阿塞拜疆应通过选举寻求真正民主
在前苏联的各个国家，被操纵选举激怒的人民接连推翻了多位根深蒂固的腐败领导人。尽管他们的行动提升了民主的前景，但阿塞拜疆不应将其视为效仿的模板——该国即将于 11 月举行选举。
In country after country in the former Soviet Union, people angered by rigged elections have toppled a string of entrenched, corrupt leaders. While their actions boosted prospects for democracy, Azerbaijan should not see this as a model to emulate when it goes to the polls in November.
相反，这个坐落在南高加索地区、石油资源丰富的国家，应抓住机会证明自己无需革命就能成为真正的民主国家。
Instead, Azerbaijan, that oil-rich country tucked in the southern Caucasus, should seize the opportunity to prove it can become a real democracy without revolution.
革命具有破坏性。它们可能为民主改革开辟道路，但并无保障。格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯斯坦的民众起义，标志着这些国家朝着民主化迈出了一步。然而，革命狂热消散后，政治家们面临从零开始建设民主的艰巨任务。格鲁吉亚取得了相当大的进展，乌克兰则陷入困境，而吉尔吉斯斯坦仍令人担忧。
Revolutions are destructive. They may open the way for democratic reform but provide no guarantee. The popular uprisings in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan marked one step towards democratization in those countries. But after the revolutionary euphoria dissipated, the politicians faced the arduous task of building democracy from scratch. While Georgia has made considerable progress, Ukraine has run into trouble and Kyrgyzstan remains a cause for concern.
阿塞拜疆可以选择避免这种命运。在这个被自然资源眷顾的穷国，政府已着手设立石油基金，以确保公民能从中获益。通过此举，政府显示出它似乎愿意承担责任，这与大多数石油国家领导人中饱私囊的做法划清了界限。阿塞拜疆是最早支持“采掘业透明度倡议”的国家之一，这项由英国和世界银行发起的项目，敦促政府和石油公司公开账目。
Azerbaijan can choose to avoid this fate. In a poor country blessed by natural wealth, the government already has moved to establish an oil fund to help ensure that citizens benefit from these resources. By doing so, the government signaled its apparent willingness to be accountable, breaking ranks with most leaders of oil states who enrich themselves at the people’s expense. Azerbaijan was one of the first countries to endorse a growing effort called the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a program sponsored by Britain and the World Bank that urges governments and oil companies to open their books.
然而，这些举措至今未能平息因持续贫困和基本自由受限而激起的不满。随着竞选活动展开，一些人认为阿塞拜疆将成为高加索和中亚下一个披上革命外衣的国家。部分反对派和统治精英似乎已按捺不住要动手。但现在是时候启动一个无需革命的过程了。必须在 11 月 6 日的议会选举前为公平选举奠定基础，这首先是政府的任务。事实上，总统伊利哈姆·阿利耶夫最近表示，他不希望重复 2003 年选举胜利时出现的公众冲突。
So far such steps have failed to allay popular discontent fuelled by persistent poverty and limits on basic liberties. And as the election campaign gets under way, some believe that Azerbaijan will be the next country in the Caucasus and central Asia to don the mantle of revolution. Segments of the opposition and ruling elite seem to be spoiling for a fight. But it is time to set in motion a process that renders revolution unnecessary. The groundwork for fair elections in the November 6 parliamentary poll must be laid now. This is primarily a task for government. Indeed, President Ilham Aliev recently said he does not want to repeat the public clashes that marred his 2003 electoral victory.
政府必须解除对国外资助本地选举观察员的禁令，还必须赋予公民抗议的权利。目前仍存在一些关键的法律条款和非官方手段，使执政的新阿塞拜疆党能够左右选举。该党及其卫星党控制了中央和地方的选举委员会；有证据表明，政府正利用国家资源支持其青睐的候选人。
The government must lift a ban on foreign funding of local election observers. It must also give citizens their right to protest. There remain key legal provisions and unofficial levers that enable the ruling New Azerbaijan Party to sway the elections. The party and its satellites dominate the central and local election committees; and some evidence suggests the government is using state resources to back favorites.
阿利耶夫政权的另一支柱是媒体。阿塞拜疆 800 万公民中，多数从国家控制的电视获取信息。不出所料，报道毫不掩饰地偏袒亲政府候选人。此外，被大肆吹嘘的公共广播——阿塞拜疆 2001 年加入欧盟委员会后的一项要求——已被证明令人失望。国家在挑选该频道的管理机构和高管时大加干预。
Another pillar of power for Mr. Aliev’s regime is the media. Most of Azerbaijan’s 8m citizens get their information from state-controlled television. Not surprisingly, coverage brazenly favors pro-government candidates. Further, the much vaunted creation of public broadcasting—a requirement of the Council of Europe, which Azerbaijan joined in 2001—has proved a disappointment. The state exerts a heavy hand in selecting the channel’s governing body and key executives.
竞争环境不可能一夜之间拉平。但政府现在就应该采取措施——并且在选举之后——确保这一目标实现。阿塞拜疆的公民社会显然面临诸多障碍。要取得进步，它必须弥合内部激烈的分裂。由于议会有可能成为民主改革的基石，公民社会应致力于选民教育并鼓励投票。当前围绕出口民意调查的争议，凸显了其在得出准确结果方面的关键作用。
The playing field cannot be leveled overnight. But the government should take steps now—and after the elections—to make sure this happens. Azerbaijan’s civil society clearly faces many obstacles. To progress, it must heal bitter internal divisions. With parliament potentially the keystone of democratic reform, civil society should work on voter education and encourage turn-out. The current controversy over exit polls in Azerbaijan underscores how crucial they are in delivering an accurate result.
公民社会不能因自身的内讧而瘫痪。在小小的阿塞拜疆，有超过十几个公民社会联盟争夺用于选举工作的资金。我的基金会一直在努力通过一个专门的网站，将非政府组织团结起来协调选举活动。
Civil society must not be crippled by its own rancor. In tiny Azerbaijan, more than a dozen civil society coalitions vie for funds to work on the elections. My foundation has worked to bring together nongovernmental groups to coordinate election activities through a special website.
外部行动者——美国和欧盟——必须传递强硬信号：阿塞拜疆不能靠窃取选举结果逃脱惩罚。许多人认为，因为该国丰富的石油储备，2003 年那场肮脏的选举才被放行。欧盟委员会尽管在 2000 年选举公然舞弊的情况下仍接纳了阿塞拜疆，却未能推动民主改革。阿塞拜疆因承诺通过石油基金保持政府透明度而赢得赞誉，但如果选举是场骗局，那就毫无意义。
Outside actors—the U.S. and the European Union—must deliver a tough message that Azerbaijan cannot get away with stealing the vote. Many believe the country was given a pass on the dirty 2003 poll because of its abundant oil reserves. The Council of Europe, which admitted Azerbaijan despite the blatant fraud of the 2000 elections, has failed to press for democratic reform. Azerbaijan has won kudos for pledging to uphold government transparency with its oil funds, but it means nothing if the elections are a sham.