《金融时报》投资考量只看事实

2014 · 文章 · 原文约 805 词

译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文，也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。

20 世纪 50 年代，电视上播出过一部早期侦探剧《法网》（Dragnet），主角是虚构的乔·弗莱迪（Joe Friday）。每集开场，他都会说：“我叫弗莱迪，我是警察。”他的另一句经典口头禅，通常在试图从一个语无伦次、可怜巴巴的证人嘴里套出证据时说：“只要事实。”

In the 1950s, an early detective series on TV was Dragnet, starring the fictional Joe Friday. In the opening sequence to every show he would say: “My name is Friday. I’m a cop”. His other famous one-liner, usually delivered while trying to extract evidence from a hapless babbling witness, was: “Just the facts”.

在投资时，我们都该记住乔对证人的访谈技巧。那就从几个事实说起——如下表所列。你会想拥有一家交出这样成绩单的公司吗？

We would all do well to remember Joe’s witness interview technique when it comes to investing. So let’s start with a few facts – those shown in the table below. Would you want to own a company which had delivered those results?

你会投资吗？

Would you invest?

年份收入经营现金流

Year Revenue Operating cash flow

2006 44.3 14.4

2007 51.1 17.8

2008 60.4 21.6

2009 58.5 19

2010 62.5 21.1

2011 70 27

2012 73.7 31.6

Source: Fundsmith

过去六年，该公司收入增长 66%，年复合增长率 8.8%。在跨越金融危机和深度衰退的这段时期，这已算相当不易。2009 年公司经历下滑，但收入仅下降 3%，基本没什么周期性。

It has seen revenues rise by 66 per cent over the past six years, a compound growth rate of 8.8 per cent, which was no mean feat for a period which spanned the financial crisis and a deep recession. The company experienced a downturn in 2009, but revenues only fell by 3 per cent, so it is barely cyclical.

现金流表现更胜一筹。同期经营现金流增长 119%——年复合增长率 14%——经营现金流占收入的 43%，利润率极其出色。

Its cash flow performance has been even better. Operating cash flows grew by 119 per cent over the same period – a compound annual growth rate of 14 per cent – and its operating cash flows are 43 per cent of its revenues, so its margins are exceptionally good.

总而言之，这是一份亮眼的经营业绩。当然，单凭这点做不了投资决策。你还需要估值数据——考虑到它近期的业绩，你可能会理所当然地认为，其股价必定高得让人没法投。这也情有可原。

All in all, it’s an impressive operating performance. Of course, you can’t make an investment decision on the basis of that alone. You’d need some data on valuation – and you could be forgiven for thinking that, given its recent record, its shares must be so highly valued as to be uninvestable.

如果我告诉你，目前你能以超过 8% 的自由现金流收益率（自由现金流除以市值）买入这家公司，而且前瞻市盈率只有 12 倍，你觉得如何？它还派发股息——收益率 3.2%，派息覆盖倍数 2.4 倍。最妙的是，其资产负债表上的现金相当于市值的四分之一左右。

What if I told you that you could currently buy this company on a free cash flow yield (the free cash flow it generates, divided by its market value) of over 8 per cent? That it is on a prospective price-earnings ratio of 12? It pays dividends too – giving a 3.2 per cent yield covered 2.4 times. To cap it all, it has cash on its balance sheet equivalent to about a quarter of its market value.

你的反应大概是：“我怎么买这股票？”我当时就是这样。如果在这些数字前加个美元符号，后面加个“亿”字，我说的这家公司就是微软。

“How do I buy the shares?” might well be your response. It was certainly mine. If you put a dollar sign at the beginning of those figures and “billions” after them, the company I have described is Microsoft.

说到这里，我猜那些可能正垂涎这一投资机会的投资者会感到意外。微软不是科技大战的输家吗？我都数不清读过多少篇来自计算机刊物、商业杂志、报纸、分析师报告和博客的文章，质疑微软能否“自救”。

At this point, I would guess that investors who might have been salivating at the prospect of this investment opportunity will be surprised. Surely Microsoft is a loser in the tech wars? I have lost count of the number of articles I have read in computer publications, business magazines, newspapers, analysts’ reports and blogs questioning whether Microsoft can “save itself”.

自救什么？空头认为，微软在移动设备领域输给了苹果，在在线搜索和移动操作系统上输给了谷歌。它还与日益萎缩的个人电脑更换周期紧密捆绑，因为个人电脑用的是 Windows 操作系统，这是我们大多数人熟悉的微软产品。

Save itself from what? Bears argue that Microsoft has lost out to Apple in mobile devices and Google in online search and mobile operating systems. It is also inextricably linked to the declining PC replacement cycle as that uses its Windows operating system, which is the Microsoft product most of us know.

你要是读过大多数关于微软的评论，肯定会得到这种看法。可话说回来，还得回到那些烦人的事实。微软按收入和利润计算最大的事业部是服务器和工具部门，该部门开发和销售服务器软件及软件开发者工具。它的客户是 IT 专业人士和软件开发者。你对这块了解多少？

That is certainly the view you will get if you read most commentary on Microsoft. However, back to those pesky facts. Microsoft’s largest division by both revenues and profits is its servers and tools division which develops and markets software for servers and software developer tools. Its customers are IT professionals and software developers. How much do you know about that?

如果你在工作中用微软软件——我们绝大多数人都用——那我想你应该已经经历或即将经历从 Windows XP 升级到 Windows 7 的过程，因为微软正停止对旧产品的支持。全球 95% 的自动取款机运行 Windows XP。这是个源源不断的礼物——我们所有人都得升级到新版操作系统，微软因此坐享一笔年金式收入。

If you use Microsoft software in work, and the vast majority of us do, then I would guess that you have gone through, or are about to go through, an upgrade from Windows XP to Windows 7 as Microsoft is halting support for the older product. Windows XP runs 95 per cent of the world’s cash machines. This is an example of a gift which keeps on giving – an annuity income for Microsoft which results from us all having to update to more recent versions of its operating system.

我不敢说自己懂科技投资（不过，意识到自己有局限，我怀疑这一点已让我比多数自以为懂的人强一步）。对谁将接替史蒂夫·鲍尔默担任首席执行官，我也没什么见解。但财务分析我确实懂一点，而这似乎常被忽视——许多评论微软的人正是如此。

I do not profess to know anything about technology investment (although at least with this awareness of my limitations, I suspect I am one step ahead of most of those who think they do). Nor do I have any insight into who will take over from Steve Ballmer as chief executive. But I do know something about financial analysis, which often seems to be ignored, as it has been by many commentators on Microsoft.

更糟糕的是，许多关于微软的“研究”和评论，关心的不是它经营是好是坏，而更多是评论者自己的偏见。他们似乎常觉得，微软不够酷、不时髦，又没有苹果的设计品位，所以不配成功。

Worse, much of the “research” and commentary about Microsoft is not about whether it is doing well or badly. It’s more about the biases of the commentators, who often seem to feel that because Microsoft is not hip or fashionable, and doesn’t have the design sense of Apple, it doesn’t deserve to succeed.

事实却说明相反的一面。只要盯着事实看。

The facts suggest otherwise. Just stick to the facts.

Terry Smith

Financial Times