过成那种糟糕一天就能毁掉你的样子。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, on their bad days even. Yes. But really, it's knowing you can have a very bad day. Do not live your life in such a fashion that a bad day can kill you.

贝基·奎克在投资方面,这意味着什么?确保不用杠杆?

BECKY QUICKWhich means what when it comes to investing? Making sure you don't use leverage?

查理·芒格嗯,他们想打全垒打。就像棒球手每次挥棒都想打出本垒打。伟大的本垒打选手绝不会挥棒打每一个球。他们会等一个自己能真正驾驭的球。伟大的股票交易员也是这样。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, they aim for the fences. It's like a hitter at baseball who tries to hit a home run on every pitch. The great home runners do not remotely swing at every pitch. They wait for one that they can really handle. And that's what great stock traders do too.

PART FOUR

PART FOUR

贝基·奎克查理,我们聊一聊官僚体制。因为你确实注意到了官僚体制的问题,不管是大公司还是政府。

BECKY QUICKCharlie, let's talk a little bit about bureaucracies. Because you have duly noted the problems with bureaucracies, whether it be a big company, whether it be the government.

查理·芒格我何止是注意到了。

CHARLIE MUNGERHave I ever.

贝基·奎克对。那你打算怎么解决那些臃肿的官僚机构?先从联邦政府开始吧。

BECKY QUICKRight. So how would you fix some of the bloated bureaucracies out there? Let's start with the federal government.

查理·芒格这属于我的“太难”堆。我没办法告诉你该怎么做。这真的非常难。因为你要面对两个问题:A,想清楚怎么做;B,把它做成。要把这两个问题都解决,真的——就像在珠穆朗玛峰顶上选个高难度的攀登点,然后说“哦,我一天就能轻松爬上去”。你知道吧?你不可能轻松爬上去。那需要好几天。

CHARLIE MUNGERThat comes in my too hard pile. I can't tell you how to do that. That would be really hard. Because you have the problem, A, of figuring it out and, B, getting it done. And to solve both those problems are really – it's like picking the high pick on Everest and saying, "Oh, I'll waltz up there in a day." You know? You aren't gonna waltz up there. It takes several days to do.

贝基·奎克最近有位总统候选人说,他的解决办法就是把联邦政府里所有社保号尾数是奇数的人全炒了。这听起来像个好办法吗?

BECKY QUICKThere was a presidential candidate who recently said that his solution for that would just be to fire everybody in the federal government whose social security number ends with an odd number. Does that sound like a good way to fix it?

查理·芒格不。一点也不好。太武断了。也许你需要比那更大的动作。也许你永远也做不到。也许这东西就跟衰老一样,我们永远摆脱不了。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo. It does not. It's too arbitrary. And it may be that you need some bigger fix than that. And it may be you're never gonna get it too. And it may be that it's just something like old age that we're never gonna get rid of.

贝基·奎克但你仍然相信政府是必要的?

BECKY QUICKBut you are still a believer in the need for a government?

查理·芒格当然。我——说到底,我所热爱的是人类文明的进步。这让我兴奋。有意思的是,我的名字源自的祖父,以及我的祖母,他们俩的想法完全一样。那本伟大的道德书——他们带我去长老会教堂,诸如此类。但他们真正想教我的,是丹尼尔·笛福创作的《鲁滨逊漂流记》的传奇故事,因为那让他们激动。这对我当然有好处。我从未从中走出来。我仍然遵循鲁滨逊·克鲁索的生活方式。那就是我所做的。我模仿鲁滨逊·克鲁索。然后,我很幸运,有家族另一边的祖先。我非常擅长从死人身上学习东西。这是每个人都该学会的。所以,我另一边有一位祖父,他的生活从未与我的生活重叠。但英厄姆祖父不停地谈论早年岁月,以及他是如何克服所有那些艰难的。他说,现在回头看,那看起来很容易,“但当时真的很难,我想让你知道。”他说,“回顾我的一生,你们这些孙子孙女必须意识到,”那是他版本的《鲁滨逊漂流记》,他告诉每个孙子孙女,“当他们给你真正机会时,世界不会经常给你。你一生中只会收到三四次去派柜台(pie counter)的邀请。当你收到邀请时,看在上帝的份上,别只拿一小份。”他基本上说的是,“当你确信自己正确时,加杠杆。”这当然是个好建议。但难点在于确信自己正确。你怎么能确信自己正确?嗯,你做不到。关键就在这里。你不能经常做到。人生中有那么几次,即使你是英厄姆祖父或沃伦·巴菲特,你也只有不多的几次机会去派柜台。如果从沃伦·巴菲特的人生中拿掉他最重要的十次去派柜台的机会,那么他的整个记录会像一堆屎。我们足够聪明,在受邀去派柜台时,会拿上一大份。不过,我们当时拿的份额比我们本可轻松应付的要小得多。伯克希尔现在很容易就能值现在的两倍。而我们本会承担的多余风险几乎为零。我们只需要多一点唾手可得的杠杆就行。

CHARLIE MUNGEROf course. I'm – you get right down to it, what I am is a lover of the progress of civilization. That turns me on. Oddly enough, the man whose name I bear, my father's father, and my father's mother, both thought exactly the same way. And the great moral book, they took me to church in the Presbyterian church and all that. But when they really wanted to teach me something because if it's turned them on, it was the legend of Robinson Crusoe, created by Daniel Defoe. And of course it was good for me. And of course I never got over it. I'm still following Robinson Crusoe's method of going at life. That's what I did. I imitated Robinson Crusoe. Then I was lucky with my ancestors on the other side of the family. I am very good at learning things from dead people. That's what everybody should learn. And so I had one grandfather on the other side whose life never overlapped mine. But Grandfather Ingham just talked endlessly about the early days and how he'd surmounted all these hardships. And he says that it looks pretty easy, "looking back at it with retrospect, but it was damn hard, I want you to know." And he said, "And in reviewing my life, what your grandchildren have to realize, it was his version of Robinson Crusoe, he told every grandchild, "Is when they give you a real opportunity, the world's not gonna do it very often. And you're only gonna get three or four of these invitations to the pie counter. And when you get your invitation, for God sakes, don't take a small helping." He basically said, "Lever up when you're sure you're right." And of course that's good advice. But be sure you're right is what makes it hard. How can you be sure you're right? Well, but you can't. That's the point. You can't do it very often. There's a few times in life that even if you're Grandpa Ingham or Warren Buffett, you only get a few trips to the pie counter. If you take out of Warren Buffett's life the ten most important trips to the pie counter, there were – his whole record would look like dung. We knew enough to take a good helping when we were offered a trip to the pie counter. Now we did take way smaller a helping than we could've easily handled. Berkshire could easily be worth twice what it is now. And the extra risk we would've taken would've been practically nothing. All we had to do is just a little more leverage that was easily available.

贝基·奎克事后看来,考虑到潜在风险,你庆幸自己没有这样做?

BECKY QUICKIn hindsight, you're glad you didn't just from the potential risk?

查理·芒格这是个有趣的例子。我们没那样做的原因是,我们年轻时辜负那些信任我们的人的想法,让我们耿耿于怀。如果我们损失了四分之三的钱,我们仍然非常富有。但这对每个股东来说并非如此。损失四分之三的钱会是个巨大的失望。所以我们在处理股东的钱时非常谨慎。如果沃伦和我自己拥有伯克希尔,没有任何我们认识的股东,我们会赚更多。我们会用更多杠杆。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's an interesting example. The reason we didn't is the idea of disappointing a lot of people who had trusted us when we were young under a thing that left us. If we lost three quarters of our money, we were still very rich. That wasn't true of every shareholder. Losing three quarters of the money would've been a big letdown. So we were very cautious in dealing with our shareholders' money. If Warren and I had owned Berkshire without any shareholders that we knew, we would've made more. We would've used more leverage.

贝基·奎克查理,沃伦·巴菲特曾说过,他可以通过简单的一条规则来解决华盛顿的预算赤字问题:如果国家赤字超过 GDP 的 3%,任何国会成员都不能有资格连任。

BECKY QUICKCharlie, Warren Buffett has said that he could fix the budget deficit problem in Washington by simply saying that any member of Congress couldn't be eligible for reelection if the national deficit was more than 3% of the GDP.

查理·芒格是的。这种事情在一些已经摆脱困境的地方做过。而且奏效了。这并不是说物理上做不到。他在这方面当然是对的。这是可以做到的。至于是否会被做到,沃伦·巴菲特或我都无法告诉你。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. That kind of thing has been done in some places that have gotten out of trouble. And it has worked. It isn't that it can't physically be done. He's certainly right about that. It can be done. Whether it will be done, neither Warren Buffett or I can tell you.

贝基·奎克但这是合适的解决方案吗?这只是建立正确的激励——

BECKY QUICKBut is that the proper situation? It's just setting up the right incentives to—

查理·芒格嗯,我们可能会走到一个不得不如是的地步,我们把局面管理得太糟,以至于显然必须回归更像亚当·斯密那样的方式,接受不平等,而不是接受贫困。相比贫困,我更喜欢不平等得多。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we may come to a place where we simply have to, where we've mismanaged the place where it's obvious that we have to go back to something that's more like Adam Smith and just take the inequality instead of the poverty. I like inequality a lot better than I like poverty.

贝基·奎克我的意思是,现代货币理论(Modern Monetary Theory)目前是否已失控?你担心吗?

BECKY QUICKI mean, is this modern monetary theory that's gotten out of control at this point, do you worry?

查理·芒格当然,现代货币理论。现代货币理论是债务水平的一种提升,过去这种债务水平只在战争期间才会出现,现在却可以常规地制造出来,以避免任何因经济秩序最底层某些家庭遭受困难而产生的令人不快的局面。我不确定,如果有些家庭在经济秩序底层没有受到挤压,这个整个该死的系统是否还能运转。这可能是我们通往文明的路径。也可能是我们唯一的路。既然如此,我们就必须在财务上负责,不管感觉好坏,甚至不管它是否奏效,哪怕是暂时性的。也许我们只能这么做。

CHARLIE MUNGEROf course modern monetary theory. Modern monetary theory was a level of indebtedness, which in the past would've happened only during a war, can now be routinely created to avoid any kind of unpleasantness from some families getting squeezed by hardship at the very bottom of the economic order. I'm not sure the whole damn system works when some families aren't being squeezed at the bottom of the economic order. That may be our path to civilization. And may be the only one we've got. In that case, we just have to be financially responsible whether it feels good or not, even whether it works, whether or not on a temporary basis. And maybe we just have to do it.

贝基·奎克谈到年龄,很多公司正在取消强制退休年龄。董事会也在取消很多强制退休规定。但现在有人质疑,乔·拜登和唐纳德·特朗普以 81 岁和 77 岁的年龄是否太老而无法担任总统。

BECKY QUICKIn thinking about age, a lot of companies are getting rid of mandatory retirement ages. Boards are getting rid of a lot of the mandatory retirements. But there are questions right now about whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump are too old to be president at 81 and 77 years old.

查理·芒格嗯,我的意思是,确实,美国每个人当总统都太老了。这也许——以现在的局面来看,这工作也许太难了。事情发展到这一步,也许这就像我表兄得脑膜炎。也许这就是你拿到的手牌。也许你不会有打完它的机会。我们不知道。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I mean, it's true that everyone in America is too old to be president. That maybe – it maybe is too hard a job the way things look. The way things have worked out, we maybe this is like my cousin's meningitis. Maybe this is the hand you're dealt to play. Maybe you're not gonna be allowed to play it out. We don't know.

贝基·奎克你是指年龄因素,还是——

BECKY QUICKYou mean the age factor or –

查理·芒格不,我说的是核战争。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, I'm talking about the atomic warfare.

贝基·奎克核战争?只是指当总统这件事本身?

BECKY QUICKThe atomic warfare, just the idea of being president at all?

查理·芒格是的。如果你有一个庞大的——而且吸烟成瘾的国家,当总统可没多少乐趣。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. If you've got a big – and smoking country, it's not much fun being president.

贝基·奎克所以,那是你真的可以说放在一边、不值得担心的事情。但——

BECKY QUICKSo that is something that really you can say you set it aside and it's not worth worrying about. But –

查理·芒格我不花太多时间在那上面,因为我无法解决。它归入我的“太难”文件。即使我有所有权力,我也解决不了。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't spend much time on it, because I can't fix it. It goes into my too hard file. Even if I had all the power, I couldn't fix it.

PART FIVE

PART FIVE

贝基·奎克你捐出了很多钱。

BECKY QUICKYou've given away a lot of your money.

查理·芒格是的,但不像沃伦那样。超过一半的芒格家产已经传给了后代。所以我做了完全相反的决定,虽然金额较小,但对于我们大部分的钱,我做了完全相反的决定。他大部分的钱都捐了。而且他现在并没有真的捐完。这些钱进入巴菲特基金会,会再持续 100 年。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, but not like Warren. More than half of Munger money has already been passed to the descendants. So I made exactly the opposite, it's a smaller amount of money, but I made exactly the opposite decision for the majority of our money. The majority of his money he gave away. And now he didn't exactly give it away. It goes to Buffett Foundations that go on for another 100 years.

贝基·奎克你的遗愿清单(bucket list)上还有什么吗?你有什么想做的事?

BECKY QUICKIs there anything left on your bucket list? Anything you'd like to do?

查理·芒格嗯,这是个有趣的问题。与我 96 岁时相比,我现在又老又弱,以至于我不再想钓一条 200 磅的金枪鱼了。把那鱼弄上来实在太他妈费劲了。需要太多体力。所以我年轻时愿意花任何代价去钓一条 200 磅的金枪鱼,但我从未钓到过。现在,即使有机会,我也会拒绝去。我甚至不会出海去追它们。有些事你会随着时间而放弃。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, that's an interesting question. I am so old and weak compared to what I was when I was 96 that I no longer want to catch a 200-pound tuna. It's just too god damn much work to get it in. It takes too much physical strength. So I would have paid any amount to catch a 200-pound tuna when I was younger, I never caught one. And now if given the opportunity, I would just decline going. I won't even go out after them. There are things you give up with time.

贝基·奎克你还是很活跃的。你的社交日程很忙。你用 Zoom。你吃早餐和午餐。

BECKY QUICKYou're pretty active. You've got a busy social schedule. You're on Zoom. You have breakfasts and lunch.

查理·芒格嗯,我喜欢这样。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell I like it that way.

贝基·奎克是的。

BECKY QUICKYeah.

查理·芒格那是我心目中适合我的晚年。我并没计划,它就那么发生了。当它发生时,我欢迎它。我非常擅长识别不公平的优势。我在晚年得到了不公平的优势,就像我在不老时得到不公平的优势一样,当它们来临时,我就抓住它们。砰、砰、砰。我从未做过的一次“抓取”是找第三个妻子。太晚了。

CHARLIE MUNGERThat's my idea of a proper old age for me. And I didn't plan it, it just happened. When it happened, I welcomed it. I am very good at recognizing unfair advantages. And I got unfair advantages in old age, the way I got unfair advantages in not old age and when they came, I just grabbed them. Boom, boom, boom. One grab I never made was for a third wife. Too late.

贝基·奎克为什么?

BECKY QUICKWhy?

查理·芒格太晚了。对有些人来说,这是必需品。他们在婚姻中比在婚姻外舒适得多,以至于他们真的需要婚姻才能成为完整的人。他们的天性就是如此。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's too late. There are people for whom it's a necessity. They're so much more comfortable in marriage than they are outside of it that they really need it to be human. It's just the way they're put together.

贝基·奎克你和第二任妻子南希的伙伴关系。

BECKY QUICKYour partnership with Nancy, your second wife.

查理·芒格是的,56 年——52 年的婚姻。那是一段很长的婚姻。她活到了——一直活到 86 岁,那算是长寿了。现在,期间有一些艰难的时期,但大多数人的人生都有一些艰难时期。她的艰难时期出现在非常接近终点的时候。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes, 56-- 52-year-old marriage. It's a long marriage. And she got to live it to the – all the way to 86, which is a long life. And now there were some tough stretches, but most lives have some tough stretches. And hers came very near the end.

贝基·奎克我的意思是,查理,人们看你,可能会认为你极其富有,你一生中有所有这些伟大机会和好事。但你也经历过挣扎。

BECKY QUICKI mean, Charlie, people probably look at you and think you're incredibly wealthy, you've had all these great opportunities and things that have happened in your life. But you've struggled too.

查理·芒格当然。每个人都在挣扎。人生的铁律就是每个人都在挣扎。

CHARLIE MUNGEROf course. Everybody struggles. The iron rule of life is everybody struggles.

贝基·奎克我试着回想,最艰难的时刻可能是什么,以及你是如何度过其中一些的。我的意思是——

BECKY QUICKI try and think back of what the toughest moments might've been and how you got through some of those. And, I mean--

查理·芒格嗯,我们都知道如何度过。伟大的现实主义者也是我所说的“硬撑到底”(soldiering through)的伟大哲学家。如果你硬撑到底,你几乎可以度过任何事情。那是你唯一的选择。你无法让死者复生,你无法治愈垂死的孩子。你无法做各种事情。你必须硬撑过去。你就是以某种方式硬撑过去。如果你必须每天在街上走着哭上几个小时,作为硬撑的一部分,那就哭吧。但你必须——你不能放弃。你可以哭,但你不能放弃。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we all know how to get through them. The great philosophers of realism are also the great philosophers of what I call soldiering through. If you soldier through, you can get through almost anything. And it's your only option. You can't bring back the dead, you can't cure the dying child. You can't do all kinds of things. You have to soldier through it. You just somehow you soldier through. If you have to walk through the streets, crying for a few hours a day as part of the soldiering, go ahead and cry away. But you have to – you can't quit. You can cry all right, but you can't quit.

贝基·奎克你人生中是否曾有那样的时候?

BECKY QUICKYou've had time in your life when you've done that?

查理·芒格当然。我的第一个孩子去世时,我一直在哭。但我知道我无法改变命运。在那个年代,儿童白血病的致死率是 100%。

CHARLIE MUNGERSure. I cried all the time when my first child died. But I knew I couldn't change the fate. In those days, the fatality with childhood leukemia was 100%.

贝基·奎克那是你的儿子泰迪。

BECKY QUICKThat was your son, Teddy.

查理·芒格现在已经没有了。现在的治愈率已经到了百分之九十多。这是一个惊人的进步。想想看,看着白血病治愈率不断提高,给我带来了多少快乐。人类所做的,人类和文明所做的,就是艰难地走过了那些艰难的岁月——那些岁月里,我的表弟汤米被脑膜炎夺走了生命,后来我的儿子泰迪又被白血病夺走了。想象一下治愈的可能。想象一下,对于那些后来出生的家庭来说,基本上能治好这种病。这是一个巨大的成就。你明白我为什么喜欢文明了。对我来说,文明就是人类在过去两个世纪里所做的事情。看着它,是一件好事。

CHARLIE MUNGERThat's gone away. Now the cure rate is way up in the 90s. And it's an amazing development. Think of how much pleasure it's given me to watch the cure rate for leukemia. What mankind did, what mankind and civilization did was soldier through those tough years that took away my cousin, Tommy, from meningitis, and then took away my son Teddy from leukemia. Imagine a cure. Imagine pretty well fixing that disease for families who came into life later. It's a huge achievement. You can see why I like civilization. To me, civilization is what man has done with the last two centuries. And it's been a good thing to watch.

贝基·奎克查理,沃伦·巴菲特很久以前告诉我,你曾跟他说他应该这样活一生:先按自己想要的样子写好讣告,然后按照讣告去活。

BECKY QUICKCharlie, Warren Buffett told me that a long, long time ago you told him he should live his life. He should write his obituary the way he wants it written and then live his life accordingly.

查理·芒格是啊,没错。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, sure.

贝基·奎克我猜你自己也这么做了。

BECKY QUICKI assume you've done the same thing for yourself.

查理·芒格嗯,你知道,我按我活过的方式写好了我的讣告。你想关注它,我没意见。他们想忽略它,我也没意见。到时候我都死了,这又有什么区别呢。所以,但我认为这是个——不是个坏主意。我和沃伦都几十年如一日地住在同一栋房子里。我们所有的朋友都变得有钱了,然后建了更好、更大的房子。我们当然也能——我们都考虑过更大、更好的房子。我孩子很多,这甚至是合理的。但我还是决定不活成一个看起来像威斯特切斯特公爵那样的人。我想避开这种生活。我是有意这么做的。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, you know, I've written my obituary the way I've lived my life and if you want to pay attention to it that's alright with me. And if they want to ignore it, that's okay with me too. I'll be dead what difference will it make. And so, but I think it's a good – it's not a bad idea. Warren and I both lived in the same house for decade after decade after decade. All our friends get rich and build better – bigger and better houses. And naturally we can – we both considered bigger and better houses. I had a huge number of children, so it was justifiable even. And I still decided not to live a life where I look like the Duke of Westchester or something. And I was gonna avoid it. I did it on purpose.

贝基·奎克为什么?

BECKY QUICKWhy?

查理·芒格我不认为这对孩子有好处。

CHARLIE MUNGERI didn't think it would be good for the children.

贝基·奎克会把他们宠坏?

BECKY QUICKThat it would spoil them?

查理·芒格对。就是——你出生在富裕家庭,你的责任就是利用财富,过得气派。这是每个人用钱都在做的事。你会从那些正在这么做的人身上学到。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. It's – you grow up in a rich family, your duty is to use the wealth and live grandly. That is what everyone is doing with the money. You will learn from people who are doing it.

贝基·奎克你人生计划,你三十多岁时写的讣告,和今天会写的一样吗?

BECKY QUICKIs the plan for your life, the obituary you would write in your 30s, the same you would write today?

查理·芒格当然。我基本上信奉“坚持挺住”的系统。很多困难会来,你必须靠着坚持挺过去来处理好它。还有很多——少数罕见的机会会来。你必须学会在它们来临时识别它们,并且当机会来临时,不要只去馅饼柜台蹭一小下。这就是那些简单的道理。

CHARLIE MUNGERSure. I basically believe in the soldier on system. Lots of hardship will come and you gotta handle it well by soldiering through. And lots of – a few rare opportunities will come. You got to learn how to recognize them when they come and not that make too minor of a trip to the pie counter when the opportunity is available. And those are the simple lessons.