Trustnet：为什么有些CEO比大多数基金经理更善于投资
管理着 Fundsmith Equity 基金的基金经理表示，作为长期投资者，他实际上是在把投资决策分包给他所投资公司的首席执行官们。
The Fundsmith Equity manager says that as a long-term investor, he is in effect sub-contracting to the CEOs of the companies he invests in.
特里·史密斯声称，他在 Fundsmith Equity 基金中持股公司的首席执行官们，其投资能力要胜过大多数基金经理。
Terry Smith has claimed the CEOs of the companies he owns in Fundsmith Equity are better investors than most fund managers.
规模达 270 亿英镑的 Fundsmith Equity 基金，通常投资于资本回报率（ROCE）在 25% 至 30% 之间的公司。这意味着这些公司的首席执行官们，成功地将现金投入业务，并创造出了远超股东权益及长期债务的利润。
The £27bn Fundsmith Equity fund typically invests in companies that offer between 25 and 30% return on capital employed [ROCE]. This means that the CEOs of these companies have managed to invest cash into their business and generate profits far in excess of both shareholder equity and its long-term debt.
史密斯（如图）表示：“这是衡量一家公司表现的最重要的财务指标。如果你把钱存进银行账户，你会想知道利率是多少——我知道现在利率不高，但它过去很重要，将来也会再次重要起来。”
Smith (pictured) said: “It is the single most important financial measure of what a company is delivering. If you invest in a bank account, you want to know the rate of interest – not much now I know, but it has been important and will be again.
“如果你持有债券，你会想知道到期收益率。如果你投资基金，你会想知道它能带来什么样的回报。为什么对一家公司，你却会忽略这一点呢？”
“If you own a bond, you want to know the redemption yield. If you invest in a fund, you want to know what sort of returns it can deliver. Why would you ignore this for a company?
“此外，如果你长期持有股票，它们带来的回报会趋向于这家公司的资本回报率。”
“Plus, if you own shares for long periods of time, the returns they deliver will gravitate towards the company’s return on capital.”
那么，如果这些首席执行官能实现 25% 至 30% 的资本回报率，这是否意味着他们是比大多数基金经理更优秀的投资者呢？毕竟许多基金经理常常跑不赢基准指数。
So, if these CEOs can generate a return on capital of 25 to 30%, does this mean they are better investors than most fund managers, who often fail to beat their benchmark?
根据史密斯的说法，答案是肯定的，尽管他承认他们相对于基金经理有一个优势。
Yes, according to Smith, although he admitted they have one advantage over fund managers.
他解释道：“他们是在一个强大的经济特许权内投资，这家企业本身质地优良，有能力带来良好的回报。”
“They are investing within a powerful franchise in a good business which is capable of delivering good returns,” he explained.
“这仍然需要技巧，但如果他们坚守本业，应该会有所回报。当你是一个长期投资者时，你实际上是在把你投资公司的首席执行官们当作你的‘分包商’。”
“It still requires skill, but if they stick to their knitting, it should pay off. When you are a long-term investor, you are in effect sub-contracting to the CEOs of the companies you invest in.”
史密斯以买入并持有著称，但当首席执行官们无法再以能带来他所追求回报的方式配置资本时，他确实会执行卖出纪律。
Smith is known for his buy-and-hold approach to investing, but he does exercise a sell discipline when CEOs are no longer able to allocate capital in a way that delivers the returns he is after.
他说：“我们的目标是买入好公司并永远持有，但有时情况会发生变化。我们的许多卖出都是非自愿的——公司被收购了。”
“We aim to buy good companies and hold them forever, but sometimes circumstances change,” he said. “Many of our sales have been involuntary – the company has been taken over.
“在其他情况下，我们判断管理层不再以能够带来我们所寻求的那种复利回报的方式来配置资本或经营业务。”
“In other cases, we have determined that the management is no longer allocating capital or running the business in a manner which should deliver the sort of compound returns we seek.
“我们还会不断审视我们可投资的领域，看看是否有其他优秀公司似乎提供更好的价值和回报，如果有，我们就会转换过去。这种情况在市场波动时期尤其可能发生，比如 2020 年第二季度。”
“We also continually scour our investable universe to see if there are any other good companies which seem to offer better value and returns, and if so, we switch into them. This is particularly likely to happen when we have periods of market volatility, such as in the second quarter of 2020.”
然而，这并不意味着他会偏离他众所周知的投资格言——一旦买入一家优质公司，就“什么都不做”。这种方法的好处是降低了交易成本，帮助他避免择时交易的陷阱，并最大化复利的长期效益。
However, that does not mean he is straying from his well-known investment mantra of “do nothing” once he has bought a quality company. The benefit of this approach is that it reduces the costs of trading, helps him avoid the pitfalls of market timing and maximises the long-term benefits of compounding.
他说：“每年我们都会公布一份名单，列出对我们基金业绩贡献最大的前五只股票。”
“Every year we publish a list of the stocks which have been the top five contributors to our fund’s performance,” he said.
“微软已经连续六年出现在这份名单上。PayPal 和 Stryker 连续四年。Idexx 连续三年。显然，对于这些股票来说，什么都不做是正确的行动方针。”
“Microsoft has appeared in that list for six years. PayPal and Stryker for four. Idexx for three. Clearly, doing nothing was the correct course of action with these stocks.
“据说没有人因为获利了结而变穷，但我怀疑他们也没有因此变富。”
“It’s said that no one ever became poor as a result of taking a profit, but I suspect that they didn’t become rich either.”
近几周，随着美国国债收益率上升，市场开始使用更高的贴现率来折减未来任何收益的价值，Fundsmith 投资的那种成长型股票遭到了抛售。
In recent weeks, the types of growth stocks that Fundsmith invests in have sold off amidst rising US Treasury yields, as markets have begun to use higher discount rates to write down the value of any future earnings.
当被问及投资者是否应该担心估值时，史密斯说：“虽然我们担心估值，但被重新估值的不仅仅是我们持有的股票。水涨船高。”
When asked about whether investors should be worried about valuations, Smith said: “Whilst we worry about valuation, it is not only the stocks we own which have been revalued. A rising tide floats all ships.”
他还暗示，未来加息可能不可避免：“投资者确实应该担心利率最终上升对估值的影响。问题在于，我怀疑是否有人知道何时会加息。”
He also hinted that future interest rate rises might be inevitable: “Investors should indeed be concerned about the impact on valuations of an eventual rise in interest rates. The problem is that I doubt anyone knows when that will occur.”
在过去十年中，Fundsmith Equity 基金的回报率为 486%，是 IA 全球行业平均回报率 219.8% 的两倍多。
Fundsmith Equity has returned 486% over the last decade, more than double the IA Global sector’s average of 219.8%.
Fundsmith Equity 与行业十年业绩对比
Performance of Fundsmith Equity v sector over 10yrs
来源：FE Analytics
Source: FE Analytics