2015 年股东大会 · 下午场

2015-05-02 · 原文约 24330 词
译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文,也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。
打开来源正文

事先没拿到关于克莱顿住宅的问题

Didn't get Clayton Homes question in advance

沃伦·巴菲特好。请大家安静下来,我们继续。我想澄清一件事。我女儿告诉我,因为我准备了那么多幻灯片来回应卡罗尔的第一个问题,她就以为卡罗尔·卢米斯和我提前商量过。我向各位保证,我从未跟台上的任何人提前讨论过问题,这一点他们也会对你们说同样的话。但我确实知道会被问到关于克莱顿的问题,所以才准备了那些幻灯片。第一个问题就点到它纯属巧合,不过它肯定会出现在前几个问题里。所以,卡罗尔没有——六十年来,卡罗尔从未向我透露过任何事,其他嘉宾也一样。所有——但我们——但我——是对人们会问起克莱顿这件事做好了准备。好了,我们继续,交给贝基。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Everybody will settle down, we'll move right along. I want to clear up one thing. My daughter told me that because we had all those — I had — all those slides that were in answer to Carol's first question, that Carol [Loomis] and I had discussed it ahead of time. I will guarantee you that I've discussed no questions with anyone on the panel, and they will tell you the same thing. But I knew I was going to be asked questions about Clayton, so I prepared the slides. It was an accident that it turned out to be the first question, but it was certain to be in the first few. So, Carol did not — Carol in 60 years has never tipped me off on anything, nor have the other panelists. And everything — but we were — but I was — prepared for the fact that people would be asking questions about Clayton. OK. Let's move right along, and we'll go to Becky.

高通胀环境中表现最好的生意

Businesses that do best in high inflation

贝基·奎克好的。这是一个问题——哦,不对,不是这个。稍等。找到了。这个问题来自约翰·韦尔斯,他就在奥马哈,他问:“你曾把通胀描述为一条巨大的企业绦虫。伯克希尔旗下面向哪些生意最能在高通胀时期蓬勃发展,原因是什么?哪些又会受损最严重,原因又是什么?”

BECKY QUICKOK. This is a question — oops, that's not the question. Hold on. Here it is. This is a question from John Wells, right here in Omaha, and he says, "You've described inflation as a gigantic corporate tapeworm. Which of Berkshire's businesses are best suited to thrive during a period of high inflation and why? Which will suffer the most and why?"

沃伦·巴菲特是的。嗯,通胀时期表现最好的生意,往往是最——它们是那种你一次性买入之后,就不需要再持续投入资本开支的生意。这样一来,你就不用面对那个问题:因为通胀,需要投入越来越多的资金去不停再投资。这就是房地产在通胀时期通常表现不错的一个原因。如果像查理那样 55 年前自己盖了房子,或者像我一样 55 年前买了一套,那只是一次性的支出,而你——你却能从重置成本的膨胀中获利,而且你自己根本无需再去重置。如果你的资产对别人有用,久而久之,它的定价往往会参照重置价值,所以你确实能享受到通胀带来的上涨推力。然而,如果你做的是公用事业或铁路这类生意,它就会不停地吞噬越来越多的资金,你的折旧费用根本不够用,而且你自认为的真实经济利润其实是在自欺欺人。所以,凡是需要大量资本投入的生意,在通胀时期往往都是糟糕的生意,而且往往无论何时都是糟糕的生意。而那种一次性买入的东西——品牌是通胀时期一项极为美妙的资产。你知道吗,喜诗糖果许多许多年前就建立起了自己的品牌。我们一路走来当然也得持续用心维护,但那个品牌的价值会随着通胀而增长,任何拥有强势品牌的商品,其实道理都一样。1939 年,吉列买断了世界职业棒球大赛的全部广播转播权。我记得他们花了 10 万美元,由此获得了转播 1939 年扬基队对阵红人队比赛的权益,应该是这样。想想看,用 1939 年的 10 万美元,他们在多少人脑海里留下了印象,而且是用 1939 年的美元,当年像我这样的小伙子就在他们触达之列。那时我才八九岁。几百万人——他们用当时的那些美元就做到了。当然,现在你要是想出去试一试,在几百万人脑海里重现同等规模的印象,那得花一大笔钱。这里面有一部分是通胀的原因。也有一部分是其他因素造成的。但那是一笔很了不起的投资,用 1939 年的美元投下去,却在 1960 年代、1970 年代、1980 年代以卖出剃须刀和刀片的方式收回了本息。所以,这才是你想拥有的那种生意。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, the best businesses during inflation are usually the best — they're the businesses that you buy once and then you don't have to keep making capital investments subsequently. So you get — you do not face the problem of continuous reinvestment involving greater and greater dollars because of inflation. That's one reason real estate, in general, is good during inflation. If you built your own house 55 years ago like Charlie did, or bought one 55 years ago like I did, it's a one-time outlay, whereas if you're — and you get the — you get an inflationary expansion in replacement capital without having to replace yourself. And if you've got something that's useful to someone else, it tends to be priced in terms of replacement value over time, so you really get the inflationary kick. Now, if you're in a business such as the utility business or the railroad business, it just keeps eating up more and more money, and your depreciation charges are inadequate and you're kidding yourself as to your real economic profits. So, any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in in inflation and often it's a poor business to be in generally. And the business where you buy something once — a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation. You know, See's Candy built their brand many years ago. Now, we've had to nourish it as we've gone along, but the value of that brand increases during inflation, just as the value of, really, any strongly branded goods. Gillette bought the entire radio rights to the World Series in 1939. And as I remember, it cost them $100,000, and for that they got to broadcast the Yankees, I think, versus the Reds in 1939. And think of the number of impressions they made on minds in 1939 dollars for $100,000, and they were getting in the minds of young guys like myself. I was eight or nine. And millions of people — and they did it in those dollars then. And, of course, if you were going to go out and try out and do — have similar impressions on millions of minds now, it'd cost a fortune. And part of that is due to inflation. Part of it's due to other things. But it was a great investment, which could be made in 1939 dollars that paid off, in terms of selling razors and blades in 1960 and 1970 and 1980 dollars. So that's the kind of business you want to own. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,没错,但要是通胀真的完全失控,谁也不知道最后会是什么结局。要不是当年魏玛共和国那场恶性通胀,我们可能根本就不会见到阿道夫·希特勒。正是德国那场大通胀,再加上随后的大萧条,这两件事一起把希特勒推上了台。想想看,世界为那一次事件付出了多大的代价。我们并不因为通胀对喜诗糖果有好处,就希望它出现。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, yeah, but if the inflation ever goes completely out of control, you have no idea how it's going to end up. If it weren't for the Weimar inflation, we might never have had Adolf Hitler. It was the twosome of the great German inflation followed by the Great Depression that brought us Hitler. And think of the price that the world paid for that one. We don't want inflation because it's good for See's Candy. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特我倒没意识到我刚才——

WARREN BUFFETTI didn't quite realize I was —

查理·芒格不,我不是在批评你。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, I wasn't criticizing you.

沃伦·巴菲特对喜诗糖果有好处的,就是对美国有好处。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTWhat's good for See's Candy is good for the United States. (Laughter)

有机增长 vs. 收购

Organic growth vs. acquisitions

沃伦·巴菲特好。加里?

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Gary?

加里·兰塞姆三年前你提到,你们曾把一家大型商业险保险公司视为可能的收购目标,而现在你们创办了伯克希尔专业保险公司,起步似乎相当不错。你现在的想法是什么,这家新公司是否已经替代了收购一家大公司——也就是买入或收购一家大公司的方案,还是说伯克希尔专业保险已经做得足够好,让你对——

GARY RANSOMThree years ago you noted that you had looked at a large commercial lines insurance company as a possible acquisition, and now you've started up Berkshire Specialty, which seems to be off to a good start. What are your thoughts on whether that has replaced the idea of taking over — of buying or acquiring a large company, or is Berkshire Specialty doing well enough that you're content with that —

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

加里·兰塞姆——这种有机增长感到满意了?

GARY RANSOM— organic growth?

沃伦·巴菲特我想说,几乎可以肯定——我不想说 100% 肯定——但几乎可以肯定我们不会去收购一家大型商业保险公司。在我看来,我们在伯克希尔·哈撒韦专业保险公司已经拥有了理想的运营模式。我们让对的人在管理。阿吉特在负责监督。我们拥有的资本比世界上任何一家商业保险公司都多,所以我们的证券——进而我们的保单——确实比任何人都好。我们拥有所有这些优势。如果我们收购一家大公司,我们得支付一笔非常可观且不能抵扣的收购溢价,而我们现在这种方式,在构建阶段就已经在赚钱了。而且我认为,从现在起 5 到 10 年后,它可以成为一个非常非常庞大的业务。所以,收购别人的概率几乎是零。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTI would say that it's almost certain that we — I don't want to say 100 percent certain — but it's almost certain we will not take over a large commercial insurance company. We've got the ideal operation, in my view, in Berkshire Hathaway Specialty. We've got the right people running it. We've got Ajit overseeing it. We've got more capital than any commercial insurance company in the world so that our securities are — and, therefore, our policies — are really better than anyone else's. So, we've got all these things going for us. And if we bought a big operation, we would have paid a very substantial nondeductible acquisition premium, and this way we've actually made money while we're in the building stage. And I think it can be a very, very big operation five or 10 years from now. So it's almost zero probability that we'll buy somebody else. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我当然同意你的看法。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I certainly agree with you.

沃伦·巴菲特好。他——他就是这么保住工作的。(笑声)我们接着——顺便说一下,所有场外分会场,包括希尔顿那个,都坐满了。我不太确定另外几个——11 号会场在哪里——但我们午餐时间总会流失不少人。所以我相信每个人都能找到座位,但我们确实要为今早没能找到座位的股东道歉。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. The — that's how he keeps his job. (Laughter) We'll go to — incidentally, all the overflow rooms, including at the Hilton, got filled. I'm not sure where a couple — where station 11 is — but we always lose a fair number at lunchtime. So I'm sure everybody can find a seat, but we do apologize to those who could not find a seat this morning.

芒格论声誉和良好行为

Munger on reputation and behaving well

沃伦·巴菲特11 号会场?

WARREN BUFFETTStation 11?

现场股东是的。嘿,沃伦和查理。你们好吗?祝贺你们 50 周年。

AUDIENCE MEMBERYes. Hey, Warren and Charlie. How are you guys? Congratulations on 50 years.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you.

现场股东在今年的致股东信里,查理写到了让伯克希尔体系及其领导者成为历史上独特组织实体的那些特质。所以,我的问题是想问两位,你们会向一个处于职业生涯起步阶段的年轻、有进取心的人,灌输什么样的实用心智模型,来帮助他们建立起一个具有同样杰出特质和影响力的、持久而重要的企业?如果你们能举一些对比的例子就更好了,比如为什么微软能把自己打造成一个占据主导地位的巨无霸公司,而像喜诗糖果这样能产生大量现金流的优秀企业,却不一定能成为——或者说未必能持久——但未必能达到伯克希尔或微软那种影响力水平的企业?

AUDIENCE MEMBERSo, in this year's annual letter, Charlie wrote about the peculiar attributes that made the Berkshire system, and the leader of the system, a historically organizing entity — organizational entity. So, my question to both of you is what practical mental model or mental models would you impress upon a young, enterprising individual at the infancy of their career to build an important enduring enterprise of that particular distinction and impact? And if you could give, like, maybe some contrasting examples, like why is a Microsoft able to build itself into a dominating monolithic company, versus a See's Candy, which can be a great enterprise to spin off cash flow but not necessarily be an enduring — or not necessarily enduring — but an impactful enterprise to the level of a Berkshire or Microsoft?

查理·芒格谢谢你,沃伦。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERThank you, Warren. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特是你写的那个。(笑声)顺便说一句,这是菠萝汁。有人提出质疑。(笑声)他们说如果要说很久的话,喝这个对嗓子好。

WARREN BUFFETTYou're the guy that wrote it. (Laughter) This is pineapple juice, incidentally. People were questioning that. (Laughter) They say it's good for your throat if you're going to talk a long time.

查理·芒格嗯,是的。当然,声誉是靠长时间积累的。很少有人像查尔斯·林德伯格那样,一夜之间拥有伟大声誉。我们大多数人必须慢慢获得,伯克希尔的情况也是如此。任何一个人,你只能在被赋予的岁月和可用的时间里,尽可能争取最好的声誉。结果可能很好,也可能很糟。但这是一项明智的投资。我总能看到,机会降临到一些人头上,是因为他们过去积累的信誉带来了新的机会。所以,我认为,在你一生的旅途中,没有什么比行为端正更重要了。而且——我认为随着我们越来越成功,我们实际上也更努力地让自己行为更好,如果你不这样做,我觉得你肯定是疯了。所以,我当然建议你遵循那些老派的原则。而且我不认为有任何办法能保证打造出一个全能巨擘品牌;同样,如果结果是那种五千万分之一级别的成就,你很可能也得不到它。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. Well, of course, reputation you get over a long period of time. Very few people are like Charles Lindbergh where you just suddenly have a great reputation. Most of us have to acquire one very slowly, and that was true in Berkshire's case. And any individual you just have to get the best reputation you can in the years you're allotted and the time available. And it may work out well, it may work out poorly. But it's a wise investment. I see, all the time, opportunities come to people where it's the credibility they've gotten in the past that causes them to have the new opportunity. So, I think hardly anything is more important than behaving well as you go through life. And — I think we actually try to behave better as we got more prosperous, and I think you'd be crazy if you didn't. So, I'd certainly recommend that you follow those old-fashioned principles. And I don't think there's any way of guaranteeing a total powerhouse brand, nor can — if a result is a one in 50 million-type result, you're probably not going to get it.

沃伦·巴菲特菲亚特的詹尼·阿涅利,我记得大概是 1988 年,我有一次和他共进晚餐,他说了一句话,我一直记得。他说:“等你老了,你会得到你应得的声誉。”他说:“短期内你可以——”

WARREN BUFFETTGianni Agnelli of Fiat, back in — I think it was 1988 — I was at dinner with him one time, and he said something to me that stuck with me. He said, "When you get old," he says, "You'll have the reputation you deserve." He says, "For a while you can" —

查理·芒格愚弄别人。

CHARLIE MUNGERFool people.

沃伦·巴菲特——“愚弄别人,”但他说,“当你”——他当时是在说他自己——“当你到了我这个年纪,不管你有什么样的声誉,那很可能就是你应得的。”我认为这对公司来说也一样。坦率地说,伯克希尔因为它获得了一个与众不同的公司的声誉,这给了我们巨大的帮助。我的意思是,我不认为我们当初是刻意追求这个,但结果就是这样。

WARREN BUFFETT— "fool people," but he says, "When" — he was talking about himself at the time — but he said, "When you get to be my age," he said, "Whatever reputation you have, it's probably the one you deserve." And I think the same is true of companies. And, frankly, you know, it has helped Berkshire a whole lot that it has gotten a reputation to be a somewhat different sort of company. I mean, I don't think we set out to do that, exactly, but it has worked out that way.

保险子公司的气候变化风险

Climate change risk for insurance subsidiaries

沃伦·巴菲特安德鲁?

WARREN BUFFETTAndrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金沃伦,你曾说过全球变暖并没有增加伯克希尔在天气相关事件上的赔付。然而,包括旅行者保险在内的其他保险公司,都将气候变化列为其使用的风险因素。伯克希尔的模型有什么不同吗?如果有,不同在哪里?

ANDREW ROSS SORKINWarren, you have said that global warming has not increased Berkshire's payouts for weather-related events. Yet, other insurers, including Travelers, have cited climate change as a risk factor that they use. Are Berkshire's models different and, if so, how?

沃伦·巴菲特对。不。我见过——当然,SEC 要求你列出所有这些风险因素,律师们也会告诉你把你能想到的所有东西都写进去,比如你会得阿尔茨海默病之类的。他们只是想让你列出一份长长的清单,把所有可能的情况都覆盖到,以防日后有诉讼之类的事情。所以,人们确实会把天气风险写进去,也许他们写进去是因为他们有一些模型显示了这一点。但是,我们给业务定价——基本上,我们每年定价一次。这不像寿险公司。寿险公司你会签一份合同——每千美元保费收这么多。如果你买终身寿险,你设定的价格是——如果你 20 岁,你设定的价格可能覆盖未来 60 或 70 年。但这不是我们所在的财产意外险业务。我们一次只设定一年的价格。我看不出有什么东西告诉我,按年度来看,全球变暖应该会让我大幅调整价格,哪怕只是小幅调整。这并不意味着它对人类不是一个威胁,或者极其重要。这只是意味着,如果我要卖一份一年期的保单,标的是一座 10 亿美元的工厂,我可能非常关心那座工厂的防火措施,以及其他各种保护措施。我可能关心工厂周边的情况,以及各种各样的事情,但我不会考虑全球变暖。在我看来,在任何一年的时间跨度内,它不会实质性地改变形势。而且,如果我要承保佛罗里达州一份 50 年的飓风保单,我会非常认真地思考全球变暖在这种情况下可能对潜在飓风的频率和强度产生什么影响。但我认为它对佛罗里达、路易斯安那或得克萨斯——明年——发生飓风的可能性或强度没有任何实质性影响。所以,它不是我会写进 10-K 报表作为威胁的东西。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. No. I've seen the — of course, the SEC requires you put in all these risk factors, and the lawyers will tell you to put in, you know, everything possibly you can think of, you know, that you'll develop Alzheimer's or whatever it may be. They just want you to have a laundry list so that it's all been covered in case of later litigation or something of the sort. So people do put in weather risk, and maybe they put it in because they've got some model that shows it. But, you know, we price our business — basically, we price it every year. It's not like a life insurance company. A life insurance company you make a contract that — so much a thousand. And if you buy whole life insurance, you've set a price for — if you're 20, you may have set a price for 60 or 70 years in the future. But that is not the property casualty insurance business, which we're in. We set it one year at a time. And I see nothing that tells me that on a yearly basis that global warming is something that should cause me to change my prices a lot, or even a small amount. That doesn't mean that it isn't a threat to humanity or — you know, and terribly important. It just means that if I'm going to sell a one-year insurance policy, and I'm going to sell it on a $1 billion plant, I may care enormously about the fire protection, and other various other kinds of protection, within that plant. I may care about what's going on adjacent to that plant, and all kinds of things, but I am not thinking about global warming. It does not change the situation, in a material way, in any one-year period of time, in my judgment. And, you know, it — if I was writing a 50-year wind storm policy in Florida, I would think very hard about what global warming might do in that case to the incidence and the intensity of potential hurricanes. But I do not think it has any material effect on the likelihood of — or the intensity — of a hurricane in Florida or Louisiana or Texas or — next year. So, it is not a — it's not something I would put in the 10-K as a threat. Charlie?

查理·芒格我并不完全清楚全球变暖对极端天气的影响。我认为这个领域有很多猜测,很多人喜欢对远非确定无疑的灾难大惊小怪。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't think it's totally clear what the effects of global warming will be on extremes of weather. I think there's a lot of guesswork in that field, and a lot of people like howling about calamities that are by no means sure.

沃伦·巴菲特对。你觉得——它会改变你对下一年费率的预测吗?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Do you think — would it change your one-year prediction as to what the rate should be?

查理·芒格不会。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo.

沃伦·巴菲特不会。它也不会改变我的看法,所以我不太理解他们为什么要把这个写进去。

WARREN BUFFETTNo. It wouldn't change mine either, so I don't really understand why they put that in there.

查理·芒格很多人在这个问题上投入很深。这就像一种疯狂的意识形态。不是说全球变暖没有发生。只是你可能会对此过于激动,从而做出各种未必正确的疯狂推断。

CHARLIE MUNGERA lot of people get very invested. It's like a crazy ideology. It's not that global warming isn't happening. It's just that you can get so excited about it you make all kinds of crazy extrapolations that aren't necessarily correct.

沃伦·巴菲特对。你这么看这件事。你会因为全球变暖,就把明天的保险费率跟今天的改得不一样吗?我非常怀疑。但你知道,50 年后的费率你会改吗?很有可能。但我觉得,在聚焦这个因素时,一年更接近一天,而不是接近 50 年。所以,我不希望我们的承保人员在考虑承保哪个风险、或者为那个风险定什么价格时,老想着全球变暖。我希望他们想的是有没有道德风险、谁是房产的主人。这可能会非常重要。以前有个家伙叫“纵火狂马文”,如果你给“纵火狂马文”上了保险,全球变暖根本就没多大区别。他的楼肯定得烧掉。(笑声)不过,马文看问题的方式倒是很妙。他说:“我不是在烧楼;我是在创造空地。”(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Look at it this way. Would you change the rate for tomorrow on insurance because — from the rate today — for global warming? I doubt it very much. Now, you know, would you change it for 50 years? Might very well. But I think that one year is much closer to one day than it is to 50 years, in terms of focusing on that factor. So, I do not want our underwriters to sit there thinking a lot about — in terms of writing a risk or the price at which to write that risk — I do not want them thinking about global warming. I want them thinking about whether there's a moral risk involved and who owns the property. I mean, that can be very significant. There used to be one fellow called "Marvin the Torch," that if you insured "Marvin the Torch," global warming didn't really make much difference. His building was going to go. (Laughter) Marvin had a marvelous way of looking at it, though. He said, "I don't burn buildings; I create vacant lots." (Laughter)

尽管过往业绩不佳,仍可能增加油气投资

More oil & gas investments possible despite poor record

沃伦·巴菲特好的。格雷格?

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Gregg?

格雷格·沃伦当我们回顾过去十年你们的一些大额股票买入时,有两个名字其实很突出:康菲石油和埃克森美孚。第一次,你们在 2008 年油价飙升到高点附近时买入,后来也承认鉴于危机期间油价暴跌幅度之大,这是一个错误。虽然你们后来通过将菲利普斯 66 分拆为运营资产,得以置换掉部分持仓,但据我们估算,过去六年你们卖出的这部分股票大部分是亏损的。鉴于这段经历,看到你们在 2013 年夏天大规模建仓埃克森美孚,我们有些人感到惊讶。虽然看起来你们在去年油价下跌时能够以成本价清仓了这些股份,但这类型的投资可能受到油价波动的负面影响,似乎与你们股票投资组合中的其他类型投资不太契合——组合中很多投资建立在拥有独特竞争优势的强力经济特许权之上。考虑到这一点,再考虑到格雷格·阿贝尔及其在伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司团队在收购和投资能源资产方面的过往记录,把未来与能源相关的投资交给他们处理是否更有意义?

GREGG WARRENWhen we look back at some of your bigger stock purchases during the past decade, two names actually stand out: ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil. In the first instance, you bought shares near the height of the spike in oil prices in 2008, later acknowledging that this was a mistake given how dramatically oil prices fell during the crisis. While you've been able to swap some of those holdings, post a spinoff of Phillips 66 into operating assets, most of what you sold the last six years, by our estimates, has been at a loss. Given that experience, it surprised some of us to see you take a meaningful position in ExxonMobil during the summer of 2013. While it looks like you were able to eliminate that stake at cost as oil prices fell last year, these types of investments, which can be negatively impacted by the volatility in oil prices, don't really seem to fit well with the other types of investments in your stock portfolio, many of which are built on strong franchises with unique competitive advantages. With that in mind, and given the track record that Greg Abel and his team at Berkshire Hathaway Energy have had acquiring and investing in energy assets, does it make more sense to leave future energy-related investments in their hands?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,没有什么比支持格雷格去收购公用事业资产更让我们喜欢的了。并且——但它们——在伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司,我们称之为能源,但它不是石油和天然气,他们的业务与康菲石油或埃克森美孚截然不同。但我们一直在寻找机会,让伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司花大钱,它也一定会花。伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司,我们在 1999 年以每股 35.05 美元的价格买入股票。我出价 35 美元,而且我不改价——伯克希尔——当时那家公司叫中美能源——他们雇佣了一些投资银行家从纽约过来,投资银行家在这里待了一周什么事也没做。但在他们回家之前,他们说,你知道,“你得给我们点东西,因为我们得寄一大笔账单。”我说,“好吧,这样的话,我们付 35.05 美元,你可以说是从我这里榨到了最后一分钱。”(笑声)所以从那以后,我的目标就是让伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司每股赚到 35.05 美元。它从未支付过股息。今年每股大概能赚 30 美元,这是对格雷格及其管理团队的极大赞誉。但我们最终会达到 35 美元甚至更高,因为他会做成一些好交易。这和康菲石油或埃克森美孚的投资完全不同。事后看,我们对康菲石油计提了减值,因为审计师要求我们这么做。实际上,等我们完全处理完毕,我们在上面赚了一些钱,在埃克森美孚上也赚了一点。我们不会很频繁地买入石油和天然气股票,但我们会——我们可能还没买最后一次。最终,我们看现金,看可用的机会,既有投资也有实业,然后做决策,偶尔会买入一些东西,有时又会改变主意。这种情况会继续下去。已经持续很多年了。在石油和天然气领域,我们根本没有突出的表现,虽然赚了一点钱,也错过了一两个本可以赚大钱的机会。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, there's nothing we like better than to back up Greg in buying utility properties. And — but they — we call it energy, but it's not oil and gas in Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and they're really in a dramatically different business than ConocoPhillips or ExxonMobil. But we are looking, constantly, for opportunities for Berkshire Hathaway Energy to spend big money, and it will. Berkshire Hathaway Energy, we paid $35.05 per share in 1999 to buy the stock. I was at $35, and I don't change my prices and Berkshire — the company was then called MidAmerican — they hired some investment bankers to come out from New York, and investment bankers spent a week here doing nothing. But they felt — before they went home, they said, you know, "You've got to give us something because we're going to send a big bill." And I said, "Well, in that case, we'll pay $35.05 and you can say you got the last nickel out of me." (Laughter) So my ambition ever since has been to have Berkshire Hathaway Energy earn $35.05 per share. It's never paid a dividend. It will probably earn about $30 a share this year, which is a great tribute to Greg and his management. But we will get the 35 or better because he will make some good deals. It's not at all analogous to the ConocoPhillips or ExxonMobil investments. As it turned out, we wrote ConocoPhillips down because we were required by the auditors to do it. We actually, by the time we got all through, we made some money in it, and we made a little money in ExxonMobil, too. But we will not be buying, very often, oil and gas stocks, but we will — we probably haven't bought the last one. In the end, we look at the cash, we look at available opportunities, both in investments and businesses, and we make decisions, occasionally, on buying something and sometimes we change our mind. And that will continue that way. It's been going on that way for a lot of years. And we have not distinguished ourselves, at all, in the oil and gas field, although we've made a little money, and we passed up one or two where we could have made a lot of money. Charlie?

查理·芒格对。而且,在利率如此之低、埃克森美孚股息规模又那么大的情况下,如果你只考虑这些因素,它算是一个不错的现金替代品。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. And with interest rates being so low and the dividend on ExxonMobil being the size it was, it was not a bad cash substitute, if you think only in those terms.

沃伦·巴菲特对。结果还行。本来有其他我们可以做得更好的事情,但向来如此,以后也会是这样。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. It worked out OK. There were other things we could have done a lot better, but that's always been true and will continue to be true.

不为公司税收“流眼泪”

No "tears" for corporations on taxes

沃伦·巴菲特1 号位。

WARREN BUFFETTStation 1.

现场股东主席先生,副董事长先生,我叫安迪·皮克,来自纽约市。首先,祝贺你们度过了非凡的 50 年;其次,感谢你们举办了这场独一无二的股东大会,耐心地回答股东的问题。我相信你们两位——(掌声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Chairman, Mr. Vice Chairman, my name is Andy Peake, and I'm from New York City. First, congratulations to you on a remarkable 50 years, and second, thank you for hosting a one-of-a-kind annual meeting where you patiently answer questions from shareholders. I believe you are both — (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you.

现场股东我相信你们两位是地球上关于美国税法最博学、最权威的人士。我们的税法显然在个人和企业层面都存在严重问题。如今,有 2.1 万亿美元的离岸公司现金滞留在海外,没有汇回国内。我们的企业税率是世界上最高的,对于美国的高收入者来说,除了对冲基金经理,在像纽约和加州这样的州,综合税率超过了 50%。我们能做些什么来实现真正的改变,以建立一个更简单、更合理的税法?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERI believe you are two of the most knowledgeable and authoritative people on planet Earth on the U.S. tax code. Our tax code is obviously broken at both the individual and the corporate levels. Today, we have 2.1 trillion in offshore corporate cash sitting there not being brought home. We have the highest corporate tax rates in the world, and for high-income earners in the U.S., other than hedge fund managers, in states like New York and California, an all-in rate greater than 50 percent. What can be done to effect real change to bring about a simpler, more rational tax code? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这需要 218 位众议员、51 位参议员,再加上一位愿意签署法案的总统。问题在于:你觉得国家该花多少钱,然后从谁那里收钱?我想指出的是,尽管所有企业领袖都在抱怨税率,但公司利润占 GDP 的比重却创下了历史新高。40 年前,企业税占 GDP 的 4%,现在只有大约 2%。企业税大幅下降,而工资税却增加了。你知道,这确实是个问题。一旦税法里有了特殊条款,除非对税法进行重大修订,否则很难把它们去掉。我其实觉得——我可能在这方面是个乐观主义者,但我认为——罗恩·怀登和奥林·哈奇,这两位参议院财政委员会的领袖人物,我觉得他们有能力搞出一套方案来——虽然他们俩谁都不喜欢这方案——但他们都觉得这方案比现在的好,而且我认为可以把它改得合理得多。但说到底,如果我们打算花掉 GDP 的 21% 或 22%,那么我们大概应该收上来 GDP 的 19%。我们可以容忍几个百分点的缺口,同时不会让债务占 GDP 的比例进一步恶化,所以我们有这个回旋余地。但是,你知道,你拿 17.5 万亿美元左右的 19% 来算,就像参议员埃弗雷特·德克森曾经说过的,那可是真金白银。至于从企业收多少,从个人收多少,从遗产税收多少,你知道,这从头到尾都是一场较量。所以——至于海外现金,基本上你可以把它拿回来,只是要按美国公司税率交税。我们的公司税率是 35%。查理和我,在我们人生中相当长一段时间里,面对的是 52% 的公司税率,后来是 48%,而国家发展得很好。美国企业在那个时期也很繁荣。就整体税率而言,我一点都不可怜美国企业。我认为,在公司税方面,完全可以有更公平的税法,但我不认为目前从公司税中征收到的 GDP 的 2%——这远低于 30 或 40 年前的比例——是什么沉重的数字。而对于那些靠定期存单获得 0.25% 或 0.5% 收益的退休人士,美国企业用有形资产赚到的(这是他们的衡量方式),你知道,平均大概接近 15%,我认为在这种经济环境下,股权持有者相对于债权持有者来说,待遇好得不得了。(零星掌声)查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it takes 218 members of the House of Representatives and 51 U.S. senators, and a president that will sign the bill. The question is: how much you think the country should spend and then from whom do you get it? And I would point out that despite the tax rates that all the corporate chieftains complain about, the share of earnings — share of GDP — accounted for by corporate profits is at a record. Corporate taxes 40 years ago were 4 percent of GDP. They're now running about 2 percent. They've decreased significantly while payroll taxes have increased. You know, it's a real question. And once you get special provisions in the code, it is really hard to get rid of them, absent a major revision of the code. I actually think — I may be an optimist on this, but I'm — I think both Ron Wyden and Orrin Hatch, the two ranking members, Senate Finance Committee, I think they're capable of working out something that they — neither one of them likes — but they both like it better than what exists now, and I think it can be made considerably more rational. But in the end, if we're going to spend 21 or 2 percent of GDP, we should probably raise 19 percent of GDP. We can take a gap of a couple percent without getting further into debt as a proportion of GDP than we are, so we've got that leeway. But, you know, you take 19 percent of 17 1/2 trillion, or thereabouts, and you're talking, as Senator [Everett] Dirksen said one time, real money. And how much you get from corporations, how much you get from individuals, how much you get from estate taxes, you know, it's a fight up and down the line. So I — and in terms of the cash abroad, basically you can bring it back, you just have to pay tax at U.S. corporate rates. And our corporate rates are 35 percent. Charlie and I, a good bit of our life, operated with corporate rates of 52 percent, later at 48 percent, and the country grew well. American business prospered during that period. I don't shed any tears for American business, in terms of the tax rate overall. I think there could be a much more equitable code, in terms of the corporate tax, but I do not think that the 2 percent of GDP that's being raised from corporate taxes, which is far lower than was the percentage 30 or 40 years ago, I do not think that's an onerous number. And for people who are getting 1/4 or 1/2 percent on their CDs, who have retired, and with American business earning, on tangible equity, which is the way they measure it, you know, probably averaging close to 15 percent, I think equity holders are getting treated extraordinarily well compared to debt holders in this economy. (Scattered applause) Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我同意你的看法,我也不会为税法上这些小差异要死要活。当然,我住在加州——那里,长期资本利得的税率大概是 13.5%,而且联邦层面还不能抵扣。在加州搞这种税,简直荒唐,因为它会把富人赶跑。夏威夷和佛罗里达就聪明得多,知道富人不怎么犯罪,不拖累学校,而且他们的大量医疗支出对别人的收入也有好处。我觉得加州的税收政策真是蠢到家了。但我不觉得美国的政策——(掌声)——我不觉得美国的政策有什么不好。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I agree with you, and I don't die over these little differences in the tax code, either. I live in California, of course, where — there's, like, a 13 1/2 percent tax on long-term capital gains, nondeductible for federal purposes. That's a ridiculous kind of a tax to have in California because it drives rich people out. Hawaii and Florida have enough sense to know that rich people don't commit a lot of crimes, they don't burden the schools, and they provide a whole lot of medical expenditures that are good for everybody else's income. I think California has a really stupid tax policy. But I don't think the U.S. — but I don't think the U.S. policy is — (applause) — I don't think the U.S. policy is bad at all.

沃伦·巴菲特而且不能抵扣,是因为替代性最低税——

WARREN BUFFETTAnd it's nondeductible because of the alternative income tax —

查理·芒格对,没错。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes, exactly.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。以前倒不是这样,不过——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. That really wasn't the case before, but it —

查理·芒格不,一直是——

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, it's always —

沃伦·巴菲特——算是悄悄塞进来的。

WARREN BUFFETT— kind of slipped in.

查理·芒格不,他们是故意干的。(笑声)不,就是故意的。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, they did it on purpose. (Laughter) No, they did it on purpose.

沃伦·巴菲特早期妄想症症状。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTEarly stages of paranoia. (Laughter)

查理·芒格是啊。但这真是太离谱了。把富人赶走的想法,佛罗里达在这方面比加州聪明太多了。这真是脑子有病。谁他妈的会不想让富人进来在自己的州里花钱?

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. But it is — it's amazing. The idea of driving the rich people out, Florida is so much smarter than California on that subject. And it is really demented. Who in the hell doesn't want rich people coming in and spending in their state?

沃伦·巴菲特对,对。你们来内布拉斯加开会时可别忘了这点。(笑声)我得说,我真的觉得今年有点机会——而且不是小机会。我认识罗恩·怀登和奥林·哈奇。他们爱国、聪明,想干正事。他们对什么是正事有不同的看法,这毫无疑问,但他们也知道,不合作就什么都干不成。但我觉得真正的机会是,如果他们避开公众视线来搞点东西——我不会惊讶他们已经在做了。这是搞定它的办法。查理一直指出,如果当年费城的制宪会议上,每个代表都马上跑出去跟电视镜头说他自己多正确、别人多错,那会是什么结果。固守立场、不肯妥协,是成不了事的,因为要写出一套东西,得有很多妥协才行——当你在税法的一些重要方面有根本不同的看法时。但这两位都是好人,我觉得——一年之内出新企业税法,不是不可能的。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, yeah. Remember that as you come here to Nebraska for the meeting. (Laughter) I would say I really do think there's some chance this year — and not a tiny chance. I know both Ron Wyden and Orrin Hatch. They're patriotic, they're smart, they want to do the right thing. They've got different ideas about what the right thing is, there's no question about that, but they also know they can't get any place without cooperating. But I think the real opportunity is if they work out of the public eye in doing — in working on something — and I wouldn't be surprised if they are. I think that's the way to get it done. Charlie has always pointed out, what would have happened if the Constitutional Convention back there in Philadelphia had been held with every delegate running out immediately to tell the TV cameras how right he was and how wrong everybody else was. It doesn't accomplish much to dig in on positions, and not be in a position to compromise, because it takes a lot of compromise to write something when you have two different — fundamentally different — views on some important aspects of the tax code. But those are two good guys, and I would not — I don't think it's impossible that we have a new corporate tax code within a year.

巴菲特谈亚当·斯密的《国富论》

Buffett on Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations"

沃伦·巴菲特好。卡罗尔?

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Carol?

卡罗尔·卢米斯这个问题有点另类,来自澳大利亚墨尔本的乔丹·肖普夫(音译)。“巴菲特先生,在本杰明·格雷厄姆《证券分析》第六版的前言中,您提到了四本您特别珍视的书。其中三本是格雷厄姆本人写的,它们对您的影响广为人知。但第四本书对您思想的贡献——那本书是亚当·斯密于 1776 年出版的《国富论》——它对您的意义却很少被讨论。所以我的问题是,您从《国富论》中学到了什么,它如何塑造了您的投资和商业哲学?”

CAROL LOOMISThis question, which is a little bit offbeat, comes from Jordan Shopof (PH) of Melbourne, Australia. "Mr. Buffett, in the forward to the sixth edition of Benjamin Graham's 'Security Analysis,' you identified four books that you particularly cherish. "Three of these books were authored by Graham himself, and their influence on you is well-known. "The contributions of the fourth book to your thinking, however — that book was Adam Smith's 'The Wealth of Nations,' published in 1776 — what that book meant to you is seldom discussed. "So my question is, what did you learn from "The Wealth of Nations" and how did it shape your investment and business philosophy?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,它没有塑造我的投资哲学,但我当然从中学习了经济学。而且我的朋友比尔·盖茨送了我一本初版。我得以研读它。亚当·斯密在 1776 年写了这本书。它——你知道,就是——如果你读亚当·斯密,读凯恩斯、李嘉图,然后再读我们摆在那里的那本小书《客户的游艇在哪里?》,你会拥有很多智慧。我忘了提,我本来该提一下:我们之前不想提前上架,因为会泄露电影内容,但我们确实有“伯克希尔轰炸机”内裤,或者连帽衫之类的东西,鲜果布衣公司有货。还有弗雷德·施韦德的《客户的游艇在哪里?》,这本书包含了极其大量的智慧,篇幅很短,非常有趣。但如果你想——如果你想不仅获得更多智慧,而且看起来更有学问,你也应该读《国富论》。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it doesn't shape my investment philosophy, but I certainly learned economics from it. And my friend Bill Gates gave me an original copy of it. I was able to study this. Adam Smith wrote it in 1776. It's — you know, there's just — if you read Adam Smith and if you read Keynes, Ricardo, and then — and if you also read that little book we've got out there called "Where Are the Customers' Yachts?" you will have a lot of wisdom. I forgot to mention, I was supposed to mention, too: we didn't want to put it on sale earlier because it would have given away the movie, but we do have "Berkshire Bomber" underwear out there, or sweatshirts, or whatever it may be, so Fruit of the Loom has those. And we have Fred Schwed's "Where Are the Customers' Yachts?" book, which contains an incredible amount of wisdom and very few pages and very entertaining. But if you want to go for — if you want to not only get a lot more wisdom but appear more erudite, you should read "The Wealth of Nations," also. Charlie?

查理·芒格亚当·斯密是那种经得起时间考验的人。我的意思是,他被公认为有史以来最聪明的人之一。当然,他很久以前教过的那些道理,在共产主义惨痛失败后,像新加坡、台湾、中国这些地方迅速崛起时,又被重新学到了。资本主义体系的生产力简直难以置信,他早早就完全理解了这一点,他做了很多好事。

CHARLIE MUNGERAdam Smith is one of those guys that has really worn well. I mean, he is rightly recognized as one of the wisest people that ever came along. And, of course, the lessons that he taught way back then were taught again when communism failed so terribly, and places like Singapore and Taiwan and China, and so forth, came up so fast. The productive power of the capitalist system is simply unbelievable, and he understood that fully and early, and he's done a lot of good.

沃伦·巴菲特我采纳了他关于劳动分工的想法,你知道,他谈到人们做别针之类的事,但我实际上把它用在了慈善上。你知道,我的意思是,让别人做他们最擅长的事,自己坚持做自己最擅长的事,我从修剪草坪一直用到慈善,把一切推给别人,说别人比我更擅长这个,然后在自己最有效率的领域工作,这真是件好事。

WARREN BUFFETTI took an idea of his on the specialization of labor, you know, and he talked about people making pins or something, but I applied that, actually, to philanthropy. You know, I mean, the idea that you let other people do what they're best at and stick with what you're best at, I've carried from mowing my lawn to philanthropy, and it's a wonderful thing to just shove off everything and say somebody else is better than I am at that, and then work in the field that's most productive for you.

查理·芒格是啊。你也没自己做肠道手术。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. You didn't do your own bowel surgery, either.

沃伦·巴菲特没有。(笑声)我不确定我能怎么回这句。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTNo. (Laughter) I'm not sure I have any reply to that. (Laughter)

子公司并不过于关注短期

Subsidiaries aren't too focused on short term

沃伦·巴菲特好。乔纳森?

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Jonathan?

乔纳森·布兰特沃伦,你告诉过旗下企业的管理者,要把他们的企业当作会永远持有来思考,第一要务是加宽护城河、照顾好客户。根据我聊过的一些人的说法,不止一次,伯克希尔那些曾经公开上市的子公司,通过——注意,这只是边缘情况——试图最大化给母公司的日历年度盈利和分红,反而陷入了麻烦,而不是专注于企业的长期健康。你是否发现,曾经是上市公司的管理层,或许由于习惯,在做决策时比原本就是私有的公司更难做到几乎不考虑短期结果?如果这种动态确实存在,还有什么更多可以做的来应对它?另外我好奇,伯克希尔的大部分薪酬结构是基于 12 个月结果,还是已经基于多年期?

JONATHAN BRANDTWarren, you have told the managers of your businesses to think of their businesses as something they will own forever and that their first priority should be to widen the moat and take care of their customers. In more than one case, according to people I've spoken to, Berkshire's subsidiaries that were formally publicly traded have run into trouble by — now this is on the margin, mind you — trying to maximize calendar year earnings and dividends to the parent, as opposed to focusing on the long-term health of the business. Do you find that managements of formally public companies, through force of habit, perhaps, have more trouble making decisions with only minimal concern for short-term results than would be the case for formally private companies? If this dynamic is a real one, is there something more that can be done to combat it? And I'm curious, are most of Berkshire's compensation structures based on 12-month results or are they already based over multiyear periods?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。我不认为我们收购的上市公司和私有公司之间有什么特别的问题。我的意思是,如果把买来的所有上市公司和私有公司放在一起比,我不知道我更愿意拥有哪一组,也不知道哪一组带来了更高的回报。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I don't think we've had any particular problem with public companies versus private companies that we've bought. I mean, if you took the aggregate of the public companies we bought and matched them up against the private companies, I don't know which group I would rather own or which has delivered the greater returns.

查理·芒格我不知道他从哪儿得来这个想法。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't know where he gets the idea.

沃伦·巴菲特对。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格我们没看出来。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's not apparent to us.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。你听到查理说的了。我自己也想不出什么更好的说法。你知道,如果我们告诉他们要考虑 100 年,我们就是认真的,而且我觉得他们知道我们是认真的。他们肯定知道,我们经营伯克希尔·哈撒韦的方式,就是我们自己做决策的方式。所以,我觉得我们以身作则,而且我们尽可能用言语来传达这种信念,并且努力强化——我们努力把它写进年报,在像这样的会议上谈论它。我们坚信要反复强调同一个信息。当然,我们完全不会忽视年度业绩,只是我们不以它为准绳。但我每个月都会收到几乎每家公司的数据,我饶有兴致地阅读它们,而且我无时无刻不在思考这些数据。我觉得它们并非不重要,但我们不靠它们过活。而且我认为真正重要的是,三年、五年或十年后我们会是什么样子。但我也不会——如果我们在某个领域表现不佳,我不会接受这个事实,因为我们要在十年内实现最大化,就意味着我们应该在短期内放弃利润,或者不关注业务。但我得说查理所说的,我其实不同意这个前提。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, you've heard Charlie. And I can't think of it myself. And, you know, if we tell them to think about 100 years, we mean think about 100 years, and I think they know we mean it. They certainly know we run Berkshire, you know, in terms of our own decisions that way. So, I think we set the right example, and I think we use the words to convey that belief as strongly as we can, and we try to reinforce — we try to put it in the annual report, we try to talk about it in meetings like this. We believe in sort of hammering the same message out there over and over again. Now, we don't ignore yearly results at all, it's just we don't live by them. But I get figures every month on virtually every business, and I read them with great interest, and, you know, I'm thinking about them all the time. I don't think they're unimportant, but we don't live by them. And I think what really counts, you know, is where we're going to be three years, five years, or 10 years from now. But I also — I wouldn't — if we're subpar in some area, I wouldn't accept the fact that we're working to maximize things in 10 years mean that we should be throwing away money, or anything like that, in the short run, or not paying attention to the business. But I'd have to say what Charlie has, I don't really agree with the premise.

巴菲特对德国公司的兴趣

Buffett's interest in German companies

沃伦·巴菲特好的。2 号位置。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 2.

现场股东亲爱的沃伦,亲爱的查理。感谢你们走过的伟大 50 年。我是你们一位幸福的股东,希望你们能继续长久经营下去。我叫 Victoria Von Tropp,来自德国波恩。我的问题是,你们在美国和德国都有持股的公司。在你们看来,德国和美国的初创公司在企业文化和业绩表现上有什么不同?

AUDIENCE MEMBERDear Warren, dear Charlie. Thank you for 50 great years. I'm a happy shareholder and hope to have you continue long. My name is Victoria Von Tropp (PH). I'm from Bonn in Germany. And my question is, you own companies both here in the U.S. as well as in Germany. What differences in corporate culture and in performance do you see between German and U.S. starter companies?

沃伦·巴菲特查理?

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie?

查理·芒格什么之间的不同——

CHARLIE MUNGERDifferences between what —

沃伦·巴菲特我知道问题。我只是指望你给我答案,不是重复问题。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTI know the question. I'm just looking to you for the answer, not the question. (Laughter)

查理·芒格既然他现在听得清楚多了,他——

CHARLIE MUNGERNow that he can hear so much better, he —

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格嗯,我们在欧洲买资产一直不太顺利,非常罕见。我觉得欧洲的传统,尤其是家族传统,与美国以及其他一些国家不同。而德国当然有着悠久的历史,在技术和资本主义方面非常出色,这对德国来说是上天的恩赐。我们一直很欣赏德国人的表现。德国人实际上工作时间比很多国家的人都少,但产出却多得多,当然,沃伦和我在这一点上也做得不错。(笑声)所以我们很欣赏德国人,尤其是工程方面,但我们想收购优质德国公司的念头已经持续很长时间了,最终我们买下了一家。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we — we've had a hard time buying things in Europe. It's been quite rare. And I think the traditions, and the family traditions, are different in Europe than they are in the United States, and in some other countries. And Germany, of course, has a long tradition of being very good at technology and capitalism, and that's been a godsend to Germany. And we've always admired the way the Germans have performed. The Germans actually work fewer hours than a lot of other people and produce a lot more and, of course, Warren and I are pretty good at that. (Laughter) So we're — we admire the Germans, particularly the engineering side, and — but we've been thinking about owning good German companies for a long time and we finally bought one.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。不过我要做个预测。我预测未来五年内,我们至少会收购一家德国公司。我觉得我们在德国的知名度比几年前高得多。我们现在有一位女性员工,她通过别人介绍,把 Louis 带到了我们面前。我觉得她会因为和我们做了这笔交易,以及我们试图宣传她对我们帮助这件事,而听到更多的机会。所以,如果未来五年我们在德国连一笔交易都做不成,我会非常惊讶,而且我很期待能做成一笔。我的意思是,我们会非常非常高兴——你知道,我们得找到一家我们能理解的生意。自从 Louis 的交易宣布之后,过去几个月我大概收到了四五封信,但几乎每封提到的都是很小的公司。不过我们会买到的。我们很渴望,我们有资金,而且我们偶尔也确实符合家族企业的需求。那边的价格可能比美国更有吸引力,虽然我还没看到任何我们买下的东西。但我想说,那边提供给我们的某个东西的价格,有可能比现在美国的价格更吸引我。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. But I'll make a prediction. I will predict we buy at least one German company in the next five years. I think that — I think we are far more on the radar screen than we were just a few years ago in Germany. I think we now have a woman over there who brought, through somebody else as well, but brought Louis to our attention. I think she is going to hear about more things because of her association with us on the transaction and the fact that we tried to get the word out as to her help with us. So, I would really be surprised if we don't make at least one deal in Germany in the next five years, and I would look forward to it. I mean, we'll be very, very happy with — you know, we have to get a business, we understand. I've had, probably, four or five letters in the last couple months, ever since the Louis deal was announced, but they've been very small businesses in practically each case. But we'll get one. We're eager, we've got the money, and we do fit the family situation, occasionally. And prices may be a little more attractive there than in the United States, although I haven't seen anything yet that we've bought. But I would say that there's a reasonable chance that the price of something we're offered over there might catch my attention more than U.S. prices, currently.

为什么竞争对手有时定价低于 GEICO

Why competitors sometimes underprice GEICO

沃伦·巴菲特好的。贝基。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Becky.

贝基·奎克这个问题引起了我的注意,不是因为我认为这是个投诉,而是我觉得这确实是个关于你们在 GEICO 使用的精算模型的问题。提问者是 Stan Zion。他说:“我和我太太都是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东。我 78 岁,她 74 岁。我们有长期无事故驾驶记录。然而,当我们用股东折扣向 GEICO 申请保险时,GEICO 的费率无法击败其他优秀公司提供的类似保障的费率。为什么?”

BECKY QUICKThis question caught my attention not because I think it's a complaint, but I think it's an actual question about the actuarial models that you use at GEICO. It comes from Stan Zion (PH). And he says, "My wife and I are stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway. I'm 78 and she's 74. We have a long-time accident-free driving record. Yet, when we applied to GEICO with our stockholder discount, GEICO was unable to beat our rates for comparable coverage with other fine companies. Why?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,原因就是,在联系我们的人中,我们大概有 40% 的情况能打败其他公司的费率,60% 的情况做不到。没有哪家公司能在所有情况下都是最低的。我们有自己的承保标准,涉及很多变量,其中一个是年龄,但在这个年龄段不会成为主导因素。但我们有很多很多变量。我们进行计算,像 State Farm、Allstate、USAA 这样非常优秀的竞争对手,他们承保时的权重分配略有不同,有时他们的费率会低于我们。但我认为,没有哪家规模较大的公司能比 GEICO 更频繁地成为最低价。我们每周通过电话向成千上万的人提供报价。我每周都会收到数据,包括报价数量和售出的保单数量。我可以告诉你,我们卖出去的保单比例非常高。如果我们收取的费用比他们之前的公司还高,我们是卖不出去的。所以,不同的人会给不同的变量分配不同的权重。你提到的这对夫妇,听起来他们应该能从某家公司得到很好的费率,但他们显然从别的公司得到了比我们更好的报价。这种情况总是会发生,也许 60% 的时候如此,40% 的时候我们能做成生意。因为我们目前只占整个市场的 11%,这意味着我们还有大量保单持有人可以争取。当你思考如何评估驾驶员时,这是一个有趣的问题。你知道,我们知道 16 岁的男孩几乎是表现最差的;16 岁的女孩则好一些。这意味着她们是更好的司机吗?不一定。可能意味着她们没有同样的炫耀倾向。可能意味着她们开的里程数更少。可能意味着很多不同的事情。所以我们会问很多问题,别人会问不同的问题,我们就会得出不同的费率。但花 15 分钟给 GEICO 打个电话绝对值得。(笑声)查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it's the reason that we probably can beat the rate maybe 40 percent of the time with people who contact us and 60 percent of the time we can't. No company is going to be the lowest in all cases. And we have our own underwriting criteria that involves many variables, one of which is age, but it wouldn't be a dominant one at that age. But we have many, many variables. And we make our calculations, and very good competitors like State Farm and Allstate, USAA, and so on, they have somewhat different underwriting weightings and sometimes they come in below us. But I don't think any company, of size, will be the lowest more often than GEICO. We give out quotes on the telephone to many, many thousands of people every week. I get the figures every week, and I get the number of quotes, and I get the number of policies sold. And I can tell you the percentages are very substantial that we sell. And we're not selling them if we're charging them more than the people before them. So it — different people have different weightings for different variables. And the couple you referred to sound like they should get a very good rate from somebody, but they apparently got a better rate from somebody else other than us. And that's going to happen, perhaps 60 percent of the time, and 40 percent of the time we're going to get the business. And since we're only 11 percent of the whole market now, it means we've got a lot of policyholders yet to gather. The — it's an interesting question when you're looking at how to evaluate drivers. You know, we know that 16-year-old boys are about as bad as they get; 16-year-old girls are a better class. Does that mean they're better drivers? Not necessarily. It may mean they don't have the same tendency to show off. It may mean they don't drive as many miles. It may mean a whole lot of things. So we ask a lot of questions, and other people ask different questions, and we will come up with different rates. But it's definitely worth 15 minutes to call GEICO. (Laughter) Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我想说的是,除此之外——当你进入老年人群体,发现自己衰退速度比大多数同龄人慢时,你支付的保费可能不太公平,但这笔买卖很划算。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I would say besides if — when you get into the older people's group and you find you're not deteriorating as fast as most of your contemporaries, you may be paying an unfair price for the insurance, but it's a good tradeoff. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特加里。我以前从没这么想过。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTGary. I haven't thought of it that way before. (Laughter)

再保险业务因“伪装”而恶化

Reinsurance business getting worse due to "facades"

加里·兰塞姆再保险市场在过去两三年里发生了巨大变化,大量替代资本进入这个行业,使得很难再假设下一次重大灾难事件之后会出现巨大机会。您和阿吉特计划做哪些改变或采取什么行动,来利用可能出现的任何机会?

GARY RANSOMThe reinsurance market has changed dramatically over the last two or three years, a lot of alternative capital coming into the business, making it much harder to make the assumption that there would be a big opportunity after the next big catastrophic event. What is it that you and Ajit are planning to change, or do, to take advantage of whatever opportunities might be there?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,难道我们的竞争对手会不想知道吗?(笑)再保险业务不像以前那么好了,而且也不太可能回到以前那么好。大量资金涌入再保险,不是因为人们想提供再保险,而是因为它已经成为一种时髦的资产类别,适合那些寻找所谓非相关性投资的人,他们可能根本不知道自己正在做什么,但你可以把这种东西推销出去,作为吸引养老基金的卖点。其次,它也是进行资产管理的伪装。所以,如果你去百慕大成立一家再保险公司,你实际上可以运营一个对冲基金,你需要一点业务来让你看起来不像是在运营对冲基金,并且将其设在海外以便避税,这才是主要动机。所以,当一大群人带着资金进来,他们需要你的再保险这层伪装来掩盖其真实动机时,再保险的价格就不太可能那么有吸引力了。这种情况已经大规模地发生了,我想说,我预计未来十年的再保险业务不会像过去三十年那样好。这个行业的前景已经变差,我们对此无能为力。我们确实能找到一些事情做。有些事情只有伯克希尔·哈撒韦能做,我在年报中提到过,有八份——我记得是八份——保费超过 10 亿美元的合同,我们写了全部八份。所以,我们在世界的某个角落有很强的地位,我们还会做一些其他事情,但情况不如从前了。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, wouldn't our competitors like to know? (Laughs) The reinsurance business is not as good as it was, and it's unlikely to be as good as it was. There's a lot of money that's come into reinsurance, not because they want to reinsure people, but because it's become either a fashionable asset class for people that are looking for so-called noncorrelated investments and may not know what they're doing, but it's something you can sell people, you know, that's an attractive line to go to pension funds with. And then, secondly, it's a beard for doing — for asset management. So, if you go to Bermuda and start a reinsurance company, you can actually run a hedge fund, and you need a little business to make it look like you're doing something other than running a hedge fund, and locating it offshore so you don't pay any tax, but that's the primary motivation. So when you get a whole lot of people that are bringing money in and they sort of need your facade of reinsurance to cover up what their real motivations are, you're likely to get less attractive prices in reinsurance. And that's been happening on a fairly large scale, and I would say that I would expect the reinsurance business in the next 10 years to not be as good as it has been — I'm talking about the whole industry — as it has been, you know, in the last 30 or something like that. It's a business whose prospects have turned for the worse, and there's not much we can do about it. We do find things to do. There are certain things that only Berkshire can do, and we've — I mentioned in the annual report that there have been eight—I think it was eight—contracts written with premiums of a billion dollars or more, and we've written all eight of them. So, we do — there's a certain corner of the world that we've got a strong position in, and there's a few other things we will do, but it's not as good as it was. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我认为,总体来说,当然会越来越难,而且这种来自促销性融资的竞争正变得越来越激烈,他们更加乐观。他们在寻找一个强劲的故事。我们不是在寻找一个强劲的故事以便出售东西。我们是在为长远而玩这个游戏,而其他人只是假装这样做。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think, generally speaking, of course, it's going to be harder and, of course, this competition from promotional finance is getting more and more intense and they're more optimistic. They're searching for a robust narrative. We're not searching for a robust narrative so we can sell something. We're playing the game for the long pull and other people just pretend to be doing so.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我们本来可以——在很长一段时间里,我们都有机会——跑出去推销再保险这类资金,并且着实从中受益,你知道,因为我们在这一行声誉最好,能吸引到海量资金,还能从中赚取一大笔佣金。但这不是我们的玩法。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We could — we've had the opportunity over — for a long period of time — to go out and promote reinsurance-type money, and really take advantage, you know, of people on it, because we would have the best reputation in the field, and we could attract a ton of money, and we could get a big overwrite on it. But it's not our game.

查理·芒格而且我们也不怎么欣赏别人那种玩法。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd we don't particularly admire the way it's being played.

如何赢得朋友并影响他人

How to win friends and influence people

沃伦·巴菲特3 号台。

WARREN BUFFETTStation 3.

现场股东巴菲特先生和芒格先生,我叫(听不清),来自南佛罗里达,现在读七年级。我的问题是,怎样才能交到很多朋友,让别人喜欢你并愿意与你共事?

AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, my name is (inaudible) from South Florida, and I'm currently in seventh grade. My question is how do you make lots of friends and get people to like you and work with you?

沃伦·巴菲特这问题问得不错。(掌声)非常好的问题。

WARREN BUFFETTThat's not a bad question. (Applause) Very good question.

查理·芒格嗯,你知道,我跟你这么大的时候性格相当讨人嫌,总爱问些无礼的问题,不是人人都喜欢我。所以我唯一能让大家稍微喜欢我一点的办法,就是变得非常有钱、非常乐善好施。(笑声)这招管用。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, you know, I was pretty obnoxious when I was your age and asked a lot of impertinent questions, and not everybody liked me. And so the only way I could get the people to like me a little bit was to get very rich and very generous. (Laughter) That will work.

沃伦·巴菲特只要人们觉得你会开支票,他们就会在你身上发现种种美德。(笑声)是啊。我们俩——查理和我早年间都算讨人嫌那一类,但随着年纪渐长,你对人类行为的理解总会更明白一点。一路走来,我也算碰到了一些相当好的老师,教了我哪些方法管用。我的意思是,我这一辈子一直在观察别人,也在观察这些出色的老师。他们并非传统意义上的老师,但他们是我钦佩的人,我总在心里问自己:“我为什么钦佩这些人?”而如果我自己也想受人钦佩,那我何不学一学他们身上的一些品质呢?所以,这不是什么复杂的问题。你只要环顾四周,看看学校里你喜欢的那些人,写下他们做的哪三四件事让你喜欢他们;再环顾四周,找出三四个让你反感的人,写下他们让你反感的那些品质,然后下决心让自己成为你自己也会喜欢的那种人,去培养前面那些人的品质。你慷慨,你友善,你用良好的幽默感接纳不顺,你不居功,所有这些品质。而且这些都是你做得到的。如果你喜欢别人身上的这些品质,别人也会喜欢你身上的这些品质。而如果你发觉一些讨人嫌的东西——你总是迟到,你总是夸大自己的功劳,你对什么事情都习惯于否定——而你自己也不喜欢别人有这些毛病,那就从自己身上改掉它们。你会发现,这方法非常管用。(掌声)

WARREN BUFFETTPeople will see all kinds of virtues in you if they think you'll write a check. (Laughter) Yeah. The two of us — both Charlie and I were on the obnoxious side early on, but you should get a little smarter about human behavior as you get older. And I turned out to have some pretty good teachers as I went along, in terms of what worked. I mean, I have looked at other people during my lifetime and at these wonderful teachers. They weren't teachers in the standard definition, but they were people I admired and I thought to myself, "Why do I admire these people?" And if I want to be admired myself, you know, why shouldn't I take on some of their qualities? So, it's not a complicated proposition, you know. If you look around you at the people you like in your school, write down three or four things they do that make you like them, and then look around at the three or four people that turn you off, and write down those qualities, and decide that you're going to be a person you, yourself, would like, that you'd take on the qualities of the person on the left. You're generous, you're friendly, you know, you accept things with good humor, you don't claim credit for things you don't do, all of these things. And they're all possible to do. And if you like that in other people, people are going to like it in you. And if you find things that are kind of obnoxious, you're always late, you're always claiming credit for more than you do, and you're kind of negative on everything, and you don't like those in other people, get rid of them in yourself and you'll find out it works pretty well. (Applause)

查理·芒格而且在婚姻里也确实非常管用。如果你能改变自己,而不是总想去改变你的配偶,这主意不错。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd it really works in marriage. If you can change yourself instead of trying to change your spouse, that's a good idea. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特查理还说过,选择婚姻伴侣最重要的一点,不是看对方有没有头脑、幽默感或者好品性。他说,你得找一个对你期望值不高的人。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie has said the most important thing in selecting a marriage partner is that you don't look for intelligence or humor or character. He says you look for someone with low expectations. (Laughter)

尽管存在劳工问题,收购 NetJets 并非错误

NetJets wasn't a mistake despite labor problems

沃伦·巴菲特好。安德鲁?

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Andrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金好的。这是一个关于 NetJets 的问题。我们收到了好几个跟 NetJets 有关的问题,把它们合并成两个。第一个是,您能否谈谈与正在外面举牌抗议的 NetJets 飞行员之间旷日持久的纠纷?还有,惠特尼·蒂尔森问:“对于 NetJets 价值数十亿美元的飞机订单,您预期能获得怎样的投资回报率?”他措辞非常尖锐地写道:“收购 NetJets 是个错误吗?”

ANDREW ROSS SORKINOK. This is a question about NetJets. We received several related to NetJets. We've combined these two. The first is, can you comment on the lengthy dispute with NetJets' pilots who are picketing outside, and Whitney Tillson asks, "What type of return on investment do you expect from the billions on order in aircraft for NetJets," and in a very pointed way, he writes, "Was buying NetJets a mistake?"

沃伦·巴菲特不,我不认为收购 NetJets 是个错误。我们有过一些事情,在一段时间内看起来像是个错误,其中一些最终确实成了错误。但 NetJets 是一项相当不错的业务。我们有一门好生意;飞行员有一份好工作。而且——我认为,从我们订购的数十亿美元飞机的投资回报率角度来看,并非正确的看法,因为我们把这些飞机转售给机主。我们确实有一个核心机队代表着一项投资,但这项投资在很大程度上是由机主自己持有的。我拥有——我拥有多少?我拥有我孩子们使用的那种机型的大约 3/16 的权益。我拥有我自己使用的那种机型的 1/8 的权益。但那是我的投资,不是 NetJets 的投资。至于劳资关系——在伯克希尔,我们多年来有数百个工会,真的数以百计。事实上,我们现在可能就有数百个。而在 50 年里,我记得只发生过三次罢工。我不认为还有其他罢工。可能有过一些一日的停工,也许吧。但我们在伯克希尔·哈撒韦的纺织业务有过一次为期四天的罢工,30 年前在《布法罗新闻》有过一次大约四天的罢工,还有一次是在喜诗糖果。所以,我们完全没有反工会的议程,而且我们认为我们有出色的飞行员。我的意思是,我坐 NetJets 飞行,我的家人也坐 NetJets 飞行,已经 20 年了,我们遇到的都是专业且友善的飞行员。而且这不——你知道,人性中有时会对报酬产生分歧。我们的飞行员平均年薪 14.5 万美元。他们工作——他们工作 7 天——他们有几种排班选择,但主要的一种是上 7 天休 7 天。我们支付他们前往基地的路程时间。他们可以住在美国的任何地方。与我们的竞争对手如 Flexjets 或 Flight Options 等,或包机公司相比,我们付的薪水很高。但雇主和雇员之间时不时出现分歧,这是完全可以理解的。我们会解决这个问题,但这不一定能在一天、一周或一个月内完成。我们的飞行量在上升,在美国的机主数量也在上升。欧洲则持平。但美国是更大的部分。所以这是一项我非常高兴拥有它的业务。我为我们拥有它而自豪。这是一流的运营。我相信我们给飞行员提供的培训比任何人都多。我自己坐 NetJets 飞。我的孩子们都坐 NetJets 飞。很多情况下,我们的经理们也坐它飞,所以没有人比我们更关心安全。这不是一家 CEO 坐自己的飞机而其他人坐其他飞机飞的公司。所以我——我得到和其他人一样的飞机,一样的飞行员。我的意思是,没有特殊安排。所以我们对安全有强烈的关注,我们有非常专业的飞行员。目前,我们在合同上存在意见分歧,但在我看来,这将会得到解决。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTNo, I don't think buying NetJets was a mistake. We've had a few things where it looked like a mistake for quite a while and some of them turned out to be a mistake. But NetJets is a very decent business. We have a good business; the pilots have a good job. And the — it's not really the right way to look at it, I don't think, in terms of return on investment in the billions of dollars of orders we have because we resell those planes to owners. And we do have a core fleet that represents an investment, but the investment is held, in very large part, by the owners themselves. I own — what do I own? Three-sixteenths, or something like that, of one type of plane that my children use. I own an eighth of another plane that I use. But that's my investment; it's not the NetJets investment. The — labor relations — at Berkshire we've had hundreds of labor unions over the years, literally hundreds. In fact, we probably have hundreds at the present time. And we've only had — in 50 years — we've had three strikes that I can remember. I don't think there have been any others. There could have been some one-day walkout, maybe. But we had a four-day strike at a Berkshire Hathaway textile operation, we had a four-day or so strike at the Buffalo News 30 years ago, and we had another strike at See's Candy one time. So, we have no anti-union agenda whatsoever, and we think we have sensational pilots. I mean, I've flown NetJets, my family has flown NetJets, now for 20 years, and we've had nothing but professional pilots and friendly pilots. And it's not — you know, it's in human nature to have differences, sometimes, about what people get paid. Our pilots make an average of 145,000 a year. They worked — they work seven — they have options, but one of the options, and the main option, is seven days on and seven days off. We pay for their time to get to where they're based. They can live anyplace in the country. And compared to our competitors at Flexjets or Flight Options or so on, or in charter, we pay well. But it's perfectly understandable that employers and employees have some differences from time to time. And we'll get it worked out, but that doesn't necessarily come in a day or a week or a month. And our volume is up, in terms of flying. Our volume is up, in terms of owners in the United States. Europe is flat. But the United States is the bigger end of it. So it's a business I'm very glad we own. I'm proud we own it. It's a first-class operation. We give our pilots more training, I believe, than anybody else. I'm flying on NetJets. My kids are all flying on NetJets. Our managers, in many cases, are flying on it, so nobody cares more about safety. This is not a company where the CEO flies on his own jet and other people fly in other ways. So I — and I get the same — I get the same planes that the other people get and the same pilots. I mean, there's no special arrangements. So we've got this intense interest in safety, and we've got very professional pilots. And at the moment, we've got a difference of opinion about a contract, but that will get settled, in my view. Charlie?

查理·芒格这么多年以来,我碰到的每一位 NetJets 飞行员,给我的印象都是很棒的伙计,技术极其熟练、能干,而且尽职可靠。我想说大多数——我想不出有哪一位 NetJets 飞行员以任何方式流露过他对生活不满意,相反,很多飞行员都说他们很热爱这份工作。就因为这个,我完全不能确定工会是否在公平地代表这些飞行员。

CHARLIE MUNGERI have never, in all the years, had a NetJets pilot who didn't affect me as a wonderful fellow and a very skilled, able, and dutiful, reliable person. And I would say most — I can think of no NetJets pilot that has ever in any way indicated that he's dissatisfied with his life, and a lot of them say they just love it, because of the — I'm not at all sure the union is fairly representing the pilots.

沃伦·巴菲特好。(掌声)查理刚才说的是“伙计们”。其实我们也有很多女飞行员。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. (Applause) He said fellows. Actually, we have a lot of women pilots, too.

税法促成了金霸王与宝洁的交易

Tax code helped Duracell-P&G deal

沃伦·巴菲特格雷格?

WARREN BUFFETTGregg?

格雷格·沃伦沃伦,回顾你从宝洁手里收购金霸王的那笔交易,在交易发生时,你曾指出金霸王是一个拥有顶级产品的全球领先品牌。你显然对这个业务很熟悉,它最初于 1996 年被吉列收购。虽然金霸王确实能提供相当稳定的现金流,并拥有强大的品牌和市场地位,但其核心业务正在走下坡路,技术进步使得碱性电池的重要性已远不如 20 年前。从历史来看,你一直愿意继续持有那些处于衰退行业的业务,只要它们能继续为伯克希尔整体贡献一些现金,因此把金霸王放进投资组合里,本身倒也不算反常。我的问题是,考虑到你持有的宝洁股票成本基础极低,而且过去几年你一直在卖出其中一部分,税务筹划在这笔交易中实际起了多大作用?如果不考虑税务因素,你还会做这笔交易吗?如果会,会以什么价格?

GREGG WARRENWarren, looking at your acquisition of Duracell from Procter & Gamble, at the time of the deal, you noted that Duracell is a leading global brand with top quality products. You're obviously familiar with the business, which was initially acquired by Gillette in 1996. While Duracell does provide fairly steady cash flows and has a strong brand in market position, its core business is in decline, with advances in technology making alkaline batteries far less relevant than they were 20 years ago. Looking back historically, you've been willing to hang onto businesses operating in declining industries as long as they continue to generate some cash for Berkshire overall, so having Duracell in the portfolio is not necessarily out of the ordinary. The question I have is, how much of a role did tax planning actually play in doing this deal, given the extremely low-cost basis on your P&G shares, some of which you've been selling the last several years? And would you have done this deal without tax considerations? And, if so, at what price?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,以这种方式做交易,宝洁和伯克希尔·哈撒韦双方都有税务上的好处,所以如果没有各自享有的税收优惠,他们很可能不会以交易实际发生的价格出售,我们也不会以那个价格买入。这其中还有一点——我们必须持有宝洁股票超过五年。这项条款在税法里已经存在很长时间了,它被写进税法跟我们毫无关系,但它是税法的一部分。这有点类似于房地产置换安排,你可以置换房地产并递延所有税款。我们在金霸王上没有取得新的计税基础,而是保留了原来更低的旧计税基础,就像在——他们怎么叫它来着?是说第 1231 条还是——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, both Procter & Gamble and Berkshire Hathaway had tax advantages in doing the deal this way, so they probably wouldn't have sold it at the price at which the deal took place, and we wouldn't have bought it at the price, without the tax benefits that each enjoyed. And this is something — we had to have held our stock for over five years in Procter & Gamble. It's something that's been in the code a long time that we've had nothing to do with it being in the code, but it's part of the code. And it's somewhat similar to the real estate exchange arrangement, where you can exchange real estate and defer any tax. And we don't get a new tax basis on the Duracell; we keep the old lower tax base, just like on — what do they call it? Is it section 1231 or —

查理·芒格对。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.

沃伦·巴菲特——房地产置换。所以跟那个类似,答案是,如果不是因为我们可以做这种置换安排,从宝洁的立场来看不会有这笔交易,从伯克希尔的立场来看,也很可能不会有这笔交易。至于业务在下滑的那一部分,电池业务确实会是一个走下坡路的业务,但从全球范围看,它还会存在非常、非常、非常长的时间。金霸王的地位极为稳固,是一门相当好的生意。而且,就像你说的,我在吉列董事会任职时就已经很熟悉它了。但是——你知道,它的销量会随着时间推移而下降,不过我认为我们在金霸王这笔投资上会做得不错。我很期待完成这笔交易,可能要到第四季度才能完成,因为我们必须把它从宝洁的 IT 系统、配送中心以及其他所有交织在一起的业务中剥离出来。不过,与宝洁的合作一直非常棒。他们正在做交接——你知道,这段时间他们配合得再好不过了。等我们拥有它的时候,我会非常高兴。

WARREN BUFFETT— real estate exchanges. So it's analogous to that, and the answer is that there wouldn't have been a transaction from Procter & Gamble's standpoint and there wouldn't have been a transaction, probably, from Berkshire's standpoint, if it hadn't been for the fact that we could do an exchange arrangement. As to the declining business part, the battery business will be a declining business, but it will be around for a very, very, very long time on a worldwide basis. And Duracell has a very strong position. It's a very good business. And, like you say, I was familiar with it when I was on the Gillette board. But the — you know, it will have unit declines over a period of time, but I think we'll do fine with the Duracell investment. I'm looking forward to getting the deal complete, which probably won't take place until the fourth quarter because we have to get it detached from a lot of other things like the IT and distribution centers and everything else that it's involved in with P&G. But P&G has been great to work with. They're making the transition — you know, they couldn't be better to work with during that period, and I'll be very happy when we own it.

为什么我要捐出大部分财富

Why I'm giving away most of my wealth

沃伦·巴菲特4 号站。

WARREN BUFFETTStation 4.

现场股东你好,沃伦和查理。我是马文·布拉姆(Marvin Blum),是来自得克萨斯州沃斯堡的一名遗产规划律师,你们有四家公司就设在沃斯堡。顺带一提,我们对内布拉斯加家具城和伯克希尔·哈撒韦汽车集团在达拉斯/沃斯堡地区的新店感到非常兴奋。除了奥马哈,我们希望你们把沃斯堡当做自己的第二故乡。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHello, Warren and Charlie. I am Marvin Blum, an estate planning lawyer from Fort Worth, Texas, home to four of your companies. And by the way, we're excited about the new Nebraska Furniture Mart and the Berkshire Hathaway Automotive Group in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Next to Omaha, we hope you think of Fort Worth as your second home.

沃伦·巴菲特那儿对我们一直很不错。其实,我们在那儿已经有五家公司了。米泰克刚收购了一家。

WARREN BUFFETTIt's been good to us. And actually, we have five companies down there. MiTek just bought one.

现场股东好的,那更好了。在几年前的股东大会上,我曾问过你的遗产计划,以及你那个想法:给子女留的钱要足够让他们可以做任何事,但又不能多到让他们可以什么都不做。今天,我想问问你关于你签署“捐赠誓言”、承诺将至少一半资产捐给慈善机构的决定。能谈谈你对慈善事业的看法,以及如何在给家人留遗产和把资产捐给慈善之间取得平衡吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERAll right. Even better. At the annual meeting a couple years ago, I asked about your estate plan and your idea of leaving kids enough so they can do anything, but not so much that they can do nothing. Today, I'd like to ask you about your decision to sign the Giving Pledge, promising to give away at least one-half of your assets to charity. Can you talk about your views on philanthropy, and how to balance leaving an inheritance to your family versus assets to charity?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这在很大程度上取决于每个人的具体情况。就我个人而言,我实际上承诺的是捐出超过 99%。但即便如此,还是会剩下不少钱。(掌声)如你所知,遗产税免税额在过去几年大幅提高了,所以——如果我的孩子曾经积极工作,帮我一起创建了企业,诸如此类,而且那是一家小企业,我想把它留给他们,我的感受可能会截然不同。但在今天,这类传承确实可以做到而无需缴纳任何遗产税,尤其是如果提前做些规划的话。这完全是一件因人而异的事情。我——正如查理——你知道,当你到了——琢磨怎么处理你的钱时,选项就变得相当——有限了。就像查理前几天说的,他说,他要去的地方,钱对他也没多大用了。(笑声)你知道,墓地里面可没有福布斯 400 富豪榜。所以问题就是,钱在哪儿能发挥最大的作用?我认为,留给我的子女,它能带来的实际好处是有限的,所以我会确保他们得到那部分——或者说,在某种程度上,他们已经得到了。另一方面,当我看着保险箱里那些大约 50 年前就放在那儿的股票凭证时,它们对我来说毫无实际用途,一点用都没有。它们在我有生之年不能为我做任何事。我是说,它们不能让我一天摄入 7000 卡路里而不是 3000 卡路里。它们不能——什么都做不了。我已经拥有了世界上我想要的一切,而且已经拥有几十年了。如果我还要点别的什么,我直接去买就是了。那么,就是这些东西,对我毫无实际用途,但它们对世界上另一些地方的人来说,用途却极其巨大。我是说,它们能挽救生命,能提供疫苗,能提供教育,有各种各样的用途。所以,当它们现在就能发挥巨大作用的时候,凭什么还让它们在那里,为了我而放着,或者留给我那不知哪一代的曾孙之类的人呢?所以,这就是我自己的哲学,但我认为每个人都得形成自己对此的看法,并遵从自己的内心去做。我确实认为——我确实认为他们可以问问自己,钱——你知道,放在哪里能发挥最大的作用?这笔钱是用来为成千上万根本没有机会像我一样过上体面生活的人做些事情意义重大,还是留给我自己意义重大,这两者之间的差异可能相当悬殊。我是说,就算——我可以拥有十套房子,但我——你知道,我完全可以买下一家酒店自己住进去。但我会更快乐吗?那太疯狂了。查理和我都喜欢相当简单的生活。但我们唯一明确知道的是,我们知道我们自己喜欢什么、不喜欢什么,而不是用别人的喜好来衡量。所以,我不太给得出什么建议,但我会说,开始思考这件事吧。当我打电话给人们谈“捐赠誓言”时,你知道,有些人——我会联系到某个 70 岁的人,他说:“你知道,我还不太想考虑这个。”我总是告诉他:“你难道是打算等到 95 岁,腿上坐着个金发女郎的时候再做更好的决定吗?”(笑声)事实上,几年前还真有人试过这招,你们可能都知道。(笑声)查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it depends very much on the individual situation. And actually, I promised to give over 99 percent, in my case. But that still leave plenty left over. (Applause) As you know, the estate tax exemption has been moved up substantially here in the last couple years, so you — I might have a very different feeling if I'd had a child that worked actively, helped me build the business, and all that sort of thing, and it was a small business, and I wanted to give it to them. But that can be really done without any estate tax these days, particularly if a little planning is used ahead of time. It's a very individual thing. I — as Charlie — you know, when you get to the — figuring out what you do with your money, the options get very — fairly — limited. And as Charlie said the other day, you know, he said where he's going it won't do him much good anyway. (Laughter) There's no Forbes 400, you know, in the graveyard. So the question is, where does it do the most good? And I think it does limited amounts to do some real good for my children, so I'll be sure that they have that, or they already have it, to a degree. And, on the other hand, when I look at a bunch of stock certificates in a safe deposit box that were put there 50 years ago or so, they have absolutely no utility to me, zero. They can't do anything for me in life. I mean, they can't let me consume 7,000 calories a day instead of 3,000. They can't — there's nothing they can do. I've got everything in the world I want, and I've had it for decades. If I wanted something additionally, I'd go buy it. So, here these things are that have no utility to me and they have enormous utility to some people in other parts of the world. I mean, they can save lives. They can provide vaccines. They can provide education. There are all kinds of utility. So why in the world should they sit there for me or for, you know, some fourth generation down of great-grandchildren or something, when they can do a lot of good now? So that's my own philosophy on it, but I think everybody has to develop their own feelings about it and should follow where they go. I do think — I do think they might ask themselves, what — you know, where will it do the most good? And it can be pretty dramatic between what it can do for millions of people that don't really have remotely the same shot at having a decent life that I've had, or what it, you know, what it can do for me. I mean, if it — I could have 10 houses, but, you know, I could buy a hotel to live in, you know. But would I be happier? It would be crazy. Charlie and I both like fairly simple lives. But the one thing we do know is we know what we like and what we don't like, and we don't judge it by what other people like. So I don't have too much advice for anybody, but I would say start thinking about it. When I call people on the Giving Pledge, you know, some of them — I'll get some 70-year-old and he says, "You know, I don't want to think about it yet." And I always tell him. "Are you going to make a better decision when you're 95 with some blond on your lap?" (Laughter) That actually was tried a few years ago, as you may know. (Laughter) Charlie?

查理·芒格不是,不过我倒是想到,那位抱怨税收制度的朋友应该记得,最近遗产税规则改了,你可以留给子女 500 万美元,等等诸如此类的。我认为这是一个非常具有建设性的法律修改。所以我不认为我们应该假定我们的政客们总是在彻底发疯。我认为那是一个相当可取的变化。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, but it does occur to me that that fellow that was complaining about the tax system should remember that when — they recently changed the estate tax rules, so you can leave 5 million to your kids, and so forth. I think that's a very constructive change in the law. So I don't think we should assume that our politicians are always going to be totally crazy. That was a very desirable change, I think.

把长期持有的股票分配给股东?

Distribute long-term stock holdings to shareholders?

沃伦·巴菲特好,卡罗尔。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Carol.

卡罗尔·卢米斯提问者名叫安德烈·巴特尔(Andre Bartel,音),是伯克希尔的一位股东。“这样做是否合理”——这里我补充一下我自己的编辑,这样做是否在法律上允许——“伯克希尔未来是否可能,以税务有效的方式,将任何一部分或某些长期股权投资,例如可口可乐或美国运通,分配给股东,就像雅虎计划处理其持有的阿里巴巴股份那样?这一想法的思路是,用伯克希尔未在积极管理的资产(也就是一段时间以来没有买进卖出、且由于所得税影响而卖出意愿极低的资产)来回馈股东,同时不至于抽走那些由伯克希尔管理层进行再投资会比股东自行投资更好的资源——即现金。”

CAROL LOOMISThe questioner's name is Andre Bartel (PH), and he's a Berkshire shareholder. "Would it make sense" — and I'm going to add my own edit here to say, and would it be legally permissible — "for Berkshire to distribute, at some time in the future, any or some of the long-term equity investments, for example, Coca-Cola or American Express, to the shareholders in a tax-sufficient way, as Yahoo is planning to do with the Alibaba stake, for example? "The idea would be to return capital to shareholders using assets that Berkshire is not actively managing, that is, has not bought or sold for some time, and has very low incentive to sell because of income tax implications, while not taking away resources—cash—that could be reinvested by the Berkshire management better than by its shareholders."

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,实际上我觉得雅虎也没解决这个问题。查理,你也关注这事儿了。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I don't think Yahoo solved it, actually. Charlie, you follow that, too.

查理·芒格我认为我们没法用美国运通之类的东西那么做。这是个糟糕的例子。我们没那个办法。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't think that we can do that with American Express and so forth. It's a bad example. We've got no way of doing that.

沃伦·巴菲特不。很多年前确实有办法这么做,也确实有人做过。我不是指我们,但我见过其他例子。但根据现行税法,没有办法用已经增值的证券来回购自家股票——你可以用它们来做类似收购的事情,比如金霸王那种用同类资产交换,但没办法在不缴纳全部资本利得税的情况下分给股东。而且——

WARREN BUFFETTNo. There used to be a way to do that many years ago, and it was done. I don't mean by us, but I saw other examples of it. But, under the code, there's no way to use appreciated securities to redeem your own shares, to — you can do it for something like acquiring, where you're exchanging it for like asset type thing on the Duracell arrangement, but there's no way to distribute it to shareholders without paying the full capital gains tax. And —

查理·芒格没错,把整个业务分拆给股东是可以的,如果你持有很久的话,但这差不多是唯一能做的事了。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, spinoffs of whole businesses to shareholders, if you held them a long time, but that's about the only thing you can do.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,但即使那样,我的意思是,雅虎的做法并没有避开税收。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, but even there, I mean, what Yahoo has done has not got rid of the tax.

查理·芒格我对雅虎一无所知。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't know anything about Yahoo.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。不——或者说他们打算做的事。如果阿里巴巴最终想自己回购,那可能会给他们一些别的选择。我是说,也许他们能跟阿里巴巴谈成某种交易。我看不出他们怎么能避开税收,除非他们之后跟阿里巴巴再做一笔交易,但也许他们得到了我没见过的税务建议。我的意思是,我知道很多案例——公司——在可交易证券上有大量未实现收益,而近年来我没见过——虽然我职业生涯早期,法律不同时见过——任何能把那些钱弄到股东手里、同时不在公司层面缴税的办法。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. No. The — or what they're planning to do. It may give them some other option if Alibaba wants to eventually redeem it themselves. I mean, there could be something where they could work out a deal with Alibaba. I do not see how that they've gotten rid of the tax, unless they do a subsequent transaction of some sort with Alibaba, but maybe they have different tax advice than I've seen. I mean, I know all kinds of cases where people — where corporations — have unrealized — large unrealized — gains in marketable securities, and I have not seen, in recent years — although I did see it early in my career when the law was different, but I've not seen in recent years any way that people have gotten that money into the hands of the shareholders without paying a tax at the corporate level. Charlie?

查理·芒格不,这就是——这就是我们想说的。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo. That's — that's what we say.

年轻人减少组建家庭是永久性的吗?

Is reduced household formation by young people permanent?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,乔纳森?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Jonathan?

乔纳森·布兰特伯克希尔旗下有多家受益于独栋住宅建设的公司:ACME、约翰斯·曼维尔、本杰明·摩尔、MiTek 和 Shaw 等,更不用说铁路公司了。金融危机后,您说过,那些因与父母或姻亲同住而推迟组建家庭的年轻人,最终会厌倦这种安排,一旦就业市场改善甚至不改善,我们就会看到正常的家庭组建率。现在就业机会增多了,但家庭组建率仍低于被认为正常的水平,原因可能是学生债务高企、对购房态度的转变,或首次购房者的抵押贷款条件更严格。是否可能存在更长期的结构性因素,使得家庭组建率相对于人口水平继续低于历史水平?美国是否会变得更像欧洲,许多成年子女与父母或姻亲长期同住?还是您仍然认为,低迷的家庭组建率主要是周期性现象,最终会回归历史均值,从而提振独栋住宅开工率和这一组公司的盈利?

JONATHAN BRANDTBerkshire owns many companies that benefit from single-family home construction: ACME, Johns Manville, Benjamin Moore, MiTek, and Shaw among them, not to mention the railroad. After the financial crisis, you said that young adults who are postponing household formation by living with parents or in-laws would eventually get sick of that arrangement and we would start to see normal rates of household formation once the job market improved or even if it didn't. Jobs are now more plentiful. Yet, household formation still continues to be below rates thought to be normal, whether because of high student debt, a shift in attitudes about homeownership, or stricter mortgage terms for first-time buyers. Could something more secular be going on where household formation rates, relative to the population, could continue to be lower than historical rates? Could the U.S. become more like Europe where many adult children live with their parents or in-laws for quite some time, or do you think, still, that the subdued rate of household formation is a mostly cyclical phenomenon, and that the rate will eventually revert to the historical mean, boosting single-family home starts and earnings for this group of companies?

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我显然不知道答案,但我觉得后一种可能性更大。我可能错了。你最近一次看的相关数据是什么时候?我听说过去六个月里家庭组建率回升了不少,但——你看到过什么吗,乔尼?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I don't know the answer, obviously, but I think the latter is more likely. I may be wrong. When's the last set of figures you've looked at in that connection? I've heard that it's turned up a fair amount in the last six months, but — have you seen anything on that, Jonny?

乔纳森·布兰特最近没有,确实没有。

JONATHAN BRANDTNothing really recently, no.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。我本该知道数据的,但过去六个月或九个月的,我不知道。不过我的印象是它们有所回升。我在电影里已经很卖力地把那枚戒指推销给那个小伙子了,再过一两个月他们就会组建家庭,我也被邀请了。但说实话,我不知道——你知道,家庭组建率会发生什么。我预计——虽然我之前就预计过,而且比这更早——我预计它会回升。衰退时它总是下降,你也可以说我们还没完全走出衰退。你的猜测和我的一样准。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I should know the figures, but I don't, for the last six months or nine months. But my impression was they had turned up somewhat. I did my best on selling that ring in the movie to that guy, and they're going to form a household here in another month or two to which I've been invited. But the truth is I don't know, the — you know, what's going to happen on household formation. I would expect — but I expected it earlier than this — I would expect it to turn up. It always turns down in a recession, and you could argue that we're not all the way back from the recession yet. Your guess would be as good as mine. Charlie?

查理·芒格我完全同意。但我想我能代表很多在座的股东说一句:我有些孙辈,我希望他们能赶紧找个合适的人结婚。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERI feel exactly the same way, but I think I speak for a lot of members of the audience when I say I have some grandchildren that I wish would marry somebody suitable promptly. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特你为什么这么关心,查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWhat's the reason for your interest, Charlie?

查理·芒格我觉得这些人整天晃悠着追求空中楼阁,或者鬼知道他们在干什么,这对他们没好处。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't think it's healthy for these people to hang around looking for pie in the sky or whatever in hell they're doing. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特他们今天在场吗?

WARREN BUFFETTAre they in attendance today?

查理·芒格我不知道。也许有些在。我不想点名。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't know. Some of them may be. I don't want to name names. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特不。我觉得你已经被指得够多了。

WARREN BUFFETTNo. I think you've already been pointed enough.

为什么个人慈善优于企业慈善?

Why individual over corporate philanthropy?

沃伦·巴菲特好了。5 号站。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 5.

现场股东两位先生,感谢你们带来精彩的一天。我叫马克·罗伊(音译),是奥马哈本地以马内利愿景基金会的执行董事。今天早些时候,我坐在这里,和在印度尼西亚工作生活的儿子通了话,他在那里帮助最贫困的人群,顺便说一句,这得益于盖茨基金会的资助。他今天所处的地方和我所在的地方,反差之大无以复加。您在慈善事业上一直是关心他人需求的楷模。您证明了重要的不是我们拥有多少股票,而是我们如何与他人分享。所以,接着上一位提问者,我想问:如何鼓励企业对非股东群体的生活产生更大的影响?

AUDIENCE MEMBERGentlemen, thank you for a great day. My name is Mark Roy (PH), and I am the executive director of the Immanuel Vision Foundation here in Omaha. Earlier today, I sat up in the corner and spoke to my son who is working and living in Indonesia, among the poorest of the poor, funded, incidentally, by the Gates Foundation. The contrast between where he is sitting today and where I am sitting could not be more dramatic. You have been a model of philanthropic caring for the needs of others. You have demonstrated that it's not how many shares we have but how we share with others. So following up on the last speaker, I want to ask, how can corporations be encouraged to make an even greater impact in the lives of those who are not shareholders?

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我完全同意你关于增加慈善事业的动机。不过,我更相信个人慈善,而不是企业慈善。我确实觉得我拥有了一切所需,但我也觉得自己是在为股东工作,他们应该决定自己的慈善活动,因为那是他们的钱。(掌声)现在,我们也参与——我的意思是,我鼓励我们所有公司继续它们在被收购前就进行的慈善行为,我们希望它们参与社区,帮助那些帮助员工和客户的组织。但我不认为,我有权以公司资金给我母校或别的什么地方开张支票。我只是——我不觉得那是我的钱。我把这看作一个合伙关系。我们一直把它看作合伙关系。几年前我们有一个系统,所有股东可以指定捐款,我觉得那是个相当好的系统。后来我们不得不放弃它,原因是我很不愿意放弃的,但我们不得不这么做。关于慈善的有趣之处在于——我这辈子从未捐给任何组织一分钱,那花掉了我任何东西。我的意思是,我从未放弃过一场电影、一次旅行、一个假期、一份给孩子的礼物。你知道,有些人在周日捐钱,那实际上会小幅度改变他们的生活方式,但对我来说从未发生过。我捐出的一切都是多得惊人的盈余,我很高兴我能做到。但我最敬佩的是像你儿子这样的人。查理?(掌声)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I agree, you know, entirely with your motivation about increasing philanthropy. I am much more of a believer, however, in individual philanthropy than corporate philanthropy. I really feel that I've got everything I need, but I do also feel that I'm working for the shareholders and they should determine their own philanthropic activities, that it's their money. (Applause) Now, we participate in — I mean, I encourage all our companies to continue the philanthropic behavior that they had before we've acquired them, and, you know, we want them to participate in their communities and to help the entities that help their employees and their customers. But I don't really think it's my business, ever, to write a check to my alma mater or whatever it may be, and do it on company funds. I just — I don't feel it's my money. I really look at this as a partnership. We've always looked at it as a partnership. And we had a system some years back where all the shareholders could designate contributions, and I felt that was quite a good system. And then we had to give it up for reasons that — I hated to give it up, but we had to do it. The interesting thing about philanthropy — I mean, I have never given a penny to any organization that has cost me anything in my life. I mean, I've never given up a movie, I've never given up a trip, I've never given up a vacation, I've never given up a present to my kids. You know, people give money this Sunday, you know, that really, actually, changes their lifestyle in a small way, and that hasn't happened with me. Everything I've given has been ungodly surplus, you know, and I'm glad I can do it. But it's people like your son, you know, that I really admire. Charlie? (Applause)

查理·芒格嗯,我对花别人的钱做慈善的偏好也很克制。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, my taste for giving away somebody else's money is also quite restrained. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特我曾经在一个需要筹集相当多资金的组织董事会里,它不隶属教会之类。所以他们让我去拜访四五位企业领袖,他们说:“千万别让他们个人出钱,只让他们拿公司钱就行。”我基本上说:“我不会这么做。”如果他们自己不肯出钱,凭什么代表所有股东开支票?所以我对于 CEO 或董事出于个人原因进行企业慈善,确实持保留态度。

WARREN BUFFETTI was on the board one time of an organization that needed to raise a fair amount of money, and it wasn't church affiliated or anything like that. And so they asked me to call on four or five corporate chieftains and they said, "Be sure not to ask them to give anything personally, just ask them to give corporate money." And just — I said, "I'm not going to do it," basically. If they're not — if they won't put up their own money, why should they write checks on behalf of all their shareholders? So I've got real reservations about corporate philanthropy for the personal reasons, to some extent, of the CEO, or the directors.

欧元能承受欧元区变动

Euro can survive eurozone changes

沃伦·巴菲特好了。贝基?

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Becky?

贝基·奎克这个问题来自费利佩,他问:“查理和您认为,欧元货币对欧元区经济整体上是积极还是消极的影响?如果法国退出欧元重返法郎,你们认为会是个好决定吗?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Felipe, and he asks, "Do Charlie and you think that the euro currency has had a positive or negative effect overall on the eurozone economy, and do you think it would be a good decision for France to quit the euro currency and go back to the franc?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这对我来说太容易回答了,所以还是交给查理吧。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTWell, that's too easy for me to answer, so I'll give it to Charlie. (Laughter)

查理·芒格我完全没概念。(笑声)我认为欧元有崇高的动机,有望带来很多好处,而且无疑已经带来了很多好处。但这是一个有缺陷的系统,把如此不同的国家放在一起,现在正承受压力。大的压力不在法国。

CHARLIE MUNGERI haven't got the faintest idea. (Laughter) I think the euro had a noble motivation and had promise of doing a lot of good and it undoubtedly has done a lot of good. But it's a flawed system, in some ways, to put countries that are so different together, and it's straining at the moment. The big strains aren't in France.

沃伦·巴菲特对。

WARREN BUFFETTNo.

查理·芒格大的压力在希腊、葡萄牙这些国家。而且我确实认为他们搞出了一些可能不太明智的东西。他们把本不该加入的国家拉了进来。你不能跟你那个轻浮、酗酒的妹夫合伙做生意,你知道。(笑声)我的意思是,你得跟别人合伙。我觉得他们有点降低了标准,这造成了压力。

CHARLIE MUNGERThe big strains are in Greece and Portugal and so on. And I do think they created something that was probably unwise. They got countries in there that shouldn't have been there. You can't form a business partnership with your frivolous, drunken brother-in-law, you know. (Laughter) I mean, you have to make your partnerships with somebody else. And I think they lowered their standards a little and it's caused strains.

沃伦·巴菲特我觉得——(笑)——这里说的都不算正式发言,明白吧。(笑声)他们——我仍然认为这是个好主意,但还需要大量改进。而且到目前为止,净效果是好的。但是——你知道——它有缺陷,这些缺陷正在显现,但这不意味着它不能被纠正。我的意思是,我们 1789 年制定的宪法,你知道,还是经过了几次修正案,而且有些修正案在很长一段时间内都没有触及一些非常重要的因素。所以,我不认为最初设计不完美就注定要被抛弃,但如果有缺陷,你必须面对它们。我想也许当前发生的事件会促成这一点。我们本可以——大概——我们本可以和加拿大拥有共同货币,而且很可能让它运作起来,我的意思是,如果我们决定——

WARREN BUFFETTI think — (laughs) — everything here is off the record, understand. (Laughter) They — I think it's a good idea that needs a lot of work, still. And I think it has been a good thing, net, to this point. But it — you know, it is flawed and the flaws are appearing, but that doesn't mean it can't be corrected. I mean, we wrote a Constitution in 1789 that, you know, still took a few amendments, you know, and some of them didn't happen for a long time in respect to some very important factors. So, I don't think the fact that it wasn't perfectly designed initially should condemn it to being abandoned, but I think that if there are flaws, you have to face up to them. And I think that maybe the events that are happening currently will cause that. We could have had — presumably — we could have had a common currency with Canada and probably have made it work, I mean, if we decided —

查理·芒格当然,我们可以让它运作起来。

CHARLIE MUNGERSure, we could have made it work.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我们本可以和加拿大搞一个北美货币,我们会解决好的,甚至可能有用。但我们不可能搞一个包括委内瑞拉在内的全半球货币——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We could have had a North American currency with Canada and, you know, we'd have worked it out, and it might have even been useful. But we couldn't have had a hemisphere-wide currency with Venezuela in it or —

查理·芒格包括阿根廷。

CHARLIE MUNGERWith Argentina.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。(笑声)所以——他喜欢点名批评。(笑声)表扬时说名字,批评时说类别。(笑声)而且我确实认为,一个设计得当、执行严格的欧元可能是可取的,这样规则才切实适用。最初对欧元是有规则的,但很早以前就被打破了,我记得打破规则的并非希腊人,而是德国人和法国人。所以——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Laughter) And so — he loves to name names. (Laughter) Praise by name; criticize by category. (Laughter) And I actually think it's probably desirable to have a euro currency properly designed and enforced so that — you know, that the rules really apply. There were rules, originally, on the euro, which got broken very early on, by not the Greeks, but by the Germans and the French, as I remember. So —

查理·芒格投资银行家让他们——他们帮他们准备了虚假财务报表。

CHARLIE MUNGERThe investment bankers let them — they helped them prepare phony financial statements.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格他们——实际上,那是投资银行家协助的欺诈。

CHARLIE MUNGERThey — actually, it was investment banker-aided fraud.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格算不上新奇。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERNot exactly novel. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特那么,回到我们的主要观点,我认为欧元可以而且很可能应该生存下去,而且我认为需要一些切实的改变,或许还需要一些范例来让它做到这一点。我希望它确实能——我的意思是,它很快就会走向更团结或更不团结的方向。而且我认为,如果它能找到一种方式做到更团结,那对整个欧洲来说将是一件好事。但当然,以目前的形式,它行不通。查理?我不知道为什么还要给你一次机会,但——(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTSo, returning to our main point, I think the euro can and probably should survive and I think it's going to take some real changes and maybe some examples to enable it to do so. I hope it really — I mean, it's going to go in the direction of more cohesion or less, and very soon, probably. And I think if it can figure out a way to do it with more cohesion, overall it will be a good thing for Europe. But it certainly, you know, in its present form it's not going to work. Charlie? I don't know why I'm giving you another shot, but — (Laughter)

查理·芒格我想我已经得罪了够多的人。

CHARLIE MUNGERI think I've offended enough people.

沃伦·巴菲特没错。(笑声)看台上还有两三个呢。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTRight. (Laughter) There's two or three in the balcony. (Laughter)

芒格:GEICO 的协同效应是“蠢主意”

Munger: GEICO synergies are "dumb idea"

沃伦·巴菲特好的。加里。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Gary.

加里·兰瑟姆收购 Van Tuyl 之后——也就是现在的伯克希尔·哈撒韦汽车公司——或许和 GEICO 之间会产生一些天然的协同效应,哪怕只是在销售员的桌子上放一个 GEICO 壁虎玩偶。你们会不会在这方面做些事,借助这层关系争取更多客户?

GARY RANSOMWith the Van Tuyl acquisition — or now Berkshire Hathaway Automotive — there may be some natural synergies with GEICO, if it's nothing more than just putting a gecko on the salesman's desk. Would you expect to do anything in that regard to encourage getting more customers through that relationship?

沃伦·巴菲特我看不会。投行的人总会跟你说,这些事能产生协同效应之类的。但大多数时候都不管用。况且从历史来看,通过汽车经销商销售车险的效果并不是特别好。如果我们真这么做,很可能就得向 Van Tuyl 那边做保险业务——或者说完成保险销售——的人支付报酬,这会推高成本。要知道,GEICO 走的是低成本模式,而且是一个极好的低成本模式。CEO 托尼·奈斯利(Tony Nicely)在压低成本方面做得极其出色,这一点从我们的费用率就能看出来。我们在广告上砸了不少钱,但 GEICO 的成败,取决于能不能以比别人更优惠的价格提供一流的保险;而在分销系统里每多塞进一个环节或别的什么东西,成本就会上去。所以,我非常怀疑我们会往这个方向做任何事。我认为这两家公司各自独立运营,会比我们硬要撮合什么来得更好。我和查理见过太多写在纸上看起来很美的那种方案,但最后能成的少之又少。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I don't think so. You always have these things that the investment banker will tell you will produce synergy and all that. Most times that doesn't work. And historically, selling auto insurance through dealerships hasn't been particularly effective. And if we were to do that, we would probably have to compensate people who did the insurance work — or made the insurance sales — out of Van Tuyl. That would add to costs. I mean, GEICO is a low-cost model, and it's a wonderful low-cost model. And [CEO] Tony Nicely has done an incredible job of keeping those costs down and our — and you can see it in our expense ratios. We spend a lot of money on advertising. But its success depends on delivering first-class insurance at a better price than other people can get, and the more people we put in distribution system or anything — So, I would doubt very much that we do anything along that line. I think that those two companies will do better if run as two independent businesses than if we try to push through something. We — Charlie and I have seen a lot of things on paper that involve that sort of a proposition and very, very few succeed. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我同意。这是个非常蠢的主意,我们不会这么干。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I agree. It's a very dumb idea, and we're not going to do it. (Laughter)

巴菲特不再关注白银市场

Buffett doesn't follow silver market anymore

沃伦·巴菲特好的。6 号站。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 6.

现场股东巴菲特先生,在量化宽松、低利率、股市估值过高的当下,您觉得白银在这个价位有什么价值?您还关注白银市场吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, in this environment of quantitative easing, low interest rates, and an overvalued stock market, what value in silver at these prices do you see, and do you still follow the silver market?

沃伦·巴菲特我真的不怎么关注了。不过,我们一度持有超过 1 亿盎司的白银,当时对白银的供需状况以及未来的供需前景知道得还算比较多。但我的确已经——已经很久很久没有认真留意过了。

WARREN BUFFETTI really don't follow it much anymore. But at one time, we owned over 100 million ounces of silver, and I knew a fair amount about the supply and demand for it, and the prospective supply and demand. But I really don't — I haven't paid much attention to it for a long, long time.

查理·芒格这倒是件大好事。(笑声)我们那笔做得不怎么样。

CHARLIE MUNGERThat's a very good thing too. (Laughter) We didn't do that well.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。我们赚了一点点钱。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We made a little money.

查理·芒格对。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes.

沃伦·巴菲特你知道,白银有意思的地方在于,虽然有一些纯银矿,但绝大多数白银是作为副产品产出的,比如伴随铜矿开采产出的那种。因此,白银对自身供需格局的反应,不如对铜这类主产品的供需格局反应那么强烈——当然自身供需仍是因素之一。此外,这个市场也非常小。不过我们的下场比亨特兄弟好,但除此之外,我们不再考虑白银了。

WARREN BUFFETTThe — you know, photography — the interesting thing about silver is that there are some pure silver mines, but overwhelmingly, silver is produced as a by-product, you know, in terms of copper mining and that. So it — it doesn't respond as much to its own supply and demand characteristics — that's still a factor — as it does in terms of the supply and demand characteristics of the things of which it's a by-product, like copper. So, it's a very small market, too. But we came out better than the Hunt brothers, but other than that, we don't think about silver anymore.

激进投资者会在巴菲特之后控制公司吗?

Could activists take control after Buffett?

沃伦·巴菲特好的。安德鲁。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Andrew.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金查理,问一个关于股东积极主义的问题。股东积极主义的势头越来越猛,正如查理在 2014 年股东大会上所说,他认为情况只会恶化,不会好转。问题在于,我们都希望查理和沃伦能永远在我们身边,但很不幸,总有一天他们不会再亲自管理这家公司。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINCharlie, question about activism. Activism continues to grow and, as Charlie stated at the 2014 annual meeting, he sees it getting worse instead of getting better. So the question is, we hope that Charlie and Warren will both be around forever, but, unfortunately, there will be a time when they're no longer here to manage the store.

沃伦·巴菲特我拒绝这种失败主义论调。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTI reject such defeatism. (Laughter)

安德鲁·罗斯·索金如果沃伦通过遗产安排,在十年内逐步把股票捐给慈善机构,同时激进投资者的力量又越来越强,伯克希尔在短期和长期内将如何防范激进投资者?如果伯克希尔未来被拆分,股东拿到了可观溢价,您会认为这是一种失败吗?而如果要让您认为那是成功,溢价需要达到多少?

ANDREW ROSS SORKINIf Warren is giving away his shares to charity over a ten-year period through his estate plan, and activists become increasingly more powerful, how will Berkshire defend itself from activists in the near and far future? And would you consider it a failure if Berkshire were broken up in the future and shareholders received a significant premium? And for you to consider it success, what would the premium need to be?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,如果运营得当,拆分是不会产生溢价的。也许看起来会有。我的意思是,人们会说子公司 A 可以卖到 20 倍市盈率,而整个公司可能只卖 15 倍。但如果你把那个卖 20 倍的剥离出去,整个公司就不会再卖 15 倍了。我的意思是,我在年报中阐述过——在同一个公司税表里拥有这些公司,给伯克希尔带来了很多好处。所以我认为,在长期或中期看来,各部分的价值大于整体价值的可能性不大。对抗激进投资者最好的防御就是业绩。但最近,有太多资金涌入激进投资者基金,因为为此筹钱很容易——我的意思是,过去几年这是一种成功的资金管理方式,然后机构资金开始流入,顾问们推荐它,诸如此类。所以,我要说的是,我现在看到的许多激进主义,人们实际上是在强求——就他们谈论的公司类型、他们声称能做的事情以及诸如此类而言。我认为最大的——你知道,如果你谈论的是我的股票在遗产处理完毕后的 10 年内被分配出去,以及它们拥有的投票权,我认为,当这成为现实的时候,伯克希尔的市值很可能已经非常巨大,以至于即使所有激进投资者联合起来,他们也做不了太多事。10 年或 20 年后,伯克希尔很可能是一个非常非常大的组织。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, if it's run right, there won't be a premium in breaking it up. It may look like it. I mean, people will say there's subsidiary A that would sell at 20 times earnings and the whole place would sell, like, at 15. But the whole place won't sell at 15 if you spin off the one at 20. I mean, it — I laid out in the annual report — there are a lot of benefits to Berkshire, in terms of having the companies in the same corporate tax return. So I think it's unlikely that, on any long-term basis or intermediate-term basis, that the value of the parts will be greater than the value of the whole. The best defense against activism is performance. But lately, there's been so much money pouring into activist funds, because it's been easy to raise money for that — I mean, it's been a successful way of handling money for the last few years, and institutional money then starts flowing into it, and the consultants recommend it, and all of that sort of thing. And so, I would say that much of what I see as activism now, people are really reaching, in terms of what they're — of the kind of companies that they're talking about and the claims of what they can do and that sort of thing. I think the biggest — you know, if you're talking about my shares getting dispensed over 10 years after my estate is settled, and the voting power they have, and I think, by the time that gets to be a reality, I think the market value of Berkshire is likely to be so great that even if all the activists gathered together, they wouldn't be able to do very much about it. Berkshire is likely to really be a very, very large organization 10 or 20 years from now.

查理·芒格何况,巴菲特那份超级投票权还将持续很长一段时间。

CHARLIE MUNGERBesides, the Buffett super-voting power is going to last a long time.

沃伦·巴菲特持续很长一段时间,没错。我经常——我有一些其他公司的朋友打电话给我,说他们碰上了激进投资者,很发愁。我就告诉他们,把那些人引到伯克希尔来好了。我们欢迎他们。我们非常乐意他们买入我们的股票,因为他们什么都做不成。而且这一局面还将延续很长、很长时间。我们这里应该成为大家可以甩掉激进投资者的地方。(笑声)查理?

WARREN BUFFETTLast a long time, yeah. I always — I've got these friends that call me — other companies and they've got an activist, and they're worried about it. I just tell them to send them over to Berkshire. We'll welcome them. We'd love to have them buy our stock because they're not going to get anyplace. And that's going to be the situation for a long, long time. We should be a place where people can dump their activists. (Laughter) Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我觉得有意思的是,在以前,当许多——大多数——股票的市价远低于内在价值时,却极少见到有美国公司出手买入自家股票。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, the thing that I find interesting is, in the old days when many — most — stocks sold for way less than they were worth, in terms of intrinsic value, it was very rare to find an American corporation buying the stock in.

沃伦·巴菲特哦,没错。

WARREN BUFFETTOh, yeah.

查理·芒格而如今,在很多情况下,激进投资者却在敦促公司大举买入自家股票,即便股价已经高于内在价值。这不是一种有建设性的行为,也不是一种值得乐见的变化,而且激进投资者这种做法是相当不负责任的。

CHARLIE MUNGERNow, in many cases, the activists are urging corporations to buy the stock in heavily, even though it's selling for more than it's worth. This is not a constructive activity, and it's not a desirable change, and it's not a very responsible activity for the activists.

沃伦·巴菲特股票回购这么简单的事,却有太多蠢话被写出来,也有太多蠢事被做出来。我的意思是,在我看来,是否回购股票是一个非常简单的决定。如果你的业务需求得到满足,而你的股票售价低于其内在价值,那你就回购。这——我看不出还有什么比这更简单的了。如果你有一个合伙生意,合伙人想以生意价值 120% 的价格卖给你,你会说免了。如果他想以生意价值 80% 的价格卖给你,你会接受。这不复杂。但人们在决定是否回购股票时,脑子里塞进了太多其他的动机。很多情况下,这已经变成了一种扭曲又有点愚蠢的讨论。查理说得对。如果你回顾股票回购的历史,你会发现,当股票便宜的时候,回购量会疯狂下降;而当股票价格充分体现价值的时候,回购量往往会大幅上升。但这不是伯克希尔的做法。在伯克希尔,我们现在会——我们很乐意以 120% 的账面价值一篮子一篮子地买进,因为我们知道它值更多。我们不知道具体多少,但我们知道它值很多。我们很少有机会这样做。但如果真有机会,我们会大举出手。但我们不会以 200% 的账面价值买进,因为这不值。你知道,这不是一个复杂的问题,但有些人——我见过很多管理层,他们宣布要回购 X 金额的股票,然后不管价格如何就买。很多时候,价格还算合理。但如果价格不合理,他们似乎也不会停下,而且似乎也没人想拦着他们。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTThere's been more stupid stuff written on such a simple activity as stock repurchase. Both stupid stuff written and stupid stuff done. I mean, it's a very simple decision, in my view, as to whether you repurchase your shares. You know, you repurchase them if you're taking care of the needs of the business and your stock is selling for less than it's intrinsically worth. That — I don't see how anything could be more simple. If you had a partnership and the partner wanted to sell out to you at 120 percent of what the business is worth, you'd say forget it. And if he'd want to sell out to you for 80 percent of what it's worth, you'd take it. It's not complicated. But there's so many other motivations that entered into people's minds about deciding whether to repurchase shares or not. It's gotten to be a very contorted and kind of silly discussion in many cases. And Charlie is right. The — if you look at the history of share repurchases, you know, it falls off like crazy when stocks are cheap and it tends to goes up dramatically when stocks get fully priced. But it's not what we'll do at Berkshire. At Berkshire, you know, we will presently — you know, we would love to buy it by the bushel basket at 120 percent of book, because we know it's worth a lot more than that. We don't know how much more, but we know it's worth a lot more. And we don't get a chance to do that very often. But if we do get a chance, we'll do it, big time. But we won't buy it in at 200 percent of book, because it isn't worth it. You know, it's not a complicated question, but people that — I've been around a lot of managements that announce they're going to buy X worth and then they buy it regardless of price. And a lot of times the price makes sense. But if it doesn't, they don't seem to stop, and nobody tries to — seems to want to stop them. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我完全赞同。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I certainly agree with you.

沃伦·巴菲特好。

WARREN BUFFETTOK.

查理·芒格我不认为这是一个好时代,这个股东积极主义盛行的时代。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't think it's a great age, this age of activism.

沃伦·巴菲特想再展开说说吗?(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTWant to expand on that? (Laughter)

查理·芒格嗯,我——我很难想到有哪个激进投资者是我愿意招进家门当女婿的。(掌声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I — it's hard for me to think of any activists I want to marry into the family. (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特我最好还是赶紧打住,免得他待会儿真报出名字来。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTI better stop before he names names. (Laughter)

美国运通与信用卡历史

American Express & credit card history

沃伦·巴菲特好,有请格雷格。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Gregg.

格雷格·沃伦沃伦,美国运通是伯克希尔的第三大重仓股,多年来一直凭借强大的网络效应和宝贵的品牌价值来创造经济利润。它建立了一个良性循环:凭借庞大的持卡人群体吸引商户,商户愿意支付更高的交易手续费,而这些手续费最终又用来为美国运通的持卡人提供奖励计划和服务。不过,近来竞争对手已经反过来利用这种模式向美国运通发起攻击:它们以不断提高的奖励水平和服务来争夺美国运通的持卡人群体,同时向商户收取比美国运通更低的手续费。今年早些时候,随着好市多(Costco)结束了与美国运通长达 16 年的合作关系,其高端独享的品牌形象也受到了一定冲击——这一决定影响到市面上十分之一的美国运通卡,并将波及今明两年的业绩。考虑到刷卡手续费(interchange fees)受限、移动支付技术的增长与普及可能影响未来的收入来源,以及公司为追求交易量而下沉市场从而可能削弱品牌价值,美国运通该如何捍卫自己的护城河?

GREGG WARRENWarren, American Express, which is Berkshire's third largest stock holding, has relied on powerful network effects and its valuable brand to generate economic profits over the years. It has created a virtual cycle with its collection of cardholders being desirable to merchants, who have been willing to pay higher transaction fees with those fees ending up funding rewards programs and services for American Express's cardholders. More recently, though, competitors have turned this model against the firm, targeting its cardholder base with ever-increasing levels of rewards and services, while charging merchants lower fees than American Express does. The company also saw its image of exclusivity take a bit of a hit earlier this year when Costco ended a 16-year relationship with the firm, a move that affects one in 10 American Express cards in circulation and which will impact results this year and next. With restrictions on interchange fees and the growth and acceptance of mobile payment technologies likely to impact future revenue streams, and moves by the firm to go down-market in pursuit of transaction volume potentially diminishing the brand, how does American Express defend its moat?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,美国运通在这方面一直做得相当不错,尤其是在肯·谢诺掌舵期间。它——你知道,支付领域的方方面面都会面临大量创新和各种形式的攻击。我认为美国运通仍然是一家非常特殊的公司。就像我说的,肯在预判许多这类趋势并引导公司进入不同市场方面,做得极其出色。正如你提到的,它实际上正在进入借记卡等领域。我认为美国运通的持卡人有着很强的忠诚度。我确实认为自有品牌卡比联名卡更有价值,但我想——我可能不该深入谈好市多的具体情况。我身边就坐着一位好市多的董事。不过,我们对美国运通非常满意,但如果它的股价下跌,那么他们每年花在回购上的那 40 亿到 50 亿美元就能买回更多股份,我们会更满意。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, American Express has been pretty good at that, and particularly when Ken Chenault's been running it. The — it will be — you know, it — all aspects of payments will be subject to lots of innovation and various modes of attack. I think that American Express is still a very special company. And like I say, Ken has done a sensational job in anticipating a lot of these trends and guiding it into different markets. As you mentioned, it's going down in the — into debit cards, effectively, and things of that sort. I think there's a lot of loyalty with American Express cardholders. I do think a proprietary card is worth more than a co-branded card, but I think that — I probably shouldn't get into the specifics of Costco. I've got a Costco director sitting next to me. But we're very happy with American Express, but we'd be even happier if the stock goes down and the 4 or 5 billion they spend a year buying in stock buys even more shares. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,他们竞争稍微没这么激烈的时候,我倒是更喜欢一点,但这就是生活。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I like it a little better when they had a little less competition, but that's life. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特顺便提一句,你们会发现,在伯克希尔这 50 年的历史中,美国运通在 20 世纪 60 年代为我们创造了奇迹。里面有一段小历史:在 1965 年之前它一直是一只可估值股票,只不过直到 1963 年后才有人注意到这一点。但这家公司在适应变化方面有着令人难以置信的历史。我的意思是,他们最初是一家快递公司,运送箱子和贵重物品。后来铁路出现了,也开始做同样的事情,所以他们转而推出旅行支票,作为一种非常便捷的、在世界各地转移资金的方式。然后信用卡出现了,大来卡在 20 世纪 50 年代诞生,这威胁到了旅行支票,于是他们又进入了当时所谓的“旅行与娱乐”卡领域。有意思的是,大来卡是先行者——拉尔夫·施耐德和阿尔·布卢明代尔,我记得他们把卡定价为 3 美元,看起来他们似乎要垄断市场了。然后美国运通出现了,做了一件非常有趣的事。他们把卡定价为,我记得是 5 美元,实际上树立了更好的形象。我的意思是,那些在餐桌上掏出美国运通卡的人,看起来就像 J.P. 摩根。而掏出大来卡的人,卡上印着各种花里胡哨的东西,看起来就像是在虚报开支账目之类的人。所以,当你掏出美国运通卡时,你会自然而然地觉得自己是个更重要的人物。他们一直非常灵活,非常聪明,尤其是在近年来在肯的领导下,在应对各种挑战方面。我认为他们在未来还会面临大量挑战,我很高兴我们拥有这家公司 15% 的股份。

WARREN BUFFETTIncidentally, you'll find in this 50-year history of Berkshire, you know, American Express did wonders for us back in the 1960s. And there's a little history in there on the fact that it was an assessable stock until 1965, which nobody paid any attention to until 1963 on. But the company has an incredible history of adapting. I mean, they started out as an express company, you know, move trunks around, and valuables around. And then the railroad came around and started doing the same thing, so they went to traveler's checks as a way to — very handy way — of moving money around the world. And then the credit card came along, Diners Club came along, in the 1950s, and that threatened the traveler's check and then they moved into the Travel and Entertainment card, as it was called then. And the interesting thing is that Diners Club, who was first — Ralph Schneider and Al Bloomingdale priced their card at, as I remember, $3, and they looked like they were sewing up the market. And American Express came along and did something very interesting. They priced their card, I think, at $5, and actually established a better image. I mean, people that pulled out their American Express card at a dinner table, they looked like J.P. Morgan. And the guy that pulled out a Diners Club card, they'd have a whole bunch of flashy things on it, he looked like a guy who was kiting his expense account or something of the sort. So you just automatically felt like a more important person with your American Express card. They have been very nimble, and very smart, and particularly in recent years, under Ken, in terms of meeting all kinds of challenges. And I think they'll have plenty of challenges in the future, and I'm delighted we own 15 percent of the company.

为什么孩子需要良好的财务习惯

Why children need good financial habits

沃伦·巴菲特好,7 号站。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 7.

现场股东大家好。我叫 Chang,原籍韩国首尔,目前在加利福尼亚州洛杉矶工作。我已经去超过 27 个国家旅行,去年在(听不清)城市的一所当地小学教过一节金融知识课。今天我们在这里谈论的是资本市场的投资,但发展中国家的年轻学生不知道如何存钱,也不知道利息的概念。因此,为了克服这些教育上的挑战,我想提供志愿者机会,让有才华的美国人在旅行期间到南美洲的学校去教书,以克服这些——你们觉得我的计划怎么样?或者有什么建议吗?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi. My name is Chang, originally from Seoul, South Korea, and working in Los Angeles, California. I've been traveling more than 27 countries, and last year I taught financial literacy lesson in one of the local elementary school in (inaudible) city. Today here, we're talking about investments in capital markets, but young students in developing countries, they don't know how to save money, or they don't know the concept of interest. So, in order to overcome the educational challenges, I would like to provide volunteer opportunities to talented Americans to teach in South American schools to overcome the — while they are traveling. So, what do you think about my plan or do you have any advice? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特查理,你有什么建议吗?

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie, do you have any advice?

查理·芒格嗯,我在和我的一些亲戚打交道时没做成这件事,所以我觉得我帮不了南美洲。(笑声)不,我想如果你——如果你不知道怎么存钱,那我也帮不了你。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I failed in this activity with some of my relatives, so I don't think I can improve South America. (Laughter) No, I think if you don't — if you don't know how to save, I can't help you. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特不,重要的是尽早养成好习惯。

WARREN BUFFETTNo, but the important thing is to get good habits early on.

查理·芒格对。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.

沃伦·巴菲特你确实——你知道有人说过,习惯的枷锁轻得让人感觉不到,直到它重得无法打破。习惯真的会对你的人生产生巨大的影响。所以安迪·海沃德和艾米·海沃德开发了“秘密百万富翁俱乐部”,我帮过一点忙,我们的目标是,通过一种喜剧系列的形式,以寓教于乐的方式把好习惯呈现给小孩子。我觉得这——它确实正在产生相当好的效果。再过几天,我们将在这里——在奥马哈——迎来来自全国各地的八名决赛小选手,他们都创办了自己的小生意,我对这些孩子总是印象极为深刻。但是,自己养成好习惯,或者在你孩子很小的时候就鼓励他们养成与金钱相关的好习惯,这可以改变他们的人生。而且,你知道的,我大学毕业时就已额外攒下九千到一万美元,之后我很早就结婚,也很快有了孩子。如果我没有那个起点,我的人生将会大不相同。所以,关于培养良好的金钱习惯,再怎么早开始都不为过。我确实认为“秘密百万富翁俱乐部”非常好,但教这些功课可能也还有很多其他好方法。

WARREN BUFFETTYou really — you know someone said the chains of habit are too light to be felt until they're too heavy to be broken. And habits really make an enormous difference in your life. So Andy and Amy Heyward have developed the "Secret Millionaires Club," which I've helped out with a little, and our goal is to, in an entertaining way, present good habits to young kids through a kind of a comedy series. And I think that's — it's actually having a pretty good effect. And here in a few days, we're going to have a — here in Omaha — we're going to have eight finalists in young kids from around the country that have developed businesses of their own, and I'm always enormously impressed with these kids. But the importance of developing good habits yourself, or encouraging good habits in your children very early on, in respect to money, can change their lives. And, you know, I was 9 or $10,000 ahead when I got out of college, and I got married young and had kids very fast. And if I hadn't had that start, my life would have been vastly different. So it — you can't start young enough on working on good money habits. And I do think the "Secret Millionaires Club" is very good, but there could be lots of other good ways of teaching those lessons.

无意改变债务水平

No plans to change debt level

沃伦·巴菲特好。我们现在只回答现场观众的提问了,所以请 8 号站提问。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. We now have moved solely to the audience, so we'll go to station 8.

现场股东大家好,沃伦,查理。我叫斯蒂法诺·格拉索,来自意大利热那亚。很高兴今天能来这里参加 50 周年庆典。去年,我问过你们伯克希尔·哈撒韦的杠杆水平应该是多少,以及为什么不增加杠杆。我当时认为,在廉价水平上增加负债,借助现任管理层的投资能力,会让伯克希尔受益。今年,我想听听你们对资产负债表另一面操作的可能性的看法,即用闲置在银行账户上的一部分现金来减少目前资产负债表上的部分负债。例如,伯克希尔在 2004 年至 2008 年间卖出的指数看跌期权,产生了近 50 亿美元的保费。几年下来,伯克希尔从浮存金中受益。现在指数上涨了,看跌期权的到期时间也缩短了。问题是,如果对手方愿意接受这些看跌期权的平仓,你们会考虑以一个合理的价格平仓吗?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHello, Warren, Charlie. My name is Stefano Grasso (PH), and I come from Genova, Italy. It's great to be here today for the 50th anniversary. Last year, I asked you what was the right level for leverage at Berkshire Hathaway, and why not to increase it. I argued that increasing liability more at the cheap level would benefit Berkshire, thanks to the investment capabilities of the present management. This year, I would like to get your view on the possibility of working on the other side of the balance sheet and using part of the cash sitting on bank chair — bank accounts — to reduce some of the liabilities currently on its balance sheet. For example, the index puts at Berkshire sold between 2004 and 2008, generated a premium of almost 5 billion. Few years down the line, Berkshire benefited from the float. The indexes are higher and the time to maturity of the put got shorter. The question is, if the unwinding of the puts were acceptable by the counterparts which bought them, would you consider unwinding them at a reasonable price? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特你说的是——你具体指的是我们拥有的那批股票看跌期权吗?

WARREN BUFFETTAre you speaking — you're speaking specifically of the equity put options we have?

现场股东我指的是它们,但只是作为一个例子。我也在谈可能减少债务或做其他——

AUDIENCE MEMBERI'm speaking about them, but as just an example. I'm talking also of maybe reducing debts or doing other —

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我们当然希望的是,把所谓超额现金——也就是超过 200 亿美元的那部分现金——用来收购一家企业。但这事你没法一周做一单,也没法一个月做一单。这得看机会。我不知道会带来下一笔交易的那通电话是下周打来,还是一年之后才来。我们总会接到电话,也总会把钱投出去。你知道,我们就是做不到均匀地投钱。而且我们几乎没有任何债务。如果有人 50 年前告诉我俩,说我们能以 1% 左右的利率借到长期欧元贷款之类的东西,我们当时肯定会觉得,我们最终的资产负债表会跟今天的大不一样。但问题是,现在钱太便宜了,便宜到让人们在资产端几乎什么事都干得出来。我们尽力避免这样做,因为我们不想只是因为负债端成本这么低,就太快降低自己的标准。但我不认为——显然,如果我们能在数学上自认为能大赚一笔的基础上平掉一笔衍生品交易,我们会去做。不过,对于我们目前持有的合约,我认为发生这种情况的可能性极小。所以这些合约很可能——我认为它们极有可能就只是随时间自然到期。我们有一笔负债,其账面金额远超——我记得大概在 35 亿到 40 亿美元之间——而它所对应的东西,今天的结算价值只有 4 亿美元。所以对我们来说,很难——在合约的另一方,我们很难找到一个双方都满意的价格。我们不会给伯克希尔去杠杆。它本来也没多少杠杆可言。我的意思是,浮存金确实,实质上,非常接近于永续资金。它一年可能减少一两个百分点,但也可能增加几个百分点。所以,在我能看到的未来里,浮存金不会带来任何实质性的资金流出,而我们未偿还的债务也极少。所以我并不想把现有债务还清。按理说,以现在的利率,我们或许应该多借些钱,但那不太合我们的心意。也许要是我们碰到一笔特别大的交易,会多借一点。我至少希望脑子里能有这么个选项。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, what we hope, of course, is that what we call the excess cash, which is cash beyond 20 billion that we can put to work buying a business. But you can't do, you know, one a week or one a month. So it's opportunistic. And I don't know whether the phone call that's going to result in the next deal will come in next week or it may come in a year from now. We will get calls and we will put money to work. You know, we just — we can't do it at an even flow. And we have, you know, virtually no debt. If someone had told the two of us 50 years ago that we'd be able to borrow money in euros with a long duration of 1 percent or something like that, we would have felt we would have ended up with a way different balance sheet than we have today. But, I mean, money is so cheap that it causes people to do almost anything on the asset side, and we try to avoid doing that because we don't, you know, we don't want to drop our standards too fast just because the liability side is costing us so little. But I don't think — obviously, if we can unwind a derivative trade on a basis where we thought we were mathematically ahead by a significant amount, we would do it. But I think that's very unlikely with the contracts we have now, so we'll probably — I think it's very likely they just run out over time. We carry a liability of well over — I think it's getting somewhere between 3 1/2 and 4 billion — for something that has a settlement value today of 400 million. So it's very hard for us to — it's very hard for us on the other side of the contract to arrive at a price that we both would be happy with. We're not going to deleverage Berkshire. There isn't that much leverage to start with. I mean, the float really is, essentially, very close to permanent. I mean, it can decline a couple percent in a year, but it can also increase a few percent. So, I see no drain on funds of any consequence from the float for as far as the eye can see, and we have very little debt out. So I would not want to pay down the debt we have now. Logically, we probably should take on more debt at these prices, but that's just not something that appeals to us. Maybe if we find a really big deal, we might take on a little more. I would like to at least have that as something I was thinking about. Charlie?

查理·芒格我们巴不得能碰到一个让我们真觉得资本有点紧绷的机会。我们已经很久没有过资本紧绷的感觉了。这是我们求之不得的一个问题——一笔如此有吸引力的生意,以至于我们——

CHARLIE MUNGERWe'd love to have something come along where we actually felt a little capital constrained. We haven't felt capital constrained for a long time. It's a problem we'd love to have, something so attractive that we —

沃伦·巴菲特我们会愿意稍微绷紧一些。

WARREN BUFFETTWe'd stretch a little.

查理·芒格我们会愿意稍微绷紧一些。那才叫美妙。而且,顺便说一句,这种事真有可能发生。

CHARLIE MUNGERWe'd stretch a little. That would be glorious. And it could happen, by the way.

沃伦·巴菲特是有可能发生。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd it could happen.

汽车经销商不存在规模经济

No economies of scale for auto dealers

沃伦·巴菲特好,9 号台。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 9.

现场股东嗨,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我叫乔治,在为我父亲(听不清)翻译,他从中国上海来。去年是我父亲站在这里提问,今年轮到我了。我觉得非常幸运。我知道去年年底,您收购了一家汽车经销商。今年您在致股东信里说还会继续收购。投资的最终目的是为了获得回报。所以我的问题是,随着经销商规模的扩大,回报率必然会提高吗?如果是这样,为什么我们在中国看不到这种情况?美国和中国的经销业务性质相同,为何会有这些差异?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is George. I'm translating for my father, (inaudible), from Shanghai, China. Last year it was my father standing here asking his question, and this year it's me. I feel so lucky. I know at the end of last year, you purchased a car sales dealer. This year, you said in your public letter that you are going to continue to buy. The ultimate purpose of investment is to seek the return. So my question is, whether the rate of return can be necessarily higher with the scale of the dealers? If so, why we cannot see that happen in China? How come the differences with the dealership business of the same nature in the United States and China? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我不了解中国的经销商情况。我想说——我早些时候可能提到过——我认为随着我们在汽车领域收购更多门店,不太可能获得显著的规模效益。我完全看不出规模效益从何而来。但我们也不需要。我们需要的是那些在单个门店里自己投入了身家、能将其作为一流企业独立经营的经理人。那才是我们要找的。我们不会去追求规模。我不了解中国的情况。也许查理知道得更多。我想他确实知道。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I don't know the dealership situation in China. I would say — I think I mentioned this a little earlier — that I don't think we're going to get significant benefits of scale as we buy more units in the auto field. I just don't see where it would come from. But we don't need it. What we really need is managers in those individual dealerships that have skin in the game of their own, and that run them, you know, as first-class businesses, independently. And that's what we'll be looking for. We'll not be looking for scale. I don't know the situation in China. Maybe Charlie knows more about that. I think he does.

查理·芒格不知道。但我觉得我们不擅长在中国经营经销商。而我认为,经营 Van Tuyl 的人非常擅长在这里经营经销商,所以——

CHARLIE MUNGERNo. But I don't think we'd be very good at running dealerships in China. And I think the people who run Van Tuyl are very good at running the ones here, so —

沃伦·巴菲特是的。这里有 17000 家经销商,我们占了 81 家,所以还有一点扩张空间。问题在于价格。我们的收购或许让那些拥有经销商的人把估值倍数抬高了一两倍——我们为 Van Tuyl 付了一个充分但公平的价格,今后也会大致以这个价格作为参照标尺。而我们确实认为我们买到了其中最好的那家,所以真要再买的话,我们希望能以稍低一点的价格收购其他家。所以我们不会——我们可能买很多,也可能只买很少几家,完全取决于价格走势。今年是个汽车大年,经销行业的利润都很好。但利润好的时候,我们更想付出较低的倍数。我的意思是,如果我们要永远做汽车生意,就总会经历好年景和坏年景。我们宁愿在坏年景以 10 到 12 倍的市盈率买入,也不愿意在好年景以 8 倍的市盈率买入。不过卖家不一定会这么想,他们虽然可能理解这个道理,但不愿意这么想。所以我们走着瞧吧。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah with 17,000 here and we've got 81 of them, there's a little room to expand. The problem is going to be price. Our purchase probably caused people to move up their multiples by one or two — people that have them — and we paid a full, but fair, price for Van Tuyl and we'll be using that price, more or less, as a yardstick. And we really thought we bought the best there, so, if anything, we would be hoping to buy others, maybe for a bit less. So we will not — we may buy a lot of them, we may buy very few, just depending on price developments. The — we're having a big car year and profits are good in the dealership field. But when profits are good, we want to pay a lower multiple. I mean, because, if we're going to be in the car business forever, we're going to have some good years and we're going to have some bad years. And we would rather buy at a 10 or 12 times multiple of a bad year than buy at an eight times multiple of a good year. And that's not necessarily the way that sellers think, although they probably understand it, but they don't want to think that way. So we'll see what happens.

巴菲特认为互联网比私人飞机更有价值

Buffett values internet more than private jet

沃伦·巴菲特好,10 号台。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 10.

现场股东您好。巴菲特先生和芒格先生,非常激动能来到这里。我是(听不清),也来自中国上海。因为我现在(听不清)一家为中国高净值个人提供财富管理的公司。公司名叫诺思,来自诺思方舟(音),在(听不清)上市。二位是我的偶像。你们能保持如此年轻、精力充沛、思维敏捷,秘诀是什么?请别说是可口可乐。(笑声)有人说老家伙不懂互联网,但我不信。你们怎么看?你们会更关注互联网吗?能否请两位先生都回答我的问题?非常感谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi. Mr. Buffett and Munger, very excited to be here. My name is (inaudible), also from Shanghai, China. Because now (inaudible) a company providing wealth management to the high-net wealth individuals in China. The company name is North, from North Ark (PH), listed at (inaudible). You two are my idols. What's your secrets of keeping so young, so energetic, and so quick? Please don't say because of Coca-Cola. (Laughter) And as someone says that old papa could not understand the internet, but I don't believe that. What's your opinion? Will you pay more attention to internet? Could I invite both two gentlemen to answer my question? Thank you very much.

沃伦·巴菲特查理,我没全听明白,所以你——

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie, I didn't get all that, so you —

查理·芒格嗯,他问我们会不会使用互联网。跟我相比,沃伦可是个互联网重度用户。而且——但是——

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, he asked are we going to be using the internet. Warren is a big internet user compared to me. And — but —

沃伦·巴菲特我很喜欢。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTI love it. (Laughs)

查理·芒格他在上面打桥牌。

CHARLIE MUNGERHe plays bridge on it.

沃伦·巴菲特我用很多——我用搜索。这给我的生活带来了巨大的改变,一年也就花我 100 美元左右。如果非要在飞机和互联网之间放弃一个:飞机一年花我 150 万美元,互联网一年只花我 100 美元。你知道,我哪个都不想放弃,但真要选,我会放弃飞机。

WARREN BUFFETTI use a lot of — I use search. It's been a huge change in my life, and it costs me a hundred dollars a year, or something like that. If I had to give up the plane or I had to give up the internet: the plane costs me a million-and-a-half a year, the internet costs me a hundred dollars a year. You know, I wouldn't want to give up either one of them, but I'd give up the plane.

查理·芒格有意思。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERInteresting. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特查理两样都放弃了。

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie's given up both.

查理·芒格我们以后会不会做得更多——我认为每个人以后都会在互联网上做更多的事。它的重要性在持续增长。所以,不管喜不喜欢,我们都被拽进了现代现实里。

CHARLIE MUNGERAre we going to be doing more — I think everybody's going to be doing more things on the internet. It is growing in importance. And so like it or not, we're dragged into modern reality.

沃伦·巴菲特听起来他好像不喜欢,是吧?(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTDoesn't sound like he likes it, does it? (Laughs)

查理·芒格对,我不喜欢。我不喜欢多任务并行。看到有人同时干三件事,我心想,天哪,这种思考方式真是糟透了。不过我也确实很笨,一件事得花很长时间苦苦思索才能搞明白。靠同时做几件事走向辉煌这种想法,我压根就没想过。(笑声)但不管怎么说,互联网已经在这里了,而且会变得越来越重要,每个人都会更多地思考它、用它做更多的事,不管喜不喜欢。当然,年轻人用起来比我们得心应手得多。但伯克希尔这边——你们现在有多少台彭博终端来着?

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, I don't like it. I don't like multitasking. I see these people doing three things at once, and I think, God, what a terrible way that is to think. I am so stupid, though, I have to think hard about a thing for a long time. And the idea of multitasking my way to glory has never occurred to me. (Laughter) But at any rate, the internet is here and it's going to be more and more important and everybody's going to think more about it and do more about it, like it or not. And, of course, the younger people are way more prone to use it than we are. But Berkshire — you have what, how many Bloombergs now?

沃伦·巴菲特在办公室吗?

WARREN BUFFETTIn the office?

查理·芒格对。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.

沃伦·巴菲特有两台还是三台。马克?我不清楚。他们没告诉我。我走进房间的时候他们好像都会把机器藏起来。

WARREN BUFFETTDo we have two or three. Mark? I don't know. They don't tell me about them. They sort of hide them when I come in the room.

查理·芒格我们毕竟进入了现代世界。

CHARLIE MUNGERWe're into the modern world.

沃伦·巴菲特我们有——[首席财务官] 马克·汉伯格告诉我,我们有三台——但我回办公室后会重新评估这件事。(笑声)怎么了?哦,有一台我们不用付钱。这个我喜欢。(笑声)看看能不能两台都不用付钱。(笑声)不,互联网——它已经改变了我们很多生意。我是说,它极其显著地改变了 GEICO 的业务。而且它在影响——它不同程度地影响着我们所有的生意。这让我觉得很不可思议。我是说,人们总会对美国感到悲观。就想一想过去这 20 到 25 年——好吧,仅仅互联网发展的这 20 年——它给你的生活带来了多么翻天覆地的变化。要知道,这盘棋还没下完。未来还会有各种各样的东西出现,让生活变得更好。查理可能不觉得互联网让生活变好了,但每当我对比过去在下雪天得费劲凑齐三个朋友来我家打桥牌,和现在只需打开设备,10 到 20 秒之内就能连上我在旧金山的搭档和另外两个朋友,我觉得这世界确实是进步了。

WARREN BUFFETTWe have — [CFO] Marc Hamburg tells me we have three — but we'll reevaluate that situation when I get back to the office. (Laughter) What's that? Oh, we're not paying for one. I like that. (Laughter) Let's see if we can not pay for two. (Laughter) No, the internet — and it's changed many of our businesses. I mean, it's changed GEICO's business very, very dramatically. And it's affecting — it affects them all, to one degree or another. It's amazing to me — I mean, people get pessimistic about America. Just think in the last 20 or 25 years—well, just 20 years on the internet—how dramatically it's changed your life. You know, the game is not over yet. There's all kinds of things that are going to happen to make life better. And Charlie may not think the internet makes life better, but when I compare trying to round up three other guys on a snowy day to come over to my house to play bridge, versus snapping the thing on and having my partner in San Francisco there and two other friends, and so on, in 10 or 20 seconds, I think the world has improved.

查理·芒格嗯,我要是也有你那个老搭档,我也会觉得世界进步了。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, if I had your partner, I'd think it had improved, too. (Laughter)

提高劳动所得税收抵免,而非提高最低工资

Raise earned income tax credit instead of minimum wage

沃伦·巴菲特好。11 号站台。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 11.

现场股东嗨,我是惠特尼·蒂尔森,来自纽约的股东。巴菲特先生,我知道许多股东感到恼火——说得客气点——当您就税收政策等社会议题发表看法,或者为某个候选人背书和筹款时,但就我而言,我为之喝彩。我认为每个人都有责任,尤其是那些已经拥有财富和声望、因而确实有能力推动变革的人,要努力让世界变得更美好,不仅通过慈善捐赠,还要通过政治参与,哪怕是那些政治观点与我相反的人,我也会这么说。我的问题涉及当今的重大议题之一:收入不平等加剧,与此相关的是提高最低工资的运动,这项运动近期在美国一些最大的企业(如沃尔玛和麦当劳)取得了成功。您对收入不平等有多担忧?您认为提高最低工资是个好主意吗?您认为这些努力可能会显著影响美国企业的盈利能力吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi. I'm Whitney Tillson, a shareholder from New York. Mr. Buffett, I know many shareholders have felt irritation, to put it mildly, when you've weighed in on social issues such as tax policy, or endorsed and raised money for a particular candidate, but I, for one, applaud it. I think everyone, but especially people who've achieved wealth and prominence and thus have real ability to effect change, have a duty to try and make the world a better place, not just through charitable donations, but also through political engagement, and I'd say that even to people whose political views are contrary to my own. My question relates to one of the big issues today: rising income inequality, and related to that, the campaign to raise the minimum wage, which has had some recent successes with some of the largest businesses in the country like Walmart and McDonald's. How concerned are you about income inequality? Do you think raising the minimum wage is a good idea? And do you think these efforts might meaningfully affect the profitability of corporate America?

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我认为收入不平等确实是个大问题——在美国,看到我们走了多远,着实令人震惊。就拿我自己的情况来说吧。自 1930 年我出生以来,美国人均 GDP 增长了六倍。而我父母当时认为他们生活在还算不错的经济环境中,结果他们的儿子活到了人均水平是当时六倍的时代。如果当时你问他们,并且他们知道这个事实——人均 GDP 会从按今天计算的 8000 或 9000 美元涨到 54000 美元——他们会说:“那好啊,所有美国人都会过上极好的生活。”显然,事实并非如此。所以,我认为这是一个极其重要的因素。造成这种情况的原因有上百万个,我不敢说自己知道所有答案,尤其是在寻找解决方案方面。但我确实认为,在像美国这样的国家,每个愿意工作的人都应该过上相当体面的生活——(掌声)——至于如何最好地实现这一点——我实际上很快就会写点东西。我不反对提高最低工资,但将其提高到足以显著改变现状的水平,我认为会失去大量工作岗位。我是说,世界上存在供需曲线这种东西。如果你大幅提高最低工资,我认为你——这是一种价格管制。我认为你会极大地改变人们可获得的就业机会。所以我更相信改革和扩大劳动所得税抵免,这既奖励工作的人,也照顾那些技能不适应市场体系的人。所以我认为你指出了一个非常大的问题。我并不——我不反对提高最低工资,但我认为你不能在不造成大量扭曲的前提下,把它提高到足够显著的程度。而我认为劳动所得税抵免很有道理,而且我认为它可以改进。它存在很多欺诈。它一次性支付一大笔钱,所以你会碰上那些发薪日贷款之类的东西——我的意思是,有很多地方可以改进。但我认为解决问题的出路更多在于这项特定政策,而非最低工资。而且,就像我说的,我想我很快就会写点东西。如果还有谁我没惹生气,你知道的,下一篇里我会解决。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I think income inequality is — I think it's extraordinary, in the United States, to see how far we've gone. Well, just go back to my own case. Since I was born in 1930, the average GDP per capita in the United States has gone up six for one. Now, my parents thought they were living in a reasonably decent economy in 1930, and here their son has lived to where the average is six times what it was then. And if you'd asked them at that time, and they'd known that fact, that it would go from 8 or $9,000 in today's terms to $54,000, they would have said, "Well, everybody in America is going to be enjoying a terrific life," and clearly they're not. So, I think it is a huge factor. There are a million causes for it, and I don't pretend to know all the answers, in terms of working towards solutions. But I do think that everybody that is willing to work should have a reasonably decent livelihood in a country like the United States, and — (applause) — how that is best achieved — I'm actually going to write something on it pretty soon. I have nothing against raising the minimum wage, but to raise it to a level sufficient to really change things very much, I think, would cost a whole lot of jobs. I mean, there are such things as supply and demand curves. And if you were to move it up dramatically, I think you would — it's a form of price fixing. I think you would change the opportunities available to people very dramatically. So I am much more of a believer in reforming and enlarging the earned income tax credit, which rewards people that work, but also takes care of those whose skills don't fit well into a market system. So I think you put your finger on a very big problem. I don't think — I don't have anything against raising the minimum wage, but I don't think you can do it in a significant enough way without creating a lot of distortions. Whereas, I do think the earned income tax credit makes a lot of sense and I think it can be improved. There's a lot of fraud in it. It pays out this lump sum, so you get into these payday type loans against — I mean, there's — a lot of improvements can be made in it. But I think the answer lies more in that particular policy than the minimum wage. And, like I said, I think I'm going to write something on it pretty soon. And if there's anybody I haven't made mad yet, you know, I'll take care of it in the next one. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,你刚听到一位民主党人在发言,这里是一位共和党人说,我同意他。我认为如果你大幅提高最低工资,那将是极其愚蠢的,会伤害穷人,而我认为扩大劳动所得税抵免会帮助穷人。(掌声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, you've just heard a Democrat speaking and here's a Republican who says I agree with him. I think if you raise the minimum wage a lot, it would be massively stupid and hurt the poor, and I think it would help the poor to make the earned income credit bigger. (Applause)

“荒谬的论点”:大学能提高终生收入

"Ridiculous argument" that college boosts lifetime earnings

沃伦·巴菲特我们转到 1 号站台。

WARREN BUFFETTLet's go to station 1.

现场股东嗨,我是迈克尔·莫纳汉,来自纽约长岛。沃伦,查理,高等教育体系已经扩张,几乎覆盖了所有想上大学的人。这种需求转化为不断上涨的大学费用。作为一名高二学生,我正在考虑宾夕法尼亚大学、维拉诺瓦大学、纽约大学、福特汉姆大学和波士顿大学等知名学府。另一方面,我父母被这个高昂标价吓到了。所有这些学校的标价都超过 6 万美元,根据 businessinsider.com 上的一篇文章,有些学生——比如纽约大学的情况——可能要支付超过 7 万美元。未来普通美国家庭如何能负担得起这笔费用?更重要的是,你们两位对此有何看法?

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi. I'm Michael Monahan (PH) from Long Island, New York. Warren, Charlie, the higher education system has expanded, covering almost everyone who would like to receive a college education. This demand has translated into rising college costs. As a high school junior, I'm looking at prestigious institutions such as UPenn, Villanova, NYU, Fordham, and Boston University. On the other hand, my parents are experiencing sticker shock. All of these schools have a sticker price of over $60,000, with some students, as shown in a businessinsider.com article, can pay over $70,000, as the case at NYU. How will the average American family be able to pay this in the future and, more importantly, how do you two feel about this?

沃伦·巴菲特查理?

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie?

查理·芒格嗯,普通美国家庭的做法是去便宜的地方上学,并从贵的地方获得大量补贴。如果我们只能给那些每年能开出现金支票支付 6 万或 7 万美元的人提供大学教育,那我们不会有那么多大学生了。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, the average American family does it by going to less expensive places and getting massive subsidies from the expensive places. If we had to give our college education to only people who could write cash checks for 60 or $70,000 a year, we wouldn't have that many college students.

沃伦·巴菲特对。

WARREN BUFFETTNo.

查理·芒格所以大多数人支付得更少或获得了补贴。但——我认为这是一个大问题,教育费用一直在涨,涨,涨。他们说,但受过大学教育的人做得更好。这是一笔大买卖。但也许他们做得更好是因为他们上大学之前本来就更好,而他们从不告诉你这一点。(掌声)

CHARLIE MUNGERSo most people are paying less or getting subsidies. And — but I think it is a big problem, that education has just kept raising the price, raising the price, raising the price. And they say, but college educated people do better. It's a big bargain. But maybe they do better because they were better to start with before they ever went to college, and they never tell you that. (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特这是个荒谬的论点。

WARREN BUFFETTIt's a ridiculous argument.

查理·芒格所以——

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd so —

沃伦·巴菲特我认为他们发布的最愚蠢的统计数据之一就是,说大学教育值 X 美元,因为上大学的人比没上大学的人多赚这么多。你说的是两个不同的群体。把全部差异归因于一个变量——他们上了大学,而不是考虑想去上大学并有能力考上大学的人之间的差异——

WARREN BUFFETTI think that's one of the silliest statistics that they publish, I mean, to say that a college education is worth X because people that go to college earn this much more than the ones that don't. You're talking about two different universes. And to attribute the entire difference to the one variable, that they went to college as opposed to the difference between the people who want to go to college and have the ability to get into college —

查理·芒格这完全疯了——

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's completely nutty —

沃伦·巴菲特——这是一种欺骗

WARREN BUFFETT— it's a fraud

查理·芒格——而且大约 70% 的人相信它。所以这让你对依赖同胞有点犹豫。(笑声)所以我认为大多数人只能在现有体制下挣扎。价格有一个很大的趋势,会涨到能收多少就收多少。人们只是理性地认为这项服务值这么多钱。我认为教育领域发生了很多这样的情况,当然——(掌声)——高等教育中教了很多对学习者没什么用的东西,当然,很多人从任何东西里都学不到什么。所以这确实是在浪费时间,事情就是这样运作的。所以我认为有很多问题。我注意到一个非常有趣的现象是,当大衰退来临时,美国每所成功的大学都惊人地人满为患,它们都表现得像 3G 资本一样。由于资金短缺,它们都裁掉了很多人。最终结果是,人走了之后,它们运作得反而更好了。所以这种精简规模并不全是坏事。我认为美国没有哪所大学想回到老习惯。但——你指出了一个切实的问题,面对那些高昂标价,就像生活中的任何其他问题一样。你找出最佳选择,然后接受它。我们改变不了维拉诺瓦或福特汉姆。它们会做它们想做的事。只要这行得通,它们就会继续涨价。

CHARLIE MUNGER— and about 70 percent of the people believe in it. So it gives you a certain hesitation about relying on your fellow man. (Laughter) So I think most people have to struggle through with the system the way it is. There's a big tendency to have prices rise to what can be collected. And people just rationalize that the service is worth it. And I think a lot of that has happened in education, and, of course — (applause) — a lot is taught in higher education that isn't very useful to the people who are learning it and, of course, a lot of those people would never learn much from anything. So it's really wasting your time, and that's just the way it works. So I think there's a lot wrong. What I noticed that was very interesting is that when the Great Recession came, every successful university in America was horribly overstaffed and they all behaved just like 3G. They all, with a shortage of money, laid off a lot of people. And the net result was they all worked better when it was all over with the people gone. And so this right-sizing is not all bad. I don't think there's a college in America that wants to go back to its old habits. And — but you put your finger on — it is a real problem to look as those sticker shocks. It's like any other problem in life. You figure out your best option and just live with it. We can't change Villanova or Fordham. They're going to do what they're going to do. And as long as it works, they'll keep raising the prices.

沃伦·巴菲特而且它还会继续有效。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd it will keep working.

查理·芒格是的,这差不多就是这个体制的运作方式。等真的糟糕到了一定程度,最终就会有人起来反抗。我在洛杉矶住的地方,小小的交通事故就搞到每个人的成本都居高不下,因为欺诈太多,还有脊椎按摩师、一些原告律师之类的推波助澜。最后,这些小事故的成本实在太高,人们开始担心,那些住在治安不好社区的人会不会连开车出去找份工作都负担不起。汽车保险公司心想,天哪,价格再这样涨下去,肯定会有人推动立法,搞出什么州立汽车保险之类的东西。于是最终的结果就是,它们对每个案子都跟原告律师对簿公堂,这就把问题解决了。也许类似的事情将来也会发生在高等教育领域。但如果没有某种重大的激励因素,我认为高等教育只会继续涨价。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. And that's pretty much the way the system works. When it really gets awful there's finally a rebellion. In my place in Los Angeles, the little traffic accident got so it cost too much to everybody because of so much fraud, and the chiropractors, and some of the plaintiffs' attorneys, and so on. And finally, the little accidents were costing so much that they worried about the guy who lived in a tough neighborhood who couldn't afford to drive out to get a job. And the auto insurance companies thought, my God, with prices going up like this, they'll have legislation creating state auto insurance or something. So the net result is they put the plaintiffs' attorneys to trial in every case, and that fixed it. And maybe something like that will happen in higher education. But without some big incentive, I think higher education will just keep raising the prices.

看好中国

Bullish on China

沃伦·巴菲特在这个愉快的氛围下,我们转到 2 号站台。

WARREN BUFFETTOn that cheerful note, we'll move to station 2.

现场股东谢谢您回答我的问题。我叫布伦丹·陈(音),来自台湾台北。我的问题是,中国正在经历诸多结构性变化。当您把脉中国经济时,您看到了什么?您会给出什么建议?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERThank you for taking my question. My name is Brendan Chin (PH). I'm form Taipei, Taiwan. My question is, China is undergoing a number of structural changes. What do you — when you take the pulse of the Chinese economy, what do you read and what advice would you give? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特查理是中国问题专家。我认为中国在一段时间内会发展得相当好。

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie's the China expert. I think China's going to do very fine over a period of time.

查理·芒格没错。我对中国正在发生的事情非常看好。事实上,我刚刚订购——准备了一尊李光耀的半身像,他是最近去世的新加坡前总理,因为我认为他做出了巨大贡献,先是改造了新加坡,之后又影响了中国。李光耀在新加坡做过的一件事就是制止腐败,包括将一些亲密朋友革职查办。中国也在做同样的事情。我认为这是我在很长很长的时间里见过一个大国所做的最聪明的事,而且我认为——如果主要的政治领导人是盗国贼,就很难树立起合适的榜样。你知道,没人希望被一群小偷统治。你需要有责任感的人。李光耀的做法是,大幅提高公务员薪酬,并招募非常优秀的人才。他建立了一套更好的体制,当然,中国正在广泛效仿他。他们正在做的事情非常了不起。所以我非常看好中国的发展,我认为这很可能会成功。说到底,他们还真枪毙了一些人,这确实能引起大家的注意。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. I'm a big fan for what's happening in China. And as a matter of fact, I've just ordered — prepared — a bust of Lee Kuan Yew, the recently deceased ex-prime minister of Singapore, because I think he's contributed so much to fixing, first Singapore, and then China. And one of the things Lee Kuan Yew did in China — in Singapore — was to stop the corruption, including cashiering some of his close friends. And China is doing the same thing. And I consider it the smartest damn thing I've seen a big country do in a long, long time, and I think that to — it's hard to set the proper example if the leading political rulers are kleptocrats. You know, you don't want to be run by a den of thieves. You want responsible people. And what Lee Kuan Yew did is he paid the civil servants way better and recruited very good people. And he just created a better system and, of course, China is widely copying him. And it's a wonderful thing they're doing. So I'm very high on what's going on in China, and I think it's — I think it's very likely to work. If you — they've actually shot a few people. That really gets people's attention. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特我们现在开始听到一些实用的建议了。(笑声)过去大概 40 年里中国发生的变化,实在太让我觉得不可思议了。我真是——我根本不敢相信,一个规模如此庞大的国家,能走得这么远、这么快。而且——

WARREN BUFFETTNow we're starting to get some practical advice here. (Laughter) What has happened in China, you know, over the last 40 or so years, I mean, I — it just strikes me as totally miraculous. I don't think — I would not have believed that a country could move so far so — a country of that size, particularly — so far so fast. And it's —

查理·芒格这在世界历史上都是前所未有的,一个如此庞大的国家能取得这么大的进步。我小时候,中国 80% 的人口是文盲,深陷在勉强糊口的贫困农业生活里。现在你再想想——他们经历了那么可怕的战争,再看看他们现在的样子。这是地球历史上最非凡的成就之一。有少数人为此做出了极为突出的贡献,包括那位在新加坡的华裔政治家。我认为中国共产党大量借鉴了李光耀的做法,功劳很大。伯克希尔所做的,也不过就是效仿正确的人。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt never happened before, in the history of the world, that a company so big had come so far. When I was a little boy, 80 percent of the population of China was illiterate and mired in subsistence poverty and agriculture. Now just think — and they've been through horrible wars and look at them. It's one of the most remarkable achievements in the history of the Earth. And a few people made an extreme contribution to it, including this Chinese politician in Singapore. And I give the Communist Party a lot of credit for copying Lee Kuan Yew. That's all Berkshire does is copy the right people.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。1790 年,美国有 400 万人口。中国有 2.9 亿人。他们和我们一样聪明。他们工作一样努力,气候相似,土壤相似。在那之后的近 200 年里,美国靠着那 400 万人一路发展,占据了全球 GDP 的近 25%,而中国基本上没什么进展。可同样是那些人,在 40 年里——他们现在并不比 40 年前更努力,论基本智力水平,他们也不比 40 年前更聪明——看看他们取得的成就吧。这着实向你展示了,当你找到一个能释放人类潜力的体制时,会迸发出多大的能量。我们在几百年前找到了一个释放人类潜力的体制,而他们在四五十年前找到了一个释放人类潜力的体制。当你看到这样的例子,它必然会对未来的走向产生深远影响。太令人惊讶了,人们可以在几个世纪里生活基本停滞不前,然后瞬间就爆发了。看到这些,我深感震撼,让你不得不感叹——还是同一群人,但他们找到了释放自身潜力的方式,我为此向他们表示祝贺。正如查理前面说的,中国和美国在可预见的未来都将是超级大国。在我看来,中国人找到了释放自身潜力的道路,这对我们实在大有好处。而且我认为,在这样一个世界上,两个拥有核武器的国家,必须想方设法去发现彼此身上的优点,而非紧盯缺点。我们会和中国有很多分歧,他们也会对我们有诸多不满,但请记住,总体来看,如果对方发展得好,我们双方的日子都会更好过。这纯属我个人观点。好的。(掌声)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. In 1790, the United States had 4 million people. China had 290 million people. They were just as smart as we were. They worked as hard, similar climate, similar soil. And for 200 — close to 200 — years, you know, the United States went with those 4 million people to close to 25 percent of the world's GDP and China really didn't go anyplace. And then those same people, in 40 years — and they're not working harder now than they were 40 years ago — they're not smarter now than they were 40 years ago, in terms of the basic intelligence — and just look at what's been accomplished. I mean, it does show you the human potential when you find a system that unleashes it, and we found a system that unleashed human potential a couple hundred years ago and they found a system that unleashed human potential 40 or 50 years ago. And, you know, when you see that example, you know, it has to have a powerful effect on what happens in the future. And it's just amazing that you can have people go nowhere, basically, in their lives for centuries and then just — it explodes. And it just blows me away to see it, and you make it — it's the same human beings, but they've — they found a way to unlock their potential and I congratulate them for it. And as Charlie said earlier, China and the United States are going to be the superpowers for as far as the eye can see. And it is really good for us, in my view, that the Chinese have found the way to unlock their potential. And I think its imperative for two countries with nuclear weapons that, in this kind of world, that they figure out ways to see the virtues in each other rather than the flaws. We'll have plenty of disagreements with the Chinese, and they will with us, but remember that on balance, we're both better off if the other one is doing well. That's just my own view. OK. (Applause)

“我们只是不断阅读……跟着直觉走”

"We just kept reading … and went with our instincts"

沃伦·巴菲特请 3 号站台。

WARREN BUFFETTStation 3, please.

现场股东巴菲特先生、芒格先生,你们好。我叫钱德·查瓦拉,来自旧金山。感谢你们过去 50 年来分享智慧,并成为正直的典范。50 年前,当你们刚起步或进入新行业时,在完全没有经验的情况下,你们是怎么摸索出一个新行业的运营关键指标的?

AUDIENCE MEMBERHello, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Chander Chawla and I'm from San Francisco. Thank you for the last 50 years of sharing your wisdom and being an exemplar of integrity. Fifty years ago, when you were starting out or getting into new industries, how did you figure out the operational metrics for a new industry where you did not have previous experience?

沃伦·巴菲特这个嘛,我们——第一,在某种意义上,我们当时并没有想得那么周全。但我们基本上是在寻找那些我们认为自己能够看懂未来 5 年、10 年或 15 年会是什么样的公司。这并不是说我们非得算到小数点后四位之类的那种精确程度,但我们确实得有感觉,而且我们深知自己的局限性。所以我们避开了很多领域。那个时候,市场价格水平不一样,所以——在确认自己付出的价钱够划算这件事上,当时做决定比现在容易得多。但这并不是说——那些决定并不复杂——其实,根本没有什么计划会议之类的东西。我们只是不断阅读、不断思考,并对碰到的机会一一审视,就像查理在电影里描述的那样,在机会 A 和机会 B 之间进行比较。那些年,我们资金受限,所以通常要买新东西就得先卖掉一些原有的东西。而这总会带来——你知道,当你拿手里持有的东西和新出现的机会做比较,看哪个更有吸引力时,这始终是个有趣的挑战。相比那些我们指望能获得辉煌回报的东西,我们可能极其偏好那些我们确信能得到不错结果的东西。我们跟着直觉走,一步一个脚印往前走。查理,你说呢?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we — A) we didn't have it thought out that well, in a sense, at that time. But we basically looked for companies where we thought we could understand what the future would look like 5 or 10 or 15 years hence. And that didn't mean we had to do it to four decimal places or anything of the sort, but we had to have a feel for it, and we had to know our limitations. So we stayed away from a lot of things. And at that time, prices were different, so we — in terms of knowing we were getting enough for our money, it was a much easier decision than it is currently. But it wasn't — they weren't elaborate — well, there were no planning sessions or anything of the sort. We just kept reading and we kept thinking and we kept looking at things that came along, as Charlie described it in the movie, and you know, comparing Opportunity A with Opportunity B. And in those days, we were capital constrained, so we usually had to sell something if we were going to buy something else. And that always makes for — you know, that's the — an interesting challenge, always, when you're measuring something you hold against something that has come along and to see which is more attractive. And we probably leaned very much toward things where we felt we were certain to get a decent result than where we were hopeful of getting a brilliant result. Went with our instincts, and kept putting one foot in front of the other. Charlie, what would you say?

查理·芒格嗯,这正是我们所做的,而且效果极为出色。一部分原因是我们两个确实是相当出色的人,工作上也配合得极有建设性,还有一部分原因是我们有点运气。我们交了好运。你看,沃伦说他很走运去了 GEICO,但并不是每个 20 岁的年轻人都愿意跑到华盛顿特区,去敲那些空荡荡的大楼的门,试图弄清自己好奇的事。所以我们是通过保持好奇和追求智慧,为自己创造了一部分运气,我们绝对会向任何人推荐这种做法。而且,没有什么能比犯错时真真切切被狠狠教训一顿,更能让你学到东西了,我们在这方面可没少经历,对吧?

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, that's exactly what we did, and it worked wonderfully well. And part of it is because we were such splendid people and worked so constructively, and part of it is we were a little lucky. We had some good fortune. Now, Warren says he was lucky to go to GEICO, but not every 20-year-old was going down to Washington, D.C., and knocking on the doors of empty buildings to try and find something out that he was curious about. So we made some of our luck by being curious and seeking wisdom, and we certainly recommend that to anybody else. And there's nothing that produces wisdom more thoroughly than really getting your own nose whacked hard when you make a mistake, and we had a firm amount of that, didn't we?

沃伦·巴菲特那是相当多。如果你读这本书,就会看到其中一些。我们曾以为自己懂巴尔的摩的百货商场生意,也以为自己懂印花券生意。我们在糟糕的企业上经验丰富,这倒让你更加珍惜好企业。在某种程度上,这磨练了你分辨企业好坏的能力。而且这一路上我们乐在其中,这也很有帮助。如果你正在做的是自己乐在其中的事,那最终结果很可能比你每天早晨咬着牙去上班要好得多。

WARREN BUFFETTWe had plenty of them. If you read this book, you'll see about a few of them. We thought we knew the department store business in Baltimore and we thought we knew about the trading stamp business. We've had a lot of experience with bad businesses, and that makes you appreciate a good one. And to some extent, it sharpens your ability to make distinctions between good and bad ones. And we've had a lot of fun along the way. That helps too. If you're enjoying what you're doing, you know, you're likely to get a better result than if you go to work with your teeth clenched every morning.

查理·芒格我觉得我们受益,是因为我们来自那种家里有可敬之人的家庭,而且相比如果我们出身于不同的背景,我们更善于识别其他可敬的人。所以我已故的妻子常说,你不可能在一代人的时间里取得很大成就。我们两人都在很大程度上受惠于养育我们的家庭。我认为,家庭的标准帮助我们更容易地识别好人,比我们如果出身于更为不利的背景要容易。你同意吗,沃伦?

CHARLIE MUNGERI think we were helped because we came from families where there was some admirable people, and we tended to identify other admirable people better than we would have coming from a different background. So, my deceased wife used to say, you can't accomplish much in one generation. We owe a considerable amount, both of us, to the families we were raised in. I think the family standards helped us to identify the good people more easily than we would have if we'd had a more disadvantaged background. Do you agree with that, Warren?

沃伦·巴菲特同意。你还留着你父亲的公文包吗?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Have you still got your father's briefcase?

查理·芒格还留着,但不知道放哪儿了。(笑声)已经没法拎了。磨损得太厉害,上面都有洞了。

CHARLIE MUNGERI've still got it, but I don't know where it is. (Laughter) Can't carry it anymore. It's worn out. It's got holes in it.

沃伦·巴菲特我留着的是我父亲 75 年前用过的书桌。

WARREN BUFFETTI've got my dad's desk from 75 years ago.

巴菲特如何找到他的第一批投资者

How Buffett found his first investors

沃伦·巴菲特好。4 号站位的提问者。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 4.

现场股东嗨,沃伦和查理。我们是来自洛杉矶 Talguard 的 Cora 和 Dan Chen。很高兴再次来到这里。感谢你们播下种子,让我们这一代能坐在树荫下乘凉,也感谢你们制作的《秘密百万富翁俱乐部》,让我的孩子们那一代也能坐在树荫下乘凉。我行走于巨人之间。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Warren and Charlie. This is Cora and Dan Chen from Talguard in Los Angeles, and we're thrilled to be here again. Thank you for planting the seeds for which my generation can sit under the shade, and for my children's generation with "The Secret Millionaires Club," so that they can sit under the shade. I walk amongst giants.

沃伦·巴菲特说下去,说下去。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTGo on. Go on. (Laughter)

现场股东我就这些了。(笑声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERThat's all I have. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特别有所保留。

WARREN BUFFETTDon't hold back.

现场股东但说真的,非常感谢你们教导我们的一切。

AUDIENCE MEMBERSeriously though, thank you so much for everything you've taught us.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you.

现场股东你们是怎样说服——(掌声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERHow were you able to persuade — (applause)

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you.

现场股东除了家人和朋友之外,你们在最早期,是怎样说服早期投资者克服他们的疑虑和恐惧,相信你们所做的事的?市面上还有很多其他资产类别,比如——很多人相信房地产、债券、黄金。你们是怎样克服这一障碍的?还有一件事,我一直特别想问你们——

AUDIENCE MEMBERHow were you able to persuade your early investors, all early on, besides your family and friends, to overcome their doubts and fears and to believe in what you're doing? There's a lot of other asset classes out there, such as — a lot of people believe, real estate, bonds, gold. How were you able to get over that? And something I've been really dying to ask you —

查理·芒格直到我们有了拿得出手的业绩记录,我们才算做得像样。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWe didn't do very well until we had a winning record. (Laughter)

现场股东在你们早期取得成功的业绩记录之前,你是怎么让他们接受你想做的事情的?我的意思是,从来没有人做过你做的事,现在也仍然没人做过。我一直特别想问您,过去您说过,自己是 90% 的格雷厄姆和 10% 的费雪。现在这个比例是多少?再次感谢您,作为受您教诲的感恩学生,我的孩子们也热爱您所做的事。他们给您写了封信。

AUDIENCE MEMBERPrior to the early winning record, how were you able to get them to buy into what you were trying to do? I mean, no one has ever done what you're doing, and no one has, still. And I've been really wanting to ask you, in the past, you said you're 90 percent Graham and 10 percent Fisher. Where does that percentage stand today? Thank you again from a grateful student of your teachings, and my children love what you do, too. They wrote you a letter.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。谢谢。(掌声)这里面有很多——你知道,我 20 岁就开始在这里卖股票了。我刚从哥伦比亚大学毕业。虽然我 20 岁,但看起来像 16 岁,举止像 12 岁。所以我并没有——我卖股票时没给人留下什么深刻印象。我过去常常在市中心到处走,上门拜访人,那时就是这么做的,然后我去为格雷厄姆工作。但我回来后,加入我的人,实际上——有我一个姐妹、她的丈夫、我的岳父、我的爱丽丝姑妈、一个大学室友、他母亲,我还漏了一个——但不管怎样,这些人就是信任我。我的岳父,当时是奥马哈大学(当时叫奥马哈大学)的院长,他把所有积蓄都给了我,你知道,他们基本上也都这样做了。所以那时——他们知道那时我已经做得相当不错了。那应该是 1956 年,所以我已经投资了五六年。实际上,当时我离开纽约回到奥马哈时,我有大约 17.5 万美元,而且我已经算是退休了。所以我猜他们认为,如果我 26 岁就退休了,那我肯定做对了什么,于是他们把钱给了我。然后事情就那样展开了。格雷厄姆-纽曼公司的一位前股东,一所大学的校长找来了,本·格雷厄姆当时正在结束他的基金合伙生意,他推荐了我。然后另一个人看到报纸上我们成立合伙公司的公告,打电话给我并加入了,就这样一个接一个。然后,实际上,一两年后,一个医生家庭打来电话,最终就是他们让我遇到了查理。所以,只要你坚持不懈地往前走,很多事情自然就会来。不过后来的记录,合伙公司的业绩吸引了资金,但最初更多的是认识我、信任我的人。不过这些钱数目很小。我们开始时只有 10.5 万美元。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTThank you. Thank you. (Applause) A lot of it — you know, I started selling stocks here when I was 20 years old. I got out of Columbia. And although I was 20, I looked about 16 and I behaved like I was about 12. So I was not — I did not make a huge impression selling stocks. I used to just walk around downtown and call on people, which is the way it was done, and then I went to work for Graham. But when I came back, the people that joined me, actually — one of my sisters, her husband, my father-in-law, my Aunt Alice, a guy I roomed with in college, and his mother, and I've skipped one — but in any event, those people just had faith in me. And my father-in-law, who was a dean at the University — what was then the University of Omaha — he gave me everything he had, you know, and to quite an extent they all did. And so it was — they knew I'd done reasonably well by that time. That would have been 1956, so I'd been investing five or six years. And actually, I was in a position where when I left New York and came back to Omaha, I had about $175,000 and I was retired. So I guess they figured if I was retired at 26, I must be doing something right and they gave me their money. And then it just unfolded after that. An ex-stockholder of Graham-Newman, the president of a college came out, Ben Graham was winding up his partnership for his fund and he recommended me. And then another fellow saw the announcement in the paper that we formed a partnership and he called me and he joined, and just one after another. And then, actually, a year or two later, a doctor family called and they were the ones that ended up with me meeting Charlie. So a lot of stuff just comes along if you just keep plodding along. But the record, later on, of the partnership attracted money, but initially it was much more just people that knew me and had faith in me. But these were small sums of money. We started with 105,000. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,当然这是起步的方式,但——这很神奇。我们现在看着很多其他人起步。那些遵循格雷厄姆-纽曼老路的人有一个共同点:他们都做得相当不错。我几乎想不出有谁做得不太——

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, of course that's the way you start, and — but it's amazing. We've now watched a lot of other people start. And the people that have followed the old Graham-Newman path have one thing in common: they've all done pretty well. I can hardly think of anybody who hasn't done moderately —

沃伦·巴菲特每个人都做得很好,是啊。

WARREN BUFFETTEverybody did well, yeah.

查理·芒格所以,只要你避免成为一个十足的蠢货——(笑声)——并且有好品格,日复一日地坚持下去,你会发现它惊人地有效。

CHARLIE MUNGERSo, if you just avoid being a perfect idiot — (laughter) — and have a good character and just keep doing it day after day, it's amazing how it will work.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。很大程度上是个意外。如果当初那些人没对我说,你知道,“我应该买什么?”然后我说,“我不会再回去干股票经纪这一行了,但我会——你知道,我们可以成立一个合伙公司,你的命运会和我一样,而且我不会告诉你我在做什么。”他们就加入了,事情就这样开始了。但这绝不是——丝毫不是事先计划好的。完全没有。我遇到查理,他当时在当律师,我告诉他那当个爱好还行,但那是门糟糕的生意。(笑声)于是他——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. It was accident, to a significant extent. If a few of those people hadn't have said to me, you know, "What should I buy?" And I said, "I'm not going to go back in the stock brokerage business, but I will — you know, we'll form a partnership and, you know, your fate will be the same as mine and I won't tell you what I'm doing." And they joined in, and it went from there. But it was not — it was not planned out in the least. Zero. I met Charlie, and he was practicing law, and I told him that was OK as a hobby, but it was a lousy business. (Laughter) And so he —

查理·芒格幸运的是,我听进去了。(笑声)不过,花了一段时间。

CHARLIE MUNGERFortunately, I listened. (Laughter) It took a while, however.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

芒格:理性是一种道德美德

Munger: rationality is a moral virtue

沃伦·巴菲特好的。5 号站。我们有——

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 5. We've got —

现场股东嗨,我叫亚瑟。我来自洛杉矶。我想感谢你让我们在你的家乡相聚。我们一直在听你讲你的商业才能和你所有的成功。毫无疑问,你擅长商业和金融,并且乐在其中。但你也曾评论过收入不平等、捐出 99% 的财富,这让我相信,你的动力不仅仅来自积累财富或财务收益。所以,我想谈谈你的核心价值观,问问你什么对你最重要,以及为什么?

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi. My name is Arthur. I'm from Los Angeles. I want to thank you for having us in your hometown. And we've all been listening to your business prowess and all your successes. There's no question that you're good at business and finance and have fun doing it. But there are comments that you've made on income inequality, giving away 99 percent of your wealth, and I'm led to believe that you're motivated by more than just amassing wealth or financial gains. So, I'd like to speak to your value core and ask what matters to you most and why?

沃伦·巴菲特查理,什么对你最重要?

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie, what matters to you most?

查理·芒格嗯,我想我有一个不走运的天赋分流。我比别人更擅长把问题想清楚,其他方面都不行。我永远不可能成为电影明星、运动员或演员什么的,所以——而且我很早就有了一个想法——部分来自我的家庭,尤其是我外祖父,我用他的名字命名,他也有同样的想法——那就是,说到底,你的主要责任是尽可能变得理性。我的意思是,在芒格法官心目中,理性是至高无上的,我父亲和其他人也是这样。既然我擅长这个,其他什么都不行,我就被引导到了一个对我很有效的方向——但我确实认为理性是一种道德责任。这就是我喜欢孔子的原因。他在那么多年前就有同样的想法。而且我认为伯克希尔算是一座理性的殿堂。在伯克希尔,最受推崇的人是能看清事物本来面目的人。你同意吗,沃伦?

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think that I had an unfortunate channeling device. I was better at figuring things out than I was at everything else. I was never going to succeed as a movie star, or as an athlete, or as an actor, something, so — and I, early, got the idea that — partly from my family, my grandfather, in particular, whose name I bore, had the same idea — that really, your main duty is to become as rational as you could possibly be. I mean, rationality was just totally worshiped by Judge Munger, and my father and others. And since I was good at that and no good at anything else, I was steered in something that worked well for me and — but I do think rationality is a moral duty. That's the reason I like Confucius. He had the same idea all those years ago. And I think Berkshire is sort of a temple of rationality. What's really admired around Berkshire is somebody who sees it the way it is. Wouldn't you agree with that, Warren?

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,那——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, that —

查理·芒格比任何事都重要,比——

CHARLIE MUNGERMore than anything, more than —

沃伦·巴菲特你最好看清事物的本来面目。

WARREN BUFFETTYou better see it the way it is.

查理·芒格嗯?

CHARLIE MUNGERHuh?

沃伦·巴菲特你最好看清事物的本来面目。

WARREN BUFFETTYou better see it the way it is.

查理·芒格看清事物的本来面目。所以,我就是这么做的。但这不仅仅是一种积累财富的技巧。对我来说,这是一条道德原则。我认为,如果你有一些很容易消除的无知,却任由它继续存在,那是很可耻的。我不认为那只是一个错误或是不够勤奋。我认为,让自己比本应达到的程度更愚蠢,就是可耻的。这就是我的信念。而且我认为人必须慷慨,因为不慷慨才尤为荒谬。我们是社会性动物,和他人紧密相连。

CHARLIE MUNGERSee it the way it is. And so, that's the way I did it. But that goes beyond a technique for amassing wealth. To me that's a moral principle. I think if you have some easily removable ignorance and keep it, it's dishonorable. I don't think it's just a mistake or a lack of diligence. I think it's dishonorable to stay stupider than you have to be, and so that's my ethos. And I think you have to be generous because it's crazy not to be. We're a social animal, and we're tied to other people.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我想说——这听起来可能不太崇高,但是——现在对我来说最重要的事,可能已经有相当一段时间了——我是说,有些事情很重要但你无能为力,比如你自己的健康、身边人的健康等等——但实际上,对我来说最重要的事是伯克希尔表现良好。基本上,我现在的处境是,我们可能有上百万甚至更多的人和我们有着联系,而这件事碰巧又让我乐在其中,所以我可以心安理得地做这件事。但如果伯克希尔表现糟糕,我是不会开心的。这并不代表股价下跌,或者经济年景不好。但如果我觉得我们不是每年都在建设一个比上一年更好的东西,我就不会开心。而且,你知道,我从中获得了巨大的乐趣,还能和我喜欢的人一起共事——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I would say — this doesn't sound very noble, but the — what matters to me most now, and probably has for some time — I mean, there are things that matter that you can't do anything about, I mean, in terms of health and the health of those around you and all that — but actually, what matters to me most is that Berkshire does well. Basically, I'm in a position where we've probably got a million or more people that are involved with us, and it just so happens that it's enormously enjoyable to me so I can rationalize it, the activity. But I would not be happy if Berkshire were doing poorly. That doesn't mean whether the stock goes down or whether, you know, the economy has a bad year. But if I felt that we weren't building something every year that was better than what we had the year before, I would not be happy. And, you know, I get this enormous fun out of it and I get to work with people I like and —

查理·芒格但这非常重要。事实上,像沃伦或者我这样的人,自己亏一点钱并不难承受,因为那无关紧要,但我们极其不愿亏掉别人的钱。这在文明社会中是一种非常可取的态度。难道你就不讨厌让伯克希尔亏钱吗?

CHARLIE MUNGERBut that's very important. Truth of the matter is it's easy for somebody like Warren or me to lose a little of our own money, because it doesn't matter that much, but we hate losing somebody else's. It's — and that's a very desirable attitude to have in a civilization. Don't you hate losing Berkshire money?

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。只有这件事会让我夜不能寐。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. That would be the only thing that would keep me up at night. (Laughs)

查理·芒格是啊。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。我们不会让那样的事发生。显然,我们会在个别项目上亏钱。我们可能会遇上经济不景气的年份,也可能遇到股市大幅下跌的年份。这些丝毫不会困扰我。困扰我的是,如果我做了些什么,实质上损害了伯克希尔的长期价值,然后我会觉得,你知道,那一天我的人生都会很灰暗。但幸运的是,我们能够避免绝大部分这类事情。我们确实可以挑选战场。在这方面我们非常幸运。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We won't do it. We can lose money on individual things, obviously. We can have bad years in the economy, and we can have years the stock market goes down a lot. That doesn't bother me in the least. What bothers me is if I do something that actually costs Berkshire, in terms of its long-term value, and then I feel, you know, I do not feel good about life on that day. But we can avoid most of that, fortunately. We do get to pick our spots. We're very fortunate with that.

查理·芒格嗯,一个好医生看到病人死在手术台上同样也不会好受,你知道。(笑声)这不算什么新鲜的想法。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, a good doctor doesn't like it when the patient dies on the table, either, you know. (Laughter) Not a new thought. (Laughter)

“最聪明的问题”没有答案

No help for "the most intelligent question"

沃伦·巴菲特好的。我们接——我们接 6 号台。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Let's go to — let's go to station 6.

现场股东嗨,巴菲特先生,芒格先生。我叫佩特拉·伯格曼,来自北欧瑞典的斯德哥尔摩。我为一个叫 EFN.SE 的机构工作。我想问你们,以我自己的角度来看,我现在能问你们的最聪明的问题,它的答案会是什么?(笑声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Petra Bergman. I'm from Stockholm, Sweden, in northern Europe. I work at something called EFN.SE. I wanted to ask you, from my point of view, what would be the answer to the most intelligent question I could ask you right now? (Laughter)

查理·芒格每个人都爱问这个问题,要是真能这样解决所有问题就太好了。但我不觉得这是个多好的问题。(笑声)或者我应该这么说——

CHARLIE MUNGEREverybody tries that question, and it would be wonderful if that would solve all your problems. But I don't think it's a very good question. (Laughter) Or perhaps I should say —

沃伦·巴菲特换个说法讲,查理。

WARREN BUFFETTLet's phrase that differently, Charlie.

查理·芒格嗯,我的意思是,当你要求一个人老老实实说出他能回答的最有启发性的问题是什么时,你对他的要求就太高了。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, what I mean is, you're asking too much of somebody when you — you ask him to honestly say what is the most enlightening question he can answer.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。学生们也经常问我这个。我听过很多次这种提问了,但回答起来一直都不太成功。所以我这次就只能讨个饶了。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I get that asked by the students a lot. And I've had a lot of practice in hearing it asked, but I haven't had very much success in answering it. So I'll have to beg off on that one.

巴菲特谈乐趣与“游戏”

Buffett on fun and "the game"

沃伦·巴菲特第 7 个怎么样?

WARREN BUFFETTHow about 7?

现场股东下午好,沃伦、查理。祝贺你们携手走过 50 年。我叫吉姆,来自纽约布鲁克林。这个问题算是接着刚才那个问题往下问。你们俩在伯克希尔·哈撒韦之前,做投资者、做基金管理人就已经很成功了。大家都知道你们严格遵循格雷厄姆的教导,但同样遵循这些教导的还有沃尔特·施洛斯和他儿子,他们的策略不同,也很成功。请问你们觉得,早期用小资金能取得成功,最重要的原因是什么?再回过头看,当时管理那些小资金时,你们本可以在策略上做哪些改进?

AUDIENCE MEMBERGood afternoon, Warren and Charlie. Congrats on 50 years. My name is Jim and I'm from Brooklyn, New York. This is kind of a follow-on to a recent question. You both had success in investing, even before Berkshire Hathaway, as investors and as fund managers. While it's well known you closely followed Graham's teachings, others, like Walter Schloss and his son, also had success with similar teachings, yet different strategies. What would you cite as the most important reason for your early success with small amounts of capital, and given hindsight today, what might you have done to improve your strategy with these small funds?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。我有一位好老师,有超乎常人的专注力,还有适合做投资的那种情绪特质。我享受这个游戏。到最后你总得把一切还回去。如果我没——你知道——那也不是关键。这个游戏本身就极为有趣。我记得吉恩·麦卡锡有次谈到橄榄球,大概意思是,这项运动的难度刚好够到让人觉得有意思,但又没难到超出人的理解范围,投资这个游戏差不多也是这样。我是说,它不像亨利·辛格尔顿面对的那种难题。这其实是个相当简单的游戏,但确实需要一定的情绪稳定性。我当时全力以赴地投入进去。我把各种手册什么的都翻了个遍,而且做这些事的时候我乐在其中。我说过,我从 7 岁到大概 19 岁这个阶段,同样怀有这种热情,但那时没有什么指导原则。后来我读到了《聪明的投资者》,遇到了本·格雷厄姆。从那时起,我就能把所有这些精力、所有东西,连同那股热情,都投进去,而且我现在有了一套非常合理——完全合理——的投资哲学,我发现我能运用它,于是这个游戏变得更有趣了。但真的没那么复杂。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, I had a great teacher, I had exceptional focus, and I had the right sort of emotional qualities that would help me in being an investor. I enjoyed the game. You do give it all back in the end. It wouldn't make any difference if I — you know, that was not the key thing. The game was enormously fun. And I think Gene McCarthy said about football one time, you know, it's just about, you know, hard enough to be interesting but not so hard as to be beyond the capabilities of people understanding it, and that's kind of the way this game is. I mean, it's not like Henry Singleton, kind of questions he took on. It's actually a pretty easy game, and it does require a certain emotional stability. And I went at it hammer and tong. I went through the manuals and everything, but I was enjoying when I did it. And, like I say, I started out — between ages seven and about 19, I had that same enthusiasm, but I didn't really have any guiding principle. And then I ran into "The Intelligent Investor" and Ben Graham. And then at that point, I was able to take all this energy and everything, and enthusiasm for it, and now I had a philosophy that made a lot of sense — total sense — and I found that I could employ, and so the game became even more fun. But it wasn't really more complicated than that. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我没什么要补充的。我确实认为,如果一个人有合适的性情,又能坚持下去——因为他喜欢、觉得有意思——那这个游戏很容易。我有一个问题,沃伦这方面比我轻。我不太喜欢给那些想靠精明、靠买入并被动持有证券来发财的人充当榜样。我觉得那算不上一种完整的人生。如果你靠着比别人更精明、买卖几张纸片就从生活中攫取了一大笔财富,我不认为你对自己拿走的东西给出了足够的回报。所以,要是你把钱投给大学捐赠基金、养老基金,或者为亲戚管钱等等,我喜欢这类事,但我从来不觉得,光靠精明选股然后被动持有,就足以构成一种人生。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I don't have anything to add. I do think that it's an easy game if somebody has the temperament for it and keeps at it because he's — likes it and it's interesting — interested in it. I have a problem that Warren has less of. I don't like being too much an example to people who want to get rich by being shrewd and buying and passively holding securities. I don't think that's enough of a life. If you wrest a fortune from life by being shrewder than other people and buying little pieces of paper, I don't think that's an adequate contribution in exchange for what you're taking. So, I like it when you're investing money for an endowment, or a pension fund, or your relatives, or something, but I never considered it enough of a life to merely be shrewd in picking stocks and passively holding them.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。就我个人来说,比起当年管理多个合伙基金,或者单管一个投资基金,管理伯克希尔要有意思得多得多。我是说,那——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Running Berkshire has been far, far more fun than running, in my case, multiple partnerships, or just an investment fund. I mean, that —

查理·芒格那你的人生格局会小得多。如果你继续管那个合伙基金——

CHARLIE MUNGERYou'd be less of a man. If you'd run that partnership —

沃伦·巴菲特那样过一辈子就太荒唐了。

WARREN BUFFETTIt would be a crazy way to go through life.

查理·芒格没错。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。我是说,它——你知道——伯克希尔带来的满足感要强太多了。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I mean, it just — you know, Berkshire is incredibly more satisfying.

查理·芒格所以,如果你只是擅长打理自己的钱,我希望你能转变去做点更有意义的事。

CHARLIE MUNGERSo if you're good at just investing your own money, I hope you'll morph into doing something more.

道琼斯被白白浪费的巨大机遇

Dow Jones's big missed opportunity

沃伦·巴菲特好。我们回答第 8 个问题,然后进入股东大会。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. We'll do 8 and then we'll move onto the annual meeting.

现场股东我叫约翰·博克托斯(音),来自马萨诸塞州南达特茅斯。我的问题是关于巴菲特先生您几年前接受的一个采访。您当时提了一个很有意思的观点,说的是老《华尔街日报》,也就是被新闻集团收购之前的那份报纸。您在采访中提到,《华尔街日报》过去某个时候曾拥有非常显著的竞争优势,但其中不少优势基本没有被兑现。我想请您详细谈谈这个,那些优势是什么,怎么就没被兑现,等等。谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is John Boxtose (PH). I'm from South Dartmouth, Massachusetts. My question was regarding an interview that you gave, Mr. Buffett, several years ago. You made a very interesting point. It was about the old Wall Street Journal, if you will, the one before it was purchased by News Corp. You mentioned in the interview that Wall Street Journal, at some point in the past, had very significant competitive advantages, but a number of them were largely unrealized. I was just wondering if you could elaborate on that, what the advantages were, how they were unrealized, et cetera. Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,道琼斯,它拥有《华尔街日报》。你知道,在 60 年代和 70 年代,金融信息开始大规模传播,金融信息的价值也在飙升,他们本来可以说占据着整个赛道。他们有新闻行情机,有《华尔街日报》,全国任何一个对金融感兴趣的人都认它。以这样的起点,置身于一个即将迎来难以置信的高增长的行业——金融业,接下来三四十年——我忘了他们搞过哪几项投资,我记得有一次他们买下了一个小型地方报纸连锁——总之他们完全错过了即将发生的一切。你知道,迈克尔·布隆伯格出现了,抢走了金融信息这块业务。他们原本手握巨大的先发优势。他们并没有认真去看那些本可以开拓的领域,那些领域本来极有可能把这家公司变成一家价值数千亿美元的企业。况且,他们的局面是家族控股,而一个律师实质上左右着家族的行动,他们日子过得很舒服。你知道,他们个个都在拿股息,但没有一个人有想象力,去思考在金融领域能做些什么。就这样,以这种地位起步,他们是一个值得信赖的名字,他们的新闻行情机遍布全国每一家券商。我记得有次去沃尔特·安嫩伯格家,他家里就有一台道琼斯行情机——或者说新闻行情机。他们不可能有比这更好的位置了。不可能有比这更强的起点了。他们的资产负债表也相当健康。然后,他们就这么让世界从身边呼啸而过。如今,鲁珀特正把它变成一份不一样的报纸。他正在——基本上是在跟《纽约时报》正面竞争——或者说已经开战了——但这正是他喜欢的游戏。这也造就了一个非常有意思的竞争局面。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, Dow Jones, which owned the Wall Street Journal, you know, in the '60s and '70s, going into the era of the enormous spread of financial information — and value of financial information — you know, they basically, they owned the field. They had the news ticker and they had the Journal, which, you know, anybody interested in finance in the country identified with. And they — starting with that, in what would be an incredible growth industry, finance, you know, for the next 30 or 40 years they — I forget a couple of those ventures they went into, and they bought a chain of small newspapers, I remember, one time — and they just totally missed what was going to happen. You know, here comes Michael Bloomberg and, you know, takes away financial information. They had such an advantage. And they didn't really see various areas that they could have pursued, which could have turned that company into something worth many hundreds of billions of dollars, in all probability. And, you know, they had a situation where a family owned it, and a lawyer essentially controlled the family's behavior, and they were sitting pretty. You know, they were all getting dividends, but there was nobody there with any imagination as to what could be done in the financial field. So, starting with this position, they were a trusted name, they were in every brokerage firm in the country with a news ticker. I mean, I went to Walter Annenberg's house one time and he had the Dow Jones ticker there — it just — or the news ticker. And it was — they couldn't have been in a better place. They couldn't have started with a stronger position. They had a very good balance sheet. And they just let the world pass them by. Now, Rupert is changing it into a different newspaper. He's going into — he's basically going into competition with the — or he's gone into competition — with the New York Times, so he — but that's the game he likes. And it makes for a very interesting competitive situation. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,他们最后好歹也拿到了六七十亿美元,所以也许他们确实错过了大机遇,但并没有毁掉自己的财富。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, they did end up with 6 or $7 billion, so they may have blown their opportunities, but they didn't destroy their fortune.

沃伦·巴菲特如果那副牌在汤姆·墨菲手里——

WARREN BUFFETTIf you'd had the hand — if Tom Murphy had had the hand —

查理·芒格哦,没错。

CHARLIE MUNGEROh, yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特——那就会是几千亿美元了,对吧?

WARREN BUFFETT— it would have been in the hundreds of billions, wouldn't it?

查理·芒格嗯,我不知道。我不确定如果那副牌在我们手里,我们会不会——

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I don't know. I'm not sure if we had had that hand we would have —

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我也不确定。我说的是墨菲。(笑)那里有很多机会啊。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I'm not so sure. I'm talking about Murph. (Laughs) There were a lot of opportunities there.

查理·芒格嗯,我觉得就算是墨菲,他跟我们一样,也不是比尔·盖茨。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think even Murph is more like us than he is like Bill Gates.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我不确定这话怎么接,但是……(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I'm not sure where that goes, but... (Laughter)

查理·芒格嗯,但我觉得要创造全新的模式之类的东西很难。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, but I think it's hard to invent new — entirely new — modalities and so on.

沃伦·巴菲特我觉得比尔在道琼斯也会干得很好。

WARREN BUFFETTI think Bill would have done well with Dow Jones, too.

查理·芒格是啊。他也许——

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. He might —

沃伦·巴菲特我真希望可以事后买进它。

WARREN BUFFETTI'd like to buy into that retroactively.

问答环节结束

Q&A concludes

沃伦·巴菲特好。3 点 30 分到了。大概五分钟后我们要进入股东大会。还有些正式事务要处理。感谢各位的到来。(掌声)

WARREN BUFFETTOK. 3:30 has arrived. We're going to go to the annual meeting in about five minutes. We've got a certain amount of formal business to take care of. And I thank you all for coming. (Applause)

伯克希尔正式年度业务会议

Berkshire's formal annual business meeting

沃伦·巴菲特我们重新集合,开始处理会议事务。会议现在正式开始。我是沃伦·巴菲特,公司董事会主席,欢迎大家参加 2015 年年度股东大会。今天上午我已经介绍了在场的伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事。今天在场的还有德勤会计师事务所的合伙人,他们是我们的审计师。他们可以回答你们可能提出的、有关他们对伯克希尔账目审计的合适问题。莎伦·赫克是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的秘书,她将做会议书面记录。贝基·阿米克被任命为本次会议的选举监察员。她将验证董事选举和本次会议待表决动议的投票计数。本次会议指定的代理投票人是沃尔特·斯科特和马克·汉堡。秘书,是否有关于伯克希尔已发行、享有表决权并出席本次会议的股份数量的报告?

WARREN BUFFETTLet's reassemble and we'll conduct the business of the meeting. The meeting will now come to order. I'm Warren Buffett, chairman of the board of directors of the company, and I welcome you to this 2015 annual meeting of shareholders. This morning I introduced the Berkshire Hathaway directors that are present. Also with us today are partners in the firm of Deloitte & Touche, our auditors. They are available to respond to appropriate questions you might have concerning the firm's audit of the accounts of Berkshire. Sharon Heck is secretary of Berkshire Hathaway, and she will make a written record of the proceedings. Becki Amick has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting. She will certify to the count of votes cast in the election for directors and the motion to be voted at this meeting. The named proxy holders for this meeting are Walter Scott and Marc Hamburg. Does the secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding, entitled to vote, and represented at the meeting?

莎伦·赫克是的,有。如本次会议通知所附的委托书中所示(该通知已于 2015 年 3 月 5 日寄给所有登记在册的股东,即本次会议的登记日),已发行 A 类伯克希尔·哈撒韦普通股 824,920 股,每股有权对会议审议的动议投一票;已发行 B 类伯克希尔·哈撒韦普通股 1,227,069,442 股,每股有权对会议审议的动议投一万分之一票。其中,通过截至 4 月 30 日星期四晚的代理投票,本次会议代表的股份为 592,750 股 A 类股和 736,403,387 股 B 类股。

SHARON HECKYes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent to all shareholders of record on March 5, 2015, the record date for this meeting, there were 824,920 shares of Class A Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at the meeting, and 1,227,069,442 shares of Class B Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each share entitled to one ten-thousandth of one vote on motions considered at the meeting. Of that number, 592,750 Class A shares and 736,403,387 Class B shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through Thursday evening, April 30.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,莎伦。这个数字构成法定人数,我们将直接继续开会。第一项议程是宣读上一次股东大会的会议记录。有请沃尔特·斯科特先生向会议提出动议。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Sharon. That number represents a quorum, and we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting. First order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott, who will place a motion before the meeting.

沃尔特·斯科特我提议,免于宣读上一次股东大会的会议记录,并批准该记录。

WALTER SCOTTI move that the reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders be dispensed with and the minutes be approved.

沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?

WARREN BUFFETTDo I hear a second?

现场人士我附议。

VOICEI second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特动议已提出并附议。有意见或问题吗?我们将以口头表决方式对这项动议进行投票。赞成者请说“赞成”。

WARREN BUFFETTThe motion has been moved and seconded. Are there any comments or questions? We will vote on this motion by voice vote. All those if favor say "Aye."

现场股东赞成。

AUDIENCEAye.

沃伦·巴菲特反对者?动议通过。

WARREN BUFFETTOpposed? The motion is carried.

选举伯克希尔董事

Election of Berkshire directors

沃伦·巴菲特下一项议程是选举董事。如果到场股东此前未提交委托书,或希望撤回已提交的委托书,可以亲自就董事选举及本次会议其他待审议事项进行投票。请向过道中的会议工作人员表明身份,以便领取选票。有请沃尔特·斯科特先生就董事选举事项向会议提出动议。

WARREN BUFFETTThe next item of business is to elect directors. If a shareholder is present who did not send in a proxy or wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in, you may vote in person on the election of directors and other matters to be considered at this meeting. Please identify yourself to one of the meeting officials in the aisle so that you can receive a ballot. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott to place a motion before the meeting with respect to election of directors.

沃尔特·斯科特我提议选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、霍华德·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、威廉·盖茨、戴维·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·吉曼、托马斯·墨菲、罗纳德·奥尔森、沃尔特·斯科特和梅丽尔·维特默为董事。

WALTER SCOTTI move that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, Walter Scott, and Meryl Witmer be elected as directors.

沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?

WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?

现场人士附议。

VOICESecond.

沃伦·巴菲特已有人提议并附议,选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、霍华德·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、威廉·盖茨、戴维·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·吉曼、托马斯·墨菲、罗纳德·奥尔森、沃尔特·斯科特和梅丽尔·维特默为董事。还有其他提名吗?有讨论吗?提名已准备就绪,可以付诸表决。如果有哪些股东亲自投票,请现在在选票上标记董事选举事项,并将选票交给过道中的会议工作人员。阿米克女士,等你准备好后,可以提交报告了。

WARREN BUFFETTIt has been moved and seconded that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, Walter Scott, and Meryl Witmer be elected as directors. Are there any other nominations? Is there any discussion? The nominations are ready to be acted upon. If are there any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballot on the election of directors and deliver their ballot to one of the meeting officials in the aisles. Ms. Amick, when you are ready, you may give your report.

贝基·阿米克我的报告准备好了。根据截至上周四晚上收到的委托书,委托书持有人对每位被提名人均投出了不低于 657,744 票。该数字远超所有已发行 A 类股和 B 类股总投票数的过半数。特拉华州法律要求的精确计票证明将提交给秘书,与本次会议记录一并存档。

BECKI AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast not less than 657,744 votes for each nominee. That number far exceeds a majority of the number of the total votes of all Class A and Class B shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,阿米克女士。沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、霍华德·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、威廉·盖茨、戴维·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·吉曼、托马斯·墨菲、罗纳德·奥尔森、沃尔特·斯科特和梅丽尔·维特默已当选为董事。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Ms. Amick. Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, Walter Scott, and Meryl Witmer have been elected as directors.

伯克希尔正式年度股东大会休会

Adjournment of formal Berkshire annual meeting

沃伦·巴菲特休会之前,还有人要提出其他事项吗?如果没有,我请斯科特先生提出一项动议供大会审议。

WARREN BUFFETTDoes anyone have any further business to come before this meeting before we adjourn? If not, I recognize Mr. Scott to place a motion before the moving.

沃尔特·斯科特我提议本次会议休会。

WALTER SCOTTI move that this meeting be adjourned.

沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?

WARREN BUFFETTSecond?

现场人士附议。

VOICESeconded.

沃伦·巴菲特休会动议已提出并获得附议。我们将以口头方式表决。有需要讨论的吗?如果没有,赞成的请说“赞成”。

WARREN BUFFETTA motion to adjourn has been made and seconded. We will vote by voice. Is there any discussion? If not, all in favor say "Aye."

现场股东赞成。

AUDIENCEAye.