更富有、更智慧、更幸福 第005期:亿万富翁英国人特里·史密斯(威廉·格林,投资者播客网络)

2021 · 访谈 · 原文约 29768 词
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在这一期节目中,威廉·格林与英国投资传奇人物特里·史密斯进行了深入对话。特里是彭博亿万富翁指数上榜成员,管理着英国最大的股票基金——Fundsmith 股票基金。自 2010 年以来,该基金回报率超过 600%,跑赢 MSCI 世界指数逾 200 个百分点。在这里,特里深度剖析了将他自己从贫困推向投资界巅峰的那些技能、个性特质与原则。

In this episode, William Green chats with British investing legend Terry Smith. Terry, a member of Bloomberg’s index of billionaires, manages the Fundsmith Equity Fund, which is the UK’s largest stock fund. Since 2010, it’s returned more than 600%, beating the MSCI World Index by over 200 percentage points. Here, Terry talks in depth about the skills, personality traits, & principles that catapulted him from poverty to the pinnacle of the investing world.

在本集中,您将了解到:

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

特里·史密斯是如何在贫穷与暴力的环境中成长起来的。

How Terry Smith was shaped by poverty & violence.

他因揭露金融欺诈而声名鹊起。

How he achieved fame by exposing financial deception.

他寻找伟大企业时看重什么。

What he looks for when identifying great businesses.

为什么他钟爱的许多公司都有百年历史。

Why many of his favorite companies are 100 years old.

他回避哪些行业,又看好哪些行业。

Which sectors he shuns & which he likes.

微软身上体现了他所钟爱的那种企业特质。

How Microsoft embodies what he loves in a business.

为什么值得为最优秀的公司支付高价。

Why it’s worth paying up for the best companies.

为什么美国是他最钟爱的投资之地。

Why the US is his favorite place to invest.

担任首席执行官的经历如何让他成为更出色的投资者。

How being a CEO made him a better investor.

他从约翰·邓普顿爵士那里学到了什么。

What he learned from Sir John Templeton.

他为何拒绝与经纪人交谈,也不看他们的研究报告。

Why he refuses to speak with brokers or read their research.

为什么在职业和个人生活中取得成功如此艰难。

Why it’s hard to be successful professionally & personally.

他为何对特斯拉深表怀疑。

Why he’s deeply skeptical about Tesla.

TRANSCRIPT

TRANSCRIPT

免责声明:以下文字记录系采用人工智能生成。我们力求尽可能准确,但因平台差异,可能存在轻微错误及时间戳上的细微偏差。

Disclaimer: The transcript that follows has been generated using artificial intelligence. We strive to be as accurate as possible, but minor errors and slightly off timestamps may be present due to platform differences.

[00:00:03] 威廉·格林:大家好,很高兴再次回到《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》播客。今天的节目是我个人最钟爱的几期之一。我们的嘉宾是英国传奇投资人特里·史密斯,他管理着 Fundsmith 股票基金。自 2010 年基金成立以来,特里通过投资于全球范围内极具持久性的高质量公司组合,实现了年均 14.8% 的回报率。过去 14 年间,他累计跑赢 MSCI 世界指数超过 200 个百分点。《金融时报》称特里为英国最负盛名的选股人之一。

[00:00:03] William Green: Hi there, it’s wonderful to be back with you on the Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast. Today’s episode is one of my all-time favorites. Our guest is a legendary British investor named Terry Smith, who manages the Fundsmith Equity Fund. Since its fund’s inception in 2010, Terry has racked up an average return of 14. 8 percent a year by investing in a global portfolio of high quality companies that are extremely durable. Cumulatively, he’s beaten the MSCI World Index by more than 200 percentage points over the last 14 years. The Financial Times describes Terry as one of the UK’s most renowned stock pickers.

[00:00:45] 威廉·格林:彭博社将特里列入其亿万富翁榜单,称他为英国最受欢迎的资金管理人。考虑到特里当初所面临的种种不利条件,他在市场和商业上的成功就显得更为难能可贵。正如您将听到的,他在 20 世纪 50 年代和 60 年代成长于一位卡车司机之家。

[00:00:45] William Green: Bloomberg, which includes Terry on its list of billionaires, calls him the UK’s most popular money manager. Terry’s success, both in markets and business, is even more impressive when you consider the odds that were stacked against him. As you’ll hear, he grew up as the son of a truck driver in the 1950s and 60s.

[00:01:06] 威廉·格林:在东伦敦一个非常粗野的地区,那里最出名的是贫困、匮乏、二战留下的炸弹破坏,以及大量的暴力事件,其中包括臭名昭著的克雷兄弟经营的犯罪集团。在这次对话中,特里深入讲述了他是如何将自己从那样的环境中拖出来,攀登到投资游戏的巅峰。

[00:01:06] William Green: In a very rough and tumble area of East London that was best known for poverty and deprivation and bomb damage from World War II and plenty of violence, including the criminal enterprises run by the infamous Kray Twins. In this conversation, Terry talks in depth about what it took to drag himself out of that environment to the pinnacle of the investment game.

[00:01:30] 威廉·格林:你将深刻感受到他的分析能力、投资原则,以及他成为投资传奇所必需的坚韧与决心。他一路走来,无论是地理上还是精神上,都跨越了漫长的距离。如今,他已年逾七旬,居住在非洲海岸附近的毛里求斯热带岛屿上,距伦敦约 6000 英里。

[00:01:30] William Green: You’ll get a keen sense of the analytical skills, the investment principles. And the sheer grit and determination required for him to become an investing legend. He’s come a long way, both literally and figuratively. Now, in his early 70s, he lives on the tropical island of Mauritius, off the coast of Africa, about 6,000 miles from London.

[00:01:55] 威廉·格林:他业余时间练武术,常与年轻得多的拳手实战切磋,还热衷收集汽车,目前已有 200 多辆。接下来你们会听到,特里是个了不起的人物。他冲劲十足,聪明绝顶,魅力四射,风趣幽默,迷人又爱斗,精明老练,而且我得说,相当强硬。

[00:01:55] William Green: In his spare time there, he practices martial arts, spars regularly with much younger fighters, and also indulges in his hobby of building a collection of more than 200 cars. As you’ll hear, Terry is a remarkable character. Ferociously driven, fiercely intelligent, charismatic, funny, charming, combative, shrewd, and I would say pretty tough.

[00:02:21] 威廉·格林:我猜他不是世界上最好相处或共事的人,采访前我对他有些警惕,但结束时我却相当喜欢他,非常敬佩他的性格力量,以及他那纯粹的韧性和不屈不挠。无论如何,希望你们像我一样享受这场对话。非常感谢你们的参与。

[00:02:21] William Green: I suspect he’s not the easiest man in the world to live with or work with, and I was slightly wary of him going into our conversation, but I ended it by liking him a good deal and hugely admiring his strength of character, and really the sheer resilience and indomitability of the guy. In any case, I hope you enjoy our conversation as much as I did. Thanks so much for joining us.

[00:02:49] 开场白:您正在收听的是《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》播客,主持人威廉·格林将专访全球顶尖投资者,探索如何在市场与人生中双赢。

[00:02:49] Intro: You’re listening to the Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast, where your host, William Green, interviews the world’s greatest investors and explores how to win in markets and life.

[00:03:09] 威廉·格林:好的,大家好,我非常高兴地欢迎今天的嘉宾,传奇英国投资人特里·史密斯,他现在从毛里求斯岛的家中连线参加节目。特里是投资公司 Fundsmith 的创始人、总裁兼首席投资官。Fundsmith 股票基金是英国最大的股票基金,我认为,管理资产超过 270 亿美元。

[00:03:09] William Green: Alright, hi folks, I’m absolutely delighted to welcome today’s guest, the legendary British investor, Terry Smith, who’s calling in from his home on the island of Mauritius, where he now lives. Terry is the founder, CEO, and chief investment officer of an investment firm called Fundsmith. Fundsmith Equity Fund is the largest stock fund in the UK, I believe, with more than 27 billion in assets under management.

[00:03:35] 威廉·格林:彭博社将特里列入其亿万富翁指数,常称他为英国最受欢迎的基金经理。他无疑是最成功的基金经理之一,自 2010 年基金成立以来,累计回报率超过 600%,比 MSCI 世界指数高出约 200 个百分点。特里,很高兴见到你。非常感谢你加入我们。

[00:03:35] William Green: Bloomberg, which includes Terry on its index of billionaires, often describes him as the UK’s most popular money manager. He’s definitely one of the most successful, with a cumulative return of over 600 percent since the fund’s inception in 2010, which is roughly 200 percentage points or so better than the MSCI World Index. Terry, it’s lovely to see you. Thanks so much for joining us.

特里·史密斯:是的,很高兴能加入你们。到目前为止,我很享受这次活动。

[00:03:58] Terry Smith: Yeah, nice to join you. Enjoying it, so far.

威廉·格林:到目前为止我们开得不错,接下来再看看进展如何。我想问问你早年的经历。我在好几个地方读到过,你 1953 年出生在伦敦东区,家境贫寒,父亲有说开公交车的,也有说开卡车的。不管哪种说法,我猜那一片都算相对贫困的地带,你 1950 年代在那儿长大时,大概还留着不少大轰炸造成的破坏痕迹。

[00:04:01] William Green: So far, we’ll see how it goes from here. We’re off to a good start. I wanted to ask you about your early years. I’ve read in different places that you were born in the East End of London in 1953, and that you came from a very modest background as the son of a guy who I’ve read in different places, that he drove a bus, or he drove a truck, and My sense is either way that it was a relatively poor area that was probably damaged a lot by the Blitz when you were growing up there in the 1950s.

[00:04:29] 威廉·格林:我想知道,您能否跟我们聊聊,在东区长大是种什么样的体验,您的家庭是怎样的,以及早年那些岁月究竟如何塑造了后来的您。

[00:04:29] William Green: And I wondered if you could just give us a sense of what it was like growing up in the East End, what your family was like, and really how that, those early years shaped the person you’d become.

[00:04:38] 特里·史密斯:是的,我的意思是,那地方不太好看。正如您说得对,战后它仍然受到严重破坏,尤其是闪电战,到处都是轰炸留下的废墟,有些住房还是预制房屋,当时是作为临时住所搭建的。

[00:04:38] Terry Smith: Yeah, I mean, it wasn’t a very nice place. As you rightly say, I mean, it was still very damaged by the war the Blitz in particular, with lots of bomb sites and some of the housing was prefabricated housing, which was built for temporary accommodation.

[00:04:51] 特里·史密斯:那是一个很穷的地区。你要是看当时的数据,按教育设施和成绩来说,它算是当时西欧最差的城市行政区。我严格来说出生在西汉姆,福里斯特盖特,西汉姆,就是那样的地方,相当贫困。

[00:04:51] Terry Smith: And it was a very poor area. If you look at the statistics at the time for what it was worth, in terms of educational facilities and achievement, it was the worst metropolitan borough in Western Europe at that time. West Ham, which is where I technically was, Forest Gate, West Ham is where I was, so pretty poor.

[00:05:07] 特里·史密斯:我常跟人讲一个故事来说明这点。我当年在敖德萨路小学上学,1963 年那个严寒的冬天,学校用的是室外厕所,结果全冻住了。于是学校就让我们回家。我说回家,可不是就一天两天,这一放就是大概六个星期左右。

[00:05:07] Terry Smith: The story I always tell people, just to illustrate it, is I went to Odessa Road Primary School and in the very harsh winter of 1963 we had outside toilets and they froze over. And so we were sent home from school. And when I say sent home, I don’t mean for the day, I mean this lasted for about six weeks or something like that.

[00:05:24] 特里·史密斯:那本来是件好事,可惜家里还有个户外厕所,也冻住了,所以帮不上大忙。我和祖父母、父母、叔叔以及其他几个人住在一所非常简陋的房子里,那房子在我搬离后,在一次拆迁计划中被拆掉了。

[00:05:24] Terry Smith: And that would have been great, apart from the fact that we also had an outside toilet at home, which also froze over, so it wasn’t a big help. And the house I lived in with my grandparents and my parents and my uncle and various other people was a very modest house, which has been knocked down in some clearance program since I lived there.

[00:05:41] 特里·史密斯:他那里没有热水,没有浴室,也没有室内厕所。我的意思是,我基本上就是在那样的环境中长大的。关于这一切,我特别想说的一点是,它给了你巨大的动力去努力做得更好。跟我说说你的父母吧。嗯,正如你刚才提到的,我父亲是一名卡车司机,非常有天赋的司机。

[00:05:41] Terry Smith: And he had no hot running water, and he had no bathroom, and he had no toilet, inside toilet. I mean, that’s kind of where I was. And the one thing I would say more than anything else about all that is, It gives you a big incentive to try and do something better. And tell me about your parents. Yeah, my father was as you’ve touched upon already, a lorry driver, truck driver, very talented driver.

[00:06:02] 特里·史密斯:不一定,开公交车和卡车不必如此,但他还开过其他车辆。他曾在一家公司工作,他的不幸在于这家公司位于埃塞克斯,业务之一就是制造刹车衬片,我想他就是在那儿接触上石棉的。问题是他们使用了石棉,而这就成了他的致命伤。

[00:06:02] Terry Smith: Not, you don’t have to be to drive buses and lorries, but he drove other things as well. Worked for a company, his undoing was he worked for a company embarking in Essex, which amongst other things made brake linings, which I guess was where he got involved with them. And the problem was that they used asbestos and that was his undoing.

[00:06:18] 特里·史密斯:他得了人们所说的石棉肺,但这说法比较笼统。他得的是间皮瘤和肺癌,最终因此丧命,当时厂里整个班组的人都未能幸免。而我母亲做过各种很不起眼的工作,她当过清洁工,在制造飞镖靶的工厂干过,还在生产扫帚的工厂做过,等等。所以,我们家确实算是很穷苦的出身,说实话,是的。

[00:06:18] Terry Smith: He got People say asbestosis, but that’s a kind of loose term. He got mesothelioma and lung cancer and was wiped out by that in due course, as was the entire shift at the place. And my mother was worked in various very modest jobs, she was a cleaner, she worked in a factory making dartboards, she worked in a factory making brooms, and so on, so they were, yeah, it was a very poor sort of background, frankly, yeah.

威廉·格林:那你觉得自己的聪明才智是从哪儿来的?你父母都特别聪明吗,还是?

[00:06:40] William Green: And where do you think you got your intelligence from? Were both of your parents really smart, or?

[00:06:45] 特里·史密斯:我想我父亲就是那种被出身困住的人。他是十二个孩子中的一个,这相当惊人,十四岁就得辍学去工作,除此之外别无选择。

[00:06:45] Terry Smith: My father, I think, was one of these people who was trapped by his background, he was one of twelve children, which is pretty amazing, and had to leave school at fourteen and go to work, so there was no other alternative but to that.

[00:06:55] 特里·史密斯:好吧。但他显然是个非常聪明的人。在那个人们还在报纸上玩填字游戏的年代,他几乎天天赢得填字比赛。每周都会收到一本书或什么奖品,都是因为他赢了填字游戏。最终,在他去世前,他如愿以偿,成了一家冷链运输设施的管理人员,诸如此类。

[00:06:55] Terry Smith: Okay. But he was clearly a very intelligent man. He, in the time when people did crosswords in newspapers, he regularly won crossword competitions day in day out. Every week a book or something would arrive where he was winning crosswords. And he did eventually, before he died, aspired and became a manager of a cold storage transportation facility and things like that.

[00:07:13] 特里·史密斯:所以,你知道,他显然是个天生聪慧、有点脑力的人,但我觉得,他没受过相应的教育,没能充分发挥这份天赋。

[00:07:13] Terry Smith: So he you know, he was clearly a guy who had native intelligence, sort of brain power, who hadn’t backed the education to be able to capitalize upon it, I would say.

[00:07:22] 威廉·格林:我常想起我的祖父,他在伦敦长大,12 岁就辍学了,因为他是个穷苦的犹太孩子,来自移民家庭,到后来,鞋底磨穿得厉害,连用报纸都塞不住,因为根本没有东西能撑住那张报纸。

[00:07:22] William Green: Yeah, I often think of my grandfather who grew up in London and who left school at 12 because he was like this poor Jewish kid and didn’t have you know, from an immigrant family and didn’t have, at a certain point, the soul in his shoe had worn out so much that he actually couldn’t even hold it together with newspaper because there was nothing to hold the newspaper in.

威廉·格林:因此他成了一名裁缝学徒,但他同时也是世界级的桥牌高手。这让人不禁感叹,他的天赋有多高,却似乎被浪费了,因为他们只能从事这些体力活,或是报酬极低的工作。那么,您是否觉得自己深受这种背景的影响?我的意思是,我知道您之前说过,金钱对您来说确实很重要。

[00:07:41] William Green: And so he became an apprentice tailor, but he was a world class bridge player, which makes you realize how God, how much intelligence that must have been that sort of got wasted because they were just doing these menial jobs or really underpaid jobs. So do you feel like you’ve been very much shaped by that background? I mean, I know you’ve said before that you really money was important to you.

[00:08:01] 特里·史密斯:是的,钱,还有那种想逃离的感觉,跟想要钱差不多。我觉得,影响我思想最深的一件事,说来也怪,人们总爱问这些,我能说起的老师有不少,我母亲也能说上一说,但其中一件事是 1968 年,我去了阿普顿公园的 ABC 电影院,你知道,就在我们和西汉姆联足球场之间,我看了《龙凤斗智》那部电影。

[00:08:01] Terry Smith: Yeah, money and just the feeling of wanting to escape as much as just money, I think. I mean, the thing that, that more than anything affected my thinking, which is strange, people ask, they always ask things, and there are teachers I could talk about, and my mother I could talk about as well, but one of the things was in 1968, I went to the ABC cinema in Upton Park, which is you know, between us and the West Ham football ground, and I watched the Thomas Crown Affair, the movie.

[00:08:24] 特里·史密斯:我总说,你知道,主演是史蒂夫·麦奎因,这就是个很好的开头,他穿着好几套西装,开劳斯莱斯,驾滑翔机,还打马球,就像——我真的看完这部电影就想,外面还有另一个世界,不是吗?外面就是有另一个世界。

[00:08:24] Terry Smith: As I always say, you know, it’s Steve McQueen, that’s a pretty good start, he’s wearing several row suits, he drives a Rolls Royce and flies a glider and plays polo, it’s like, and I literally watched this thing and thought, there’s another world out there, isn’t there? There’s just another world out there.

[00:08:39] 威廉·格林:那你觉得,这也是你后来想收藏那些出现在电影里的漂亮汽车的开端吗?

[00:08:39] William Green: So you think that that was the start also of you wanting to collect all of these beautiful cars that had been in movies and the like?

[00:08:45] 特里·史密斯:是的,部分是,我碰巧还真有那辆劳斯莱斯,但没错,部分是那个原因,还有我父亲,他对汽车和摩托车非常感兴趣,我最早的照片里有一张就是我坐在父亲的摩托车上,所以我从小就能比较容易地学会骑摩托、开车,还能开飞机、直升机什么的,他在这方面绝对有天赋,不只是开公交和卡车,他还有一些超出那范围的天赋,我觉得很可能。

[00:08:45] Terry Smith: Yeah, partly, I’ve got that Rolls Royce, as it happens, but yeah, I partly that, and my father as well, he was very interested in cars and motorcycles and one of the earliest photographs I’ve got of me is me sitting on my father’s motorcycle and so I could sort of ride motorcycles and drive cars and fly planes and helicopters and things from a, you know, relatively easily, he definitely had a talent for it, it wasn’t just that he was buses and trucks, he was He had some talent beyond that, I think probably.

[00:09:11] 威廉·格林:是啊。所以现在我脑海里的画面,特里,就是你有点像投资界的史蒂夫·麦奎因。

[00:09:11] William Green: Yeah. So now the image I have in my mind, Terry, is that you’re sort of the Steve McQueen of the investing world.

[00:09:17] 特里·史密斯:嗯,碰巧的是,史蒂夫·麦奎因的本名不叫史蒂夫。

[00:09:17] Terry Smith: Well, as it happens, Steve McQueen’s first name wasn’t Steve.

[00:09:21] 威廉·格林:叫特里?

[00:09:21] William Green: It was Terry?

[00:09:22] 特里·史密斯:对,叫特伦斯,跟我一样。是的。

[00:09:22] Terry Smith: Yeah. Terrence, as is mine. Yeah.

[00:09:24] 威廉·格林:啊,那挺有意思的。

[00:09:24] William Green: Ah, that’s interesting.

[00:09:26] 特里·史密斯:我敢肯定这只是巧合,就像人们说的那样。

[00:09:26] Terry Smith: I’m sure it’s just a coincidence, as they say.

[00:09:29] 威廉·格林:是啊。他们是以你命名的。

[00:09:29] William Green: Yeah. They named him after you.

[00:09:31] 特里·史密斯:不。他生得比我早。所以……

[00:09:31] Terry Smith: No. He was born before me. So…

[00:09:32] 威廉·格林:不,我开玩笑的。我知道你是拳击的狂热粉丝,你聊过很多,而且后来,我想,你还练了泰拳。

[00:09:32] William Green: No, I’m kidding. I know you’re a big fan of boxing and you’ve talked a lot about and then became, I think, a Muay Thai practitioner as well.

[00:09:40] 特里·史密斯:是的,我练泰拳练得挺规律的。我去过泰国几次,在泰拳训练营里待过几周,接受泰拳训练。

[00:09:40] Terry Smith: Yeah, I do Muay Thai pretty regular. I mean, I’ve been to Thailand a couple of times and stayed in ma Thai camps for weeks and trained at Muay Thai.

[00:09:47] 特里·史密斯:我还练泰拳,我在这里赞助了一位泰拳女选手。她现在在柬埔寨。她刚在柬埔寨打了一场腰带赛。但我大多数日子都跟她一起训练,我在毛里求斯有一个拳击健身馆,是我买下来并配好设备,送给教练和孩子们用的,我偶尔出现,跟他们一起训练和切磋。我就像个稀罕物,一个出现的老白男。

[00:09:47] Terry Smith: And I do ma Thai, I sponsor a ma Thai fighter here in Maia. She’s actually in Cambodia at the moment. She just fought for a belt in Cambodia. But I train with her most days and I’ve got a gym a kickboxing gym here in Mauritius, which I, I bought and equipped and gave to the. The coach and the kids to use and I turn up occasionally and train and spar with them. I’m a kind of a curio, I’m this old white guy who turns up.

[00:10:10] 威廉·格林:这是不是因为你小时候来自一个比较艰苦的地区?跟我说说那段经历。

[00:10:10] William Green: And just does this grow out of coming from a relatively tough area as a kid. Tell me about that.

[00:10:18] 特里·史密斯:嗯,我上的是斯特拉特福文法学校,校服红得像只猫头鹰。实际上,我最近还路过那儿,那只混凝土猫头鹰雕像还在外面。

[00:10:18] Terry Smith: Well, I went to Stratford Grammar School, and I the school uniform was as red as an owl. In fact, I went past it quite recently, and the concrete owl statue is still outside.

[00:10:28] 特里·史密斯:校徽就是一只猫头鹰,印在帽子和西装外套上。我放学回家得路过那所现代中学,所以我在回家路上打架的次数比不打的还多。你可以想象,一个孩子去上当地那种被视为有点体面的学校,回家时头上顶着一只猫头鹰,穿着校服——我还不如直接画个靶子呢,你知道吗?

[00:10:28] Terry Smith: And so the badge was an owl, which was on your cap and your blazer. And I had to walk past the Secondary Modernist School on the way home, and so I got into a fight more nights than I did, really, on the way home. And if you can imagine, some kid going to the Sort of the local posh school as it was regarded a bit coming home with an hour on his head and his blazer was, I may as well have just drawn a target, you know?

[00:10:47] 特里·史密斯:后来我叔叔,住在我家的约翰叔叔,除了别的身份,还是个拳击手。所以经过几次之后,他说,我想我得教你打架了。他就真教了。这是我挺喜欢的事。我一直都喜欢。走进拳击馆,我觉得像回到家一样,不管是在伦敦、毛里求斯还是纽约的拳击馆。

[00:10:47] Terry Smith: And so I then my uncle who lived in the house, my uncle John was amongst other things, a boxer. And so after a bit of this, he said, I think I’m going to teach you how to fire. And so he did. And it was something I liked. I’ve, you know, always liked. I felt at home going into boxing gyms, so, you know, in boxing gyms, whether they’re in London or Mauritius or New York.

[00:11:07] 特里·史密斯:我一直挺喜欢走进那种地方的气氛。我在这里给孩子们建健身房的时候说过,我去看他们在市政厅里的训练场地,那里什么设施都没有,没有拳击台,东西也没地方放。我进去的时候,有个知道我容易心软的人带我去看他们训练,跟他们一起练什么的。他们问我,你最喜欢这里的什么?我说,他们让我想起我那个年纪的自己,你知道吗?这是他们的出口,是他们可能每周都期盼的事,你知道吗?

[00:11:07] Terry Smith: I’ve always kind of liked the atmosphere of going into them. It’s I said here when I was setting up the gym for the kids, I went to see them in a Municipal hall that they had where they had no facilities where they didn’t have a boxing ring and they couldn’t keep their stuff there and I went in there and somebody who knows I’m a bit of a softie for these things took me along to see them and train with them and so on and they said, well, what is it you most like about this? And I said, they just remind me of me when I was at their age, you know? This is their outlet, this is something which they probably look forward to every week, you know?

[00:11:37] 威廉·格林:等等,你觉得你那个年纪是什么样子的?

[00:11:37] William Green: Wait, what do you think you were like at that age?

[00:11:41] 特里·史密斯:我那个年纪是什么样?我不知道,这很难说,可能害羞、专注,我想,那个年纪大概是这样。海绵。

[00:11:41] Terry Smith: What was I like at that age? I don’t know, it’s difficult to, probably shy, intense, I would say, probably, at that age. Sponge.

[00:11:52] 威廉·格林:海绵,是啊,我读过你写的一篇文章,我想大概是 2011 年,写的是“冒烟”乔·弗雷泽,那位伟大的拳击手刚去世,才 67 岁,肝癌。里面有段很精彩的引文,你引用了乔治·福尔曼的话:“我一直把他打倒,他一直站起来。六次之后我被授予世界冠军,比赛被叫停时他还在试图打我。”我在想,这对我来说,那种韧性和决心显然在你个人层面产生了共鸣。

[00:11:52] William Green: Sponge, yeah, I read an article that you wrote, I think back probably in 2011 when smoking Joe Frazier that the great boxer had just died, relatively young, I think 67 of liver cancer, and there was a beautiful quote there where you quoted George Foreman saying, I kept knocking him down and he kept getting up, after 6 times I was awarded the championship of the world, he was still trying to get me when they stopped the fight, and I was wondering, that seemed to me, There’s something about that resilience and determination that clearly resonates for you personally.

[00:12:27] 特里·史密斯:是的,我知道,我非常敬佩那样的人。我是说,显然阿里,在那个年代,被视为不可思议。他确实是,但有点——他可能不是史上最伟大的职业重量级拳手。我觉得乔·刘易斯和洛基·马西亚诺的战绩更好。他可能不是史上最伟大的重量级拳手。

[00:12:27] Terry Smith: Yeah, I know, but I much admire people like that. I mean, people, obviously Ali, certainly on that, in that era, was regarded as fantastic. And he was, but a bit He probably wasn’t the greatest professional heavyweight of all time. I think Joe Lewis and Rocky Marciano got better records. He probably wasn’t the greatest heavyweight of all time.

[00:12:43] 特里·史密斯:特奥菲洛·史蒂文森,古巴业余拳手,战绩也非常出色。但他是一个巨大的全球偶像。正因为如此,他需要——这也是我写那篇文章想表达的一点——他独自成不了那样的人。他需要跟别人打。特别是福尔曼和弗雷泽,还有肯·诺顿和其他一些人,如果没有这些人,他不可能那么伟大。

[00:12:43] Terry Smith: Teofilo Stevenson, the Cuban amateur, had a fantastic record as well. But he was a huge global personality. And in so being, he needed, and that’s why I tried to bring out the article, he couldn’t be that on his own. He needed to fight other men. And Fullman and Fraser in particular, but also Ken Norton and some others, if he hadn’t had those, he couldn’t have been great like that.

[00:13:02] 特里·史密斯:但那些对手必须跟他风格不同,因为如果他们风格相同,就不会有那么好的效果。他们要用不同的风格来对抗对手。我觉得这体现出一个道理:你的敌人和你交锋的对象塑造了你。你与他们交手的方式,塑造了你。

[00:13:02] Terry Smith: But those men that you thought were different to him, because if they weren’t different, it wouldn’t have worked. They need to be different styles to engage the enemy. And one of the things that I think it brings out is that your enemies and those you engage with shape you. The way that you engage with them and so on, it shapes you.

[00:13:18] 特里·史密斯:人们对“冒烟”乔的一个常见印象是,他像个蛮力重炮手之类的。他不是那样的。你看看第一场比赛的分析,那场在麦迪逊广场花园的“世纪之战”,他把阿里击倒并打碎了他的下巴。

[00:13:18] Terry Smith: And one of the sort of common sort of thoughts that people have on Smoke and Joe was that he was a sort of slugger and so on. He wasn’t that. He was, if you look at the analysis of the first fight, the fight of the century in Madison Square Garden, where he knocked Ali down and broke his jaw.

[00:13:34] 特里·史密斯:埃迪·富奇,他的教练,对他做了非常有针对性的训练。他研究出阿里打不出有效的上勾拳,在那个位置有破绽。所以他说,一旦进入范围,你就出拳。最后他抓住机会,把自己整个人甩出去打了一记。这就是埃迪·富奇的厉害之处,因为拳击,你知道,人们以为那只是暴力。

[00:13:34] Terry Smith: Eddie Fuchs, his trainer, had trained him very specifically. He worked out that Ali couldn’t throw an effective uppercut and was vulnerable at that point. And so he said, whenever you get within range, you frog. And eventually he caught him throwing himself a gun. And it was just a piece of, Eddie Fuchs, because boxing is, you know, people think it’s just violence.

[00:13:52] 特里·史密斯:但不然,成功的拳击背后也包含相当多的分析。埃迪·富奇训练了击败阿里的五个人中的四个。这可能不是巧合。很可能不是巧合。

[00:13:52] Terry Smith: But no, there’s a fair amount of analysis goes into successful boxing as well. Eddie Fuchs trained four of the five men who beat Ali. That’s probably not a coincidence. Probably not a coincidence.

[00:14:02] 威廉·格林:想到你的人生——我们等会儿当然会随着对话展开聊更多——你有一种好斗的名声,而且我觉得,就那种驱动力和韧劲而言,你从伦敦东区走出来,成为亿万富翁,取得你那样的成就,一定需要这些东西。

[00:14:02] William Green: When I think of your life, and we’ll get into this, obviously, a lot more as this conversation unfolds, there is something about Your reputation as being this kind of combative guy and there’s also something I think just in, in terms of the drive and the grit that it must have taken for you to get out of the East End of London and become a billionaire and be as successful as you’ve been.

[00:14:27] 威廉·格林:你想到自己的时候,你觉得自己是个斗士,是个有点 defiant 的人吗,你觉得自己是好斗而坚定的人吗?你对自己的形象是怎么看的?

[00:14:27] William Green: When you think of yourself, like, does the image of you as a sort of, as a fighter, as someone who’s kind of defiant, is that sort of your Combative and determined, like what’s your own image of yourself?

[00:14:39] 特里·史密斯:我不太那样看自己,我觉得我其实是个大软心肠。我真的这么觉得,你知道,我觉得在很多方面确实如此,我想很多了解我的人会告诉你这一点。

[00:14:39] Terry Smith: I don’t really see myself that way, I think I’m a big softie actually. I really do, you know, and I think I am in many respects, I think a lot of people who know me well might tell you that.

[00:14:50] 特里·史密斯:跟人们眼中的那个公众形象相反。你看我的 WhatsApp,上面可以写一句短语,我那儿就放了一句。我喜欢电影,顺便说一句,除了《龙凤斗智》,我还以爱好为由投资过一些电影——那确实是爱好,不算是投资——我每个月跟朋友搞一次电影之夜,我有个私人的小电影院,我负责安排放映什么的。

[00:14:50] Terry Smith: As opposed to the sort of the public image that people have got. If you look on my on my WhatsApp where you can put a phrase, I’ve got a phrase up there. I like movies, by the way apart from the Thomas Crown Affair, I’ve financed movies a bit as a hobby, it is a hobby, it’s not really an investment, and I have movie night once a month with, you know, friends, I’ve got a private, little private cinema and I run that in etc.

[00:15:09] 特里·史密斯:那句引文来自一部邪典电影《十三号警署突袭》,现在可能没多少人听说过了,讲的是一个囚犯,我想是被押往死囚牢房的路上,在一辆囚车里。车被改道到一个正在关闭的警察局。里面有个嫌疑人,他跟一个帮派发生了冲突。

[00:15:09] Terry Smith: The quote is from the movie the cult movie, Assault on Precinct 13, which Not many people will have heard of now, but it’s about a convict who’s on the way, I think, to death row, and he’s been in a bus. The bus gets diverted to a police station, which is closing down. And there’s some suspect in there who’s been involved in a clash with a gang.

[00:15:25] 特里·史密斯:那帮人冲过来袭击警察局,想把他救出来。结果呢,那个逃犯、一个姑娘、还有一个警察,三个人拼了命地跟这帮人干。中间有一段,姑娘问他,她说,我不明白的是,你怎么没跑。因为她派人出去搬救兵了。

[00:15:25] Terry Smith: And the gang come and attack the police station to get him. And, of course, it ends up with the convict, a girl, and a policeman fighting for their lives against all this. And at one point, the girl says to him what I can’t understand, she said, is why you didn’t take off, because they sent somebody out to get help.

[00:15:40] 特里·史密斯:她说,你怎么不顺着那条排水沟跑掉,就那么一走了之,那样你早跑了。他说,人生有两样东西,一个男人绝不该逃避,哪怕搭上性命。一样是一个无助的、没法跟着他一起跑的人。我就喜欢这个。没错,我基本上就喜欢这种态度。

[00:15:40] Terry Smith: Why didn’t you take off down that drain and just leave it, because then you could have escaped. And he says There are two things in life a man should never run from, even if it costs him his life. One of them is a man who’s helpless and can’t run with him. And I like that. Yeah, I like that approach basically.

[00:15:55] 特里·史密斯:我觉得,这比那种——别人可能以为你要说的是——更有一种无私的味道。那句台词在“一样是一个无助的、没法跟着他一起跑的人”那儿就完了。有人说你只引了半句,其实台词就到那儿,因为姑娘接着问他,那另一样是什么?他只是看着她。我这人其实心挺软。

[00:15:55] Terry Smith: And I don’t think, it’s not, it’s a somewhat more selfless approach, I think, than the one that People might think that you’re talking about portraying their cause the quote ends people think that the quote which ends there One of them is a man who’s helpless and can’t run with him and the quote ends here And they say you’ve only got half the question and the quote does end there because the girl says to him What’s the other one and he just looks at her? The toothed brother I’m a big softie really.

[00:16:19] 威廉·格林:是啊,这又说到,就像那位大诗人说的,我们内心包罗万象嘛。你可以是个心软的人,同时也可以相当强硬。

[00:16:19] William Green: Yeah. Well again, I mean as Is the great plan said we contain multitudes right I mean you can be a softie and also be pretty tough.

[00:16:27] 特里·史密斯:有时候是这样,我觉得没错。我会说,这有点像——得看情形、看情况、看我跟谁在一起、在做什么,还有好多别的因素。但你没法——

[00:16:27] Terry Smith: Sometimes yeah, I think that’s right I would say it’s a bit like that depends on the circumstances in the situation and who I’m with and what I’m doing and lots of other things but you don’t.

[00:16:38] 特里·史密斯:你没法从我当时那个出身,走到今天这个位置,没有极强的决心是不可能的。没错。这不是碰巧发生的。我有个同学,是我上学时最好的朋友,到现在还保持着联系。其实,我跟他还保持着联系,也跟我五岁时坐我旁边那个家伙保持联系,这事儿挺有意思的。

[00:16:38] Terry Smith: You don’t get out of where I was to where I am without a lot of determination, obviously. Yeah. It doesn’t happen by accident. My classmate who is my best friend in school, who I’m still in touch with, in fact, I’m in touch with both him and the guy I sat next to when I was five, which is interesting.

[00:16:53] 特里·史密斯:哈!他跟我保证,我们班那些男孩里头,到现在还自由自在、没死掉的,就剩下我和他了。真的吗?是啊,他这人吧,因为他留在伦敦,联系的人比我多,他大概就是说,你瞧,就咱们俩还活着、没进监狱的。

[00:16:53] Terry Smith: Ha! And he assures me that out of the sort of the boys in our class, the only two who are at liberty and not dead are me and him. Really? Yeah, he kind of, because he stayed in London and kept in touch a little more than I did, he sort of said stop. You know, the only two guys who were left alive and not in prison.

[00:17:12] 威廉·格林:哈,真了不起。那你在那些年有很棒的榜样吗?我是说,有没有哪位老师、或者某个运动员、某个人?或者你认识的人里,有谁在做投资、或者在生意上做得不错的?有没有什么人,你看着他心里想——除了电影里那些——让我更像他一点?

[00:17:12] William Green: Huh, that’s amazing. So did you have great role models in those years? I mean, was it, was there a teacher or an athlete or someone? I mean, did, or people you knew who invested or did well in business? Was there anyone you looked to and you thought, beyond the movies, let me be more like them?

[00:17:28] 特里·史密斯:做生意的人嘛,我压根不可能从那儿起步。做生意这回事,在我二十多岁之前,除了打各种零工,我根本没接触过。我有个很好的小学老师,怀特豪斯先生,我小学最后一年他带我。他基本上——嗯,我想想,如果你问我他做了什么没有,他大概给了我帮助和推动力,帮我通过了升学考试,进了当地最好的文法学校。

[00:17:28] Terry Smith: Anyone in business, I mean, I couldn’t possibly have started there. I mean, business wasn’t something I encountered other than doing various menial jobs until I was in my 20s. I had a good primary school teacher, Mr. Whitehouse, my last year of primary school. He basically Yeah, I guess if you said, what did he do if anything at all, he probably gave me help, impetus, if you like, to pass the 11 plus and get to the best grammar school in the area.

[00:17:50] 特里·史密斯:所以我一直很怀念他。挺怀念的,虽然他有的时候相当严厉,你要知道,那个年代是允许体罚的。他确实挺严的。后来我上中学的时候,有个教历史的老师,丹尼斯·布洛,他帮了我很多。要知道,我家里头从来没有人上过大学,对吧?

[00:17:50] Terry Smith: So I remember him fondly. Fondly, although he was quite tough sometimes, you know, I mean, this was an era of corporal punishment, you know, I mean, he was quite tough. And then when I was in secondary school, Dennis Blow, my history teacher, who, Bear in mind, nobody in my family had ever been to university, right?

[00:18:05] 特里·史密斯:所以说,考出成绩、上大学,那个申请大学的过程,没人——我回家没法说,“你觉得我该怎么做?”那根本没用。所以他在这事上帮了我不少。他是教历史的,而且比任何人都更多地点燃了我对历史的热爱。

[00:18:05] Terry Smith: So, you know, getting the grades and going to university was a process of applying for university, which nobody, I couldn’t go home and say, what do you think I should do? It wasn’t going to work terribly well. And so he kind of helped me with that. And he was a history teacher and he’s the guy more than anybody else kindled my love of history.

[00:18:21] 特里·史密斯:后来我去了他自己读过的那所大学读历史学位。现在回想起来,那对我帮助很大。我本来也可以去别的大学读别的专业,有人就说,哎呀你本来能去牛津、剑桥的。我对自己当时的选择非常满意,因为在那整个思考和申请的过程中,有他的帮助和支持。

[00:18:21] Terry Smith: And I went and did a history degree at the university that he himself had attended. And that was a big help when I think about it. I could have done other things at other universities and people said, oh, you could have gone to Oxford, Cambridge. I’m very happy that I did what I did because I had his sort of help and support in thinking through that process in doing it.

[00:18:38] 特里·史密斯:还有好多别的事。回到你刚才说的,那个决心吧。我母亲。我母亲是我这辈子见过的最善良的人,就我所知。她从没伤害过任何人。她要是伤了谁,她自己会羞愧得要命。她是那种人——当然,我们说的是另一个年代,那时候去店里买东西是这样的——

[00:18:38] Terry Smith: And lots of different things. Going back to the, you know, written determination. My mother. My mother was the kindest person I think I’ve ever met, as far as I know. She never harmed anybody. She would be mortified if she harmed anybody. Sort of person who, I mean, obviously we’re dealing in a different era in terms of going into shops and buying things.

[00:18:52] 特里·史密斯:如果她从店里出来,发现店家多找了她钱,她会马上回去把钱还给人家,对吧?光是想想这事她都会觉得受不了。她那种,现在人们会叫做“道德罗盘”的东西,我觉得相当重要——就她怎么对待别人而言。还有我舅舅约翰,我前面提过,他是个拳击手,偶尔也干点坏事。他是个好人。

[00:18:52] Terry Smith: If she came out and the shop had given her too much change, she would be back in there giving it to them, right? She’d be mortified by that idea. And her kind of, you know, what people would now call moral compass was quite an important thing, I think, as well. In terms of how she treated people, I think. My Uncle John, who I mentioned earlier, he was a boxer and sometime villain. He was a good guy.

[00:19:15] 威廉·格林:哪种坏人?

[00:19:15] William Green: What sort of villain?

[00:19:16] 特里·史密斯:就是那种坏坏的坏人。我是说,那是伦敦东区。那个年代伦敦东区一带的风气就是这样,他这人参与的是那类勾当。

[00:19:16] Terry Smith: A villainous villain. I mean, this is the East end of London. The craze around the East end of London during this period, you know, he was a guy who was involved in in operations of that sort.

[00:19:28] 威廉·格林:嗯,有意思。真有意思。那咱们回到你的职业轨迹——你上了斯特拉特福德文法学校,那所学校非常好,而且我没记错的话,你还拿了物理奖,你显然是个聪明的孩子。后来你去加的夫大学读历史,我没记错的话,你拿了头等学位,1974 年毕业的。

[00:19:28] William Green: Yeah. Interesting. Very interesting. And so then to get back to your trajectory of your career, so you had gone to Stratford grammar school, this very good school and I think I’m right in saying you won the physics prize, you’re obviously a smart kid, you went to the university in Cardiff to study history, I think I’m right in saying you got a first class degree, graduated in 74.

[00:19:50] 威廉·格林:然后你去了巴克莱银行,待了几年——准确说是九年,对吧——大概从 1974 年开始。你刚去的时候可不是什么光鲜的活儿,你是以毕业生培训生的身份进去的,最后做到了分行经理。能讲讲你在巴克莱早期的那些年吗,它是怎么把你带进一个不同的世界、让你用不同的方式看待这个世界的?

[00:19:50] William Green: And then you went off and got a job at Barclays and you spent a few years, well you were there for nine years, right, starting around 1974 and it was not glamorous when you started, I mean you joined as a graduate trainee and ended up becoming a bank manager, can you talk about those early years at Barclays and, you know, how it sort of shifted you into a different world and different way of thinking about the world?

[00:20:15] 特里·史密斯:我以前也说过,咱们待会儿大概还会聊导师这个话题。我当时选巴克莱,纯粹是——我大学毕业的时候压根不知道自己想干嘛。所以我参加了所有那些所谓的“校园招聘面试”,好多公司来学校招人。我被金属盒公司、联合利华、玛莎百货、巴克莱、国民西敏寺银行都面过,所有这些公司都面了。

[00:20:15] Terry Smith: I again, we’ll talk about mentors a bit probably but the I chose Barclays. I mean, I didn’t have a clue what I wanted to do when I left, when I was in university. So I went to all these so called milk round interviews where companies come and I was interviewed by the metal box company, by Unilever, by Marks Spencer’s, by Barclays, by NatWest, all these companies.

[00:20:32] 特里·史密斯:那怎么决定呢?我做的决定,你可能会觉得有点怪——我选了那个面试最难对付的。我想,行,我就跟那个叫罗杰·布罗克赫斯特的家伙干。我记得很清楚,他面试最狠。我想,我喜欢这帮人。所以我就去给他们干活了。

[00:20:32] Terry Smith: And how to make a decision. I made it by on the, you might consider perverse basis of the one that gave me the toughest interview. I thought, yeah, I’m going to go with that guy called Roger Brocklehurst. I remember him well, gave me the toughest interview. I think I like these guys. So I went and worked for them.

[00:20:46] 特里·史密斯:那是个培训项目。他们什么课程都让我上——法律、会计等等,信贷,全过了一遍。这非常好。我经常跟那些来问我职业建议的人说:先找份工作,把所有的培训课程都上了。这是第一位的。我记得是露西·凯拉韦在《金融时报》上写过,说那个网络泡沫时代、极客经济和数字时代,对很多一心只想创业的年轻人,造成了很大的误导。

[00:20:46] Terry Smith: It was a training program. They put me through courses on everything you can imagine. Law, accounting, etc. Credit, through all that. Which is very good. And I always say to people ask me for career advice. I say, get a job, take all the training courses. Number one, right. I think it was Lucy Kellaway writing the FT said that the sort of the dot com era of the geek economy and the digital age have done great disservice to some young people who just want to start a business.

[00:21:10] 特里·史密斯:先去积累点经验,对吧?先去受点培训,然后再考虑创业那些事。所以我把这些都做了。后来,巴克莱在 1973 到 1975 年的第二次银行危机中差点破产,他们自己的管理会计简直糟透了。基本上等于没有。他们只有经审计的财务报表,还是在财年结束三个月后才做出来。

[00:21:10] Terry Smith: Now, go and get some experience first, right? Go and get some training first, then have a think about all that. So I did all of that, and then they, Barclays had nearly gone bust in the 73 75 secondary banking crisis, and their own management accounting was lamentable. I mean they had none, basically. They had audited accounts, which were produced three months after the year end.

[00:21:30] 特里·史密斯:你拿过来看,能看到资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表。但说到有预算、按预算监控、算出你在资产、负债和利率上的敞口——什么都没有。我当时发现这点就说过,要按我们自己的管理信息水平,我们是绝不会把钱贷给一家这样的公司的,对吧?

[00:21:30] Terry Smith: You could look at them and see the balance sheet, the income statement, the cash flow. But actually having a budget and monitoring against budget and working out what your exposure was for assets and liabilities and interest rates and nothing. I always said when I discovered this, I said we would never have lent money to a company with our level of management information, right?

[00:21:48] 特里·史密斯:总之,他们把我从商业银行的培训岗位上调出来,送我去读 MBA。他们把我送到亨利管理学院去念。那是一个非常特别、或者说与众不同的 MBA——三个月在课堂里,三个月到一家公司里,再三个月去另一家。就这么轮着来。

[00:21:48] Terry Smith: Anyway, what they did was they brought me out of what I was doing in training for commercial banking and sent me off to do an MBA. They sent me to Henley, to the management college and I did it. Very peculiar or different kind of MBA, one with different you did three months in classrooms, three months in a company, three months ago.

[00:22:04] 特里·史密斯:我这么着跨了不同的行业,学了好多不同的东西,比如生产工程、人力资源、人力规划之类的。在不同机构之间轮换。他们事先没告诉我的是,他们正要组建一个财务部门。

[00:22:04] Terry Smith: And I did that across different businesses and learned a lot of different things like production engineering and human, you know, human resources management and all kinds of stuff like that, manpower planning. With different organizations and they hadn’t told me this, but they were going to form a finance department.

[00:22:20] 特里·史密斯:他们找了一个叫约翰·斯宾塞的家伙,他之前在毕马威干过,他们让他当部门主管。他们还让一个叫德里克·范德威尔的人当了第一任 CFO。这个约翰·斯宾塞,我到现在还跟他保持着友谊,到今天还是朋友,到今天还在共事。

[00:22:20] Terry Smith: So they had a guy called John Spencer who’d been with Pete Marwick and they made him head of the department. They made a guy called Derek Vandewaer as the first sort of CFO really. This guy John Spencer who I’m still friends with to this day, friendly with to this day, still work together with to this day.

[00:22:36] 特里·史密斯:快 50 年了。还有一个是从斯莱特·沃克来的——那家公司当时刚刚爆掉,就是吉姆·斯莱特的收购帝国——加上我,还有另外几个董事,他们说:你就是财务部了。我说,那我们都干点什么?他们想从零开始建一套管理会计、管理信息、预算、预测、规划的体系。

[00:22:36] Terry Smith: After nearly 50 years and a guy from Slater Walker which had you know, blown up very recently, the Jim Slater acquisition Bureau, me and a couple of other boards, and said, you are the finance department. And like, what do we do? We wanted to create this management, accounting, management information, budgeting, forecasting, planning theme from scratch.

[00:22:55] 特里·史密斯:所以接下来的三四年,我就一直坐在那儿干这个活。那可真不错。我有个好老板,他也算是个好导师,而且他特别喜欢玩帆船。我碰上了一种好事儿——我觉得这种好事儿你有时候确实能碰上——就是他一不在的时候,我就顶他的活。这样一来,他就能溜出去六个星期去玩帆船了。

[00:22:55] Terry Smith: And so I got to sit there and do that for the next three or four years. And that was great. And I had a good boss insofar as. He was a good mentor and he really liked to go sailing and I got the, one of those deals, which I think you do get sometime, which is I did his job when he was away, which meant he could go off for six weeks and go sailing.

[00:23:12] 特里·史密斯:所以我学到了特别多东西。因为干这个,我很早就挑起了不少担子。这么说吧,我基本上就是首席财务官手下的那个经理,管着银行的钱袋子,差不多就是这个意思。你觉得呢?

[00:23:12] Terry Smith: And so I learned an awful lot. I got an awful lot of early responsibility doing that. So, you know, I was basically the manager straight underneath the CFO managing the bank’s finances, if you like. And What do you think?

[00:23:23] 威廉·格林:你靠的是钻到引擎盖底下看门道,这一点其实很重要——因为,很明显,这是你选股成功的一个关键,你懂账。那你真在内部待过、钻到引擎盖底下看的时候,你看到了什么?

[00:23:23] William Green: you learned by looking under the hood and actually, because obviously, I mean, this has been part of your, you, the key to your success as a stock picker, is that you understand the accounts. What did you see by actually being on the inside and looking under the hood?

[00:23:39] 特里·史密斯:看到的东西多了去了。我是说,能看到太多太多的东西。其中一个就是,现金流和利润完全是两码事。不过,它们显然是有关系的。应计利润,或者说权责发生制会计,其实就是把现金流摊到各个报告期里去的一种办法。

[00:23:39] Terry Smith: Loads of things. I mean, lots and lots of things that you see. I mean, one of them is cash flows and profits are completely different things. But, I mean, they are clearly related. Accrual profits or accrual accounting is a way of spreading cash flows across reporting periods.

[00:23:50] 特里·史密斯:但是,你可能赚了不少利润,照样破产。这两件事吧,不是那么——你得特别小心那些靠杠杆或者借钱才能运转的生意,银行就是这样,对吧?因为一旦你处在 20 倍杠杆那种位置,成败之间的容错空间就非常非常小,破产不用花多长时间,真的,你要是在那上面冒风险,很快就完蛋了。

[00:23:50] Terry Smith: But, you know, you can have plenty of profits and go bust. It’s, you know, it’s the two things are not that, you know, that you’ve got to be very careful with businesses that require leverage or borrowing in order to function, which banking does, right? Because the margins for error in terms of success or failure are very slim at that point when you’re on 20 to one leverage or something like that, it doesn’t take long to go bust, you know, it really, you can do it quite quickly by taking risks, you know, in that regard.

[00:24:17] 特里·史密斯:所以有很多很多我后来一直——但是,在我干那份工作的那段时间里,现在的投资者关系这一行,公司里都有投资者关系专员,那时候根本不存在。没那回事。谁家都没有,一个都没有。所以情况是什么呢?那些叫券商分析师的人会打电话来。

[00:24:17] Terry Smith: So lots, there are lots of things I’ve been, but in the course of doing that job, in those days, the investor relations industry, which we’ve now got where companies have IR officers, so didn’t exist. There was no such thing. Nobody had one, not even one. So what would happen is these people called brokers analysts would ring up.

[00:24:32] 特里·史密斯:他们要找财务总监,而财务总监不爱接他们电话,所以他就把电话转给我老板,可我老板又不在,那就转到我这儿了。于是电话就响起来,是伦敦或者纽约哪儿的券商打来的,开始追着我问业绩啊、来年怎么样啊、有什么动向啊,还有我们在房地产贷款或者欠发达国家贷款上是什么位置,诸如此类。

[00:24:32] Terry Smith: And they would ask for the finance director, who didn’t like taking their calls, so he put them through to, well, my boss, but he wasn’t there, so, me. So the phone would ring, and it would be a stockbroking firm in London or New York, whatever, who would start questioning me about the results or the forthcoming year and what was going on and where we were positioned in relation to property lending or less developed country lending or whatever.

[00:24:54] 特里·史密斯:这些人全都由我来应付,这倒也没什么,还从他们那儿学到了不少东西,知道市场是怎么看我们的。时间一长呢,也有投资者亲自上门,比如资本集团那种公司的人,他们来访谈,我就跟他们讲这些。后来有一天,其中一个跟我说,你这是在浪费时间,你知道吗?

[00:24:54] Terry Smith: And I dealt with all these people, and that was fine, and learned quite a lot from them about how the market viewed us. Over time, and I had investors who would come in as well, you know, from Capital Group and people like that, and they’d come in to interview, and I would tell them about that. And then eventually, one of them said to me, you’re wasting your time, you know that don’t you?

[00:25:13] 特里·史密斯:我说,你说我浪费时间是什么意思?他说,你将来会干得相当好。我说,是啊,他们也跟我说过,说我大概在快车道上,有一天说不定能进董事会什么的。他说,这我百分之百确定。他又说,但是啊,你也就是有份职业,当个银行里相当重要的人物,然后就这样了。

[00:25:13] Terry Smith: And I said, what do you mean I’m wasting my time? He said, you’re going to do very well. I said, yeah, they’ve told me, sort of, I’m on the fast track up towards the board, possibly, or something like that, one day. And he said, I’m absolutely certain. And he said, but. You really, you’re just going to have a career, and you’re going to be quite an important guy in a bank, and then that’s going to be that.

[00:25:30] 特里·史密斯:他说,我觉得你应该来我们这一行干,那里的回报大得多。当然,你要是失败了,可没有你在这儿工作能拿到的那个降落伞。他说,不过我觉得你不会失败。他又说,你更像——这是一门合伙生意。

[00:25:30] Terry Smith: He said, I think you should come and work in our industry, where the rewards are much greater. Obviously if you fail, then there’s not the same sort of parachute that you might get in your job here. He said, but I don’t think you will. And he said, you’ve been far more like you. This is a partnership.

[00:25:46] 特里·史密斯:你最后能给自己当老板。他说,我觉得你明白我的意思。我说,哦,行吧。所以我辞职离开了银行,跑去当了个银行分析师,把所有人都惊着了。硬是把管理层的人员流动率提高了整整百分之百。因为没人辞职往外走的。我说,没事儿,我就是要当银行分析师。然后我去了家券商,成了银行分析师。

[00:25:46] Terry Smith: You’ll end up being your own boss. He said, and I think you get it and I said, Oh, okay. So I quit the bank and went off and became a bank analyst much to the shock of everybody involved. Who increased the managerial turnover by literally a hundred percent. Like people don’t quit and go off. I said, well, no, I’m going to be I’m going to be a bank analyst. And I went and I joined a stockbroking firm and I became a bank analyst.

[00:26:07] 威廉·格林:所以你就跑去当分析师了,我记得先是去了家叫 W·格林威尔公司的地方,后来你去了巴克莱德佐特·韦德,在那儿一直待到 80 年代末。你在那儿有个很出名的故事,好像是说你刚加入当银行分析师一个星期左右,就干了一件事,让你出了名——一个即使得罪了掌权的大人物也敢直说的人。给我们讲讲发生了什么。

[00:26:07] William Green: So you went off and you became an analyst, I think, first to a company called W Greenwell and Company, and then you ended up at Barclays Desoite Wed, which was where you were until the late eighties. And there’s a famous story told about your time there, I think about a week after you joined as a banking analyst, that sort of cemented your reputation as someone who would speak your mind, even when it annoyed the hell out of people in positions of power. Tell, tell us what happened.

[00:26:36] 特里·史密斯:其实不是我刚加入一个星期。我是 1986 年夏天去的,正好赶在伦敦金融大改革之前。然后我在临近圣诞节的时候写了篇关于银行业的文章,一份研究报告,留给他们去发表。那个年代是这样的,你把稿子留下,出版部门印出来,邮寄出去。

[00:26:36] Terry Smith: It wasn’t actually a week after I joined. I mean, I joined sometime in the summer of 1986, just before Big Bang in London. And then I wrote a piece on the bank sector, a piece of research in the run up to Christmas and left it for publication. These were the days when you left it, the publication department ran it out and mailed it to people.

[00:26:51] 特里·史密斯:然后我出去度假了,我不记得去哪儿了。我说我要在圣诞和新年期间出去,我把所有事都交给我副手管,手里还有这份研究报告要弄。反正呢,他出去吃午饭——那个年代人们确实会跟《金融时报》的银行业记者一起吃午饭——就给了人家一份。

[00:26:51] Terry Smith: And I went off for a holiday, I can’t remember where I went and so I said I’m going away over Christmas and New Year, and I left my number two in charge of everything, so I’ve got this research to do. Anyway, he went out for a lunch in the days when people did go for a lunch with the FT Banking Correspondent and gave him a copy.

[00:27:09] 特里·史密斯:结果当然,新年头一个工作日,金融界绝对一点新闻都没有。于是《金融时报》头版文章写着:巴克莱,BZW 建议卖出巴克莱。当然,所有人都彻底炸了锅。你知道,这是不允许的,人们一般不发表对自家公司的什么推荐评级,我就说,嗯,是啊。他们咬紧牙关咽了下去。

[00:27:09] Terry Smith: And of course, on the first working day of New Year, there was absolutely no news anywhere in the financial world. So the front page article of the Financial Times says, Barclays, BZW says sell Barclays. And of course, I mean, everybody went completely crazy about this. You know, that wasn’t allowed you people didn’t put out some recommendations generally anyway, you’re doing on the company that and I said, well, yeah, and they got through gritted teeth.

[00:27:32] 特里·史密斯:巴克莱的管理层说,哎呀,这简直太好了。这正好证明了我们投行子公司的独立性。然后我老板说,我觉得你得走了,因为你在这儿没有前途了。所以我就走了,就这样。你知道,我想,我这不是头一回把道德高地拔得太高,高到让人不舒服了。

[00:27:32] Terry Smith: The management of Barclay said, yes, it is absolutely wonderful. It proves the independence of our investment banking subsidiary and the boss said, I think you’re going to have to leave because you’ve got no career and so I left and that was that you know, I guess. You know, I’ve kind of, not for the first time I’ve reclaimed the moral high ground a notch too high for people’s comfort zone.

[00:27:53] 特里·史密斯:我得说,看看巴克莱后来发生的事,我是对的。因为那是 86 年,等 80 年代翻到 90 年代那会儿,他们因为房地产亏损太大,最后把股息都给砍了。我说的是他们没有能力在不产生高于平均水平的坏账的情况下放贷——这基本上就是我当时提出的核心观点。

[00:27:53] Terry Smith: I’ve got to say looking at what happened subsequently with Barclays, I was right because this was 86 and by the turn of the 80s into the 90s, they ended up cutting the dividend because of the size of their property losses. I was talking about their inability to lend without incurring higher than average bad debts was basically the thesis I was putting forward.

[00:28:10] 威廉·格林:然后你又上演了同样剧情的一个更戏剧化的翻版,这次你去了瑞银菲利普斯-德鲁。1990 年,你成了那里的英国公司研究主管。如果大家不记得这家公司的话,它当年在英国是家相当有名的投资银行、券商和资产管理公司。

[00:28:10] William Green: So you then there was an even more dramatic reprise of a similar story where you end up at UBS Phillips and Drew. So in 1990, became head of UK company research there. And for people who don’t remember this firm, it was a pretty prominent investment bank and stockbroker and asset manager in the UK.

[00:28:29] 威廉·格林:我记得菲利普斯-德鲁好像创立于 1880 年代,后来被瑞银收购了。所以你是在一个挺有意思的时点进来的,对吧?那时候有像波利佩克、英国及联邦这样的一堆公司,表面上看起来很健康,实际上却在走向破产。你带着你一贯的细腻、优雅和圆通,一脚踏进这摊浑水,然后干了什么?给我们讲讲发生了什么。

[00:28:29] William Green: And I think Phillips and Drew had been founded in like the 1880s and then acquired by UBS. And so. You come in at an interesting time, right? Where there are all these companies like Polypeck and British and Commonwealth that were going bankrupt while seeming to be in good health and you wade into this with your usual delicacy and gracefulness and tact and do what? Tell us what happened.

[00:28:53] 特里·史密斯:我可能确实比你说的更有分寸一些。所以,我跟一个搞交通运输的分析师一起合作。我说,咱们为什么不写一份研究报告,讲讲这事儿为什么会发生?为什么会有公司一边报出创纪录的利润,六个星期后就破产了?

[00:28:53] Terry Smith: I probably did show rather more tech than you’re giving me credit for. So, I together with a guy who was a transport analyst I’ve worked with him on it. I said, why don’t we write a piece of research about why this is happening? Why we’ve got companies which are reporting record profits and going bust six weeks later.

[00:29:07] 特里·史密斯:还是大公司,对吧?所以我们写了份研究报告,有二三十页长,研究了 12 种公司做假账的手段,它们就这样设法报出了不存在的利润,或者说没有现金流的利润,再或者把负债弄到合伙企业里去。我们写了这个,结果——姑且说个价值吧——被路透社那类机构评为当年伦敦出版的最佳研究报告。

[00:29:07] Terry Smith: Big companies, right? And so we wrote a research paper, 20 30 pages long, which looked at 12 methods by which companies cook the books, right, that they managed to report. Profits that didn’t exist, or profits without cash flows, or got liabilities out of a partnership. And we wrote that, and it was, for what it’s worth, voted the best piece of research published in London that year by the sort of Reuters.

[00:29:26] 特里·史密斯:所以你得多往回倒一点。瑞银为什么雇我?他们在雇我之前不久,刚卷入了一场叫“蓝箭”的风波。蓝箭是一家英国壳公司,由一个叫托尼·贝里的人经营,他好像有段时间拥有托特纳姆热刺足球队。他用这家壳公司去竞购一家大得多的公司,因为那是个叫万宝盛华的公司,一家总部在威斯康星州密尔沃基的临时工服务公司。

[00:29:26] Terry Smith: So you need to back up a bit. Why was I hired by UBS? They’d been involved in a thing called the Blue Arrow affair shortly before they hired me. Blue Arrow was a UK shell company run by a man called Tony Berry, who owned Spurs, I think, for a while the football club. And he used that to bid for a company, a much, much bigger company, because this was a shell company called Manpower, a temporary services company based in employment services company based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

[00:29:49] 特里·史密斯:那是一次巨额收购,他们发行了 7.5 亿英镑的可转债,这听起来挺大一笔钱,但请回想一下 1989 年,那笔交易的规模有多大。牵头行是巴克莱和国民西敏寺,也就是 BZW,抱歉,是瑞银和国民西敏寺。这次发行彻底砸了,因为这笔交易本身就是个彻底的烂货。

[00:29:49] Terry Smith: And it was a huge acquisition and they did a 750 million pound convertible, which sounds quite a lot of money, but try and think back to 1989 in terms of the size of that deal. It was done by the lead banks were Barclays and NatWest, so BZW and sorry, UBS and NatWest. And the issue was a complete flop, because the deal was a complete lemon.

[00:30:09] 特里·史密斯:他们没有承认自己手里压着这 7.5 亿英镑,而是把它记在了做市账簿上——这个账簿是免于披露的。这事儿后来曝光的时候,被看作是对两类人的一种冒犯。一类是机构投资者,因为其中有几家买了这些债券,虽然不多,但他们以为整个发行都卖完了——因为他们看到报纸上登了广告。

[00:30:09] Terry Smith: And instead of admitting that they were stuck with the 750 million pounds, they put it on their market making book, which was exempt from disclosure. Now, this was regarded, when it became apparent, as a bit of a foul by two people. One was the institutions, because a few of them had bought these bonds, not very many, but they thought the whole issue was sold, because they published a newspaper.

[00:30:28] 特里·史密斯:有点像,广告上说,发行成功,大获全胜之类的,你知道,他们因此感到有些懊恼,所以就不再和 UPS 这类公司打交道了,监管机构和警察部门也介入,逮捕了首席执行官、研究主管、交易主管和销售主管。

[00:30:28] Terry Smith: Sort of, advert saying, successful issue, triumph da, you know, and they felt a bit of grief, so they stopped dealing with people like UPS over it, and the regulatories and sort of, police authorities who went and arrested the CEO, the head of research, the head of trading, and the head of sales.

[00:30:43] 特里·史密斯:所以猎头打电话给我,说因为我做了好几年成功的银行分析师,七年,我算算,我一直是银行分析师。我想做点更有挑战的事,想研究整个市场,毕竟你知道,视野更广,而不是永远只盯着银行。

[00:30:43] Terry Smith: So the headhunter rang me up and said because I’ve been a bank analyst for a number of years successfully, seven years, I think I’ve been a bank analyst. I’d like to do something more. I’d like to do something looking at the whole market because you know, wider scope of things rather than doing banks forever.

[00:30:58] 特里·史密斯:我觉得自己对银行相当了解。我想尝试点新东西。于是他突然给我打电话说,看,瑞银因为那些逮捕事件有了个职位空缺。他们想聘你。我当时有点说,嗯,好啊,没问题。我愿意去。我又有点说,那么,你们想从我这儿得到什么?他们说,嗯,显然我们想盈利。

[00:30:58] Terry Smith: I think I know quite a bit about banks. I’d like to do something new. And so he rang me out of the blue and said look, UBS has got a vacancy because of these arrests. They’d like to hire you. And I sort of said, well, okay, fine. I’ll go for that. And I sort of said, well, what do you want out of me? And they said, well, obviously we want to be profitable.

[00:31:13] 特里·史密斯:我们希望您在机构那里重新夺回道德高地,您已经具备这一点。这又回到了签证债务问题。您以直言不讳著称,我们希望您能利用这一点来重建我们机构的声誉。所以我说当然可以。于是我发表了这篇研究报告,一切进展顺利。后来我接到了兰登书屋出版公司一位人士的电话,对方说如果您能写一本书,我们觉得可以卖得动。您能基于这个写一本书吗?我说可以,于是我去找瑞银管理层说,我收到了这个邀约。我觉得这可能是个好主意,因为你们正打算涉足更高端的业务领域。

[00:31:13] Terry Smith: We want you to reclaim the moral high ground with the institutions who you’ve got this. It comes back to the visa debt. You’ve got this reputation for. Telling things how they are and we’d like you to use that to rebuild our reputation institution. So I said sure So I published this piece of research and that was all very well done and so then I’ve got a phone call from somebody at Random house the publisher and said we think that we could sell a book if you could write a book Could you write a book based on I said, yeah, so I went to the UBS management said I’ve had this approach I think It might be a good idea because you’re trying to do this more high grain stuff.

[00:31:46] 特里·史密斯:他们说,嗯,好的。我说,我觉得这事能成,算是我们帽子上的一根漂亮羽毛吧。你们觉得呢?我说,嗯,如果你们愿意的话。于是我问,这本书是要以瑞银的名义出,还是以我特里·史密斯的名义出?他们说,以特里·史密斯的名义。我说,行,没问题。就这样,我写了那本书。

[00:31:46] Terry Smith: And they said, yeah, good. I said, I think this will be a sort of another sort of you know, a feather in our cap to doing that. What do you think? I said, yeah, if you want. So I said, do you want the book to be UBS’s book or Terry Smith’s book? I said, Terry Smith’s book. I said, fine. Okay. So I wrote the book.

[00:31:59] 特里·史密斯:当然,关键在于,过去也有人写过关于创造性会计的其他书籍,我绝不是第一个。但如果你回头看看其中一些,他们用的是公司甲收购公司乙这种例子,而我实际上用的是真实公司。对。等到书快出版时,出版商说,你引用了年报内容。

[00:31:59] Terry Smith: And of course the thing is other people have written other books on creative accounting in the past one, the first one, by any means. But if you look back to some of those, they use company A buys company B and I actually use real companies. Right. And when we got towards publication, the publisher said, you’ve quoted annual reports in there.

特瑞·史密斯:我说,是的。他说,我觉得你得给所有公司写信,告诉他们你在用那些内容,万一他们想主张版权呢。我说,那是公开文件。他说,给公司写信吧。我说,行,没问题。于是我给所有公司写了封信,说,我是特瑞·史密斯,正在出版一本关于会计的书。

[00:32:16] Terry Smith: I said, yes. He said, I think you need to write to all the companies and tell them that you’re using that in case they wish to claim copyright. I said, it’s a public document. And he said, write to the company. I said, okay, fine. So I wrote a letter to all the companies saying. I’m Terry Smith. I’m publishing a book on accounting.

[00:32:31] 特里·史密斯:我要引用你 1988 年年报里的一段话。希望没问题。如果不行,告诉我一声。当然,看到我的身份后,有几家公司意识到接下来会发生什么。紧接着,我就被瑞银董事长叫去,他说我们要叫停这本书,对吧?

[00:32:31] Terry Smith: I’m going to quote from your 1988 annual report. I hope that’s okay. Let me know if it’s not. Of course, having seen who I was and so a couple of the companies realized what was about to happen. And the next thing I know is I get called in by the chairman of UBS who says we’re going to stop this book, aren’t we?

[00:32:47] 特里·史密斯:我说,我觉得我们做不到。然后对方有点,我觉得你没听懂我刚才说的。我是让你停掉那本书。就这样,没别的。我想你会明白,书是我的,不是你的,因为我们当初就是这么约定的。好,我现在给你指令,你去跟他们说。我问,那我该给他们什么理由?

[00:32:47] Terry Smith: I said, I don’t think we can do that. And there was a sort of, I don’t think you’ve understood what I just said. I’m telling you to stop the book. Right. That’s it then. I think you find the books mine, not yours, because that’s what we agreed. Okay, I’m giving you the instruction, so you go and tell them. I said, what reason shall I give them?

[00:33:05] 特里·史密斯:这事肯定会引发一场大争论,你知道的。我跟一个出版商说过,注意“publicity”(宣传)和“publisher”(出版商)这俩词之间的联系,同一个动词,对吧?他写了一本关于会计的书,估计能卖个 5000 本左右。

[00:33:05] Terry Smith: Well, there’s going to be a huge row over this, you know, and I said, so I’m going to tell a publisher, note the connection between the word publicity and publisher, the same verb, right? That he’s got a book on accounting, which he’s, he thinks is going to sell about 5,000 copies or something like that.

[00:33:20] 特里·史密斯:但现在要讲一个很关键的部分。我说,你有没有读过一本叫《抓间谍者》的书,撒切尔夫人想禁掉的那本?我说,这本书主要讲一个军情五处的人抱怨自己养老金的事。我说,但书已经卖光了。我说,我们告诉你,我们要解雇你,还要起诉你。我说,行吧,于是我就被解雇、被起诉了,书也出版了。出版商觉得这是他见过最搞笑的事,不,是他很久没见过这么好的事了,特意停了一下印刷机,在书角上印了“他们想禁掉的书”这几个字。

[00:33:20] Terry Smith: But now there’s going to be a huge part. I said, have you come across a book called Spy Catcher that Mrs. Thatcher tried to ban? I said, it’s mainly about a guy who was in MI5 complaining about his pension. I said, but it’s sold out. I said, we’re telling you we’re going to fire you and sue you. I said, okay, and so I got fired and sued, the book got published, the publisher regarded this as the funniest thing he’d seen, no, the best thing he’d seen for a long time, stopped the press long enough to put across the corner the book they tried to ban.

[00:33:49] 威廉·格林:太不可思议了。我是说,你最初因为所谓的“严重行为不当”被停职,然后又被解雇,他们还起诉了你。据我了解,大约 18 个月后你不得不庭外和解,但你的书登上了畅销书榜首,把斯蒂芬·霍金挤下去了。你是投资界的斯蒂芬·霍金,不只是……(交叉对话)

[00:33:49] William Green: It’s amazing. I mean, you got suspended initially for quote unquote, gross misconduct. Then you’re fired. They sued you. So as I understand it you had to settle out of court after about 18 months, but the book was number one in the best sellers. I mean, it knocked Stephen Hawking. You are the Stephen Hawking of the investing world, not just [Crosstalk].

[00:34:12] 特里·史密斯:但确实如此,是啊。我的意思是,显然它不会那样发展。要不是他们尝试过,我是说,你知道,有些人可能读过并觉得它相当,我也不确定。有趣的是,我认为它在许多方面经受住了时间的考验。

[00:34:12] Terry Smith: But yes, it did. Yeah. I mean, but it clearly, it wouldn’t have done that. They hadn’t tried to, I mean, you know, some people might have read it and regarded it as quite, I don’t know. The interesting thing is, I think it has stood the test of time in a number of regards.

[00:34:23] 特里·史密斯:我觉得这更耐人寻味地映照了 40 年、甚至 40 多年、30 多年、35 年之后的岁月,我们在其中有些例子经受住了时间的考验。尤其是关于养老金会计的那一篇,我觉得特别经得起时间检验。所以,我认为这本书还算不错。

[00:34:23] Terry Smith: I think that’s a more interesting reflection of 40 years, over 40 years later, over 30 years later, 35 years later, we were It’s, there are examples in there which stand the test of time. The one on pension fund accounting, I think, in particular stood the test of time in there. So, I think it was an okay book.

[00:34:38] 特里·史密斯:不过,要是他们没有试图阻止出版、起诉我之类的,我觉得我们也卖不出几十万册。

[00:34:38] Terry Smith: I don’t think we’d have sold hundreds of thousands of copies without them trying to stop it and sue me and things like that, though.

[00:34:43] 威廉·格林:是的。在很多方面,这件事让你赢得了坦诚、正直、敢于实话实说的名声,但同样重要的是,你所做的一切都建立在对财务状况真实理解的基础上——这听起来平淡无奇,但在一个大多数人似乎懒得去深究的行业里,这恰恰成了你的竞争优势之一。

[00:34:43] William Green: Yeah. And in, in many ways, it made your reputation as somebody who was candid and had integrity and had the courage to Tell it like it is, but also it seems relevant that everything you did was based on a real understanding of the accounts of the finances, which seems to have been, I mean, it sounds so prosaic, but that’s kind of been one of your competitive advantages in an industry where most people don’t seem to bother.

[00:35:09] 特里·史密斯:但他们不读。不,我可以给你举出无数例子,只要你愿意听和记录——我们知道业内的人不读账目。我们之所以有账目,自有其原因,你懂的?各种情况都有,他们只看管理层幻灯片和各种材料,你说,怎么不读读实际的账目呢?

[00:35:09] Terry Smith: But they don’t. No, I can give you as many examples as you prepare to listen and record to of where we know that people in the industry don’t read the accounts. I mean, we have the accounts for a reason, you know? And there’s all kinds, they look at management slideshows and all kinds of, you know, how about reading the actual accounts?

[00:35:27] 特里·史密斯:我是说,这样的例子有很多。我们曾研究过 IBM,2010 年时我们考察了它,最后明智地放弃了它,结果证明这是个正确的决定。但我们在分析时发现,我得核实一下具体数字,我们发现其上一年的现金流量表里有个 20 亿美元的错误。于是我们联系了投资者关系部门,说,听着,我们是这些人,我们正在做这项研究,我们在审查那些数据,我们想就你们的客户问个问题。

[00:35:27] Terry Smith: I mean, there’s lots of examples of this. I mean, we had one on IBM, we looked at IBM in 2010 and rejected it, wisely so as it turns out, as a stock. But when we were doing it, we found that, I need to go over the number, we found a two billion dollar error in the cash flow statement for the last year. And so we sort of rang up the IR department and said, look, we’re these guys, we’re doing this, we’re looking at that, we’ve just got to ask you something about your customer.

[00:35:50] 特里·史密斯:这里有个数字,我们怎么也算不对,他们说通常会让你们回电,还说他们已经联系了最合适的人。我们完全正确。现金流少了 20 亿美元。我们说,哦,还有别人打电话吗?我说,没有,我想不是因为别人发现了这个问题,只是懒得管。他们没读过。就像,哦,好吧。然后——

[00:35:50] Terry Smith: There’s this number in here that we can’t make this work and they said that the usual will call you back and they said that we’ve been in touch with the finest one. We’re absolutely right. The cash flows out by 2 billion. We said, Oh, anybody else rang up? I said, no, I don’t think it’s because other people have discovered it but couldn’t be bothered. They haven’t read it. It’s like, Oh, okay. Then

威廉·格林:这很有意思。这么说来,我觉得,为了给我们的听众和观众做个评判,也让他们感受到这里面的门道,部分原因,显然,就像你之前说的,在于对现金流和尽职调查的重视。

[00:36:12] William Green: it’s very interesting. So it seems to me, I mean, just in terms of keeping score for our listeners and giving them and viewers and giving them a sense of some of the morals here. I mean, part of it, obviously, as you said before, is an emphasis on cash flow and due diligence.

[00:36:27] 威廉·格林:在我看来,你职业生涯中一个重要的教训就是专注于经济现实,而非报告利润。

[00:36:27] William Green: And part of it, it seems to me, one of the great lessons of your career is just focusing on economic reality over reported earnings.

[00:36:35] 特里·史密斯:是的,我认为经济现实是,如果你读过我们在 Fundsmith 做的事情,我相信你很可能一直在为此做准备。是的。我们谈论的是资本回报率高、毛利率高、现金转换出色以及增长强劲的公司,诸如此类。

[00:36:35] Terry Smith: Yes, I think economic reality is if you read what we do at Fundsmith I’m, would be confident you probably have been preparing for this. Yeah. We talk about companies with high returns on capital and high gross margins and great cash conversion and growth and so on.

[00:36:50] 特里·史密斯:但当我们找到这些公司时,我的意思是,任何人通过查看彭博或其他数据源都能找到它们。接下来你必须停下来,问自己一个极其重要的问题:他们是怎么做到的?正如你所说,经济现实是什么?他们向人们销售什么产品或服务,使得他们能获得良好的利润率,能获得良好的资本回报,能将利润转化为现金,并且能让竞争对手难以插足?

[00:36:50] Terry Smith: But when we found those, and I mean, anyone can find those going through looking on Bloomberg or another data source to find them. You then have to pause and ask yourself a very important question. How do they do that? What’s the economic reality, as you say? What product or service are they selling to people that enables them to generate good margins, that enables them to get good returns of capital, enables them to convert profits into cash, that keeps competition somewhat at bay?

[00:37:15] 特里·史密斯:他们到底做什么,你知道吗?我的意思是,如今这个时代,确实有人在不了解的情况下就投资公司,纯粹因为听说提到了什么就买。人工智能。哦,好吧。他们到底做什么?这真是令人惊讶。我的意思是,多年来我们一直秉持这个看法,人们也有点信了,但如果他们讲话云山雾罩,那不是好兆头。

[00:37:15] Terry Smith: What do they actually do, you know? And I mean, you do get investments in companies, particularly in the modern era, where people buy all kinds of stuff without understanding it, just on the basis of the mentioning. AI. Oh, right. Okay. What do they actually do? And it’s amazing. I mean, we’ve, for years, have maintained this, people have come to believe it a bit, but if they actually speak in gobbledygook, it’s not a good sign.

[00:37:38] 特里·史密斯:你知道,我们需要有人直截了当地告诉我们,就像我们在投资领域所努力做的那样,我们尽量用直白的语言告诉人们我们做什么、不做什么。

[00:37:38] Terry Smith: You know, we need people to tell us, you know, in straightforward, which we try to do in what we do in investment, we try to tell people in straightforward terms, what it is we do and what we don’t do.

[00:37:50] 威廉·格林:你职业生涯中有一大块我基本没怎么提,也许咱们回头再聊,就是你经营上市公司的那些年。

[00:37:50] William Green: There’s a big chunk of your career that I’m sort of leaving out here that maybe we’ll come back to later where you were running public companies.

[00:37:56] 威廉·格林:不过既然你提到了 Fundsmith,而且它跟咱们今天的讨论关系密切,那就深入聊聊你在这家公司做的事吧。这家公司是你 2010 年创立的,如今已经成了我所说的“优质投资艺术”的一个绝佳典范——这个词是你《增长投资》一书前言里用的,你在那儿把自己的方法描述为优质投资。

[00:37:56] William Green: But since you bring up Fundsmith and it’s so relevant to our discussion here, let’s dig in more to what it is you do here at this firm that you founded back in 2010 and that’s become a kind of a really great emblem for what I would call the art of quality investing, which is a phrase you use in the introduction to your book, Investing for Growth, where you describe your approach as quality investing.

[00:38:18] 威廉·格林:前言里有一句特别妙的话,你说看到一辆冰淇淋车,车身上印着广告语:“品质至上”。这正是你工作的核心。跟咱们说说,你在寻找这些高质量公司时,看重哪些特质?

[00:38:18] William Green: There’s a lovely phrase in that introduction where you talk about seeing an ice cream van that has an advertising slogan on the side, which is it’s quality that counts. So this is at the heart of what you do. Tell us about the attributes you’re looking for when you’re trying to identify these high quality companies.

[00:38:38] 特里·史密斯:从财务角度说,我们找的是高资本回报率的公司。先从这个说起吧。沃伦·巴菲特在 1979 年年报里说过,这是衡量业绩最重要的单一指标,姑且不论这话值多少钱。反正他后来干得相当不错,所以咱们大概该听听他的,对吧?

[00:38:38] Terry Smith: I mean, financial terms, we’re looking for a high return on capital employed. Let’s start with that. You know, Warren Buffett said it’s the single most important measure of performance in his 1979 annual report, for what it’s worth. And he seems to have done quite well since then, so probably we should listen a bit, you know?

[00:38:54] 特里·史密斯:这确实重要,因为如果你把钱交给我管,你想知道你能得到多少回报。你要是把钱存银行,你想知道利息是多少;买债券,你想知道收益率是多少。换句话说,人们投资公司的时候,反倒把这事儿给忽略了。

[00:38:54] Terry Smith: And it is, because if you invest with me, you want to know what return you’re going to get. If you’re going to put your money in the bank, you want to know what return you’re going to buy a bond, you want to know what interest rate yield you’re going to get. In other words, when people invest in companies, they And ignore that.

[00:39:06] 特里·史密斯:不,你买的是这家公司资本的一部分。你的那部分资本能带来多少回报?这才是第一要问的问题,因为查理·芒格有句名言:长期来看,如果你长期持有一只股票,它的表现会逐渐趋近于公司本身创造的回报。

[00:39:06] Terry Smith: No, you’re buying your portion of their capital. What return do they get on that capital? That’s question number one, because there’s a great Charlie Munger quote, which is over the long term, the performance of your shares, if you hold them for the long term, will start to gravitate towards the return that the company generates.

[00:39:21] 特里·史密斯:他这不是在抛出一个理论,这是事实。所以我们看资本回报率,而别人看的是各种盈利增长之类的指标。如果你愿意给我资本——不管是你追加投给我,还是我把你的盈利留存下来——而你又不看资本回报率,那我就能给你做出盈利增长来,只是回报率会越来越低。这种事,多年来不少公司都干过。

[00:39:21] Terry Smith: And he’s not putting forward a theory here. It’s a fact. And so we look at return on capital employed and people look at all kinds of other earnings growth and so on. If you’re prepared to give me access to capital, either by you sending me more or me retaining your earnings and you ignore the return on capital employed, I’ll generate earnings growth for you at lower and lower returns, which plenty of companies have done over time.

[00:39:42] 特里·史密斯:想了解细节,看看乐购就知道了,对吧?那叫一个惨不忍睹。所以我们看资本回报率,看毛利率,看销售收入和销售成本之间的差额。他们的加价率是多少?因为公司把东西收进来——零部件、原材料、服务、人力——然后往上加价,对吧?

[00:39:42] Terry Smith: See Tesco for details, right? It’s like, oh, it’s a disaster, right? So we look at return on capital employed. We look at gross margins. We look at the difference between sales revenues and cost of goods sold. What do they mark things up by? Because companies take stuff in, they take in components, ingredients, services, labor, and they put a markup on it, right?

[00:40:02] 特里·史密斯:再说,日常生活中你去商店,也能想象他们有加价。所有公司都有这个加价,是多少?加价的幅度能告诉你很多东西:告诉你他们的定价能力、品牌强度,告诉你他们抵御通胀的能力。如果成本上升了……我们当然也看利润率,但大多数人都会看这个。

[00:40:02] Terry Smith: And again, in normal life, you’re going to a shop, you can imagine them having a markup. Well, all companies have that markup. What is it? And the size of that tells you a lot of things. It tells you about their pricing power, their brand strength. It tells you about the defenses against inflation. If the cost of goods goes up, we obviously look at profit margins, but most people do.

[00:40:21] 特里·史密斯:我们看现金转化率,看利润中有多少比例变成了现金。是 100%、80%,还是 120%?有些公司利润的现金转化率超过 100%,通常是因为他们付供应商的钱比自己收到的钱慢。这显然是有好处的,因为说到底,只有现金才能用来派息,还有其他各种用途。

[00:40:21] Terry Smith: We look at cash conversion. And what percentage of the profits arrive in cash? You know, is it a hundred percent, 80%, 120%. There, there are companies that make more than a hundred percent of profits in cash, usually by the method of paying people more slowly than they get paid. And that’s beneficial fairly obviously because cash is the only thing in the end you can pay the dividend with various things.

[00:40:42] 特里·史密斯:所以我们用一整套财务指标来衡量这些公司,每年我们都会把这些数据公布出来,让大家看到我们的投资组合是什么样、跟指数比怎么样,诸如此类。然后,就像我说的,我们开始看一些别的东西,比如:他们是干什么的?如果财务数据都好看,那他们有品牌吗?

[00:40:42] Terry Smith: So we look at a raft of financial metrics for these companies and every year we give that to people in terms of our portfolio and how it looks and how it looks against the indices and so on and so forth. And then as I say we start looking at things like well what do they do? So it all looks good. Do they have brands?

[00:40:59] 特里·史密斯:他们对分销渠道有掌控力吗?有知识产权吗?有没有已经安装好的软件或设备基础,可以让他们提供维护、卖零配件、卖升级服务?他们是怎么做到这一切的?我们得理解:他们是怎么达到这些数字的?是什么驱动他们达到这些数字的?

[00:40:59] Terry Smith: Do they have control of distribution? Do they have intellectual property? Do they have an installed base of software or equipment that they service and sell spares and so on and upgrades to? How do they do this? We’ve got to have an understanding. How do they get to those numbers? What’s what drives them to get to those numbers?

[00:41:15] 特里·史密斯:是什么在驱动他们?然后我们再看管理层。我说的不是那种“好经理还是坏经理”的笼统判断。传统上,大多数人这么说的意思是跟管理层见个面,看他们给人的印象如何。我见过一些人,演讲能力一流,但管理很糟糕;也见过一些人,要他们命都做不好一次演讲,却把公司管得非常好。

[00:41:15] Terry Smith: What drives them? And then we look at things like the management. They’re not in the sense of, you know, are they good managers or bad managers? Traditionally, what most people mean by that is they have a meeting with them and how did they come across? I’ve met people who can present brilliantly but are bad managers and people who can’t present to save their lives who are very good managers.

[00:41:31] 特里·史密斯:不,我们要的是跟这些人实打实地聊,把那些常规问题都问一遍。这边怎么回事?那边怎么回事?那个产品怎么样了?在这个地区又是什么情况?我们真正想知道的是:你每年都有这么一家公司,产生这么多回报、这么多利润和现金流,对吧?

[00:41:31] Terry Smith: No, let’s get to the nitty gritty of talking to these people and ask them all the usual questions. What’s happening here? What’s happening there? What’s happening with that product? And in this region, what we really want to know is every year you have this company that produces this return, these profits and cash flows arrive, right?

[00:41:48] 特里·史密斯:你怎么决定是把它派成股息、回购股票、投入业务,还是用来收购?你基本就这么四种选择。其中两种显然是同一种的分支,就是把钱还给股东。你在这几种选择之间怎么取舍?我们找的是对这套机制有清楚把握、做法诚实、而且思路跟我们有几分相似的人,对吧?

[00:41:48] Terry Smith: How do you decide whether to give it back in a dividend? Buy back shares, invest in the business, or buy things, right? Those are your four basic choices. Two of them are obviously subsets of one, which is giving money back. How do you decide between those? And we’re looking for people who’ve got a grasp of how that works and what they do, which is honest, and that matches something like the way that we think, right?

[00:42:13] 特里·史密斯:有些人就说,其实吧……我这么多年给上市公司管理层做过项目,见过不少经理说:“我的股票被低估了。”哦,那你现在忙着收购呢——对,买了一大堆东西,没错。那你为什么不买自家股票呢?“什么?我为什么要那么干?那样公司不就变小了吗?”

[00:42:13] Terry Smith: So they go, well, actually, I mean, I’ve met managers I’ve done projects for managers in public companies over years where they say, my stock’s undervalued. Ah, now you’re busy acquiring things yes, buying lots of things, yeah, right. Why don’t you buy your own stock? What? Well, why would I do that? I’d shrink.

[00:42:29] 特里·史密斯:可你最了解的公司难道不是你要收购的那家,而是你手上已有的这家吗?你对它应该相当熟吧?而且你刚跟我说你觉得它被低估了。顺便说一句,我查了一下,我觉得你说得对。那你为什么不买自家的?“我不知道。”这就是在找那些对这件事有诚实而清晰思路的人。所以:财务数据漂亮,他们是怎么做到的?再加上人诚实、直率、头脑清楚。就这些。

[00:42:29] Terry Smith: But surely the company you know best is not the company you’re acquiring, it’s the one you’ve already got. You must know that pretty well, yeah? And you’re telling me you think it’s undervalued. By the way, I’ve checked, I think you’re right. Why don’t you buy those? I don’t know. It’s like you’re looking for people who’ve got an honest and intelligible approach to that as well. So great financials, how do they do it? People who are honest and straightforward and intelligent in their application of this. That’s it.

[00:42:55] 威廉·格林:你跟管理层面谈、想判断他们在资本配置上是否理性时,你觉得什么样的会谈风格对你最有帮助?

[00:42:55] William Green: When you’re interviewing management and you’re trying to figure out whether they’re rational in the way that they allocate capital, what do you find helps in terms of your meeting style?

[00:43:06] 威廉·格林:比如,是表现得亲切和蔼更好,还是咄咄逼人更好?当你想搞清楚这些人对资本配置的思考是否理性时,什么方式对你实际管用?

[00:43:06] William Green: Like, is it better to be charming? Is it better to be combative? What actually works for you when you’re trying to figure out whether these guys are rational in the way they think about allocation of capital.

[00:43:17] 特里·史密斯:通常我会尽量引导他们说出自己的看法,但不给他们太多提示,就这么个路数。

[00:43:17] Terry Smith: Usually it’s to try and start with going down the route of trying to get them to talk about how they view it without giving them too many clues as it were, right?

[00:43:29] 特里·史密斯:所以,你知道的,就比如问:“你怎么决定优先次序的?”但别再多说,别说什么“你可以做这个、可以做那个、可以衡量这个”——不,别给他们画路线图。就留着那个问题,当然你要把他们往这个话题上引,但尽量少给路标,看看他们是不是真有一套自己的框架。

[00:43:29] Terry Smith: So, you know, something like, you know, well, how do you decide your priorities, you know? But don’t say anything beyond, don’t say, oh, you could do this, you could do that, you could measure this. No, don’t give them a roadmap. Just leave it as, obviously, you want to point them down the route of talking about this, but you want to point them down the route of talking about it with as few signposts as possible to see whether they’ve actually got a framework, you know?

[00:43:50] 特里·史密斯:有时候他们确实没有框架。我的意思是,对抗性——可能让你意外,但我们通常没那么咄咄逼人。除非我们觉得对方到最后是在糊弄我们,或者根本不听我们想说的,尤其是当我们持有他们不少股份的时候。

[00:43:50] Terry Smith: And sometimes they haven’t got a framework. I mean, POMBATIVE It may surprise you, but we’re not usually all that combative. I mean, we are with people who we think, in the end, are trying to dupe us or just not listening to what we’re trying to tell them, particularly if we own quite a lot of their shares.

[00:44:05] 特里·史密斯:那样的话,我们就会变得好斗,就像最后跟联合利华那样。我们会变得强硬起来,因为我们已经持有这些股票很久了,你们完全无视我们,现在还继续无视,而我们觉得你们不该这样。你们对那些刚来五分钟的人反倒比对我们更好。

[00:44:05] Terry Smith: You know, we will become, like we did with Unilever in the end, it’s guys, we will become combative because we’ve owned these shares for a long time, you’ve completely ignored us, you’re ignoring us now, and we don’t think you should. And you’re treating other people Who arrived the last five minutes better than us.

[00:44:18] 特里·史密斯:所以我们真希望你们能上点心。而且我们会变得很有对抗性。比如他们说:“哦,我们来了个积极投资者,我们请他进了董事会。”这当然挺好,但我不想进董事会。他们要是真请我,我会拒绝的。倒不是说这事有多大可能,但你们为什么要那么干?

[00:44:18] Terry Smith: So we’d really like you to focus. And we will become competitive. Like, you know, they say, Oh, we’ve got an active investor and we invited him on the board. And it’s like, great, you know, but I don’t want to go on the board. I will turn it down if they ask me. Not that it’s ever particularly likely, but why are you doing that?

[00:44:32] 特里·史密斯:我想让他们明白这一点。而且你看,我们能找到一些管理层愿意给我们作证,他们说:Fundsmith 来了,做了大量关于我们业务的访谈,买了一大笔股份,后来有个激进投资者跳出来说:我们得削减成本、得拆分业务、得干这个干那个——结果他们不但投票反对,还去找代理投票机构说:“我觉得这些人搞错了,他们那么干会毁掉这家公司。”

[00:44:32] Terry Smith: I’m trying to get them to the point, and we look, we can get you managements who will give you, I don’t think you want it probably, but we can get people, managements who will give us a reference, who say, Fundsmith turned up, they did all this interviewing about our business, they bought a big stake, then we had an activist who said, we’ve got to cut costs, we’ve got to split the business, we’ve got to do this, and not only did they vote against that, but they talked to the proxy voting agency and said, I think these people are wrong, what they’re going to do is injure this business.

[00:44:58] 特里·史密斯:我的意思是,如果我们觉得有人在干坏事,我们真的会站到管理层一边,为这家公司而战。所以,远非好斗,有时候我们反而是他们最好的朋友。

[00:44:58] Terry Smith: I mean, we will actually stand alongside them and fight for the business if we think that someone’s doing something wrong in that regard. So, far from being competitive, sometimes we’re their best friend,

[00:45:07] 威廉·格林:你的投资组合里有一个非常引人注目的特点,那就是你显然持有很多非常成熟、能够自我融资的企业,这些企业净资产收益率很高,拥有持久的竞争优势,非常有巴菲特风格。

[00:45:07] William Green: One of the things that’s very striking about your portfolio is that obviously you have a lot of these very well established self-financing businesses with these high returns on equity and durable competitive advantages, very much Buffett style companies.

[00:45:20] 威廉·格林:但其中很多企业真的非常古老。我记得你曾说过,你投资组合中的公司平均成立年份是 1883 年。不知道现在是否还是这样。能聊聊这个话题吗?

[00:45:20] William Green: But a lot of them are really old. I mean, I remember you once saying that the average company in your portfolio was founded in 1883. I don’t know if that’s still true. Can you talk about it?

[00:45:30] 特里·史密斯:现在大概是 100 年左右。我想可能是 1920 几年。是的。

[00:45:30] Terry Smith: It’s about 100 years now. It’s 1920 something, I think. Yeah.

[00:45:33] 威廉·格林:这太不寻常了。你能解释一下吗?因为我们处在一个很多人痴迷于新技术的时代,对吧?人工智能啊,生物科技啊,无人机啊,等等等等。而你却把重心放在百年老店上,这是怎么回事?你并不是对技术一无所知。

[00:45:33] William Green: That’s extraordinary. Can you explain that? Because we’re in an era where so many people are just obsessed with the new technology, right? And AI this and. You know biotech and drones or whatever it is and here are you focusing very heavily on hundred year old companies what’s going on here because it’s not that you’re ignorant about technology.

[00:45:56] 特里·史密斯:不是的,大部分赢家会持续获胜。纽约有一所商学院,它每年会制作一份表格,列出好公司和坏公司。他们按行业划分公司,里面有成千上万家公司。所以有必需消费品、可选消费品、制药和医疗、采矿和矿产、银行等等这些行业,每个行业里都有几百家公司。

[00:45:56] Terry Smith: No mostly winners keep on winning come away the world is the business school in New York. It produces a table, I think they produce it annually, and it’s good or bad companies. And what they have is companies by sector, and then there’s thousands of companies. So they have the sectors so there’s consumer stables and consumer discretionary and pharmaceuticals and healthcare and mining and minerals, banking, all these sectors, hundreds and hundreds of companies in each one.

[00:46:19] 特里·史密斯:他们做一个非常简单的计算,看一家公司在他们考察的年份里是在创造价值还是在毁灭价值。而且他们有多年的数据。他们看的是资本回报率,就是巴菲特在 79 年关注的那个指标,也是我们关注的,减去对加权平均资本成本的一个估算。

[00:46:19] Terry Smith: And they do a very simple calculation of whether a company creates or destroys value for the year that they’re looking at. But they’ve got the data over many years. And what they look at is the return on capital employed, you know, the Buffett thing that he focused on in 79 that we focus on, less a guess at the weighted average cost of capital.

[00:46:35] 特里·史密斯:人们会对这个估算是否准确而大惊小怪,对吧?确切的数字并不重要。所以他们用资本回报率减去加权平均资本成本,如果得到正利差,那就是在创造价值;如果是负利差,那就是一台毁灭价值的机器。

[00:46:35] Terry Smith: People get their knickers in a terrible twist about whether it’s a guess, right? The exact number doesn’t matter. And so they take off a weight average cost of capital income. Is it taking in money, a weight average cost of capital and making a positive spread, in which case it’s creating value? Or is it making a negative spread, in which case it’s a machine for destroying value.

[00:46:52] 特里·史密斯:然后他们展示各个行业的情况。我跟你说,几乎每年他们做这个表的时候,你一看就会说,哦,原来如此。那些好公司,创造价值的公司,是必需消费品、可选消费品、医疗、信息技术。那坏的是什么呢?哦,是银行、房地产、保险、重型工程和制造业、采矿和矿产、石油、天然气和运输,尤其是航空公司,全都是坏的。

[00:46:52] Terry Smith: And then they show you the sections. Let me tell you, almost every year they do it, you go, Oh right, so the good companies, the ones creating value are Oh, they’re consumer staples, consumer discretionary, healthcare, information technology and then what’s all the bad stuff? Oh, it’s banks, real estate, insurance, heavy engineering and manufacturing, mining and minerals, oil, gas, and transport, in particular airlines, are all bad.

[00:47:18] 特里·史密斯:当然,每个人都有走运的时候,对吧?在一个周期的某个年份,矿业可能会表现不错,或者航空公司还凑合。当然会有这种情况,你知道的。但好东西不会变成坏东西,坏东西也不会变成好东西。所以第一点是,总体而言,我们不会突然发现所有好公司都变成了坏公司,所有坏公司都变成了好公司。

[00:47:18] Terry Smith: Now, every dog has its day, right? There will be a year, somewhere in the cycle, where mining is good or airlines are okay, you know. Of course there is, you know, but good things don’t become bad and bad things don’t become good. So that’s the first point is on the whole, we’re not suddenly going to find all the good companies have become bad companies, all the bad companies.

[00:47:39] 特里·史密斯:这种格局会持续下去。之所以持续,是因为这些行业存在竞争优势。这些行业及其中的龙头企业享有某些特定的竞争优势。这就是巴菲特所说的护城河,它们的防御机制。它们怎么用那些尖锐的肘部把你挡在外面,对吧?

[00:47:39] Terry Smith: It persists. And the reason it persists is because of competitive advantages in those sectors. There are certain competitive advantages that those sectors and the leading companies within it enjoy. It’s what Buffett calls the moat, their defensive mechanism. How do they keep those sharp elbows that keep you out, right?

[00:47:55] 特里·史密斯:因为我们都能看到可口可乐有很好的回报。但我们怎么进去呢?我们得先过了百事可乐和激浪这一关,才能有机会碰到它们。它们有自我防御的手段。而且,毫无疑问,我们确实处在一个变革的时代。

[00:47:55] Terry Smith: Because we can all look at Coca Cola and see it’s got good returns. But how are we going to get in there? And we’ve got to get past PepsiCo and Dr. Pepper first before we even get a crack at them. And they’ve got this means of defending themselves. And look, there’s no doubt that we are in the era where there’s been change.

[00:48:10] 特里·史密斯:是的,我们可以环顾四周,然后说,嗯,在我从事这一行的这些年里,我们见证了计算、互联网、移动电话、社交网络方面的变革。也许我们现在正在人工智能方面看到一些东西,也许没有。我不知道。这确实是一个变革的时期。

[00:48:10] Terry Smith: Yeah, and we can sort of look around us and go, well, in the time that I’ve been in business, we’ve seen change in terms of computing and the Internet and mobile telephony and you know, and social networks. And maybe we’re seeing something now in AI maybe not. I don’t know. And it is a period of change.

[00:48:31] 特里·史密斯:毫无疑问,你必须对变革保持警觉。我觉得我们做到了。我们持有的东西并不全是 1920 年成立的。现在我们持有 Meta,持有微软,还有一些更近代的公司。但在我们依赖“从来没有比现在变化更快”这个想法之前,请记住,我拿的是历史学学位。

[00:48:31] Terry Smith: And there’s no doubt that you’ve got to be alive to it. And I think we are after it. Not everything that we’ve got was founded in 1920. Now we’ve got Meta, and we’ve got Microsoft, and we’ve got some stuff that’s more recent. But before we rely upon the idea that there’s never been more change in this, bear in mind I did a history degree.

[00:48:47] 特里·史密斯:你需要回顾历史上更早的时期。你确定这是我们有史以来经历的最大变革吗?因为如果你在过去大约两个世纪里从事通信行业,你会从电报业务开始,那时候人们沿着铁路线架设电线,然后发送摩尔斯电码。

[00:48:47] Terry Smith: And you need to think back to earlier periods in history. You’re sure that this is the most change we’ve ever seen because if you were involved in the communications business across the last sort of two centuries, you would have started in the telegraph business where they put up wires, typically alongside railway lines, and you sent Morse code.

[00:49:03] 特里·史密斯:那就是你沟通的方式,对吧?点划。然后有人发明了一种带麦克风的方法,这样你就能传递声音了。于是我们把麦克风接到电线上,现在我们可以互相说话了。然后有人发明了无线电。无线电用了段时间后,又演化出两个东西:一个是我们可以在不连接电线的情况下互相交谈。啊,那就不一样了,对吧?

[00:49:03] Terry Smith: That’s how you communicated, right? Dot dash. And then somebody came up with a means of having a microphone so you could have the voice. So we attached a microphone to the wires. Now we could talk to each other and then somebody invented radio and after we’d had radio in place for a while Two things evolved from that one was, we could talk to each other without being connected by a wire Ah, that’s different, isn’t it?

[00:49:26] 特里·史密斯:所以,海上的船只和旅行中的人可以相互通信。而且知道你还可以向大众广播,那又有点不同了,对吧?然后来了个人说,别管那些了,我有个东西,你可以在交流的时候看到对方,你可以有电视了。是的,你可以有视频,也可以有广播电视。

[00:49:26] Terry Smith: So, you know ships at sea and people who are traveling and could communicate and knowing that you can communicate To the many you could broadcast that’s a bit different, isn’t it? Then along came somebody who said never mind that, I’ve got this thing, you can look at each other while you’re communicating, you can have television, yeah, you can have either video or you can have broadcast television.

[00:49:45] 特里·史密斯:然后互联网来了。所以如果你身处这个行业,这一路上已经经历了太多的变化,不是吗?所以,近因偏差是我认为很多人都会犯的毛病。人们很容易认为我们现在经历的变化比以往任何时候都多。我其实并不这么认为。

[00:49:45] Terry Smith: Then along came the internet, so if you’re involved in this, there’s been a hell of a lot of change already, hasn’t there, along the way. So, you know, recency bias is something I think that a lot of people suffer from. It’s tempting to think that we’ve got more change now than we’ve ever had before. I’m not actually convinced.

[00:50:01] 威廉·格林:这里有很多值得展开的内容,我想在继续之前为我们的听众强调几点,好吗?第一件非常独特的事情是,你的做法和查理·芒格非常一致,对吧?我在书里写了一章关于芒格的内容,讲的是不要做个傻瓜,避免常见的愚蠢行为。你做的很多事情就是避开某些东西,对吧?比如避开某些行业,对吧?

[00:50:01] William Green: There’s so much to unpack here, and I wanted to highlight a few things for our listeners before we move on, right? So one thing that’s very distinctive. About what you do, which is very much in tune with Charlie Munger, right? I wrote a chapter in my book about Munger and just not being a fool, avoiding standard stupidities. A lot of what you do is just avoiding certain things, right? So certain sectors you’re avoiding, right?

[00:50:25] 特里·史密斯:别做蠢事。我觉得芒格很了不起,因为他确实有这个想法:如果你投资好东西,你就会没事。粗略地说,你可以把我们整个投资哲学浓缩成这句话。

[00:50:25] Terry Smith: Don’t do stupid. Munger is great I think because he does have this idea that if you invest in good stuff, you’ll be alright. Roughly speaking you could take our entire investment philosophy and boil it down like that.

[00:50:36] 特里·史密斯:如果你拥有好东西,你就会没事。就是这样。就是这样。你可能不是最好的基金,可能不会跑赢全世界所有人,但你会没事的。好东西。抱歉,你刚才在说芒格的时候我打断你了。

[00:50:36] Terry Smith: If you’ve got good stuff, you’ll be alright. That’s it. That’s it. You might not be the best fund or you might not outperform everybody in the world but you’ll be alright. Good stuff. Sorry I interrupted you in the middle of talking about Munger.

[00:50:49] 威廉·格林:不,这是一个非常重要的见解。我是说,这种把事情变得非常简单的能力,对吧?就是买好东西。我记得你曾说过,你不需要拥有绝对最好的股票,你需要拥有很多相当不错的、真正优秀、有韧性和持久性的公司,然后避开那些垃圾。那么请告诉我们,你怎么判断一家公司是坏公司?比如当你查看财务报表、寻找警示信号的时候,因为你做的很多事情就是一是剔除糟糕的行业,二是剔除糟糕的公司。

[00:50:49] William Green: No that’s such a, it’s such an important insight. I mean it, and the ability to sort of make it very simple, right? Just buy good stuff. I mean, I remember you saying at one point, you don’t need to own the absolute best stocks, you need to own a lot of pretty good, you know, really good companies that are resilient and durable, and then avoid the crap. And so tell us How you figure out what bad companies look like, like, like when you’re looking at the financial statements and you’re looking for warning signs, because a lot of what you’re doing is a getting rid of lousy sectors and be getting rid of lousy companies.

[00:51:25] 特里·史密斯:我的意思是,很大程度上归结为一种直觉。就像你一样,没有好的航空公司。人们会说,那瑞安航空呢?每条规则都会有例外。但总体而言,没有。如果你看过去 20 年的数据,它每年平均相对于资本成本大约损失 5%。

[00:51:25] Terry Smith: I mean, an awful lot of it comes down to just knowing it’s like you, there aren’t good airlines. I mean, people say, what about rhinos? Every rule has an exception somewhere out there. But on the whole, there aren’t any. And if you look at the last 20 years of data, it’s lost something like 5 percent versus its cost of capital on average every year.

[00:51:47] 特里·史密斯:那是一台毁灭价值的机器。统计数据就是这么告诉你的。所以分析报表会告诉你这些,无论是看整体还是看个体。然后你会想,为什么这是个糟糕的行业呢?让我们想一想。这些公司涉及的每一个主要因素都不在它们的控制范围之内。

[00:51:47] Terry Smith: It’s a machine for destroying value. That’s just what the statistics tell you. So that’s what analyzing the statements will tell you, either in aggregate or individually. Then you go, I wonder why they are a bad industry. Let’s have a think for a moment. Every single major factor involved in those companies is outside their control.

[00:52:04] 特里·史密斯:这是另一个需要留意的点。你要找的是那些拥有某些自己能控制的东西的公司,它们在能控制的事情上努力。它们不为无法控制的事情担忧,它们专注于自己能控制的事情。航空公司无法控制你飞行的频率。它们的载客率是波动的,对吧?

[00:52:04] Terry Smith: This is another thing to look for. You’re looking for companies which Have certain things they can control and work on the things they control. They don’t worry about the things they can’t control, they work on the things they can control. Airlines can’t control the frequency with which you fly. Their load factors vary, right?

[00:52:19] 特里·史密斯:它们无法控制天气状况。时不时会有一些事情让它们停飞,比如火山灰云之类的。它们无法控制自己的主要投入成本,也就是燃油。还有劳动力价格,基本上都工会化了,等等。还有飞机成本。基本上,它们是从两家供应商那里买飞机。

[00:52:19] Terry Smith: They can’t control atmospheric conditions. Things happen to stop them flying from time to time. Volcanic dust clouds and things like that. They can’t control their main input costs, which are fuel. Lower price, staff, largely unionised, and so on, and the cost of airplanes. Basically, they are buying airplanes from two suppliers.

[00:52:41] 特里·史密斯:然后你会想到这个问题。希望这是个反问句。从投资角度看,一个行业是参与者少更好还是参与者多更好?答案是参与者少,对吧?我的意思是,理想情况下,独家垄断最好,但如果非要有竞争的话,双头垄断也不错,比如 Visa 和万事达,可口可乐和百事可乐,等等。

[00:52:41] Terry Smith: And then you get on to this. You know, hopefully this is a rhetorical question. Is an industry a good industry or a better industry if there are fewer, from an investment standpoint? If there are few participants or many participants, well, the answer surely is few participants, right? I mean, ideally one would be great, but you know, if we’ve got to have it, a duopoly is okay, you know, Visa and MasterCard, Coke and Pepsi and so on.

[00:53:04] 特里·史密斯:我上次查的时候——肯定已经过时了,在有人提起来或在你的播客下留言说你是个白痴之前——上次我查,而且我很久没费心去查了,全世界大概有 3000 家航空公司,对吧?那你记住这一点,这 3000 家里,为什么那么多数量的所有者和经营者甚至压根没打算赚钱?

[00:53:04] Terry Smith: Last time I checked, and I’m sure I’m out of date before anybody sort of brings up or writes under your podcast that you’re an idiot, but the last time I checked, and I haven’t bothered checking for a long time, there were 3,000 airlines in the world, right? Then bear in mind this, out of those 3,000 airlines, why the large number of the owners and operators aren’t even trying to make money?

[00:53:21] 特里·史密斯:它们是各国的旗舰航空公司,对吧?这些公司由政府用纳税人的钱拥有和运营。它们不在乎,确实不在乎。或者它们由那些喜欢自己名字印在机身上的企业家拥有。当你审视这些行业时,你会说,好吧,我手头有财务数据,但这恰恰与我们的做法相反。

[00:53:21] Terry Smith: They’re national flag carriers. Right? They’re owned and operated by governments using your money. They don’t care. They really don’t care. Or they’re owned by entrepreneurs, who really like their names on the side of planes. It’s when you look at sectors, you say, well, I’ve got the financial statistics and it’s the opposite of what we do.

[00:53:38] 特里·史密斯:好,数据挺漂亮。他们怎么做到的呢?他们怎么做到的?这个嘛,实在糟糕得很。为什么?我们可以看看所有原因。看看那些糟糕的行业,找出缘由。所以,你懂的,看矿业和矿产、石油和天然气、交通运输(包括航空和银行)、投资银行、保险和房地产这些领域。

[00:53:38] Terry Smith: Okay, so the statistics are good. How do they make that? How do they make that? This is They’re really terrible. Why? Well, we can look at all the reasons why. We can look at those terrible sectors and look why. So, you know, if you look at Mining and minerals or oil and gas or transport, including airlines and banking and investment banking and insurance and real estate.

[00:53:57] 特里·史密斯:这很糟糕。它们就是糟糕的行业。你说你没开始。你几乎需要从别人告诉你的那些具体公司开始讨论。你几乎需要开始思考这个问题。别回头想斯特恩商学院那套,什么好与更好。棘手的是,当你进入一个普遍由相当不错的公司构成的行业时。

[00:53:57] Terry Smith: It’s dire. They’re just dire sectors. You said you didn’t begin. You almost need to begin this discussion about the individual companies somebody’s telling you about. You almost need to begin to think about it. Don’t think back to the Stern Business School and it’s good versus the best. Tricky is when you get into a sector which is commonly populated by quite good companies.

[00:54:16] 特里·史密斯:但里面也会混进一些不太好的企业,这种事时不时就会发生,就像偶尔也会碰到整体不景气的行业,但其中却藏着个不错的。我举几个例子吧,就拿日常消费品来说,这算是个普遍表现不错的行业。

[00:54:16] Terry Smith: But you get businesses in there which are not good and that does happen from time to time, just like you occasionally get sectors where they’re bad sectors, but there’s a good one. Let me give you a couple of examples, you know, out of there, you know, if we looked at in consumer staples, just sector that is generally good.

[00:54:30] 特里·史密斯:我们考察过金佰利公司,就是生产卫生纸、厨房纸巾、面巾纸之类的企业。这不算一门好生意。恐怕你也知道,做纸巾这行,品牌忠诚度不高。说实话,我不清楚有多少人去超市时,非得买舒洁或者可丽舒不可。

[00:54:30] Terry Smith: And we looked at Kimberly Clark, the company that makes toilet tissue and kitchen towel and tissues and so on. It’s not a great business. I’m afraid you know, the business of making paper towels isn’t something where there’s a great deal of brand loyalty, you know, I don’t know how many people go down the supermarket and feel they’ve got to buy Scottex, or they’ve got to buy Kleenex.

[00:54:50] 特里·史密斯:他们只是想要一张纸巾。真的没那么在意,不像吃到肚子里的东西那样上心。要是食品、饮料、药品什么的,价格范围就不一样了。你知道,这对消费者有利,但也没好到哪儿去,不是吗?而且你不能被行业分类框住。

[00:54:50] Terry Smith: They just want a paper towel. They’re really not concerned about it as much as they would be if they put this into their body. If it were to have food and drink and medicine and so on, it’s not got the same kind of price range. And you know, it’s in the consumer’s favor, but it’s not great, is it? And then you mustn’t get hooked up on sector descriptions.

特里斯·史密斯:有时候人们会说,你不投资化工公司,对吧?不,那太糟糕了。但你持有过一家叫西格玛奥德里奇的公司,它被收购了。我们确实持有过。而且它严格来说不算化工公司。它实际上是家什么公司呢?没错,它确实生产化学品,但生产的是小罐装的化学品。

[00:55:06] Terry Smith: Sometimes people will say, well, you don’t, do you invest in chemical companies? No, terrible. But you owned a company called Sigma Aldrich. It was taken over. We did own it. And it wasn’t really a chemical company. What it was a company. Yeah, it literally made chemicals, but it made little pots of chemicals.

[00:55:21] 特里·史密斯:这家公司把产品供应给做实验和检测的生物化学家。他们受训成为生物化学家,使用它的产品目录——在线目录。所以当他们明天或后天要做实验或检测时,就上目录下单所需原料,然后一个个小罐子就送上门来,里面装着所有需要的东西。

[00:55:21] Terry Smith: Which it supplied to biochemists doing experiments and tests. And so they were trained as biochemists to use its catalogue, its online catalogue. So when they’ve got an experiment or test to do tomorrow or the day after, they go on the catalogue and order their ingredients and the little pots turn up with all the stuff.

[00:55:36] 特里·史密斯:这就是他们供应的东西。而他们真正做的其实是履约业务。他们提供的是帮你完成工作的物料。他们供应这些物料。你并不真的去算那一整箱化学品的大宗成本是多少。你只想知道,早上你走进实验室时,它已经在那儿等着你了。

[00:55:36] Terry Smith: That’s what they supply. And what they’re really in is in the fulfilment business. They’re supplying stuff to help you do it. They’re supplying the stuff. You don’t really work out what the bulk cost of the container of chemicals is. You just want to know that it’s going to be there waiting in a laboratory the morning when you come in.

[00:55:51] 特里·史密斯:然后,当然,最后的壁垒在于,他们供应一定量的产品,这些产品具有腐蚀性、毒性或放射性,换句话说,处理起来很棘手,这也在安全供应此类原料的能力方面给他们带来了优势。所以,虽然他们看起来是化学行业,但实际上并非如此。

[00:55:51] Terry Smith: And then, of course, the final frontier is they have a certain amount they supply, which is. corrosive or poisonous or radioactive in other words, difficult, and that gives them an edge as well in terms of the ability to safely supply ingredients like that. And so it literally had chemical on the tin, but it wasn’t really.

[00:56:09] 特里·史密斯:其实那家公司专门培训科学家,让他们在实验里使用它的原料,业绩平平。供应方面,它不是那种供应数千吨磷酸盐之类的散装化学品公司。我上次看的时候,他们平均每罐售价 400 美元。所以,虽然名义上说是化学公司,实际上并非如此。

[00:56:09] Terry Smith: It was actually a company which had trained scientists to use its ingredients in experiments, and it’s average. Supply, it wasn’t, you know, it’s not like a bulk chemical company supplying thousands of tons of phosphate or something. Their average pot costs 400 bucks, last time I looked. And that, so it says it’s chemical, but it’s not really.

[00:56:28] 特里·史密斯:所以你得当心这些。有些跨界的情况,处在一个不错的行业里,但公司本身不行;或者处在一个糟糕的行业里,却是那个行业里难得的好公司。这种都得小心。

[00:56:28] Terry Smith: So you’ve got to be careful about those. The ones that cross over, that are in a sector that’s good, but are bad, or in a sector that’s bad, but is the odd good one. You have to be careful.

威廉·格林:那么,我看你旗舰基金的前十大持仓,看到像 Meta、微软、诺和诺德、史赛克,这些我觉得你从 14 年前基金成立就持有了,还有欧莱雅、自动数据处理公司、维萨、菲利普·莫里斯、沃特斯,以及 Alphabet,你能不能挑其中几个,讲讲你在寻找什么样的企业特质,那种体现你偏爱的类型?

[00:56:36] William Green: So when I look at your list of top 10 holdings in your flagship fund and I see things like Meta and Microsoft and Nova Nordisk and Striker and which I think you’ve owned since the inception of the fund 14 years ago or L’Oreal or automatic data processing Visa Philip Morris Waters and Alphabet can you take a couple of those that kind of illustrate what you’re looking for in, in a business that sort of embody what you love?

[00:57:02] 特里·史密斯:是的,我知道。咱们来说几句。微软,你知道,它是全球领先的计算机操作系统供应商。你的电脑可能就在用它运行。我的电脑肯定也是。绝大多数企业计算都是靠它的操作系统完成的。回到我们买入它的时候,那是它的主营业务,Windows。

[00:57:02] Terry Smith: Yeah, I know. Let’s take a couple of words. And Microsoft, you know, it’s the world’s leading supplier of computer operating systems. Your computer probably works on it. My computer definitely works on it. The vast majority of business computing is done using its operating systems. If you go back to when we bought it, that was its leading business, Windows.

[00:57:19] 特里·史密斯:当时它拥有服务器和工具,属于专业业务。我们买入后不久,期待中的管理层变动发生了,新管理层带领它进入了相关联的新领域。所以,你知道,现在它已与亚马逊网络服务并驾齐驱,成为云计算服务领域的领导者之一。

[00:57:19] Terry Smith: And it had the servers and tools, professional business. It had a change of management, which we were hoping for shortly after we bought it and its new management took it into other things which were linked into it. So, you know, it’s now advised with Amazon Web Services to being one of the leader in the provision of cloud computing services.

[00:57:36] 特里·史密斯:所以,你知道,采用分布式计算而不是把计算放在我们的桌面上,利用云来备份我们的信息、处理信息,并在一个通用平台上进行操作。自从那以来,他们基本上一直是该领域的两个领导者之一。他们在游戏领域也处于领先地位。

[00:57:36] Terry Smith: So, you know, using distributed computing rather than having the computing sitting here on our desktop, using the cloud to back up our information and process it and do it on a common platform. Is something which is they’ve basically been one of the two leaders in since that thing. They’re also leading in gaming.

[00:57:52] 特里·史密斯:虽然他们在移动电话业务上栽了跟头,把机会拱手让给了苹果,不过那是在我们买入之前的事。后来他们在商用计算领域凭借微软 Surface 在移动设备上打了个翻身仗。诸如此类,接下来他们在人工智能上会怎么走,我们拭目以待,但这些都根植于一家公司,它一直保持着稳定的产出。

[00:57:52] Terry Smith: Although they screwed up the mobile telephony thing and handed that to Apple, basically that was before we bought it. And they have actually made a comeback in business computing in terms of mobile devices with the Microsoft Surface. And so on and so forth, and you know, we’ll see where they go in AI, but all of this is built into a company, which has regularly produced.

[00:58:12] 特里·史密斯:高收入增长和高资本回报。我边说边告诉你们具体数字,稍等一下。我这就登录系统查给你们看。

[00:58:12] Terry Smith: High growth in revenues and high returns on capital. I’ll tell you what they are while we’re talking, give me a second. I’ll just log on to my system and tell you.

[00:58:18] 威廉·格林:但还有一点很关键,特里,你是在它不受青睐的时候买入的。所以,我意思是,你经常提到优质公司估值这个问题。

[00:58:18] William Green: But also what’s relevant, Terry, is you bought it during a period where it was out of favor. So, so, I mean, you often talk about this issue of valuation with quality companies.

威廉·格林:很有意思,你在《投资成长》一书引言里有张图表,讲到 1973 年时,你本可以花 281 倍市盈率买欧莱雅,126 倍买高露洁,63 倍买可口可乐,这些价格都不算亏。可见你愿意为优质公司出高价,但像微软这样的股票,你买的时候它其实严重低估。

[00:58:28] William Green: There’s a very interesting thing, a chart that you have in the introduction to your book, Investing for Growth. Where you talk about how you would actually have been justified paying a 281 PE for L’Oreal back in 1973 or 126 for Colgate or 63 for Coca Cola. So you’re willing to pay a reasonably high price for high quality, but then there are things like Microsoft where actually you bought it when it was really undervalued.

威廉·格林:您能否再谈谈,面对高质量成长型公司时,您如何考量估值问题?这个问题相当棘手,尤其是当下,七圣徒中有不少公司正处在这种情境中。

[00:58:56] William Green: Can you also talk about how you think about this issue of valuation when it comes to high quality growth companies, because it’s very thorny, particularly at the moment with a lot of the Magnificent Seven.

[00:59:08] 特里·史密斯:是啊,我是说,对一家确实优秀的公司来说。作为人类,我们非常不擅长估算复利回报的影响,这是我们很不擅长的一件事。

[00:59:08] Terry Smith: Yeah, I mean, for a really good company. We are very bad at what we’re very, one of the things we’re very bad at is estimating the impact of compound returns as human beings.

[00:59:20] 特里·史密斯:你看,当比较 10% 和 12.5% 的复利回报率时,20 年或 30 年下来的差距可不是 25%。人们没意识到,这个差距实际上会让资本价值翻两番。哇,要做到这一点可不容易,除非你亲自坐下来算一算。

[00:59:20] Terry Smith: You know, when you look at the difference between a 10 percent and 12. 5 percent compound return, the difference over 20 or 30 years isn’t 25%. People don’t realize that actually quadruples the capital value in that differential. Wow. And we’re very bad at that, you know, unless you sit down and compute it yourself.

[00:59:36] 特里·史密斯:所以人们往往看不透这一点,我觉得,这导致那些能够持续创造高回报和增长的公司,通常得不到充分的估值。欧莱雅就是这种情况的一个绝佳例证,算起来令人惊叹。但你看那张表,欧莱雅,你原本可以花 100 倍市盈率买百事可乐。

[00:59:36] Terry Smith: And so people don’t figure that out, I think, very well, which means that commonly things which are able to make persistent high returns and growth do not get full valuation. L’Oreal is a great place in point with that particular calculation. It’s astonishing. But if you look at that table, L’Oreal, you could have paid 100 for Pepsi, 100 times P for Pepsi in there.

[00:59:55] 特里·史密斯:但你看,一旦我们承认这一点,我们确实承认市场虽然并非完全有效,但也并非完全无效。总体而言,平均来看,市场对好公司的定价优于坏公司。因此,我们为优质公司支付的价格必然会高于平均水平。

[00:59:55] Terry Smith: But look, once, as much as we acknowledge that, and we do acknowledge that markets whilst they’re not completely perfect. Are completely imperfect either. They generally, on average, they price good companies better than bad companies. So we’re going to have to pay a higher price for our good companies than the average.

[01:00:11] 特里·史密斯:总有人跑过来说,哎呀,这股价有点贵。是啊,贵是应该的,因为这是家更好的公司。但偶尔,某种疯狂会笼罩他们,然后他们就会给你一个本不该给的价格,对吧?这事儿是怎么发生的呢?我们当初开始买微软的时候,股价才 25 美元一股。

[01:00:11] Terry Smith: People keep coming up, oh it’s a bit expensive. Yeah, well it’s going to be because it’s a better company. But once in a while, some form of madness overtakes them. And they offer you something which they really shouldn’t, right? It’s kind of like, how does it happen? So, we started buying Microsoft when it was 25 bucks a share.

[01:00:26] 特里·史密斯:今天股价差不多 420 多吧?而且它连续 8 年排在我们业绩榜前列。这么大一家公司,按理说不该这样。我们当初买入时,市盈率大概 8 倍。因为,你知道,史蒂夫·鲍尔默——我不认识鲍尔默先生,我也不想对他评头论足——但他在任那段时间确实不太顺,整个移动电话浪潮全错过了,后来收购了诺基亚,结果相当惨淡,又收购了 Skype,也同样糟糕,说来讽刺,如今 Teams 倒是大获成功。

[01:00:26] Terry Smith: It’s 420 something today, right? And it’s been in our top performance 8 years running. This shouldn’t happen with a company this size. It was trading on a P of about 8 when we bought it. Because, you know, Steve Ballmer, I don’t know Mr. Ballmer, I don’t really want to you know, be critical of him, but he hadn’t been a happy period when he was there, and they’d missed out on the whole mobile telephony thing, then they bought Nokia, and that’d been pretty disastrous and they bought Skype, which had been pretty disastrous too, which is ironic given that Teams is now such a success.

[01:00:53] 特里·史密斯:所以,当时我们就在那儿,当我们审视这类标的时,我们会看:这是一家资本回报率在 30% 左右的公司,对吧,而且现在营收增长,你知道,长期维持在 20% 上下。这种情况本不该出现。我们认为我们找到了一家这样的公司,而且我们及时发现了。

[01:00:53] Terry Smith: And so, there we were, and we, when we have things, looking at things like, so we look at something like this is a company with returns on capital around 30%, right, and revenue growth now, you know, it’s been coasting about 20 percent for a long period of time. This shouldn’t happen. We think we’ve found one of these and we have found them in time.

[01:01:08] 特里·史密斯:我们在 IDEX 库存设备公司发现了它。我们在微软发现了它。当年在达美乐披萨也发现了它。我们会坐下来想:我们是不是漏掉了什么?我们通常的做法,差不多是当作一种 sanity check(理智检验),就是去看看反对者怎么说。反对者在说什么?

[01:01:08] Terry Smith: We found it in IDEX Inventory Equipment. We found it in Microsoft. We found it in Domino’s Pizza back in the day. We sit down and think, are we missing something here? And what we tend to do as a sort of check on sanity as much as anything else is go and look at what the detractors are saying. What are the detractors saying?

[01:01:25] 特里·史密斯:他们说出的理由是什么?我记得当年关于微软的大量负面评论,大致就是说:嗯,它又不是苹果,对吧?是啊,确实不是,对吧?这我们自个儿早看出来了。非常有名的一次,在我看来是《金融时报》的 Lex 专栏——我当时确实知道是哪位记者写的,但显然他们没有署名,不幸的是——那篇文章说,当股价在 26 美元的时候,任何人都不该在这个价位持有它。

[01:01:25] Terry Smith: What are they saying is the reason? And I remember an awful lot of the Microsoft stuff, roughly speaking, just said, well, it’s not Apple, is it? Well, no, it’s not, is it? We figured that out all on our own. Very famously, the in my view, the Financial Times Lex column, and I do know which journalist wrote it at the time, but obviously they haven’t got a byline on it, unfortunately, said when it was 26 a share, nobody should own it at this price.

[01:01:49] 特里·史密斯:他们说得没错,但不是他们以为的那种对。就像,有时候人们会特别激烈地说你不该持有这个。这时你确实会遇到这样的机会:一家大型优质企业,以你本不该拿到的价格送上门来。Meta 是另一个例子,在剑桥分析事件之后。

[01:01:49] Terry Smith: And they were right, but not in the way that they meant it. And it’s like, sometimes when people are just absolutely Mad about things about you shouldn’t own this. You do get this opportunity where a large, very good business gets offered to you at a price where you just shouldn’t get it. Meta was another one after the Cambridge Analytica thing.

[01:02:08] 特里·史密斯:你知道,Meta 那真是白捡的,我的意思是,自从我们买入那个时点以来,股价涨了大概 500% 吧。而且你知道,我们听到了一大堆恶毒的指责,说我们不该持有它。我在去年的致股东信和今年的致股东信里都提到过,我说我一直在琢磨成立一只基金,专买别人叫我别碰的股票。

[01:02:08] Terry Smith: You know, Meta really was a gimme in terms of, I mean, it’s gone up 500 percent or something like that since that point where we owned it. And you know, we received a cacophony of invective from people about how we shouldn’t own it. I mean, I mentioned in the, I quote my previous annual letter and this year’s annual letter saying, I’m always thinking about having a fund that just buys the one share everybody tells me not to own.

[01:02:30] 特里·史密斯:因为他们是靠情绪和逸闻做判断的,对吧?你知道,人们会说:没人用 Facebook 了。我记得有人跟我说,没人用 Facebook 了。我说:哦,是吗,行。你住哪儿?他说:坦布里奇韦尔斯。我说:那雅加达呢?雅加达的孩子们用不用?

[01:02:30] Terry Smith: Because they’re working off emotion and anecdote, right? You know, people were saying, nobody’s using Facebook anymore. I mean, I remember saying, nobody’s using Facebook anymore. I said, oh, right, okay. Where do you live? Well, Tunbridge Wells. I said, oh how about in Jakarta? Are kids using it in Jakarta at all?

[01:02:47] 特里·史密斯:我觉得这个可比坦布里奇韦尔斯重要多了,你不觉得吗?所以你的孩子不用了。那他们用什么?我说:Instagram。你总知道那也是他们家的吧!哈哈。人们啊,逸闻的复数不是数据,还是面对事实吧。有一部 50 年代的老电视剧叫《法网》,里面那个侦探,名字我记不清了,他总是在审讯嫌疑人或目击者,刚发生了一起谋杀或抢劫之类的案子。他们在那儿喋喋不休,然后他会说:事实,老兄,只要事实。

[01:02:47] Terry Smith: Well, I think that’s kind of more important don’t you than Tunbridge Wells? So your kids are not using it anymore. What are they using? Instagram, I said. You do know they own that too! Haha. People, the plural of anecdote isn’t data, just deal with the facts. There’s a, there’s an old TV series from the 50s called Dragnet and the detective whose name, I can’t remember, would always Be interviewing a suspect, a witness to something that had just occurred, a murder or robbery or something like that. And they’d be gaveling and they’d say, the facts, man, just the facts.

[01:03:23] 威廉·格林:有一件特别好的事,我记得是在《增长投资》里,你的那本书,收录了你基金头 10 年的致股东信,你在书中引用了西蒙和加芬克尔的歌《拳击手》。你在那儿说——

[01:03:23] William Green: There was a very nice thing and I think it was in investing for growth, your book, which collected your letters from the first 10 years of the fund where you quoted the Simon and Garfunkel song, The Boxer. Where you said,

[01:03:39] 特里·史密斯:嗯,是啊,我的意思是,你看,你能从电影和歌词里获得很多东西——我是认真的。因为人们有时候会在电影、电影歌词和歌词上花不少功夫。所以有时候它们比某个人、西蒙和加芬克尔随便弹个好听的小调更有深意。

[01:03:39] Terry Smith: I mean, yeah, I mean, look, you can get an awful. I’m quite serious. Now you can get an awful lot of stuff from the from the movies and from song lyrics because people spend quite a lot of time sometimes on, on movies and on film lyrics and on lyrics. And so sometimes they’ve got. A bit more meaning than just somebody, Simon and Garfunkel, playing a nice tune.

[01:03:59] 特里·史密斯:就说我们经常引用的一部电影,《总统班底》,讲水门事件的,里面现在有太多经典台词了,我都不知道从哪儿说起。你知道,有个片段,深喉——他是联邦调查局副局长,我不知道他真名叫什么——他给伍德沃德提供情报,伍德沃德是罗伯特·雷德福演的,他们在地下停车场碰头。

[01:03:59] Terry Smith: I mean, one that we quote all the time is the movie, All the President’s Men, about the Watergate affair, which has got so many quotes now, I don’t know where, and you know, the bit where Deep Throat, who’s the FBI deputy director, I don’t know who it is, but he’s giving information to Woodward, paid by paid by Rob Redford, and he meets him in the car park.

[01:04:18] 特里·史密斯:他给的一条关键建议是:跟着钱走。钱。你要是想知道发生了什么,跟着钱走就行,对吧?这类例子多得是。你知道,我们日复一日解释事情的时候,会给自己放片段。《卡萨布兰卡》里有一段,警察去查封里克咖啡馆。

[01:04:18] Terry Smith: And one of his critical pieces of advice is, Follow the money. The money. If you want to know what’s going on, just follow the money. Right? And there’s lots of examples of things like that. You know, we play to ourselves clips when we’re explaining things day in and day out. There’s the bit in Casablanca where the gendarme goes to close down Rick’s Cafe.

[01:04:35] 特里·史密斯:他吹响哨子说:这地方被查封了。听说这里有人赌博,我真是震惊。然后一个侍者走过来说:先生,您赢了。每次我们读到这种东西——是啊,显然有人为了在尼日利亚做生意而行贿——我们总是玩《卡萨布兰卡》那个梗,对吧?

[01:04:35] Terry Smith: He blows his whistle and he says, This place is closed down. I’m shocked to hear there’s been gambling here and one of the waiting staff comes by and goes you’re winning sir. Whenever we read one of these things out, yes, apparently somebody has been bribing people to do business in Nigeria. We always play the Casablanca game, right?

[01:04:52] 威廉·格林:我记得霍华德·马克斯跟我引用过克林特·伊斯特伍德在《紧急搜捕令》里的台词:一个人得知道自己的局限。

[01:04:52] William Green: I remember Howard Marks quoting to me Clint Eastwood in Magnum Force saying a man’s got to know his limitations.

[01:04:58] 特里·史密斯:这句我也总引用。一个好人知道自己的局限——当他被警察局长告知,要他去给坏人送赎金时。

[01:04:58] Terry Smith: I quote that one too all the time. A gr a good man knows his limitations when the, he’s told by the chief of police, he is being asked to deliver the ransom to the bad guy.

[01:05:07] 特里·史密斯:他说:我们不想让你开枪。我说:我当了 20 年警察,从没拔过枪。他说:那很好。哦,为什么?这个人知道自己的局限。太好了。那部电影里到处都是好台词,能让人学到东西,在我看来。

[01:05:07] Terry Smith: And he says, we don’t want any gunplay from you. Call I. And he said, I was a cop for 20 years and I never ran holes of my weapon. He says, that’s good. Oh, why? This man knows his limitations. It’s great. Quote the movie is littered with great quotes that you can that you can learn something from, in my view.

[01:05:22] 威廉·格林:所以这个观点——人们只听自己想听的,忽略其余——真的很重要。而你长期以来一直在团队中运作,对吧。你有朱利安·罗宾斯,我想你们共事 38 年了,他是你的研究主管,帮你共同创立了公司。你有时称他为你的指定接班人——如果你在 145 岁退休的话——还有“小罗宾斯先生”,大家也这么叫你。跟我说说,有这样一个搭档有什么帮助?因为我见过很多这种情况——霍华德·马克斯跟我谈过布鲁斯·卡什;乔尔·格林布拉特跟我谈过罗伯·戈尔茨坦;我还采访过查理很多次,你知道,他显然就是那个——

[01:05:22] William Green: So this idea of how people hear what they want and disregard the rest is really important. And you’ve operated in a. In a team for a long time. Right. You’ve had Julian Robbins, I think you’ve worked with for 38 years, and he’s your head of research and he helped you co-found the firm, and you sometimes talk him as your dedicated your designated successor if you retire at the age of 145 and young Mr. Robbins as you’ve been known then. Yeah. Tell me how it helps to have a partner like that because I see this a lot right with, I mean look Howard Marks talked to me about Bruce Kosh Joel Greenblatt talked to me about Rob Goldstein I’ve interviewed Charlie a lot right who you know, obviously was the abominable.

[01:06:03] 威廉·格林:——沃伦身边不可或缺的人。谈谈有搭档在应对自身盲点、潜在偏见这类事情上有什么帮助。

[01:06:03] William Green: No man for Warren Talk about how it helps in terms of just dealing with your own blind spots and potential biases and the like to have partners.

[01:06:13] 特里·史密斯:是的,我觉得朱利安非常聪明。顺便说一句,他历史学拿了一等学位,而且非常诚实。他跟我不同。差异之一在于,他有时能看到事情进展中的细微之处,那些我会忽略的地方。

[01:06:13] Terry Smith: Yeah, I think that Julian is very intelligent. He’s also got a first in history by the way, and very honest, and he’s different to me. And amongst the differences are That he sometimes sees things in terms of the subtleties of what’s going on that, that I miss.

[01:06:32] 特里·史密斯:他有一种很好的方式,能把这些问题指出来,又不惹恼我。基本上,他能让我理解某件事,而不用为此吵架。这一点很重要。他会说:不,我不会买那个,因为这样这样。你有没有想过这个,从某某角度——他几乎有一种诀窍,比如买欧莱雅的时候,他会说:嗯,你知道,我觉得如果你把市盈率拿过来,对着车牌边缘的镜子大致看一下,还行。

[01:06:32] Terry Smith: And he’s got a very good way of pointing them out to me without pissing me off. Basically, he can get me to understand something without getting into a fight over it. And that’s quite important that he says, no, I wouldn’t buy that because of this. And have you thought about this, in terms of, and he’s almost got a way of saying, like, you know, buying L’Oreal, he’ll go well, you know, I think if you take the PE ratio, roughly look at it in a mirror on edge of car license plate, it’s okay.

[01:06:58] 特里·史密斯:其实呢,他就是在糊弄我,对吧?我是说,不知怎么的,他就能让我觉得——他说的那个角度看问题也许有道理——然后我就去买了,事后才意识到:不,他就是把我忽悠进去的,不是吗?他心里清楚,要是他没把我忽悠进去,我就会一直坐在那儿想:不行,太贵了点,然后我们永远都不会买。

[01:06:58] Terry Smith: And really, he’s just duping me, right? I mean, and somehow, he manages to get my he might have a point about looking at it that way, you know, and I go and buy it, and really, I realize, no, he just talked me into that, didn’t he? He realized that I, if I hadn’t been talked into it, I would always have been sitting there going, no, it’s a bit too expensive, and then we never owed him.

[01:07:16] 特里·史密斯:所以他就找了个聪明的法子,活生生把我骗了进去,是不是?你瞧,他就是这么干的。而且他有一颗极强的好奇心。他确实非常喜欢股票市场,而且他喜欢——他在美国住了,我不知道,大概 30 年了——他对美国和股票市场有着丰富的知识,他能把这些知识运用起来,这是我完全做不到的。

[01:07:16] Terry Smith: So he just found a clever way of bloody spoofing me into it, didn’t he? You know, and he did, and he’s got a great inquiring mind. He actually really likes the stock market and he likes, he’s lived in America for I don’t know, 30 years now and he’s got a wealth of knowledge about America and the and the stock market that he brings to bear in a way that I simply can’t.

[01:07:38] 特里·史密斯:就算我跟华尔街打交道,而且在华尔街工作过,我永远也不会有他那种广度和深度的知识,你知道吧。

[01:07:38] Terry Smith: As much as I deal with Wall Street and I’ve worked on Wall Street, I’ll never have that length and depth of knowledge that he’s got, you know.

[01:07:46] 威廉·格林:你对美国有一种很有意思的侧重,在一个号称全球基金的里面,对吧?我前几天查了一下,我记得大概 74% 在美国,而且显然,你知道,存在公司注册地之类的问题。法国大概占 9%。

[01:07:46] William Green: You have a very interesting sort of emphasis on the US in what purports to be a global fund, right? I mean, when I checked the other day, I mean, I think it was 74 percent in the US and obviously, you know, there are these issues over where a company is domiciled and all the like. You know, France is about 9%.

[01:08:04] 特里·史密斯:有个公司总部在美国,但在这个数字里——它在美国的销售额是零。

[01:08:04] Terry Smith: There’s no resales in the U. S. We had a company that was U. S. and, in that number, that had zero in sales in the U. S.

[01:08:10] 威廉·格林:但很明显,美国是你巨大的狩猎场。我的意思是,有微软和 Meta 这样的公司。当你想这个问题的时候——是什么让美国这

[01:08:10] William Green: But it’s clear that the U. S. is a massive hunting ground for you. I mean, with all these companies like Microsoft and Meta. When you think about this issue of what makes the U.

[01:08:21] 威廉·格林:特别之处在于,这是否是一种永久性的优势(如果真有永久性优势这回事),还是说这只是另一种钟摆式摆动,迟早钟摆会摆回新兴市场或其他地方。你怎么看?我的意思是,你以前有过一只新兴市场基金,后来在某个时点把它关掉了。美国是不是就是一个持续赢家?

[01:08:21] William Green: S. special and whether this is just a sort of A permanent if anything is permanent advantage or whether it’s just another kind of pendulum swing and sooner or later, you know, the pendulum will swing back to emerging markets or whatever else. What do you think? I mean, how, you know, you used to have an emerging markets fund and then you closed it at a certain point. Is the US just a persistent winner?

[01:08:45] 特里·史密斯:顺便说一句,我们做对了。

[01:08:45] Terry Smith: We’re right by the way.

[01:08:47] 威廉·格林:是啊。

[01:08:47] William Green: Yeah.

[01:08:47] 特里·史密斯:我们一直如此,而且我们对了。你看,美国是全球最大的经济体。咱们就先从这一点说起,行吗?其次,它拥有全球最活跃的资本市场。所以当我们谈论公司在哪里上市时,你会发现,越来越多地,就像你在伦敦看到的大量人才外流一样,公司正在美国上市,而这些公司并不在美国。

[01:08:47] Terry Smith: We’ve continued to and we’re right. Look, the US is the biggest economy in the world. Let’s just start with that, shall we? Secondly, it has the most active capital market in the world. So when we’re talking about where companies are listed you know, increasingly as you’ll see much of the Charan of people in London, companies are listing in America, which are not in America.

[01:09:05] 特里·史密斯:所以,我的意思是,既然它是最大的经济体,既然它拥有最活跃的资本市场,我几乎想说,如果你在做我们做的事情,为什么你在美国的公司配置不比现在更多?这怎么说得通呢?对吧?因为,如果你是一家考虑上市的公司,如果我在考虑上市,我为什么要考虑在伦敦做这件事呢?

[01:09:05] Terry Smith: So, I mean, you know, given that it’s the biggest economy and given that it’s got the most active capital market. I’d almost say, if you’re doing what we’re doing, why haven’t you got more companies in America than it was? How does this work then? Right? Because, you know, if you are a company thinking of listing, if I were thinking of listing, Why would I think about doing it in London?

[01:09:21] 特里·史密斯:市场深度最大、流动性最强、对投资者吸引力最大的地方是纽约,不是吗?然后你再想想,公司是如何成长为规模庞大、利润丰厚的企业的。帮助美国公司的一个因素就是,它们有机会先在全球最大的市场上建立自己的实力,然后才走出国门、征服世界。

[01:09:21] Terry Smith: The greatest depth of market, the biggest liquidity, the most investor attraction is in New York, isn’t it? You know, and then you think about how companies become big and very profitable companies. One of the things that helps American companies is that they get the opportunity to build their strength in the biggest market in the world before they move out and take on the world.

[01:09:44] 特里·史密斯:所以,不管是科技、医疗还是消费领域,它们先在主场站稳脚跟、成为主导者。然后当它们向更广阔的世界扩张时,别人很难跟它们竞争。你知道吗,当可口可乐和百事可乐进入英国市场时,你真的觉得有人能跟它们一较高下吗?

[01:09:44] Terry Smith: So, you know, whether it’s in technology or health care or consumer and so on, they sit there and they become the dominant player then. Then when they reach out into the wider world, it’s very difficult for people to compete with them. You know, when Coca Cola and PepsiCo arrive in the UK, do you really think that they’re going to give them a run for their money?

[01:10:02] 特里·史密斯:而且,一旦它们在自己的市场站稳了脚跟,那相邻市场呢?比如在欧洲,Britvic 拿什么跟可口可乐竞争?它们就像一个在健身房里练得浑身肌肉的拳击手,在芝加哥的简陋拳馆里跟全世界最顶尖的重量级拳手对练过,然后跑出来跟一个本地拳手打比赛。

[01:10:02] Terry Smith: And once, so that’s in their own market, how about once we get it to an adjacent market? So, so in Europe, how’s Britvic going to do there against Coca Cola? When they’ve, you know, it’s, they’re like a boxer who’s pumped up in the gym, who’s been fighting, you know, he’s been in the cronk gym in Chicago, fighting the best heavyweights in the world in sparring, and then he turns up and he’s fighting a hometown fighter somewhere.

[01:10:23] 特里·史密斯:在另一个国家,那种感觉就像,我真想知道这比赛会打成什么样。所以你只需要记住这一点:美国是全球最大的经济体,拥有全球最大的资本市场,而像可口可乐、微软、史赛克这些公司,有能力在那里打下惊人的基础,然后才走向更广阔的世界,迎战当地的竞争对手。

[01:10:23] Terry Smith: In another country, like, I wonder how this is going to go. So you just got to bear in mind, it’s the biggest economy with the biggest capital market and the companies, the Coca Cola’s and the Microsoft’s and the Stryker’s and so on, have had the ability to build a fantastic base there before they move out into the wider world and take on the local competition.

[01:10:44] 特里·史密斯:然后还有其他因素,当你放眼全球时。你看欧洲,那句名言说得好:美国创新,欧洲监管,中国复制,日本复制。欧洲搞的那些东西,比如《数字市场法案》,我看他们干脆竖块牌子,写上“高科技恕不欢迎”算了。

[01:10:44] Terry Smith: Then you get on to other factors as well, when you look at the world at large. You know, Europe you know, the great saying is America innovates, Europe China replicates, China or Japan replicates, and Europe regulates. I mean, some of the stuff that’s going on in Europe, like the Digital Markets Act, they may as well put up a sign here saying, high tech not welcome, I would say.

[01:11:02] 特里·史密斯:看到最近市场的驱动力,其实挺难过的,因为看看那些站在科技顶端的公司,我知道我和另外十亿人都会说,它们对回报的统治力之大有点令人担忧,但英国最大的科技公司是谁?

[01:11:02] Terry Smith: And it’s kind of sad if you see what’s driven the market in recent times, because Look at the heights of technology in in terms of the companies, and I know I and a billion other people go, Oh, that’s a bit worrying in terms of the size of their domination of returns, but what’s the biggest UK technology company?

[01:11:18] 威廉·格林:天知道。好像没什么真正出名的,对吧?

[01:11:18] William Green: God knows. There’s nothing really famous, is there?

[01:11:22] 特里·史密斯:嗯,我说的是在伦敦上市的赛捷,一家会计软件公司,顺便说一句,那是门好生意。我对赛捷没有任何意见。请不要误会,它其实是一家非常优秀的企业。但就仅此而已了。一家总部位于纽卡斯尔的会计软件公司,就是英国最大的本土软件科技公司。

[01:11:22] Terry Smith: Well, I’m talking about List in the UK, Sage, an account, which by the way is a good business. I’ve got nothing against Sage. Please don’t take it as that being, it’s a very good business, in fact. But that’s it. An accounting software company based in Newcastle is the UK’s biggest indigenous software technology company.

[01:11:37] 威廉·格林:我都不好意思说,我从来没听说过这家公司。所以,我是说,我人在纽约,但我从来没听说过它。

[01:11:37] William Green: And I’m embarrassed to say I’ve never even heard of it. So that’s, I mean, I’m based in New York and I’ve never heard of it.

[01:11:42] 特里·史密斯:你这么说真有意思。我们碰巧知道,当时他们在找首席执行官,顺便说一句,这绝不是在批评现任首席执行官,我觉得他是个不错的人。

[01:11:42] Terry Smith: It’s funny you should say that. We happen to know that when they were looking for a chief executive, and by the way, this is not meant to be in any way a criticism of the current chief executive, I think he’s a good guy.

[01:11:50] 特里·史密斯:但他是内部提拔的。他之所以是内部提拔,其中一个原因就是,他们找了猎头去物色首席执行官。你什么时候开始找?如果你要给一家软件公司找猎头,你大概会从硅谷开始吧,对不对?所以他们在那里找了家猎头,说,你去转转,看看能不能找到愿意上位的首席运营官或者二把手之类的人。

[01:11:50] Terry Smith: But he is an internal appointment. The reason he’s an internal appointment, amongst anything else, is they went out to headhunters to try and get a CEO and when will you start? If you’re looking for a headhunter for a software firm, you’d start in Silicon Valley pretty much, wouldn’t you? So they got a headhunter there and said, go around, see if you can find any COOs or number twos, or whatever would like to step up.

[01:12:06] 特里·史密斯:结果你刚才的反应,就是他们从所有人那里得到的反应。没听说过。天哪,我不觉得欧洲在那些我们认定的好生意领域有任何要超越美国的迹象。不,我看不到任何迹象。总之,我也不能说中国怎么样,因为在那里你并不真正拥有这家企业,对吧?

[01:12:06] Terry Smith: And the response you just had is the response they got from everybody. Never heard of it. God, I don’t think that Europe is about to overtake the United States in any of the areas that we’ve that we’ve identified as being good businesses. No, I can’t see any. Anyway, I can’t say China is difficult because you don’t truly own the business, right?

[01:12:23] 特里·史密斯:我的意思是,你实际上是跟中国政府合伙经营,不管是好是坏,尤其是在高科技领域。而日本,至少到最近为止,企业并不是为了股东的利益而经营的。它们是为了员工和整个日本的利益而经营的,你知道,我们讨论的资本回报之类的东西。

[01:12:23] Terry Smith: I mean, you are actually in partnership with the Chinese government for good or ill, particularly in the high tech businesses. And Japan, at least until very recently, businesses weren’t run for the benefit of shareholders. They were run for the benefit of the employees and the wider Japan, as it were, you know, returns on capital and things like we’re discussing.

[01:12:41] 特里·史密斯:我们觉得,就这样吧。所以这就是为什么我们配置的不多。不是我们不喜欢它们。我们其实对欧洲公司还挺有好感的,特指我们喜欢的那个行业里的那些由家族经营、拥有非常长期视野的公司。所以如果你翻看我们的投资组合,像欧莱雅、LVMH、阿特拉斯·科普柯,我们确实很喜欢它们。但这样的公司很少见,是稀罕物。抱歉,我刚才打断你了。你继续说。

[01:12:41] Terry Smith: We’re like okay. So that’s why we haven’t got very much. It’s not that we don’t like them. We actually have a bit of a soft spot for European companies. in the industries that we like, which are run by families and have a very long term perspective. So if you ever look in our portfolio, things like L’Oreal, LVMH, Atlas Copco, you know, we do like them. But they’re rare, they’re rarities. Sorry, I interrupted you there. Go ahead.

[01:13:02] 威廉·格林:没有,我只是在想,有意思的是,两个不住在英格兰的英国人在讨论这个问题。这本身就说明了一些问题……

[01:13:02] William Green: No, I was just wondering because I mean, it’s interesting that there’s the discussion between two Englishmen who are not living in England. So that tells us something about…

[01:13:11] 特里·史密斯:这不是巧合,对吧?

[01:13:11] Terry Smith: We’re not a coincidence, that, is it?

[01:13:12] 威廉·格林:没错。我的意思是,我觉得我们俩都热爱英格兰,都喜欢待在那里,但当你搬走之后,确实能感受到一种活力。

[01:13:12] William Green: Right. I mean, and both of us, I think, love England and love being there, but there is a dynamism when you move.

[01:13:19] 威廉·格林:当然,搬到纽约的时候感受特别明显。但当你想到英国经济的未来时,我回去的时候,有时候会觉得,我是说,我其实只去伦敦,而且我肯定会惹恼这里很多人,但我觉得它几乎已经变成了一个游乐场,至少在我去的那些地方是这样,那些地方其实并不具有代表性。

[01:13:19] William Green: Certainly when you move to New York, but when you think about the future of the British economy, when I go back, I sometimes feel like, I mean, I only really go to London, but, and I’m no doubt going to annoy lots of people here, but I feel like it’s almost become a kind of playground, at least in, in the areas I, I go to, which are not that representative.

[01:13:39] 威廉·格林:它已经变成了外国富豪的游乐场,对吧?作为经济体来说,它并不是真正有活力的。它更像是一个供别人来花钱的美妙地方。

[01:13:39] William Green: It’s become a playground for the foreign rich, right? It’s not really dynamic as an economy. It’s more a really wonderful place for other people to come and spend.

[01:13:49] 特里·史密斯:我觉得伦敦确实如此,而我是个伦敦人,所以我对伦敦感情很深。我认为它大概是世界上最伟大的城市,但我显然在这个看法上并不客观。

[01:13:49] Terry Smith: It’s true of London, I think, and I’m a Londoner, so I feel strongly about London. I think it’s the greatest city in the world, probably, but I’m obviously not exactly objective in that opinion.

[01:13:58] 特里·史密斯:而且我觉得很遗憾,你描述的情况至少部分属实。但我认为这确实解释了英国经济及其整体处境。我还觉得,英国经济在创新方面一直有长处,在医疗保健领域的创新记录相当出色。

[01:13:58] Terry Smith: And it’s sad, I think, that what you describe is at least partly true. But I think that really explains the British economy and where it stands for all. I think also what the British economy has been good at in terms of innovation, and it’s got a great record of innovation in in healthcare.

[01:14:12] 特里·史密斯:它有很棒的特效药和其他领域的成果。在技术的多个方面也有建树。比如 Arm,在低功耗移动电话芯片方面,它长期以来一直是霸主。它也培育了不少品牌。这些都是经过长期发展积累下来的,非常不错。

[01:14:12] Terry Smith: It’s got great drugs and other areas. It’s got it in technology in a number of regards. Arm, in terms of, you know, low power. Chips for mobile telephony. They’ve dominated that over time. It’s got it in in a number of brands as well. That it’s over time that it’s developed, which has been very good.

[01:14:28] 特里·史密斯:但我认为,它暴露出来的问题,归根结底,在我看来,是英国弥漫着一种反创业、反资本主义——随便你怎么叫——的精神。我觉得这个问题已经存在很久了。我觉得英美之间最大的差异之一,而且我跟你一样,我热爱纽约,我在纽约有过一套公寓,在那里待过很长时间,那就是——我意识到这是一种概括——美国人倾向于效仿成功,而英国人倾向于摧毁或批评它。

[01:14:28] Terry Smith: But it’s I think that the problems that it exhibits are, in the end, I think there is in my view, an anti-entrepreneurial, anti-kind of capitalist, whatever you want to call it, spirit abroad in the UK. And it’s been problematic, I think, for a very long time. I don’t think. I think one of the biggest differences with America, and like you, I love New York, I had an apartment in New York for some time and spent a lot of time there, is I think on the whole, and I realize this is a generalization, Americans wish to emulate success, Britons wish to destroy or criticize it.

[01:15:00] 特里·史密斯:这是我的看法,而且恐怕我觉得这真的没什么好处。你知道,我们得学会欣赏那些成功人士,为他们喝彩,希望效仿他们、让成功成倍增长,而不是想方设法把人家拉下来。所以,关于英国的另一件事,我觉得你对伦敦的看法大概是对的,但一旦你离开伦敦,有几件事就会变得很明显。

[01:15:00] Terry Smith: That’s my take on it and me I’m afraid, you know, I don’t think that’s helpful really, you know, we’ve got to learn to appreciate people who are successful and applaud it and wish to emulate them and multiply it, not bring them down in some way. So, and the other thing about the UK is I think you’re probably right about London, but once you go outside London, the thing that becomes evident to me is a number of things.

[01:15:18] 特里·史密斯:其中一个问题是,它正在被逐渐掏空。我的意思是,我们过去赖以生存的制造业,大体上已经消失了。但回到我之前关于进步的论述,这并非新鲜事,你知道的。就拿纺织业来说,它起源于工业革命时期的英格兰北部,然后在内战之后迁移到美国东北部,接着又迁移到香港这样的地方,再从香港这样的地方迁到毛里求斯,然后当它离开一个国家、那个国家变成中等收入国家后,它又迁到了埃塞俄比亚、柬埔寨和马达加斯加这样的地方。

[01:15:18] Terry Smith: One of them is it’s being somewhat hollowed out. I mean, The industries which we used to rely on for manufacturing have by and large gone. But going back to what I was saying earlier about progress, that’s not new, you know. If you take the textile industry, it originated in the north of England in the Industrial Revolution, then it migrated to America in the northeast after the Civil War, and then it migrated to places like Hong Kong, and then it’s migrated from places like Hong Kong to places like Mauritius, and then it’s gone from places, it’s become a middle income country, it’s gone to places like Ethiopia and Cambodia and Madagascar.

[01:15:48] 特里·史密斯:它在不断迁移,你自己也得跟着前进。说“好吧,我想我们会重新开始”是没有用的。我不是在哀叹纺织业从英格兰那些“黑暗的撒旦磨坊”中消失。你必须转向新产业,但你确实需要转向新产业。你不需要让一半的人口受雇于公共部门——而现在就是这种情况。

[01:15:48] Terry Smith: And it keeps moving and you have to move on yourself. It’s no good saying, well, I think we’ll start. I’m not lamenting the absence of the textile industry from the dark satanic bills of the whole England. You have to move to new industries, but you do need to move to new industries. You don’t need to have half the population employed by the public sector, which it is.

[01:16:05] 特里·史密斯:这不会有帮助,对吧,因为他们实际上什么都不会创造。给你看一个统计数据。美国最穷的州是密西西比州。密西西比州的收入中位数,我会给你一个确切的数字,但不在这次电话里说,大约是 44000 美元。而这和英国的收入中位数是一样的。

[01:16:05] Terry Smith: That’s not going to be helpful, right, because they aren’t actually going to create anything whatsoever. Here’s a statistic for you. The poorest state in America is Mississippi. And the median income in Mississippi, and I’ll give you an exact figure, but not on this call, but is about 44,000 US dollars. Now, that’s the same as the median income of the UK.

[01:16:27] 特里·史密斯:哪里出了问题?因为肯定有什么地方出了问题。我的意思是,想想看,我觉得很多人去美国主要城市群以外的地方旅行时,最受触动的一点是,一旦你走出那些偏远地区,美国有多贫穷。嗯,是的,但英国到处都相当贫穷,你知道,除了伦敦和少数几个大城市这些飞地之外,英国的情况和美国的差距,不只是和整个美国比,而是和美国最穷的州一样糟糕。

[01:16:27] Terry Smith: What went wrong? Because something’s definitely gone wrong. I mean, think about, because I think one of the things that strikes a lot of people when they travel around America outside of the main conurbations is how poor America is once you get out into the, out of the boonies. Well, yeah, but the UK is pretty poor all over, you know, outside of those enclaves of London and a few other major cities, the UK is as bad as not just in America, but the poorest state in America.

[01:16:54] 特里·史密斯:对于这一点,我不是在搞党派政治。我的观点是,如果——我不在英国选举中投票,我不在选民名册上——但如果他们举行选举,他们抽签,可以把我也算进去,我会让他们知道我会投哪一边。但本质上,那是我对他们的看法。

[01:16:54] Terry Smith: I’m not being party political in terms of my views on this. I’m, you know, my view is if they, I don’t vote in elections in the UK, I’m not on the electoral register, but if they had an election, they had a draw, they could bring me and I’d let them know which way I would have voted. But because that’s my view on them, essentially.

[01:17:06] 特里·史密斯:但在我看来,英国的两党对这个令人遗憾的局面都负有相当大的责任。

[01:17:06] Terry Smith: But both sides of the divide in the UK seem to me to have a rather large responsibility for this lamentable state of affairs.

[01:17:14] 威廉·格林:美国肯定有一种巨大的活力,我觉得,我明确记得在金融危机期间,当时美国显然引发了世界上的许多问题,每个人都在幸灾乐祸地说,美国完蛋了,然后——如果你住在这里,你就会有这种感觉:它是如此充满活力,资本流向好想法的速度如此之快——说到这个……

[01:17:14] William Green: There’s certainly a tremendous dynamism in the US that I think, I definitely remember when, during the financial crisis, when, you know, obviously the US kind of triggered a lot of the world’s problems and everyone was sort of gleefully saying, you know, well, the US is finished and, you know, now things, and if you lived here, you just had this sense, it’s so dynamic and the flow of capital to good ideas is so quick speaking of which…

[01:17:38] 特里·史密斯:还要有解决问题的意愿。我在信里引述过,联合利华,我们打了一场持续多年的仗。我的意思是,可以说经历了两任首席执行官,试图把事情理顺,相比之下,耐克。

[01:17:38] Terry Smith: The willingness to deal with things when they go wrong. I quoted in my letter that said, you know, we had Unilever where we had a, you know, a battle that lasted many years. I mean, you could say through two CEOs to try and get the place straightened out in comparison with Nike.

[01:17:52] 特里·史密斯:你知道,首席执行官把实体业务搞砸了。他走了。就这样,结束了。而我——人们觉得这太糟糕了。我不认为这很糟糕。关于经营企业,我的一个信条是:我认为,除非你自己被解雇过,否则你永远不应该被允许解雇别人。对吧?

[01:17:52] Terry Smith: You know, the chief executive screwed up the bricks and mortar. He’s gone. Right, that’s it. And I People are so terrible. I don’t think it is terrible. One of my mantras about running a business is, I don’t think you should ever be allowed to fire people unless you’ve been fired yourself. Right?

[01:18:07] 特里·史密斯:因为你需要知道那是什么感觉。如果你要坐在一个房间里,真的要解雇别人,我认为你得能够带着同理心和他们交谈。所以我不赞成像电锯一样把人处理掉,但我赞成活力。

[01:18:07] Terry Smith: Because you need to know what this feels like. And if you’re going to sit in a room and you’re going to actually fire people, you need to be able to talk to them from a position of empathy, I think in my view. So I’m not in favor of just, you know, going like a chainsaw of people, but I am in favor of dynamism.

[01:18:22] 特里·史密斯:你描述的活力,部分来自把握——不仅仅是资金流向新想法——还有如何处理问题,你知道,那种改变人们居住地、工作内容、为谁工作的活力,美国是另一个层次,我觉得。

[01:18:22] Terry Smith: And dynamism only comes, that you’re describing, in part from grasping, not just money going for new ideas. But also how to deal with problems, you know, the dynamism of changing where people are living, what jobs they’re doing, who they work for is you know, the U. S. is in another league, I think.

[01:18:38] 威廉·格林:我觉得你也很不寻常,因为你不仅是一个非常成功的选股者,你实际上也是一个非常成功的首席执行官。我的意思是,你担任过两家上市经纪公司的首席执行官,其中一家你把它发展到大约 3000 名员工,另一家你让它上市了,还有很多并购和分拆之类的事情。

[01:18:38] William Green: I think you’re unusual also in that you’ve not only been a very successful stock picker, but you were actually a very successful CEO. I mean, you’ve been a CEO of two public brokerage companies, one of which I think you’ve built into having about 3000 employees and the other you floated and there were lots of mergers and de mergers and the like.

[01:18:55] 威廉·格林:那是在 1990 年代和 2000 年代,这让我想起当我读到你作为首席执行官的经历时,巴菲特那句著名的话:我是一个更好的投资者,因为我是一个商人;我是一个更好的商人,因为我是一个投资者。所以我想知道,你能不能谈一谈,作为首席执行官,你学到了哪些对作为投资者有帮助的东西?

[01:18:55] William Green: And this is back in the 1990s and 2000s and it reminded me when I was reading about your past as a CEO of the quote from Buffett where he famously said, I’m a better investor because I’m a businessman and a better businessman because I’m an investor. And so I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about what you learned. As a CEO, that’s helped you as an investor.

[01:19:20] 特里·史密斯:是的,我是说,看,其中一点是,变革往往需要时间。尽管我说过快速行动是好的,但即便你行动迅速,你仍然需要实施变革。你可能换了人,你还得有变革。而且往往需要资金、努力和很多其他的东西。

[01:19:20] Terry Smith: Yeah, I mean, look, one of them is that change requires time, quite often. Notwithstanding me saying, you know, acting quickly is good. Because even if you act quickly, you’ve still got change to implement. You might change the person, you’ve got change. And quite often money and effort and lots of other things.

[01:19:32] 特里·史密斯:我有个非常好的朋友,在英国经营钢铁生意。他说,当他还是上市公司的时候——现在已经不是了,他私有化了——他说,分析师打电话来问他如何改变现状,让他想起了森林,但这很好笑。他们以为我办公室墙上有两个按钮,一个红的,一个绿的。

[01:19:32] Terry Smith: So, I’ve got a very good friend of mine who’s got a steel business in the UK. And he said, when he was a quoted company, which he’s not anymore, he went private. And that was he said the analysts ringing up asking him about how to change things reminded him of the forest, but it’s funny. They think that I’ve got these two buttons on my office wall, a red one and a green one.

[01:19:50] 特里·史密斯:我早上进来,按下绿按钮,上面写着“赚钱”。然后晚上穿上外套回家的时候,我想,哦,得记得按那个红按钮。他说,事情要复杂得多。我们得设计产品,得拿订单,得造模具。对吧,我觉得,除非你真的做过那些事。

[01:19:50] Terry Smith: When I come in the morning, I press the green one, which is labeled make money. And then when I put my coat on to go home at night, I think, oh, must remember to press the old red button. He said, it’s a bit more complex. We’ve got to design products, we’ve got to get orders, we’ve got to build moulds. Right, and I think, unless you’ve actually done that.

[01:20:08] 特里·史密斯:否则很难理解。就像有些人经营过基金之后,又想创办一家基金管理公司一样。我说,这就像我当研究主管时——不是 UPS,而是——人们常常来找我,因为我们有个分析师是个很重的人,大学时练链球,后来胖了很多。

[01:20:08] Terry Smith: It’s difficult to understand. I mean, it’s like people who sometimes come out of running a fund and then try and build a fund management business. And I said, well, it’s like when I was head of research at UPS, people used to come to me because one of our analysts was a very heavy guy, been a hammer thrower at college and put on a lot of weight.

[01:20:24] 特里·史密斯:他坐在马桶座圈上的时候,常常会坐坏,因为你知道,马桶是架在那些小底座上的,悬空着。这家伙,要是不小心,就会有人跑来说,我刚在马桶上把屁股割伤了。我就得说,你能不能坐得小心一点,因为老有人进来找我。

[01:20:24] Terry Smith: And when he sat on the toilet seats, he used to break them, because you know they stand on these little blocks, they’re up there. This guy, if he wasn’t careful and people would go and say, I just cut my arse on the toilet. He just, you know, and I’d have to say, like, could you just sit down a little bit more carefully, because I’ve got people keep coming in.

[01:20:40] 特里·史密斯:就像,你知道,我要说的是:日常工作并不光鲜。说到经营企业,大量的日常工作并不是像罗丹的《思想者》那样摆个姿势,然后涌现伟大的战略构想,对吧?它实际上是关于执行和落实,而很多执行和落实确实涉及处理马桶座圈之类的事情。就是如此。

[01:20:40] Terry Smith: It’s like, you know, the way I would put it is the day job isn’t glamorous. When it comes to managing businesses, quite a lot of the day job isn’t sort of striking a pose like Rodin’s The Thinker and having great strategic thoughts, right? It’s actually about execution implementation and a lot of execution implementation does involve dealing with toilet seats and the like. It just does.

[01:21:00] 威廉·格林:这和你的投资也没什么不同,对吧?在你的投资中,你谈到过,大部分是有那些宏大的理论和原则之类的东西,它们是永恒的,但还有日常的“阻挡与擒抱”,你在听电话会议,你在做自由现金流的建模。

[01:21:00] William Green: And it’s not that different with your investing right with your investing you’ve talked about how so much of it yeah you have these grand theories and principles and stuff that are kind of timeless but then there’s the blocking and tackling day to day where you’re listening to conference calls and you’re doing modeling of, you know free cash flow.

[01:21:21] 特里·史密斯:我对每一位新员工都说——这话取得了一些成功,但不是普遍的——在他们开始之前,我说,我用的正是这个说法:日常工作并不光鲜。我们所做的不是坐在这里对投资有伟大的想法。我说,我们有时候一两年或者更长时间都没有一个想法。你知道,我们发掘出的微软和 IDEX 那样的公司是相对罕见的,如果你有一个,我们很乐意听你说,但我们不会——你知道,如果你第一周就拿出三个来,我们就会有点怀疑了。

[01:21:21] Terry Smith: I say to every new recruit that we’ve had that with some success, but not Universal I say before they begin I say that I use exactly the phrase the day job is not glamorous What we do is not sitting here having great thoughts on investment I said we don’t sometimes have one for a couple of years or more of a time You know the number of Microsoft’s and IDEXs and things that we pull out that is relatively rare and if you’ve got one, we’d love to hear about it, but we don’t, you know, when you’ve got three in the first week, we’re going to get a bit suspicious.

[01:21:51] 特里·史密斯:现实是,这关乎建模、收集数据、听电话会议、写笔记、查看——这样我们就有了一份可以回读的记录,看看历史上发生了什么。这才是我们做的绝大部分工作。

[01:21:51] Terry Smith: The reality is, it’s about modeling and collecting data and listening to calls and writing up notes and looking so that we’ve got a record that we can read back through and read what’s gone on historically. And that’s really the vast majority of what we do.

[01:22:05] 威廉·格林:而且在我们开始录音之前,你告诉我办公室里有个标志。你能跟我们说说吗?因为在某种程度上,它体现了这种不屈不挠、循序渐进、不大意搞砸的心态。

[01:22:05] William Green: And you told me right before we started recording about a sign that you had in the office. Can you tell us about that? Because in, in a way it embodies this mindset of kind of dogged incremental progress and not screwing up.

[01:22:16] 特里·史密斯:我挂上了“五个 P”。所以是镶在框里的五个大写 P,这“五个 P”代表:准备(preparation)防止(prevents)糟糕透顶的表现(piss poor performance)。不要没准备好就上场。

[01:22:16] Terry Smith: I put up the five P’s. So five uppercase P’s in a frame and the five P’s stands for preparation prevents piss poor performance. Don’t turn up for something without having prepared.

[01:22:26] 特里·史密斯:不要没读上一份业绩报告和你之前写的笔记就去参加公司会议,你知道,那源于我在经纪行业的经历。我在瑞银的时候,有一次去苏格兰出差,带着一套研究报告,和首席执行官还有一个销售员一起。那个销售员,我是从另一家经纪公司过来的,我看了我们苏格兰地区的认购数据,糟糕透顶。

[01:22:26] Terry Smith: Don’t go to a company meeting and you haven’t read the last results and the note that you wrote before, you know, and it originated from a time when I was in Broking and I went on a trip to Scotland when I was at UBS, a set of research with the CEO. and a salesman. The salesman, I’d come from another broking firm and I’d looked at our Scottish buy up figures and they were terrible.

[01:22:45] 特里·史密斯:那位销售员说我们在苏格兰排名第一或者前三之类。显然并非如此。于是我们决定亲自去苏格兰查个究竟。何乐而不为呢?我们在珀斯与通用事故保险公司的人开了个会。他们都是不错的人,我认识他们。不过,你知道,他们人虽好,但骨子里带着苏格兰人那种坚毅劲儿,这倒是好事。

[01:22:45] Terry Smith: And the salesman said we were number one or top three or something in Scotland. We clearly weren’t. And so we decided we’d resolve this by going to Scotland. Why not? And we were there having a meeting with the general accidenters that was in Perth. They were lovely guys. I knew them. But you know, they were lovely guys, but with that nice steely, you know, sort of bit in the middle that you get with Scots, which is good.

[01:23:03] 特里·史密斯:他们正在交谈,讨论对服务的看法。他们说,嗯,我们怎么看待这项服务?去年我们支付了多少佣金?有一个业务出了问题。我看了看那位销售员,他说,我不知道。我说,你不知道。他们说,我们付了大约四百万英镑之类的费用。

[01:23:03] Terry Smith: And they were having a conversation about what they thought about the service. And they said, well, what do we think about the service? How much did we pay you last year in commission? There’s a broken one. I kind of looked at the salesman and he said, I don’t know. I said, you don’t know. They said, well, we paid you four million pounds or something like that.

[01:23:17] 特里·史密斯:好吧,这就是我们前一年付给你的金额,五百万。所以他们说,他们实际上是在告诉我们,嗯,他们给我们钱,他们不介意参加这样的会议或填写调查问卷。他们是在用钱包投票。总之,我走出会议室,对首席执行官说,我会开除那个家伙。

[01:23:17] Terry Smith: Well, all right. This is how much we pay you the year before. Five million. So they said, what they were telling us was, well, they were giving us, they don’t mind sitting in meetings like this or filling in surveys. They were voting with their wallet. Anyway, I came out of the meeting and I said to the CEO I would fire that guy.

[01:23:35] 特里·史密斯:我说过,跟你一同去参加会议,别管我在场,你手上没有客户的基本信息,这简直就是不行。我的意思是,这一下子就让我们明白在这儿该干什么了。而且,你知道,这没有任何借口。去公司面试,接受投资者面试,没有借口可找。

[01:23:35] Terry Smith: I said, going to a meeting with you in the room, never mind me in the room, and you don’t have the basic information on the client to hand is just a no. I mean, that tells you right off the bat what we’re doing in this here. And it’s like, you know, there is no excuse for that. There’s no excuse for turning up to interview a company, be interviewed by an investor.

[01:23:54] 特里·史密斯:你知道,如果一位投资者来采访我,比如你过来跟我说,特里,我想采访你一下,聊聊我持有基金的情况。然后我问,那你知道我在这些基金里投了多少钱吗?你说,不知道,我还真不清楚,威廉,那你投了多少呢?这开头可就糟糕了,对吧?

[01:23:54] Terry Smith: You know, if I’m being interviewed by an investor, if you were you know, coming on and say, Terry, I want to, you know, interview you about my holding in, and you go, well, how much, do you know how much I’ve got invested in funds? No, I haven’t actually got a clue William, how much have you got? It would be a bad start, wouldn’t it?

[01:24:08] 特里·史密斯:我是什么时候投资的?说实话,我也不太清楚。我的意思是,我们手里有数据,但如果我没费这个劲,你跟我投资到底是赚了还是亏了?你赚了多少钱?你知道吗?你是一直在投钱进去,还是往外取钱?在我看来,不做这些功课就贸然到场,简直荒谬至极。

[01:24:08] Terry Smith: When did I invest? I don’t know, actually. I mean, we’ve got data on this, but if I hadn’t taken the trouble, have you made money or have you lost money with me? How much money have you made? You know? Have you been putting money in or taking money out? And the idea of turning up without doing all this work is just preposterous in my view.

[01:24:23] 威廉·格林:我在想,回顾你的青年时期,你出身贫寒,后来作为工薪家庭的孩子进了卡迪夫的大学学院,然后拿下了 MBA,但并非出自哈佛或沃顿,对吧?

[01:24:23] William Green: I sort of wonder if when I look back at your youth, right, where you know, you came from this poor background and then, you know, you’re like this working class kid going to university college in Cardiff and then you know, you get your MBA, but it’s not from Harvard or Wharton, right?

威廉·格林:这个问题来自亨利管理学院。我在想,是不是因为一直当个局外人,凡事都得靠自己拼,这一点对你的成功特别关键。我想知道,是不是你成功路上很核心的一块,就是你不得不去争抢、咬牙坚持、比别人更拼命,你好像一直都是那种争强好胜的局外人。这跟你有共鸣吗?

[01:24:36] William Green: It’s from Henley School of Management, you know. And I’m wondering if like there’s something about having been an outsider and having to fight for everything that you’ve done that’s been really key to your success. I wonder if there’s something very central to your success that you’ve had to kind of scrap and be tenacious and work harder and you were always sort of this super competitive outsider. Does that resonate with you?

[01:25:03] 特里·史密斯:确实,我觉得那说得相当准。我认为这就是很大一部分原因。我从来不属于什么建制派,不管是哪种。我是说,我猜现在有新的建制派渐渐取代了旧的。我从来都不是那圈子里的。

[01:25:03] Terry Smith: Yeah, I think that’s pretty accurate actually. I think that’s a large part of this. I’ve never been part of a, whatever the establishment is. I mean, I suspect we’ve got a new establishment now that’s replaced some of the old establishment in time. I’ve never been part of that.

[01:25:15] 特里·史密斯:其实我也从未想过要加入其中。无论是字面上还是比喻意义上,我都不觉得自己特别想加入某个俱乐部或类似的组织。是的,我一直觉得自己有点像个局外人,必须自己去争取一切,而且我认为总体上处于这种境况或许是件好事。你知道,我曾和某人在一次晚宴上交谈,席间有位宾客的儿子正在用餐。当我们俩离开时,他对我说,我有五个儿子,我会送他们去吃饭。我说,是吗,我可不会。

[01:25:15] Terry Smith: I’ve never wanted to be part of it either actually. It’s never struck me that I particularly wanted to join any club or anything like that literal or metaphorical in, in that regard, and yeah, I have always felt that I was a bit of an outsider, and I had to work for things, and I think it’s probably a good thing on the whole to be in that situation and I had a, you know, conversation with somebody who were having a dinner, and at the dinner was someone’s son who was eating, and when we were, the pair of us were leaving, and he said to me, I’ve got five sons I’d send in to eat, and I said, would you, I wouldn’t.

[01:25:44] 特里·史密斯:他说,为什么?他说,你知道,这世上人人都往那儿走。我说,我就是不觉得这有什么大好的。我觉得,你知道,我宁愿他去一所很普通的学校,搞清楚这个世界究竟是怎么运作的,你懂的。我那位钢铁行业的朋友,我之前跟你提过的,他们家就是家族企业。

[01:25:44] Terry Smith: He said, why? He said, it’s, you know, where everybody runs the world goes. I said, I just don’t see this as a great positive. I think, you know, I would. Rather that he went to a very ordinary school and found out how the world really works, you know. My friend, the steel man who I was telling you about, it’s a family business.

[01:26:03] 特里·史密斯:他是那个家族几代人传承企业的子弟,却拒绝上公立学校,自己考进了文法学校。我觉得这既值得称赞,也对他有好处,因为你想,当你走访一位创始人,跟人聊天时,如果你时不时地跟他们并肩同行过,可能更能理解他们的问题所在,以及他们在忙些什么,你明白吗?

[01:26:03] Terry Smith: He’s a son of a family that’s owned it for several generations. And he refused to go to public school and put himself into grammar school. And I think it’s to his credit, but also to his benefit, because I think, you know, when you’re walking through a founder and talking to people, you might be able to understand a little more what their issues are and what they’re doing if you actually have been alongside them from time to time, you know?

[01:26:25] 威廉·格林:这确实是个很有意思的话题。我是说,你知道,我上过伊顿公学和牛津大学,但我其实是个犹太孩子,你知道,家里是从俄罗斯、乌克兰和波兰逃出来的。所以我记得去一个朋友家时的情景。

[01:26:25] William Green: It’s such an interesting issue. I mean, you know, I went to Eton and I went to Oxford, but I’m a Jewish kid with you know, from a family that fled from Russia and Ukraine and Poland. And so I remember going to a friend’s house.

[01:26:39] 特里·史密斯:对于一个局外人伊顿来说。

[01:26:39] Terry Smith: For an outsider Eaton.

威廉·格林:没错,就是这样。布鲁斯·格林沃德曾对我说,哦,那位来自伊顿的犹太裔,我们当时一共十个人。

[01:26:41] William Green: Yeah, exactly. I mean, Bruce Greenwald once said to me, Oh yeah, the Jew from Eaton. I mean, there were ten of us.

[01:26:47] 特里·史密斯:是啊,我挺惊讶居然有那么多。

[01:26:47] Terry Smith: Yeah, I’m surprised there were that many.

[01:26:50] 威廉·格林:我觉得有些人是在假装不是。我的意思是,我认为有些人隐瞒了自己的犹太人身份。所以,作为一个局外人——对我来说,既是局外又是局内,处于两者之间——我跟谁都能自在地交谈,因为,你知道,我上学时和鲍里斯·约翰逊、戴维·卡梅伦这些人同窗,所以我知道他们其实也没什么特别了不起的,对吧?你不会太敬畏他们。因为……(交谈声)

[01:26:50] William Green: I think there were a few who were pretending not to be. I mean, I think there were some who concealed that they were Jews. And so I think being an outsider, I mean, for me, being an outsider and an insider, somewhere between the two, so I’m comfortable interviewing anyone or talking to anyone because I, you know, I was at school with people like Boris Johnson and David Cameron, so I know they were nothing really that special, right? You’re not that intimidated. Cause you [Crosstalk]

[01:27:16] 特里·史密斯:听到这个消息,我真是震惊了。

[01:27:16] Terry Smith: I’m shocked to hear that.

[01:27:18] 威廉·格林:我是说,他们当时非常,我是说,鲍里斯,我记得我还是个小男孩的时候,那时我 13 岁,他是领头的学生,显然极具魅力,是个大人物,但想到这些享有特权、非常聪明的伊顿公学学生,他们懂得写希腊诗句,却仅仅因为上过伊顿公学和牛津,就应当对公司、国家的未来做出重大影响决策,这想法让我觉得不可思议。

[01:27:18] William Green: I mean, they were very, I mean, Boris, I remember when I was a little boy, I mean, I was 13 and he was the head boy and he was clearly incredibly charismatic and a big personality, but the idea that these sort of, entitled, very bright Etonians who knew how to write Greek verse should be making big impactful decisions about the future of the company, of the country, just because they’d gone to Eton and Oxford.

[01:27:44] 威廉·格林:我的意思是,要是你认识他们,这简直可笑,因为我知道自己有多蠢。而且,你知道,我的意思是,我英语成绩全班第一。我可是个聪明人,聪明得不亚于那些孩子中的任何一个。可我知道自己是个傻瓜。

[01:27:44] William Green: I mean, it was kind of laughable if you knew them, because I knew what a fool I was. And I, you know, I mean, I came top in English in my class. I mean, I was a smart, I was as smart as a lot of those kids. And I know that I’m a moron.

[01:27:54] 特里·史密斯:但我觉得,理想的状态,如果你能达到的话——我不认为有多少人能做到——是能够与来自各种背景的人相处和交流。如果你能做到这一点,我认为你就到达了一个不错的位置。你知道,如果你能在白金汉宫与鲍里斯并肩而坐共进午餐——我确实去过白金汉宫——同时你又能去拳击馆和那些年轻的黑人孩子们一起训练,那么我认为你已经到达了一个理想的位置,这是我的看法。有时候我觉得自己在这方面很幸运,这两件事我都能做到,而且在任何一个场合都不会感到特别格格不入。

[01:27:54] Terry Smith: But the, I think the ideal place, if you can get to it, and I don’t think many do, is to be able to Get along with and communicate people with people whatever pretty much whatever their background and if you’re going to I think then you’ve got to about the right place, you know, if you can be at Buckingham Palace with Boris sitting alongside you having lunch, and I have been at Buckingham Palace, and at the same time you can go to the boxing gym with the young black kids, then I think you’ve reached a good place, is my view, and I feel sometimes I’m fortunate in that regard that I can do both those things. And not feel particularly out of place in either one.

[01:28:32] 威廉·格林:让我感到有趣的是,你早期的客户之一是约翰·坦普顿爵士,你过去提到过,在关键时刻飞到巴哈马群岛去见他,以及他的首席投资官马克·霍洛韦斯卡。我在书里也写了关于约翰爵士的事,因为大约 25、26 年前,我去巴哈马群岛采访过他,跟他待了一整天。

[01:28:32] William Green: It’s interesting to me that one of your clients early on was Sir John Templeton and you’ve talked in the past about going off to the Bahamas to life at key to see him and Mark Holoweska, his chief investment officer. And I write in my book about Sir John because I went off and interviewed him in the Bahamas and spent a day with him 25, 26 years ago.

[01:28:52] 威廉·格林:某种程度上,你似乎重新演绎了他的生活——你跑到毛里求斯,远离尘嚣,独自思考。你能谈谈吗,我这样想对不对——坦普顿是不是像早年那部电影影响你一样,也影响了你,让你觉得还有另一条路可走。另外,置身事外、不随大流,远离华尔街和伦敦金融城,这种独立姿态给你带来了哪些好处?

[01:28:52] William Green: And in some ways, You seem to have kind of recreated his life where you’ve gone off to Mauritius and you’re sort of away from the madding crowd thinking for yourself can you talk about in some way that, whether I’m a I’m right in thinking that Templeton somehow influence you maybe in the same way that movie early on influence you and you thought there’s another way to do this. And also how it’s kind of been an advantage to you to set yourself up in this very independent, non-tribal way far away from Wall Street and the City of London.

[01:29:25] 特里·史密斯:很多。实际上,我在很多方面的模仿可能超出你的想象,因为他——你大概也知道——过去每天都会在海里走一走。

[01:29:25] Terry Smith: A lot. I actually emulate Tim Wooden in more ways than you might think, because he, as you probably know, used to walk in the sea every day.

[01:29:31] 特里·史密斯:是的。我只要有机会就去礁石那儿游个来回,至少一周两三次吧。同事们说,哦,那挺有意思的,你状态不错。说来也怪,游泳的时候要是心里有别的事,我确实会琢磨琢磨。挺奇怪的,对吧?我只是在重复他当年在巴哈马做过的那种活动,但没错,看到那样的人在工作,确实影响了我。

[01:29:31] Terry Smith: Yeah. I go for a swim out to the reef and back whenever I can, which is, you know, two or three times a week at least. And my colleagues say, Oh, that’s interesting. You’re doing well. And I do weirdly if there’s something else going on when I’m doing it, I do think about it. It’s strange, isn’t it? I just doing an activity similar to what he did in in the Bahamas, but yeah, it definitely did influence me to see somebody like that at work.

[01:29:54] 特里·史密斯:我一直记得很早以前,他谈到如何应对或不应对事件时说的。你知道,我的意思是,显然在互联网出现之前,他说,你懂的,报纸晚一天才到。我拿到《华尔街日报》是它出版后的第二天。所以等到问题出现时,再慌已经来不及了。

[01:29:54] Terry Smith: And I always remember very early on when he talked about how to react or not to events, he said. You know, I mean, obviously between way pre internet, you know, he said, you know, the papers alive arrive a day later. I get the Wall Street Journal the day after it’s published. So by the time there’s a problem, it’s too late to panic.

[01:30:11] 特里·史密斯:他当时在讲一个重要的观点,用一件小事来说明。我们经常在日常简报里互相写东西,然后回头看一段时间——有时只是几周,有时几个月——然后说,要是有人那天睡着了,今天才醒来,中间发生了那么多事:选举、战争、疫情,乱七八糟的,好事坏事都有。

[01:30:11] Terry Smith: And he was making an important point, you know, in a trivial way about that, you know, the events. We often write up in our daily news run ups, we write to each other and we look back over periods of time, sometimes only a few weeks, sometimes a few months and so on and say, if somebody had gone to sleep on that day and woken up on today and we’ve had all these events in the middle that happened where, you know, terrible, great things have happened in terms of elections or wars or pandemics and so on.

[01:30:37] 特里·史密斯:但市场点位跟原来一样,要是他们不看中间那些事,我猜他们会得出什么结论?啥也没发生。那是不是说,中间那些事其实都没那么要紧?因为大多数时候答案是:对,不要紧。我觉得他和巴菲特——虽然我从没见过巴菲特——从他解释的方式来看,这个观点很有价值。也有其他人这么想,我不是说只有他们俩这么干,我可不想随大流。

[01:30:37] Terry Smith: Since the market is at the same level, if they didn’t look at any of the intervening events, I wonder what they would conclude. Nothing’s happening. So, was anything that happened terribly important then? Because mostly the answer is no. No, it’s not. And I think he and Buffett, although I’ve never met Buffett and so on from the way that he’s explained it, it is valuable and there’ve been other people, I think they’re not the only people who’ve done the, you know, I don’t want to be in the swim.

[01:31:01] 特里·史密斯:我跟业内认识的人聊过,他们有的在伦敦,有的在纽约。我常说,这些人好多得装个 GPS 才能走出西一区或 SW1 邮编区。我真不知道他们怎么干的。我问他们,你们为啥待在那儿?他们说,我希望能跟见到的公司保持联系。

[01:31:01] Terry Smith: I talked to people who I know in the industry who operate from London or New York. I mean, I always say a lot of these guys need a GPS to get outside at West One or SW1. I mean, I don’t know how you do it. Right. And I say to them, why are you there? And they go, well, I like to stay in touch with the companies I see.

[01:31:16] 特里·史密斯:你是政府投资组合的投资者,对吧?我说,对,我也是。我说,他们在辛辛那提,对吧?我也去过。现实是,他们喜欢能跟同行交流,不管是券商还是其他基金经理,喜欢约个午饭、喝一杯、聊聊天,互相交换一下各自在做什么。

[01:31:16] Terry Smith: You’re an investor in Portfolio Government, right? I said, yeah, so am I. I said, they’re in Cincinnati. Right? And I went as well. And the reality is It’s scratching and they like to be able to go and talk to other people doing what they’re doing, whether they’re brokers or other managers, and they like to be able to meet them for lunch and meet them for drinks and pick up, and they like to compare notes on what they’re all doing.

[01:31:39] 特里·史密斯:现实是,他们不太想跟同行差得太远,这也没啥不对。凯恩斯有句老话:职业生涯里最糟糕的事,就是与众不同。就算你做得成功,人们还是看不惯。

[01:31:39] Terry Smith: And the reality is they don’t really want to stand out from the pack too much, which is fine. I mean, that’s, there’s the old John Maynard Keynes quote there, that the worst thing you can have from your career is to differ from the norm. Even if you’re successful, it’s still anathema to people.

[01:31:53] 特里·史密斯:他们主要不想离开大部队太远。而你要是真想长期投资,待在那儿一点好处没有,真的没好处。

[01:31:53] Terry Smith: And that they mainly don’t want to get that far out from the norm. And if you’re trying to invest for the real long term, being in that is unhelpful, really unhelpful.

[01:32:04] 威廉·格林:那你在那里怎么安排生活方式和生态,让自己能用这种真正长期、有耐心、独立自主的方式运作,而且在一个越来越短视的世界里,能顶住想短期业绩的压力?

[01:32:04] William Green: How do you actually structure your Lifestyle and your ecosystem there so that you’re able to operate in this very long term, patient, independent, spirited way and sort of resist, you know, even the pressure to think about short term results and stuff in an increasingly short term world.

[01:32:24] 特里·史密斯:我们不跟任何券商说话,一个都不。我们不要券商的任何研究报告,不跟他们讲话。我们自己研究。为什么?拳击手靠比赛拿钱,所以他们喜欢打比赛。律师靠打官司挣钱,所以他们喜欢接案子打官司。券商靠交易赚佣金。

[01:32:24] Terry Smith: We don’t speak to any brokers. Not one. We don’t take any research from brokers. We don’t speak to them. We do it ourselves. So we’ve got why? Well, you know, boxers are paid to fight, so they like to have fights. Lawyers are paid to have disputes, so they like to have disputes and put on them. Brokers are paid on transactions.

[01:32:41] 特里·史密斯:你猜他们喜欢干啥?我们自己就当过券商。我是券商出身,对不对?吉莉安也是券商。我们干过这行,知道里面怎么回事,对吧?我们一个都不搭理。我们不要他们的任何研究报告。每天有一大堆乱七八糟的东西涌进来,问能不能提供服务,答案是不。

[01:32:41] Terry Smith: Guess what they like to do? We were brokers. I’m a broker, right? Gillian was a broker. We’ve done this job. We know what’s involved, right? We don’t speak to any of them. We don’t take any research from them. You know, I get a small tsunami of stuff that comes through asking whether people can give me a service, and the answer is no.

[01:32:58] 特里·史密斯:所以我们什么也不要,跟那些完全隔绝。我处在不同时区也有帮助。一天开头四个小时,毛里求斯这边除了我这儿十几个醒着的同事,没别人。所以我一天里有相当大一段工夫,可以安静琢磨前一天读的东西、吸收的东西,想想有没有什么需要处理的、需要说的、需要问的,完全没有外人打进来的干扰,你明白吧?

[01:32:58] Terry Smith: So we don’t take any of that. We’re completely cut off from that. The fact that I’m in a different time zone helps as well. I mean, for the first four hours of the day, I don’t have anyone outside Mauritius like, I’ve got some, I’ve got a dozen colleagues here. Who are awake, so I’ve got quite a large part of the day where I can mull over what I’ve read and what I’ve taken in the previous day and think if there’s anything that I need to do about it or say about it or ask about it without any incoming whatsoever from people, you know?

[01:33:26] 特里·史密斯:所以这确实管用。还有,说到华尔街——我跟你聊完之后就关掉不看了,也许会瞄一眼,但然后就关了。除非真出了大事——比如微软破产——你给我打电话,除此之外,别来烦我。所以,远离市场确实有帮助。关于毛里求斯,还有一点,我觉得人们老说全球化,但住在世界的另一头,可能挺重要。

[01:33:26] Terry Smith: And so that, that really does sort of, and also with regard to Wall Street, you know, I’m going to switch off looking at things after I’ve been speaking to you, I’ll go on and have a look there, but I’ll switch off and I, unless there’s something really big, something, you know, Microsoft goes bust, give me a call, but, you know, outside of that, don’t bother, you know, and so, you know, the remoteness does help the other thing about Mauritius in particular is, I think people talk about the world, And living in another part of it can be quite important, I think.

[01:33:52] 特里·史密斯:我住在一个离非洲海岸约 800 公里的岛上,人口以印度裔为主。你光看法定假日就知道毛里求斯是怎么回事了:基督徒一年两天假,印度教徒一年两天,维吾尔人一年两天,泰米尔人一年两天,穆斯林一年两天,华人一年两天。

[01:33:52] Terry Smith: You know, I’m living in an island that’s about 800 kilometers off the coast of Africa which has got a majority Indian population. And you can tell almost everything you need to know about Mauritius from the national holiday system. There are two days a year for Christians, two days a year for Hindus, two days a year for Uyghurs, two days a year for Tamils, two days a year for Muslims, two days a year for the Chinese.

[01:34:12] 特里·史密斯:再加上国庆日和废除奴隶制纪念日。换句话说,人们老说多元化社会,这就是个多元化社会,对吧?街上的人要是不认识你,会先跟你说法语——如果你是白人;如果你是黑人,就说克里奥尔语,对不对?那是这边最通用的语言。这边飞中国和印度的转机航班很方便,跟迪拜在同一时区。慢慢地,通过各种方式,一种看世界的不同视角就会进入你的意识——我觉得,你要是住在别的地方,就会有这种感觉。

[01:34:12] Terry Smith: Plus National Day and the abolition of slavery. In other words, it’s a people talk about diverse societies. It’s a diverse society, you know? People in the street, if they don’t know who you are, will speak to you in French, first of all. If you’re white, and if you’re black in Creole, right? And those are the commoner languages here and they’re pretty good connecting flights into China and India, and we’re in the same time zone as Dubai and gradually, by various means, a different perspective on the world begins to enter your consciousness, I think, if you live somewhere else, you know?

[01:34:44] 威廉·格林:所以你把自己放在一个非常自由、非常独立的位置上。这条路可真长,我是说字面意义上的长——离伦敦一万公里。但我是说,某种程度上,你从小想挤进那个圈子——上私立学校,然后去梅菲尔做对冲基金——这些经历反倒让你用一种很不寻常的方式走自己的路。

[01:34:44] William Green: So you’ve set yourself up in a very in a very free and independent way. I mean, it’s been a long journey from, I mean literally a long journey right ten thousand kilometers away from London but I mean you in a way the fact that you want part of the in crowd that you want to growing up you know going to park schools and then going to work in Mayfair to hedge fund and stuff has enabled you to kind of chart your own course in a very unusual way.

[01:35:13] 特里·史密斯:对,我觉得是这样。绝对没错。不过咱们也别排除别的因素——运气也需要,对吧?但确实,我一路走来也有几位导师,我提过其中几个,大概两三位、三四位吧。

[01:35:13] Terry Smith: Yeah, I think it has. Yeah, absolutely right. And look, let’s not rule out other things, luck as well. You need luck, right? But yeah, I also, I had some mentors along the way, you know, I’ve mentioned a couple of them and probably two or three, four mentors along the way.

[01:35:27] 特里·史密斯:人们问我职业规划、该干什么,他们都是想搞最新金融科技创业什么的,我总说:去找一家能给你培训的机构上班,对吧?把他们提供的东西都学到手,如果可能的话,找个导师。找个人教你这一行怎么运作,让你获得本来得不到的经验。有时候这个过程挺痛苦的。

[01:35:27] Terry Smith: When people ask me about careers and what to do, and they’re all, you know, they want to set up the latest FinTech and all that, I always say, get a job with an organization that will provide you with training, right? Take everything that they offer, and if you can, find a mentor. Somebody who will teach you how this works and in doing so give you experience that you otherwise won’t get, you know, and sometimes it’s quite painful.

[01:35:50] 特里·史密斯:有人带不一定总是愉快的事。你也会碰上难相处的。我一直记得在分行工作的时候,我们每天要对账,让分行自己有个资产负债平衡表,贷款、存款什么的都要平衡。我们那时候人手紧缺。

[01:35:50] Terry Smith: I mean, being mentored is not always a positive experience. You have difficult ones as well. I always remember when I was working in branch banking and we used to have to balance the accounts so that the branch itself has a balance sheet for its operations, you know, in terms of loans and deposits and everything like that and capitalists, you know, we’re operating on the supply.

[01:36:09] 特里·史密斯:你得把那些账本里每一笔账都做平。我记得有一本账怎么也平不了,当时我在参加毕业生培训,支行经理助理把账本从我手里拿过去说,行了,知道了。他进了自己办公室,一个小时后回来说,我平好了,而且我没上过大学。

[01:36:09] Terry Smith: And you used to have to balance those and all the individual accounts that are the ledgers that went into it. And I remember the not being able to balance one of the ledgers and when I was a graduate training and the manager’s assistant took it off me and said, yeah, okay. Went into his office and came back an hour later and went, I balanced it and I didn’t go to university.

[01:36:26] 特里·史密斯:有时候确实需要有人告诉你:你能行,你该做得比这更好。不是所有人都活在表扬里——整个世界不是靠正面强化运转的。偶尔得有人跟你说一句:你做错了。

[01:36:26] Terry Smith: You do need people from time to tell you, you can do, you should be doing better than this. It’s not all people think, you know, the whole world of positive reinforcement. Once in a while, someone needs to tell you, you got it wrong.

[01:36:37] 威廉·格林:对,这是个很有意思的平衡,对吧?因为某些方面,我看你的人生,会觉得:对,你是个强硬、不服输的人。同时你显然又是个讨人喜欢、有魅力、爱交际的人,而且有人跟你共事几十年了。但与此同时,你显然又是个紧张、强硬、有点好斗、爱抬杠的人。

[01:36:37] William Green: Yeah, it’s an interesting balance, right? Because in some ways, when I look at your life, I think, you know, yeah you’re this, this tough sort of indomitable guy and in some ways there is a, you know, I mean, you’re obviously a very likable and charming guy and gregarious and you’ve had people who’ve worked for you for or with you for a very long time for decades, but at the same time, you’re clearly an intense and tough and slightly combative scrappy guy.

[01:37:02] 威廉·格林:我想知道,这种性格在生意和投资之外的生活里怎么运作。我观察那么多投资大师——这是我在节目里经常引用的一件事——查理·芒格跟我说,他读我书的时候最触动他的,是那么多人最后离婚或分居了。

[01:37:02] William Green: And I’m wondering how that works in the rest of life out of business and investing, because I look at so many of the great investors, I mean, this is one of the things I often quote on this show, Charlie Munger said to me that what struck him when he read my book was just how many of them ended up divorced or separated.

[01:37:20] 威廉·格林:我想,当你回头看自己的一生——显然你离过婚,生活里有不少争执——你怎么关掉在工作中让你非常成功的那股劲儿,然后回到生活里,面对妻子、女友、孩子,不让同一种心态把所有事都吞掉?

[01:37:20] William Green: And I wonder, like, when you look back on your life, and obviously you know, you got divorced, you’ve had contentious relationships in the life. In your life, how do you turn off the intensity that makes you very successful in work so that then you can come back into dealing with a wife or a girlfriend or kids or whatever and actually not have that same mentality kind of overrun everything.

[01:37:45] 特里·史密斯:我觉得这方面我倒没什么问题,我的问题不在于将来怎么过,跟做生意的思路是不是一码事。这两件事我看得很开,能分开对待,用不同的方式去处理。真正麻烦的是,一旦碰上特别紧张的局面,不管你脑子里怎么想——不行,现在是家庭时间,我得去做饭,或者给孩子洗澡,或者干点别的什么——你未必真能把这些事从脑子里赶走。

[01:37:45] Terry Smith: I don’t think if I’ve got a problem in that regard, I don’t think my problem is approaching. The remainder of my life with the same approach that I approach business. I think I am able to see the two things quite separately and approach them differently. I think what is difficult, however, is when you get into situations which are very intense, no matter how much you think, well, no, this is home life and I’m going to cook dinner or your bath the baby or whatever you’re going to do.

[01:38:10] 特里·史密斯:所以,你能不能好好投入、睡个好觉,这不是你光靠想就能做到的。有时候那事就是缠着你,我觉得这样挺成问题的。不是说你把家里每个人都当同事看,想知道他们的业绩数字,想拉他们一起搞什么绩效考核——不是这个意思。

[01:38:10] Terry Smith: You may not still be able to get that out of your head. So, you know, whether or not you can engage properly, sleep properly is not something that you can just do by thinking about it, you know. It does stay with you sometimes, and I think that can be problematic. You know, it’s not whether you are you’re treating everybody like they’re in work and you want to see their, They’re numbers and you want to, you know, get them to engage in PPP or that’s not it.

[01:38:36] 特里·史密斯:没那么简单,可也真就这么简单——你要是刚经历了一段高度紧张的日子,就是很难把它关在门外。它就在你身体里,所以你不管在干什么,哪怕是最简单的事,比如睡觉,也可能干不好。脑子里有件事一直转,转个不停,那会儿你身边的人跟你待着大概也不舒服。另外还有一点,我觉得如果你是自己做生意的人,经营公司也好,包括自己的公司也好,干得投入、干得出色,各方面都做得不错——

[01:38:36] Terry Smith: I don’t think it’s as simple as that. It’s just as simple as if you’ve had an intense time, it can be difficult to switch it off. In, in you and therefore whatever it is you’re doing, you may not perform very well in relation to it to the simplest level of sleeping, for example, or something like that, you know, you’ve got something running through your mind, it may keep running through your mind and, you know, you may not be very comfortable to be with at that time and that’s probably, the other thing is, I think, if you do things like running your own business and you do, you know, run businesses, including your own business and you do it, Intensely and successfully and all that kind of thing.

[01:39:10] 特里·史密斯:陪在你身边的人就得接受一条,或者不接受:你会不惜一切代价把事做成。有些人接受不了这个。他们想成为你世界的中心。但你说,我总不能时刻都在你身边吧,我这边还有一堆事要干。也许你也有自己的事,也许你没有。

[01:39:10] Terry Smith: One of the things that people who are with you have to buy into or not is you will do whatever it takes. And some people can’t buy that. They want to be the center of your world. And you say, well, you can’t always be there. I’ve got this thing over here that I do. And maybe you’ve got things that you do, or maybe you haven’t.

[01:39:26] 特里·史密斯:我不知道。但有时候我就是说,不行,我现在就得去干这个。他们说,那可不太好,我本来挺想去做那件事的。你想去就去呗,钱我出,但这边的事我现在必须去办。我就是觉得必须去,因为非办不可,对吧?有些人就觉得挺难接受的,你明白吧?

[01:39:26] Terry Smith: I don’t know. But there are times where I go, no, I’m going to go and do that now. And they go, well, that’s not very good because I’d really like to go and do this. You go and do it. I’ll pay, you’ve got to, but I’m going over here to do this right now. I’ve just, you know, I feel I’ve got to do it because it’s required. Right? And some people find that quite difficult to accept, you know?

[01:39:44] 威廉·格林:你觉得你身上那股凶猛劲儿、那股拼劲和专注力,是从哪儿来的?纯粹是好胜心吗?有点像当拳手、当拳击手那种感觉?还是说,我是说,它到底从哪儿来的?

[01:39:44] William Green: Where do you think that ferocity and intensity of drive and focus comes from for you? Is it just competitive? Is it kind of a bit like being a fighter, being a boxer? Or, I mean, where does it come from for you?

[01:39:57] 特里·史密斯:我觉得是好几样东西凑出来的。一个是在很糟糕的环境里长大,你知道吧?当然你可以说,条件很差的人多了去了,不是个个都这样。是,可他们当中又有几个真能逃出来?我觉得主要还是这个。你想想,要是你从小家里穷得叮当响,住的地方天气恶劣、环境糟透了,还乱得很,三天两头有暴力,那大概确实会在你骨子里烧出一股狠劲儿。

[01:39:57] Terry Smith: I think it comes from a balance of things. I mean, one is growing up in very bad circumstances, you know? I think But you could say, well, there’s lots of people who are in very bad circumstances, and not like that. Yeah, but how many of them escape, as it were? And I think it mainly comes from that. You know, if you were, you know, you’re in very poor circumstances in, you know, bad weather conditions and living in a terrible place, and it’s quite violent, one thing or another, it probably does breathe within you a determination.

[01:40:22] 特里·史密斯:这种劲儿,你很难跟别人讲明白,真的很难跟人说得清。我觉得就是这么回事。你知道,我去毛里求斯看那些孩子,我们给他们盖了拳击馆。他们让一个姑娘来跟我打交道——他们知道我对这种事有点心软。

[01:40:22] Terry Smith: That’s otherwise difficult to encapsulate with people, you know, very difficult to encapsulate with people. And I think that’s it. You know, it’s you know, when I went to see the kids in Mauritius, who we set up the boxing gym for, and it was, you know, the girl that they got me involved in, they people know I’m a bit of a sucker at these things.

[01:40:40] 特里·史密斯:那姑娘赢过几场比赛,拿了些奖杯什么的。可她妈是妓女,对吧?我意思是,她住的是棚屋,就这样。他们知道我就吃这一套。反正我去看了她,也去看了那个拳馆,看到那儿的环境,他们说,哎呀,挺惨的吧?

[01:40:40] Terry Smith: She was, she won some fights and got a few trophies and so on. But the mother was a prostitute, right? I mean, she was living in a shack and so on, and they know that I’m like that. But anyway, I went to see her, and I went to see the club, and I saw the circumstances, and they said, oh, it’s terrible, isn’t it?

[01:40:55] 特里·史密斯:我说,是,我来帮忙。对,我来帮。我说我跟你们说件事:你们要是找世界冠军,冠军就是从这种拳馆里打出来的。从那种带空调、带饮水机的拳馆里出不来,对吧?冠军出自那种——说白了,地上摆着痰盂、大家往里吐痰的拳馆,冠军就出在那儿,对吧?那底下是真刀真枪的苦,那种地方会在人灵魂里炼出一块铁来。我是这么想的,事实也是这样。

[01:40:55] Terry Smith: I said, yeah, I’m going to help. Yeah, I’m going to help. I said, let me tell you something. I said, If you’re looking for world champions, they come out of gyms like that. They don’t come out of air conditioned gyms, right, with drinking fountains, right? They come out of gyms where, you know, basically you know, there’s buckets that people spit into, and that’s where they come from, right? Real, you know, real grit down there. That forms some kind of iron in the soul, I think and it does.

[01:41:20] 威廉·格林:是啊,那你怎么看回馈社会、分享、拉别人一把这一整摊事?因为我昨天去看我母亲——她在伦敦——我说我要去采访一个人,跟她说了你的事,她说:我可不赞成他。我问为什么,她说:他赚那么多钱,税又不交够,还一大堆花里胡哨的车,好几百辆。

[01:41:20] William Green: Yeah how do you think about this whole issue of giving back and sharing and lifting up other people because I was going to my mother yesterday and I said I’m going to she’s in London I said I’m going to interview this guy and I told her about you and she said I disapprove of him and I said why and she said you know he makes too much money doesn’t pay enough tax doesn’t you know it’s too many flashy cars couple hundred cars.

[01:41:43] 威廉·格林:她说:他怎么不多出点力解决社会问题?我跟她说,那我问问他,你怎么看这事?

[01:41:43] William Green: And she’s like, why isn’t he doing more to solve society’s problems? And I said to her, I’ll ask him, like, how do you think about that?

[01:41:51] 特里·史密斯:首先我得说,你母亲——批评一个男人的母亲是危险的,这纯属找抽。她不了解我,她也不知道我交多少税。这话我说得够客气了。

[01:41:51] Terry Smith: Well, first of all, I’d like to say that your mother obviously, criticizing a man’s mother is dangerous torture. She doesn’t know her. She doesn’t know how much tax I pay with the greatest of respect.

[01:41:59] 威廉·格林:不会,我回头介绍你认识我母亲。你会发现,她跟你一样,难缠得很。

[01:41:59] William Green: No, I’ll introduce you to my mother. You’ll find she, she’s about as formidable as you are.

[01:42:04] 特里·史密斯:那好极了。对,我们前阵子招了个人,他跟我讲过他母亲的事,我说我想雇你妈。哦,是吧。对,我觉得她听起来就是我们理想中的员工。把她请来吧。

[01:42:04] Terry Smith: Great. Yeah, I, we recruited somebody a while back who told me a story about his mother and I said I want to hire your mother. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I think she sounds like a perfect employee for us. Let’s get it.

[01:42:17] 特里·史密斯:所以——你问这个问得挺巧,因为这多少能回答你母亲的问题。我是这么看的:慈善也好,回馈也好,不管做什么,我有几条很硬的原则。第一,要私下做;第二,得花自己的钱。

[01:42:17] Terry Smith: And so, I, it’s funny you should ask that because it will at least maybe in part answer your mother’s question which is to say that. I believe that philanthropy, or giving back, or whatever you do, there are a number of things that I’m very strongly guided on by. It should be private, and it should be with your own money.

[01:42:35] 特里·史密斯:我特别反感那帮搞花里胡哨大场面的人,你知道,“为孩子搞对冲基金”那一套——办个大活动,请首相来,大家举牌竞拍,一百万英镑买双袜子,也不知道是什么鬼东西,然后把钱全捐出去——算了吧。那种事的真相是:第一,你这么做是因为它让你看起来体面,做的时候自我感觉良好。

[01:42:35] Terry Smith: I am anti to the point of disparagement with the people who go in for glitzy events you know, absolute return for kids kind of thing, and we’ll have a big event, and we’ll invite the Prime Minister, and we’ll all bid, you know, a million pounds for a pair of socks or whatever the hell it is, and we’ll give all the money to get No, the reality of that is, first of all, you’re doing it because it makes you look good and you feel good doing it.

[01:42:55] 特里·史密斯:第二,在那个圈子里,经常有人跑来找我说:哎,我有个慈善项目,我想这样那样,你可以参与一下、帮我做点什么。我说,那这么着,我把钱给你,然后你拿去做场面、搞这套那些东西。

[01:42:55] Terry Smith: And the second thing about it is you’re quite often in those circles, and there are a number of people who come to me and go, well, I’ve got this charity and I want this, and you could take part and do that for me, and I go, so what’s going to happen here is I’m going to give you the money, and then you’re going to go up front it up and do all this and so on.

[01:43:08] 特里·史密斯:这种人在一定程度上我还必须得留着,因为我自己绝不会去运营这些项目,我去干肯定干得一团糟,对吧?所以,当然,你知道。但说穿了,你真正想说的是:我能花钱让你去出风头、去领功吗?某些情况下就是这么回事。而且我觉得很多搞慈善筹款的人,首先就不守我那条“私下做”的原则。

[01:43:08] Terry Smith: And there’s a certain degree to which I have to have people like that, because I’m not going to run any of these things, because I’d be insanely bad at it, right? So, yeah, of course, you know. But it’s guys, what you’re really saying is, can I pay for you to go and get credit? That’s what, in some cases, and a lot of people who raise money for charity, I think, first of all, they don’t keep to my private rule.

[01:43:25] 特里·史密斯:其次,他们也不守“花自己的钱”这条。我大体上是两条都守的。所以,回到你母亲的话题上,她不知道我交多少税,也不知道我拿钱干什么。但我确实捐了很多钱,按我个人的标准看是相当大的数目。给的方面很广,不只是给孩子盖拳击馆,还有很多别的事。

[01:43:25] Terry Smith: And secondly, they don’t keep to the, it should be your own money rule. I try, by and large, to keep to both rules. And so, again, going back to your mother, she doesn’t know what tax I pay and she doesn’t know what I do with my money. But I do give what I would personally regard as very significant sums of money. To a wide range of things, not just boxing gyms for kids, but a lot of other things as well.

[01:43:47] 威廉·格林:但你怎么划定这个边界呢?因为我猜这里面有某种东西,跟给人机会有关?作为一个从债务里爬出来的人,这个对你应该有共鸣。你觉得什么样算帮人帮到点子上?

[01:43:47] William Green: But how do you think of the parameters like, because I’m assuming that there’s something about helping to give people opportunity? That resonates for you as someone who managed to get out of debt. Like, how do you think about a good way to help people?

[01:44:01] 特里·史密斯:这正好是我接下来要说的点。私下做、花自己的钱、尽量用实际的方式去帮,帮的内容就是你说的那个——机会,以及抓住机会的能力。我新娶了个太太,我很高兴地说,她有个继子。所以我如今也有个继子,我们把他弄到英国上学了。

[01:44:01] Terry Smith: Well, that was another point I was going to do. Private, with your own money, and in practical ways, wherever possible, that affects them in the way that you’ve just touched upon, which is opportunity and the ability to grasp it. I have a new wife, I’m pleased to say, and she has a stepson. I have a stepson as a result, and we’ve got him into school in the UK.

[01:44:22] 特里·史密斯:我跟他说,你想怎么着?留在公立学校,基本上就是被当作底层来培养,将来当个加油站加油工、园丁或者保安。或者他要能考过入学试,我们就送他去英国,当然,得他考得上。我们把他送去了英国。

[01:44:22] Terry Smith: And we, I said, look, what do you want to do here? I can stay in government school and basically be trained in the underclass here to be a gas pump attendant or a gardener or a security man. Or we could send him to the UK if he passes admission, obviously, and so on. And we send him to the UK.

[01:44:37] 特里·史密斯:那就好。而且他看起来混得不错,这是好事。所以我现在的计划是,从毛里求斯接两个孩子到学校来,一个女孩一个男孩,都是克里奥尔人,这样一来,等学校满了,每年至少能有两个这样的孩子在校就读。你肯定知道这所学校,虽然你没上过伊顿公学,但英国的教育费用可不便宜,等我们把学费、新的增值税、校服、装备和机票都算进去,那可就是一笔不小的开支了。

[01:44:37] Terry Smith: That’s good. And he seems to be prospering, which is good. So what I’ve now moved on to is a scheme to take two Creole children, her and him, from Mauritius, into the school, so that once we’ve got it full, we will have at least two children in every year at that school. Now, you know, you, I’m sure you’re aware of the school, haven’t been to Eton, there’s the price of schooling in the UK, but by the time we take the fees, the new VAT the uniform, the equipment, and the flights into account, we’re getting into some reasonable dough there basically.

[01:45:03] 特里·史密斯:但我真正喜欢这件事的地方在于,它能实实在在地帮那些孩子摆脱原来的处境,给他们一个机会。而我认为最关键的在于,我希望他们中的一些人会想着回到毛里求斯,去改变整个社区。

[01:45:03] Terry Smith: But the thing I really like about it is it will be of practical help to lift those, some of those group of children out of their background to give them an opportunity. And this is the really important part, I think, some of them, I hope, will think of coming back to Mauritius to change the community in general.

[01:45:20] 特里·史密斯:因为他们在政府或者私营部门有能力担任重要职位,等等。这种事儿我确实喜欢,非常喜欢,因为我能看到它能带来的实实在在的后果。不过,我可不想让他们拿我的名字去命名什么“特里·史密斯楼”。

[01:45:20] Terry Smith: By their, by the fact that they have the ability to hold down important roles in government or the private sector and so on. And that’s the sort of thing that really, I like. Enjoy that a lot, because I can see the practical consequences of doing it. Now, I don’t want them to name the Terry Smith wing after me.

[01:45:36] 威廉·格林:是啊。

[01:45:36] William Green: Yeah.

[01:45:37] 特里·史密斯:我根本不需要把这事儿到处讲。实际上,要让这些事儿落地,往往得靠政府那边出点力,让学校配合响应。我跟部长们说,你们可以把名字挂上去。你们可以说这是你们提出的伟大倡议。

[01:45:37] Terry Smith: I don’t need to tell the story at all, in fact. In fact, in terms of getting these things to work, quite often does require some sort of input from the government to get schools to respond here and do that sort of thing. I say to the ministers, you can put your name on it. You can say this great initiative by me.

[01:45:51] 特里·史密斯:你们是政客,你们就喜欢这个,对吧?把名字挂上去,行不行?我可不想留名。所以你母亲永远不会读到,几乎永远不会读到我在做这件事。她可能会读到毛里求斯工党主席想出了什么绝妙计划,把克里奥尔孩子送进英国公立学校。

[01:45:51] Terry Smith: You’re a politician, you love this, right? Put your name on it, right? I don’t want my name on it. So your mother’s never going to be read, almost never going to be reading about me doing this. She might read that the president of the Labor Party of Mauritius has come up with this wonderful scheme to execute Creole children into UK public schools.

[01:46:06] 威廉·格林:是啊,有个鞭策我们的母亲是好事。她会听我的节目,然后说,嗯,那期我不太喜欢,那个家伙倒挺棒的,你懂的。所以父母要求严格是好事。

[01:46:06] William Green: Yeah, it’s good to have a mother who holds us all to account. She’ll listen to my episode and she’ll say, yeah, I didn’t like that one as much as some, you know, that guy was great or, you know, so having exacting parents is helpful.

[01:46:20] 特里·史密斯:你母亲,除了对我的私事不太了解之外——这倒可以理解,但她也许该先做点功课再开口——我觉得她有点接近我之前说的那种英国人对成功的敌意了。

[01:46:20] Terry Smith: Your mother, apart from her lack of knowledge of my personal affairs, which is understandable but she should perhaps try and obtain some before, it is, I think she’s veering a little close to that UK dislike of success that I was talking about.

[01:46:32] 威廉·格林:这倒是个有趣的问题。对,我是说,跟我说说。你从小家境不好,后来这些年变得非常富有,买了几百辆漂亮的车啊、游艇啊之类的。其实我在书的结语里写过这个,我的那本《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》,当时我跟很多中了人生大奖、发了大财的人聊过。

[01:46:32] William Green: It’s an interesting question. That, yeah, I mean, tell me about. You know having grown up without money and then over the years you become very wealthy and you know you bought a couple hundred beautiful cars and the like and a yacht and stuff and a lot of the very, I mean I wrote about this in the epilogue of my book, Richer Wiser Happier, where I talked to a lot of people who have won the, you know, hit the jackpot financially.

[01:46:56] 威廉·格林:我的感觉是,怎么说呢,玩具和小玩意儿确实挺不错,但也仅此而已。从某种意义上说,钱真正的礼物不在于——再说一遍,比那更糟,怎么个糟法?

[01:46:56] William Green: And my sense is that, you know, as I would put it, the toys and baubles are kind of nice, but they only go so far. And that in some ways, the real gift of the money is that it’s not say again, worse than that in what sense.

[01:47:10] 特里·史密斯:玩具和小玩意儿其实会妨碍快乐。很多时候,拥有那类东西主要是头疼。你养了条船,就得雇船员,然后船员这边,有人辞职了,有人跟别人搞上了,有人被发现在背地里干些什么,还把船给撞到码头边上去了。

[01:47:10] Terry Smith: The toys and the baubles actually get in the way of pleasure. Quite often, you know, owning things of that sort mainly is a headache, you know, so if you’ve got a boat, you end up having a crew and then the crew, you know, somebody quits, somebody has sex with somebody else, somebody’s found out doing something here, they run it into the quayside at the dock.

[01:47:26] 特里·史密斯:所以,说真的,我得讲,一个人从这类事情里能得到的真正的快乐,在我看来并不高,对吧?那什么意思呢,我是说,就拿车来说吧。我觉得买贵的快的车——我确实有一些又贵又快的车,这点我毫不怀疑。

[01:47:26] Terry Smith: And so, you know, really, I’ve got to say, the amount of real pleasure that one gets from doing those kind of things is not high in my view, right? So what, I mean, like, if you take the car collection, for example, I think Buying expensive and fast cars, and I’ve got some expensive and fast cars, I have no doubt about that.

[01:47:41] 特里·史密斯:但我的车种类非常多。我最早的一辆是 1903 年的,还有一批是失败之作。我特意收藏失败的车。原因在于,我觉得它们能告诉我们一些东西。比如说,为什么我们要给人做尸检?

[01:47:41] Terry Smith: But I’ve got a very wide range of cars. My earliest car is from 1903 and I’ve got a section of cars which are failures. I deliberately collect failures. And so, you know, and the reason for that is I think that they tell us things. If you, why do we have, I always say, why do we have postmortems on human beings?

[01:47:56] 特里·史密斯:不是因为医生喜欢摆弄尸体。而是因为如果我们死因可疑或难以判断,人们就得搞清楚为什么,万一有什么新型疾病或者谋杀,需要采取对策。我喜欢审视汽车,也有这个道理。

[01:47:56] Terry Smith: It isn’t just because doctors like messing around with cadavers. It’s because if we die in suspicious circumstances or difficult to determine, they might want to know why, just in case there’s a new illness or foul play and something needs to be done about it. And I’d like the idea of looking at cars.

[01:48:11] 特里·史密斯:你要是想看别的东西也行,但我偏爱那些失败的车,看看能从里面学到什么,哪怕一丁半点。我们能从这些东西里悟出什么?因为时不时看看历史上别人是怎么搞砸的,说不定有用,你说是吧?

[01:48:11] Terry Smith: You can look at other things if you wanted, but I like cars that are failures and seeing what, if anything, we can learn. What can we learn out of these things? Because it might be useful to learn something from time to time about how other people have screwed up in history, you know?

[01:48:24] 威廉·格林:这是否影响了你对特斯拉的怀疑?因为你是——我的意思是,想想那“七圣徒”,挺有意思的,对吧?你也持有其中好几家,但你说过特斯拉和英伟达过不了你的质量关,特斯拉大概永远不会过。我之前还真没把这两件事联系起来——你是个汽车专家,你收藏的失败车型和你对特斯拉的怀疑之间,是不是有什么关联?

[01:48:24] William Green: Has it informed your skepticism about Tesla? Because you’re, I mean, it’s interesting when you think of the Magnificent Seven, right? I mean you, you own a bunch of them, but you’ve said that Tesla and NVIDIA wouldn’t get through your quality parameters and the Tesla probably never will and I hadn’t really made the connection that here you are a car expert and like is there some connection between your car collection of the failures and your skepticism about Tesla?

[01:48:50] 特里·史密斯:还记得我在伦敦商学院讲的吗,好公司、坏公司那套。汽车公司全是坏公司,无一例外。每一家都是,丰田、福特、宝马、奔驰,全都一样,对吧?它们都在摧毁价值。你要是真喜欢它们,可以按 4 倍市盈率把它们全买下来,而特斯拉是 99 倍,对吧?

[01:48:50] Terry Smith: Remember my Sturm Business School, you know, good company, bad company thing. Automobile companies are all bad without any kind of exception. Every single one of them, Toyota, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, the whole lot, right? They destroy value. If you really like them, you can go and buy them all on a Pia 4 if you want, and there’s Tesla on 99 times, right?

[01:49:09] 特里·史密斯:这是个糟糕的生意。为什么糟糕?资本极其密集。你得建工厂,对吧?这很明显。而且车型开发耗费大量时间和金钱。然后问题来了。如果我投的是日常消费品,你买牙膏、猫砂或者别的什么,用完了你得再去买。

[01:49:09] Terry Smith: It’s a bad business. Why is it a bad business? It’s very capital intensive. You have to build factories, right? Fairly obvious. And models development costs a lot of time and money. And then here’s the problem. If I’m invested in consumer staples and you buy some toothpaste or cat litter or whatever you buy, When you run out, you have to go buy some more.

[01:49:27] 特里·史密斯:所以这就持续有需求,即使在经济下行时,你可能省着点用,把牙膏管多挤一挤,或者去买便宜点的猫砂、买第二品牌什么的。所以那个稍微有点波动,但问题不大。而如果你有辆车,经济不好时觉得手头紧,那就继续开旧车呗。

[01:49:27] Terry Smith: And so that keeps, even in a downturn, you might eek it out, might squeeze the tube a bit better, might go buy some cheaper cat litter, and a number two brand or, I don’t know. So that’s a little bit problematic, but it’s not big problematic, whereas, if you’ve got a car, and you feel a bit powered up in a downturn, just keep the car.

[01:49:45] 特里·史密斯:你不需要换车。我老爱引用马哈杜先生的话,他是我在毛里求斯的出租车司机,在这方面堪称典范。他开着他的丰田 Axio 载着我跑了 36 万公里。可怜的老兄去世了,现在他儿子接着开。丰田 20 年没从那辆车上赚到一分钱,对吧?

[01:49:45] Terry Smith: You don’t have to change your car. I always quote Mr. Mahadu, who is my taxi driver here in Mauritius, who is a, an exemplar of this. He drove me around in his Toyota Axio for 360,000 kilometers. The poor chap died and now his son’s driving it. Toyota haven’t made a bean off that car in 20 years, right?

[01:50:02] 特里·史密斯:而且那车还跑得很欢,我可以告诉你。我在路上老能看到他儿子开着它转悠。这生意真的很糟糕,因为这意味着它有极强的周期性。不像牙膏和猫砂,需求一旦停了,那就彻底停了,对吧?所以资本投入巨大,开发成本高昂,而需求又大起大落。

[01:50:02] Terry Smith: And it’s still going strong, I can tell you. I see it on the roads floating around with his son driving it. It’s a really bad business because what that means is that it’s hugely cyclical. Unlike toothpaste and cat litter, when the demand stops, it just stops, right? And so it’s huge capital involved, big development costs and demand, which goes up and down enormously.

[01:50:22] 特里·史密斯:然后还能扯到其他话题上,你懂的,所以这就是汽车公司。特斯拉也是一家汽车公司,那么,电池就是电动汽车的未来吗?我不知道答案,但确实有理由对它持怀疑态度——续航里程、资源消耗、报废处理等等等等,还有氢燃料电池作为替代方案,如果有相应基础设施的话。

[01:50:22] Terry Smith: And then you can get on to the other subjects involved, which is you know, so that’s car companies. And Tesla’s a car company, which is, you know, are batteries the future of electric vehicle transport? I mean, I don’t know the answer, but there’s certainly some reasons to be skeptical about it in terms of Range in terms of use of depletion of resources in terms of disposal, et cetera, et cetera, the hydrogen fuel cell as an alternative if there was any rain structure.

[01:50:46] 特里·史密斯:所以,把这些都放在一起看,我觉得马斯克先生在很多方面取得的成就是相当令人钦佩的。那家伙有精力也有胆量,这点毫无疑问。但我不确定汽车是出路。我是说,如果汽车是出路,那你为什么不直接去把所有其他车企都收编买下来呢?

[01:50:46] Terry Smith: So, look, put it all together and I just think I’m a big sort of admirer of many of Mr. Musk’s achievements in a lot of respects. That man’s got energy and balls. There’s no doubt about that. But I’m not sure cars is the way forward. I mean, if cars is the way forward, why don’t you just go and round up all the other ones and buy them?

[01:51:01] 威廉·格林:有意思。你从 1903 年开始收藏汽车,当年在卡迪夫还拿了历史学一等学位,这些确实滋养了你那种想拥有能够长久存续的公司、投那些无论好坏年景都能挺得住、都能保值的行业的感觉。我觉得你的人生里有一条挺有趣的贯穿线。

[01:51:01] William Green: It’s interesting, I mean, the fact that you’ve been collecting cars that date back to 1903, and the fact that you got a first in history all those years ago in Cardiff, like, really informs your sense of wanting to own companies that endure, owning sectors that tend to You know, persevere and be valuable through good times and bad. I mean, there’s some interesting through line there in your life.

[01:51:27] 特里·史密斯:跟你说一下,那辆 1903 年的车是奥兹莫比尔弯挡板,没有方向盘,是用舵柄转向的。它是第一款量产车。T 型福特并不是第一款量产车。

[01:51:27] Terry Smith: Well, we’ve got the 1903 is an Oldsmobile curved dash, just to let you know. It’s not got a steering wheel, it’s got a tiller that you steer it with. And it was the first mass production car. The Model T Ford was not the first mass production car.

[01:51:37] 特里·史密斯:奥兹莫比尔弯挡板才是第一款量产车。那里面有历史。T 型福特也有历史。T 型福特是一个绝妙的故事——关于一个实业家和他所取得的成就。我想我有一辆。在我看来,汽车背后的故事,大多数时候比车本身更重要。

[01:51:37] Terry Smith: It’s the Oldsmobile curved dash was the first mass production car. And there’s history involved in that. There’s history involved in the Model T Ford. The Model T Ford is a fantastic story. Of an industrialist and what he achieved. I think I’ve got one and I think it’s the story, the stories behind the cars, in my view, are more important than mostly the cars themselves.

[01:51:58] 特里·史密斯:我对这些故事很感兴趣,你知道,我对 1966 年福特 GT40 的故事很感兴趣,就是《极速车王》里那辆车。我有一辆。我很喜欢它。我记得小时候那些事,福特怎么算账的,周日去比赛,周一就卖车,还想收购法拉利,结果不但没买到法拉利,恩佐反而把公司卖给了菲亚特,还羞辱了亨利·福特。

[01:51:58] Terry Smith: I’m interested in the stories, you know, I’m interested in the Ford GT 40 from 1966 from Ford V Ferrari. And I’ve got one. And I like it. It’s a, I can remember that those episodes when I was a child of how, you know, Ford worked out, went on Sunday, sell on Monday, and tried to buy Ferrari, and not only did they not get Ferrari, but he sold out to Fiat and dissed Henry Ford.

[01:52:19] 特里·史密斯:你知道,惹恼亨利·福特确实是件糟糕的事,因为他造了一辆车把他们打败了。事实上,恩佐·法拉利靠惹恼别人,至少促成了两款伟大车型的诞生,至少两款,都是因为惹恼了人。福特 GT40 是一款,兰博基尼是另一款。

[01:52:19] Terry Smith: And you know, upsetting Henry Ford was a bad thing to have done, really, because he went and built a car that beat them. And, in fact, Enzo Ferrari managed to cause the development of at least two cars by upsetting people, at least two, by upsetting people. The Ford GT40 being one, and the Lamborghini being another.

[01:52:35] 特里·史密斯:兰博基尼先生是做拖拉机的。他现在还在做拖拉机。哦,他们是做拖拉机的。他买了一辆法拉利,结果车坏了。那车经常坏,真的。他把车开回法拉利马拉内罗工厂,说,你看这离合器有问题,那变速箱也有问题,等等。

[01:52:35] Terry Smith: Mr. Lamborghini made tractors. He still does make tractors. Oh, they make tractors. And he bought a Ferrari, which didn’t work. Like they quite often didn’t work, man. I took it back to Ferrari Maranello and said, you know, this is wrong with the clutch and that’s wrong with the gearbox and so on.

[01:52:48] 特里·史密斯:然后据说,恩佐·法拉利问他,你靠什么谋生?他说,我做拖拉机。恩佐听了特别不爽。他回去就雇了一个六人的年轻汽车工程师和设计师团队,其中年纪最大的好像才 26 岁。造出了兰博基尼 Miura,把法拉利的公路跑车打得落花流水。法拉利靠惹恼别人催生出的好车,跟他自己造出来的好车一样多。

[01:52:48] Terry Smith: And apparently, Amso Ferrari said, what do you do for a living? He said, I make tractors. And he was like, and he was so upset. He went and hired a team of six young automotive engineers and designers. The oldest of whom I think was 26. And built the Lamborghini Miura and demolished Ferrari’s road cars. Ferrari caused nearly as many good cars to be built by annoying people as he did by actually making cars.

[01:53:12] 威廉·格林:是啊,你还有像 1968 年的福特野马,对吧?就是史蒂夫·麦奎因在《警网铁金刚》里开的那辆。还有,我想你还有詹姆斯·邦德在《金手指》里开的阿斯顿·马丁 DB5。所以你这是把电影里的车都搬回家了。

[01:53:12] William Green: Yeah, you also have things like the 1968 Ford Mustang, right? Which was the car that Steve McQueen drove in Bullet. And you have, I think, the Aston Martin DB5 that James Bond drove in Goldfinger. So you’re living out the movies.

[01:53:27] 特里·史密斯:对对,我喜欢电影里的车。我想如果你问我,你收集这些车到底想干什么?其实就是想……有个人在佛罗里达州那不勒斯有个博物馆,叫 Revs 研究所。他写了本书叫《汽车考古学》,他的论点是:汽车是 20 世纪人类与之互动的最重要的物件。

[01:53:27] Terry Smith: Yeah, well, yeah, I like movie cars. I think if you said, what are you trying to do with the car collection? I mean, it’s about trying, there’s a guy he’s got a museum in Naples in Florida called the Revs Institute. And he’s got a book called the archeological automobile and his thesis. Is that the car is the single most important object with which human beings interacted in the 20th century.

[01:53:51] 特里·史密斯:这个论点不赖,我觉得他说得确实有道理。人类的进化史有太多都凝结在汽车里——福特、工业化、日本的崛起、电影、电视节目,莫尔斯探长开的捷豹,《圣徒》里的沃尔沃。汽车在我们意识里的分量非常大,而且它们能唤起很多回忆。

[01:53:51] Terry Smith: It’s not a bad thesis and I think he’s certainly got a point and I think there’s an awful lot of human development history. In cars through the multi ford and industrialization and all those sort of things the rise of Japan and the movies tv shows Morse’s jaguar the saints. Volvo. They’re part in our consciousness is enormous I think and they evoke.

[01:54:11] 特里·史密斯:对很多人来说感触很深,尤其是某个年龄段的人。你会发现人们在汽车博物馆里聊天,我跟很多在汽车博物馆里的人聊过车,他们会说,看到有家人在里面逛,有人哭出来了,就问,出什么事了?

[01:54:11] Terry Smith: Quite a lot with people, you know, and quite a lot of it, particularly of a certain age group, I think you find people talking in motor museums, and I’ve talked to a lot of people in motor museums about cars, is they’ll say, they’ll find families walking around and somebody will be in tears, and they’ll say, is there a problem?

[01:54:24] 特里·史密斯:那个人会说,我父亲以前就有一辆那样的车,你知道吗,我小时候记得。车能唤起他们内心的情感。所以我信故事,你知道。我特别喜欢一个关于福特 T 型车的故事:亨利·福特把 T 型车放上了流水线。这样一来,他把生产一辆车的时间从 12 小时缩短到了 93 分钟。

[01:54:24] Terry Smith: And I’ll go, My father had one of those, you know, I remember as a child, it evokes emotion in them. And so I’m a believer in the stories, you know, I mean, the one I like on the Model T Ford is Henry Ford with the Model T Ford put it on the production line. And in so doing, he cut the production time of a car from 12 hours to 93 minutes.

[01:54:43] 特里·史密斯:这样一来,他显然大幅降低了生产成本。然后他做了真正高明的一步:降价。换了大多数人,面对这种情况只会多赚利润。他选择了降价。这样一来,他把汽车从有钱人的玩物变成了……他发明了汽车的中产阶级市场。

[01:54:43] Terry Smith: And in doing so, he obviously cut the cost of production very significantly. Then he did the really clever bit. He cut the price. What most people would have done faced with that is just made more profit. He cut the price. In so doing, he took the car from being a placing of the money classes into something where he invented the middle class in cars, the middle class market in cars.

[01:55:05] 特里·史密斯:那时候汽车只卖给医生、银行经理、律师和牙医。他靠降价开辟了大众市场。这故事太精彩了。想想人们对他的评价,好多人把他看作强盗大亨式的工业家。

[01:55:05] Terry Smith: Cars then were sold to doctors and bank managers and lawyers and dentists. He invented the middle market by doing that. It’s just a fantastic story, I think. For a man who, going back to how people are viewed, a man who many would review as a sort of robber, baron, industrialist.

[01:55:19] 威廉·格林:是的,尼克·斯利普,你可能听说过,或者诺曼人那边,我在书里写了很多关于他的内容,经常提到他们看到的那种规模经济共享模式——先在福特身上看到,然后在好市多身上看到,再在亚马逊身上看到。

[01:55:19] William Green: Yeah, Nick sleep in case the carrier who you may have come across or from nomad who I wrote about a lot of my book Talk a lot about just seeing that scale economies shared model that they saw in Ford and then they saw it in Costco and then they saw it in Amazon.

[01:55:35] 威廉·格林:所以这个主题反复出现——克制自己、不把能赚的钱尽量装进口袋的能力。

[01:55:35] William Green: So it comes up again and again, this ability to resist, you know, pocketing as much money as you can.

[01:55:41] 特里·史密斯:我同意。我同意。

[01:55:41] Terry Smith: I agree. I agree.

[01:55:43] 威廉·格林:你作为收藏家的经历,有没有什么可以应用到投资上的?我是说,这大概是门不同的艺术,但有没有什么关于追求品质的东西是两者共通的?

[01:55:43] William Green: Is there anything you take from Your history is a collector that you can actually apply to investing like there. I mean, I assume it’s somewhat different art, but there’s something in terms of the pursuit of quality that runs through both.

[01:55:57] 特里·史密斯:特定的成长性。另外还有一点:好东西总会再出现的。你知道,每次我想买什么东西,想算了吧,我就买一辆黑色的兰博基尼 Diablo 吧,因为红色的永远等不到。你猜怎么着?你刚买完黑色的,一分钟后就来了。

[01:55:57] Terry Smith: The specific growth. There’s also the fact that most things will come around. You know, every time I’ve ever thought of buying something and I’ve thought, you know what, I’ll give in, I’ll buy a Lamborghini Diablo in black because the red one is never going to come up. Guess what happens one minute after you bought the black one?

[01:56:12] 特里·史密斯:哎呀,你看吧。还有,别相信拍卖。你知道,我参与过一些汽车拍卖,拍卖会上有人找别人登录进去,给自己的车抬价。所以你根本别信那个出价是真的。

[01:56:12] Terry Smith: Oops. See? There’s that also. Don’t trust auctions. Don’t, you know, I know from cars that I’ve been involved in at auction that people at auction put other people logged on to bid and let them bid against their car to get the price up. And so you don’t trust what a bid it is.

[01:56:30] 特里·史密斯:市场也一样。别把屏幕上看到的价格波动当成真相。价格变动的原因可能有很多。可能是有人在交易。你知道,我见过不止一次。这个周末佛罗里达州基西米就有一场拍卖,有一辆很重要的车要卖,如果我要出价的话——当然我不会——我会想,在场到底有没有人其实就是卖主本人。

[01:56:30] Terry Smith: The same with dealing with markets. Do not trust what you see on the screen in sheer price action as equaling reality. You know, there could be a lot of reasons why that price is moving. Or somebody’s dealing, you know, yeah, I’ve seen more than one example. I think there’s one coming up this weekend at Kissimmee in Florida, where there’s a very important car for sale where if I were bidding on it and I’m not, I would look at that and say, I wonder if there’s anybody else there who is in fact the vendor.

[01:56:55] 特里·史密斯:因为一旦竞价开始,有人明显确定要买,卖主可能就会安排人进来抬价。搞不好他会砸在自己手里。嗯,是也不是,因为如果他砸在自己手里,他们回头会给你打电话——如果你是最高出价者的话——说,那个人没拿出钱来,你还愿意按你的出价成交吗?

[01:56:55] Terry Smith: Because once the bidding starts and it’s clear that somebody’s committed to buying it, the vendor might use somebody to put in competing bids. Automatically, he gets stuck with his own car. Well, yes and no, because if he gets stuck with his own car, they’ll just ring you up later if you were the highest bid and say, that guy didn’t come through with the money, do you want to be good for your bid?

[01:57:13] 威廉·格林:在我放你走之前,特里,因为你已经非常慷慨地花了这么多时间,我还想问你最后一件事,关于你的英雄基思·帕克爵士,他是空军上将。你在这个世界上留下的一个非常实在的印记是:伦敦市中心特拉法加广场上现在有一座他的雕像,2010 年揭幕的,因为是你牵头搞了这场运动为他争取荣誉。给我们简单讲讲他吧,还有为什么他的故事对你触动这么深。

[01:57:13] William Green: Before I let you go, Terry, because you’ve been incredibly generous with your time, I just wanted to ask you one final thing, which is actually about Sir Keith Park, who’s this hero of yours, who is Air Chief Marshal. And one of the really tangible marks that you’ve left in the world is that there’s now a statue of him in Trafalgar Square in the heart of London that was unveiled in 2010 because you led this campaign to get him honored. Tell us just a little bit about him and why his story resonated so deeply for you.

[01:57:44] 特里·史密斯:他是新西兰人,一战时跟随澳新军团从新西兰来到前线,在加里波利作战,那场战役完全是场灾难,我想大多数人在那之后就会选择回家了。他没有。他志愿加入英国陆军,在索姆河作战。

[01:57:44] Terry Smith: He’s a New Zealander, and he came from New Zealand in World War One with the Anzac Corps who fought at Gallipoli, which of course was utterly disastrous, and most people would have gone home then, I guess. He didn’t. He volunteered for the British Army and fought in the Somme.

[01:57:56] 特里·史密斯:他从索姆河被送回国,因为他骑的马被炮弹炸了,把他甩下来,他已经不适合在陆军待了。于是他志愿加入了新组建的皇家飞行军团,驾驶布里斯托战斗机。击落敌机 18 架。相当了不起。

[01:57:56] Terry Smith: He was invalidated out from the Somme after being blown off a horse, artillery, a horse via a shell, and was just unfit for the army, so he volunteered for the newly formed Royal Flying Corps where he flew Bristol Fighters. And was credited with 18 kills. Quite good going.

[01:58:13] 特里·史密斯:然后他从皇家飞行军团转到新组建的皇家空军,赢得了休·道丁的信任,道丁是战斗机司令部司令,他有一套对付德国空军的理论。德国空军大约有 2800 架飞机,皇家空军只有大约 650 架战斗机。所以差距悬殊。

[01:58:13] Terry Smith: He then transferred from the RFC to the newly formed RAF and won the trust of Hugh Dowding, who was the head of fighter command, who had a theory on how to combat German air power. The Germans had about 2, 800 planes in the Luftwaffe, the RAF had about 650 fighter planes. So they were heavily outnumbered.

[01:58:31] 特里·史密斯:道丁明白他们不能想着打赢这场仗。当时有很多人,你可以想象,尤其是利·马洛里,就是管剑桥那边那个大队的人,主张“跟德国佬干一仗”。道丁说,我们不需要打赢这场仗,我们只需要不输就行。

[01:58:31] Terry Smith: And Dowling realized that what they needed to do was not try and win the battle. There were lots of people, as you can imagine, at that time, particularly Lee Mallory, the guy who ran that group in Cambridge, who were, let’s give Jerry a bloody nose, and he’s, we don’t need to win the battle, we just need to not lose.

[01:58:44] 特里·史密斯:这有点像投资公司,你知道,我们不需要拥有最好的公司,只要别碰烂公司就行。所以他分批投入战斗机,就像一小把一小把地撒。德国空军飞行员之间流传着一个冷笑话,轰炸机飞行员们随着战事推进总是说,哦,他们又来了,最后那十架喷火战斗机。

[01:58:44] Terry Smith: This is a bit like companies, you know, we don’t need to own the best company, we just Don’t want any bad ones. So he would feed the fighters in penny packets, if you like. And it became a standing joke with the Luftwaffe pilots, as it were, sort of gallows humor, the bomber pilots, who as the battle ground on would say, oh, here they come again, those last 10 Spitfires.

[01:59:01] 特里·史密斯:因为他们明明被告知皇家空军已经被消灭了,结果并没有。所以他们天上总还有战斗机。因为海狮行动——入侵英国的作战命令——第一项要求就是夺取制空权。因为德国人怕横渡英吉利海峡时皇家海军会出来拦截。

[01:59:01] Terry Smith: Because if they’d been told they’d wiped out, and they hadn’t. So they would always have some fighter planes in the sky. Because Operation Sea Lion, the invasion order for the invasion of Britain, the first requirement was air supremacy. Because they were terrified of the Royal, crossing the English Channel with the Royal Navy at large.

[01:59:18] 特里·史密斯:所以他们必须能从空中压制皇家海军。没有制空权就做不到。而帕克就是要让他们拿不到制空权。道丁需要一个信得过的副手来执行这个战略。那个人就是帕克。帕克一丝不苟地执行了。在战争最关键的那个夏天,从六月到十月,帕克每天做出兵力部署的决定,而事后看,这些决定几乎无法改进——再怎么想也很难做得更好了。

[01:59:18] Terry Smith: So they had to be able to neutralize the Royal Navy from the air. They couldn’t do that without air supremacy. And he was going to deny them air supremacy. Now he needed a trusted associate who would implement that strategy. And that was Park. And Park did it to the letter. And people of war gained Park’s decisions over that summer from June through to October, roughly he made daily decisions about deployment and then never managed to significantly improve on his decisions in terms of trying to do it.

[01:59:44] 特里·史密斯:他在巨大的日常压力下做到了这一点。当然,他本人就是一名战斗机飞行员。他曾作为战斗机飞行员参加过第一次世界大战,每天都开着他那架注册号为 OK 1 的霍克“飓风”战斗机在机场上空转悠。一天结束时,他会去了解发生了什么、战术上有何进展、士气如何、损失情况等等。

[01:59:44] Terry Smith: He, under intense pressure every day, did that. And of course, he was himself a fighter pilot. He’d been in World War I as a fighter pilot and he flew his Hawkeye Hurricane OK 1 registration around the airfield from day to day. At the end of the day, finding out what had happened, what was happening in tactics, what morale was like, what the damage was, etc.

[02:00:03] 特里·史密斯:所以他具备这些素质。总之,他打赢了这场战役。接着发生了一件只有英国人才能干出的奇葩事——李·马洛里向丘吉尔进言,说道丁和帕克不够有攻击性。于是,在他们打赢了这场该死的战役之后,道丁被解职,帕克被调到训练司令部,对吧?

[02:00:03] Terry Smith: So he had that. Anyway he won the battle. In one of those wonderful pieces that only the Brits could do, Lee Mallory then interceded with Churchill to say that Dowding and Park weren’t aggressive enough, and so after they’d won the friggin battle, and got Dowding fired, and Park sent off to training command, right?

[02:00:19] 特里·史密斯:总之,他在训练司令部任职期间,他们意识到马耳他出了大问题。马耳他是阻止非洲军团从意大利本土获得增援的关键岛屿,正好挡在路上。而这座岛正被炸得底朝天。于是他们派帕克去那里负责空防。

[02:00:19] Terry Smith: Anyway, he was sitting in training command when they realized they had a bit of a problem with Malta. Malta was the Key Island for trying to stop the Africa Corps being reinforced from mainland Italy and was in the way. And it was being bombed to hell and back. And so they put Park in there to man the air defense.

[02:00:33] 特里·史密斯:笑眯眯的阿尔贝特·凯塞林,这位德国空军的指挥官,是个非常倒霉的家伙,因为他两次都输给了帕克——帕克后来在海上也击败了他。帕克是一名战斗机飞行员,在赴任途中,他乘坐一架布里斯托尔“英俊战士”战斗机,发现了一艘德国军舰。在飞往马耳他的途中,他坚持要求发起攻击,结果差点被击落。

[02:00:33] Terry Smith: Smiling Albert Kesselring, who ran the Luftwaffe, was a very unlucky chap because he managed to lose to Park twice, because Park then beat him in bloody water as well. And he was a fighter on his way there. He was being flown in by a Bristol Bofighter, and they spotted a German warship. On their way into Malta and part insisted that they press an attack, they were nearly shot down.

[02:00:54] 特里·史密斯:他是一名战斗机飞行员,他就是要战斗的,但他也懂士兵。有很多好照片拍到他跟士兵们一起吃圣诞午餐之类的场景。他会在各个机场飞来飞去。总之,还是典型的英国做派——这也是我极为敬佩他的一点——战争结束时他就离开了,前往亚洲指挥了战争的收尾阶段,然后回到新西兰,短暂担任过奥克兰市长。

[02:00:54] Terry Smith: And he was a fighter, he would fight, but he understood the men, there are lots of good photographs of him having Christmas lunch with the men and all that sort of thing. He would fly around the airfields and so on. Anyway, again, in typical British style, and it’s something I much admire in his regards, he left at the end of the war, went off to Asia for the end of the war in command, went back to New Zealand, was mayor of Auckland briefly.

[02:01:13] 特里·史密斯:然后就消失在默默无闻之中,再也无人问津。后来有一本书,作者是历史学家斯蒂芬·邦盖——说起来挺有意思,这人原本是律师和保险行业出身,后来回归了历史研究——我觉得那是关于这场战役最好的书,书名是《最危险的敌人》。书里有句话特别打动我。

[02:01:13] Terry Smith: And then just disappeared into obscurity and was gone and there was a book by Stephen Bungay, the historian who actually funnily enough was a historian who worked in lawyers and insurance returned to history, which I thought was the best book on the battle, the most dangerous enemy. And in it he has this wonderful phrase.

[02:01:28] 特里·史密斯:他写的那句话确实触动了我。他说,帕克就像亚瑟王传奇中的魔法师。他 literally 绕了半个地球去保卫一个甚至不是他自己国家的国家。成功完成使命之后,他就这样消失了。他还说,全世界没有任何地方有他的纪念碑,无论是英国还是新西兰。

[02:01:28] Terry Smith: He says, something really caught me. And he said, part was like a wizard in an Arthurian tale. He traveled literally halfway around the world to defend the country, which wasn’t even his own country. And then having successfully done so, he just disappeared. And he said there is no memorial to him anywhere in the world, neither in England nor in Brazil.

[02:01:49] 特里·史密斯:他说有一条“基思·帕克新月街”,但小心毒品,就仅此而已。我父亲曾在皇家空军服役,我年轻时也是个狂热的飞行爱好者。我以前飞过滑翔机、飞机和直升机,所以三种执照我都考下来了。我想,作为一个历史爱好者,读了邦盖的书,加上这样的背景,我就想:我要做点什么。

[02:01:49] Terry Smith: He said there’s a Keith Park Crescent, but beware of drugs, that’s it. And I, my father was in the RAF, and I was a keen flyer when I was young. I used to fly gliders and planes and helicopters, so I qualified to fly all of them. And I guess being a historian, reading Bungo, and with that background, I thought, I’m going to do something about it.

[02:02:07] 特里·史密斯:于是我拿到了规划许可,找人铸造了雕像,立起了纪念碑,还让帕克的家人参与进来。幸运的是,帕克家族出了几位非常出色的人。他的侄孙是做电影的。他的侄孙女也来了,负责揭幕时拉绳子。

[02:02:07] Terry Smith: And so I got the planning permission, and I got the statue fabricated, and I put up the memorial to him, and got the Park family involved. Fortunately, the Park family supplied some very good members. My, his great nephew was a movie guy. And his great niece turned up and pulled the call to unveil it.

[02:02:22] 特里·史密斯:当年幸存的不列颠战役飞行员都参与了这场运动,活动中也到场支持。因为在伦敦市中心给一位白人直男战争英雄立雕像,在如今这个年代可绝对不是一件容易的事。

[02:02:22] Terry Smith: The surviving Battle of Britain pilots all took part in the campaign and turned up for the events to run because getting a statue put up in central London of a white, Straight war hero is not exactly what you call easy in this day and age.

[02:02:37] 威廉·格林:是啊,这太有意思了。所以从某种意义上说,我的意思是,显然这里面有非凡的英雄主义,他的历史作用确实非常重要。

[02:02:37] William Green: Yeah, that’s so interesting. So in some ways, part of, I mean, obviously there’s this extraordinary heroism and his historic role is really important.

[02:02:45] 威廉·格林:我记得有一位空军中将说过一句精彩的话,说他是唯一一个可能在一天之内、甚至一个下午就输掉战争的人。所以他在实际保卫英国方面的作用极其重大。但还有另一面——他是一个无名英雄,是一个外来者。我能理解为什么这一点也会让你产生共鸣。

[02:02:45] William Green: I mean, there was a wonderful quote from one of the vice marshals saying he was the only man who could have lost the war in a day or even an afternoon. So I mean, his role in, in actually defending Britain was hugely important, but there’s also the aspect of him just being an unsung hero and him being an outsider And I can see why that would resonate for you as well.

[02:03:08] 特里·史密斯:是的,我想确实是这样。绝对认同。有意思的是,当我做这件事的时候——那种感觉就是“没有比这更孤独的事了”——我去了新西兰。我见到了他的家人,这个大家庭非常友善。我说了我打算做什么,问他们是否赞同。他们说,我们都非常支持。他们还去游说了新西兰议会。我们让新西兰所有政党都签署了一封致伦敦市长的信,表示希望这件事能成。这一切都非常顺利。

[02:03:08] Terry Smith: Yeah, it was I think so. Yeah, I think yeah, absolutely So it’s interesting because when I was doing that you can’t be more isolated without us, I went to New Zealand. I met the family were very nice extended family I said it’s what I’m planning to do. Do you approve and so on we think we’re all very supportive They you know lobby Parliament in New Zealand We’ve got every party in New Zealand to sign a letter going to the Mayor of London saying that they wanted this to happen, and that was all very good.

[02:03:29] 特里·史密斯:到了揭幕那天,我们尽可能多地邀请了家族成员前来,让他的侄孙女和一位不列颠战役老兵一起拉下揭幕的绳子。但在筹备过程中有件有趣的事——我说,你们觉得邀请德国人来参加仪式怎么样?

[02:03:29] Terry Smith: And we got to the unveiling and invited as many of the family to come as could, and we got his great niche to pull the cord with one of the, her and one of the Battle of Britain players. But I said, in the build up to it, was interesting, I said what do you think about inviting the Germans to the ceremony?

[02:03:44] 特里·史密斯:因为我觉得,从某种和解精神的角度来说,也许我们应该邀请。但我想你们应该告诉我你们的想法。他们说,基思叔叔从来没有原谅过他们。他每天都要做出那些决定,送年轻人去死。那种感觉从来没有离开过他,对吧?这就回到你刚才说的——他是一个无名英雄,一个外来者,一个英雄。

[02:03:44] Terry Smith: Because I said, in some respects, in a spirit of reconciliation, maybe we should. But I think you should tell me what you want to do. And they said, Uncle Keith never forgave them. He, every day he had to make these decisions to send young men to their death. Ever left him. Right? The, and that comes back to your saying about him being an unsung and an outsider and hero.

[02:04:02] 特里·史密斯:所有这些都交织在一起。他每天都做出正确的战术决策,在长期极端的压力下,这些决策都奏效了。而每一次他做出那些决定的时候,他都知道自己是在送那些 20 岁、很多还训练不足的年轻人去死。他知道这一点,但他还是做了,因为那是他的职责。但这并不意味着他做这些事的时候心里总是很轻松,我想。

[02:04:02] Terry Smith: It’s all those things. And he made good tactical decisions every day, which worked and under extreme pressure over long periods of time. And every time he knew that he took those decisions, he knew he was sending guys who were 20 years of age, many of them under trained out to die. And he knew that and he did it because that was what his job was. But it didn’t mean that he did it feeling very cheerful about it sometimes, I imagine.

[02:04:25] 威廉·格林:是的,真是一个丰富而有趣的故事。非常感谢你跟我们分享这些。也感谢你如此慷慨地付出时间和见解。我真的很享受过去几天沉浸在特里·史密斯的思想世界里。所以,谢谢你。能跟你交谈是我极大的荣幸。

[02:04:25] William Green: Yeah, such a rich and interesting story. Thanks so much for sharing that with us. And thanks for being so generous with your time and your insights. I just really enjoyed spending the last few days deeply immersing myself in the mind of Terry Smith. So, thank you. It’s been a great pleasure getting to speak with you.

[02:04:42] 特里·史密斯:还有一个故事要讲,是关于一辆车的。我觉得这辆车很好地诠释了——如果你想找到汽车与投资之间的联系的话。YouTube 上有个视频,你可以搜一下,叫《一个人如何造出完美的汽车》。我强烈推荐。你熟悉迈凯伦 F1 吗?

[02:04:42] Terry Smith: One story to go with is about a car. And I think it’s a car that exemplifies, if you were trying to get a link between cars and investment. There’s a video on YouTube which you can look up called, How One Man Made the Perfect Car. I commend it to you. And are you familiar with the McLaren F1?

[02:04:59] 威廉·格林:嗯,算熟悉吧。我知道你有一辆。

[02:04:59] William Green: I mean, somewhat. I know that you have one.

[02:05:02] 特里·史密斯:好的。事情是这样的:戈登·默里——就是在艾尔顿·塞纳时代让迈凯伦取得巨大成功的那个人——某天忽然决定,实际上是在日内瓦机场,我想是和罗恩·丹尼斯一起,他们之前从未造过公路车,但他们决定要造一辆公路车。

[02:05:02] Terry Smith: Okay. What happened was Gordon Murray, who was the man behind the wild success of McLaren under Ayrton Senna and so on, literally decided one day, actually at Geneva airport, I think with Ron Dennis and so on they never made a road car before they’re going to make a road car.

[02:05:15] 特里·史密斯:他定的制造原则是:他们要造出有史以来最好的公路车。而且我想说,考虑到之后汽车行业的发展方向,这辆车以后也不会被超越。我认为他做到了。他造了一辆非凡的车。我的意思是,我有一辆 1995 年款的。

[02:05:15] Terry Smith: And he decided that the basis for making it was they were going to make. The best road car that ever had been built, and I would suggest ever will be built, given the way that things have moved on since then. And I think he achieved it. He made a car which is extraordinary. I mean, it’s an, I’ve got a 1995 example.

[02:05:31] 特里·史密斯:它能跑到每小时 243 英里。这可是一辆 30 年前的车,对吧?真是不可思议。如果你去看那个视频,会让你印象深刻的其中一点是:他造了一辆极快的车,但同时它也非常安全,因为它是碳纤维单体壳结构等等。而且它实际上还挺实用——有三个座位,还有行李空间,甚至能放下高尔夫球包,你可以把球杆装进去——我不打高尔夫。但他从来不在意这车能跑多快。

[02:05:31] Terry Smith: It does 243 miles per hour. This is a 30 year old car, right? Okay. It’s extraordinary. And if you watch that, one of the things you’ll find striking is He made a very fast car. It’s also a very safe car because it’s a carbon fiber monocoque and so on, but, and it’s actually a practical car, it’s got three seats and it’s got luggage, you can even get, it comes with a golf bag, you can get your golf clubs in it, I don’t play golf, but he never took any interest in how fast it was going to go.

[02:05:58] 特里·史密斯:如果你记得我的《所有者手册》,我在里面提到过一件事:间接性——不直接瞄着目标。我说,我有幸认识了很多非常富有的人。我想不出有哪个人是靠一心想着赚钱而变得非常富有的。他们是想做出更好的产品和服务,是想把事情做得比别人好。

[02:05:58] Terry Smith: And if you remember my owner’s manual, one of the things I mentioned there is obliquity, not aiming for the sort of objective. I say, I’ve been fortunate to meet an awful lot of very rich people. I can’t think of one of them who got very rich trying to make money. They tried to make things and services and they tried to do things better than other people.

[02:06:18] 特里·史密斯:他们有一个想法,或者一种投入,要把事情做得比别人好。我觉得亨利·福特不是为了赚钱,他是想造车,而且想造得比别人好。正是这一点让他走到了那样的高度。我认为迈凯伦 F1 就是一个完美的例证。

[02:06:18] Terry Smith: They had an idea or an input to do things better than other people. And I think Henry Ford didn’t want to make money, he wanted to make cars, and he wanted to make better than other people made cars. And that’s what got him to where he went. And I think that McLaren F1 is a perfect example of literary.

[02:06:35] 特里·史密斯:那是一辆快得惊人的车。想想那是 30 年前造出来的东西,而且据所有人说,戈登·默里从来没有要求他们做过任何关于车能跑多快的计算。它跑得快,是他设计和制造方式的结果,而不是他的目标。

[02:06:35] Terry Smith: It’s a fantastically fast car. And when you think that that was 30 years ago making that thing and by all accounts, Gordon Murray never once asked ’em to do any kind of calculation about how fast the car would go. It went fast as a result of how he designed and built it not as a name.

[02:06:51] 威廉·格林:所以,在某种意义上,我想把这个话题收个尾——这一切又回到了那辆冰淇淋卡车上的标语:品质至上。

[02:06:51] William Green: So, in a way, I guess to run this off, it all goes back to the slogan on the ice cream truck. It’s quality that counts.

[02:06:58] 特里·史密斯:我觉得是的。确实如此。我对那辆车的看法是,再也不会有第二辆这样的车了,那两辆都不会。我的意思是,你想想看,这个东西跑到 243 英里每小时,却没有助力刹车,没有助力转向,没有防抱死刹车,也没有四轮驱动。

[02:06:58] Terry Smith: I think it’s I think it does. I think it is. And my view of that car is there will never be another car like it in those two cars. I mean, you know, the idea that you have this thing that does 243 miles an hour, it has no Power brakes, it has no power steering. It has no anti-lock brakes, it has no four wheel drive.

[02:07:13] 特里·史密斯:那辆车唯一拥有的就是你和车本身,仅此而已。这就是为什么罗温·艾金森的车、拉夫·劳伦的车、埃隆·马斯克的车,还有伯恩哈特·普雷施赖特的车全都撞了。大多数时候,车比坐在驾驶座上的人更能干。

[02:07:13] Terry Smith: The only thing that car has is you and the car. That’s it, which is how Rowan Atkinson’s car, Ralph Lauren’s car, Elon Musk’s car, and Bernhardt Presschreiter’s car all got crashed. The car is more capable than the person sitting in the seat most of the time.

[02:07:31] 威廉·格林:真有意思。和你聊天太愉快了。我又想起那句“警探哈里”的台词了。

[02:07:31] William Green: Really interesting. It’s been such a delight chatting with you. I was back to the magnum force quote.

[02:07:36] 特里·史密斯:是啊,你可以坐进那辆车去开它,但你得心里有数。

[02:07:36] Terry Smith: Yeah, you can sit in that car and drive it, but you should be aware of something.

[02:07:41] 威廉·格林:没错,人得知道自己的斤两。

[02:07:41] William Green: Yeah, man’s got to know his limitations.

[02:07:43] 特里·史密斯:我希望这正是你想要的,或者说差不多是你想要的。

[02:07:43] Terry Smith: I hope that is what you wanted or something like what you wanted.

[02:07:45] 威廉·格林:哦,这真是莫大的享受。总有一天我会去毛里求斯看看,希望到时候能亲眼见识一下那边什么样。

[02:07:45] William Green: Oh, it’s been a great pleasure. And one of these days I’ll make it out to Mauritius and hopefully I’ll actually see what it’s like there.

[02:07:52] 特里·史密斯:你到时候直接来就行,不用提前打招呼,我们会热烈欢迎你。另外,告诉你母亲,我的支票 16 天后就寄出去,她看到上面的数字准会吓一跳,就像《卡萨布兰卡》里的雷诺警长那样。

[02:07:52] Terry Smith: And without letting us know, we make you very welcome and tell your mother that my check is going off in 16 day’s time, and she would be shocked, rather like Inspector Renaud at Casablanca at the number on it.

[02:08:04] 威廉·格林:太好了,我肯定会的。她听到这个消息会非常高兴。特里,很高兴认识你,真是莫大的荣幸。

[02:08:04] William Green: Excellent. I certainly am. She’ll be very happy to hear it. Terry, lovely meeting you. A real pleasure.

[02:08:10] 特里·史密斯:再见。

[02:08:10] Terry Smith: Bye bye.

[02:08:11] 威廉·格林:保重。

[02:08:11] William Green: Take care.

[02:08:12] 威廉·格林:好了,各位朋友,非常感谢大家收听我与杰出的特里·史密斯的这段对话。如果你想从特里那里学到更多,可以去他投资公司的网站看看,地址是 www.fundsmith.co.uk。他还写了几本书,其中包括一本收录了他 2010 年至 2020 年文章的文选集。

[02:08:12] William Green: All right, folks, thanks so much for listening to this conversation with the remarkable Terry Smith. If you’d like to learn more from Terry, you may want to check out the website of his investment firm, which you can find at www.fundsmith.co.uk. He’s also written a couple of books, including an anthology of his writings from 2010 to 2020.

[02:08:35] 威廉·格林:书名是《为增长而投资》,副标题是“如何通过只买入世界上最优秀的公司来赚钱”。我很快会回来,带来更多精彩的嘉宾,其中包括我两位一直最爱的老友,作家皮科·伊耶和对冲基金经理克里斯托弗·贝格。与此同时,欢迎大家在 X 平台上关注我,账号是 @WilliamGreen72,或者通过 LinkedIn 与我联系。和往常一样,欢迎随时告诉我你对这档播客的感想。听到你的反馈总是让我很开心。下次见,多保重,祝一切安好。

[02:08:35] William Green: It’s titled, Investing for Growth, and it’s subtitled, How to Make Money by Only Buying the Best Companies in the World. I’ll be back very soon with some more terrific guests, including the return of two of my all-time favorites, author Pico Iyer and hedge fund manager Christopher Begg. In the meantime, please feel free to follow me on X @WilliamGreen72 or connect with me on LinkedIn. And as always, do let me know how you’re enjoying the podcast. It’s always a pleasure to hear from you. Until next time, take good care and stay well.

[02:09:09] 片尾:感谢收听 TIP 播客。请务必在你最喜欢的播客应用上关注《Richer, Wiser, Happier》,不要错过任何一期节目。要查看我们的节目笔记、文字稿或课程,请访问 theinvestorspodcast.com。本节目仅供娱乐用途。在做出任何决定之前,请咨询专业人士。本节目版权归 The Investor’s Podcast Network 所有。未经书面许可,不得进行联合播出或重新广播。

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