我为何走遍美国推动约翰·克里入主白宫
过去三周，我穿梭于全美各地，呼吁不要再次选举布什总统。我强烈感到，他把我们引向了错误的方向。入侵伊拉克是一个巨大的错误，只有在选举中拒绝这位总统，我们才有希望摆脱身陷的泥潭。
I have been criss-crossing the United States for the past three weeks, arguing against the re-election of President Bush. I feel strongly that he has led us in the wrong direction. The invasion of Iraq was a colossal blunder, and only by rejecting the President at the polls can we hope to escape from the quagmire in which we find ourselves.
我踏上这场巡游，是因为我担心伊拉克局势的急剧恶化，并没有像我曾经自信预期的那样，让约翰·克里获得决定性的领先优势。现在巡游结束了，我并未感到安心。克里和布什在民调中势均力敌。虽然我相信投票率很可能让克里获胜，但这场竞选过于接近，让人难以安心。
I embarked on the tour because I was worried that the dramatic deterioration in Iraq did not produce the decisive lead for John Kerry I had confidently expected. Now that I am at the end of my tour, I am not reassured. Kerry and Bush are neck and neck in the polls, and although I believe voter turnout is likely to give Kerry the victory, the race is too close for comfort.
这个国家严重分裂，两个阵营似乎完全各说各话。约翰·克里在三次辩论中都赢了，但布什总统搬出信仰，这激励了他的追随者。说到底，分歧归结为如何应对一个常常令人困惑且充满威胁的现实的哲学观差异。
The nation is deeply divided, and the two camps seem to be talking past each other. John Kerry won all three debates, but President Bush invokes his faith and that inspires his followers. In the end, it boils down to a philosophical difference over how to deal with an often confusing and threatening reality.
像我们这样的开放社会，是建立在这样一个认识之上的：我们对现实的理解天生就不完美。没有人掌握终极真理。正如哲学家卡尔·波普尔（Karl Popper）所揭示的，即使在科学领域，终极真理也无法企及。所有理论都要经受检验，用更好的理论取代旧理论的过程永无止境。
An open society such as ours is based on the recognition that our understanding of reality is inherently imperfect. Nobody is in possession of the ultimate truth. As the philosopher Karl Popper has shown, the ultimate truth is not attainable even in science. All theories are subject to testing, and the process of replacing old theories with better ones never ends.
在一个开放的社会中，信念扮演着重要角色。正因我们的理解不完美，我们不能仅仅依靠知识来做决定。我们需要依赖信仰——无论是宗教的还是其他形式的——来帮助我们做出抉择。但我们必须对可能犯错保持开放态度，这样我们才能纠正错误。否则，我们注定会犯错。
Faith plays an important role in an open society. Exactly because our understanding is imperfect, we cannot base our decisions on knowledge alone. We need to rely on beliefs, religious or otherwise, to help us make decisions. But we must remain open to the possibility that we may be wrong so that we can correct our mistakes. Otherwise, we are bound to be wrong.
布什总统已经证明自己不认识错误。他坚持让现实屈从于自己的信念，哪怕代价是自欺欺人、蓄意蒙蔽公众。在当下的困难时期，他信仰的坚定性自有动人之处。但代价太过高昂。将信任寄托给一位无法承认错误的总统，结果就是把自己绑在错误政策之上。我们是地球上最强大的国家。没有外部势力、没有恐怖组织能击败我们。但我们可以自己因陷入泥潭而打败自己。那些宣称掌握终极真理的领袖，许诺能帮我们摆脱不确定性——但那是个陷阱，因为这些领袖终究会犯错。
President Bush has shown he is incapable of recognizing his mistakes. He insists on making reality conform to his beliefs even at the cost of deceiving himself and deliberately deceiving the public. There is something appealing in the strength of his faith, especially in our troubled time. But the cost is too high. By putting our faith in a President who cannot admit his mistakes, we commit ourselves to the wrong policies. We are the most powerful nation on earth. No external power, no terrorist organization, can defeat us. But we can defeat ourselves by getting caught in a quagmire. Leaders who claim to be in possession of the ultimate truth offer an escape from uncertainty. But that is a snare, because those leaders are bound to be wrong.
在全球化的影响下，我们承受了超出常态的不确定性。正因如此，指引布什总统的那种信念才如此有吸引力。“9·11”的创伤事件进一步强化了这种吸引力。布什总统挺身而出，带领国家团结一致。但他却把我们引向了错误的方向。如果我们再次选举布什总统，就是认可他的政策，也就不得不承担其后果。我们正面临暴力不断升级的恶性循环，看不到尽头。如果我们在投票中否决他，我们就有更好的机会重新赢得世界的尊重和支持，打破这个恶性循环。我们的未来取决于此。
Under the influence of globalization, we have been exposed to more than a normal dose of uncertainty. That is why the kind of faith that guides President Bush is so appealing. The traumatic events of 9/11 have reinforced that appeal. President Bush rose to the occasion and he carried the nation behind him. But he has led us in the wrong direction. If we re-elect President Bush, we are endorsing his policies and we shall have to live with the consequences. We are facing a vicious circle of escalating violence with no end in sight. If we reject him at the polls, we shall have a better chance to regain the respect and support of the world and break the vicious circle. Our future depends on it.
这就是为什么我认为这是我一生中最重要的一次选举，也正因如此，我这次如此积极地参与其中。过去 15 年间，我将一半的财富和大部分精力投入到推动全球民主和开放社会的价值观上，尤其是在前苏联帝国范围内。“9·11”之后，我愈发感到，这些原则也需要在美国国内得到捍卫。
That is why I consider this the most important election of my lifetime, and that is why I have taken such an active role in it. I have devoted half my fortune and most of my energies in the past 15 years to promoting the values of democracy and open society all over the world, especially in the former Soviet empire. After 9/11, I came to feel that those principles need to be defended at home.
我在推动民主和开放社会方面的全部经验告诉我：民主不能靠军事手段强加。而我们在伊拉克的做法，将让未来推广民主变得更加困难。通过我在全球范围内致力于推广民主和开放社会的基金会网络，我个人深切感受到了这一点。在布什总统的领导下，美国作为开放社会捍卫者的公信力已经丧失。
All my experience in fostering democracy and open society has taught me that democracy cannot be imposed by military means. And the way we went about it in Iraq will make it more difficult to promote democracy in the future. Through my foundation network devoted to promoting democracy and open society worldwide, I feel this personally. Under President Bush, America has lost its credibility as a champion of open society.
布什总统非但不承认自己的错误，反而告诉我们进攻就是最好的防守，我们在本土更安全是因为我们在海外打击恐怖分子。这种论调在恐惧恐怖主义的选民中引起了强烈共鸣——但这是塞壬的歌声。让我解释一下原因。
Instead of admitting his mistakes, President Bush now tells us that offence is the best defense, and we are safer at home because we are fighting the terrorists abroad. The argument resonates strongly with an electorate fearful of terrorism—but it is a Siren’s song. Let me explain why.
反恐战争是个抽象概念。但恐怖分子是真实的人，而且他们各不相同。在伊拉克攻击我们士兵的大多数人，原本与基地组织毫无关系。他们是布什政府政策催生出来的。我们本土虽未再遭受恐怖袭击，但把这归功于入侵伊拉克实在牵强。然而，伊拉克的叛乱是严峻的现实，它并没有让我们在美国本土更安全。恰恰相反，我们的安全状况——远非布什总统所声称的那样在改善——正在恶化。
The war on terror is an abstraction. But the terrorists are real people and they are not all alike. Most of the people attacking our soldiers in Iraq originally had nothing to do with al-Qa’ida. They have been generated by the policies of the Bush administration. We have been spared a terrorist attack at home, but it is quite a stretch to attribute that to the invasion of Iraq. The insurrection in Iraq, however, is a sombre reality, and it doesn’t make us safer at home. Our security, far from improving as President Bush claims, is deteriorating.
在入侵伊拉克之前，我们能在世界任何一个角落投射压倒性的力量。
Before the invasion of Iraq, we could project overwhelming power in any part of the world.
我们再也做不到这一点了，因为我们深陷伊拉克泥潭。伊朗和朝鲜正全力推进核计划，我们在应对它们时的手脚已受到严重束缚。布什政府还有许多其他政策值得批评，但没有哪一项比伊拉克问题更关键。伊拉克就是铁证，证明我们不能把信任寄托在总统身上。
We cannot do so any more because we are bogged down in Iraq. Iran and North Korea are moving ahead with their nuclear programs at full speed, and our hand in dealing with them has been greatly weakened. There are many other policies for which the Bush administration can be criticized, but none are as important as Iraq. Iraq is the proof that we cannot put our faith in the President.
布什总统界定的反恐战争，是对现实的单维度呈现。我们不能仅靠军事手段打击恐怖主义。只有在掌握明确目标时，我们才能动用武力；但恐怖分子的习惯就是隐藏行踪。要追踪他们，我们需要他们藏身之处民众的支持。如果攻势冒犯到那些我们需要争取其效忠的人，进攻未必是最好的防御。
The war on terror as defined by President Bush is a one-dimensional presentation of reality. We cannot fight terrorism by military means alone. We can use military force only when we have a known target; but it is the habit of terrorists to keep their whereabouts hidden. To track them down, we need the support of the populations among whom they hide. Offence is not necessarily the best defense if it offends those whose allegiance we need.
约翰·克里深知这一维度。正因如此，他无法像乔治·布什那样一意孤行。他立场微妙，是因为现实本就复杂。这一点却被布什竞选团队渲染成性格缺陷。然而，这恰恰是我们需要总司令具备的品质。约翰·克里在越战中已证明了他保卫国家的决心；但他也亲身了解到战争带来的毁灭性，因此只有在万不得已时才会动用武力。
John Kerry is aware of this other dimension. That is why he cannot be as single-minded as George Bush. He is nuanced because reality is complicated. This has been turned into a character flaw by the Bush campaign. Yet, that is exactly the character we need in our commander-in-chief. John Kerry is prepared to defend the country as he showed in Vietnam; but he has learned first hand the devastation that war can bring and will use military force only as a last resort.
相比之下，乔治·布什肆意地扮演着一位战时总统的角色。他的竞选活动无耻地利用了 9/11 事件引发的恐惧。但恐惧不是个好顾问；无论恐惧源自何处，我们都必须抵制它。如果再次选布什当总统，反恐战争将永无休止。恐怖分子是无形的，因此他们永远不会消失。反而可能是我们的公民自由会消失。
By contrast, George Bush revels in being a war president. His campaign is shamelessly exploiting the fears generated by 9/11. But fear is a bad counselor; we must resist it wherever it comes from. If we re-elect President Bush, the war on terror will never end. The terrorists are invisible, therefore they can never disappear. It is our civil liberties that may disappear instead.
开放社会始终面临危险。为了生存，它必须不断重申自己的原则。我们正经历严峻考验——先是 9/11，接着是布什总统的回应。要通过这场考验，我们必须直面现实，而不是在虚假的确定性中寻求安慰。我们作为开放社会的未来，取决于能否抵抗塞壬的歌声。
An open society is always in danger. It must constantly reaffirm its principles in order to survive. We are being sorely tested, first by 9/11 and then by President Bush’s response. To pass the test, we must face reality instead of finding solace in false certainties. Our future as an open society depends on resisting the Siren’s song.