普京铁腕可能阻断俄罗斯崛起
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京向公民社会下了战书。在上个月的国情咨文中，他明确表示国家至高无上。他的讲话凸显了俄罗斯政治生态已变得何等严峻。
President Vladimir Putin of Russia has thrown the gauntlet to civil society. In an address to the nation last month he made clear that the state reigns supreme. His speech drove home just how grim Russia’s political landscape has become.
后苏联时期，俄罗斯正朝着开放社会迈进。如今，俄罗斯人却面临重回那个他们以为早已告别了的时代的风险。
In the post-Soviet period, Russia was on the way to becoming an open society. Now Russians risk returning to an era they thought they had left behind.
普京于 2000 年上台时，首要任务就是让俄罗斯重新凝聚起来。
When Putin came to power in 2000, putting Russia back together again was his first task.
这种重建国家的动力，似乎是对鲍里斯·叶利钦总统执政时期无政府状态的有益纠正。普京当时在修复一个软弱、分裂的国家——这个国家无法征税、无法实施法治，也无法控制大部分国土。
That drive to rebuild the country seemed a welcome antidote to the anarchy of the years of President Boris Yeltsin’s rule. He was repairing a weak and fragmented state that could not collect taxes or implement the rule of law, and had no control over much of its territory.
国家资本主义的特征如今已到位。国库充盈，俄罗斯的外汇储备达到历史最高水平。13% 的统一个人所得税率安抚了紧张的投资者。高油价也发挥了作用。
The hallmarks of state capitalism are now in place. The state coffers are full, with Russia’s reserves higher than ever. A flat tax of 13 percent has calmed jittery investors. The high price of oil has also played a role.
但俄罗斯的经济自由化并不意味着民主。普京似乎正在效仿新加坡，或奥古斯托·皮诺切特治下的智利，将经济稳定作为最高优先事项。如果他转而借鉴欧盟新成员国的经验——这些国家成功地平衡了经济与政治自由主义——俄罗斯的处境会好得多。
But Russia’s liberalized economy has not meant democracy. Putin seems to be emulating Singapore, or Chile under Augusto Pinochet, with economy stability the top priority. Russia would be better served if he looked to the European Union’s newest members, which have managed to balance economic and political liberalism with success.
话说回来，普京给了俄罗斯人最渴望的东西——稳定。最近的民调证实了他极高的人气，支持率约为 80%。
That said, Putin has given Russians what they crave most—stability. Recent polls testify to his huge popularity, with support ratings of about 80 percent.
普京在 3 月的连任进一步强化了他的执政基础。他现在控制着杜马（议会）超过三分之二的席位，这意味着他可以随意修改宪法。剩下的两个自由派政党因未能达到 5% 的得票率门槛而被排除在议会之外。
Putin’s re-election in March only redoubled his mandate. He now controls more than two-thirds of the Duma (Parliament), which means he can change the Constitution at will. The remaining two liberal parties were shut out of Parliament when they failed to meet the 5 percent threshold.
普京主导了独立电视媒体的实际消失。为数不多的几家独立报纸只能触达俄罗斯 1.46 亿人口中极小一部分。
Putin has overseen the virtual disappearance of independent television. The handful of remaining independent papers reach a tiny fraction of Russia’s population of 146 million.
他的国情咨文引发了人权活动人士可能成为目标的担忧。本月，喀山人权中心办公室遭到蒙面人突袭，设备被毁。上周，内务部要求英国文化协会提供财务记录，甚至质询该组织为何在俄罗斯存在。
His state-of-the-nation speech raised fears that human rights activists could now become targets. This month the offices of the Kazan Human Rights Center were raided and equipment destroyed by masked men. Last week the Interior Ministry demanded the British Council’s financial records, even questioning why the organization was in Russia.
普京竭力让车臣问题淡出新闻头条，不是通过找到解决冲突的办法，而是通过压制独立报道。在俄罗斯当局抗议后，曾就车臣问题发表过有力文章的获奖记者安娜·波利特科夫斯卡娅，甚至被取消了参加法兰克福书展小组讨论的邀请。现实是，车臣战争仍在激烈进行。人权观察组织报告称，去年失踪人数是自 1999 年第二次战争开始以来最高的。尽管满目疮痍、生灵涂炭，普京仍执意使用武力镇压该地区。
Putin has done his best to remove Chechnya from the headlines, not by finding a solution to the conflict but by suppressing independent reporting. After Russian authorities protested, Anna Politkovskaya, an award-winning journalist who had written eloquently about Chechnya, even had her invitation to a panel discussion at the Frankfurt book fair canceled. The reality is that the war in Chechnya rages on. Human Rights Watch has reported that last year the number of disappearances was the highest since the second war began in 1999. Despite the destruction and loss of life, Putin remains intent on using force to subdue the region.
一年多前，我决定关闭我在俄罗斯的基金会，确信国家现在有能力接手我过去 15 年一直在资助的大规模项目，主要集中在教育和公共卫生领域。我仍致力于支持俄罗斯人民，并已在俄罗斯捐赠了近 10 亿美元。我现在欢迎像米哈伊尔·霍多尔科夫斯基这样的商人，能够继续我的基金会所支持的公民社会以及互联网方面的关键工作。
More than a year ago I decided to close my Russian foundation, confident that the state could now take on large-scale initiatives, chiefly in the fields of education and public health, that I had been funding for the past 15 years. I remained committed to the Russian people and have donated nearly $1 billion in Russia. I now welcomed the prospect of businessmen—like Mikhail Khodorkovsky—continuing the key work in civil society and on the Internet that my foundation had supported.
霍多尔科夫斯基的被捕给商界蒙上了一层阴影。任何考虑披上慈善家外衣的人都明白，没有国家批准，一切皆无可能。
Khodorkovsky’s arrest cast a pall over the business community. Anyone who considered donning the mantle of philanthropist has understood that nothing is possible without the state’s seal of approval.
普京必须认识到，如果他扼杀公民社会，俄罗斯就不可能成为一个健康的国家。国家脱离社会就无法繁荣。俄罗斯官僚机构等待来自上级的指示，正表现出犹豫不决的迹象。如果不能保护批判性思维，普京的现代化努力就无法成功。如果他不能扭转局面，他将破坏他最想要的东西——一个强大的国家。他试图培育的经济发展也将与他失之交臂。
Putin must realize that Russia cannot be a healthy country if he strangles civil society. The state cannot thrive when divorced from society. The Russian bureaucracy, waiting for guidance from above, is showing signs of indecision. Putin’s effort to modernize Russia cannot succeed unless critical thinking is protected. If he fails to reverse course, Putin will undermine what he wants most—a strong state. The economic development that he seeks to foster will escape him.