《金融时报》页岩气是奇迹革命还是跟风潮
投资者远未确定能从页岩中获利
Investors are far from certain to make money from shale
除非过去几年你一直在冬眠，否则你一定听说过页岩油气“革命”或“奇迹”正在进行中。美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马在 2012 年的国情咨文中承诺支持页岩气开发。戴维·卡梅伦敦促反对水力压裂的人“跟上步伐”。
Unless you have been in hibernation for the past few years you will have heard that there is a shale hydrocarbon “revolution” or “miracle” under way. Barack Obama, the US president, pledged support for shale gas development in his 2012 State of the Union speech. David Cameron has urged opponents of fracking to “get on board”.
“Fracking”已进入日常用语。这个词去年 6 月被收入《牛津英语词典》。它涉及释放高压混合的水、沙子和化学品来压裂岩石，从页岩中释放石油和天然气。环保人士对这种做法有各种反对意见。而页岩作为救世主的概念——无论是作为廉价能源还是作为投资——还有其他问题。
“Fracking” has passed into the vernacular. The term was added to the Oxford English Dictionary last June. It involves releasing a high-pressure mix of water, sand and chemicals to crack rocks and release oil and gas from shale. Environmentalists have all sorts of objections to this practice. And there are other problems with the concept of shale as a saviour – either in terms of cheap energy or as an investment.
首先是“能源投资回报率”或 Eroei 的概念。这是从一种能源产生的能量与为获取该能量所消耗的能量之比。这是一个重要但大多被忽视的比率，它决定了我们经济的效率——我们必须投入多少资源来获取能源——以及能源勘探和发电的经济性。
The first is the concept of “energy return on energy investment” or Eroei. This is the ratio of the amount of energy generated from an energy source to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy. It is an important and mostly ignored ratio which determines both the efficiency of our economies – how much of our resources have to be expended into getting our energy – and the economics of energy exploration and generation.
一个多世纪前发现的石油大多位于陆上，通常位于政治稳定的国家，靠近主要消费市场。然而，自然趋势是先摘低垂的果实，随着时间的推移，石油和天然气勘探和生产出于必要已转向更不适宜居住和偏远的地区，这给油气和市场之间带来了物流障碍。
The oil discoveries which took place a century or more ago were mostly in onshore locations, often in politically stable countries and close to key consumer markets. However, there is a natural tendency to pick the low hanging fruit first, and over time, oil and gas exploration and production has, out of necessity, moved to less hospitable and remote locations, which place logistical barriers between oil and gas and the markets.
页岩气和页岩油以及水力压裂只是这一趋势的延伸。美国石油生产的 Eroei 在 1930 年代为 100:1——每生产 100 个单位需消耗 1 个单位。到 2000 年，尽管技术取得了巨大进步，这一比例已降至 11:1。页岩油的比例约为 5:1。这是一个关键的差异。
Shale gas/oil and fracking are just an extension of this trend. US oil production had an Eroei of 100:1 in the 1930s – every hundred units produced required one unit to be expended. By 2000, despite huge technological advances, that had dropped to 11:1. The ratio for shale oil is about 5:1. This is a critical difference.
还有资源枯竭的问题。投资分析中一个老把戏是问：投资 100 英镑每年回报 20 英镑是好是坏。大多数人会说这是好回报。但评估这项投资还缺少其他关键信息：资产寿命和到期价值。如果资产只持续三年然后一文不值，那就是糟糕的投资，因为 100 英镑投资只能收回总计 60 英镑。如果持续 20 年，那就是好投资，因为能收回 400 英镑。
There is also the issue of depletion. An old trick in investment analysis is to ask whether an annual return of £20 for an investment of £100 is good or bad. Most people will say it is a good return. But you lack other vital information necessary to assess the investment: the asset life and maturity value. If the asset only lasts for three years and is then worthless, it is a bad investment, as you will only recoup £60 in total from £100 invested. If it lasts for 20 years, it’s a good investment, as you will recoup £400.
资产寿命对于评估所有投资至关重要。对于石油和天然气勘探和生产而言，它是到油井或气田不再具有经济可行性而必须废弃之前的时期。
Asset life is critical to assess all investments. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production, it is the period until the well or field is no longer economically viable and has to be abandoned.
页岩油井产量递减速度之快令人意外。北达科他州巴肯地层 2012 年钻探的典型油井，如今产量可能不到初始产量的 30%。最近美国东北部和加拿大较新的尤蒂卡页岩区表现逊于预期，也反映了这一点。
The steepness of decline in production rates for shale oil wells has been a surprise. A typical well in the Bakken Formation, North Dakota, drilled in 2012 is likely to be producing at less than 30 per cent of its initial production rate today. Recent disappointing performance relative to expectations at the newer Utica shale play in the northeast US and Canada mirrors this.
页岩气投资的投资者回报大致分为两个主要时期。从 2002 年发现大多数页岩气到 2007 年，页岩公司股价迅速上涨。一旦新发现的气体投入生产，天然气价格下跌——回报和股价也随之下降。英国最大的页岩气玩家是 Cuadrilla 资源公司，成立于 2007 年，由澳大利亚上市公司 AJ 卢卡斯、Riverstone 控股和凯雷集团所有，正在兰开夏郡勘探页岩气矿藏。AJ 卢卡斯持有 Cuadrilla 42% 的股份，其自身股价仅为 2009 年价值的四分之一。
Investor returns on shale gas investments have broadly come in two main periods. From the discovery of most shale gas in 2002 until 2007, share prices of shale companies rose rapidly. Once the newly discovered gas came on stream, natural gas prices fell – and so did returns and share prices. The largest shale player in the UK is Cuadrilla Resources, which was founded in 2007 and is owned by AJ Lucas, Riverstone Holdings and Carlyle and is exploring for shale gas deposits in Lancashire. AJ Lucas, a quoted Australian company, owns 42 per cent of Cuadrilla. Its own shares are just a quarter of what they were worth in 2009.
这种令人失望的表现并不限于小公司。英国石油公司 2012 年 7 月在页岩上减记了 10 亿美元，而加拿大公司 Encana 表示近年来在页岩气资产上损失了近 20 亿美元。壳牌在减记其得克萨斯州鹰滩页岩储量资产超过 20 亿美元后，正在出售其在那里的股份。该公司声称有 200 多口井无法达到生产目标。壳牌前首席执行官彼得·沃瑟曾表示，关于美国页岩革命出口到其他国家的说法是“夸大的”，世界其他地区处于早期的“勘探阶段”，可能产生“负面意外”。
Nor is this disappointing performance limited to small companies. BP wrote off $1bn on shale in July 2012 whilst the Canadian company Encana said it lost almost $2bn on its shale gas assets in recent years. Shell is selling its stake in the Eagle Ford shale reserve in Texas, having written off more than $2bn on its assets there. It claims more than 200 wells are incapable of reaching their production target. Peter Voser, the former Shell chief executive, has said the rhetoric about the US shale revolution being exported to other countries was “hyped”, and that the rest of the world was in an early “exploration phase” which could yield “negative surprises”.
正如已故的吉米·戈德史密斯喜欢说的：“如果你看到一辆花车，那就太晚了。”页岩花车可能已经过去了。
As the late Jimmy Goldsmith was fond of saying: “If you see a bandwagon, it’s too late.” The shale bandwagon may already have passed.
Terry Smith
Terry Smith
Financial Times
Financial Times