1995 年股东大会 · 上午场

2018-11-28 · 原文约 23280 词
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沃伦·巴菲特早上好。我是沃伦·巴菲特,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长。在我左边是查理·芒格,副董事长兼我的合伙人。我们会想办法让他在某个时候说几句话的。(笑声)今天的流程会稍微有点不同。我们有一项议程——通常,我们会很快地开完这个会,这次也一样,但在优先股方面有一项事务,我可以说这让一些人感到困惑。所以,我会稍微讨论一下。如果在那项投票之前,有人想讨论优先股的问题,我们会在那时接受任何意见或提问。然后我们会快速完成会议的其余部分,接着进入提问环节。届时我还会做一个宣布。之后,我们会一直进行到大概中午。请随意,如果有人想提前离开,当然你随时可以走。我提过,最好是趁查理说话的时候走。(笑声)而且你得动作快点。(笑声)但我们会在接近中午时休息几分钟,以便大家能有条不紊地离场。外面有巴士送你们回酒店,或者去任何伯克希尔旗下的商业场所。因为有很多——我们这里有来自全美 50 个州中 49 个州的人,至少根据预约的门票来看是这样。只有佛蒙特州缺席。我们有——但我们有阿拉斯加,我们每个地方都有代表团。我们有来自澳大利亚、以色列、瑞典、法国、英国的人,还有 40 多位来自加拿大。所以,很多人是远道而来的。因此,查理和我会留下来。实际上,我们会就在这里吃午餐。我们不会——你大概不想看我们吃相。不过——好吧,我们会一直待到可能下午 3 点,但如果人群减少到几百人以下,我们就会觉得可以结束了。但我们确实想回答每个人的问题。你们都是公司的部分所有者。任何与你们持有伯克希尔股份相关的问题,我们都希望能给你们机会提问。因为这里人数众多,这很困难。我不知道另一个房间有多少人。但在这个房间里,我相信大约有 3300 人。我们希望都能照顾到——照顾到你们所有人。所以,这会在会议之后进行。现在,我们有一点事务要处理。

WARREN BUFFETTMorning. I'm Warren Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. And on my left is Charlie Munger, the vice chairman and my partner. And we'll try to get him to say a few words at some point in the proceedings. (Laughter) The format today is going to be just slightly different. We have one item to — normally, we breeze through the meeting pretty fast, and we'll do that, but we have one item of business on the preferred stock that I could tell caused some confusion with people. So, I'll discuss that a little bit. And if, before the vote on that, anybody would like to talk about the preferred issue, we'll have any comments or questions at that time. And then we'll breeze through the rest of the meeting, and then we'll open it up. And I'll have one announcement to make then, too. And then after that, we'll go for, maybe, close to noon. And feel free, earlier, anybody that would like to leave, you're free to, obviously, at any time. Better form to do it while Charlie's talking, as I've mentioned. (Laughter) And you'll have to be quick. (Laughter) But then we'll have a break a little before noon for a few minutes, while a more orderly retreat can be conducted. And we'll have buses outside to take you back to the hotels or to any of the commercial establishments that Berkshire's involved in. And then because so many of the — we have people here, at least based on the tickets reserved, from 49 of the 50 states. Only Vermont is absent. We have — but we have Alaska, we have a delegation from every place. We have people from Australia, Israel, Sweden, France, the U.K., 40-some from Canada. So, a lot of people have come a long way. So, Charlie and I will stick around. In fact, we'll eat our lunch right up here. And we will — you don't want to watch what we eat. The — but the — well, we'll stick around until perhaps as late as even 3 o'clock, but if the crowd gets below a couple of hundred, then we'll feel we can cut it off. But we do want to answer everyone's questions. You people are part owners of the company. And any question that relates to your ownership of Berkshire, we want to be able to give you a chance to ask. And it's tough because of the numbers of people here. I don't know how many are in the other room. But there're about 3,300, I believe, in this room. And we want to get to you — to all of you. So, that will come after the meeting. Now, we've got a little business to take care of.

选举董事

Election of directors

沃伦·巴菲特会议正式开始。我首先要介绍除我以外的伯克希尔董事。他们就在台下。我念到名字,请站起来。苏珊·T·巴菲特(掌声)。霍华德·巴菲特(掌声)这些名字都是我们照着电话簿找来的,你们懂的——(笑声)马尔科姆·切斯三世(掌声)。还有小沃尔特·斯科特(掌声)。今天与会的还有我们审计师事务所德勤的合伙人,罗恩·伯吉斯先生和克雷格·克里斯蒂安森先生。他们可以回答你们可能提出的、有关他们事务所审计伯克希尔账目的恰当问题。福雷斯特·克鲁特先生是伯克希尔的秘书。他将对会议进程进行书面记录。罗伯特·M·菲茨西蒙斯先生被任命为本次会议的选举监察员。他将对董事选举的投票结果进行认证。本次会议指定的代理投票人是小沃尔特·斯科特和马克·汉堡。截至上周五返回的代理卡,代表 998,258 股伯克希尔股份,将由代理投票人按卡上指示投票。该股份数已构成法定人数,因此我们将直接进行会议。我们先处理会议事务,然后结束正式会议。之后,我们再接受大家的提问。第一项议程是宣读上一次股东大会的会议记录。我请小沃尔特·斯科特先生向会议提出一项动议。

WARREN BUFFETTThe meeting will come to order. And I'll first introduce the directors of Berkshire, in addition to myself. They're right down here. And if you'll stand up when I give your name. Susan T. Buffett (Applause). Howard Buffett (Applause) These are names we found in the phone book, you can understand — (Laughter) Malcolm Chace, III (Applause) And Walter Scott Jr. (Applause) Also with us today are partners in the firm of Deloitte and Touche, our auditors, Mr. Ron Burgess and Mr. Craig Christiansen (PH). They're available to respond to appropriate questions you might have concerning their firm's audit of the accounts of Berkshire. Mr. Forrest Krutter is secretary of Berkshire. He will make a written record of the proceedings. Mr. Robert M. Fitzsimmons has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting. He will certify to the account of votes cast in the election for directors. The named proxy holders for this meeting are Walter Scott Jr. and Marc Hamburg. Proxy cards have been returned through last Friday representing 998,258 Berkshire shares to be voted by the proxy holders as indicated on the cards. That number of shares represents a quorum, and we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting. We will conduct the business of the meeting and then adjourn the formal meeting. After that we'll entertain questions you might have. First order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott Jr. who will place a motion before the meeting.

小沃尔特·斯科特我动议免于宣读上一次股东大会的会议记录。

WALTER SCOTT JR.I move that the reading of the minutes of the last meeting of the shareholders be dispensed with.

沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?

WARREN BUFFETTDo I hear a second?

现场人士我附议。

VOICEI second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTDo I hear a second? (Laughter)

现场人士我附议。

VOICEI second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特动议已获提出和附议。有意见或提问吗?我们将通过口头表决对此动议进行投票。所有赞成的说“赞成”。

WARREN BUFFETTThe motion has been moved and seconded. Are there any comments or questions? We'll vote on the motion by voice vote. All of those in favor say, "Aye."

现场人士赞成。

VOICESAye.

沃伦·巴菲特反对?动议通过。(笑声)秘书是否可以报告一下,有权在会上投票且已出席会议的伯克希尔流通在外的股份总数?

WARREN BUFFETTOpposed? The motion is carried. (Laughter) Does the secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding entitled to vote and represented at the meeting?

福雷斯特·克鲁特是的,我报告。正如附于本次会议通知的代理声明中所指出的,该通知于 1995 年 3 月 7 日,即本次会议的股权登记日,通过一类邮件寄送给了所有在册股东。当时伯克希尔流通在外的普通股共计 1,177,750 股,每股有权就会议审议的动议投一票。其中,截至上周五收回的代理卡所代表的 998,258 股,出席了本次会议。

FORREST KRUTTERYes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent by first-class mail to all shareholders of record on March 7, 1995, being the record date for this meeting, there were 1,177,750 shares of Berkshire common stock outstanding, with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at the meeting. Of that number, 998,258 shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through last Friday.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。如果有股东在场,并希望撤回此前已寄出的代理卡,就代理声明所列的两项议程亲自投票,可以这么做。同样,如果在场股东尚未提交代理卡,并希望领取选票以亲自就这两项议程投票,也可以。如希望这样做,请向过道中的会议工作人员表明身份,他们会给您提供两张选票,一项议程一张。希望获得选票的股东请举手示意,方便我们分发?只要举一下手,就会有人给您送来。本次会议的第一项议程是选举董事。我现在请小沃尔特·斯科特先生就选举董事事宜向会议提出动议。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you. If a shareholder is present who wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in and vote in person on the two items of business provided for in the proxy statement, he or she may do so. Also, if any shareholder that's present has not turned in a proxy and desires a ballot in order to vote in person on these two items, you may do so. If you wish to do this, please identify yourself to meeting officials in the aisles who will furnish two ballots to you, one for each item. Would those persons desiring ballots please identify themselves so we may distribute them? Just raise your hand and you'll get one. The first item of business of this meeting is to elect directors. I now recognize Mr. Walter Scott Jr. to place a motion before the meeting with respect to election of directors.

小沃尔特·斯科特我动议选举沃伦·E·巴菲特、苏珊·T·巴菲特、霍华德·G·巴菲特、马尔科姆·G·切斯三世、查尔斯·T·芒格和小沃尔特·斯科特为董事。

WALTER SCOTT JR.I move that Warren E. Buffett, Susan T. Buffett, Howard G. Buffett, Malcolm G. Chase, III, Charles T. Munger and Walter Scott Jr. be elected as directors.

现场人士我附议。

VOICEI second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特已有人动议并获附议,选举沃伦·E·巴菲特、苏珊·T·巴菲特、霍华德·G·巴菲特、马尔科姆·G·切斯三世、查尔斯·T·芒格和小沃尔特·斯科特为董事。还有其他提名吗?需要讨论吗?你们做得很好。(笑声)提名已可以付诸表决。现场亲自投票的股东,现在请在董事选举选票上做好标记,并将选票交给选举监察员。请把选票收上来。请各位代理人也向选举监察员提交一份董事选举选票,按收到的指示进行投票。菲茨西蒙斯先生,你准备好了就可以宣读报告。

WARREN BUFFETTIt has been moved and seconded that Warren E. Buffett, Susan T. Buffett, Howard G. Buffett, Malcolm G. Chase, III, Charles T. Munger and Walter Scott Jr. be elected as directors. Are there any other nominations? There any discussion? You're doing fine. (Laughter) The nominations are ready to be acted upon. If there are shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballots on the election for directors and allow the ballots to be delivered to the inspector of election. Collect those, please. Would the proxy holders please also submit to the inspector of elections, a ballot on the election of directors, voting the proxies in accordance with the instructions they've received? Mr. Fitzsimmons, when you're ready, you may give your report.

罗伯特·菲茨西蒙斯我的报告准备就绪。根据截至上周五收到的代理投票书,每位被提名人的得票数不少于 996,892 票。得票数远超已发行股份总数的过半数。特拉华州法律要求的精确计票证明,包括本次大会上的现场投票结果,将交给秘书归档于本次股东大会会议记录。

ROBERT FITZSIMMONSMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders received through last Friday cast not less than 996,892 votes for each nominee. That number far exceeds a majority of the number of shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law regarding the precise count of the votes, including the votes cast in person at this meeting, will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,菲茨西蒙斯先生。沃伦·E·巴菲特、苏珊·T·巴菲特、霍华德·G·巴菲特、马尔科姆·G·切斯三世、查尔斯·T·芒格和小沃尔特·斯科特已当选为董事。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Mr. Fitzsimmons. Warren E. Buffett, Susan T. Buffett, Howard G. Buffett, Malcolm G. Chase, III, Charles T. Munger and Walter Scott Jr. Have been elected as directors.

授权发行优先股的动议

Motion authorizing preferred stock

沃伦·巴菲特本次会议的第二项议程是审议董事会关于修改公司章程的建议。该修正案将在章程中增设一项条款,授权董事会以系列方式发行最多 100 万股优先股,其优先权、限制及相对权利由董事会自行决定。我们在年报里已经讨论过一些。但我想说 —— 待会儿我们能知道准确数字 —— 我记得大概有 11 或 12 —— 可能 1.2 万股左右投票反对这项提案。还有大约两千股弃权。既然这项提案确实没有弊端,这说明我没有把授权优先股的理由解释清楚。所以我想花几分钟谈一谈。同时,任何想提问的朋友现在都可以问。会后讨论也行。但如果您想在表决前提问,那更好。这个授权就是字面意思。它只是授权,不是发行指令,也不是强制要求。它只是让公司董事会在适合发行优先股的情况下有采取行动的能力。我们收购企业时 —— 过几分钟我就跟你们说一桩交易 —— 有时卖家想要现金,有时想要普通股。当然也有可能,就像去年有位潜在卖家那样,他们想要可转换优先股。从我们的角度看,只要我们付出的对价价值相等,我们其实不在乎用哪种形式 —— 除了可能获得的税基问题 —— 在经济层面,我们不在乎使用哪种对价形式,因为我们会使现金、普通优先股、可转换优先股或普通股的价值相等。所以,如果你们担心发行优先股会出昏招 —— 这种担忧完全合理,但你们也应该同样担心我们用现金或普通股会出昏招。我是说,如果我们打算干蠢事,用各种工具都能干。(笑声)我们不会因为有了优先股就变得更加放纵。优先股可能让卖家有机会与我们进行免税换股。他们可能不想要普通股,因为他们的持股结构可能不想承担普通股的风险。所以我们的优先股在条款上很灵活。我们可以给那些人发行固定利率优先股,发行时票面利率使其价值等于面值。这样他们就知道未来很多年的收入是多少。这可能对他们至关重要。我们也可以发行浮动利率优先股,随货币市场状况调整票面利率。这样他们就能确保余生本金价值不变。这两个因素对不同的卖家可能都特别重要。因此,如果我们能发行各种形式的优先股,我们就有了更多种类的货币可用于收购。因为优先股如果结构设计得当,就能让卖家实现免税交易。这对很多卖家很重要。归根结底,很多卖家还是会像过去一样选择现金。而且大部分不要现金的卖家会选普通股。但我们会准备好优先股。我们只授权 100 万股,是因为根据特拉华州法律,每年有个年费 —— 我知道有个初始费,而且年费与授权股数挂钩。如果我们授权 1 亿股,年费就更高了,芒格先生不会允许我这么干。(笑声)所以如果我们发行优先股,毫无疑问,我们会分设子系列,这样在税务上股数相对有限。但我们会分设子系列,主要是为了方便在市场上找零。如果需要,我们可能发行可转换优先股。但发行时,可转换优先股的价值不会高于普通优先股。我们会调整票面利率和转换价格等。这样我们就可以用各种形式的货币来满足卖家的需求。这不过是多了一个工具。就像我说的,除非我们干蠢事,否则没有弊端。而如果我们用这个工具干蠢事,我们用现金或其他工具也会干蠢事。所以 —— 我们可能早就该做这件事了,但之前从来没有卖家想要这种货币形式。所以就一直没做。我们总觉得可以很快完成授权。但如果有交易在谈,没必要因为等这个授权而耽误两三个月。所以这只是一个额外工具。如果有人对优先股有疑问或看法,像我说过的,可以等到会后,但我很乐意在表决前回答。有问题吗?好的,那边有位提问者。请稍等一下,我们把麦克风递过去。提问时,无论现在还是以后,如果能报一下姓名和居住地,我会很感激。

WARREN BUFFETTThe second item of business at this meeting is to consider the recommendation of the board of directors to amend the company's certificate of incorporation. The proposed amendment would add a provision to the certificate of incorporation authorizing the board of directors to issue up to one million shares of preferred stock in one or more series, with such preferences, limitations, and relative rights as the board of directors may determine. Now, we discussed this some in the annual report. But I would say — and we'll find out the exact number — but I think we probably had 11 or 12 — maybe 12,000 or so shares voted against the proposal. And I think we had a couple thousand shares that abstained. And since there really is no downside to the proposal, that indicated to me that I'd not done a very adequate job of explaining the logic of authorizing the preferred. So, I'd like to discuss that for a minute now. And I'd also like anybody that would like to ask questions about it, they can do so now. We can talk about it later, too. But if you'd like to do it before the vote, that'd be fine. The authorization is just that. It's an authorization. It's not a command to issue shares. It's not a directive. It simply gives the directors of the company the ability, in a situation where it makes sense for the company to issue preferred shares, to do so. Now, when we acquire businesses — and I'll tell you about one when we're through with this in a few minutes — when we acquire businesses, sometimes the seller of the business wants cash. Sometimes they would like common stock. And it's certainly possible, as one potential seller did last year, that they wanted, in that case, a convertible preferred stock. Now, from our standpoint, as long as the value of the consideration that we give equates, we really don't care, aside from a question of tax basis we might obtain, but we — In other economic respects, we don't care what form of consideration we use, because we will equate the value of cash, versus a straight preferred, versus a convertible preferred, versus common stock, whatever it may be. So, if the worry is that we will do something dumb in issuing the preferred stock, you should — that's a perfectly valid worry. But you should worry just as much we'll do something dumb in terms of using cash or common stock. I mean, if we're going to do something unintelligent, we can do it with a variety of instruments. (Laughter) And we will not get more licentious in our behavior or anything simply because we have the preferred stock. And the preferred stock may offer sellers of a business the chance to do a tax-free exchange with us. And they may not want common stock, because they may have an ownership situation where they don't want to run the risk of common stock ownership. And that's why our preferred is flexible as to terms. Because we could give those people a straight preferred with a coupon that made it worth par at the time we issued it. And then they would know what their income would be for the next umpteen years. And that may be of paramount interest to them. We could issue them an adjustable-rate preferred, which as money market conditions change, would also change its coupon. And then they would be sure of a constant principal value for the rest of their lifetimes. And one or both of those factors could be more important to one seller or another. So that we simply have more forms of currency available to make acquisitions if we have the ability to issue various forms of preferred. Because a preferred stock, if it's properly structured, allows for the possibility of a tax-free transaction with a seller. And that's important to many sellers. Now, in the end, many sellers will prefer cash, just as in the past. And probably most of the sellers that don't want cash will want common stock. But we will have a preferred stock available. We're only authorizing a million shares because under Delaware law, there's an annual — I think there's an annual fee. I know there's an initial fee. And I think there's an annual fee that relates to the amount of shares authorized. So, if we authorized a hundred million shares, we would be paying a larger annual fee, which is something Mr. Munger wouldn't let me do. (Laughter) So what we will do, if we issue this, we will issue — undoubtedly, we will issue some sub-shares so that the numbers of shares, for taxation purposes, is relatively limited. But that we will issue sub-shares to make it easier to make change, essentially, in the market. We may issue — if the occasion demands — we may issue a convertible preferred. But that convertible preferred would not be worth any more, at the time we issue it, than a straight preferred. We would adjust, in terms of the coupon, and the conversion price, and so on. So we can equate various forms of currency to fit the desires of the seller of the business. And this is simply one more tool to do it. There's no downside, like I say, unless we do something stupid. And if we do something stupid with this, we would do something stupid with cash or whatever. So it —we probably should've done this some time ago, but we never had a case of a seller wanting that form of currency before. And so it just — and we always felt we could get it authorized promptly. But there's no reason to lose a couple of months, if a transaction is pending, to call a meeting to get this on the books. So, it's simply one more tool. And if there are — anybody that has any questions or comments on the preferred, like I say, you can hold them until later, but I'd be glad to have them before we have the vote. Do we have any? Yeah, there's a question over there. If you'll wait just a second, we'll get a microphone to you. When you ask questions, now or later, if you'll give your name and where you live, I'd appreciate it.

现场股东你好,我是劳伦斯·瓦塞尔医生,来自纽约。我的问题是,如果你想收购一家企业,而对方想要现金,你就得有现金——你知道,得是实实在在的现金。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, my name is Dr. Lawrence Wasser. I'm from New York. My question is this. If you want to buy a business and the people in the business want cash, you have to have cash, cash that — you know, this kind of cash.

沃伦·巴菲特这东西我们不陌生。

WARREN BUFFETTWe're familiar with it.

现场股东对。(笑声和掌声)但我觉得优先股不是真正的现金,它属于法定货币。也就是说,是我们自己可以创造出来的一种货币。

AUDIENCE MEMBERYeah. (Laughter and applause) But it strikes me that the preferred isn't really cash, it's fiat currency. That is, it's currency that we can create.

沃伦·巴菲特没错。从这一点看,它和普通股一样。它是一种——是一种替代性货币形式,但是——就拿普通股来说,假设我们有足够的授权,我们就有无限创造“货币”的能力。当然,如果我们定错了价格,就会稀释旧货币的价值。请继续讲。

WARREN BUFFETTThat's true. It's like common stock in that respect. It is the — it is a form — it is an alternate form of currency, and — but it is — Just in terms of common stock, for example, assuming we had enough authorized, we have an unlimited ability to create currency. Now, if we created the wrong price, it dilutes the value of the old currency. But go ahead on.

现场股东在我们投下赞成票之前——我相信在座各位基于对您的信任,很可能会投赞成票——但在我们投赞成票之前,它并不存在。

AUDIENCE MEMBERUntil we vote in the affirmative, which I'm sure that this group will probably do because of their confidence in you, but until we vote in the affirmative, it doesn't exist.

沃伦·巴菲特完全正确。顺便提一句,普通股也是同理。如果我们已发行的普通股超过了授权数量——我记得我们有 150 万股授权。假设我们已把授权的全部股份都发行出去,在股东追加授权之前,就没有新股份可以再发行了。

WARREN BUFFETTThat is correct. That would be true, incidentally, with common stock. If we had no more authorized common stock out than we had issued, we have, I think, a million and a half authorized. But let's assume that we'd issued all that we had authorized. Until more was authorized by the shareholders, there would — it would not be available to be issued.

现场股东可如果股东追加了授权,那股东原有的持股价值不就稀释了吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERBut if more were authorized by the shareholders then isn't it true that the value of the shareholders' holding would be diluted?

沃伦·巴菲特只有当换回来的价值少于给出去的价值时,才会被稀释。这才是关键。我是说,如果我们发行了价值 2 亿美元的优先股,换回来的企业只值 1.5 亿美元,毫无疑问你的处境就变糟了。顺带提一句,我们也是。但我们所有人都变糟了。用现金也是一个道理,如果我们为一桩生意付出的现金远超它本身的价值,结果也一样。如果我们花 2 亿美元现金买下只值 1.5 亿美元的企业,我们就变糟了。我们可能一股股票都没发。但这样做,也稀释了你手中股票的价值。只要我们是等价交换——无论用的是现金、普通股还是优先股——你的价值就不会被稀释。这一点很重要。显然,有不少公司,正如各位所见——查理和我也在年报和其他地方多次评论过——在我们看来,不少公司发行的普通股,其价值高于他们换回来东西的实际价值。他们这样做,就是在搞我借用瓦乔维亚银行约翰·梅德林所说的“反向传销”。(笑声)这让美国股东蒙受了巨额损失。我觉得在伯克希尔不会给大家造成什么损失。但股东完全有理由为此担忧。因为管理层单靠发行这些在他们看来毫无成本的小纸片,就可以建造一个帝国。我记得查理以前讲过一个这类故事。你想评论几句吗,查理?当然,不提名字。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTOnly if we receive less in value than we give. That's the key to it. I mean, if we issue $200 million worth of preferred and we receive a business that's only worth 150 million, there's no question you're worse off than before. So are we, incidentally. But we're all worse off. The — and that's true if we give cash that's worth more for a business than the business is worth. If we give 200 million of cash for a business that's worth a 150 million, we are worse off. We may not have issued a share of stock. But we have diluted the value of your stock if we do that. As long as we get value received, in terms of whether — of cash, common stock, or preferred stock — then you are not diluted in terms of value. It's an important point. And obviously, a number of companies, as you may have — Charlie and I have commented about in reports and elsewhere — a number of companies, in our opinion, have issued common stock, particularly, which has a value greater than what they receive. And — when they do that, they are running what I — what John Medlin of the Wachovia called a "chain letter in reverse." (Laughter) And that's cost American shareholders a lot of money. I don't think it'll cost them any money at Berkshire. But it's a perfectly valid worry for shareholders to have. Because a management can build an empire just by issuing these little pieces of paper, which they feel don't cost them anything. I think Charlie had one story about that in the past. You want to comment on that, Charlie? No-names basis, of course. (Laughs)

查理·芒格有这么一家银行,里面有个管理人员想要股票期权,就去跟管理层说,他们可以增发这些股票,而且这根本不花一分钱。想一想,竟然雇用一个这样想事情的经理,还要付钱给他——(笑声)——让他在你们中间做出犹大那般行径。

CHARLIE MUNGERThere was a particular bank where one of the officers wanted stock options, pointed out to the management that they could issue all these shares and it didn't cost anything. Now, imagine hiring a manager who thinks that way and paying them money — (laughter) — to behave like Judas in your very midst.

沃伦·巴菲特我们和不少经理人聊过——(笑声)——他们告诉我们,因为股价跌了,能以更低的价格发行期权,他们觉得特别幸运。嗯,如果他们是把期权发给第三方,我不太确定他们是不是还会持完全相同的态度。但我们发行股份时,绝不会觉得自己变得更富了。我们觉得自己变得更富,是在我们换来一家企业的价值至少等于我们发行股份的价值的时候。而且我们也不打算在任何其他情况下发行股份。不过,你们的这个担心完全合理。

WARREN BUFFETTWe have had conversations with managers — (laughter) — where they tell us how fortunate they feel because the stock is down and they can issue options cheaper. Now, if they were issuing those to the third parties, you know, I'm not sure whether they'd have exactly the same attitude. But we have no feeling that we're getting richer when we issue shares. We have a feeling we're getting richer when we get at least as much value in a business as the shares are worth that we issue. And we don't intend to issue them under any other circumstances. But it's a perfectly valid worry.

现场股东问题的第二部分是,很明显,发行优先股的情况下,普通股股东等于排到队尾去了。如果他眼下是排在队伍最前面的,他为什么要主动退到队尾去?

AUDIENCE MEMBERThe second part of the question is that, obviously, with preferred issue, you have a situation where the common shareholder is — moves to the back of the line, as it were. Why should the common shareholder in this room want to step to the back of the line if he's at the front of the line now?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这——不过,如果我们用现金去买一家企业,并且——假设我们是借的钱,那借钱给我们的银行同样会排在普通股股东前面。这一点毫无疑问。任何时候你进行涉及资本结构的交易,都会改变资本结构各个组成部分的潜在风险收益。如果你发行大量普通股而账上又有一些债务,你通常已经改善了那些债务的地位。真正的问题在于,你是否认为通过发行优先股,或者通过大举借款来推动收购,能使普通股股东的地位得到改善。我的意思是,在伯克希尔的历史上,我们有几次是通过借钱买东西、买企业的。每当我们这样做,就是把银行、保险公司或任何其他债权人放在了普通股股东的前面。几年前我们发行了一些债务,就是这么做的。这里需要权衡的是,借钱是否能让普通股股东变得更好。借钱本身未必一定对股东有害——当然,如果借过头了,那显然是有害的。而优先股是一种类似于借来的钱,确实排在普通股股东前面。但与此同时,如果为此发行优先股而并入一家我们认为会对股东有利的企业,那也是同时发生的。所以这就是一个取舍。是的。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it — but it's also true if we buy a business for cash, and we — let's say we borrow the money, the bank that we borrow the money from will come ahead of the common shareholder. There's no question. Any time you move — you engage in transactions that involve the capital structure, you are changing the potential for each part of the capital structure. If you issue a lot of common and you've got some debt outstanding, you've generally improved the position of the debt. And the question really becomes whether you think that the position of the common shareholder is improved by issuing either preferred stock, or perhaps borrowing a lot of money, to make an acquisition. I mean, a couple of times in the history of Berkshire, we've borrowed money to buy something, to buy a business. And when we do that, we are placing a bank, or an insurance company, or whomever, ahead of the position of the common shareholder. We did that when we issued some debt a few years back. And there's a question of weighing whether the common shareholders are going to be better off by borrowing money. But borrowing money is not necessarily at all harmful to shareholders — although certainly, if it's carried to excess, it is. And the preferred is a form of quasi-borrowed money that does rank ahead of the common shareholder. But then, at the same time, we're adding a business which we think is going to benefit the shareholder, if we issue that. So that's the tradeoff. Yeah.

现场股东我叫马特·祖克曼,来自佛罗里达州迈阿密。我的问题是,在我看来,如果可转换优先股——可转换优先股——的发行超过一定限额,似乎需要股东投票。这个限额是多少?

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Matt Zuckerman (PH). I'm from Miami, Florida. My question is, it seems to me that there's some requirement for shareholder votes if convertible stock — preferred stock — is issued beyond a certain limit. What are those limits?

沃伦·巴菲特我们可以设定的转换条款没有限额。但比方说,如果我们打算发行可转换优先股——现在我们没有这样的计划,但有可能发生。事实上,今年就很有可能发生。这——我们会——假定另一种选择是给某人 1 亿美元的现金去买一家企业。如果我们发行一只普通的优先股,我们会去计算,相当于 1 亿美元价值的普通优先股卖出去需要多高的票面利率。这取决于赎回条款之类的事项。但对伯克希尔这种 3A 级信用的公司来说,你知道,大概会在 7% 左右。这样一来,他们就分享不到普通股上行的收益了。如果他们想要的是肯定能保住本金价值的东西,那你得发行一只浮动利率优先股,让它的价值维持在面值附近。那种优先股最初票面利率可能只有 5% 左右,因为它具备随利率涨跌的能力,但始终会值面值附近。如果我们发行可转换优先股,它的转换价格,随便举个数,比如 28,000 美元左右,而票面利率会比普通优先股低得多。所以,不管我们怎么做,在我们眼里,我们给出去的价值都是等价的。我们不会因为交易形式变了,就在原本只愿意付 100% 的 X 时,给付 120% 的 X。不过,你很可能在某个时候看到我们发行——你可能看到我们发行可转换优先股。你可能看到我们发行普通优先股。你可能看到我们发行浮动利率优先股。我希望我们能做成点什么,因为我很想,你知道——

WARREN BUFFETTThere are no limits on the conversion term that we might do. But for example, if we were going to issue a convertible preferred — now we have no plans to do it, but it could happen. In fact, it might well happen this year. The — we would — and the alternative, we'll say, was giving somebody a hundred million dollars in cash for a business. If we were to issue a straight preferred, we would figure out what a hundred million dollars' worth of a straight preferred would sell for, what coupon would be necessary. And that would depend on call provisions and a few things. But for a triple-A credit like Berkshire, you know, it would be somewhere in the area of 7 percent or thereabouts. And then they would have no participation in the upside of the common. If they wanted something that was sure to maintain its principal value, then you have to issue an adjustable-rate preferred that will keep its value around par. That preferred might have an initial coupon of, say, 5 percent or something of the sort, because it has the ability to go up or down based on interest rates. But it would always be worth about par. If we were to issue a convertible preferred, it might have a conversion price of, just to pick a figure, 28,000 or something of the sort, and a coupon well below the coupon on a straight preferred. And so, whatever we did, they would equate out in our mind as to the value we were giving. We're not going to give 120 percent of X if we're only willing to pay a hundred percent of X, just because the form of a deal changes. But you may well see us issue, at some point — you may see us issue a convertible preferred. You may see us issue a straight preferred. You may see us issue an adjustable-rate preferred. I hope we do something because I’d like, you know —

现场股东嗯。基于——

AUDIENCE MEMBERYeah. Based on —

沃伦·巴菲特如果我们做了,我们一定会认为这对我们更有利。

WARREN BUFFETTIf we do it, we'll think we're better off.

现场股东嗯,以你过往的业绩来看,我相信你得到的价值一定会大于你付出的。

AUDIENCE MEMBERWell, based on your past performance, I'm sure you'll get more value than you give.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。

WARREN BUFFETTWell.

现场股东但不管怎样,我的理解是,如果一项可转换证券在转换时所需发行的股份数量,超过了已发行在外股份总数的 20%,那么根据特拉华州法律,就需要股东投票。我可能理解错了。

AUDIENCE MEMBERBut in any case, it was my understanding that if the amount of shares issued for a conversion of a convertible issue were greater than 20 percent of the total amount of shares outstanding, then it would require a vote of the stockholders, under Delaware law. I may be wrong.

沃伦·巴菲特我想这是交易所的规定,不是吗,查理?

WARREN BUFFETTI think it's a stock exchange rule, isn't it, Charlie?

查理·芒格是的。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes.

沃伦·巴菲特你对那条规定说得很对,不过——

WARREN BUFFETTYou're right about the rule, but —

查理·芒格这是纽约证券交易所的规定。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's a New York Stock Exchange rule.

沃伦·巴菲特这是纽约证券交易所的规定。那对应的是 50 亿美元以上的交易。而且,你知道,我们当然很乐意做一笔 50 亿美元的交易,但我觉得我们做不了。所以我想说,任何收购大到需要股东投票的可能性大概微乎其微。但这并不是因为我们不感兴趣。(笑声)而且,你知道,如果我们真做成一笔大交易,我们会回来找你们的——(笑声)——那时我们手上早把票都准备好了。(笑声和掌声)还有其他关于优先股的问题吗?我们后面也可以再多聊一些。我只是想——哦,这里有一位。请讲。

WARREN BUFFETTIt's a New York Stock Exchange rule. That would be $5 billion-plus of deal. And, you know, we would love to make a $5 billion deal, but I don't think we're going to do it. So I would say that the chances of any acquisition being large enough so that it requires a shareholder vote is probably slim. But it isn't because we wouldn't be interested. (Laughter) And you know, if we have one, we'll be coming back to you — (laughter) — with the votes already in hand. (Laughter and applause) Are there any other questions on the preferred? We can talk more about it later, too. I just want to — oh, here we are. Sure.

现场股东早上好,巴菲特先生。

AUDIENCE MEMBERGood morning, Mr. Buffett.

沃伦·巴菲特早上好。

WARREN BUFFETTMorning.

现场股东我叫蕾娜·迪·科斯蒂洛伊(音),来自芝加哥。很荣幸能来到这里。我看到你们发展得这么壮大,很快我们就得去足球场开股东大会了。(笑声)我觉得你的解释很有帮助。因为我看这份材料的时候——我相信很多其他外行股东也一样——没搞懂你在——

AUDIENCE MEMBERI'm Raina Di Costiloy (PH) from Chicago. I'm very proud to be here. And I've seen you grow so, that pretty soon we're going to be out in a football field. (Laughter) I think your explanation was very helpful. Because as I read this, and I'm sure many of the other lay folk, I didn't understand what you —

沃伦·巴菲特(听不清)

WARREN BUFFETT(Inaudible)

蕾娜·迪·科斯蒂洛伊——你在做什么。你提到了优先股。但在招股说明书里,没说清楚到底是可转换优先股,还是普通的不可转换优先股。你刚才在回答其他问题时澄清了这一点,但有些人觉得这会稀释他们的股票。

RAYNA DI COSTILOY— what you were doing. And you mentioned the preferred stock. But in the prospectus, it's not clear whether it would be the convertible preferred, the straight preferred. And you cleared that, answering a few other questions, but some of the people felt it would dilute their stock.

沃伦·巴菲特是。我应该在年报里把这一点说清楚的。很高兴今天有机会说明白。关于优先股还有其他问题吗?好的。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, I should've made that clear in the annual report. And I'm glad I've had this chance to do it today. Anything else on the preferred? OK.

现场股东在这些股份获得授权之后,你不需要再回来征求股东投票决定具体的条款。你在谈到收购公司时也提到了这一点。我的问题是,你本人通过伯克希尔·哈撒韦持有好几家公司的优先股:所罗门兄弟、全美航空、美国运通。你买入这些优先股时,那些公司的股东需要就这些优先股的条款进行投票吗?还是说,这事留在董事会层面就可以决定了。

AUDIENCE MEMBERYou don't have to come back to the shareholders for a vote, after these shares are authorized, for the terms of it. And you've discussed this in terms of buying companies. My question is, you yourself, through Berkshire Hathaway, own the preferred shares of several companies: Salomon, USAir, American Express. Do those shareholders have to vote on the terms of the preferred shares that you bought for those companies? Or is that left at the board of directors' decision level.

沃伦·巴菲特这些——

WARREN BUFFETTThose —

现场股东你能澄清一下这一点吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERCould you clarify that point?

沃伦·巴菲特请——不好意思,请继续。

WARREN BUFFETTGo — excuse me, go ahead.

现场股东你能澄清一下这一点吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERCould you clarify that point, please?

沃伦·巴菲特好。我们买过——我想我们大概直接从公司那里买了六次优先股。由于这些交易没有一次触发了我们刚才讨论的纽约证券交易所的规定——要是规模再大一些,是有可能触发的,但事实是没有——所以这些交易都不需要股东批准。我想我们跟公司做的交易里,唯一一次需要股东批准的是我们买入大都会/美国广播公司股票的那次。我们是在 1986 年初买的。我想他们的股东是在 1985 年批准的。只有在触发纽约证券交易所规定的情况下,才需要股东批准。而我们的买入规模没大到触发那个规定。还有其他问题吗?嗯,还有一个。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We bought a — I think we've probably bought six issues of preferred directly from companies. And since none of those triggered that New York Stock Exchange rule that we discussed earlier — and they could've if they'd been somewhat larger, but they didn't — none of those deals had to be approved by the shareholders. I think the only deal we've had with a company that had to be approved by the shareholders was when we bought the Cap Cities/ABC stock. Well, we bought early in 1986. I think it was approved by their shareholders in 1985. But the only situations where it would've had to have been approved is if it triggered the New York Stock Exchange rule. And our purchases were not that large that they did that. Any other questions? Yeah, there's one more.

现场股东我叫戴尔·沃卡维茨(音),来自伊利诺伊州尚佩恩。《巴伦周刊》最近一期有文章说,有可能发行一种“集所有优点于一身的”优先股:对发行人来说,股息看起来像利息,可以税前扣除;对购买者来说,又能满足股息抵免的条件。你觉得用这些股份能做出这种结构吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Dale Vocawitz (PH). I'm from Champagne, Illinois. A recent issue of Barron's indicated that it may be possible to issue a best of all possible worlds preferred, that being one where the dividend looks like interest to the issuer and is tax-deductible. And to the purchaser, it would qualify for the dividends received deduction. Do you think that structure might be possible with these shares?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这个我们没想过。我知道你指的是什么,但我觉得不太可能行得通。首先,我觉得你大概没法通过那种方式搞成免税交易。查理,你说呢?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we haven't thought about that. I know what you're talking about on that, but I don't think it would be possible. For one thing, I don't think you probably have a tax-free deal that way. Charlie, do you?

查理·芒格我们大概不会费心去耍那种小聪明。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWe probably wouldn't try and be that cute. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特我心里有几句话想说,但想想还是忍住吧。(笑声)我猜那种形式长期来看行不通。我知道你说的是什么,但我估计它不行。有些公司——然后我们就此打住——有些公司很在意他们在交易中付出的对价形式,是现金、优先股还是其他什么,因为他们在意拿到手的会计处理结果。他们想——通常他们都希望采用权益结合法,而不是购买法。我就不在这儿展开讲了。我知道这会让大家失望,但我就不在这儿细说了。不过我可能会在下一年年报里谈一谈。这一点对我们来说完全无关紧要。我们丝毫不在乎我们拿到什么样的会计处理结果。我们认为我们的股东群体足够聪明,能够理解交易的经济实质。而通过玩各种花样,比如在交易结构上做文章,设法把一部分收购价款绕回到利润表里,或者搞类似的名堂——确实有人这么做——这不是我们关心的事。我们宁可做对买卖双方都最有利的安排,然后向你们解释清楚这笔交易可能产生哪些会计上的特殊之处。这大概就是我们和大多数公司不一样的地方,偶尔也能帮我们做成交易。还有别的问题吗?

WARREN BUFFETTI've got several quips in mind, but I think I'll keep them to myself. (Laughter) My guess is that that form does not work for a long time. I know what you're talking about on it, but my guess is it doesn't. Some companies — then we'll get on with this — but some companies care about the consideration they give in a deal, whether it's cash, or preferred, or so on, because they care about the accounting treatment that they get. They want — they usually want pooling treatment rather than purchase accounting treatment. I won't get into that here. I know it's going to disappoint you, but I won't get into that here. Although I may in the next annual report. And that is of absolutely no consequence to us. We care not a wit about the accounting treatment that we receive. We feel that we have a shareholder body that's intelligent enough to understand the economic reality of a transaction. And that by playing various games, in terms of how we try to structure it, and maybe flow part of the purchase price back through the income statement or anything of the sort, which is done — that's not something that we care about at all. We would rather do whatever makes the most sense for us and for the seller, and then explain to you whatever accounting peculiarities may arise out of the transaction. And that probably differentiates us from most companies. And it probably helps us make a deal, occasionally. Anything else?

现场股东——真的

AUDIENCE MEMBER— really

沃伦·巴菲特好,现在我听得很清楚了。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, now I can hear you fine.

戴尔·沃卡维茨好。我想请问,如果有股东因种种原因觉得优先股更合意,他们是否有机会参与进来?

DALE VOCAWITZOK. And I was wondering, will there be any opportunity for shareholders who may find the preferred issue preferable, for any number of reasons, to participate in that?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,如果我们发行优先股且它交易活跃——假设公司股东人数众多而不是寥寥几个——那么显然,任何新股东或现有股东都可以自行决定他们是否更偏好这只证券。我们可以——但目前没有这个计划,我也看不到它会发生——提供用优先股交换现有普通股。可以想象会有少数人感兴趣,但——多数人在选择持有伯克希尔普通股时,就已经自我选择了他们想持有的证券类型。所以他们不太可能想换成优先股,因为——我们不会给出价值溢价,它只是一种替代证券。不过我们完全可以这么做。我的意思是,而且很可能是一笔免税交易。我们没有这个计划,但如果有一天我们认为有足够多的人想要,我们可以提供交换。但没人会被强制接受。这是个好问题。好了,我们继续。有没有人动议通过董事会的建议?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, if we issued a preferred and it became actively traded — let's say it was a company with many shareholders instead of a few. Obviously, that would be something that any new or present shareholder could make a decision on whether they preferred that issue than others. We could, but have no plans of doing it and I don't see it happening, we could offer to exchange preferred for present common. And it's conceivable a few people would have an interest, but the — most people have self-selected in terms of the kind of security they want to own in terms of owning Berkshire common. So it's unlikely they would want to switch into a preferred, because they would — we wouldn't have a premium of value, it would just be an alternative security. We could do that, though. I mean, and it would probably be a tax-free deal. We have no plans of doing that, but it's something that if we ever thought that enough people might want, we could offer it. But no one would be obliged to take it. It's a good question. OK? We'll move on. Is there a motion to adopt the board of directors' recommendation?

沃尔特·斯科特 Jr.我动议通过公司章程第四条修正案,内容如本次股东大会公司代理声明附件 A 所述。

WALTER SCOTT JR.I move the adoption of the amendment to the fourth article of the certificate of corporation as set forth in exhibit A of the company's proxy statement for this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?

WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?

现场人士我附议。

VOICEI second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特通过公司章程拟议修正案的动议已提出并获附议。还有进一步讨论吗?我们准备就动议进行表决。如有亲自到场的股东,请现在在关于公司章程拟议修正案的选票上做出标记,并将选票交给选举监察官。有几份正在收过来。也请代理投票人将选票交给选举监察官,依照他们所收到的指示对拟议修正案行使代理投票权。我们稍等片刻。菲茨西蒙斯先生,你准备好后就可以做报告了。

WARREN BUFFETTMotion's been made and seconded to adopt the proposed amendment to certificate of incorporation. Any further discussion? We are ready to act upon the motion. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballot on the proposed amendment to the certificate of incorporation and allow the ballots to be delivered to the inspector of election. Collecting a few there. Would the proxy holders please also submit to the inspector of elections a ballot on the proposed amendment voting the proxies in accordance with the instructions they have received? We'll wait just a second here. Mr. Fitzsimmons, when you're ready you may give your report.

罗伯特·菲茨西蒙斯我的报告准备好了。截至上周五收到的代理投票人选票,投了——赞成公司章程拟议修正案的票数不少于 928,889 票。这一数字远超全部流通股总数的半数。特拉华州法律要求的精确计票证明,包括本次会议现场投票的票数,将交给秘书归入本次会议的会议记录。

ROBERT FITZSIMMONSMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders received through last Friday cast lot — not less than 928,889 in favor of the proposed amendment to the certificate of incorporation. That number far exceeds the majority of the number of all shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law regarding the precise count of the votes, including the votes cast in person at this meeting, will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,菲茨西蒙斯先生。本次股东大会代理声明附件 A 所述的公司章程修正案获得通过。在事务会议休会后,我将回答各位提出的与伯克希尔业务有关、但无需在本次会议上采取行动的问题。休会前,还有没有人有需要提交给本次会议的其他事项?如果没有,我请小沃尔特·斯科特向会议提出一项动议。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Mr. Fitzsimmons. The amendment to the certificate of incorporation as set forth in exhibit A to the proxy statement for this meeting is approved. After adjournment of the business meeting, I will respond to questions that you may have that relate to the businesses of Berkshire, but do not call for any action at this meeting. Does anyone have any further business to come before this meeting before we adjourn? If not, I recognize Walter Scott Jr. to place a motion before the meeting.

小沃尔特·斯科特我动议休会。

WALTER SCOTT JR.I move this meeting be adjourned.

现场人士我附议。

VOICEI second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特休会动议已提出并获附议。我们将进行口头表决。有讨论吗?没有的话,赞成者请说“赞成”。

WARREN BUFFETTMotion to adjourn has been made and seconded. We will vote by voice. Any discussion? If not, all in favor say, "Aye."

现场赞成。

AUDIENCEAye.

沃伦·巴菲特反对者请说“反对”。会议休会。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTAll opposed say, "No." The meeting is adjourned. (Laughter)

收购赫兹伯格钻石(Helzberg's Diamonds)

Helzberg’s Diamonds acquisition

沃伦·巴菲特现在,我想告诉你们一件事——年报之后——你们有些人可能已在报纸上读到,但也许不是所有人都听说过。就在年报发布后不久,我们与 Helzberg 钻石公司完成了交易,是与 Barnett Helzberg 一起,他今天也在这儿。Barnett,请站起来好吗?好的。就是他。给他鼓掌。(掌声)你们可能想知道这事是怎么发生的,因为 Barnett 参加了最近三次伯克希尔股东大会中的两次。他在一个 IRA 账户里有一些股份,去年也来了。这次会开完后不久,我在纽约市。当时我正穿过 58 街,就在第五大道广场酒店附近。一个女人说,“巴菲特先生,”我转过身来。她走上前,说她去年参加了股东大会——或者说几天前——说她很享受。我说,“那太好了,”然后我又准备过马路。Barnett 当时大概在 30 或 40 英尺远。我不认识他,他听到了这个女人的话。于是他也说了同样的话。我转过身。我们握了手。这是我第一次见他,他说,“你知道,”他说,“我可能有一家你感兴趣的企业。”我经常听到这种话,所以——(笑声)于是我说,“嗯,你为什么不写信给我?”过了一段时间,我收到了 Barnett 的一封信。他一直在考虑对他父亲 1950 年创办、一直以堪萨斯城为基地的企业做点什么。他探索过各种途径。但可能,部分是因为他作为伯克希尔股东的背景,他对公司加入伯克希尔有特别的兴趣。他非常在意公司有一个永久的归宿。他非常在意它有一个可以成长、自主运营、并以堪萨斯城为基地的环境。他想得到一些交换物——能让他余生都乐于持有。所以,就在年报付印后不久,我们很快就谈成了交易。所以现在,伯克希尔从昨天凌晨 12 点 01 分,我猜,交易就完成了。由于哈特-斯科特-罗迪诺法案和其他一些规定,有一个等待期。交易完成了。现在伯克希尔是 Helzberg 钻石公司的所有者,这家公司大约有 150 家门店,分布在大概 26 或 27 个州。我不确定确切数字。大多在购物中心里,也有一些在其他地方。公司一直非常成功。Barnett 引进了 Jeff Comment,他大概八年前曾经营过 Wanamaker's,我猜。公司既在传统模式上扩张——近期也推出了新模式,非常成功。在珠宝行业的地位上,它通常与 Zales 或 Gordon's 竞争,但做得远远更好。他们的单店销售额,在相近的营业面积上,几乎是竞争对手的两倍。公司拥有极好的士气和组织架构。而员工们——Barnett 在出售时对员工非常慷慨。他自己掏钱善待员工,因为他们多年来干得非常出色。我想你们会看到 Helzberg 随着时间的推移成为伯克希尔的一个非常重要的因素。这正好说明股东大会能带来什么。所以你们其他人,知道该怎么做吧。(笑声)总之,这次收购主要是用普通股进行的。没有涉及优先股,因为——Barnett 更偏好普通股。但——不同人有不同需要。有时一群股东会有不同的优先考虑。这就是为什么我们想拥有多种货币。如果我们不能用普通股,这笔交易就做不成,因为 Barnett 不急着给政府开一张大额支票。而用普通股交易,我们可以在那方面帮上忙。不管怎样,我们很高兴 Helzberg 成为伯克希尔的一部分。下次开会之前,如果明年我们还有一两个其他公告,我也不会感到惊讶。我希望如此。但也不能保证。

WARREN BUFFETTNow, I'd like to tell you about one thing that — since the annual report — that some of you probably read about in the papers, but maybe not all of you have heard about. Just shortly after the annual report was issued, we completed a transaction with Helzberg's Diamonds, with Barnett Helzberg, who's here today. Barnett, would you stand up, please? All right. There he is. Give him a hand. (Applause) You may be interested in how it came about, because Barnett attended two of the last three meetings of Berkshire. He had a few shares in an IRA account, and he was here last year. And shortly after this meeting, I was back in New York City. And I was crossing the street at 58th Street, right near the Plaza Hotel on 5th Avenue. And a woman said, "Mr. Buffett," and I turned around. And she came up, and she said she'd attended the annual meeting last year — or a few days ago — and said that she enjoyed it. And I said, "That's terrific," and I started to cross again. And Barnett had been about 30 or 40 feet away. I didn't know him, and he had heard this woman. So, he said the same thing. And I turned around. And we shook hands. First time I'd met him, and he said, "You know," he said, "I might have a business you'd be interested in." And I get that all the time, so — (Laughter) So I said, "Well, why don't you write me?" And a time went by, and I got a letter from Barnett. And he'd been thinking about doing something with the business his father had started in 1950, and based in Kansas City that whole time. And he'd been exploring various avenues. But probably, in some part because of his background as Berkshire shareholder, he had some specific interest in the company becoming associated with Berkshire. He cared very much about the company having a permanent home. He cared very much about it having an environment in which it could grow and be run autonomously and be based in Kansas City. And he wanted to receive something in exchange — that he was happy to own for the rest of his life. And so, we worked out a transaction shortly — just very shortly after the annual report went to press. And so now Berkshire, as of 12:01, I guess, yesterday morning, the deal closed. There's this waiting period because of the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act and a few other things. The transaction closed. And now Berkshire is the owner of Helzberg's Diamonds, which has roughly 150 stores around, perhaps, 26 or 27 states. I'm not sure the exact number. And mostly in malls, although some others. It's been enormously successful. Barnett brought in Jeff Comment, who formerly ran Wanamaker's about eight years ago, I guess it is. And the company has both expanded in its traditional format — it's gone with a new format recently, which has been very successful. It is — in its position in the jewelry industry, it tends to compete with a Zales or Gordon’s, but it does a far, far better job. Their sales, per store, on roughly equivalent square footage, will be very close to double what competitors achieve. It's got a magnificent morale, and organizational structure. And the people — Barnett was very generous with people in making the sale. He took it out of his own pocket to treat people right because they'd done such a terrific job over the years. And I think you'll see Helzberg's become a very big factor in Berkshire over time. And it just shows you what can come out of these annual meetings. So, the rest of you, you know, do your stuff. (Laughter) So anyway, that is an acquisition that was made for — largely for common stock. It did not involve preferred, and — because Barnett preferred common. And — but different people have different needs. And sometimes there's a group of shareholders that can have different priorities. And that's the reason we want to have various currencies. If we had not been able to use common stock, we would not have made this transaction, because Barnett has been in no hurry to write a large check to the government. And we can help him in that respect with a common stock deal. So anyway, we're glad to have Helzberg's become part of Berkshire. I wouldn't be surprised if we have another announcement or two in the next year before we have the next meeting. I hope so. But there's no guarantees.

董事会里有巴菲特家族成员增加稳定性

Buffetts on the board adds stability

沃伦·巴菲特现在我们开始进入问答环节。流程跟往年一样。我们把大厅分成六个区域。如果你举手,你所在区域的监票员会看到你。然后我们轮流来。在每个区域,我们会先让还没提问过的人提问,等所有人都问过第一轮,才会轮到同一个人问第二个问题。另外,我们在隔壁厅还有一个区域,所以总共七个区。我们就这么轮流,请你报一下名字。我们很乐意回答你的问题。问题越多越好。那么,从第一区开始。

WARREN BUFFETTNow we're going to turn the meeting open for questions. We'll do it as we've done before. We've got this room divided into six zones. And if you will raise your hand, the monitor in that — in your zone will recognize you. And we'll keep going around. We will not go to a second person in any zone until we've exhausted all those who have yet to ask their first question. We have — we also have a zone in the overflow room. So, there'll be a total of seven. And we'll just keep going around, if you'll identify yourself, please. And we'll be delighted to answer your questions. And the more, the better. So, we'll start with zone 1.

现场股东我叫弗雷德·埃尔费尔(小),来自加州萨克拉门托。我想问您能否详细解释一下,把两名家族成员加入董事会的逻辑?

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Fred Elfell Jr. (PH) from Sacramento, California. And I wanted to ask if you could elaborate upon the logic of adding two family members to the board of trustees?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,首先,这对家庭和谐非常有利。(笑声)我在年报里也谈过——如果我今晚去世了,你知道,我的股票会留给我的妻子,她是董事会成员。她会一直持有这些股票到她去世,然后股票会捐给一家基金会。所以,我们希望在规划和税法允许的范围内,尽可能建立一个长期且稳定的所有权结构。我是说,我们邀请过像海兹伯格这样的公司加入伯克希尔,我们认为这对他们来说是一种特别有利的方式,既能经营生意,又能清楚自己加入的是什么样一个未来。而了解未来的一部分,就是知道所有权是稳定的。在伯克希尔,所有权会稳定很长时间,可能比这世上任何人能规划的都长。我去世后,家族不会参与公司管理,但会参与公司所有权。基金会那里会形成一个非常集中的大额持股,他们会非常关心建立最好的管理架构。实际上,为了随着时间的推移做好准备,我认为让不参与管理、但会和关键所有权角色有关系的家族成员,越来越熟悉公司生意和背后的理念,是非常明智的做法。我在——我想是 1993 年的年报里,讨论过这一点,因为我认为你们理解这个很重要。任何人想卖公司给我们——如果你从 1915 年就开始经营一家企业,你非常在乎它,在乎你培养起来的员工,但你人生中还有别的想做的事,那么这不仅仅像是在报纸上登广告卖车。我是说,这对你来说是件很重要的事——一笔非常重大的交易。不光是你拿到多少钱,还在于你把多少千个跟着你的人——你把他们都交到了谁手里。我认为我们有一个几乎是最好的架构。没有什么是永恒的。但我们在让人们在跟我们做交易时知道自己进入的是什么地方,并且能指望交易时的条件在未来很长一段时间内延续,这方面,我们做到了几乎最好。很多人——前几天有个人跟我说,有家公司被收购方追逐。你知道,交易完成的第二天,他们就进来把前六个高管全开了。他们从一开始就有秘密计划。好吧,我觉得这种事不太会遇到。但你真正会遇到的是,收购公司本身,要么自己被收购了,要么来了新管理层,要么来了新管理顾问,说:“哎呀,这不符合我们的战略规划了,把这个部门甩了吧。”而跟伯克希尔合作的人,我觉得可以相对放心,类似的事情不会发生。查理,你想补充吗——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it's terrific for family harmony, just to start with. (Laughter) The — as I've talked about in the annual report, the — if I die tonight, you know, my stock goes to my wife, who is a member of the board of directors. And she will own that stock until her death, when it will go to a foundation. So, there is a desire to have as long a term and permanent ownership structure as can really be done, in terms of planning, and the tax laws, and so on. I mean, I — we have invited people like Helzberg's to join in with Berkshire into what we think is a particularly advantageous way for them to conduct a business and to know the future that they're joining. And part of knowing the future that they're joining involves knowing that the ownership is stable. And it will be stable for a very long period of time in Berkshire, probably about as long as you can — anybody can plan for in this world. After my death, the family would not be involved in the management of the business, but they'd be involved in the ownership of the business. And you would have a very large concentrated ownership position, going well on into the foundation, that would care very much about having the best management structure in place. And to, in effect, prepare for that over time, I think it's very advisable that family members who will not be involved in management, but who will have a key ownership role to play, become more and more familiar with the business and the philosophy behind it. I discussed that some in the — I guess, it was the 1993 annual report, because I think it's important that you understand. And anybody that wants to sell us a business — if you've built a business since 1915, and you care enormously about it, and you care about the people that you've developed, but you've got something else you want to do in life, it's more than, you know, advertising your car in the paper to sell it. I mean, it is an important — a very important transaction to you. Not just in terms of how much money you receive, but in terms of who you deliver thousands of people that have joined you — who you deliver them to. And I think we have a structure that is about as good as you can do. Nothing is forever. But we have a structure that's about as good as you can do, in terms of people knowing what they're getting into when they make a deal with us and being able to count on the conditions that prevail at the time of the deal, continuing for a long period in the future. Many people — I had a fellow tell me the other day about a business where he'd been wooed by the acquirer. And, you know, the day after the deal, they came in and fired the top half-dozen people. They had a secret plan all along. Well, I don't think you run into much of that. But what you do run into is the company that's the acquiring company, itself, either being acquired or some new management coming along, or some new management consultant coming along, and saying, "Well, this doesn't fit our strategic plan anymore, so let's dump this division." And people that join in with Berkshire can be relatively, I think, comfortable about nothing like that happening. Charlie, you want to elaborate on —

查理·芒格不。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERNo. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特我还指望查理今早能体验一把‘活着’的感觉呢。(笑声)继续鼓励他。

WARREN BUFFETTI was hoping Charlie would have a near-life experience this morning. (Laughter) Keep encouraging him.

不对柯克瑞安收购克莱斯勒的报价置评

No comment on Kerkorian's Chrysler bid

沃伦·巴菲特第二区。

WARREN BUFFETTZone 2.

现场股东你好。我叫吉姆·利希提,来自得梅因。我对克莱斯勒比较感兴趣。你能对克莱斯勒公司发表一下看法吗?(笑声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERHello. My name is Jim Lichty (PH) from Des Moines. I'm interested in, like, Chrysler. Can you make a comment on the Chrysler Corporation? (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特不,我想我不能对克莱斯勒发表评论。(笑声)顺便提一下,我所罗门兄弟公司被他们聘为了顾问。我们跟这事没关系。查理和我——我是从报纸上看到的。查理和我通常不熟悉所罗门那边的投资银行业务安排。但报纸上说所罗门参与了。我们不参与。查理,你不想回答这个问题吗?不回答?(笑声)换别的问题问他。

WARREN BUFFETTNo, I don't think I can make a comment on Chrysler. (Laughter) I think Salomon Brothers, incidentally, has been retained by them. We have nothing to do with it. Charlie and I — I read that in the paper. And Charlie and I are not familiar with — normally — with investment banking arrangements at Salomon. But it has been in the paper that Salomon's involved with that. We have no involvement. Charlie, you're not interested in commenting on the question? No? (Laughter) Try him on something else.

经理人需要知道“钱是有成本的”

Managers need to know "money costs money"

沃伦·巴菲特第三区。

WARREN BUFFETTZone 3.

现场股东我是吉姆·瓦达曼,来自密西西比州杰克逊市。在描述你对全资子公司的资本配置时,你在年报中写道,引用原话,“对经理人使用的增量资本收取高利率,对他们释放出来的资本同样按高利率记入贷方”,引用结束。这个高利率你如何确定?他们又怎么确定自己能释放多少资本?

AUDIENCE MEMBERI'm Jim Vardaman (PH) from Jackson, Mississippi. In describing the — your allocation of capital to your wholly-owned subsidiaries, you wrote in the annual report that, quote, you "charge managers a high rate for incremental capital they employ and credit them at an equally high rate for capital they release," end quote. How do you determine this high rate, and how do they determine how much capital they can release?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们跟经理人的激励安排或其他情况下,要么向全资子公司提供资金,要么抽回资金——这通常和薪酬计划挂钩。我们想做的就是让经理人明白我们有多么看重资本。我们觉得,没什么比向他们收费更能创造理解。所以,我们有不同的安排。有时候会基于公司历史。有时会基于行业情况。有时基于我们最初制定方案时的利率。我们根据这些变量(也可能还有其他因素,甚至只是我们那天制定方案时的心情)制定安排,范围在 14% 到 20% 之间,针对的是提供的资本。有时候,如果一个生意是季节性的,一年里有几个月有季节性资金需求,我们会以 LIBOR 的极低利率提供资金。但如果他们超出这个范围使用更多资本,我们就会开始说:“好了,那是永久性资本了。”所以我们收的钱就高得多。现在,如果我们收购了一家使用两三亿美元资本的企业,我们制定了一个奖金方案,然后经理人找到办法用更少的资本来做生意,我们可能会按一个非常高的利率记入他的贷方——跟收费时用的利率一样——体现在他的奖金方案里。所以,我们坚信经理人要知道钱是有成本的。我要说,大致而言,我经商的经验是,大多数经理人用自己的钱时,都明白钱是有成本的。但有时经理人用别人的钱时,会开始觉得它有点像免费的钱。这是我们在伯克希尔不想鼓励的习惯。我们通过给资本设置这些利率,是在告诉经营我们业务的人,资本对我们值多少钱。我认为这对他们做决策是一个有用的指引,因为我们很少对我们的运营公司做决策。我们做的决策非常非常少。在大多数情况下,我看不到我们 100% 控股子公司的资本预算。如果我看不到,那就没人能看到。我是说,总部没有员工来审查这类东西。我们给了他们很大的责任。但我们确实想让他们知道我们如何衡量资本的使用。到目前为止,我要说,这确实运作得相当好。我们的经理人不介意被衡量,而且他们喜欢看到——我觉得他们喜欢看到自己的‘打击率’被公布出来。一个不包含资本成本的打击率,是虚假的打击率。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, what we try to do with those — the question's about incentive arrangements we have with managers or other situations, where we either advance capital to a wholly-owned subsidiary or withdraw it — usually, that ties in with the compensation plan. And we want our managers to understand just how highly we do value capital. And we feel there's nothing that creates a better understanding than to charge them for it. So, we have different arrangements. Sometimes it's based a little on the history of the company. It may be based a little bit on the industry. It may be based on interest rates at the time that we first draw it up. We have arrangements depending on the — on those variables and perhaps some others and perhaps just, you know, how we felt the day we drew it up, that range between 14 percent and 20 percent, in terms of capital advanced. And sometimes we have an arrangement where, if it's a seasonal business where, for a few months of the year, when they have a seasonal requirement, we give it to them very cheap at LIBOR. But, if they use more capital over — beyond that, we start saying, "Well, that's permanent capital," so we charge them considerably more. Now, if we buy a business that's using a couple hundred million of capital, and we work out a bonus arrangement, and the manager figures out a way to do the business with less capital, we may credit him at a very high rate — same rate we would use in charging him — in terms of his bonus arrangement. So, we believe in managers knowing that money costs money. And I would say that, just generally, my experience in business is that most managers, when using their own money, understand that money costs money. But sometimes managers, when using other people's money, start thinking of it a little bit like free money. And that's a habit we don't want to encourage around Berkshire. We — by sticking these rates on capital, we are telling the people who run our business how much capital is worth to us. And I think that's a useful guideline, in terms of the decisions they're making, because we don't make very many decisions about our operating business. We make very, very few. I don't see capital budgets, in most cases, from our hundred percent-owned subsidiaries. And if I don't see them, no one else sees them. I mean, we have no staff at headquarters looking at this kind of thing. We give them great responsibility on it. But we do want them to know how we calibrate the use of capital. And so far, I would say, it's really worked quite well. Our managers don't mind being measured, and they like getting a — I think they enjoy seeing a batting average posted. And a batting average that does not include a cost of capital is a phony batting average. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我当然同意。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I certainly agree. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特而且他姓的还不是巴菲特。我是说——(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTAnd his name isn't even Buffett. I mean — (Laughter)

购买保险的两个理由

The two reasons for buying insurance

沃伦·巴菲特第四区。

WARREN BUFFETTZone 4.

现场股东嗨,我叫戴夫·兰卡森,来自《商业保险》杂志。许多财产-意外险风险管理专家建议商业保险买家与其财产-意外险保险公司签订五年或十年的保单,以促进与保险公司更牢固的伙伴关系,并维持过去七八年平稳的 PC 市场。您认为这个想法会被大多数保单持有人接受吗?如果会,对保单持有人的成本和保险公司的承保结果会有什么影响?

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, my name's Dave Lancasam (PH) with Business Insurance Magazine. The sum of property-casualty risk management experts are advising commercial insurance buyers to forge five- and 10-year policies with their property-casualty insurers to promote stronger partnerships with their insurers, as well as to maintain the smooth PC market of the past seven, eight years. Do you believe this idea will take hold for most policyholders? And if so, what would be the implications for policyholders’ costs and insurers’ underwriting results?

沃伦·巴菲特这个问题问的是商业投保人与保险公司之间的合作模式。有很多方式可以实现这种合作,比如各种追溯性计划、不同形式的可调节费率、自留额等安排。大体上说,买保险只有两个原因。一个是保护自己免受无法承受或不愿承担的损失。这在一定程度上是客观决定,也有一部分是主观因素。比如说,一位经理人非常担心,如果公司发生了没有投保的损失,董事会可能会事后质疑他,那他买的保险很可能会比公司实际需要的多得多。但他知道,自己永远不必走到董事会面前说,“我们刚发生了一百万美元的火灾损失。”然后董事问的下一个问题就是,“保险保了吗?”他可不想回答说没有。所以,他可能会做从公司角度看非常不明智的事,只是为了保护自己的位置。但买保险的理由,无论是寿险、财产意外险、个人保险还是商业保险,都是保护你免受自己不愿意或无法承担的损失。或者第二个原因,偶尔会出现的情况是,如果你认为保险公司实际上是在卖给你一份过分便宜的保单,因此你预期在一段时间内通过买保险能获得数学上的优势。我们努力避免卖出第二种保险,并集中精力卖出第一种。我们认为,任何我们能向其卖出保险的公司——当然,我们卖出的很多保险是卖给其他保险公司的。我的意思是,我们在很大程度上是一家再保险公司。我们向他们出售保险,以防止他们无法承受或不愿承担的损失。一个典型的案例可能是,一家公司在加州有很多房主保单。如果这些保单包含地震险,那么他们可能无法承受可能发生的损失水平,即使他们想在加州维持一个面向房主进行大规模销售的渠道体系。所以,我们会签发一份保单。他们可能承担前 500 万或前 5000 万美元的损失——取决于他们自身的能力——然后他们会来找我们。我们在处理那些公司自身无法承受、也找不到其他人投保的问题上,具有独一无二的能力。但我们并不想为承保自己能负担得起的损失的人提供保险,因为如果我们这么做,可能因为他们很傻。但也可能是因为他们的预期损失高于我们收取的保费,这不是我们在生意上想做的。我认为,与 30 年前相比,公司的风险经理在购买保险方面可能更聪明了。我认为这已经变成——我认为他们更成熟,考虑得更周全了。但还是有很多保险——有一些——相当一部分保险买得毫无意义。也有一部分本该买的保险没有被购买。在美国,某些公司正在暴露自己于可能使其破产的损失之下。他们宁愿不买再保险,因为,所谓“太贵了”。但他们实际上是在押注于那些不常发生的事情完全不会发生。如果你拿长岛的一场巨大飓风或加州的一次大地震来说,有很多公司没有做好准备来承受这些损失。如果你是位 63 岁的 CEO,而且你想着,“我过几年就退休了”,你知道,很可能在你任内不会发生。但这一定会发生在某个人的任期内。我们努力向这些人出售再保险。通常我们能做到。但有时也做不到。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTThe question is about partnerships between, probably, commercial policyholders and their insurers. And there are a lot of ways of doing that by various retrospective plans or adjustable rates of various sorts, and self-insured retentions, and that sort of thing. As a general matter, there are only two reasons for buying insurance. One is to protect yourself against a loss that you are unable or unwilling to bear yourself. And that is partly a — an objective decision. It’s partly subjective. For example, a manager that's terribly worried that his board of directors may second-guess him if he has an uninsured loss, is going to buy a lot more protection, probably, than the company really needs. But he knows he's never going to have to go in front of his board of directors and say, "We just had a million-dollar fire loss." And then the next question the director asks is, "Was it insured?" And then he doesn't want to answer no. So, he may do something that is very unintelligent from the company's standpoint merely to protect his own position. But the reason for buying insurance is, whether — and this is true of life insurance, it's true of property-casualty, it's true of personal insurance, it's true of commercial insurance — is to protect against losses that you're unwilling or unable to bear yourself. Or the second reason, which occasionally comes up, is if you think the insurance company is actually selling you a policy that's too cheap, so that you really expect, over a period of time, to have a mathematical advantage by buying insurance. Well, we try to avoid selling the second kind and to concentrate on selling the first kind. And we think any company we can sell insurance to — and of course, we — much of the insurance we sell is to other insurance companies. I mean, we are a reinsurer, in very large part. We are selling them insurance against a loss that they are either unable or unwilling to sustain. And a typical case, you know, might be a company that had a lot of homeowners policies in California. And if those include earthquake coverage, they may not be able to sustain the kind of loss that is possible, even though they want to keep a distribution system in place that merchandises en masse to homeowners in California. So, we will write a policy. They may take the first 5 million of loss, they may take the first 50 million of loss — depends on their own capabilities — but then they come to us. And we are really uniquely situated to take care of problems that no else — that the companies can't bear themselves and that they can't find anybody else to insure. But we really don't want to insure someone for a loss that they can afford themselves, because if we're doing that it may because they're dumb. But it may be because they also have a loss expectancy that's higher than the premium we're charging, which is not what we're trying to do in business. I think that — I think probably, as compared to 30 years ago, that risk managers at corporations are probably more intelligent about the way they buy their insurance than many years ago. I think it’s become a — I think they're more sophisticated and they've thought it through better. But there's a lot of insurance — there’s some — there’s a fair amount of insurance bought that doesn't make sense. And there's a fair amount of insurance that isn't bought that should be bought. There are certain companies that are exposing themselves in this country to losses which would wipe them out. And they prefer not to buy reinsurance because it's, quote, "expensive." But what they're really doing is betting on something that won't happen very often, happening not at all. And if you take a huge hurricane on Long Island or you take a major quake in California, there are a number of companies that are not — that have not positioned themselves to withstand those losses. And if you're a 63-year-old CEO and you figure, "I'm going to retire in a couple of years," you know, the odds are pretty good that it won't happen on your watch. But the — it will happen on somebody's watch. And we try to sell reinsurance to those people. And usually, we do. But sometimes we don't. Charlie?

查理·芒格没什么要补充的。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERNothing to add. (Laughter)

“我们能承受的冲击……别人承受不了”

"We can sustain shocks … that others can't"

沃伦·巴菲特好。第五区。他在给自己留后路。等他一开口,肯定会很犀利。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Zone 5. He's saving himself. He'll be dynamite when he gets going. (Laughter)

现场股东我叫休·斯蒂芬森。我是来自佐治亚州亚特兰大的一名股东。我的问题是关于公司的巨灾保险业务。似乎通过百慕大及其他地区的公司,进入这个行业相对容易。考虑到这项业务对整个公司的重要性,我很想知道这种进入的便利性如何影响其长期竞争地位和回报率?

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Hugh Stephenson (PH). I'm a shareholder from Atlanta, Georgia. My question involves the company's catastrophe lines of insurance. It seems that there's a relative ease of entry into that business through Bermuda-based companies and others. And given the importance of that business to the overall company, I'm curious how the ease of entry into the business affects its long-term competitive position and its rates of return?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,你说得很对,进入巨灾保险业务确实容易。而且,你知道,这对发起人来说特别有吸引力。因为如果你成立一家保险公司在加州承保地震险,筹集了数亿美元,那么你要么基本上没有损失,要么如果你承保的量足够大,你会破产。在大部分年份,你不会有损失。所以,如果你的目标是一两年内公开出售你的股票,那么你拥有漂亮业绩记录的可能性很大。然后你就可以卖出。你知道,大概十次里有一次,你会破产。九次里,你会卖给最终会破产的其他人。所以,进入确实很容易。唯一可能限制这一点的是,如果买方足够成熟,会质疑该公司在极端条件下的生存能力——而当你购买巨灾保险时,这才是唯一重要的条件——这可能会限制它。第二件事当然是,所有这些新成立的公司都无法提供哪怕接近伯克希尔那样大的承保能力。伯克希尔在资本实力方面,在这个行业里确实是独一无二的。我不认为我能想起百慕大任何一家公司有十亿美元净资产。但你知道,我们目前大概有接近 130 亿美元的净资产,价值还远不止这些。所以,我们能承受冲击,而且我该补充一点,我们也会承受冲击,那些冲击是别人承受不了的。我们努力为此获得合理的报酬。但当我们说能承受十亿美元的损失时,我们确实能承受十亿美元的损失。而且某个时候我们肯定会遭受十亿美元的损失。任何购买保险的人都知道我们能承受,或者更多。他们也应该知道,很少有其他竞争者能做到。所以,竞争是存在的。我们相当大比例的业务是与世界上八到十家最大的再保险公司和保险公司做的。因此,我们确实与那些了解该行业风险的人建立了合作关系。他们来找伯克希尔的次数远比在百慕大停留的次数多,因为他们知道我们会赔付。而且他们存在的时间足够长,知道对保险公司来说,那才是最重要的东西。如果费率低到荒谬的地步,有足够多的承保能力,那么最终,那时我们就不会承保那种业务了。但我认为这不会发生。到目前为止肯定没发生过。如果真的发生了,那也没办法。在损失发生之前,我们都去打高尔夫。查理?(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTWell, you're very right, there is an ease of entry into the catastrophe business. And, you know, it's sort of attractive for — it’s particularly attractive for promoters. Because if you start an insurance company to write earthquake insurance in California and you raise a few hundred million dollars, you'll either have essentially have no losses or, if you write enough of it, you'll go broke. And most years, you'll have no losses. So, if your intention is to sell your stock publicly in a year or two, that — the odds are very good that you will have a beautiful record for a couple of years. And you can sell. And, you know, maybe one time out of ten, you'll go broke. And nine times out of ten, you'll sell to somebody else who will eventually go broke. And it — there is — there’s real ease of entry. The only thing that may restrict that is that if the buyer is sophisticated enough to question the viability of that company under really extreme conditions, which is the only conditions that count when you're buying catastrophe insurance, that may restrict it. The second thing is, of course, none of the people that have started up can offer anywhere near the amount of coverage that Berkshire has. Berkshire is really one of a kind in terms of its capital strength in the business. I’m — I don't think any money in Bermuda that I can remember — I don't think Ajit’s out there. But I don't think anybody has a billion of net worth. And you know, we have — at present, we probably have close to 13 billion of net worth and considerably more of value. So we can sustain shocks, and we will sustain shocks, I should add, that others can't. And we try to get paid appropriately for that. But when we say we can take a billion-dollar loss, we can take a billion-dollar loss. And we will have a billion-dollar loss at some point. And anyone buying it knows we can take it, or something greater. And they should know that very few other — very few of our competitors can. So, there's competition. We do an unusual proportion of our business with the eight or ten largest insurance — reinsurance companies and insurance companies in the world. So, we really have established with the people who understand the real risks of the business. They come to Berkshire and — a lot more often than they stop in Bermuda, because they know that we'll pay. And they’ve been around long enough to know that, in the end, that's what really counts with an insurance company. If the rates — if there were enough capacity at really ridiculous rates, I mean, in the end, we wouldn't be writing that business at that time. But I don't think that will happen. It certainly hasn't happened so far. And if it happens, you know, so be it. We'll all play golf until the loss occurs. Charlie? (Laughter)

查理·芒格没什么要补充的。

CHARLIE MUNGERNothing to add.

格雷厄姆原则适用于高科技股?

Graham's principles for high-tech stocks?

沃伦·巴菲特第六区?还是我们已经——嗯。

WARREN BUFFETTZone 6? Or did we do — yeah.

现场股东两位主席,目前伯克希尔投资的大部分公司都不在高科技领域。过去几年我们看到,高科技领域的销售额和利润似乎都有显著增长。而且,美国投资者认为时代正在从品牌转向高科技。我的问题是,有人能否应用你们的投资原则、商业哲学和人生准则来建立一个由五到六家高科技公司组成的投资组合?比如,叫它伯克希尔·哈撒韦高科技基金?(笑声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERChairmen, most company Berkshire invest at this time are not high in — are not in high-technology sector. What we have seen in the last few years, that there seems to be a significant growth, both in sales and earnings of the high-technology area. And also, what invest — what U.S. shareholder believe that the times are changing from a brand name to high-technology. My question is, can someone apply your investment principle, business philosophy, and your discipline in life to build a portfolio of, say, five or six high-technology company? Let's call it Berkshire Hathaway Technology Fund? (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我觉得他说的方法行得通。(笑声)问题在于——查理和我没这个本事。我们——查理大概懂高科技,但你也看到了,想从他嘴里套出点信息有多难。所以——(笑声)——他还没告诉过我。我们尽量不去碰我们不懂的东西。要是我们真要拿你的钱去亏,那我们希望明年能站到你面前,告诉你我们亏了钱,是因为我们当初的判断是这样,结果却是那样。我们可不想说,唉,有人给我们写了份报告,说某个我们完全不懂的领域“会发生这样的事”,然后我们听了别人的建议把你的钱亏掉了。所以,我们自己不会这么干。我认为那些原则——我认为本·格雷厄姆的原则——用在科技公司上完全成立。只不过我们不知道怎么用,但这不意味着别人也不知道怎么用。我猜,如果比尔·盖茨在他懂而我不懂的领域里考察一家公司,他做投资决策的思维方式会跟我大体相同。他只不过能看懂那门生意。我可能觉得自己懂可口可乐或吉列。而他可能有能力看懂许多别的生意,那些生意在他眼里就像可口可乐或吉列在我眼里一样清晰。我想他一旦认定了那些机会,就会用几乎同样的标尺来决定如何行动。我认为他会——我认为他也会讲安全边际原则,可能标准稍有不同,因为科技公司本质上风险更高。但他心中仍会有安全边际原则,只是会针对数学意义上的亏损风险做相应调整。他会把投资看作一门生意,而不是一只股票。你知道,他不会借钱去买。我的意思是,一系列原则都会贯穿始终。但我们能理解的圈子,真的不太可能扩大,或许偶尔会扩大那么一点点。只要资本规模别太大,这个圈子就够用。但我们不会——如果我们在圈子里找项目费劲,我们不会去扩大这个圈子。我们会等待。这就是我们的做法。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think it would sell. (Laughter) The question about — Charlie and I won't be able to do it. We — Charlie probably understands high-tech. But you can see how hard it is to get any information out of him. So — (laughter) — he hasn't told me yet. We try not to get into things we — that we don't understand. And if we're going to lose your money, we want to be able to come before you, you know, next year and tell you we lost your money because we thought this and it turned out to be that. We don't want to say, you know, somebody wrote us a report saying if, you know, "This is what's going to happen," in some field that we don't understand and that, therefore, we lost your money by following someone else's advice. So, we won't do it ourselves. At — I think that the principles — I think Ben Graham's principles — are perfectly valid when applied to high-tech companies. It's that we don't know how to do it, but that doesn't mean somebody else doesn't know how to do it. My guess is that if Bill Gates were thinking about some company in an arena that he understood and that I didn't understand, he would apply much the same way of thinking about the investment decision that I would. He would just understand the business. I might think I understand Coca-Cola or Gillette. And he may have a — he may have the ability to understand a lot of other businesses that seems as clear to him as Coke or Gillette would seem to me. I think once he identified those, he would apply pretty much the same yardsticks in deciding how to act. I think he would act — I think he would have a margin of safety principle that might be a little different because there's essentially more risk in a high-tech company. But he would still have the margin of safety principle on a — sort of adjusted for the mathematical risk of loss in his mind. He would have — he would look at it as a business, not as a stock. You know, he would not buy it on borrowed money. I mean, it — a bunch of principles would be carried through. But our circle of things we understand is really unlikely to enlarge, maybe a tiny bit here or there. But if the capital doesn't get too large, the circle's OK. And — but we will not —if we have trouble finding things within our circle, we will not enlarge the circle. You know, we'll wait. That's our approach.

美国航空:“你不需要在哪儿亏的就在哪儿赚回来”

USAir: "You don't have to make it back the way you lost it"

沃伦·巴菲特好了,第 7 区准备好了吗?我们能在那边进行吗——好,就在这儿。

WARREN BUFFETTNow, how are we set up for Zone 7? Can we do it out — yeah, here we are.

现场股东你在听吗?你好,我是苏西·泰勒(音),来自内布拉斯加州林肯市。先说明一下——我们减记了美国航空的账面价值,以反映这笔投资的当前市价。你在年报里对为什么这门生意的经济特征不吸引人解释得很清楚。我想,如果现在能重新选择,我们不会再做这笔投资。

AUDIENCE MEMBERAre you there? Hi, I'm Susie Taylor (PH) from Lincoln, Nebraska. By way of explaining — we wrote down the value of USAir, reflecting our investment's current market value. You had a good explanation in your report as to why the economics of the business are unattractive. And I presume, given the choice, we wouldn't do it over again.

沃伦·巴菲特我觉得这个推测很合理。(笑声)我得提一句,刚才有哪位想问美国航空的事,我们都把他们安排到另一间屋子里去了,这下你知道为什么了。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTI think that's a fair assumption. (Laughter) I should mention, anybody wanted to ask about USAir, we put them in the other room, just so you'll know why. (Laughter)

现场股东接下来第二部分会好一些。

AUDIENCE MEMBERAnd then the second part is better.

沃伦·巴菲特但我正盯着你呢。我能从监视器上看到你。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTBut I'm watching you. I can see you on the monitor. (Laughs)

现场股东我想引用你那句意味深长的话:“你不需要在哪儿亏的就在哪儿赚回来。”

AUDIENCE MEMBERAnd quoting from your profound statement, "You don't have to make it back the way you lost it."

沃伦·巴菲特没错。

WARREN BUFFETTRight.

现场股东把那 8900 万美元投到你非常看好的东西上,而不是放在美国航空,不是更好吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERWouldn't it be a good idea to put that 89 million in something you are really behind as opposed to USAir?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这个问题问得非常好。因为投资中确实有一条极为重要的原则:你不需要在哪儿亏的就在哪儿赚回来。事实上,试图在哪儿亏的就在哪儿赚回来,通常是个错误。当我们减记一项投资时——就像我们对美国航空这样减记到 8900 万美元——我们可能认为它的实际价值高于这个数字。但我们倾向于保守一些。不过它确实比我们的买入价低了很多。而且这种优先股的性质,加上我们买的其他私募证券的性质,通常会让出售变得相当困难。这是我们在买之前就清楚的一点。我们买优先股的时候,有些人以为我们拿到了特别优厚的条款。最近倒没听他们再提美国航空这事了,不过——(笑声)但其中一个考虑因素就是:如果你通过证券公司从同一发行人那里买 100 股公开募集的优先股,你明天就能卖掉。而我们受到种种限制,有些是法律上的,有些则纯粹是市场运作方式造成的,使我们很难处置这类持仓。我们也知道,如果真想卖,要么会额外增加成本,要么可能根本卖不掉。这对我们来说关系不大,因为我们买入不是为了卖出,但也并非毫无影响。我们持有美国航空的 A 系列优先股,跟我们买入 1000 股或 5000 股在纽约证券交易所交易的 B 系列优先股(好像是这个类别),处境截然不同。后者流动性很好。我们这只优先股的价格或许能略高于我们的账面成本,但要处置它并不容易。要是我们试图去卖——假设真能卖掉的话——也许能多拿回一点钱。但这并不好操作,部分原因是法律限制。查理和我是董事,这让事情复杂化了。只要我们坐在董事会里,就会知道一些公众不知道的信息。这又让事情复杂了。到头来,我们通常发现,处理任何涉及信托义务的事情,可能根本就不现实。就算可行,也多半是麻烦大于回报。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, that's a very good question. Because it is true that a very important principle in investing is you don't have to make it back the way you lost it. And in fact, it's usually a mistake to make — try and make it back the way that you lost it. And we have — when we write our — an investment down, as we did with USAir at 89 million, we probably think it's worth something more than that. But we tend to want to be on the conservative side. But it's worth a whole lot less than we paid. And the nature of that preferred, as well as other private issues we've bought, usually makes it quite difficult to sell. That's one of the things we know going in. When we bought preferred, some people thought that we were getting unusually favorable terms. I haven't heard from them lately on USAir, but — (Laughter) But one of the considerations in that is that, if you buy a hundred shares of a preferred that's being offered through a securities firm, from the same issuer, you can sell it tomorrow. And we are restricted, in some ways legally, and in other ways simply by the way that markets work, from disposing of holdings like that. And we know that there's an extra cost involved to us if we should try to sell, or it may be impossible. And that's not of great importance with us because we don't buy things to sell, but it's of some importance. And we are not in the same position owning our Series A preferred of USAir as we would be if we bought a thousand shares or 5,000 shares of the Series B preferred, I believe it is, that trades on the New York Stock Exchange. That would be very saleable. And our preferred could well even be saleable at a price modestly above what we carry it for, but it would require — it would not be very easy to do. It might — if it were do — if we went about to do it, we could probably — assuming we could do it at all — we could probably get a little more money for it. But it would not be easy to do, partly because of legal restrictions. Charlie and I are on the board. That complicates things. We always know something that, just by being on the board, that the public doesn't know. So, that complicates things. And in the end, we usually find that dealing with anything where we've got fiduciary obligations is, maybe, not practical at all. And if it is, it's probably more trouble than it's worth. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,美国航空这笔投资显然称得上是一次有趣的经历了。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, it's certainly been an interesting experience, the USAir experience. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特就说这么多,查理?好吧。不,他——

WARREN BUFFETTIs that it, Charlie? OK. No, he —

查理·芒格我想重申一下“不需要在哪儿亏的就在哪儿赚回来”这个道理。你知道,很多人之所以因为赌博倾家荡产,就是这个原因。他们输了钱,然后觉得非要用输钱的方式把钱捞回来不可。这是人性深处的一部分。能凭借意志力克服它,记住几句像这样的小格言,确实是很聪明的做法。

CHARLIE MUNGERI'd like to repeat that business about not having to get it back the way you lost it. You know, that's the reason so many people are ruined by gambling. They get behind and then they feel they have to get it back the way they lost it. It's a deep part of the human nature. And it's very smart just to lick it by will, and little phrases like that are very useful.

沃伦·巴菲特是的,关于股票很重要的一点是,股票并不知道你持有它。你知道,你对它有一大堆情绪。而且——(笑声)——你记得自己进场花了多少钱,对吧?(笑声)你还记得是谁跟你说的。所有这些小事,对吧?而它——你想想,它根本不在乎,对吧?(笑声)它就坐在那儿。一只 50 块的股票,有人花 100 块买的,感觉糟透了;有人花 10 块买的,感觉棒极了。所有这些情绪,对它没有任何影响。所以,正如查理所说,赌博就是个典型例子。一个人花多年时间建立了一门生意,这门生意他知道怎么干。然后他跑到别的地方,参与了一场数学上对他不利的游戏。开始输钱后,他就觉得非把钱捞回来不可,而且不仅要用输钱时的那种方式捞回来,还得当晚就捞回来。而这——(笑声)是一个巨大的错误。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, one of the important things in stocks is that the stock does not know that you own it. You know, you have all these feelings about it. You know, and — (laughter) — you remember what you paid, you know? (Laughter) You remember who told you about it. All these little things, you know? And it — you know, it doesn't give a damn, you know? (Laughter) It just sits there. And it — you know, a stock at 50, somebody's paid a hundred, they feel terrible. Somebody else paid 10, they feel wonderful. All these feelings, and it has no impact whatsoever. And so, it's — as Charlie says, gambling is the classic example. Someone builds a business over years. You know, that, they know how to do. And then they go out some place and get into a mathematically disadvantageous game. Start losing it and they think they've got to make it back, not only the way they lost it, but that night. And — (laughter) it's a great mistake.

警惕复杂的新潮理论和“高僧大德”

Beware of complicated fads and "high priests"

沃伦·巴菲特第 1 区。

WARREN BUFFETTZone 1.

现场股东我叫唐纳德·斯通,来自康涅狄格州里弗赛德。我——这是我生平第二次参加股东大会,我今年 61 岁了。所以能来到这里,我感到非常荣幸。第一次是一个半星期前的可口可乐股东大会,那里只有 200 人。我正想搞明白是怎么回事。(笑声)我觉得规则是:出席人数与股价成正比。

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Donald Stone. I'm from Riverside, Connecticut. I’m — this is my second shareholders meeting, ever, at age 61. So, I'm really very privileged to be here. My first was Coca-Cola a week and a half ago. And there were only 200 people there. I'm trying to figure this out. (Laughter) I think the rule is that the number of people present is in direct proportion to the price of the shares.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,那这样的话,我们不拆股了。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTWell, in that case, we won't split. (Laughter)

现场股东好。先就我的问题说几句:1994 年 11 月 24 日的《财富》杂志有一篇特写文章,标题是《美国最伟大的财富创造者》,讲的是市场增加值和经济增加值的概念。我很高兴地注意到,可口可乐在那张榜单上排名第二,仅次于通用电气,而可口可乐以仅为百事可乐三分之一的资本,业绩却是它的两倍(百事可乐排名第九)。我的问题是:市场增加值和经济增加值这类概念,或者它的任何变体,是否适用于伯克希尔·哈撒韦整体,或者在分析其各业务板块时有用?我想先听听查理·芒格怎么说。(笑声)因为我听说——

AUDIENCE MEMBEROK. Prefatory comment to my question: the November 24th, 1994 issue of Fortune Magazine had an article, a featured article, entitled "America's Greatest Wealth Builders," dealing with the concepts of market value added and economic value added. It was with great glee that I noticed that Coca-Cola was number two on that list, second only to General Electric, and that Coca-Cola had done twice as well as Pepsi-Cola, number nine on the list, with one-third as much capitalization. My question is this: whether the concept of market value added and economic value added, as such, or any of its variants, is a concept that's applicable and useful to Berkshire Hathaway as a whole, or in analyzing its line of business segments? I'd really like to hear from Charlie Munger on this first. (Laughter) Because I’ve heard —

沃伦·巴菲特我也想听。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTSo would I. (Laughter)

现场股东我听说——

AUDIENCE MEMBERI've heard —

沃伦·巴菲特查理?

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie?

现场股东我听说他对这个课题有过很多思考。

AUDIENCE MEMBERI’ve heard that he's thought a lot about this particular subject.

沃伦·巴菲特对。

WARREN BUFFETTRight.

查理·芒格如果沃伦现在是在完全照商学院教的那套方法使用经济增加值,他可没告诉过我。显然,这个概念有些道理。但那套精确的正式方法,我不认为我们在用。沃伦,你是不是在偷偷用这些东西?

CHARLIE MUNGERIf Warren is using economic value added exactly the way they're now teaching it in the business schools, he hasn't told me. Obviously, the concept has some merit in it. But the exact formal methods, I don't believe we use. Warren, are you using this stuff secretly?

沃伦·巴菲特不,我们——(笑声)——在某种意义上,他们想达到的目的和我们一样。或者说,我们想达到的目的和他们一样。但我觉得——第一,我认为它有些缺陷。不过,我认为它大体上能得出正确的答案,它多多少少强迫自己得出正确答案。但我确实不认为你需要那种东西。我的意思是,我不觉得搞清楚钱该往哪儿投有那么复杂。你可能会犯错。但就你要做的那些脑力活而言,我不觉得这是个多复杂的课题。而且我不认为——我是觉得,那些推销各种管理时髦概念的人,往往把事情搞得比实际需要的更复杂,这样你才得去请那位大祭司。你知道,如果算数的只是那十诫,那宗教顾问之类的可就难混了。(笑)它根本就不需要——它就是不够复杂。我觉得,在管理咨询、你看到的那些书以及所有那些冒出来的东西里,有这种现象,而且为数不少——相当多。

WARREN BUFFETTNo, we — (laughter) — in a sense, they're trying to get at the same thing we do. Or we're trying to get at the same thing they do. But I think it's — A, I think it has some flaws in it. Although I think it generally comes out with the right answers, it sort of forces itself to come out with the right answers. But I really don't think you need that sort of thing. I mean, I do not think it's that complicated to figure out, you know, where it makes sense to put money. You can make mistakes doing it. But in terms of the mental manipulations you go through, I don't think it's a very complicated subject. And I don't think that — I think that the people marketing one or another fad in management tend to make them a little more complicated than needed so that you have to call in the high priest. And, you know, it — if all that really counts is the Ten Commandments, you know, it's very tough on religious counselors and everything. (Laughs) It doesn't take — it just doesn't make it complicated enough. And I think there's some of that in — quite a bit of that — in management consulting and in the books that you see and all of that, that come out.

查理·芒格它远没资本资产定价模型那么傻。所以,至少学术界是在进步。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's way less silly than the capital assets pricing model. So that, at least academia's improving. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特确实如此。资本资产定价模型这东西——我不知道现在还有多少人用。当然,你知道,它们都曾经有过巨大的流行浪潮。管理领域有这种潮流,投资领域也一样。我是说,房地产可能曾经很热,或者是国际投资。你读读《养老金与投资》杂志,那是本相当不错的杂志。但你能明显看到这些潮流一波波地来,然后又走。接着大家就围绕它们开研讨会,搞各种名堂。而你知道,投资银行家就会顺势创造产品来满足需求。管理领域也有这些潮流——我是说,显然,倾听你的客户之类的事情,再没有比这更有道理的了。但反过来讲,很难写出一本 300 页的书,翻来覆去就只说“倾听你的客户”吧。(笑声)你知道,这也是我喜欢格雷厄姆那本书的原因之一。我是说,他写的——他写的每句话都合情合理。他没有去搞那些花里胡哨的修饰,也没有试图把事情弄得比它实际的样子更复杂。你知道,我压根没必要去读《财富》杂志 1994 年 11 月刊,才知道可口可乐已经创造了大量价值。(笑声)我们为伯克希尔增加了大约 40 多亿美元的价值。对我来说,这就够了。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTReally, yeah. The capital asset pricing model, which is — I don't know how much it's used now. Certainly — you know, they had these great waves of popularity. You get that in management. You get it in investing. I mean, real estate, you know, may have been popular, or international. I — you can read Pensions & Investment magazine, which is a pretty good magazine. But you can just see these fads sort of going through. And then they have seminars on them and everything. And, you know, the investment bankers create product to satisfy the demand. And there’re these fads in management — I mean, obviously, listening to your customer and things like that, I mean, that is — nothing makes more sense. But it's hard to write a 300-page book that just says, "Listen to your customer." (Laughter) And, you know, that's one of the things I liked about Graham's book. I mean, you know, he wrote — everything he wrote sort of made sense. He didn't sort of get into all the frills and try and make it more complicated than it really, truly is. You know, I really didn't need to read the November issue — 1994 issue of Fortune — to know that Coca-Cola had added a lot of value. (Laughter) We added about 4 billion-some of value to Berkshire. That's good enough for me. (Laughter)

衍生品:“错误与危害的可能性”

Derivatives: "Potential for mistakes and mischief"

沃伦·巴菲特第二区域。

WARREN BUFFETTZone 2.

现场股东我叫莫鲁斯·斯彭斯,来自内布拉斯加州奥马哈。我有一个关于衍生品的问题,分两部分。伯克希尔·哈撒韦目前或过去是否参与过涉及衍生品的策略?如果是,作为首席执行官,您是否完全理解这些金融工具?(笑声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Maurus Spence from Omaha, Nebraska. I have a two-part question on derivatives. Does Berkshire Hathaway currently, or had they in the past, engaged in strategies involving derivatives? If so, do you as CEO, fully understand these financial instruments? (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特谁提出这么疯狂的想法来着?(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTWhoever suggested that crazy notion? (Laughter)

现场股东最后,查理——您或者查理——是否愿意评论一下其他金融机构对衍生品的使用?

AUDIENCE MEMBERFinally, would Charlie care — you or Charlie — care to comment on the use of these by other financial institutions?

沃伦·巴菲特关于衍生品的问题——我插那句话的原因——在一篇《财富》文章里,我建议说,如果首席执行官必须在报告里说明自己是否理解衍生品,那衍生品的使用会大幅减少,这篇文章你们要是没看都应该看看——(笑声)不过,回答你的问题,我们有两种——我想大概是——衍生品交易,规模非常小。但这不意味着我们不会——如果条件合适,现在我们不会做大得多的规模,或者过去不会做。我们有两种类型的交易,而且我理解它们。有时候,有事情我们想做——不常有——但有时候,用衍生品交易来实现某个目标可能是最好的方式。我们不会犹豫去做。我们显然会非常在意交易对手,因为那交易就是两个人之间的一张纸。在期末,它通常会让其中一方做一件痛苦的事——给另一方开张支票。所以,你得确保那个人既有意愿也有能力开出那张支票。因此,我们可能比大多数人都更关心交易对手风险。去年和前年,我想我说过,衍生品往往把借来的钱和无知结合在一起,那是个相当危险的组合。我觉得,过去一年我们已经看到了一些这种情况。当你能够参与那些涉及几亿、几十亿甚至几百亿美元的非实物交易,只要你能让另一方接受你的签名,那真的——那就有很大潜力出很多错、捣很多乱。如果你去看一些交易——尤其是利率类衍生品——背后涉及的公式,真的很难想象这些工具能解决什么商业目的。我是说,它们本质上带有巨大的赌博成分。我用这个词,指的是创造出一个压根就不需要存在的风险,而不是投机的一面。它们是创造风险,而不是转移风险,你知道,不是缓和风险,而是大规模地创造风险。过去一年里,有大概六、七个人因为这类交易惹上麻烦的案例被曝光,这可能算是幸运的,因为它也许能缓和未来的麻烦。潜力巨大。我是说,你能在衍生品市场里做很多事——嗯,我以前举过这个例子,但在证券上借钱,美国政府的联邦储备委员会在几十年前就决定了,社会对限制人们借钱买证券的程度是有利益的。他们有过 1920 年代的例子,当时保证金是 10%。那被认为是导致大崩盘的因素之一。所以政府通过美联储设定了保证金要求,说,“我不管你是不约翰·D·洛克菲勒,”你知道,“你买通用汽车股票或别的什么,都得拿出 50% 的成本来。”他们说,也许洛克菲勒先生不需要这个,但社会需要。他们不——我们不想要一大群人在薄薄一层保证金上赌博,你知道,本质上就是股票赌博,因为波及效应会给社会带来各种问题。这法律现在还在。但已经没什么意义了,因为各种衍生品工具让 1920 年代的 10% 保证金,和内布拉斯加一个小镇银行家眼里保守的标准比起来,都显得宽松了。所以,这段历史挺有意思。你知道,就像我说的,也许过去一年的经验——让大家把注意力都集中到了衍生品上。没人确切知道该怎么处理它们。伯克希尔·哈撒韦会——如果我们认为某件事有意义,而且查理和我都理解它——我们可能会找到使用它们、我们认为对我们有利的办法。查理,你想补充点什么吗?

WARREN BUFFETTThe question about derivatives — the reason I inject that remark — in a Fortune article that all of you should read if you haven't, I suggested that the use of derivatives would be dramatically reduced if the CEO had to say in the report whether he understood them or not, and — (Laughter) The answer to your question, though, is we have two types, I guess it would be, of derivative transactions, of very modest size. But that doesn't mean we wouldn't — if the conditions were right, we either wouldn't have them on a much greater scale now, or we wouldn't have done it in the past. We have two types of transactions, and I do understand them. And there are times when there are things that we would want to do — not often — but there would be times when they could be best accomplished by a transaction involving a derivative security. And we wouldn't hesitate to do so. We would obviously care very much about the counterparty, because that transaction is just a little piece of paper between two people. And it's going to cause one of the two to have to do something painful at the end of the period, usually, which is to write a check to the other person. And therefore, you want to be sure that that person will be both willing and able to write the check. And so, we're probably more concerned about counterparty risk than most people might be. Last year and the year before, I think I said that derivatives often combine borrowed money with ignorance, and that that is a rather dangerous combination. And I think that we've seen some of that in the last year. When you can engage in, sort of, non-physical transactions that involve hundreds of millions, or billions, or tens of billions of dollars, as long as you can get some party on the other side to accept your signature, that really has — that has the potential for a lot of mistakes and mischief. And if you've looked at the formulas involved in some, particularly I guess, interest rate-type derivative instruments, it is really hard to conceive of how any business purpose could be solved by the creation of those instruments. I mean, they essentially had a huge, really, gambling element to them. And I use that in the terms of engaging in a risk that doesn't even need to be created, as opposed to speculative aspects. They involved a creation of risk, not the transfer of risk, you know, not the moderation of risk, but the creation of risk on a huge scale. And it may be fortunate that in the last year, half a dozen or so cases of people that have gotten into trouble on them have come out because it — that may tend to moderate the troubles of the future. The potential is huge. I mean, you can do things in the derivative markets — Well, I've used this example before, but in borrowing money on securities, the Federal Reserve of the U.S. Government decided many decades ago that society had an interest in limiting the degree to which people could use borrowed money in buying securities. They had the example of the 1920s, with what was 10 percent margin. That was regarded as contributing to the Great Crash. So, the government, through the Fed, established margin requirements and said, "I don't care if you're John D. Rockefeller," you know, "You're going to have to put up 50 percent of the cost of buying your General Motors stock," or whatever it may be. And they said that maybe Mr. Rockefeller doesn't need that, but society needs that. They don’t — we don't want a bunch of people on thin margins gambling, you know, essentially, in shares, where the ripple effects can cause all kinds of problems for society. And that's still a law. But it means nothing anymore because various derivative instruments have made 10 percent margins of the 1920s, you know, look like what a small-town banker in Nebraska would regard as conservative, compared to what goes on. So, it's been an interesting history. You know, like I say, perhaps the experiences of the last year — they've got everybody focused on derivatives. Nobody knows exactly what to do about them. Berkshire Hathaway will — if we think something makes sense and Charlie and I understand it — we may find ways to use them to what we think will be our advantage. Charlie, you want to add anything on that?

查理·芒格嗯,我甚至比你更不赞同,这挺难的。如果让我来管这个世界,我们就不会有期权交易所。衍生品交易量大概是现在的 5%。合同的复杂程度会大幅下降。清算系统会更强硬。我觉得世界有点疯了。我非常庆幸我在生活中不用非得去做它的辩护者。你知道,很多人,我为他们感到难过。你知道,他们拥有很好的银行。他们不得不在人前,有时甚至包括他们的孩子和朋友,争辩这些东西有多好。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I disapprove even more than you do, which is hard. If I were running the world, we wouldn't have options exchanges. The derivative transactions would be about 5 percent of what they are. And the complexity of the contracts would go way down. The clearing systems would be tougher. I think the world has gone a little bonkers. And I'm very happy that I'm not so located in life that I have to be an apologist for it. You know, a lot of these people, I feel sorry for them. You know, they had great banks. And they have to go before people, sometimes even including their children and friends, and argue that these things are wonderful.

所罗门兄弟暗淡的前景

Salomon's murky future

沃伦·巴菲特第三区?

WARREN BUFFETTZone 3?

现场股东早上好。我叫约翰·努吉尔,来自加利福尼亚州金斯堡。我的问题跟所罗门兄弟有关。我想请问,您能展望一下它未来两三年会怎样吗?它起初是一笔不错的投资。您获得了不错的回报,或者说利息。但它显然出了一些问题。随着问题持续,我们越来越深地陷进去了。看起来并不太光明。所以,您一定知道它往哪个方向走。能否跟我们说说,您觉得它未来两三年会怎样?

AUDIENCE MEMBERGood morning. I'm John Nugier (PH) from Kingsburg, California. And my question relates to Salomon. And where — I'm just asking if you could take us out the next two or three years in your vision. It started out as a good investment. You got a good return on it, or your interest. And it's clearly had some problems. And we have gotten in deeper and deeper as those problems have continued. And it doesn't look like it's superbright. So, it — you must understand where it's going. But could you just give us where you see it going in the next two or three years?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,不,我觉得要预测所罗门——或者说,实际上,几乎任何一家大型投资银行兼交易公司——未来两三个月会怎样都很难,更别说两三年了。这个行业的本质显然比刀片和剃须刀生意波动大得多。难就难在,评估长期回报时,因为波动性太大,要判断一家企业的平均收益率会是多少就难上加难。答案就是,查理和我,大概如果我们试着写未来两三年的预测,也不会有多大信心——觉得有很高的概率能预测那家公司、或同行业的其他公司未来三年会赚多少,或者平均收益会是多少。我们自己的投入是 7 亿美元的可转换优先股,有五个赎回日期,从今年 10 月 31 日开始,以后每年一个。在这些日期,我们可以选择拿现金或股票。有选择权当然是一个优势。在这个世界上,任何时候你有选择权,都是对你的优势——可能是个很小的优势,但——给别人选择权通常是错误,接受选择权通常是好主意,如果不花你什么钱的话。关于选择权的另一件事是,你不用非做决定不可,直到必须做决定的时候。不过——所以,除了那 7 亿美元优先股——在我们看来这百分之百是稳赚的——我是说,我们还想多持有一些。但我们还有大约 600 多万股普通股,买入价大概是每股 48 美元左右。无论如何,这远高于现在 35 或 36 美元的市场价。所以,我们在普通股上按市价大概有 8000 万或 9000 万美元的亏损,差不多这个数。优先股对我们来说还不错。我们每年收到 6300 万美元。顺便说一句,因为我们持有那么多普通股,这一点可能不太为人所知——或者说不太被意识到——如果你持有公司 20% 的投票权,你的股息税收抵免会有点不同。你的税务处理跟持有低于 20% 时不一样。所以,在持有那些普通股之前,我们为优先股股息交的税比现在多。这不是个大项,但也不算微不足道。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, no, I think it's very difficult to forecast where Salomon or, really, almost any major investment bank, slash, trading house will do over actually the next two or three months, let alone the next two or three years. The nature of that business is obviously far more volatile than the blade and razor business. Now the — and the tough part is assessing over a longer period of time whether — because of volatility, it's much harder to assess whether — what the average returns might be from a business. And the answer is, Charlie and I, probably, if we were to try and write the forecast for the next two or three years, we would not have a high — a feeling that we had a high probability of being able to predict what that company, or other companies in that industry either, would earn three years out or would probably have in the way of average earnings. Our own commitment is to a $700 million preferred issue, which has five redemption dates starting in October 31st of this year and then every year thereafter. On those dates, we can either take cash or stock. And that's an advantage, obviously, to have an option. Any time you have an option in this world, it's to an advantage — it’s to your advantage. It may be a very small advantage, but it’s — giving options is generally a mistake, and accepting options is usually a good idea, if it doesn't cost you anything. And we will — the other thing about options is you don't make a decision on them until you have to make a decision. But — so, we, in addition to that $700 million of preferred, which in our view is a hundred percent money-good — I mean, we'd like to own more of that. But we also have about 6 million-odd shares of common, which we paid perhaps $48 a share for, or something in that area. In any event, considerably more than the present market of 35 or '6. So, we have a loss of probably 80 or $90 million, or some number like that, at market in the common. The preferred has actually treated us fine. We've received $63 million a year. Incidentally, by owning the amount of common we own, this probably isn't generally known, but — or recognized — if you own 20 percent of the voting power of a company, you have a somewhat different dividends-received credit. You have somewhat different tax treatment than if you own less than 20 percent. So, until we own that common, we paid somewhat more tax on our preferred dividend than we now pay. It's not a huge item, but it's not immaterial, either. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我当然同意,预测大型投资银行兼交易公司会发生什么很难。我想说的是,伯克希尔·哈撒韦早在买优先股之前就是所罗门的大客户了,而且多年来我们享受了极好的服务。我认为所罗门会存在很长时间,为各种客户提供非常好的服务。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I certainly agree, it's hard to forecast what's going to happen in the big investment banking, dash — slash, trading houses. I would like to say that Berkshire Hathaway was a large customer of Salomon long before we bought the preferred, and that we've had marvelous service over the years. I think Salomon's going to be around for a long time, rendering very good service to various clients.

沃伦·巴菲特我们卖过——

WARREN BUFFETTWe sold —

查理·芒格满意的客户。

CHARLIE MUNGERSatisfied clients.

沃伦·巴菲特伯克希尔的第一笔债券发行,我记得是 1973 年,通过所罗门卖的。所以,我们跟他们的投行关系已经有 21 或 22 年了。实际上,在那之前我们就通过其他各种方式跟他们做业务。所以,这是个长期关系。但所罗门会存在下去是毫无疑问的。问题——这也是为什么我们的优先股绝对稳赚——问题是平均资本收益率会是多少。我们当初加入时就知道这很难预测。结果发现比我们想的更难预测。

WARREN BUFFETTWe sold our first debt issue of Berkshire, I think, in 1973, through Salomon. So, we've had an investing banking relationship for 21 or 22 years there. And actually, we'd done business with them before that in various other ways. So, it's a long-term relationship. But there's no question about Salomon being around. The question — and that's why our preferred is absolutely money-good. But the question is what the average return on capital will be. And we knew that was difficult to predict when we went in. And we found out it's even more difficult to predict than we thought.

致敬共同基金先驱菲尔·卡雷特

Honoring mutual fund pioneer Phil Carret

沃伦·巴菲特第 4 区?

WARREN BUFFETTZone 4?

现场股东谢谢你的机会。我是来自奥马哈的迪克·詹森(音),内布拉斯加大学的支持者。一个有点绕的问题:我对你们最近买入美国运通以及未来的打算很感兴趣。据我对这家公司的了解,我知道它业务相当复杂、广泛,涉及很多领域。我知道其中之一当然是信用卡。但也有 IDS 和其他我甚至不知道的部门。我想知道,你对这项投资有什么期望。还有,我最近也好奇,你个人是否认识一位叫菲尔·卡雷特的先生?以及未来会不会收购他的公司?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERThank you for the opportunity. Dick Jensen (PH) from Omaha, a fellow Nebraska University supporter. A rather convoluted question: very interested in your recent purchase and your future intention of American Express. And as I understand the company, I know it's a rather involved and complicated and rather expansive company, insofar as it has its interest in many areas. I know one of which, of course, is the credit card. But there's also the major part of the organization of IDS and others that I don't even know about. And I wondered, what your hopes are for that investment. And I also, just recently, as perhaps you have, became curious to know if you are personally acquainted with Mr. Phil Carret, I believe, his name is. And how about the purchase of his firm in your future? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特迪克,我想菲尔·卡雷特今天在场。菲尔?

WARREN BUFFETTDick, I think Phil Carret is here today. Phil?

查理·芒格他就在后面。

CHARLIE MUNGERHe's right back there.

沃伦·巴菲特菲尔,你站起来好吗?他在那儿。(掌声)给他鼓掌。菲尔今年 98 岁。我第一次见他是在 1952 年,43 年前。他参加世界上每一次日食。你会在一些非常奇怪的地方碰到他。我相信他写的第一本关于证券的书是 1924 年。菲尔,我说得对吗?嗯。最近他还写了一本自传。他大概是这个国家历史上最出色的长期投资记录保持者。但我觉得——你知道,我的印象是,菲尔几年前卖掉了先锋基金的一部分或相当大一部分,他管理了几十年,很多年。事实上,我第一次了解菲尔是在 40 多年前翻看穆迪银行和金融手册时,我看到这家公司有如此出色的记录和一些看起来非常有趣的证券。于是我们联系上了。他当时在奥马哈,我们就认识了。所以,任何能让菲尔对他说话的人,都要仔细听。我建议这么做。

WARREN BUFFETTPhil, would you stand up? There he is. (Applause) Give him a hand. Phil is 98. I first met him in 1952, 43 years ago. He attends every eclipse around the world. And you can run into him in some very strange places. Wrote his first book on securities, I believe, in 1924. I — am I right on that, Phil? Yeah. And wrote an autobiography here, recently. Probably the greatest long-term investment record in this country's history. And — but I think — I, you know, my impression is that Phil sold part, or a good bit, of Pioneer some years ago, which he managed for decades, many decades. In fact, I first learned about Phil when I was leafing through Moody's Banks and Financial Manual 40-odd years ago, and I saw this company with this great record and with some securities that looked terribly interesting. So, we got in touch. And he was out in Omaha and we got acquainted. It — so, anybody that can get Phil to talk to them, listen carefully. I advise that.

信用卡是美国运通未来的关键

Cards are key to future of American Express

沃伦·巴菲特关于美国运通的问题:我们持有不到 10% 的美国运通。显然,即使你提到他们涉足多个业务,但迄今为止,以及未来很多年——非常多——的关键因素将是信用卡。这个行业已经变得、并且可能永远会变得越来越有竞争性。我是说,我关注它——我想我在 1950 年代末见过大来俱乐部的拉尔夫·施耐德。美国运通是出于恐惧才进入信用卡业务的。我的意思是,他们担心信用卡会对旅行支票业务造成什么影响。旅行支票业务我相信始于 1890 年代左右。这又是从古老的快递业务发展而来的,我记得是亨利·韦尔斯和威廉·法戈,他们运送货物到西部时把自己锁在快递箱上。然后他们决定,也许发行旅行支票会更容易些——(笑声)——而不是到处搬运这些东西。所以,旅行支票是从快递业务演变而来的。而美国运通的信用卡业务源于对——特别是当时大来俱乐部的恐惧。他们都被大来俱乐部吓坏了,那家俱乐部抢占了先机。而美国运通用它取得了巨大的成功。如你所知,美国运通卡在他们所谓的“旅行和娱乐”信用卡领域有着极强的地位。当然,银行大规模涌入。Visa 也取得了巨大的成功。所以,这个卡在某些领域有强大的特许经营权,比如公司卡。尽管有像第一银行系统这样的公司在那里非常积极地跟它们竞争。这个卡——但信用卡有重要的特许经营权,但不像多年前那么广泛。有一段时间,它是“那个”卡。现在它是某些领域的“那个”卡,但范围远没有以前那么广。它有一些非常重要、优势和经济实力,也有一些弱点。你在决定它在 2000 年或 2005 年会怎样时,必须掂量这些。我们认为美国运通的管理层在考虑如何——如何让卡在某些情况下保持特殊性——这个问题上想得很透彻。他们对商家因更高折扣费而产生的反感,我认为做出了明智的反应。所以,我们会看结果如何。但关键是——IDS,现在已改名,是美国运通很大的一部分——它贡献了近三分之一的收益——但关键还是信用卡未来的表现。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTThe question about American Express: we own just under 10 percent of American Express. And obviously, even though you mentioned they're in a number of businesses, the — by far, the key, the most important factor in American Express's future for a good many years to come — a great many years to come — will be the credit card. And that is a business that has become, and will forever, probably, become ever more competitive. I mean, I followed it since — I think I met Ralph Schneider at the Diners Club in the late 1950s. And American Express entered into the credit card business out of fear. I mean, they were worried about what the credit card was going to do to their traveler's check business. Traveler's check business had been originated back in 1890-something, I believe. And that was, in turn, building off of the old express business where, I think, it was Henry Wells and William Fargo, they would chain themselves to the express boxes as they delivered them through the — to the West. And they decided that maybe issuing traveler's checks would a little easier — (laughter) — than carrying all this stuff around. So, that — the traveler's check was the — evolved out of the express business. And the credit card business with American Express arose out of fear of what — particularly Diners Club at the time. They were all terrified of Diners Club, which got this — got the jump on everybody. And they became enormously successful with it. And the American Express card, as you know, had a terribly strong position in what they called the "travel and entertainment" part of the card business. And of course, the banks entered in on a big scale. And Visa's been enormously successful. So, the card has a strong franchise in certain areas, like the corporate card. Although people like First Bank System are very aggressive in going after them there. The card — but the card has a significant franchise, but it does not have the breadth of franchise that it had many years ago. For a while, it was "the" card. And now it's "the" card in certain areas, but nothing like as broad an area as before. It has certain, very important, advantages and economic strengths and it has some weaknesses. And you have to suss those, in deciding where it'll be in the year 2000 or 2005. And we think that the management of American Express thinks well about the question of how to — how you keep the card special in certain situations. And they've reacted to the merchant backlash for higher discount fees, I think, in an intelligent way. So, we'll see how it all plays out. But the key — IDS, which has now been renamed, but is a very big part of American Express — it accounts for close to a third of their earnings — but the real key will be how the card does over time. Charlie?

查理·芒格没什么补充的。

CHARLIE MUNGERNothing to add.

股票期权会计规则中“腐败赢了”

"Corruption won" in stock option accounting rule

沃伦·巴菲特第 5 区?

WARREN BUFFETTZone 5?

现场股东嗨,我是来自旧金山的菲利普·金(音)。我的问题跟 FASB 在股票期权提案上让步的事有关。反对这个提案的人争辩说,这会损害公司的资本形成,而且股票期权的成本早已反映在完全稀释后的在外流通股数中。我很好奇,你对此事有什么看法?

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, my name is Philip King (PH) from San Francisco. And my question has to do with how the FASB has caved in on the stock option proposal. And the people opposed to the proposal argue that it would hurt capital formation for companies and that the cost of stock options is already reflected in shares outstanding, in fully diluted calculations. And I was curious, what is your feelings about what's happened?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,在座各位凡是关注过这个问题的都知道——财务会计准则委员会(FASB)确实让步了,他们其实恨透了这件事。我是说,他们知道自己是对的。事实上,现在所谓的六大审计公司,很多年前大多数都支持这个立场。但在我看来,审计公司在那件事上向客户屈服了。从资本形成角度讲,我认为最明智的资本形成方式来自最准确的会计方法。我的意思是,如果所有公司——凡是名字以 A 到 M 开头的公司不用计提折旧,而 N 到 Z 开头的公司要计提,或者其他类似情况,那可能会帮助名字以 A 到 M 开头的公司形成资本。顺便说一句,它们大概都会改名字。但我不认为糟糕的会计有助于资本形成。事实上,我觉得长期来看,它会扭曲资本形成。因为如果我们用股票支付所有股东——我是说,所有为伯克希尔·哈撒韦工作的人——的报酬,然后不记任何工资费用,那也许能忽悠一帮人,让他们以为利润是真的。但在我看来,这对资本形成可不是什么进步。我真的认为——你知道,我私下和不少经理谈过这事。他们都明白。但他们更喜欢现在的局面。很多年前他们在华盛顿动用过大量政治资源。我现在觉得这件事得到了印证。这位数学教授——在我写了相关文章后,给我寄了些材料。我事后尽量找点证据来证明。我相信是在印第安纳州议会,有个议员提出了一项法案,要把圆周率 π 的数值改成 3。他说因为学校孩子们算这个 3.14159 太难了——(笑声)——太复杂了。他说得对。确实很难。而国会,在股票期权问题上,受到了各种压力,反过来向 FASB 和美国证券交易委员会施压,要求不把股票期权成本算作薪酬的一部分。我从来没见过哪个想要薪酬的人觉得,如果他拿到了当前的工资外加期权,不比只拿工资得到更多补偿。所以,他们认为那就是薪酬。我可以告诉你们,如果我们在伯克希尔历史上发行过期权,用于与整个公司业绩无关的事情,那我们就产生了成本,也许有几十亿美元,不管记不记账。这又回到了伯克利主教的问题:森林里一棵树倒了,没人听到声音,那它到底有没有声音?等等之类。但我觉得——我真的觉得,当你看到一群人如此施压——甚至威胁要撤回对 FASB 的财务支持——他们那么使劲地逼人,就为了让 π 保持在 3 而不是 3.14,说白了只是因为这事触及了他们的利益,你就难免对美国企业有点愤世嫉俗。不管怎样,现在这事好像暂时过去了。事实上,他们还在施压,要求把已经制定的标准进一步削弱。所以,企业美国里的私心照样活得好好的。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, as those of you have followed this issue — FASB did cave, and they were — they hated it. I mean, they knew they were right. Matter of fact, most of the, what are now, I guess, the big six auditing firms, many years ago, sided with the position. But in my opinion, the auditing firms caved to their clients, in that respect. In terms of capital formation, I would argue that the most intelligent form of capital formation follows from the most accurate form of accounting. I mean, it — if all the companies with — whose names began with A through M didn't have to count depreciation and all the ones with N through Z did, or something, you know, that might help in capital formation for companies that were — had names with A thru M. And incidentally, they probably all change their names. But I don't think that bad accounting is an aid to capital formation. In fact, I think probably over time, it distorts capital formation. Because if we were to pay all of the shareholders with — I mean, all of the people who worked for Berkshire Hathaway — in stock, and therefore record no wage expense, you know, we might be able to sucker in a bunch of people who thought the earnings were real. But that would not be a great step forward for capital formation, in my view. I really think that — you know, I've talked privately to a number of managers about this. And they understand it. But they, you know, they prefer the present situation. And they used a lot of muscle in Washington many years ago. And I think I have this authenticated now. This fellow — mathematics professor — sent me some material after I'd written this. I try to get a little proof after the fact when I can. I believe it was in the Indiana legislature, where a legislator introduced a bill to change the value of pi, the mathematical symbol pi, to three. Because he said that it was too difficult for the schoolchildren to work with this — (laughter) — complicated 3.14159. And he was right. I mean, it was difficult. And I — and Congress, in connection with the stock option question, received all kinds of pressure to, in turn, pressure FASB and the SEC to not count stock option costs as part of compensation. I've never met anybody that wanted to be compensated that felt that, if he received his present salary plus an option, he was not getting compensated more than if he just received a salary. So, he thought it was compensation. And I will tell you that if we’d been issuing options over a period of time at Berkshire for things unrelated to the performance of the entire business, that we would've had a cost, perhaps measuring in the billions of dollars, whether it was recorded or not. So, it goes back to Bishop Berkeley's question of whether a tree that falls in the forest and doesn't make a sound, you know, when — et cetera. But it — I think it is — I really think that it makes you a bit of a cynic about American business when you see the extent to which a group has pressured — even to the extent of talking about financial — withdrawing financial support from the Financial Accounting Standards Board — the degree to which they've pressured people to make sure the value of pi stays at three instead of 3.14, simply because it was their own ox that was being gored a bit. In any event, it’s — it looks like it's all over now for some time. In fact, now they're pressuring them to even weaken further the standards that have been set. So, self-interest is alive and well in corporate America. Charlie?

查理·芒格是啊,我觉得丢人现眼的一方赢了。而且我觉得——我觉得对文明社会来说,拥有扎实的工程学和完善的会计非常重要。这是一段非常令人遗憾的插曲,牵扯到了政客——牵扯到了风险投资人。我认为在某种程度上,这也暴露了教育体制的问题,这种事能被这么多人这样看待,而且看得这么错。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, I think dishonor won. And I think that — I think it is quite important for a civilization to have sound engineering and good accounting. And it is a very regrettable episode, leading politicians — leading venture capitalists. I think to some extent, it's an indictment of the educational system, that this thing could be so widely looked at, and so wrongly.

沃伦·巴菲特人们想财务造假,这已经够糟了。他们确实在财务上造假。但还想让造假被认可成制度——

WARREN BUFFETTIt's bad enough people want to cheat on their accounting. And they do cheat on their accounting. But to want it to be endorsed as the system —

查理·芒格是啊。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.

沃伦·巴菲特——真的有点令人作呕。

WARREN BUFFETT— is really kind of disgusting.

查理·芒格没错,腐败赢了。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, corruption won.

沃伦·巴菲特好,在这事上我们算还没拿定主意,我们接着去 6 区。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTWell, put us down on undecided on that and we'll move on to zone 6. (Laughter)

为什么伯克希尔股东大会没有视频

Why there's no video of Berkshire meetings

现场股东早上好,巴菲特先生、芒格先生,我是迈克·李钦,来自安大略省哈密尔顿。你们能考虑向股东提供这次股东大会的录像带吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERGood morning, Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, Mike Lee-Chin from Hamilton, Ontario. Could you consider availing a videotape of this meeting to us, the shareholders?

查理·芒格我没太听清。

CHARLIE MUNGERI didn't quite get that.

现场股东你们能考虑向股东提供这次股东大会的录像带吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERWould you consider availing this videotape of the shareholder — this particular shareholder meeting to us, the shareholders?

查理·芒格分发录像带?

CHARLIE MUNGERDistributing a videotape?

沃伦·巴菲特文字记录还是录像带?

WARREN BUFFETTA transcript or a videotape?

现场股东对。

AUDIENCE MEMBERYes.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们收到过好几次这个建议了。这是个好建议,我们也考虑过。但我们担心的是,那样会影响现场出席人数。我是说——(笑声)——我们可不想只有两个人在这里提问,然后发给几万人看。所以——(笑声)——到最后——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we've had that suggested a number of times. It's a good suggestion, and we've considered it. The thing we're worried about, in connection with that, is discouraging attendance. I mean, it — (laughter) — we'd hate to have two people here asking questions and then send it out to tens of thousands. So — (laughter) — in the end —

查理·芒格尤其是如果那样做还可能导致珠宝店的销售额下降的话。

CHARLIE MUNGERParticularly if it might make sales go down at the jewelry store.

沃伦·巴菲特对。(笑声和掌声)既然我们刚才还在抨击美国企业的虚伪,查理觉得他应该在我的评论里加上这一条。(笑声)但这事很难抉择,因为我们希望每个人都——当然,我们在年报中尽量覆盖很多主题。但我们喜欢股东大会这种形式——回答大量股东的问题。我们不想打击现场出席的积极性。让大家来提问也很有趣。如果人少很多,那很可能好问题也会少很多。所以我认为,更多人参与能提升大会的质量。但你大老远跑来了,我能理解你为什么对文字记录感兴趣。(笑)谢谢。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Laughter and applause) Since we were just attacking hypocrisy in American business, Charlie felt like he should add that to my comments. (Laughter) But we — it's a close call on that because we would like everybody — Of course, we try to cover a great many subjects in the annual report. But we like the idea of the meeting — answering a lot of shareholders questions. We don't want to discourage attendance. And it's fun to have everybody come in and ask questions. And the chances are, if we had far fewer people, we would have, you know, far more — far fewer — good questions. So that the quality of the meeting is enhanced, I think, by having a lot of people come. But you've come a long way, so I can understand why you might be interested in a transcript. (Laughs) I apprentice that. Thank you.

现场股东——还是不?这算同意还是不同意?

AUDIENCE MEMBER— or no. Is that a yes or a no?

沃伦·巴菲特这是——(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTIt's — (Laughter)

查理·芒格这是不同意。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt was a no.

沃伦·巴菲特不同意。

WARREN BUFFETTIt's a no.

现场股东好的。(掌声)

AUDIENCE MEMBEROK. (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特我们说的话大部分都是不同意,只不过表达方式各不相同。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTMost everything we say is a no. But we have various ways of getting there. (Laughter)

伯克希尔股东大会提振博尔斯海姆珠宝销售额

Berkshire meetings boost Borsheims' sales

沃伦·巴菲特好的。7 区,我能从另一个房间看到你。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Zone 7 from the other room, I can see you.

现场股东早上好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我想知道你们能否告诉我们波仙珠宝昨天的销售额,以及和去年相比怎么样?

AUDIENCE MEMBERGood morning, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. I was wondering if you could tell us what the sales at Borsheims were yesterday and how it compared to a year ago?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我可以告诉你和去年相比的情况。比去年高了 15%。而去年又比前年高了 40% 多。前年是多少我忘了。所以,我们一直在破纪录。但我们没公布具体数字。数字还挺大的。你们是一群很能花钱的主儿。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I can tell you how it compared to a year ago. They were 15 percent above a year ago. And a year ago it was 40-odd percent above the year before. And I forget how much that was before. So, we keep setting records. But we haven't announced any numbers. But it's a pretty good size number. You're a sporty crowd.

现场股东谢谢。(笑声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERThank you. (Laughter)

“傻子”都能成功经营伯克希尔

An "idiot" could successfully run Berkshire

沃伦·巴菲特1 区?

WARREN BUFFETTZone 1?

现场股东早上好。我叫帕特里克·特洪,来自佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡。首先,我看到,按你们的要求,很多人穿了红色,向玉米收割机队致敬。(掌声)当然,我支持的球队是——或者说曾是——迈阿密飓风队。我衣服里面穿着绿色和橙色。不过——如果我们输了,我很庆幸是输给了内布拉斯加和汤姆·奥斯本。我想向沃伦和查理提个请求,那就是,认识到伯克希尔·哈撒韦的内在价值和外在价值,都源于你们在收购成长型公司方面的联合技能,以及你们对公司资本进行稳健和专业的投资以实现增长,我想知道,万一,上帝保佑别发生,你们中的一人或两人出了什么事,导致你们无法参与战略决策,你们是否有接班计划可以执行?我真心希望你们正在培养一些人,能够继承你们的共同愿景,并像现在一样有效且盈利地管理公司资源。

AUDIENCE MEMBERGood morning. My name is Patrick Terhune from Fort Lauderdale, Florida. And first of all, I see, per your request, there are a lot of people who wore red in honor of the Cornhuskers. (Applause) Of course, my team was the — or is the Miami Hurricanes. And I've got my green and orange on under my clothes. So — but if we were to lose, I'm glad we lost to Nebraska and Tom Osborne. I've got a request for Warren and Charlie, and that is, recognizing that the value, both intrinsic and extrinsic, of Berkshire Hathaway, is the result of your combined skills in acquiring growth companies and with your prudent and expert investing of the company's capital for growth, I'd like to know if you have a plan — a succession plan — to be executed in the event, God forbid, something happens to one or both of you, which would remove your input to the strategic decisions. I sincerely hope you're in the process of developing individuals to carry forward your collective visions and to manage the company's resources as effectively and as profitably as is being done now.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我很感谢这个问题。答案是,我们确实非常在意这一点,因为查理和我——除了许多其他原因之外——我们都把自己净资产中很大比例放在了伯克希尔。而且我们俩谁也没想出办法,能在被卡车撞倒前 15 分钟恰好把股票全部卖掉。所以,我们不会比你们其他人抢先一步。因此,我们的持续利益——财务上的利益——会在我们去世后很久很久依然存在。而且它——通过基金会之类的方式——会流向我们非常希望拥有最大资源的组织。所以,我们确实有一些计划。我们不会指名道姓或类似的事。这并不像你可能想的那么棘手,因为我们拥有一批出色的企业。有些是全资拥有,有些是部分拥有。我不认为剃须刀片销量或可口可乐销量会在查理或我去世那天大幅下滑。我们有一些很棒的企业。全资拥有的企业也是如此。所以问题更多是未来资本配置的问题。你知道,这对查理和我现在就是个难题,只是因为规模太大——找到能用大笔资金做的有意义的事并不容易。有时候一年过去了,我们什么也没找到。另一些时候一年过去了,我们觉得找到了什么,结果发现我们错了。所以,这并不容易。但我们认为我们会让一些非常聪明的人来努力。而且我们不觉得如果第一年他们没找到什么就是世界末日,因为这些企业会运营得很好。我们在这方面有一个很大的优势,和几乎其他所有公司不同,我们现在和将来都愿意——甚至渴望——购买优秀企业的部分或全部股份。我是说,大多数管理层——大多数投资者只能购买企业的一部分。大多数管理层,在心理上,倾向于拥有自己能够运营的全部资产。我们——你知道,这就像,我记得伍迪·艾伦多年前说过,双性恋的好处是,周六晚上约到人的几率翻倍。(笑声)在这方面,我们可以走任何一边。(笑声)我们的继任者也会如此。所以非常——查理,你想补充点什么吗?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I appreciate that question. And the answer is, obviously, we do care enormously about that because both Charlie and I — in addition to a lot of other reasons, but in — we both have a very significant percentage of our net worth in Berkshire. And neither one of us has figured out how to sell it all exactly, you know, 15 minutes before we get hit by a truck. So, we will not have the jump on the rest of you. And therefore, our continuing interest will go — financially — will go well, well beyond our deaths. And it will — in terms of foundations or something like that, it will go to organizations that we care very much about having maximum resources available to. So, we do have some plans. We don't name names or anything of the sort. It's not quite as tough as you might think because we have a collection of fabulous businesses. Some of them owned totally, some of them owned in part. And I don't think razor blade sales or Coca-Cola sales are going to fall off dramatically the day Charlie or I die. It — we've got some great businesses. And then same is true of the wholly-owned businesses. So the question is more that of allocating capital in the future. And you know, that's a problem for Charlie and me right now, simply because of the size with — it's not easy to find things to do that make sense with lots of money. And sometimes a year will go by and we don't find anything. And other times a year goes by, and we think we found something, but it turns out we were wrong. So, it's not easy. But we think we will have some very smart people working on that. And we don't think it will be the end of the world if they don't find anything the first year, because the businesses will run very well. We have a big advantage in that, as contrasted to virtually almost every other company, we, now and in the future, are willing — eager — to buy parts of wonderful businesses or all of them. I mean, most managements have a — most investors are limited to buying parts of businesses. And most managers, psychologically, are geared to owning all of something that they can run themselves. We — you know, it's like, I think Woody Allen said some years ago, the advantage of being bisexual is it doubles your chances of a date on Saturday night. (Laughter) And we can go either direction, in that respect. (Laughter) And our successors will also. So very — Charlie, you want to add anything?

查理·芒格我认为很少有企业运营结构被设计成需要公司总部那么少持续智慧的程度。(笑声)一个只愿意坐在这里的白痴,在现任管理者去世很久之后,也能取得非常好的成绩。

CHARLIE MUNGERI think few business operations have ever been constructed to require so little continuing intelligence in corporate headquarters. (Laughter) An idiot who was willing just to sit here would have a very good record long after the present incumbents were dead.

沃伦·巴菲特我认为这是真的。

WARREN BUFFETTI think that's true.

查理·芒格是的。我觉得如果沃伦能继续活着,在配置新资本方面,会稍微好一点。我不认为我们会轻易取代沃伦。但是,你知道,我们不必像过去那样一直以同样的速度变富。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. I think it would be a little better if Warren would keep alive, in terms of allocating the new capital. I don't think we'll easily replace Warren. But, you know, we don't have to keep getting rich at the same rate we have in the past. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特这是平局投票。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTThat's a tie vote. (Laughter)

决策如此明显,连精确数字都不需要

Decisions so obvious that exact numbers aren't needed

沃伦·巴菲特2 区?

WARREN BUFFETTZone 2?

现场股东嗨,我是——

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, this —

沃伦·巴菲特(听不清)

WARREN BUFFETT(Inaudible)

现场股东——来自旧金山的基思·布里尔。我有一个问题。当你评估公司价值,并把你说到的未来收益折现回来时,你通常会看多少年?如果你没有一个通用的年数,你是如何得出那个时间段的?

AUDIENCE MEMBER— Keith Briar from San Francisco. I have a question. When you're valuing the companies and you discount back the future earnings that you talk about, how many years out do you generally go? And if you don't go out a general number of years, how do you arrive at that time period?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这是个很好的问题。而且——我是说,这是投资或购买企业的核心,我们认为这两者是一回事,但——这也是我们运作的框架。我是说,我们试图从企业能产生多少现金的角度来看待它们,如果我们买下全部,或者它们会产生多少,如果我们买下部分。这有区别。然后我们用多少折现率折现回来。我认为你的问题是关于我们看多远,等等。尽管我们可以用一个非常简单直接的公式来定义它,你知道,我们——实际上,我们从未坐下来写出过一组数字来应用那个公式。我们是在脑子里做的,显然,某种程度上。我是说,这就是全部意义所在。但没有任何纸张。从来就没有——从来没有一张纸显示我们对赫兹伯格、喜诗糖果或《布法罗新闻》的计算是什么样的,在这方面。所以,如果我给你们说些胡言乱语,比如,“嗯,我们算 18 年,然后加上一个终值,再做所有这些”,那就会给我们的分析赋予比实际更多的科学色彩。我们坐在办公室里,对每个企业或每笔投资都在思考那个问题。我们脑子里有折现率,大致如此。但我们真的希望决策对我们来说足够明显,以至于不需要进行详细计算。这是一个框架。但并不是说我们真的填入了所有变量。这么说公平吗,查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, that's a very good question. And it’s — I mean, it's the heart of investing or buying businesses, which we regard as the same thing, but — And it is the framework in which we operate. I mean, we are trying to look at businesses in terms of what kind of cash can they produce, if we're buying all of them, or will they produce, if we're buying part of them. And there's a difference. And then at what discount rate do we bring it back. And I think your question was how far out do we look, and all that. Despite the fact that we can define that in a very kind of simple and direct equation, you know, we are — we've never actually sat down and written out a set of numbers to relate that equation. We do it in our heads, in a way, obviously. I mean, that's what it's all about. But there is no piece of paper. And we never — there never was a piece of paper that shows what our calculation on Helzberg's or See's Candy or The Buffalo News was, in that respect. So, it would be attaching a little more scientific quality to our analysis than there really is, if I gave you some gobbledygook about, "Well, we do it for 18 years and stick a terminal value on and do all of this." We are sitting in the office thinking about that question with each business or each investment. And we have discount rates, in a general way, in mind. But we really like the decision to be obvious enough to us that it doesn't require making a detailed calculation. And it's the framework. But it's not applied in the sense that we actually fill in all the variables. Is that a fair way of stating it, Charlie?

查理·芒格是的。伯克希尔的运作方式,就像伟大的诺贝尔奖得主托马斯·亨特·摩根运营加州理工学院的生物系一样。他禁止了弗里登计算器,那是那个时代的电脑。人们说:“你怎么能这样?加州理工学院其他地方,弗里登计算器到处都是。”他说:“嗯,我们只是通过有条理的常识在捡拾这些金块,资源有限,只要我们能捡到这些大块金子,我们就不会求助于任何该死的砂矿开采。”这就是伯克希尔的运作方式。我希望砂矿开采的时代永远不会到来。有人曾因某项收购传唤我们的员工文件。当然,我们不仅没有任何员工文件,我们也没有任何员工。(笑声和掌声)

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. Berkshire is being run the way Thomas Hunt Morgan, the great Nobel laureate, ran the biology department at Caltech. He banned the Friden calculator, which was the computer of that era. And people said, "How can you do this? Every place else in Caltech, we have Friden calculators going everywhere." And he said, "Well, we're picking up these great nuggets of gold just by organized common sense, and resources are short, and we're not going to resort to any damn placer mining as long as we can pick up these major aggregations of gold." That's the way Berkshire works. And I hope the placer mining era will never come. Somebody once subpoenaed our staffing papers on some acquisition. And of course, not only did we not have any staffing papers, we didn't have any staff. (Laughter and applause)

“事情总会发生”,我们想做好准备

"Something will happen" and we want to be ready

沃伦·巴菲特3 区?

WARREN BUFFETTZone 3?

现场股东我是来自加利福尼亚州拉古纳比奇的汤姆·莫罗。我的问题是关于新股的发行。还有,正如查尔斯提到的,是不是有一个潜在的‘金矿’——你们目前有某个大型收购计划?在不透露战略机密的情况下。

AUDIENCE MEMBERI'm Tom Morrow (PH) from Laguna Beach, California. And the question I have to ask pertains to the issuance of the new stock. And again, as Charles mentioned, is there some potential gold mine out there that you have specifically in mind with the — some large acquisition that you have specifically in mind at this time, without revealing any strategic secrets?

沃伦·巴菲特是的。有些事我们想做。至于我们是否有机会去做,那是另一回事。但你知道,我会感到惊讶,如果未来五年我们一次都没用到优先股的话。正如我在报告里提到的,去年我们有一个机会,如果做成了,可能会涉及发行大约 10 亿美元——不,对不起,更多的——几十亿美元的优先股。那个交易我看是不会发生了。我是说,它——可能性只有百分之一——它可能会发生或类似的事——但很可能不会发生。另一方面,我们想做好准备。事情总会发生。我们的经验一向如此。你知道,我们经历过一些空窗期。这在股市和收购业务中都是如此。你知道,我在 1969 年关闭了合伙公司,因为找不到任何有意义的事可做。我很高兴我这么做了,因为那种情况在 1971 和 1972 年仍然存在。但在 1973 和 1974 年,你知道,有各种各样的事可做。这种情况会不时发生。人们的行为,特别是在市场上,未来会像过去一样愚蠢。它会在意想不到的时刻出现。但我们会得到机会去做点什么。当然,那更多地是现金类的购买,在市场上。但我们也会有机会用到优先股。我们会努力思考大事。也许找不到。但查理和我,事情越大,我们越感兴趣。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. There are things we would like to do. Whether we ever get a chance to do them or not is another question. But you know, I will be surprised if, in the next five years, we haven't used some preferred stock one time or another. As I mentioned in the report, we had one last year that if we'd done it, it would've involved the issuance of maybe a billion dollars’ worth of — no, more than that, I'm sorry — a couple billion dollars’ worth of preferred. That one isn't going to happen, in my view. I mean, it — there's one chance in a hundred it’ll — it could happen or something of the sort — but, probably, it isn't going to happen. On the other hand, we want to be prepared for it. Something will happen. That's always been our experience. You know, we have sat through some dry spells. And this is true in both the stock market and the acquisition business. You know, I closed up the partnership in 1969 because there was nothing that made sense to do. And I'm glad I did because that situation prevailed in '71 and '2. But in 1973 and '4, you know, there were all kinds of things to do. And that will happen from time to time. People will behave, particularly in markets, just as foolishly in the future as they have in the past. It'll come at unexpected times. But we will get a chance to do something. Now, that's more of a cash-type purchase, obviously, in the market. But we will get a chance to use the preferred. And we will try to think about big things. We may not find them. But Charlie and I, the larger something is, the more interested we are.

大资产让浮存金更灵活

Big assets make float more flexible

沃伦·巴菲特4 区。

WARREN BUFFETTZone 4.

现场股东来自洛杉矶的吉姆·莫斯。我在看你们的年报。对我来说,一个令人瞠目的数字是 1994 年的浮存金金额,成本低于零——我想是 30 亿美元。我想知道,你对这笔钱的投资有什么限制吗?还是它可以投入你的有价证券?

AUDIENCE MEMBERJim Moss (PH) from Los Angeles. I was reading through your annual report. And to me, an eye-popping number in there was the amount of float in 1994, at a cost of less than zero — I think it was $3 billion. And I was wondering if there are any restrictions on your investment of that money, or can that go into your marketable equity securities?

沃伦·巴菲特这个问题关于——我们在年报里放了一张长表,大约四年前开始引入,显示浮存金的金额和成本。那张表非常重要。就我们的运营业务来说,这可能是年报里最重要的一条信息。正如你所说,浮存金现在远远超过 30 亿美元——去年,得益于各种有利因素,包括我们的巨灾再保险业务表现不错,同时也因为我们其他保险业务做得非常好——好得惊人。这些浮存金的成本,也就是我们持有但最终不属于我们、会流向别人的那些钱,成本是负数,这是一项非常有价值的资产。问题是,我们在投资这些钱时有多大的灵活性,我认为这是你问题的核心。答案是,我们有很大的灵活性。这笔钱作为浮存金,而不是股本,实际上并没有在任何重要方面让我们处于劣势。现在,如果我们股本很少而浮存金很大,我们就会对自己施加很多限制,因为我们要非常确定自己有能力在适当的时候把浮存金分配给投保人、索赔人或其他什么人。但我们的净资产如此庞大,实际上,这些浮存金对我们来说几乎和股本资金一样有用。这意味着非常有用。这是伯克希尔的一大资产。

WARREN BUFFETTThe question relates to — we have that long table we put in — we introduced about four years ago or so in the annual report, that shows the amount of float and the cost of float. And that's a very important table. It — in terms of our operating businesses, that's probably the most important piece of information in the report. And that float is, as you noted, well over $3 billion now — last year, because of various favorable factors, including the fact that our super-cat business was favorable, but also, because our other insurance businesses did very well — amazingly well. The cost of that float, which is money that we're holding that eventually — does not belong to us, but will go to somebody else. The cost of that float was less than zero, and that is a very valuable asset. And the question is, how much flexibility we have in investing that, which I think was the core of your question. The answer is we have a lot of flexibility. We are not disadvantaged by that money being in float, as opposed to equity, really, in any significant way. Now, if we had a very limited amount of equity and a very large amount of float, we would impose a lot of restrictions on ourselves as to how we would do it, because we would want to be very sure that we were in a position to distribute that float, in effect, to policyholders, or claimants, or whatever it may be at the time that was appropriate. But we have so much net worth that, in effect, that float is just about as useful to us as equity money. And that means quite useful. It's a big asset of Berkshire's.

没被比尔德斯敦女将吓到

Not feeling threatened by Beardstown Ladies

沃伦·巴菲特我们看看,轮到第五区了。

WARREN BUFFETTLet's see, we've got zone 5.

现场股东我是苏珊·斯科特,来自威斯康星州麦迪逊。说个更严肃的话题,比尔德斯敦女将的成功开始让你感到威胁了吗?(笑声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERSusan Scott (PH) from Madison, Wisconsin. On a more serious note, are you beginning to feel threatened by the success of the Beardstown Ladies? (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特哪位女将?

WARREN BUFFETTWhich lady?

查理·芒格我——

CHARLIE MUNGERI —

沃伦·巴菲特是哪位女将?我——

WARREN BUFFETTWhich lady was that? I —

查理·芒格我没听明白。

CHARLIE MUNGERI didn't get it.

沃伦·巴菲特除了是哪位女将,我全听懂了。

WARREN BUFFETTI got everything except what lady that was.

现场股东比尔德斯敦女将,那个投资小组?

AUDIENCE MEMBERThe Beardstown Ladies, the investment group?

沃伦·巴菲特哦,那个小组。对,畅销书那帮人。对,我没读过那本书。在股东面前,我不好意思承认这一点——这本书,我想它大概是《纽约时报》畅销书排行榜上的第七或第八名,已经待了几个月了。那是一个投资小组,显然在跟全世界分享他们的成功秘诀。如果有人跟全世界分享投资方面的伟大见解,我总会起疑心。但目前我们还没感到威胁,没有。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTOh, that group. Yeah, the best-seller. Yeah. I have not read that book. I hate to admit that to an audience of shareholders, that I — This is a book that's — I think it's probably number, I don't know, seven or eight or something like that on the Times best-seller list, and been up there for a couple of months now. It's a group — an investment group — that, apparently, is sharing with the world their secrets of success. I'm always suspicious of people when they're sharing with the world any great ideas on investments. But we are not threatened at the moment, no. (Laughter)

护城河与城堡的经济学

Economics of the moat and the castle

沃伦·巴菲特第六区。

WARREN BUFFETTZone 6.

沃伦·巴菲特我是纽约市的迈克·阿赛尔。在年报的“当日之错”部分,你提到了你忽略的一条基本经济学规则。我想知道你习惯性做对的两三条最重要基本经济学规则是什么。换句话说,你用来为伯克希尔赚钱的基本经济学规则是什么?我不是说本·格雷厄姆的原则,而是那些可能出现在经济学教科书里的经济学规则。谢谢。

WARREN BUFFETTMike Assail (PH) from New York City. In the mistake du jour section of the annual report, you mentioned a fundamental rule of economics that you missed. I'd like to know the two or three most important fundamental rules of economics you habitually get right. In other words, what are the fundamental rules of economics you used to make money for Berkshire? And I'm not talking about Ben Graham's principles here, but rather, rules of economics which may be found in an economics textbook. Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特我们——对,我们试图——我是说,我们在投资和收购企业时,试图遵循本的原则。但最重要的事情是——你知道,我们想做的就是找到一家拥有宽阔且持久护城河的企业,保护一座绝佳的经济城堡,城堡里有一位诚实的主人。本质上,这就是商业的全部。我是说,你想成为城堡的主人本人。那样的话,最后一个因素你就不用担心了。但你试图——我们试图找到一家企业,由于这样或那样的原因——可能是因为它是在某个领域成本最低的生产者,可能是因为它拥有天然的经济特许权,源于表面能力,可能是因为它在消费者心目中的位置,可能是因为技术优势,或者任何原因,反正它周围有这条护城河。然后我们——接着我们必须决定的是——在资本主义体系下,所有护城河都会受到攻击,所以每个人都会尝试——如果你有座大城堡,人们就会想办法攻进去。我们必须决定的是——在资本主义里,大多数护城河都不值一提。我是说,这就是它的本质。而且这是一件建设性的事情。但我们想弄清楚的是——是什么在保护那座城堡?为什么它还能屹立不倒?什么因素能让它五年、十年、二十年后仍然屹立,或者导致它倒塌?关键因素是什么?它们有多持久?它们在多大程度上依赖城堡主人的天才?如果护城河让我们感觉不错,我们就试图判断主人会不会把一切都据为己有,他会不会拿收益干蠢事等等。这就是我们看待企业的方式。查理,你想补充吗?

WARREN BUFFETTWe — Yeah, we try to — I mean, we try to follow Ben's principles, in terms of the attitude we bring toward both investing and in buying businesses. But the most important thing you can — you know, what we're trying to do is we're trying to find a business with a wide and long-lasting moat around it, surround — protecting a terrific economic castle with an honest lord in charge of the castle. And in essence, that's what business is all about. I mean, you want to be the lord of the castle, yourself. In which case, you don't worry about that last factor. But what you’re trying to — what we're trying to find is a business that, for one reason or another — it can be because it's the low-cost producer in some area, it can be because it has a natural franchise because of surface capabilities, it could be because of its position in the consumers' mind, it can be because of a technological advantage, or any kind of reason at all, that it has this moat around it. And then our — then what we have to decide is — all moats are subject to attack in a capitalistic system, so everybody is going to try and — if you've got a big castle in there, people are going to be trying to figure out how to get to it. And what we have to decide — and most moats aren't worth a damn in, you know, in capitalism. I mean, that's the nature of it. And it's a constructive thing that that's the case. But we are trying to figure out what is keeping — why is that castle still standing? And what's going to keep it standing or cause it not to be standing five, 10, 20 years from now. What are the key factors? And how permanent are they? How much do they depend on the genius of the lord in the castle? And then if we feel good about the moat, then we try to figure out whether, you know, the lord is going to try to take it all for himself, whether he's likely to do something stupid with the proceeds, et cetera. But that's the way we look at businesses. Charlie, you want to add anything?

查理·芒格嗯,我觉得他想让你用经济学的普通说法翻译一下。诚实的主人就是低代理成本。这是经济学的术语。微观经济上的商业优势,多半是规模优势——市场主导地位的规模,这可以是一家零售商,在进货更便宜和每平方英尺销售额更高方面有巨大优势。所以你——基本上,你谈论的是规模经济。你还可以有智力的规模。换句话说,你可以有一个智力超群的主人,他有很大优势。所以——基本上,你谈论的是规模优势和低代理成本。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think he wants it translated into the ordinary terms of economics. The honest lord is low agency cost. That's the word in economics. And the microeconomic business advantages are, by and large, advantages of scale — scale of market dominance, which can be a retailer that just has huge advantages in terms of buying cheaper and enjoying higher sales per square foot. So you’re — by and large, you're talking economies of scale. You can have scale of intelligence. In other words, you can have a lord with enough extra intelligence that he has a big advantage. So you’re — by and large, you're talking scale advantages and low agency costs.

沃伦·巴菲特对,在某种程度上,查理和我想区分两类企业:一类是你只需要聪明一次的企业,另一类是你必须一直保持聪明的企业。零售业就是你必须一直保持聪明的典型案例。但你时刻都在受到攻击。人们会走进你的店铺。如果你做得很成功,他们第二天就会走进你的店铺,试图弄清楚你成功的秘诀是什么,他们能不能移植过去,也许再根据自己的情况加点什么。所以,在零售业你不能吃老本。还有其他一些企业,你只需要聪明一次,至少能管很长时间。以前有一位南方出版商,他的报纸办得很成功。有人问他成功的秘诀。他说,垄断和裙带关系。(笑声)我是说,他并不傻。他不自欺欺人。如果你三十年前拥有一家大电视网的附属台,那么优秀管理和糟糕管理之间仍有巨大差异。我是说,巨大差异。但就算你是个糟糕的管理者,你基本上也能赚大钱。因为拥有电视网附属台这一个决定,就足以克服之后几乎所有的缺陷。但如果你第一个在零售业或类似领域想出某个概念,那就不一样了。我是说,你必须每天都出去捍卫它。理想情况下,你想让优秀的管理者去管理优秀的企业。这就是我们寻找的。但正如我们过去指出的,如果两者只能选一个,那就选优秀的企业。查理,还有吗?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, to some extent, Charlie and I try and distinguish between businesses where you have to have been smart once and businesses where you have to stay smart. And, I mean, retailing is a good case of a business where you have to stay smart. But you can — you are under attack all of the time. People are in your store. If you're doing something successful, they're in your store the next day trying to figure out what it is about your success that they can transplant and maybe add a little something on in their own situation. So, you cannot coast in retailing. There are other businesses where you only have to be smart once, at least for a very long time. There was once a southern publisher who was doing very well with his newspaper. And someone asked him the secret of his success. And he said monopoly and nepotism. (Laughter) And I mean, he wasn't so dumb. I mean, he didn't have any illusions about himself. And if you had a big network of television affiliates station 30 years ago, there's still a major difference between good management and bad management. I mean, a major difference. But you could be a terrible manager and make a fortune, basically. Because the one decision to own the network TV affiliate overcame almost any deficiency that existed from that point forward. And that would not be true if you were the first one to come up with some concept in retailing or something of the sort. I mean, you would have to be out there defending it every day. Ideally, you know, is you want terrific management at a terrific business. And that's what we look for. But as we pointed out in the past, if you have to choose between the two, get a terrific business. Charlie, any more?

查理·芒格没有了。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo.

对堪萨斯城赫兹伯格的称赞

Compliments for Helzbergs of Kansas City

沃伦·巴菲特我们看看,下一个是第七区吧?

WARREN BUFFETTLet's see, zone 7, I believe is next?

现场人士第七区没有提问。

VOICENo questions from zone 7.

沃伦·巴菲特好的。第一区呢?

WARREN BUFFETTOK. How about zone 1?

现场股东我是来自堪萨斯城的保罗·米勒。首先,我想就你收购总部位于堪萨斯城的赫兹伯格珠宝店说几句。你曾评论过巴尼特·赫兹伯格在零售方面的作为。对我们堪萨斯城人来说,你同时收获了巴尼特和雪莉·赫兹伯格,他们是堪萨斯城慈善事业的第一家庭。对在座的股东来说,赫兹伯格一家是很好的人。能让他们加入这个企业群体,充分说明了沃伦·巴菲特是怎样的人,也说明了他们确实是基于管理层和人去选择公司的。所以,伯克希尔·哈撒韦能吸纳赫兹伯格一家,值得称赞,也感谢赫兹伯格一家为堪萨斯城所做的一切。现在,我——(掌声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERPaul Miller (PH) from Kansas City. First, I'd like to comment on your purchase of Kansas City-based Helzberg Jewelers. You commented about Barnett Helzberg and his — what he's done, retailing-wise. For those of us in Kansas City, you've also picked up Barnett and Shirley Helzberg, who are the first family in philanthropy in Kansas City. And for the shareholders in this room, the Helzbergs are wonderful people. And to have them added to this group of companies says miles about Warren Buffett and that they pick companies based upon their management and their people. So, kudos to Berkshire Hathaway for picking up the Helzbergs, and thanks to the Helzbergs for everything they've done to Kansas City. Now, my — (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(掌声)

WARREN BUFFETTAppreciate that. (Applause)

为子公司估值

Putting a value on the subsidiaries

现场股东我的问题跟价值有关。我们在年报里可以看到,比如购买《华盛顿邮报》花了 1000 万美元,现在价值 4.2 亿美元。但要判断其他非上市公司群体——内布拉斯加家具城、波仙珠宝等等——的价值,相对于多年来的购买价格,它们今天的价值如何,我们怎么去理解这个价值?它又是如何在年报里体现的?

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy question relates to value. We can look in the annual report, and we can all see the purchase of a Washington Post, for instance, for $10 million that has a value today of 420 million. But discerning the value of the other consortium of non-publicly traded businesses, the Nebraska Furniture Marts, the Borsheims, et cetera — the value of their purchase price over the years versus their value today, how can we understand that value and how is it reflected in the annual reports?

沃伦·巴菲特对,我们尽量——这是个很好的问题。我们尽量在年报里提供我们自己回答这个问题时会想要的信息。其中一部分,我们放在了那些注明“非 GAAP 会计准则”的页面里。但那里有很多有用的信息。我们没有给每家公司都贴一个数字。不过我们会尽量提供足够的信息,关于大企业动用的资本、利润率这类指标,这样你们做出的估算大概会跟我们自己的判断差不多。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well we try to — that's a good question. We try to give you the information that we would want in answering that question, in the annual report. Part of it, we do in those pages where we say it's not according to GAAP accounting. But there's a lot of useful information in there. We’re not — we don't stick a number on each company. But we try to give you enough information about the capital employ, the margins, and all of that sort of thing on the bigger businesses that you can make estimates that are probably just about as good as ours.

沃伦·巴菲特查理和我并不需要比年报更多的信息,就能对控股业务的整体价值得出相当准确的判断。我们也并未隐瞒任何我们认为对评估这些业务确实重要的信息。不过你说得对,有价证券比全资子公司更容易判断——至少从当期数字上看是这样。全资子公司里,总体而言,有些的价值远高于账面上所记载的。我们对所有这些业务基本上都感觉相当满意。而且可以说,多年来它们确实表现得极为出色。我猜它们未来也会继续运转良好。我们旗下不少业务的经理人今天就在现场。我不会一一介绍,因为人数太多,那会花很长时间。但你提到了《华盛顿邮报》。前排,靠近前排的位置,请可口可乐公司的唐·基奥站起来一下好吗?(掌声)还有《华盛顿邮报》的凯·格雷厄姆。(掌声)以及大都会公司的汤姆·墨菲。(掌声)

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie and I would not need more information than is in the report to come up with a pretty good idea of what the controlled businesses are worth. And there's no information we're holding back that we think would be of any real importance in evaluating those businesses. But you're right, it's a lot easier with marketable securities than it is — at least in terms of current numbers — than it is with the wholly-owned businesses. The wholly-owned businesses, generally speaking, some of them are worth a whole lot more than we’ve — than they're carried on the books for. And we feel pretty good about, essentially, all of them. But they’re — they've turned out remarkably well, I would say that, over the years. And my guess is that they keep working pretty well. We have managers in a number of those businesses here. I'm not going to introduce them all because we have so many that it would take a considerable period of time. But you named The Washington Post. In the front row there, close to the front row, we have Don Keough, would you step up, of Coca-Cola? (Applause) And we have Kay Graham for the Post. (Applause) And Tom Murphy from Cap Cities. (Applause)

查理·芒格保罗·哈森也在吗?

CHARLIE MUNGERIs Paul Hazen here, too?

沃伦·巴菲特我本想——嗯,还有很多。我不想弄成——但我注意到他们三个刚好坐在一起,而他们三家加起来,我们到目前为止已经赚了大约 65 亿美元的利润。(笑声)所以,我得说,这真是——(掌声)——这三家业务确实极其出色。就像——我强调“到目前为止”,因为我们希望将来能报出更大的数字。我们拥有一批经理人,无论是在控股公司还是部分持股的公司里,为伯克希尔创造了不可思议的价值。我和查理每天就是坐在那里看报纸,翻阅各种杂志,或者看看 OJ 辛普森案什么的。(笑声)而这些人在外面为我们创造了巨大的价值。所以,我们不会改变这种模式。那——

WARREN BUFFETTAnd I'm going to try and do — well, there's a whole bunch more. I don't want to get — but I — but those three were sitting together and I was struck by the fact that if — those three combined, we have about 6 1/2 billion of profit in, so far. (Laughs) So, I would say that that's a — (Applause) — Those are three businesses that have been fantastic. And like — I emphasize "so far" because we'd like to be able to name a bigger number in the future. But we have a group of managers, both at the controlled companies and at the partly-owned companies, that have just created incredible value for Berkshire. I mean, Charlie and I sit around and read the paper every day and a lot of magazines and things, watch OJ Simpson or whatever it may be. (Laughter) And these people are out there creating a ton of value for us. So, we're not going to change it. That —

所罗门兄弟的文化冲突

Salomon Brothers culture clash

沃伦·巴菲特好了,我们看看。我想,现在是第二区?还是……是吧。

WARREN BUFFETTNow, let's see. I think, zone — is it zone 2 now? Or is it — yeah.

现场股东你好。我是来自科罗拉多州狄龙的蒂姆·帕尔默(音)。我有一个关于所罗门的问题。过去一周里,《纽约时报》《华尔街日报》,还有《商业周刊》都刊登了文章,对那边的管理层现状以及你的选择说了不少不太客气的话。似乎存在某种文化冲突。我不确定这是不是事实。但我想知道,第一,你是如何在坏消息成为新闻之前就让自己得知的?还有,所罗门那边到底发生了什么,薪酬计划什么的?你觉得从文化角度看,这事最终会怎样?

AUDIENCE MEMBERHello. I'm Tim Palmer (PH) from Dillon, Colorado. I have a question for you regarding Salomon. In the past week, there's been an article in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and I believe it's Businessweek, that were rather unflattering, as far as what's going on with the management and your selection. There seems to be a — somewhat of a cultural clash there. I don't know that to be a fact. But I wondered, number one, how you keep yourself open to bad news before it's news. And what is going on in Salomon there, the compensation plan, et cetera? How do you think that, culturally, is going to work out?

沃伦·巴菲特查理和我始终——我们永远对坏消息比对好消息更感兴趣。我们觉得好消息自己会处理妥当。我们只为那些替我们工作的人下过几条指令。其中一条是像所有者一样思考。第二条是遇到坏消息立刻告诉我们,因为好消息自己会照顾自己。我们能接受坏消息,但我们不喜欢坏消息姗姗来迟。所以,我想说,就所罗门而言,现在和过去一直存在某种文化冲突。而且,在那种紧张程度很高的业务里,几乎总会有文化冲突。无论是娱乐业、投资银行业还是体育业,当员工的薪酬与所有者的回报之间产生矛盾时,就一定会出现某种紧张。我认为,从我去所罗门的第一天起,甚至早在那之前,这种压力就一直存在。我的意思是——这并不意外。这是可以理解的。实际上,你在航空业也能看到员工与资本之间的这种紧张,它已经给航空业带来了极其糟糕的结果。在那里工作的人——我不是特指全美航空,虽然它是个例子,但问题不止于此。他们签署了合同,正如我在年报中指出的,那是在更早的年代签订的,在很多情况下,这些合同本质上不允许资本获得任何报酬。这营造了很大的紧张关系。投资银行业或华尔街通常没有那样的合同,但类似的紧张依然存在。而要改变一种文化,第一,需要时间,第二,可能需要对人员做一些调整。我的意思是,如果你想改变,我认为这并不令人意外。我觉得——你找不出比鲍勃·德纳姆和德里克·莫汉更好的两个人了。他们聪明、正派、愿意非常努力地工作。会有人接受他们想推行的安排,也会有人不接受。离开的人中,远非所有人都是自愿离开的,但大部分是。不过也有些不是。去年所罗门亏了很多钱。许多离开的人对某些亏损并不负有责任,但有些人确实有责任。所以,这不是你在报纸上宣布几个名字就能解决的事。有些人离开是因为他们能在别处赚更多钱。而有些人离开,可能是因为我们认为没有他们我们能赚更多。(笑声)查理?

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie and I are always — we're more interested in bad news, always, than good news. We figure good news takes care of itself. And one — we only give a couple of instructions to people when they go to work for us. And one of them is to think like an owner. And the second one is to just tell us the bad news immediately, because good news takes care of itself. And we can take bad news, but we don't like bad news late. So, I would say, in connection with Salomon, that there is, and has been, some culture clash. And there probably almost always would be a culture clash in a business where there is that amount of tension. Whether it be the entertainment business, or the investment banking business, or the sports business, there's going to be a certain amount of tension when — between compensation to the people that work there and compensation to the owners. And I think there's been some — that strain has existed at Salomon from the day I was first there and far before that. I mean, I — that was no surprise. It's understandable. You're seeing a tension, actually, in the airline business between the people that work there and capital. And it's produced terrible results in the airline business. And the people that work there have been able to — and I'm not talking about USAir specifically, although that's a case. But it goes beyond that. They have had contracts, which were, as I pointed out in the report, were executed in an earlier age, which, essentially, will not allow — in many cases — capital to receive any compensation. And that produces a lot of tension. You don't have contracts like that in the investment banking business or Wall Street, generally. But you have that same sort of tension. And changing a culture around, A, takes time and, B, probably takes some change in people. I mean, I don't think that's a great surprise if you expect to do it. I have — I don't think you can find two better people than Bob Denham and Deryck Maughan. They're smart, they're high-grade, they're willing to work very hard. And there will be people that buy into the arrangements they want to have. And there are people that won't. Not all of the people that have left, by a long shot, are leaving of their own volition, but most of them are. But some aren't. I mean, there — Salomon lost a lot of money last year. And many of the people that have left were not responsible for some of those losses, but some of the people were. So, that is not something where you announce names in the paper. But some people are leaving because they can make more money elsewhere. And some people are, maybe, leaving because we think we can make more money without them. (Laughter) Charlie?

查理·芒格对。我并不觉得所罗门内部那些被谈论的紧张状况有多么不寻常。我认为这在华尔街各处基本都存在,甚至那些试图模仿华尔街的银行也一样。我觉得这本来就是这一行的特性。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, I don't think the tensions that have been commented on within Salomon are all that unusual. I think they pretty well exist everywhere on Wall Street. And even in the banks, which have tried to imitate Wall Street. I just think it comes with the territory.

沃伦·巴菲特我不知道今年高盛合伙人的离职比例是多少,但他们遇到糟糕年份时,显然也会产生紧张。而且他们时不时就会遇到糟糕年份。人人都会碰到。但高盛的合伙人——无限责任合伙人——在截至 1994 年 11 月 30 日的财年,干得并不好,可能根本就没赚到钱。而前几年他们赚过大钱,之后几年很可能也会再赚大钱。但在没赚到钱的那一年,人员流动就很大。也许其中一些流动,也并非完全出于你读到离开的那些无限责任合伙人的自愿。我不了解那件事的具体情况。但华尔街在任何情况下都存在一定程度的紧张。当一家公司赚不到钱时,那种紧张感就特别强烈。

WARREN BUFFETTI don't know what percentage of the Goldman Sachs partners left this year, but they had tensions that were produced, obviously, when they had a bad year. And they're going to have a bad year from time to time. Everyone's going to have a bad year. But it — the partners — the general partners — of Goldman Sachs, in the year ended November 30th, 1994, did not do well. They may have not done anything at all. And they’d made some very big money in prior years. And they'll probably make some very big money in subsequent years. But in the year when they didn't make any money, it was a lot of turnover. And maybe some of that turnover, also, was not all at the volition of the general partners that you read about leaving. I don't know the facts in that case. But there's a certain amount of tension that exists in Wall Street under any circumstances. And when you aren't making money, there's a lot of tension.

本·格雷厄姆《证券分析》的最佳版本

Best edition of Ben Graham's "Security Analysis"

沃伦·巴菲特第三区?

WARREN BUFFETTZone 3?

现场股东是的,我叫迈克尔·约翰逊,奥马哈本地人,不过我和家人目前侨居沙特阿拉伯的达兰。我的问题与内在价值以及本·格雷厄姆的《证券分析》有关。今年早些时候我读了珍妮特·洛的书,她说你更倾向于《证券分析》第一版或第二版,而不是第四版。但第四版似乎更偏向你最近几年在年报里所说的,成长和价值本就密不可分。所以,如果像我这样一直在钻研证券分析的人——我觉得我花在这上面的时间相当多——你认为我需要去弄到那些早期版本吗?还是说,第四版更接近你后来转向的方向,比如你那些价值与成长密不可分的评论?

AUDIENCE MEMBERYeah. My name is Michael Johnson. I'm a native to Omaha, and however, my family and I are Americans living abroad in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. My question is related to intrinsic value and Ben Graham's "Security Analysis." I read a book earlier this year by Janet Lowe, who said that you were more toward the first or second editions of "Security Analysis" and not so much toward the fourth. Yet, the fourth edition seemed to move more toward growth and value being kind of joined at the hip, like you've said in your last few annual reports. And so, if I'm a person who's always studying security analysis like I do — I think I spend more time with that — do you think I need to get those first editions? Or is the fourth edition kind of more of what you've moved toward, with your comments such as value and growth are joined at the hip?

沃伦·巴菲特顺便提一下,珍妮特·洛今天也在场。她写了一本关于本·格雷厄姆的出色著作。我建议还没读过的各位去买一本来读。我仍然更喜欢——我觉得第二版比第一版便宜不少,而且内容基本一致。所以,我推荐第二版。这与价值和成长观点的分歧无关。我只是认为,第二版从头到尾的推理更严密、更连贯;那个版本也是本·格雷厄姆——由戴维·多德以各种方式协助——百分之百倾注心血撰写的最后一版。在我看来,后来的版本在相当程度上已经偏离了格雷厄姆的思想和他的表达方式。不过,别人想读后来的版本,我毫无意见。但我确实认为,如果你是一名认真钻研证券分析的学生,把第二版读通读懂,就会有不错的表现。很多当年犯下的错误,比如垃圾债券、会计伎俩之类的问题,在 1934 年的第一版和随后 1940 年的第二版中都有论述。里面干货极多。再往后的版本——我得承认,我没有像读早期版本那样仔细地读过最后一版。但给我的印象是,里面讲的东西没那么重要,表达得也没那么好,而且定价更贵。(笑声)查理,你有什么看法?

WARREN BUFFETTJanet Lowe is here, incidentally, today. She wrote a very good book on Ben Graham. I recommend that any of you that haven't read it, go out and buy a copy. The — I still prefer the — I think the second edition is cheaper to buy than the first edition, by some margin. And I think it's basically the same book. So, I — that's the one I would recommend. I — it isn't because of differences on value and growth. I just think that the reasoning is better and more consistent throughout the second edition, which is really the last one that Ben was the hundred percent — along with Dave Dodd helping him in various ways — was responsible for writing. So, I think that the book has gotten away, to quite an extent, from both Graham's thinking and from his way of expressing himself. So I really — but I have no quarrel with anybody that wants to read later editions at all. I do think, probably, the second edition, if you're a real student of security analysis and you read and understand that, you’ll — you should do all right. In terms of — a lot of the mistakes that were made, in terms of junk bonds and accounting and all of that sort of thing, were covered in 1934 in that first edition, and subsequently in 1940 in the second edition. There's a lot of meat in there. Later on, you know — I must admit, I didn't read the last edition as carefully as the earlier ones. But it struck me, it was — it — what was said was not as important and it wasn't said as well. And it was more expensive. (Laughter) Charlie, you have any thoughts on that?

查理·芒格没有。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo.

为什么伯克希尔不卖掉企业

Why Berkshire doesn't sell businesses

沃伦·巴菲特4 区?

WARREN BUFFETTZone 4?

现场股东对,我是来自纽约市的杰夫·佩斯金。我想问的是,你在年报里说,很明显,由于伯克希尔的规模,未来的回报恐怕无法与过去的回报相提并论。接着你又表示,其中一个潜在的不利因素是,你确实不喜欢卖掉自己拥有的公司。我想知道其中的逻辑是什么,假如你有一家公司或一项投资,你认为它未来的表现比不上你把钱投到别处,你坚持持有而不将资金重新配置到其他地方的理由到底是什么?

AUDIENCE MEMBERYes, Jeff Peskin (PH) from New York City. And I was — I have a question on the annual report where you say that, obviously, going forward, due to the size of Berkshire, the returns going forward probably won't match the returns of the past. And then you go on to state that one thing that may hinder that is the fact that you don't really like to sell companies that you own. And I would just like to know what the reasoning is in that, if you've got a company or investment that you don't think is going to do as well as where you can put the money going forward. What really the reasoning is for holding on and not redeploying the money elsewhere?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我稍微纠正你一下。第一,我没有说我们可能比过去做得更差。我说的是,我们一定会比过去做得更差。我的意思是,我们不可能复制过去那种百分比增长率。你知道,如果我们——在不长的时间里——假设我们不派发任何股息——我们就会吞掉整个 GDP,虽然我们偶尔也会琢磨这事儿——(笑声)——但我们并不真的指望能实现这个目标。嗯——第二点,跟规模有关。这跟我们不愿卖出企业无关,因为这种不愿卖出已经持续了几十年。但规模可没有存在几十年。规模嘛——你知道,把大约 120 亿美元翻倍,比翻倍 10 到 20 亿更难,而翻倍 10 到 20 亿,又比翻倍 1.2 亿更难。我的意思是,这一点毫无疑问。所以,最终——实际上,现在规模就已经在拖累业绩了。这并不意味着业绩会非常糟糕,但它确实意味着 23% 的回报率是个历史数据,没有任何预测价值。

不愿卖出企业,就像我说的,这可以追溯到很久以前。这不是——嗯——如果这损害了业绩,那也是微乎其微的。这不过是事实——是查理和我的一种态度使然:如果我们想过好自己的日子,我们会发现,很难找到那些我们愿意与之交往的生意人。一旦找到了,我们就会乐在其中。我们觉得没必要为了每年多赚半个点或一个点——更高数字也别试探我们——就到处结束我们与别人的友谊、联系或关系。这对我们来说毫无意义。我们不想让自己陷入那种行为模式。我们知道,如果我们是私人公司,我们肯定不会那么做。

现在,在伯克希尔,我们认为我们已经明确表达了这一立场。我们希望让每个可能加入我们的人都清楚这一点,因为我们不想让他们期待我们会那么做。我们希望他们期待我们努力工作、取得像样的结果,并确保股东得到和我们一样的结果,诸如此类。但我们不想与我们的同胞股东达成任何隐含的契约,导致我们不得不去做自己确实不想做的事。如果这就是多赚钱的代价,那这个代价我们不想付。我们也放弃了其他东西,但这一点可能有人不认同我们。所以,我们希望确保每个人在加入前都完全理解这一点。这是你们在这里买到的部分特质。这可能——我反正觉得它不会对业绩有多大损害。但就算有影响,那也是你们和我们在一起时所要接受的局限。查理?

(掌声)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I'll just correct you just slightly. A, I didn't say we'd probably do worse than the past. I said we will do worse than the past. I mean, there's no way we can match percentage numbers of the past. That, you know, we would — in a period that would not take that long, we would — assuming we paid out nothing — we would gobble up the whole GDP, which is something we may think about, occasionally, but — (laughter) — we don't really expect to accomplish. The — But — and the second point, that relates to size. That does not relate to our unwillingness to sell businesses, because that unwillingness has existed for decades. But the size has not existed for decades. The size is — you know, doubling 12 billion or so is harder than doubling 1 billion-2, which was harder than doubling 120 million. I mean, there's no question about that. So, eventually — well, already it will be a drag on performance. It doesn't mean that the performance will be terrible, but it does mean that 23 percent is an historical figure. It has no predictive value. The unwillingness to sell businesses, like I say, goes back a long way. That is not what — that — If that hurts performance, it's peanuts. That's simply a fact — a function of the attitude Charlie and I have, is that if we want to live our lives, we find it a rarity when we find people in the business that we want to associate with. When we do find that, we enjoy it. We don't see any reason to make an extra half a percent a year or 1 percent a year — don't try us on higher numbers. But the — (laughter) — we don't see a reason to go around ending friendships we have with people, or contact, or relationships. It just doesn't make any sense to us. It — We don't want to get committed to that sort of activity. We know we wouldn't do it if we were a private company. Now, in Berkshire, we feel we've enunciated that position. We want to get that across to everybody who might join with us because we don't want them to expect us to do it. We want them to expect us to work hard to get a decent result, and to make sure that the shareholders get the same result we get, and all of that sort of thing. But we don't want to enter into any implicit contract with our fellow shareholders that will cause us to have to behave in a way that we really don't want to behave. If that's the price of making more money, it's a price we don't want to pay. There's other things we forgo also, but that is the one that people might disagree with us on. So, we want to be very sure that everybody understands that, going in. That's part of what you buy here. And it may — I don't think it'll hurt performance that much anyway. But to the extent that it does, it's a limitation you get with us. Charlie? (Applause)

查理·芒格我不认为有任何方法可以精确衡量这一点。但我的猜测是,如果去评估一些或许可以称之为统帅伯克希尔旗下各运营企业的那群人的品格——他们中很多人最初是这些企业的创建者,并且是所在社区的杰出公民,比如赫茨伯格家族——我不觉得美国有哪家公司在这方面比我们做得更好。你可以说我们是在收集高品格的人,因为我们肯定自己造不出来。但无论如何,这是一个非同凡响的体系。我们为什么要去胡乱折腾它呢?

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't think there's any way to measure it, exactly. But my guess is that, if you could appraise something you might call the character of the people that are running the operating businesses in Berkshire, many of whom helped create the businesses in the first place, and are leading citizens in their community, like the Helzbergs — I don't think there's any other corporation in America that has done as well as we have, if you measure the human quality of the people who are in it. Now, you can say we've collected high-grade people because we sure as hell couldn't create them. But one way or another, this is a remarkable system. And why would we tinker with it?

沃伦·巴菲特要想——(掌声)——吸引高品格的人,你自己大概也得力求举止得体。本来就是——再说了,换一种做法也毫无乐趣可言。我在 60 年代管理合伙公司时,对这种处境多少有些体会。当时人们加入我的合伙公司,我的职责就是竭尽全力交出最好的回报。我发现,一旦介入某门生意,就会出现一些我不喜欢的选项。所以,伯克希尔在这方面让我满意得多。

WARREN BUFFETTIf you want to — (applause) — attract high-grade people, you probably ought to try and behave pretty well yourself. I mean it’s just — besides, it wouldn't be any fun doing the other. I mean, it — I was in that position, a little bit, when I ran the partnership back in the '60s. And I really — you know, people were coming into partnership with me. And my job was to turn out the best return that we could. And I found that if I got into a business, that presented certain alternatives that I didn't like. So, Berkshire's much more satisfactory in that respect.

聚焦格雷厄姆的三条原则

Focus on Graham's three principles

沃伦·巴菲特5 区?

WARREN BUFFETTZone 5?

现场股东约翰·兰金,来自科罗拉多州柯林斯堡。谢谢你们款待我们。在《巴菲特之道》那本书里,作者描述了你用来评估普通股内在价值的资本增长模型。我的问题是,你是不是也还在用本·格雷厄姆在《聪明的投资者》中描述的那个公式,就是在评估预期增长的同时,也考虑账面价值?在我看来,用格雷厄姆公式算出来的公允价值,似乎总是比《巴菲特之道》里以及你在年报里提到的现金流折现法算出的现值稍稍高一点。

AUDIENCE MEMBERJohn Rankin (PH), Fort Collins, Colorado. Thanks for having us. In the book, "Warren Buffett Way," the author describes the capital growth model that you've used to evaluate intrinsic value in common stock purchases. My question is, do you also still use the formula Ben Graham described in "The Intelligent Investor," that uses evaluating anticipated growth, but also book value? It seems to me that fair value is always a bit higher when using Mr. Graham's formula than the stream of cash discounted back to present value that is in "Warren Buffett Way" and also that you've alluded to in annual reports.

沃伦·巴菲特是的,我们在年报里已经尽量把我们的证券投资方法阐释清楚了。账面价值不在我们的考虑范围之内——实际上,几乎完全不考虑。最好的企业,按定义来说,就是那些能够长期对所投入资本实现极高回报的企业。因此,很自然,如果我们想持有好企业,我们买到的那些东西,相对于我们的买入价,所投入的资本都会相当之少。这本不是本·格雷厄姆的做法。但本·格雷厄姆——他当时管理的资金量不是特别大。他也不会不认同这种做法,他只会说他的方法更简单。当你的资金量较小时,他的方法或许确实更简单。我的朋友沃尔特·施洛斯就远更偏好于本会选的那类证券。他管理的资金量一直较小。他的投资业绩极为出色。对此我一点都不觉得意外。当年沃尔特离开格雷厄姆-纽曼公司时,我就预计他会做得很好。但从我们的角度来看,我并不认为格雷厄姆的核心信息在于那些公式。换句话说,他的理论有三个重要方面。第一,是你对待股市的态度。这在《聪明的投资者》第八章里已有论述。如果你对市场抱持那种态度,你就已领先市场里 99% 的人。所以,你拥有巨大的优势。第二条原则是安全边际,这同样给了你巨大的优势,而且它的适用范围其实远不止投资领域。第三条,就是把股票视为企业,这让你拥有与市场中大多数人截然不同的视角。有了这三个哲学意义上的基准,你具体使用的评估技术便不是那么重要了。因为你不会偏离正轨太远,不论你是用沃尔特的方法——沃尔特·施洛斯的——还是我的,或是其他什么人的。菲尔·卡雷特的方法略有不同,但我可以保证,他的方法也包含着这三块基石。相信我,他做得非常好。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we've tried to put in the annual report pretty much how we approach securities. And book value is not a consideration — virtually, not a consideration at all. And the best businesses, by definition, are going to be businesses that earn very high returns on capital employed over time. So, by nature, if we want to own good businesses, we're going to own things that have relatively little capital employed compared to our purchase price. That would not have been Ben Graham's approach. But Ben Graham was — Ben was not working with very large sums of money. And he would not have argued with this approach, he just would've said his was easier. And it is easier, perhaps, when you're working with small amounts of money. My friend Walter Schloss has hewed much more toward the kind of securities that Ben would've selected. But he's worked with smaller amounts of money. He has an absolutely sensational record. And it's not surprising to me at all. I mean, when Walter left Graham-Newman, I would've expected him to do well. But I don't look at the primary message, from our standpoint, of Graham, really, as being in that — in anything to do with formulas. In other words, there's three important aspects to it. You know, one is your attitude toward the stock market. That's covered in chapter eight of "The Intelligent Investor." I mean, if you've got that attitude toward the market, you start ahead of 99 percent of all people who are operating in the market. So, you have an enormous advantage. Second principle is the margin of safety, which again, gives you an enormous edge, and actually has applicability far beyond just the investment world. And then the third is just looking at stocks as businesses, which gives you an entirely different view than most people that are in the market. And with those three sort of philosophical benchmarks, the exact — the evaluation technique you use is not really that important. Because you're not going to go way off the track, whether you use Walter's approach — Walter Schloss's — or mine, or whatever. Phil Carret has a slightly different approach. But it's got those three cornerstones to it, I will guarantee. And believe me, he's done very well. Charlie?

不要相信预测

Don't believe projections

查理·芒格是的。如果估算未来现金流的方法需要依赖预测,那么我的看法是,预测虽然在逻辑上为形势所必需,但在美国,平均而言,预测带来的害处多于好处。大多数预测出自对某一特定结果有利益关系的人之手。这个过程里掺杂的潜意识偏见,以及它表面上那份精确,让它——让它有些——怎么说呢,变得可笑、不光彩、愚蠢,随你怎么形容。马克·吐温常说,矿就是一个洞,连同一块地,主人是个骗子。而在美国,任何人只要是为了赚取佣金,或是某个高管想证明某一行动的合理性所做的预测,十有八九就是谎言。大多数情况下,倒不是有意撒谎。这人自己已经信了。那才是最糟的一种。所以,我认为我们不该——对预测要极度审慎,特别是当有人有意要误导你的时候。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. To the extent that the method of estimating future cash flow requires projections, I would say that projections, while they're logically required by the circumstances, on average, do more harm than good in America. Most of them are put together by people who have an interest in a particular outcome. And the subconscious bias that goes into the process, and its apparent precision, make it — makes it some — well, it's fatuous, or dishonorable, or foolish, or what have you. Mark Twain used to say a mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar. And a projection prepared in America by anybody with a commission, or an executive trying to justify a particular course of action, will frequently be a lie. It's not a deliberate lie, in most cases. The man has gotten to believe it himself. And that's the worst kind. So, I don't think we should — projections are to be handled with great care, particular when somebody has an interest in misleading you.

沃伦·巴菲特查理和我,我想这么说很公允,我们无论是买入一只证券还是一家企业,从来不看预测。倒是有一大堆人把预测塞给我们。问题是,当别人硬要塞给我们的时候,我们主动回绝——怎么说呢,光看那些卖企业的人或是向董事会汇报的高管们那般精心准备预测的劲头,唉,不是他们错了,就是我们错了。大概十有八九,只是高管们走的一个过场,好给当初自己想干的事找个说法。我从来,你知道,我从来没碰见过哪个想收购的高管说:“哎,我不得不放弃,因为预测结果不行。”我是说,这根本——从来没有过。而且,总会有人编出预测,来满足那个在付他薪水的人,或者促成那笔能带来佣金的买卖。他们会把这些预测再传给一切需要经手的人,银行的人也好,董事会的人也好,好让收购获得批准。纯属扯淡。我最近参与了一件——一个项目,预测是方案陈述的一部分。我当时要求,把做这些预测的人他们过去的预测记录,也一并拿出来。(笑声)这举动很不礼貌。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie and I, I think it's fair to say, we've never looked at a projection in connection with either a security we've bought or a business we've bought. We've had them offered to us in great quantities. Now, the fact that we voluntarily turn them away when people try to thrust them upon us — I mean, it — the very fact that they are prepared so meticulously by the people who are selling the businesses, or by the executives who are presenting to their boards and all of that sort of thing, you know, I mean, either we're wrong or they're wrong. It's a ritual that managers go through to justify doing what they wanted to do in the first place, in about nine cases out of ten. I have never, you know, I have never met an executive who wanted to buy something that said, "Well, I had to turn it down because the projections didn't work." I mean, it's just — it's never happened. And there will always be somebody that will come up with the projections that will satisfy the guy who's signing his paycheck or will sign the deal that provides the commissions. And they will pass those along to whomever else they need, the bankers or the board, to approve it. It is total nonsense. I was recently involved in some — in a situation where projections were a part of the presentation. And I asked that the record of the people who made the projections, their past projections also be presented at the same time. (Laughter) It was a very rude act. (Laughter)

查理·芒格这被视为等于叛教。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt was regarded as apostasy.

沃伦·巴菲特那——但相信我,这恰好证明了问题所在。我是说,活像一个笑话。所以,我们先说到这儿。

WARREN BUFFETTIt — but believe me, it proved the point. I mean, it was a joke, I mean. So, we'll leave it at that.

审视一项投资时的第一个问题

First question when looking at an investment

沃伦·巴菲特接下来我们——可能再来一个问题。然后休息一下。查理和我就在这儿用餐。想留下来的可以继续留下来。另一个厅的股东,这边肯定会腾出空位。我们大概 10 到 15 分钟后重新整队集合。然后能坚持多久我们就聊多久。好,我们从 6 区再来最后一个问题,之后就休息。

WARREN BUFFETTWe're going to have another — one more question, maybe. And then we'll take a break. And Charlie and I will be eating up here. The ones who want to stick around can stick around. And the ones who are in the other room, undoubtedly there will be seats in here to fill. So, we'll sort of regroup in 10 or 15 minutes. And then we'll go on as long as that group lasts. So, let's take one more from zone 6. And then we'll take a break.

现场股东您好,我叫彼得·贝弗林,来自瑞典。您在看一项潜在投资的时候,问自己的绝对第一个问题是什么?您和芒格先生问的第一个问题一样吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERHello, my name is Peter Bevelin from Sweden. What is the absolutely first question you ask yourself when you look at a potential investment? And do you and Mr. Munger ask yourself the same first question?

沃伦·巴菲特怎么说呢。嗯,我想——我倒不会先问自己查理会不会喜欢,因为——(笑声)——那问题就难办了。不是的,第一个问题是,我能理解它吗?除非是那种我认为自己能够理解的公司,否则看了也毫无意义。没必要哄骗自己,以为我能弄懂某家软件公司、某家生物技术公司,或者诸如此类的企业。我对它能懂个啥?我是说,你知道,我可能——所以这是第一个门槛问题。接下来第二个问题是,嗯,它看起来是不是有着良好的经济特质?它有没有赚得很高的资本回报率?你知道,它给我的直观感觉,是不是今后还有可能做到?然后我再一层层往下推演。你呢,查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, I think — I don't ask myself whether Charlie's going to like it because — (laughter) — that will be a tough one. No, the first question is, can I understand it? And unless it's going to be in a business that I think I can understand, there's no sense looking at it. There's no sense kidding myself into thinking that I'm going to understand some software company, or some biotech company, or something of the sort. What the hell am I going to know about it? I mean, you know, I can — so that's the first threshold question. And then the second question is, you know, does it look like it has good economics? Has it earned high returns on capital? You know, does it strike me as something that's likely to do that? And then I sort of go from there. How about you, Charlie?

查理·芒格是的。我们倾向于依据过往记录来评判。通常情况下,如果一样东西历史记录很糟,却有一个灿烂的未来,我们多半会错过那个机会。(笑声和掌声)

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. We tend to judge by the past record. By and large, if the thing has a lousy past record and a bright future, we're going to miss the opportunity. (Laughter and applause)