乌克兰应获债务减免

2015 · 专栏 · 原文约 639 词
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乌克兰正在艰难地与债权人谈判,国际货币基金组织(IMF)将达成协议作为继续提供金融支持的条件。俄罗斯的侵略对新乌克兰经济造成了沉重打击,使其 190 亿美元的外债变得不可持续。关于重新协商该国债务的谈判目前正在旧金山进行。

Ukraine is struggling to negotiate a deal with its creditors, which the International Monetary Fund demands as a condition for further financial support. Russian aggression has taken a terrible toll on the economy of the new Ukraine, making its $19 billion in foreign debt unsustainable. Talks to renegotiate the country’s debt are currently under way in San Francisco.

不幸的是,乌克兰无法通过破产来解决问题。主权借款人没有“第 11 章”条款,可以用于在出借方和借款方之间建立停火协议、决定哪些债务需要重组,并在双方之间调解谈判。乌克兰及其私人出借方只能在“强权即公理”的背景下进行谈判。

Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn’t have recourse to bankruptcy. There is no chapter 11 for sovereign borrowers to establish a cease fire between lenders and borrowers, decide which debts should be reorganized, and mediate negotiations between the two sides. Ukraine and its private lenders are left to negotiate in a setting in which “might makes right.”

在这样的背景下,乌克兰唯一的谈判筹码就是威胁违约,除非能获得债务减免。我敢肯定,作为回应,债券持有人会警告乌克兰:一旦违约,该国将在很长一段时间内无人问津。

In such a setting, Ukraine’s only negotiating leverage is to threaten to default unless its gets debt relief. I am sure that, in return, bondholders are warning Ukraine that if it defaults, no one will invest in the country for a very long time..

主权债务违约代价高昂。但违约产生持久影响,主要是在债权人拖延不决的时候——就像 1980 年代拉丁美洲或今天的希腊那样。当一个国家与债权人能迅速达成协议,即使协议让债权人蒙受损失,这个国家通常一两年后就能重返市场。再者,让国家暂时被市场拒之门外的,并非违约本身,而是当初引发违约的经济问题。

Sovereign defaults are costly. But they have lasting effects mainly when lenders drag out the battle, as they did in Latin America in the 1980s or in Greece today. When a country and its lenders can reach a speedy deal, even one that imposes losses on lenders, the country is usually back in the market in a year or two. Moreover, it is not the default that briefly keeps the country out of the markets but the economic problems that caused the default in the first place.

美国前财政部长尼古拉斯·布雷迪在 1989 年提出布雷迪计划时就明白这一点,该计划敦促银行接受债务减免,至少对那些推行合理改革的拉美国家如此。布雷迪先生当时就懂得,精明的投资者在考虑是否向一个刚刚违约的国家放贷时,会着眼未来而不是过去。

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady understood this when he unveiled the Brady Plan in 1989, which urged banks to accept debt relief, at least for those Latin American countries pursuing sensible reforms. Mr. Brady understood then that savvy investors would look to the future rather than to the past when considering whether to lend to a country that had just defaulted.

如今,布雷迪先生是达比海外投资公司(Darby Overseas Investments)的董事长,该公司是富兰克林坦伯顿(Franklin Templeton)的私募股权部门,也是乌克兰最大的债券持有人。富兰克林坦伯顿正在极力反对债务减免。很难将布雷迪先生在 1989 年的立场与富兰克林坦伯顿今天的立场协调起来。

Today, Mr. Brady is the chairman of Darby Overseas Investments, the private-equity arm of Franklin Templeton, Ukraine’s largest bondholder. Franklin Templeton is pressing hard against debt relief. It is difficult to reconcile Mr. Brady’s position in 1989 with Franklin Templeton’s position today.

乌克兰政府正英勇地推进 1989 年布雷迪计划所倡导的那类结构性改革:根除腐败、改革司法体系、减少对俄罗斯天然气的依赖、融入欧盟经济、提升农业产出、清理银行系统,等等。如果债务减免能够推动这些改革,那么投资者就应该支持它(正如国际货币基金组织所做的那样),而不要理会那种认为债务勾销意味着末日的论调。如果只有通过违约才能获得债务减免,那么投资者应当为乌克兰这样做喝彩,而非谴责。

The Ukrainian government is fighting heroically for the kinds of structural reforms that the Brady Plan called for in 1989: rooting out corruption, reforming the judicial system, weaning the country from Russian gas, integrating the economy into the European Union, boosting agriculture, cleaning up the banking system, and more. If debt relief can be a fillip to these reforms, then investors ought to demand it (as the IMF is doing) and ignore the argument that writing off debt spells doom. If going into default is the only way to get debt relief, then investors will applaud, not condemn, Ukraine for doing it.

近期政策制定者和学术界试图重振主权债务重组机制(类似第 11 章)的努力,很可能像过去一样以失败告终。这对乌克兰这样的国家来说很不幸,因为“违约会毁掉国家声誉”这一论点,与美国破产法背后的逻辑背道而驰——美国破产法允许企业“重组”债务(通常是通过让债权人接受减记),从而使企业重振旗鼓。第 11 章的逻辑是:强迫一家负债累累的公司全额偿债,对经营不利;而让债务减免更容易,则可能对经营有利。

Recent efforts by policy makers and academics to revive the idea of a sovereign-debt restructuring mechanism, along the lines of chapter 11, are liable to founder, just as they have in the past. This is unfortunate for countries like Ukraine, because the argument that default ruins a country’s reputation runs against the logic behind the U.S. bankruptcy code, which allows companies to “reorganize” their debts—often by imposing haircuts on their creditors—so that they can revive their fortunes. Chapter 11 assumes that forcing a heavily indebted company to pay its debts in full is bad for business, and that making debt relief easier can be good for business.

对于乌克兰的债券持有人来说,承认自己反对债务减免(无论是通过削减本金还是其他方式)并不可耻。他们和我一样厌恶在投资中亏钱。为什么不直接承认这一点,而非要试图说服乌克兰债务减免对这个国家不利呢?这样做至少是真诚的,并且有一个好处——它说的是真相。说什么债务减免甚至违约不符合乌克兰的最佳利益,这种说法既不诚实,也是虚假的。

For Ukraine’s bondholders, there is no shame in admitting that they oppose debt relief, whether through haircuts or in any other way. They loathe losing money on their investments as much as I do. Why not admit this rather than try to convince Ukraine that debt relief is bad for the country? This would at least be sincere and have the advantage of being true. To say that debt relief and even default is not in Ukraine’s best interest is disingenuous and false.