质量谱系
## 品质谱系季度信函 动荡世界中的稳定 2023 年第一季度 汤姆·汉考克与卢卡斯·怀特 | 聚焦股权
执行摘要
战争、通胀、利率上升、银行业乱局、经济衰退——当前的投资环境危机四伏。地缘政治不稳定和国内政治冲突,构成了饱受通胀、利率上升、不断恶化的银行业危机以及增长放缓困扰的经济背景。大多数经济学家预计会出现经济衰退,尽管其时间、严重程度和持续时间尚不确定。然而,许多资产类别的估值仍然高企。在这样的环境中,投资者必须考虑如何在短期风险之下,最好地追求股市的长期回报。在 GMO,我们有着悠久的品质投资历史,并认为这正是那种优秀公司(Quality companies)不仅能够生存,而且通常能够长期强化其商业模式的环境。在本函中,我们颂扬品质投资的优点,同时也提醒一些实施过程中的陷阱。此外,我们还将讨论我们相对较新的多空策略,该策略预计将比纯多头的品质策略提供更多的下行保护,同时仍能带来强劲的回报。这种多空实施方式,在未来的环境中可能会被证明特别有价值。纵观长期,品质股既跑赢了市场,又在市场下跌时提供了保护,使其成为应对此类环境的独特选择。对于寻求更多下行保护的投资者,我们已推出了一种多空策略,该策略利用了估值合理的优质股的稳定性以及估值昂贵的劣质股的不稳定性。
THE QUALITY SPECTRUMQUARTERLY LETTER Stability in an Unstable World 1Q 2023 Tom Hancock and Lucas White | Focused Equity EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction War, inflation, rising rates, banking chaos, The current investment environment is fraught with peril. Geopolitical instability and domestic and recession are among the challenges political conflict form the backdrop for an economy beset by inflation, rising rates, a festering facing markets. Investors must balance these shorter-term risks with the long-term banking crisis, and slowing growth. Most economists expect a recession, though timing, severity, return prospects of equities. Quality stocks and length are unknowns. Yet, valuations remain rich for many asset classes. have both outperformed over the long haul In such an environment, investors must consider how best to pursue the long-term returns of and protected during market drawdowns, equity markets given these shorter-term risks. At GMO, we have a long history of Quality investing making them uniquely suited for this type and view this as the type of environment in which Quality companies not only survive but typically of environment. For investors interested in even more downside protection, we’ve strengthen their business models for the long term. In this letter, we extol the virtues of Quality launched a long/short strategy that while warning of some implementation pitfalls. In addition, we discuss our relatively new long/short exploits the stability of attractively valued Quality strategy, which we expect to provide even more downside protection than long-only Quality high-quality stocks and the instability of while still delivering strong returns. This long/short implementation may prove particularly valuable expensive low-quality stocks. in the environment that lies ahead.
风险的倒挂¹
投资界有一条公理:追求更高回报,就必须承担更高风险。例如,在固定收益市场中,高收益(垃圾)债券的回报率高于风险较低的投资级债券。然而,在股票市场中,高质量股票尽管风险低得多,却以相当大的优势跑赢了低质量(垃圾)股票(见图表 1)。这好比只花低价就买到一辆奔驰,却要为一辆尤戈(Yugo)付出高价!²
图表 1:债券市场对风险的定价是理性的,但股票市场却把它搞反了
金融理论告诉我们,高风险股票应该胜出……但事实并非如此
| 债券市场指数表现 | 质量股/垃圾股表现 |
|---|---|
| 9% | 12% |
| 高收益 | 11% |
| 高质量 | 8% |
| 年化回报率 | 年化回报率 |
| 10% | 9% |
| 7% | 8% |
| 6% | 7% |
| 垃圾股 | 6% |
| 投资级 | 5% |
| 1 | |
| 我们这里沿用 GMO 的行话。GMO 质量策略的原始缔造者之一查克·乔伊斯(Chuck Joyce)曾用这个短语来描述质量股以较低风险跑赢大盘的现象。 | |
| 5% | 6% |
| 11% | 16% |
| 10% | 12% |
| 14% | 16% |
| 18% | 20% |
| 年化波动率 | 年化波动率 |
The backwardation of risk1 It is an investment axiom that seeking higher returns requires taking more risk. In fixed income markets, for example, high yield (junk) bonds have returned more than lower risk investment grade securities. In equity markets, however, higher-quality stocks have outperformed lower-quality (junk) stocks by a considerable margin despite being much less risky (see Exhibit 1). This is akin to getting a Mercedes on the cheap and paying up for a Yugo!2 EXHIBIT 1: THE BOND MARKET PRICES RISK RATIONALLY, BUT THE STOCK MARKET GETS IT BACKWARDS Finance theory tell us that high-risk stocks should win…but they don’t BOND MARKET INDEX PERFORMANCE QUALITY/JUNK STOCK PERFORMANCE 9% 12% High Yield 11% Quality 8% Annualized Return Annualized Return 10% 9% 7% 8% 6% 7% Junk 6% Investment Grade 1 5% 5% We are adhering to GMO jargon here. One of the original 6% 11% 16% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% architects of the GMO Quality Strategy, Chuck Joyce, used this phrase to describe the phenomenon that Quality Annualized Volatility Annualized Volatility stocks outperform with lower risk.
截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日 | 来源:标普、MSCI、GMO
Yugo 是 1980 年代的汽车品牌,很多人认为它是争夺著名的“史上最差汽车”头衔的有力竞争者。
GMO 将高质量公司定义为那些具有高盈利性、低盈利波动性且杠杆使用极少的公司。垃圾公司则正好相反。关于所展示的基准数据的更多信息,请参见尾注。
As of 12/31/2022 | Source: S&P, MSCI, GMO Yugo was a 1980s automobile brand that many consider to be a strong competitor for the illustrious “Worst Car in GMO defines Quality companies as those with high profitability, low profit volatility, and minimal History” title. use of leverage. Junk companies are the inverse. See Endnotes for further information regarding benchmark data presented.
质量谱系:动荡世界中的稳定性 | 第 2 页 质量股的较低市场波动性,反映了它们更为稳定的基本面。这种稳定性使质量型公司能够在经济压力时期进行战略性投资,而垃圾型公司则疲于保命。质量股在经济低迷期间相对坚挺、垃圾股则分崩离析的趋势,在我们稍后讨论多空策略时将非常重要。
The Quality Spectrum: Stability in an Unstable World | p2 The lower market volatility of Quality stocks is a reflection of their more stable fundamentals. This stability allows Quality companies to make strategic investments during times of economic stress, while Junk companies fight for their lives. The tendency for Quality to hold up relatively well while Junk falls apart during downturns will be important when we discuss our long/short strategy later.
GMO 的质量策略渊源 GMO 成立早期,质量股的强劲风险 / 回报特征就一直是其股票投资的核心。20 世纪 70 年代末,杰里米·格兰瑟姆与合伙人创立公司时,他和同事们面对一个难题:高质量企业(如强生、宝洁、可口可乐)对于价值投资者来说很难持有,因为按传统的价值衡量指标(如市净率),这些股票往往相对市场存在溢价。然而与此同时,那些伟大公司既在长期跑赢大盘,又在持续低迷的市场中保住了资本。杰里米意识到,如果能有一套帮助投资者判断商业模式相对质量的框架,就能更真实地估算这些公司的内在价值。
The origins of Quality at GMO The observation that Quality stocks have compelling risk/return characteristics has been at the core of GMO’s equity investing since our early days. When Jeremy Grantham and his partners founded the firm in the late 1970s, Jeremy and his colleagues3 grappled with the conundrum that high quality businesses (e.g., Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, The Coca-Cola Company) were difficult for Value investors to own because they tended to trade at a premium to the market on traditional Value measures, such as price to book. Yet, at the same time, the great companies had both outperformed over the long haul and protected capital in prolonged downturns. Jeremy recognized that a framework that enabled an investor to determine the relative quality of business models would help determine a truer sense of the intrinsic value of those companies.
优质公司往往拥有可持续的竞争优势,使它们能够接连数十年保持极高的盈利能力。我们的研究得出了识别这类公司的三个关键特征。那些拥有高盈利性记录、盈利稳定性强且杠杆率低的公司,最有可能在整个经济周期及各种经济环境中,持续以高回报率配置资本来实现增长。通过将这几个质量因子纳入 GMO 的早期价值模型,GMO 得以持有那些相对其质量调整后的内在价值而言价格低廉的优质企业。
Quality companies tend to have sustainable competitive advantages that allow them to be excessively profitable for decades at a time. Our research led to three keys in identifying companies that enjoy these edges. Companies with a record of high profitability, stable profitability, and low leverage are most apt to be able to continue to grow by deploying capital at high rates of return throughout the business cycle and in various economic environments. By incorporating these Quality factors into GMO’s early Value models, GMO held great businesses trading cheaply relative to their Quality-Adjusted Intrinsic Value.
“一记轻拳就能把垃圾公司打倒在地。当然,垃圾公司处在光谱的另一端,即使借助大量杠杆,也只能产生低而不稳定的盈利能力。垃圾公司通常缺乏持续的竞争优势,依赖有利条件才能成功。它们可能对经济周期高度敏感,或依赖宽松的信贷环境。它们可能是在追逐某种未经证实的药物或技术,也可能是在管理处于衰退行业的企业。垃圾公司有各种不同的类型,但它们在面对不利事件时都有一个共同点——不堪一击。一记轻拳就能把垃圾公司打趴下,而优质公司却像洛奇·巴尔博亚那样,能承受重拳,然后站起来继续战斗。”
“While a glancing punch can knock a Junk Junk companies, of course, flail around at the other end of the spectrum, producing low, unstable profitability despite the assistance of a substantial dose of leverage. Junk companies generally lack sustainable competitive advantages and are reliant on favorable conditions for success. They may be levered to the economic cycle or reliant on easy credit conditions. They may be pursuing company to the mat, an unproven medicine or technology, or they may be overseeing businesses in declining industries. There are various flavors of Junk companies, but they share vulnerability in the face of adverse Quality companies events. While a glancing punch can knock a Junk company to the mat, Quality companies absorb absorb body blows like body blows like Rocky Balboa and come back for more.
洛奇·巴尔博亚还会再回来的。为什么优质股的表现更胜一筹?
Rocky Balboa and come back for more. Why have Quality stocks outperformed?
至此,应当看得出“优质取胜”这件事有多么古怪了。学术界关于“优质异象”的文献汗牛充栋,投资专业人士的研究也层出不穷。大多数解释都落在一个宽泛的行为主义框架内。研究认为,分析师和投资者系统性地低估了优质公司相对于劣质公司的未来回报。换句话说,投资者习惯性地为那些投机性、劣质商业模式的“彩票式”前景付出过高价格,却忽略了优质股票切实但乏善可陈的特质。
At this point, it should be clear how odd it is that Quality wins. Much academic ink has been spilled on the Quality anomaly, and research written by investment professionals abounds. Most explanations fall within a broad, behavioral-based thesis. Studies posit that analysts and investors systematically underestimate the future returns of high-quality firms compared to low-quality firms. Put another way, investors routinely overpay for the exciting lottery ticket prospects of speculative, junky business models while neglecting the tangible but boring attributes of Quality stocks.
我们发现另一个重要的行为因素也在起作用,那就是职业风险对投资决策的影响——这是 GMO 的一个热门话题。投资者通常预期市场会上涨。毕竟,过去 100 年里有 74 年市场是上涨的。考虑到市场普遍上涨的预期,以及品质股往往在上涨市场中表现落后这一认识(见图表 2),就不难理解为什么在关注相对业绩时,将资金配置到品质股会让人感觉风险很大。当然,早期 GMO 的一些投资者(包括克里斯·达内尔和福雷斯特·伯克利)对此理念亦有贡献,品质股恰恰会在下跌市场中凭借其远超大盘的表现把业绩重新夺回来(再次见图表 2),从而在长期实现领先。慢而稳者赢得比赛,但在每个季度结束时,你很难忽视耳边那个关于相对业绩的恶毒低语——说得清楚些,品质股在上涨市场中表现落后,并不意味你在牛市中就应该回避品质股。在一个以回报为导向的世界里,“为什么你输的次数比赢的次数多?”长期复利确实会被人注意到,但这是通往名声和财富的一条极其缓慢的路径。以截至 2023 年 4 月 30 日的五年期上涨市场为例,我们的品质策略年化净回报率为 13.5%,而同期标普 500 指数为 11.5%,MSCI 全球指数为 8.1%。
We see another important behavioral factor at work, and it revolves around the impact of career risk on investment decision making, a favorite topic at GMO. Investors typically expect the market to rise. After all, the market has risen in 74 of the last 100 years. Given the general expectation of rising markets and the awareness that Quality tends to trail in up markets (see Exhibit 2), it’s easy 3 to see why it can feel risky to allocate to Quality when focused on relative performance. Of course, Some of the early GMO investors who contributed to this thinking include Chris Darnell and Forest Berkeley, Quality more than claws the performance back through dramatic outperformance in down markets among others. (once again, see Exhibit 2), leading to the outperformance of Quality over time. Slow and steady 4 wins the race, but at the end of the quarter, it’s hard to ignore the pernicious whisper of the relative-To be clear, Quality’s tendency to lag in up markets doesn’t mean that one should avoid Quality in a bull market. In an return-oriented “Why do you lose more often than not?” Compounding over time does get noticed up market over the five years through April 30, 2023, for but is an excruciatingly slow route to fame and fortune.4 example, our Quality Strategy has delivered 13.5% net of fees per annum vs. 11.5% for the S&P 500 and 8.1% for MSCI World.
质量光谱:在动荡世界中的稳定 | 第 3 页 图表 2:为什么优质公司表现更优?
The Quality Spectrum: Stability in an Unstable World | p3 EXHIBIT 2: WHY DO QUALITY COMPANIES OUTPERFORM?
相对风险驱动着投资者行为,而在上涨月份中,优质公司的表现落后
4%
3.1%
3.4%
3.6%
平均月度回报
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-2.5%
-3.5%
-6%
-4.3%
上涨月份 下跌月份
优质公司 MSCI 全球指数 劣质公司
数据来源:1988 年 1 月 31 日至 2023 年 3 月 31 日 | 来源:MSCI,63% 的月份为上涨月份
GMO 将优质公司定义为高盈利、低盈利波动且杠杆使用极少的公司。劣质公司则相反。关于所呈现基准数据的更多信息,请参见尾注。
Relative risk drives investor behavior, and Quality companies trail in up markets 4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% Average Monthly Return 2% 0% -2% -4% -2.5% -3.5% -6% -4.3% Up Months Down Months Quality MSCI ACWI Junk Data from 1/31/1988 to 3/31/2023 | Source: 63% ofMSCI, monthsGMOhave been up GMO defines Quality companies as those with high profitability, low profit volatility, and minimal use of leverage. Junk companies are the inverse. See Endnotes for further information regarding benchmark data presented.
GMO 的质量投资策略有两个关键要素驱动。首先,我们必须准确评估企业的质量。这说起来容易做起来难。2022 年,MSCI 美国质量指数在整体市场大幅下跌中表现显著逊色,这与投资者在投资质量型股票时的预期完全不符。我们的经验表明,评估质量的最佳方法需要结合基本面分析与量化分析。利用量化模型来识别具备质量特征的公司是一个不错的起点,而我们对自家模型在瞄准杰里米·格兰瑟姆及其同事几十年前提出的关键标准方面有很高的信心。然而,即使是最好的模型也可能产生假阳性与假阴性。因此,我们通过行业和公司基本面研究来补充我们的量化指标。例如,直到 2015 年,Bed Bath & Beyond 在筛选中的得分都比苹果更高。在我们的质量投资策略中,我们没有犯这个错误。
GMO’s approach to Quality Two key elements drive the investment approach for our Quality Strategy. First, we must accurately assess the quality of the business. This is easier said than done. In 2022, the MSCI USA Quality index significantly underperformed in a big down market, not what investors expect when they invest in Quality. Our experience indicates that the optimal approach to assessing Quality requires a blend of fundamental and quantitative analysis. Employing quantitative models to identify companies with Quality characteristics is a good place to start, and we have a high degree of confidence in our own models targeting the key criteria that Jeremy Grantham and his colleagues came up with decades ago. However, even the best models can produce both false positives and false negatives. As such, we augment our metrics with fundamental industry and company research. For example, Bed Bath & Beyond screened as a higher-quality company than Apple until 2015. We did not make that mistake in our Quality Strategy.
一旦我们完成了质量评估,就会进入第二个关键步骤:确定公允价值。无论质量评估做得多好,无论是量化评估还是基本面评估,都无法防范出价过高的风险。我们相信,对价格敏感的方法能显著提升回报,并在市场下跌时改善表现。许多旨在提供稳定、低风险股票回报的策略——从低波动组合、质量因子组合,到集中持有的主动型质量组合——都存在估值忽视或估值不可知的问题。5 根据我们的衡量指标,质量在科技泡沫破裂时并未起到明显的保护作用。微软在当时和现在都是一家高质量公司,但在那些日子里其市盈率超过 50 倍。我们在 2022 年又看到了类似情形:当时高质量成长股因估值过高而表现落后。许多“质量”组合被曝出本质上就是“不惜一切代价追成长”,因此在下跌市场中表现不佳。我们相信,将估值纳入考量的更审慎方法,对于降低风险和实现绝对回报都至关重要。
Once we’ve completed our Quality assessment, we move on to the second key: determining fair value. The best Quality assessment, quantitative or fundamental, cannot protect against the risk of overpaying, and we believe that a price-sensitive approach significantly enhances return and improves performance during market drawdowns. Many strategies designed to provide stable, low-risk equity returns, ranging from low volatility portfolios and Quality factor portfolios to concentrated active Quality portfolios, suffer from valuation ignorance or agnosticism.5 On our measures, Quality did not protect significantly during the bursting of the tech bubble. Microsoft was a high-quality company then as now, but in those days traded at over 50x earnings. We saw an echo of that in 2022 when again high-quality growth companies at stretched valuations lagged. Many “Quality” portfolios were revealed to be concentrated in Growth at any price and hence underperformed in the down market. We believe that a more prudent approach integrating valuation is key both for risk reduction and generating absolute returns.
把垃圾股加进来
GMO 优质策略成功利用了我们在讨论的这种市场低效现象,长期表现优于市场的同时,还提供了更好的回撤保护和基本面优势。我们的策略在上涨期间始终接近甚至跑赢大盘,在下跌期间则表现更好,这对资产配置者来说非常有用。("优质:真正的货真价实," Kim Mayer,GMO 聚焦股权投资,2020 年 11 月《洞察》)。然而,让我们看看光谱另一端被利用得较少的机会:垃圾股。
Adding Junk to the mix The GMO Quality Strategy has successfully exploited the market inefficiency we’ve been discussing by outperforming while delivering better drawdown protection and fundamental strength over time. Our strategy has successfully stayed close to or even beaten broad equity markets during up 5 periods while outperforming in down periods, a profile that has proven very useful for allocators. “Quality: The Real McCoy,” Kim Mayer, GMO Focused Equity However, let’s look at the less well exploited opportunity at the other end of the spectrum: Junk. Insights, November 2020.
质量光谱:在不稳定的世界中寻求稳定 | 第 4 页“垃圾股不仅表现落后,而且伴随着更高的波动性,尤其在形势艰难时挣扎更甚。因此,垃圾公司整体而言是有趣的做空候选标的,还能额外对冲经济风险。一个做多优质/做空垃圾的投资组合(净多头敞口显著),其复利积累过程中的下行保护能力远超单纯的做多优质策略,更不用说与宽基股票指数相比了。如今,审视一个充斥着未经证实、不盈利的商业模式、且被多年宽松货币抬起来的投资环境,似乎正是一个利用全方位优质资产的好时机。我们在 2004 年推出名为“战术机遇”的做多优质/做空垃圾策略时,就曾看到过类似的、对做空垃圾股来说激动人心的环境。该策略的目标是收割优质-垃圾利差,并对冲股票风险提供一种高性价比的避险工具。策略名称中的“战术”一词意味着,鉴于当时高质量与低质量股票之间的估值差距(就像新冠疫情后几年 GMO 的股票错位策略专注于价值 vs 成长一样),我们看到了非同寻常的回报潜力。“战术机遇策略”是美元中性的,而空头头寸相对多头头寸的更高波动性通常导致显著的负贝塔。一旦战术机遇期兑现(正如它在 2008 年表现出色那样),该投资组合便回归到更狭窄的应用场景——作为有效的尾部风险保护。6 质量光谱的兴起廉价对冲/战术押注是一回事,但我们长期以来一直对将优质与垃圾股的特性融入一个全天候战略组合的想法感到兴奋。2019 年,我们正是这样做的,推出了“质量光谱策略”。质量光谱采用了与战术机遇策略相同的要素。然而,与战术机遇策略的美元中性实施不同,质量光谱是净多头的。一个净多头的优质/垃圾股组合会产生正贝塔,并能在不同时期产生强劲回报,将一个战术对冲组合转变为长期复利工具,并拥有优秀的风险调整后回报。
The Quality Spectrum: Stability in an Unstable World | p4 “ Junk stocks not only underperform, but they do so with higher volatility and particularly struggle when times get tough. Hence, Junk companies are interesting candidates for shorting in general and can additionally hedge against economic risk. A long Quality/short Junk portfolio with material ...Junk companies are net long exposure can compound over time with significantly more downside protection than interesting candidates even a long-only Quality strategy, let alone compared to broad equity indices. Today, surveying an for shorting in general investment landscape strewn with unproven and unprofitable business models buoyed by years of and can additionally easy money seems like an opportune time to take advantage of the full range of Quality. hedge against We saw a similarly exciting landscape for shorting Junk in 2004 when we launched a long Quality/ economic risk. short Junk strategy called Tactical Opportunities. The objective was to harvest the Quality-Junk spread and provide a cost-effective hedge for equity risk. The “Tactical” in the strategy’s name denoted that we saw unusual return potential at the time given the valuation gap between high-and low-quality stocks (much like we have in the post-Covid years with GMO’s Equity Dislocation Strategy, focused on Value vs. Growth). The Tactical Opportunities Strategy was dollar neutral, and the higher volatility of our short book relative to our long book typically resulted in significantly negative beta. Once the tactical opportunity played out (as it did spectacularly well in 2008), the portfolio reverted to a narrower use case as efficient tail risk protection.6 The rise of Quality Spectrum A cheap hedge/tactical bet is one thing, but we’ve long been excited about the idea of capitalizing on the features of Quality and Junk in a strategic all-weather portfolio. In 2019, we did just that with the launch of the Quality Spectrum Strategy. Quality Spectrum employs the same ingredients as the Tactical Opportunities Strategy. However, as opposed to the dollar neutral implementation of Tactical Opportunities, Quality Spectrum is net long. A net long Quality/Junk portfolio results in a positive beta and can generate strong returns across periods, transforming a tactical hedging portfolio into a long-term compounding vehicle with excellent risk-adjusted returns.
在确定我们的总杠杆率和净杠杆率水平时,我们考虑了三个关键目标:1. 随着时间的推移实现强劲回报……越强劲越好。
In determining our gross and net leverage levels, we considered three key objectives: 1. Deliver strong returns over time…the stronger, the better.
2. 设定一个可接受的绝对波动水平,我们将其理解为大致与股市保持一致。
2. Target an acceptable level of absolute volatility, which we construe as being roughly in line with equity markets.
提供相对于股票市场的显著下行保护,或许与对冲基金指数更可比。
3. Provide material downside protection relative to equity markets, perhaps more comparable to hedge fund indices.
我们的研究表明,175% 多头 / 75% 空头的组合能够很好地平衡上述目标。组合的多头部分与我们纯多头的质量策略(Quality Strategy)实施方式一致——集中持仓、基本面驱动、关注估值。空头部分的构建则更为分散,瞄准一篮子估值高昂的垃圾公司(Junk companies)。我们相信,估值高昂的垃圾股是发掘优秀做空机会的沃土,且当市场下行、我们需要对冲时,这一群体表现会很差;但我们也认识到,管理空头部分的特定风险同样至关重要。就在过去三年里,我们见过无数公司股价先上涨数百个百分点,随后又暴跌超过 90%。身处做空那一方很艰难。考虑到市场整体向上的趋势,负贝塔(negative beta)是一件难以承受的事,而站在那些涨势的对立面——哪怕只是暂时——也同样棘手。通过做空一个分散化的篮子,我们专注于实施质量多空策略(Quality long/short),捕捉垃圾股因子,同时避免在单只个股上承担过度风险。这项策略在投资组合中一直是一个难以持有的品种。它需要动态调整规模,才能作为承担特定对冲功能的拼图有效运作,而且如果单独审视,往往会产生难看的业绩。在理论之外——质量光谱(Quality Spectrum)的实践表现到目前为止,我们一直聚焦于质量与垃圾股投资的逻辑和长期经验,但质量光谱策略(Quality Spectrum Strategy)的实际表现如何?迄今为止,我们已经实现了……不过,从理论上看这仍是一个有趣的工具,GMO 几年前便放弃了美元中性(dollar neutral)策略。
Our research indicated that a long 175%/short 75% blend balanced these objectives quite well. The long side of the portfolio mirrors the implementation of our long-only Quality Strategy – a concentrated, fundamentally driven, valuation sensitive portfolio. The short side is more diversified in construction, dialing into a broad basket of expensive Junk companies. While we believe that expensive Junk is fertile ground for identifying excellent short opportunities and that this group will perform poorly during downturns when we need it to, we also recognize the importance of 6 managing idiosyncratic risk on the short side. Just in the last three years, we’ve seen any number You may have noted that we are using the past tense of companies rally hundreds of percent, only to subsequently fall over 90%. It’s tough to be on the here. Negative beta is a difficult thing to chew on given the upward trend in markets, and that particular wrong side of those rallies, even if only for a time. By shorting a diversified basket, we focus on implementation of a Quality long/short proved to be a capturing the Junk factor without taking undue risk on individual names. difficult line item to hold within an investment program. It required dynamic sizing to be effective as a puzzle piece performing a specific hedging role and often produced ugly Beyond theory – Quality Spectrum in practice results when considered in isolation. While this is still a Thus far, we’ve focused on our thesis and long history of experience with Quality and Junk investing, theoretically interesting tool, GMO retired the dollar neutral but how has the Quality Spectrum Strategy performed in practice? To date, we’ve accomplished our strategy a few years ago.
7 个关键目标达到了我们所能期望的最好水平(见图表 3)。自成立以来,质量光谱策略(Quality Spectrum)在扣除费用后的年化回报率约为 15%,跑赢全球宽基指数(MSCI ACWI)近 8 个百分点/年,尽管其贝塔值很低。7 表现数据截至 2023 年 4 月 30 日。正如预期那样,该策略的波动性与市场基本一致;然而,波动性并不能很好地代表“真正”的风险。虽然回撤也不是完美的风险衡量指标,但我们认为回撤更能反映一项策略的安全性,而质量光谱策略的回撤远小于市场。事实上,该策略的最大回撤或许是最引人注目的特征。尽管实现了股票级别的回报,我们的最大回撤却更接近对冲基金指数以及含 50% 现金的官方基准!8 图表 3:高回报 + 更低真实风险 自成立以来历经动荡市场检验:新冠疫情、成长股史诗级上涨/暴跌、通胀、利率上升、衰退 16% 16% 14% 质量光谱策略 14% 质量光谱策略 12% 12% 年化回报率 年化回报率 10% MSCI ACWI 10% MSCI ACWI 8% HFRX 股票 8% 50% MSCI ACWI/ 对冲基金指数 50%/ 3 个月期国库券 6% 6% 4% 50% MSCI ACWI/ 4% 50%/ 3 个月期国库券 HFRX 股票 2% 2% 对冲基金指数 0% 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 波动率 最大回撤 截至 2023 年 4 月 30 日 | 成立日:2019 年 11 月 30 日 | 来源:MSCI、摩根大通、GMO 有关表现和基准数据的更多信息,请参见尾注。
7 key objectives as well as we could have hoped (see Exhibit 3). Since inception, the Quality Spectrum The broad market here refers to the MSCI All Country Strategy has delivered returns of around 15% per annum net of fees, outperforming the broad World index (MSCI ACWI). Performance data is as of April 30, 2023. market by almost 8% per annum despite its low beta.7 As expected, the volatility of the strategy The Quality Spectrum: Stability in an Unstable World | p5 has been in line with the market; however, volatility is a poor proxy for “true” risk. While drawdowns aren’t perfect measures of risk either, we believe drawdowns are a better reflection of the safety of a strategy, and the drawdowns for Quality Spectrum have been much smaller than those of the market. The maximum drawdown of the strategy has, in fact, been perhaps its most impressive feature. Despite delivering equity plus returns, our maximum drawdown has been more in line with hedge fund indices and our official benchmark, which has 50% cash!8 EXHIBIT 3: STRONG RETURNS WITH LOWER TRUE RISK Battle-tested through wild markets since inception: Covid, epic Growth rally/ collapse, inflation, rising rates, recession 16% 16% 14% Quality Spectrum Strategy 14% Quality Spectrum Strategy 12% 12% Annualized Return Annualized Return 10% MSCI ACWI 10% MSCI ACWI 8% HFRX Equity 8% 50% MSCI ACWI/ Hedge Index 50% 3-Month T-Bill 6% 6% 4% 50% MSCI ACWI/ 4% 50% 3-Month T-Bill HFRX Equity 2% 2% Hedge Index 0% 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% Volatility Max Drawdown As of 4/30/2023 | Inception: 11/30/2019 | Source: MSCI, J.P. Morgan, GMO See Endnotes for further information regarding performance and benchmark data presented.
虽然三年半的时间算不上特别长,但优质光谱策略已经在各种不同的环境中经受过实战检验,灵活穿越了重重雷区般的挑战,包括新冠疫情、2020 年利率降至零时成长股史诗级的狂欢(当你做空泡沫式成长垃圾股时,这绝非易事)、通胀、乌克兰战争、经济衰退、利率上升以及一场银行业危机。结合我们的研究以及二十年来做多优质股、做空垃圾股的投资经验,我们对这一策略未来的前景充满信心。
While three and a half years isn’t a particularly long period of time, the Quality Spectrum Strategy has been battle-tested through a variety of different environments and has nimbly navigated a minefield of challenges, including Covid, an epic Growth rally in 2020 when interest rates were slashed to zero (no small feat when you’re short growthy Junk), inflation, war in Ukraine, recession, rising rates, and a banking crisis. When combined with our research and two decades of experience investing in Quality and shorting Junk, we feel confident in the strategy’s prospects going forward.
你想要的,随行就市的贝塔值
在设计 Quality Spectrum 时,我们的研究显示长期贝塔预期约为 0.4 到 0.5。从产品成立至 2023 年 4 月末,市场涨幅接近 50%,而实际贝塔约为 0.7。然而,当 2022 年市场下跌近 20% 时,Quality Spectrum 的跌幅不到 2%。这得益于该策略最具吸引力的特点之一:贝塔值往往在上涨市场中上升、在下跌市场中下降,且无需任何投资决策或市场预测。原因何在?通常,当市场承压时,多头高质量组合的贝塔下跌,而空头垃圾组合的贝塔大幅上升,导致整体贝塔显著降低。相反的情况一般发生在市场快速上涨时:多头组合的贝塔上升,空头组合的贝塔下降,进而推升贝塔。作为投资组合经理,能够信任自己的组合在市场环境变化时自动做出正确反应,实在是一种奢侈。
Beta that moves when you want it to In designing Quality Spectrum, our research indicated a long-term beta expectation of around 0.4 to 0.5. From inception through the end of April 2023, the beta has been closer to 0.7 in a market that jumped almost 50%. Yet, when the market dropped almost 20% in 2022, Quality Spectrum fell less than 2%. This is due to one of the most attractive features of the strategy: the beta tends to rise in up markets and fall in down markets without the need for investment decision making or market prognostication. Why? Typically, when the market is under duress, the beta of the long Quality book drops while the beta of the short Junk book rises significantly, resulting in a substantial reduction in beta. The opposite generally occurs when markets are rushing upwards: the beta of the long book rises while the beta of the short book drops, leading to an increase in beta. As portfolio managers, it’s a luxury to be able to trust your portfolio to do the right thing as conditions change!
多空“质量”策略的挑战
并非只有我们注意到,一个做多杠杆持有低波动股票、辅以减少量做空高波动股票的多头净敞口组合有其优势。不过,我们可能是第一个将基本面与估值同时纳入这种策略的投资者。GMO 质量频谱策略的官方基准是 50% MSCI ACWI 指数 / 50% 三个月期美国国债。那些只瞄准波动率统计指标的策略缺乏透明度,往往表现出显著的、随时变化的风格和行业敞口,且常在不利时机突然轮动。此外,纯粹的低波动策略容易错过做多端的复利机会,同时在做空端可能将高久期误判为基本面风险。质量频谱策略正是为克服这些挑战而设计的。
Challenges of long/short Quality We aren’t the only investors to note the benefits of a net long portfolio with a levered long book of low volatility stocks complemented by a smaller short book of higher volatility stocks. However, 8 we may be the first to bring a focus on both fundamentals and valuation to such an approach. The official benchmark for the GMO Quality Spectrum Strategies that only target statistical measures of volatility lack transparency, tending to exhibit Strategy is 50% MSCI ACWI/50% 3-Month T-Bills. significant time-varying style and sector exposures, often with abrupt rotation at inopportune The Quality Spectrum: Stability in an Unstable World | p6 Tom Hancock times. In addition, a pure low volatility approach tends to miss compounding opportunities on the Dr. Hancock is the long side and can mistake high duration for fundamental risk on the short side. Quality Spectrum is head of the Focused designed to overcome these challenges.
对于寻求配置优质策略的投资者而言,最大的挑战或许在于其适配难度。优质策略的回报潜力与纯多头股票相比毫不逊色,但包含空头敞口的策略可能会让习惯纯多头投资的方案感到不安。此外,这类策略的贝塔系数介于股票和对冲基金之间,这使得它难以被纳入任何一类资产篮中。对于那些能够在投资组合中找到位置的创造性配置者而言,我们对这一多空策略的热情一如既往。
尽管经济风险持续累积,但我们并不妄图预测其中任何一个将如何发展。然而,我们确实相信,真正优质的公司——兼具吸引人的估值——将在不可避免的风暴中保护投资者,并在长期内实现卓越的复利回报。
Equity team, a portfolio manager for GMO’s Perhaps the biggest challenge in allocating to Quality Spectrum surrounds difficulty of fit. The Quality Strategies and return potential compares favorably with long-only equities, but strategies with short exposure a partner of the firm. Previously at GMO, can be eyebrow raising for a long-only program. Furthermore, the beta lies somewhere between he was co-head of the Global Equity team. equities and hedge funds, making it a tough fit for either basket. For creative allocators who can Prior to joining GMO in 1995, he was a find a spot in their portfolio, we continue to be as excited as ever about the long/short approach. research scientist at Siemens and a software engineer at IBM. Dr. Hancock holds BS and Conclusions MS degrees from Rensselaer Polytechnic While risks to the economy continue to pile up, we don’t pretend to know how any of them will play Institute and a PhD in Computer Science out. However, we do believe that truly high-quality companies at attractive valuations will protect from Harvard University. investors through the inevitable storms and compound returns at superior levels for the long term.
卢卡斯·怀特:此外,采用多空策略的投资组合若能额外利用表现不佳的垃圾公司——怀特先生正是这类公司的组合管理者——可以在提供更强下行保护的同时实现可观回报。这种多空策略的下行保护增强效应,源于低质量资源与气候类公司在市场艰难时往往崩溃,而高质量公司则能持续生存,进而改变策略……这导致其在熊市中具有更低的贝塔系数。尽管我们的多空策略实施方式具备非同寻常的吸引力,但它难以被归于某一类别,因而并非投资者追捧的策略,对资产管理公司而言也缺乏提供动机。我们期望这一策略的进入壁垒能使其持续有效,因为我们相信,对于那些足够有创意、能够重新组合类别的人来说,这个策略代表着绝佳的机会!
Lucas White Furthermore, a long/short portfolio that additionally exploits underperforming junk companies Mr. White is the portfolio can provide even more downside protection while also delivering strong returns. The enhanced manager for the downside protection of the long/short approach emanates from the tendency for low-quality Resources and Climate companies to fall apart when things get tough while high-quality companies persevere, leading Change strategies. He to a falling beta in down markets. Despite the unusually attractive features of our long/short is a member of GMO’s implementation, the strategy does not fit neatly into a bucket and thus isn’t a popular strategy Focused Equity team and a partner of the for investors and, hence, for asset managers to offer. We are hopeful that this barrier to entry firm. Previously at GMO, he was engaged for the strategy will allow it to continue to work, as we think the strategy represents an excellent in portfolio management for the Global Equity team, including responsibilities for opportunity for those creative enough to rearrange their buckets! the Quality, Tactical Opportunities, and U.S.
增长策略。他在 2006 年加入 GMO 的尾注之前,曾任职于 Standish Mellon Asset(附件 1 中的债券指数是标普 500 高收益公司债券指数和标普 500 投资管理及 MFS)。怀特先生获得了杜克大学的经济学与心理学学士学位。标普 500 投资级和高收益指数回报数据始于 1995 年。附件 1 和附件 2 中的优质与垃圾投资组合基于 MSCI ACWI 指数回报(始于 1988 年)。高风险与低风险组基于 MSCI ACWI 指数内的四分位数。他是 CFA 持证人。
Growth Strategies. Prior to joining GMO in Endnotes 2006, he worked at Standish Mellon Asset Exhibit 1 bond indices are the S&P 500 High Yield Corporate Bond index and the S&P 500 Investment Management and MFS. Mr. White earned Grade Corporate Bond index. The S&P 500 Investment Grade and High Yield index return data starts in his bachelor's degree in Economics and 1995. The Quality and Junk portfolios in Exhibits 1 and 2 are based off the MSCI ACWI index returns Psychology from Duke University. He is a that start in 1988. High- and low-risk groups are based off quartiles within the MSCI ACWI index. CFA charterholder.
MSCI 数据不得复制或用于任何其他目的。MSCI 不作任何保证,未编制或批准本报告,并且不承担任何相关责任。标普不保证任何数据或信息的准确性、充分性、完整性或可用性,并且不对因使用该数据或信息而产生的任何错误或遗漏负责。未经标普或其第三方许可方事先书面许可,禁止以任何形式复制本数据或信息。请访问 https://www.gmo.com/americas/benchmark-disclaimers/ 查看完整的基准免责声明。本文所述观点仅代表汤姆·汉考克和卢卡斯·怀特截至 2023 年 5 月的观点,并可能随时根据市场和其他条件发生变化。本文件不构成对任何证券的购买或出售要约或招揽,也不应被理解为此类文件。引用的具体证券和发行人仅为说明目的,无意也不应被解释为购买或出售此类证券的建议。所示业绩数据为历史业绩,不代表未来表现。净回报在扣除模型咨询费以及(如适用)业绩报酬后呈现。这些回报包含交易成本、佣金、外国收入及资本利得的预扣税,并酌情包含股息及其他收入再投资的影响。MSCI 数据不得复制或用于任何其他目的。MSCI 不作任何保证,未编制或批准本报告,并且不承担任何相关责任。请访问 https://www.gmo.com/americas/benchmark-disclaimers/ 查看完整的基准免责声明。
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质量光谱:在动荡世界中的稳定 | 第 7 页 年化收益率(截至 2023 年 4 月 30 日,净,美元) 成立日 1 年 3 年 5 年 10 年 成立至今 GMO 质量策略 2004 年 2 月 29 日 7.52% 14.90% 13.28% 12.75% 9.36% 标普 500 指数 2.66% 14.53% 11.45% 12.20% 9.12% MSCI 全球指数 3.18% 13.11% 8.14% 8.71% 7.27% 风险披露 投资本策略可能涉及的风险包括:市场风险——股票、管理与运营风险、集中投资风险、非美国投资风险以及货币风险。
The Quality Spectrum: Stability in an Unstable World | p7 Annualized Returns as of 4/30/2023 (Net, USD) Inception 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year ITD GMO Quality Strategy 2/29/2004 7.52 14.90 13.28 12.75 9.36 S&P 500 Index 2.66 14.53 11.45 12.20 9.12 MSCI World Index 3.18 13.11 8.14 8.71 7.27 Risk Disclosure Risks associated with investing in the Strategy may include: Market Risk - Equities, Management and Operational Risk, Focused Investment Risk, Non-U.S. Investment Risk, and Currency Risk.
截至 2023 年 4 月 30 日的年化回报率(净值,美元) 成立以来 1 年 3 年 5 年 10 年 成立至今 GMO 优质频谱策略 2019/11/30 21.89 19.33 不适用 不适用 15.11 50% ACWI 50% 3 个月国库券混合指数 3.05 6.81 不适用 不适用 4.60 MSCI ACWI 指数 2.06 12.05 不适用 不适用 7.19 风险披露 投资该策略的相关风险可能包括:股票风险、空头投资敞口风险、集中投资风险、货币风险及小型公司风险。
Annualized Returns as of 4/30/2023 (Net, USD) Inception 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year ITD GMO Quality Spectrum Strategy 11/30/2019 21.89 19.33 n/a n/a 15.11 50% ACWI 50% 3Mo TBill Blend 3.05 6.81 n/a n/a 4.60 MSCI ACWI 2.06 12.05 n/a n/a 7.19 Risk Disclosure Risks associated with investing in the Strategy may include: Equities Risk, Short Investment Exposure Risks, Focused Investment Risk, Currency Risks, and Smaller Company Risks.
所引用的业绩数据代表过往业绩,不能预测未来业绩。净收益率已扣除模型咨询费及业绩报酬(如适用)。这些回报已计入交易成本、佣金、外国收入和资本利得的预扣税,并已按情况纳入股息和其他收益的再投资。组合内各账户实际支付的费用可能高于或低于所使用的模型费率。全球投资业绩标准(GIPS®)组合报告可在 GMO.com 网站上获取:进入策略页面的“文档”部分,点击 GIPS® 组合报告链接即可。GIPS® 是 CFA 协会拥有的注册商标。CFA 协会不为本机构背书或推广,也不保证本文所含内容的准确性或质量。实际费用在 GMO 的 Form ADV 第二部分中披露,也可在每个策略的组合报告中查到。
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Net returns are presented after the deduction of a model advisory fee and incentive fee if applicable. These returns include transaction costs, commissions and withholding taxes on foreign income and capital gains and include the reinvestment of dividends and other income, as applicable. Fees paid by accounts within the composite may be higher or lower than the model fees used. A Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) Composite Report is available on GMO.com by clicking the GIPS® Composite Report link in the documents section of the strategy page. GIPS® is a registered trademark owned by CFA Institute. CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. Actual fees are disclosed in Part 2 of GMO's Form ADV and are also available in each strategy’s Composite Report.