2021 年股东大会 · 下半场

2021-05-01 · 原文约 19663 词
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动机决定回购的道德性

Motivation determines the morality of share repurchases

贝基·奎克好的,这个问题来自匹兹堡的股东丹尼·波兰。“一位知名参议员(马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦)最近将股票回购归类为一种市场操纵行为。您经常说,以低于内在价值的价格回购股票对持续持股的股东有利。请问您和查理能否详细说明这些回购对社会产生的更高层次影响?”

BECKY QUICKRight, this question comes from Denny Poland, a shareholder from Pittsburgh. "A prominent senator (Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts) recently categorized share buybacks as a form of market manipulation. You've often said that repurchasing shares at prices below intrinsic value benefits continuing shareholders. "Could you and Charlie please elaborate on the higher order effect that these share repurchases have on society?"

沃伦·巴菲特是的,它们是一种方式——它们基本上是一种将现金分配给想要现金的人的方式,而其他联合所有者大多希望你把钱再投资。它也是一种储蓄工具。如果我们四个坐在桌边的人决定买下几家冰雪皇后特许经营店,我们成立一家小公司,每人投入 100 万美元左右,然后买下这些特许经营店,它们经营得不错。我们四个人中有三个想继续购买更多冰雪皇后特许经营店。我们还没完成为未来建设储蓄的目标。我们从事的是创造财富的生意。第四个人说:“听着,我已经足够有钱了。我宁愿拿点钱出来。”那么,只有两种方式可以做到。我们可以向四个人都派发股息,但我们三个不想要。我们可以按公平价格回购股份——如果只有我们四个人的话——我们定个公平价格,第四个人退出他的权益。我几乎无法相信一些论点,说从想退出的合伙人那里回购股份是可怕的(笑),而你可以以对留下的人有利的价格来做这件事。这对想退出的人也有点帮助。伯克希尔的大多数股东——绝大多数——我们有一次对股息投票——我们是一群储蓄者。部分原因是我们把自己宣传成那种工具。我们创造了那种东西,坚持了 57 年。人们——个人——大量的人——把伯克希尔看作他们将持有到去世的东西。他们的处境可能改变,需求可能改变。但储蓄者通常会继续储蓄。就在最近,我们有一个(听不清)60 年前的人,资产数十亿美元。他们并不是纯粹为晚年储蓄,而是这已经成为他们的习惯。现在,慈善机构会得到很多钱等等。还有什么比这更合理的:如果你非常少数的持有者想退出,而大多数人想留下,并且想退出的人想要现金,你不会把钱给所有人。你会给那个想要的人。而且你以对大多数方有利的价格来做。在私人交易中,你会算出一个公平价值。市场告诉你价值,在公开上市公司的情况下。查理,有补充吗?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, they're a way of — they're a way of, essentially, of distributing cash to the people that want the cash when other co-owners mostly want you to reinvest. And it's a savings vehicle. If the four of us sitting at this table decided we'd buy a few Dairy Queen franchises, we form a little company, and we all put in a million dollars or something like that, and we buy the Dairy Queen franchises, and they're doing well. And three of the four of us want to keep buying more Dairy Queen franchises. And we're not done building and saving for the future. And we're in the wealth creation business. And the fourth one says, "Listen, I've gotten rich enough. I'd rather take some money out." And, well, there's only two ways to do it. We can pay dividends to all four of us, three of us — of whom don't want it. And we can repurchase the shares at a fair price — if it's just the four of us — we pick out a fair price and the fourth one gets bought out of his interest. I find it almost impossible to believe some of the arguments that are made that it's terrible to repurchase shares from a partner if they want to get out of something (laughs) and you're able to do it at prices advantageous to the people who are staying. And it helps slightly the person that wants out. And a majority of the Berkshire shareholders — a great majority — we had a vote on dividends one time — we've got savers. Now, that's partly because we've advertised ourselves as being that sort of a vehicle. We've created that something. We've stuck with it for 57 years. And people look — individuals — a huge number — look at Berkshire as something they're going to own till they die. Now they may — their circumstances may change. Their needs may change. But the savers generally keep saving. We just recently had somebody that (unintelligible) 60 years ago, and billions of dollars. And they just — they weren't saving, exactly, for their old age, just was sort of built into them that they liked to do it. Now, philanthropies will get a lot of money and so on. It's the most — what could be more logical than, if a very small minority of your holders want to get out, and most of them want to stay in, and the person that wants to get out wants the money, you don't give the money to everybody. You give it to the one who wants it. And you do it at a price that is beneficial to most parties. On a private deal, you'd work out the fair value. The market tells you the value, in the case of a publicly traded company. Charlie, got anything?

查理·芒格嗯,如果你回购股票只是为了抬高股价,那是极其不道德的。但如果你回购股票是因为这是符合现有股东利益的公平行为,那就是高度道德的行为。批评它的人脑子有问题。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, if you're repurchasing stock, just a bull it higher, it's deeply immoral. But if you're repurchasing stock because it's a fair thing to do in the interest of your existing shareholders, it's a highly moral act. And the people who are criticizing it are bonkers.

税法变更不会影响伯克希尔不派息立场

Tax law change wouldn't affect Berkshire's no-dividend stance

贝基·奎克好的,这个问题来自加里·甘比诺。他想知道“如果资本利得税率上调至 43.4%,伯克希尔是否会将资本回报政策从回购转向股息。在这种情况下,股息对股东来说税收优势会更明显。”

BECKY QUICKOK, this comes from Gary Gambino. He wants to know "if Berkshire would switch it's capital return policy to dividends from buybacks if the capital gains rate goes up to 43.4%. Dividends would be far more taxed-advertised for shareholders under that scenario."

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我们实际上确实让股东进行了投票。现在,我们的股东群体不同于 REIT 或 MLP 可能有的。我的意思是,人们选择他们投资的东西。投资 SPAC 的人希望股票下周上涨,基本上就是这样。我们有一群人是在 55 年里汇聚起来的,但他们的基础是那些把它看作终身投资的人。如果他们想套现,他们希望那时能拿到公平价格。但他们买的时候并没有这种意图。所以,我们进行了投票,我想大概是 97% 左右的股份表示他们不想要股息。这在其他公司不会是这样。如果可口可乐多年来一直派发定期股息,然后突然改变政策,让数百万持有一个预期的人面对一种不同的东西,那会是疯狂的。但可口可乐不会变成伯克希尔,伯克希尔也不会变成可口可乐。我们有不同的所有者群体。这将继续自我选择,因为人们每天都有选择:你想要哪种东西?伯克希尔在这方面是一种特定的动物。所以,我们不会——如果他们调整税法,这实际上与决定无关。我的意思是,我们有一个非常庞大的多数人希望我们把钱再投资。他们更担心的是我们是否找到用这笔钱的方法,比如 1000 亿美元左右。回购股票对他们有帮助——他们随着时间推移拥有伯克希尔更大的比例。他们很乐意看到我们收购另一家企业。但他们也不介意我们强化他们在现有业务中的利益。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We literally did have a vote by our shareholders. Now, we've got a different group of shareholders than a REIT would have or, you know, an MLP might have. I mean there's different — people select what they go into. And people that go into SPACs are hoping the stock goes up next week, you know, I mean, basically, and — We've got a bunch of people that were assembled over 55 years, but they started with a base of people that — it was a lifetime investment. And if they wanted to cash out, they thought they'd get a fair price at that time. But they really didn't — they bought it with no intentions like that. So, we had a vote, and I think it was something like 97% or something of the shares said they don't want a dividend. And now, that wouldn't be true at other companies. And it would be crazy to be paying a regular dividend, like Coca-Cola has done for many years, and then, all of a sudden, change the policy on millions of people who had bought it with one expectation in mind, and try and change it into a different animal. But Coca-Cola isn't going to change to Berkshire, and Berkshire isn't going to change to Coca-Cola. We've got a different group of owners. And it will keep self-selecting, because people have a choice every day: which do you want — sort of thing do you want to be in? And Berkshire is a certain kind of animal in that respect. So, we will not — if they jig around the tax laws, I mean, that's really got nothing to do with the decision. I mean we've got a very substantial majority of people that want us to reinvest the money. And what they're more concerned about is whether we find something to do with the money, the hundred billion or something. And repurchasing shares is something that helps them in their — they own a larger percentage of Berkshire as they go along. And they'd love to see us buy another business. But they don't mind us intensifying their interest in the present business.

巴菲特投票给拜登,但不想在股东大会上谈论税收

Buffett voted for Biden but doesn't want to talk taxes at the meeting

贝基·奎克你收到了很多关于税收的问题。我这就问几个。我们看看,你和大家能回答多少——在你回答之前能答上来多少。但这个问题来自丹佛的亚瑟·刘易斯:“你对新政府的资本利得税、公司税,以及加征税基这些增税措施怎么看?”

BECKY QUICKYou had a lot of questions that came in on taxes. So, I'll run through a few of them. We'll see, kind of, how many of you answered them — how many you answer before we get to them. But this one came from Arthur Lewis in Denver: "What are your thoughts on the new administration's capital gains, corporate tax, and stepped-up basis tax increases?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,如果查理想回答这个问题,我很乐意让他来做。我很久以前就多次说过,我担任这个职务时不会把我的政治观点之类的东西放入保密信托。但我也不代表伯克希尔·哈撒韦说话。我们公司里的人在税收问题上有非常不同的看法。你知道,我过去表达过一些观点。我不喜欢代表——当我坐在伯克希尔·哈撒韦的年度股东大会上,大概是代表伯克希尔说话时,我通常不太想进入政治问题。我确实认为我不该这样。但我也认为,如果有人问我上次选举投了谁的票,从个人角度说,我投了拜登。但我不会——我从不问任何一个员工他们投了谁的票,或者任何类似的事情——什么宗教——就是——我没有授权到处以伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长的名义签署提案。如果我写评论文章,我会以个人身份来写。我尽量明确这一点。所以,我不想利用这次会议来发表很多关于税收的看法。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, if Charlie wants to answer that, I'll be glad to have him do it. I, long ago, many times, have said that I don't put my political opinions or anything in a blind trust when I take this job. But I also don't speak for Berkshire Hathaway. I mean we've got people that have very different views on taxes. And, you know, I've expressed some things in the past. I don't like to speak on behalf of — when I'm sitting in a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, presumably, speaking for Berkshire, I don't really like to get into political questions, generally. I don't really think I should. But I also think, if somebody asked me who I voted for the last election, on a personal basis, I voted for Biden. But I don't — I've never asked a single employee of ours who they voted for, you know, anything of the sort — what religion — it just — it's — and I am not authorized to go around signing my name as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway to proposals. If I wrote op-ed pieces, I do it as an individual. I try and make it clear. So, I don't think I'll use — I don't want to use the meeting to give a lot of views on taxes. Charlie?

查理·芒格不,但是——

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, but —

芒格谈加税:“基本上是反资本主义是错误的”

Munger on tax hikes: "Mistake to be basically anti-capitalist"

查理·芒格我认为,基本上持反资本主义立场可能是个错误。我认为资本主义是让所有人的 GDP 增长的东西。所以——我还有一种感觉,本杰明·富兰克林说得对:“空口袋很难立起来。”在某种程度上,美国领先机构的繁荣有助于它们表现得更好。当然,在促销金融等领域存在例外。但总体而言,富兰克林是对的。所以,我有点警惕仅仅因为别人有更多钱就不断对他们发火。

CHARLIE MUNGERI think it's probably a mistake to be basically anti-capitalist. I think capitalism is what raises GDP for everybody. And so — And I have also a feeling that Benjamin Franklin was right when he said that, "It's hard for an empty sack to stand upright." And to some extent, the prosperity of leading American institutions helps them behave better. Now, there are exceptions in promotional finance, and so on. But, by and large, Franklin was right. And so, I'm a little wary of just constantly being mad at people because they have a little more money.

芒格谈税收:“各州赶走最富公民是愚蠢的”

Munger on taxes: "It is stupid for states to drive out their wealthiest citizens"

贝基·奎克查理,有一个问题是专门问你的,来自加州埃尔蒙特的托尼·G·李。“多年来,特别是在 2020 年,我们听到人们因各种原因离开加州,例如生活成本高、税收高等。我理解你认为各州制定政策和法律驱赶富人离开是愚蠢的。但你如何看待那些离开的人?是什么让你留在加州?”

BECKY QUICKCharlie, there was a question that came in specifically to you on the tax issue (from Tony G. Lee of El Monte, California). "Over the years, and with emphasis in 2020, we've heard people leaving California for various reasons, such as high cost of living, high taxes, etc. I understand that you believe it's dumb for states to have policies and laws that provoke rich residents leaving. But are your thoughts — what are your thoughts on those people leaving? What keeps you in California?"

查理·芒格嗯,这是一个非常有趣的问题。我经常说,我不会为了给我的孩子省 5 亿美元的税而搬到街对面。所以,这是我个人的看法。但我确实认为,各州赶走最富的公民是愚蠢的。老人们不犯罪,他们向当地慈善机构捐款。哪个正常人会赶走有钱人?我是说,佛罗里达这样的地方非常精明。而加州这样的地方非常愚蠢。这违背了州的利益。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, that's a very interesting question. I have frequently said I wouldn't move across the street to save my children 500 million in taxes. And so, I have — that's my personal view on the subject. But I do think it is stupid for states to drive out their wealthiest citizens. The old people, they don't commit any crimes. They donate to the local charity. Who in the hell in their right mind would drive out the rich people? I mean Florida, and places like that, are very shrewd. And places like California are being very stupid. It's contrary to the interests of the state.

“所有公司税增加都会转嫁给消费者”这种说法纯属“虚构”。

It's "fiction" that all corporate tax hikes are passed on to consumers

贝基·奎克再问你一个问题。杰克·罗宾斯问:“25% 到 28% 的公司税率将如何影响伯克希尔旗下公司?”

BECKY QUICKOne more question for you. Jack Robbins asks, "How will a 25 to 28% corporate tax rate affect Berkshire's companies?"

查理·芒格嗯,我认为这不是世界末日。无论税率是多少,我们都已适应。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I don't think it would be the end of the world. We've adapted to the tax rate, whatever it is.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我得说,如果政府提高税率,那相当于联邦政府在生意里占的份额变得更大了。我不是——我不是在说具体税率是多少。但我们的股票分 A 类股和 B 类股。美国政府持有的,我称之为 AA 类股。那是一种非常特殊的股票。他们从利润里分走一个比例,但他们并不拥有公司资产。他们没有投票权,不能决定谁来经营公司或其他任何事情。但如果政府想要拿走——我刚起步那会儿,联邦政府会拿走企业利润的 52%。他们现在拿的——你愿意花多少钱来拥有政府那张 AA 类股票?如果美国财政部公开发行这么一个东西,说这个投资工具——给它起个名字,比如 SPAC 或者更吸引人的称呼——它唯一做的事情就是永久拥有伯克希尔·哈撒韦未来的全部税款。它现在值多少钱?它还会派发大笔的现金分红,随着我们留存利润、发展公司,这个分红还会增长。那么,如果税率是 25% 或 28% 或 52%,它肯定比税率 21% 的时候更值钱。政府持有一种特殊的股票。当人们谈论这些税负如何全部转嫁给消费者的时候——在公用事业领域,确实会转嫁。那是个特例。但在我们大多数业务里,不会。我是说,这不过是——当有人发表声明说,增税对你们所有这些……的人将极为不利——(笑)——如果我们缴更多的税,那完全是企业界的虚构说辞。税率提高,受伤的是伯克希尔的股东。这也许相当合理。但要说别的,就完全说不通了。我真希望政府可以真的发行——他们可以搞一个公司,就叫“伯克希尔·哈撒韦税务公司”,专门收取我们每年缴纳的所有税款。他们能把这个资产卖多少钱?人们总在谈论政府的无资金支持的负债。但那其实是联邦政府没有在账上体现的一项资产。政府拥有伯克希尔的一部分,而且他们有权决定这一部分有多大。我是说,这个问题很有意思。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I would say, if they raise the tax rate, they're owning a — the federal government's owning a larger percentage of the business. I'm not — but I'm not saying what the tax rate is. But we have a Class A stock and a Class B stock. The U.S. government owns what I call the Class AA stock. And it's a very special stock. They get a percentage of the earnings, but they don't own the assets. And they don't vote on who gets to run the place or anything else. But if the government wants to take — when I was first starting, they used to take 52%, the federal government did, of corporate profits. And they've got — what would you pay to own the government's Class A — double-A — stock? If there was a public issue by the U.S. Treasury and they said this vehicle — give it a name like SPAC or something even sexier, but — and all it will do is it owns the future tax payments of Berkshire Hathaway forever. And how much is that stock now worth? And it gets — and it'll pay a big cash dividend, and they'll go up as we retain earnings and build the company and everything else. Well, it's worth more if it's — if the tax rate is 25% or 28% or 52%, than at 21%. They own a special stock. And when people talk about how it all gets passed through to the customer and everything — in the utility business, it actually does. That's a special case. But it doesn't — it doesn't in most of our businesses. I mean it's just — it's a corporate fiction when they put out statements about the fact that this will be terrible for all of you people who have — (laughs) — if we pay more taxes. It hurts the Berkshire shareholders if rates are higher. And that may be quite appropriate. But to say otherwise is just — it doesn't make any sense. I would love to see the government actually issue — they could have — I mean they could set up a company. Just call it the Berkshire Hathaway Tax Company. And it would take all the taxes we paid every year. How much would they be able to sell that asset for? They talk about unfunded obligations of the government. That's an unreported asset of the federal government. They own part of Berkshire, and they get to determine how much. I mean, it's an interesting question.

巴菲特:我希望我的钱流向慈善事业,而不是减少国债

Buffett: I'd like my money to go to philanthropy rather than reduce the national debt

贝基·奎克最后一个税务问题。这个问题来自威廉·巴纳德,他说:“沃伦,你在年报中的《股东手册》里写道:‘我去世时,不需要出售任何股票来支付我留下的现金遗赠或税款。’拜登政府最近提出的提案,要求将未实现收益视为去世时已出售并按 43.4% 的税率征税,这个提案是否会改变你去世时为了缴纳税款而需要出售的股票数量?”

BECKY QUICKOne last tax question. This one comes from William Barnard, who says, "In the Owner's Manual, a portion of your annual report, Warren, you state, 'On my death, none of my stock will have to be sold to take care of the cash bequests I've made or for taxes.' "Would the recent Biden proposal to treat unrealized gains as sold and taxable at death at a 43.4% rate change the amount of stock required to be sold for payment of taxes upon your death?"

沃伦·巴菲特是的。嗯,税法明天就可以改。而且我不——你知道,变动的办法有很多。过去也有过很多种不同的改法。我可以告诉你——我确实可以向社会做出一个承诺:我去世时,99.7% 的财产要么捐给慈善,要么交给联邦政府。而联邦政府完全可以自行制定这方面的规则。不,我更希望这些钱流向慈善。我认为,如果由慈善领域里一些聪明人来使用这些钱,会比在我去世时只是让联邦债务减少 1000 亿之类的带来更大的实际效用。我不觉得联邦债务多 1000 亿还是少 1000 亿有什么鸟区别(笑),你知道的,这根本改变不了世界上的任何事情。当前来看,这其实也省不了他们什么钱,因为他们可以借 1000 亿,而且反正几乎不花什么成本。但这种债务状况不会一直持续下去。但我并不——我不会把这看作——我只是在谈个人想法,我并不是在倡导这作为一项公共政策。但我不会——如果政府全部拿走,你知道,我也不会在意。我是说——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, the tax law can be changed tomorrow. And I don't — you know, it can be done a lot of different ways. And it's been done a lot of different ways in the past. I can tell you — I can actually make a promise to society, that 99.7% of what I have when I die will either go to philanthropy or to the federal government. And the federal government can actually determine the rules on that. And no, I would prefer that it would go to philanthropy. I think it actually will accomplish more utility if it goes to be used by some smart people in philanthropy than if it simply reduces the federal debt by a hundred billion dollars or something when I die. I don't think it makes a damn bit of difference (laughs) you know, if the federal debt is 100 billion higher or lower. It won't change anything in the world. And in present days, it doesn't really save them anything, because they can borrow a hundred billion, and it doesn't cost them anything anyway. But that debt condition won't prevail. But I don't — I would not regard — I'm just talking personally, I'm not really advocating as this public policy. But I wouldn't — if they took it all, you know, it would not bother me. I mean it —

查理·芒格我保证你不会在意。

CHARLIE MUNGERI guarantee it won't bother you.

沃伦·巴菲特对!(笑声)查理说:“你到时候又不知道。”(笑声)你知道,如果你决定——如果美国民主认为最好把一切全部拿走——我不认为他们会这么做,也不认为他们应该这么做——但话说回来,那又怎样呢?(笑)我更希望这笔钱能被用来为人类做出最大的贡献。我是说,这意味着要有聪明的人,动机纯正——更重要的是,没有不当动机——来分配它——而谁知道 10 年、20 年、30 年或 40 年后它会变成什么样呢?我只知道,如果这笔钱到了政府手里,那基本上就是等额减少国债。我不认为这会改变他们是否修改最低工资法,或者做其他任何事情。(笑)我只是觉得那个小数字会变一变。总有一天,预算里会出现,你知道,收到巴菲特,X,然后(笑)下面会出现一个巨大的数字。我并不觉得这真的——所以我更希望它能由私人来使用。但这最终要由美国人民通过他们的代表来决定。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah! (Laughter) Charlie says, "You won't know." (Laughter) You know, if you decide — if American democracy decides that it's better to take it all — which I don't think they will, and I don't think they should — but nevertheless, you know, so what, you know? (Laughs) I would like to see it used to accomplish the most for humanity. I mean, and that means having smart people, properly motivated — and more importantly, not improperly motivated — distribute it in a way — and who knows what the hell it would be, 10, 20, 30, or 40 years from now? I do know, if it goes to government, it basically reduces the national debt by that amount. I don't think it changes whether they change the minimum wage laws or does anything else. (Laughs) I just think that little figure changes. It'll be — you know, it'll show up in the budget one day, you know, received from Buffett, you know, X, and then (laughs) some huge figure appears down below. I don't think it really — so I would prefer it be used privately. But that's really up to the people in the United States to decide through their representatives.

保险行业对疫情风险“完全低估”

Pandemic risk was "totally underpriced" by insurance industry

贝基·奎克下一个问题请教阿吉特。这个问题来自密苏里科技大学唐·温施教授。他说:“贾恩先生,COVID-19 疫情在系统性风险和相关性风险方面,给我们带来了什么教训?今后我们会做出哪些改变?”

BECKY QUICKNow this next question's for Ajit. It comes from Professor Don Wunsch at the Missouri University of Science and Technology, who says, "Mr. Jain, what has COVID-19 taught us about systemic and correlated risk? And is there anything that we will do differently from now on?"

阿吉特·贾恩是的。在保险行业,我们经常把疫情风险视为业务中需要应对的风险因素之一。话虽如此,我认为经历了最近这段时期,对我们来说最大的教训是:虽然我们意识到疫情风险是一个风险因素,但我们整个行业对它的定价都完全、完全不足。

AJIT JAINYeah. In the insurance business, we often think about pandemic risk as one of the risk factors that we need to cope with in our business. Having said that, I think the big lesson for us, having gone through what we've gone through recently, is that, while we were aware of the fact that pandemic risk is a risk factor, it was totally, totally underpriced by all of us in the industry.

阿吉特·贾恩我们不少人过去认为,这种事件最多一百年发生一次。即便如此,那个概率也已经相当高了。所以,我认为最大的教训是,我们需要重新校准和思考,像疫情风险这样的事件,其重现周期到底有多长。此外,作为一个行业,我们在评估风险相关性、整合风险以及确保能应对总量风险方面,做得还不够好。举例来说,疫情风险显然夺走了生命——夺去了人们的生命。但同时,我们中有不少人过去承保一种叫“事件取消险”或“偶发事件险”的保单。在给这类偶发事件险定价时,比如奥运会取消,NBC 会为其转播权购买保险,因为一旦取消,转播权的价值可能瞬间大幅缩水。在给这类保单定价时,我们会考虑地震风险,最近还会考虑恐怖主义风险。但我们从未将疫情的影响作为保费定价的一部分单独计算。所以,我认为整个行业未来会更成熟,会全面地思考疫情风险对整个保单组合的影响,而不仅仅是局限在一两个领域。

AJIT JAINSeveral of us thought it's an event that'll happen, at most, once in a hundred years. And even then, those odds are pretty high. So, I think the big lesson for us is to recalibrate and rethink about what the return time is for something like a pandemic risk. And separately, we haven't yet done a good enough job as an industry, I'm saying, in terms of correlating the risk and aggregating the risk and making sure we can deal with the aggregate numbers. For example, pandemic risk has obviously taken the lives — taken people's lives. But then separately, a bunch of us used to write something called "event cancellation," or "contingency" policies. And, in terms of pricing for the contingency policies, like the Olympics being canceled, NBC would buy insurance for their rights, which might suddenly be not worth much. And when pricing something like that, we would think in terms of earthquake and risk and, more recently, terrorism. But we would never factor something like what portion of the price should come from the pandemic exposure. So, I think the industry will become a lot more sophisticated, in terms of thinking through what is the impact of pandemic risk across the entire portfolio, as opposed to it just being localized to one or two areas.

贝基·奎克抱歉,唐教授还问,阿吉特回答后,台上的其他人是否想补充?

BECKY QUICKAnd I'm sorry, Don asked if anyone else on the stage wanted to comment after Ajit on that same topic.

沃伦·巴菲特我没听到这句。

WARREN BUFFETTI missed that.

贝基·奎克哦,他刚才只是想看看台上还有没有人想就此说两句。

BECKY QUICKOh, he was just looking if anyone else on the stage wanted to comment on that.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,阿吉特提到了,大家过去在承保——比如赛事取消险的时候,有很多人会买奥运会取消或美国队不参赛的保险。他们会试图考虑各种风险,因为客户有广告活动需要投保。所以这类赛事取消险的数量很大。其中,隐含在保费里、用于覆盖疫情风险的那部分,很可能被定价不足了。我是说,你知道,比尔·盖茨五六年前在 TED 大会上做过一次非常精彩的演讲,但当时没人当回事。这很有意思,因为我们这次经历的根本不算最坏的情况。但即便如此,后果也已经非常惊人了。至于那些签发保单的公司——他们有时会发现,自己承保了一些原本不想承保、甚至根本无意承保的条款,可能被保险人自己也没想过要买。但事件发生后,索赔方会变得非常富有创造力,想尽办法找他们索赔。另外,有些风险实在太大。比如核风险。联邦政府很早就意识到了这一点。私营保险业无法承担那种风险——比如说大规模核打击带来的财务风险。所以,疫情——未来的保单在措辞上会非常小心(笑),会试图非常精确地定义它。顺便说一句,就目前看到的案件审理情况而言,在英国——我的意思是,有某一家保险公司——判例对保险公司比对美国要严厉得多。我说的是,保单的写法不一样。你没买的东西——你是得不到保险的。总的来说,美国的法庭判决对保险公司相对有利。而在伯克希尔,碰巧我们在这个领域不是大玩家。但在商业综合险中——那可能是保单最集中的领域——对我们而言不是什么大问题。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, as Ajit mentioned, people were throwing in — well, in event cancellation, you know, I mean lots of people buy insurance against the Olympics being canceled, or the United States not participating. I mean they try to think of all kinds of risk because they have ad campaigns based upon all — So, there's a lot of event cancellation insurance. And it was probably underpriced — the implicit part of that premium that was attributable to a pandemic risk. I mean, you know, Bill Gates gave a terrific talk at Ted events five or six years ago, and people ignored it. And it's very interesting, because this isn't a worst case, what we've seen. And yet, it's staggering, in terms of what has happened. And people that wrote insurance, that — they may have found out, sometimes, that they were covering things they didn't want to — didn't even intend to cover and maybe the insured didn't think they were buying. But nevertheless, after the event occurs, that they get very inventive in coming after them. There are certain risks, too, that are just too big. The nuclear risk, for example. I mean the federal government is, very early on, recognized it. The private insurance industry — they can't handle the risk involved in — the financial risk — that would be involved in terms of a massive nuclear strike or something like that. So, it's — Pandemics — the wording will be much more careful (laughs) in future policies on trying to define it very precisely. And incidentally, I mean, in the way the cases have come so far, in the United Kingdom — I mean, and I think there was one particular insurer — I mean, the cases are coming down much tougher on insurers than in the United States. I mean, the policies were just written differently. You don't — you don't get insurance against something you don't buy (unintelligible) for. And generally, the court decisions have come down favorable to insurers. And at Berkshire, it just so happens, we are not a big player. But that's — in commercial multiple peril — which might be where — it is not a huge factor for Berkshire.

伯克希尔的 COVID-19 保险赔付将“远高于、远高于”目前计提的 16 亿美元准备金

Berkshire COVID-19 insurance payouts will be "a lot, lot higher" than current reserve of $1.6 billion

贝基·奎克这个追问来自马丁·迪瓦恩。他同时问了阿吉特和沃伦,“你们对伯克希尔因新冠疫情产生的保险索赔敞口的最佳估计是多少?”

BECKY QUICKThis follow-up question is from Martin Devine. And he asks both Ajit and Warren, "What's your best estimate of Berkshire's insurance claim exposure from the COVID-19 pandemic?"

阿吉特·贾恩嗯,从准备金来看,从去年到今年第一季度末,我们计提了大约 16 亿美元的准备金。现在,这个数字没有考虑新冠疫情带来的频率效益,也就是事故减少导致的赔付下降。GEICO 因此获得了巨大的顺风。但就保险业务整体需要支付的支票金额而言,截至现在,这个数字大约是 16 亿美元。我猜这个数字可能还会增长。因为如果你看看——整个行业已经计提了准备金——我们计提了 16 亿,像我说的——整个行业目前为新冠疫情计提了大约 250 亿到 300 亿美元的准备金。如果你相信业内的专家,他们会告诉你这个数字可能接近 1000 亿美元。所以,还有大约 700 到 750 亿美元的疫情损失需要通过保险业的资产负债表和利润表来消化。因此,我们目前 16 亿美元的数字将来会高得多、高得多。但这并不是我们完全无法应对的事情。

AJIT JAINWell, in terms of reserves, starting from last year to the end of the first quarter this year, we have put up a billion-six and change, in terms of reserves. Now, what that doesn't take into account is some of the frequency benefit because of COVID-19 that results because of fewer accidents. And GEICO has had a huge tailwind because of that. But in terms of what the insurance operations collectively are going to be writing checks for, that number, as of now, is about a billion-six. And my guess is that'll probably grow. Because if you look upon it — the industry as a whole has reserved — we reserved 1.6, as I mentioned — the industry as a whole has reserved about 25 to $30 billion for COVID-19 as of now. If you believe the pundits in the industry, they will tell you that number is probably going to be closer to a hundred billion. So, there's another, about 70-75 billion dollars of COVID-19 losses that need to flow through insurance industry's balance sheet and income statement. Our number, therefore, of 1.6 that we have as of now, is going to be a lot, lot higher. But it's not something that we cannot manage completely.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我猜,我们不会跻身保险索赔支付前五名,即使我们——实际上,我们承保的人寿保险和年金金额都要小得多。而且,你知道,最终,我们会——我们的人寿保险索赔会更多。但年金不会持久。更多的人会死亡,否则他们会获得年金付款。这有很多影响。这是——这是——你知道,这是有史以来最伟大的人类灾难之一。但在保险业中,它并不那么大。我想说,如果保险业认为他们会损失 1000 亿美元,那这 1000 亿美元现在就应该记在他们的账上,我是说——(笑)那种逐步计入损失的想法——你有一项负债。我们的目标不是——我们的目标是——当我们认为它发生时计提负债——如果——我们不应该只有 16 亿美元,我想说,如果我们真的认为我们会承担 1000 亿美元的相应份额的话。但——就说到这里吧。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We will not be in the top five payers of, my guess, of insurance claims, even though we're — it's — And we write a much smaller amount of both life insurance and annuities, actually. And, you know, in the end, we get — we had more life insurance claims. But the annuities are not going to last. More people will have died that would have otherwise got payments on their annuities. It cuts a lot of ways. It's — it's a — you know, one of the great human catastrophes of all time. But it is not that big in insurance. And I would say this, if the insurance industry thinks they're going to lose a hundred billion dollars, the hundred billion ought to be up on their books now, I mean — (Laughs) The idea of feeding in losses — you've got a liability. And our goal is not — our goal is to have — put up the liability when we think it's happened, and — If — we should not be at a billion-six, I would say this, if we really think we're going to have some proportional share of a hundred billion. But — But that's enough said on that. (Laughs)

收购堪萨斯城南方铁路不会对 BNSF 产生巨大影响

Kansas City Southern acquisition won't have huge impact on BNSF

贝基·奎克下一个问题是给格雷格的,但也给沃伦和查理。它来自布莱尔·米勒,他问,“堪萨斯城南方铁路与加拿大太平洋铁路公司或加拿大国家铁路公司的合并,对 BNSF 的竞争意味着什么?”以及“你认为合并的协同效应能证明所支付的倍数合理吗?”

BECKY QUICKThis next question is for Greg, but also for Warren and Charlie. It's from Blair Miller, who asks, "What does the combination of Kansas City Southern with either Canadian Pacific or Canadian National mean to BNSF, in terms of competition? "And do you think the synergies of the merger will justify the multiple paid?"

格雷格·阿贝尔好的。显然,我们非常密切关注加拿大国家铁路和加拿大太平洋铁路竞购堪萨斯城南方铁路的交易。这两家公司中任何一家收购堪萨斯城南方铁路都会对 BNSF 产生影响。我们——他们基本上提议的是创建一条从加拿大通往墨西哥的南北向铁路。我们在墨西哥有很强的存在——但不如我们的一些竞争对手强。但我们在那里会感受到竞争。所以,我们会非常密切地跟踪这笔交易。当它提交给地面运输委员会时,适用的标准是必须保护或促进竞争。因此,这是我们代表客户保护我们经济特许权的机会。所以,我们代表某些客户在那里运输进出港口的联运货物。我们希望保护我们客户在那里的权利。因此,我们会在审批过程中积极参与。但毫无疑问,最终它会影响到我们的经济特许权。沃伦?

GREG ABELSure. So, obviously, a transaction we followed very closely with both Canadian National and Canadian Pacific bidding to purchase Kansas City Southern. Either of those companies acquiring Kansas City Southern will have an impact on BNSF. We — what they're basically proposing is to create a north/south railway that goes from Canada into Mexico. We do have a strong presence in Mexico — not as strong as some of our competition. But we would feel competition there. So, we'll follow that transaction very closely. As it goes before the Surface Transportation Board, the standard that will be applied is that competition has to be protected or enhanced. So that's our opportunity to protect our franchise on behalf of our customers. So, we move intermodal business both in and out of there on behalf of certain customers. We'll want to protect the rights of our customers there. So, we'll be active in the approval process. But there's no question, in the end, it impacts our franchise. Warren?

沃伦·巴菲特是的,影响不大。但它对联合太平洋和 BNSF 都有一定程度的影响——相对较小。但这不是地面运输委员会真正担心的事。他们的工作是做对托运人最有利的事。至于支付的价格,就像你说的,如果你能以零利率借到所有钱——零利率——(笑),对人们来说没太大区别。而这笔交易不可能在另一种利率环境下完成。我是说,这很简单。但堪萨斯城南方铁路没什么魔力。它有一条——我认为他们与墨西哥的协议在 2047 年到期。它——运输的车皮数量之类的,不会改变太多。但这挺有意思。只有——有两条主要的加拿大——他们所谓的 I 级铁路。美国有五条。而这将导致,基本上,三个单位是加拿大的,四个是美国的,这不是你通常认为的(笑)美国铁路系统发展的方式。但我们已经谈了很多。而 CP——或者是加拿大太平洋铁路,或者是加拿大国家铁路——很可能会得到它。我认为地面运输委员会会——前几天投票是四比一,是吧?没有——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, it's not huge. But it affects both the Union Pacific and BNSF to a small degree — a relatively small degree. But that's— that's not really the worry of the Surface Transportation Board. Their job is to do what's best for the shippers. And in terms of the price that's being paid, you know, like you say, if you can borrow all the money at nothing — for nothing — you know, (laughs), it doesn't make much difference to people. And this would not be being paid under a different interest rate environment. I mean it's very simple. But it would make — there's no magic to the Kansas City Southern. It's got a — I think their deal with Mexico ends in 2047. It's — it's — you know, it will — the number of carloads carried and everything, it's not going to change that much. But it is kind of interesting. There's only — there's two major Canadian — what they call Class I railroads. And there's five in the United States. And this will result, you know, in essentially, three of the units being Canadian, four being U.S., which is not the way you normally think of (laughs) the way of the development of the railroad system would work in the United States. But it's — you know, we've talked about it plenty. And CP — or either Canadian Pacific or Canadian National — is very likely to get it. I think the Surface Transportation Board will — voted four-to-one, didn't they, the other day? Didn't get —

格雷格·阿贝尔他们投票决定了一个初始信托结构,加拿大太平洋必须得到批准。正如你指出的,沃伦,那是一次四比一的投票。

GREG ABELThey voted on an initial trust structure that they had to approve for Canadian Pacific. And that was a four-to-one vote, as you noted, Warren.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

格雷格·阿贝尔所以,他们正在推进评估。

GREG ABELSo, they're moving forward with the evaluation of it.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。通常,铁路交易需要很长时间来评估。但在这个案例中,我认为他们有两个对立的信托提案。实际上,通过做出一个——如果他们很快做出决定,关于——他们允许哪个信托提案——我看不出怎么能同时允许两个提案。所以,这可能会是一个非常快速的决策,不是——我不知道。但这取决于地面运输委员会,做对他们对国家最有利的事。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. And normally, railroad deals are very long — take a long time for them to evaluate. But in this case, I think they have two opposing trust proposals. And in effect, by making a — if they make a quick decision on the — which trust proposal they allow — I don't see how you allow two proposals, exactly. So, it may be a very accelerated decision, not — I don't know. But it's up to the Surface Transportation Board to do what's best for what their obligation is to the country to do.

贝基·奎克关于这个问题有个追问——

BECKY QUICKThere was a follow-up question on that —

沃伦·巴菲特当然。

WARREN BUFFETTSure.

贝基·奎克——你认为他们支付的估值值得吗?

BECKY QUICK— do you think the valuation that they're paying is worth it?

沃伦·巴菲特呃,我们——只是以一种非常、非常温和的方式参与了一下。我是说,自从我进入铁路行业以来,大家或多或少都琢磨过跟不同的铁路公司谈交易。(笑)所以呢,我们也讨论过。当年加拿大太平洋(CP)那边——亨特·哈里森,就是——他当初——是不是亨特竞购 CP 算是开了个头?然后呢,我们也看过要不要买 CP。我是说,谁都会看看各种机会,而且——这个价钱我们是不会出的。这个出价隐含的 BNSF 估值比联合太平洋现在的市场价还要高。不过,从某种程度上说,这有点像拿游戏币在玩。我的意思是,利率这么低的时候,我敢肯定,从 CP 和加拿大国家铁路(CN)的角度来看,堪萨斯城南方铁路就这一家。他们没别的地方可以扩张——他们买不了我们,也买不了联合太平洋。于是大家的劲头就上来了,价格也涨上去了,然后——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we — in a very, very mild way. I mean, everybody's kind of played at making deals with different railroads, you know, ever since I've been in the railroad business. (Laughs) So, you know, we've talked about it. When CP — when Hunter Harrison or — you know, came after — was it Hunter that bid on CP that kind of led the way? And, you know, we looked at buying CP. I mean, everybody looks at everything, and — We would not pay this price. And it implies a price for BNSF that's even higher than what the UP is selling for. But, you know, it's kind of play money, to some degree. I mean when interest rates are this low, and I'm sure from the standpoint of both CP and CN, there's only one KC Southern. And they're not going to get a chance to expand — they're not going to buy us, they're not going to buy the UP. And the juices flow, and the prices go up, and —

查理·芒格他们是在用别人的钱来买。

CHARLIE MUNGERThey're buying it with somebody else's money.

沃伦·巴菲特对,是别人的钱。而且你快要退休了——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, it's somebody else's money. And you're going to retire —

查理·芒格对。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.

沃伦·巴菲特——五年或十年之内就退休了。以后人们不会记得你当初付了多少钱,但他们会记得你有没有建起一个更大的体系。而投资银行家在你每一步动作的时候都在旁边给你鼓劲。你明白吧,他们会说你可以出更高的价,这是——你明白吧,他们来回摆弄数字,电子表格摊开来,费用滚滚而来。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETT— in five or 10 years. And people are not going to remember what you paid, but they're going to remember whether you built a larger system. And the investment bankers are cheering you on at every move. You know, they're saying you could pay more, and this is the — you know, and they're moving the figures around, the spreadsheets are out, and the fees are flowing. (Laughs)

成功的收购自然会变成公司业务中占比更大的部分

Successful acquisitions naturally become a bigger part of the business

贝基·奎克这个问题来自布鲁克林的阿舍·哈夫特(Asher Haft),他说——阿舍从 2006 年就是股东了。他说他很欣赏你解释那些代价高昂的错误时的诚实与坦率。“在今年的董事长信中,你谈到自己在 2016 年估算精密铸件公司未来平均盈利时犯了一个错误,导致伯克希尔为收购它支付了过高的价格。看起来,精密铸件公司的盈利在 2020 年因疫情以及航空和旅行行业的冲击而大幅下滑。如果 2016 年你换一种估算方式,有没有可能改变你收购它的决定?其次,精密铸件公司当前面临的问题,是不是比疫情本身更大?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Asher Haft in Brooklyn, who says — Asher's been a shareholder since 2006. Says that he appreciates your honestly and candidness when it comes to explaining costly errors you made. "In this year's chairman letter, you discussed that you made a mistake in 2016 when calculating Precision Castpart's average amount of future earnings, which resulted in Berkshire overpaying to acquire it. "It appears that Precision's earnings declined substantially in 2020 because of the pandemic and the effect of airline and travel industry. What calculations could you have made in 2016 that might have altered your decision to acquire it? And secondly, are the problems Precision is currently facing larger than the pandemic?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,伯克希尔没有犯这个错误,是我犯了错误,顺便说一下。(笑)不,任何时候我们考虑收购一家企业,我们都在评估业务的竞争优势、我们必须支付的价格、我们得到的管理层等等。我们在管理层方面没有犯错。但就平均盈利能力而言,你知道——当波音公司遇到 Max 问题时,那是个概率事件。我是说,任何时候,任何大客户——我是说,各种事情都可能发生。我们看到了其中一些事情发生了。因此,相对于平均收益,我付了太多钱。这是一家很棒的公司。而且,你知道,我对管理层和一切都很满意,但是——通用电气不需要我们认为的那么多发动机。(笑)他们又进入电力业务,等等各种事情。我们知道他们在这些业务中。但我们没想到,当其他业务——我们收购的其他公司有时最终表现比我们预期要好时,这些业务会处于接近萧条的状态。但我们会继续犯错误。我的意思是——我不应该说我们会——是我会。但即使是这些其他——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, Berkshire didn't make the mistake, I made the mistake, incidentally. (Laughs) No, any time we look at buying a business, we're evaluating the competitive strengths of the business, the price we have to pay, the management we get and everything. And we didn't make a mistake on the management. But in terms of the earning power, on average, and, you know — when Boeing has troubles with the Max, well, that's a probability. I mean, any time, any customers of big — I mean, all kinds of things can happen. And we have seen some of those things happen. And therefore, I paid too much, in relation to average earnings. It's a terrific company. And, you know, it's — I'm happy with the management and everything, and — But GE doesn't need as many engines as we thought they would need. (Laughs) And they get into the power business, and a variety of things. And we knew they were in the businesses. But we did not think those businesses would necessarily be in something close to a depression when other businesses are — that we bought end up, sometimes, doing better than we think. But we'll continue making mistakes. I mean — and I shouldn't say we will — I will. But even these other —

查理·芒格我们剩下的人会帮忙的。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERThe rest of us will help. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特而且我们——你知道,我们做成过一些相当漂亮的交易,也做过一些很糟糕的交易。这事的好处是——正如我指出的,这点其实不适用于精密铸件的具体情况——当我们对一项业务感到失望时,它随着时间的推移,自然会在我们的业务组合中占比越来越小,因为它本身没什么发展。而当我们收获一项成功的业务时,比如像 GEICO 那样的——GEICO 现在——它们现在的业务规模是我们在 19————取得控股权时的 15 倍——它在我们整个组合里就会变成一个占比大得多的重要组成部分。所以,你确实会通过一种自然而然的力量,让越来越多的钱流向那些实际发展比你当初预想更好的东西。你最终会更集中于那些真正跑出来了的业务。这不像——查理会说,这不像养孩子。我是说——(笑)不争气的那个——不争气的孩子反而让你更头疼。(笑)但在这个——在商业的孩子当中,小的那些呢——顺便提一句,我和查理起步时只有三家业务。伯克希尔是做纺织的,多元零售公司是一家百货商店,印花票是蓝筹印花的业务。这就是我们拼在一起的三家公司。而这三家最初的业务全都失败了。这多少让我对那些担心“难道我们不知道煤炭有一天终将被淘汰?”的人感到有点意思。(笑)我们当然知道煤炭会——你知道的,但这并不意味着我们公司会被淘汰。我的意思是——每家企业在那个意义上,都有一些需要思量的事情。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd we'll — you know, we've got some wonderful deals, and some terrible deals. And the nice thing about it is — as I pointed out, this doesn't really apply in the case of Precision, precisely — but when we're disappointed in a business, it usually becomes a smaller and smaller percentage of our business, just by the nature of things, because it isn't going anyplace. And when we get a successful business, like a GEICO or something of the sort — GEICO's doing — they're doing 15 times as much business as when we bought control in 19 — they become a proportionally much more important part of our mix. So, you really get, through just natural forces, you get more of your money in the things that have developed more favorably than you thought. You actually end up getting a greater concentration in the ones that work out. It's not like — as Charlie would say, it's not like having children. I mean — (Laughs) The one that — the bad ones cause you more problems. (Laughs) But the — in this — in the children of businesses, the small ones kind of — by the way, we started with three businesses, Charlie and I. And Berkshire was textiles, Diversified Retailing was a department store, and trading stamps were Blue Chip's business. And those were the three companies we put together. And all three of the original businesses failed. Which sort of gets me, in terms of the people that are worried about, don't we know that coal is going to be phased out over time? (Laughs) Of course, we know coal's going to be — you know, but that doesn't mean we're going to be phased out over time. I mean that — Every business has some things to think about, about that way.

任何企业最大的“风险因素”是用错了管理层

Top "risk factor" for any business is getting the wrong management

沃伦·巴菲特最大的危险——招股说明书里有那个部分,叫什么来着?关于——某种——

WARREN BUFFETTThe biggest danger — they have that section in the prospectus called, what do they call that? About — certain —

格雷格·阿贝尔风险因素。

GREG ABELRisk factors.

阿吉特·贾恩风险因素。

AJIT JAINRisk factors.

沃伦·巴菲特风险因素,对。头号风险因素——你从来没见过它——头号风险因素是这家公司招错了管理层。你弄了个家伙或女人来管事,他们挺有人缘,董事们喜欢他们。他们根本不懂自己在干什么,但知道怎么装样子。这是生意最大的单一危险——那个人在位子上干上 10 年或 15 年,要么待在纺织行业或百货商店行业里,要么就拼命扩张。(笑)你知道,我看过很多生意。那才是头号问题的根源。而这不是那种律师让他们列出来的东西。

WARREN BUFFETTRisk factors, yeah. The number one risk factor — you never see it — the number one risk factor is that this business gets the wrong management. And you get a guy or a woman in charge of it that are — they're personable, the directors like them. They don't know what they're doing, but they know how to put on an appearance. That's the biggest single danger that a business — and that that person stays and runs it for 10 or 15 years, and either stays in the textile business or department store business and expands. (Laughs) And, you know, I've looked at a lot of businesses. And that's what's caused the number one problem. And it isn't the kind of thing where they list them all because the lawyers tell them to list them.

巴菲特学着政客的样子,绕开了比特币问题

Buffett follows politician's lead and dodges Bitcoin question

贝基·奎克这个问题来自 Raghu Baichwal,同时提给沃伦和查理。“既然整个加密市场总市值达到了 2 万亿美元,你们还认为加密货币是毫无价值的人造黄金吗?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Raghu Baichwal, and it's for both Warren and Charlie. "Now that the crypto market overall is valued at $2 trillion, do you still consider cryptos as worthless artificial gold?"

沃伦·巴菲特(笑)嗯,我就知道会有人问比特币或加密货币的问题。我心想,好吧,我看那些政客们无时无刻不在回避问题。我总觉得他们那样做挺恶心的,但实话实说,这个问题我打算回避,(笑)因为可能有几十万人在看这个直播,他们持有比特币,另外大概有两个人是做空的。所以,我们面临的选择是让 40 万人对我们恼火、不高兴,或者让两个人开心。这根本就是个愚蠢的算式。于是我想了一下。我们内布拉斯加州以前有一位州长——那是很久以前的事了——他被人问到棘手问题时,比如“你怎么看财产税?”或者“学校该怎么办?”,他会直视着那个人说:“那个我没问题!”(笑声)然后他就走开了。嗯,那个我没问题,说不定我们看看查理怎么样。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETT(Laughs) Well, I knew there'd be a question on Bitcoin or crypto. And I thought to myself, well, I've watched these politicians dodge questions all the time, you know. And I always find it kind of disgusting when they do it, but the truth is, I'm going to dodge that question, (laughs), because we've probably got hundreds of thousands of people watching this that own bitcoin, and we've probably got two people that are short. So, we got a choice of making 400,000 people mad at us and unhappy and — or making two people happy. And that's just a dumb equation. So, I thought about it. We had a governor one time in Nebraska — a long time ago — but he would get a tough question, you know, what do you think about property taxes? Or, you know, what should we do about schools? And he'd look right at the person and he'd say, "I'm all right on that one!" (Laughter) And then he'd just walk off. Well, I'm all right on that one, and maybe we'll see how Charlie is. (Laughs)

芒格:“我当然憎恨比特币的成功”

Munger: "Of course, I hate the Bitcoin success"

查理·芒格嗯,那些了解我的人现在就是在公牛面前挥舞红旗。(笑声)我当然憎恨比特币的成功。我不欢迎一种对绑匪、敲诈者之类那么有用的货币,也不喜欢把额外多出来的几十亿、几百亿美元,就那么凭空甩给一个凭空发明了某种新金融产品的人。因此,我想我该谦虚地说,我认为这整个该死的发展令人作呕,而且违背文明利益。批评的话就让别人去说吧。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, those who know me well are just waving the red flag at the bull. (Laughter) Of course, I hate the Bitcoin success. And I don't welcome a currency that's so useful to kidnappers and extortionists and so forth, nor do I like just shoveling out a few extra billions and billions and billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air. So, I think I should say modestly that I think the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interest of civilization. And I'll leave the criticism to others. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特那个我没问题!(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTI'm all right on that one! (Laughter)

我们在德州的能源方案未必最好,但比马斯克的强

Our Texas energy proposal may not be the best, but it's better than Musk's

贝基·奎克下一个问题——或者说下一组问题——来自 James Hernandez。他有两个问题,一个给阿吉特,一个给格雷格。都跟埃隆·马斯克有关。格雷格,这个问题是问你的。“埃隆·马斯克表示,伯克希尔·哈撒韦在德州斥资超过 90 亿美元新建发电容量的方案是错误的。马斯克先生主张,通过电池储能进行负荷平衡才是正确做法。你能解释一下,为什么伯克希尔哈撒韦能源(BHE)的方案对(格雷格·)阿博特州长和德州来说是更优选择?具体来说,与马斯克先生提出的方案相比,德州民众能多节省多少钱?”

BECKY QUICKThe next question that comes in — or the next series of questions — are from James Hernandez. He has two questions, one for Ajit and one for Greg. They both concern Elon Musk. For Greg, this question is for you. "Elon Musk has stated that Berkshire Hathaway's energy proposal for Texas, spending more than $9 billion for new generating capacity, is wrong. Instead, Mr. Musk argues that load balancing using battery storage is the appropriate course of action. "Can you explain why the BHE proposal is the better course of action for Governor (Greg) Abbott and the state of Texas? Specifically, what amount of savings can the citizens of Texas expect above and beyond what Mr. Musk is proposing?"

格雷格·阿贝尔好的。显然,今年二月德州发生了非常不幸的事件,前后持续了四天。许多人失去了生命,经济损失极为惨重。德州已指出,在那期间遭受的损失在 800 亿到 1300 亿美元之间。我认为,回顾整个电力行业,它从根本上辜负了民众,没有达到民众的期望。而当它真的提供电力时,价格又极其昂贵。民众承担了数十上百亿美元的能源成本,相当于正常价格的 10 倍左右——在那四天里,他们支付的能源成本是过去一整年的 10 倍。所以,这对德州是一起非常重大的事件。我们带着自认为不错的解决方案去了德州,花了大量时间整合方案,理清背后的根本问题。我们的方案实际上基于一个事实:德州人民的健康与安全当时面临风险。我们需要为他们提供一种行之有效的保险机制——如果他们在极短时间内需要电力,电力就能立即调度过去,并在那四天里持续供应;实际上,我们提议可以连续供应七天。我们方案的根本理念始终是:如果有人提出了更好的方案,我们就完成了使命。我们真的只是——这是我们能想到的最佳方案或选项。显然,如果德州,或者埃隆,或其他人提出了更好的主张,我们一直都说,德州,你就该去采纳。我们坚信,目前我们手上——留下的是一个对德州非常不错的方案,它还会继续被讨论和评估。电池方案和我们方案最大的区别在于,我们能够提供连续七天不间断的发电电力,而如果采用电池方案,你或许能释放出储存了四个小时的电力。但我们面对的是持续四天的问题,而不是四个小时。这完全是不同的成本等式和解决方案。所以,我为我们团队拿出了这样一个我认为非常独特的方案感到相当自豪。我们与供应商以及彼得·基维特父子公司一起努力,敲定了一个我们相信是固定的造价,并且能在 2023 年 11 月之前交付。所以再次重申,我们给出了确定日期——不幸的是,它赶不上下一个冬天,也赶不上今年夏天。但它是一个有价值的方案,至少我们希望它能引导出正确的讨论,并为该州找到正确的长期解决方案。

GREG ABELSure. So the — obviously, there is the very unfortunate event in Texas in February. And it basically lasted four days. Many lives were lost. The economic damage was significant. Texas has highlighted that anywhere from 80 to $130 billion in incurred losses over that period of time. I think when you look at the power sector, it fundamentally let the citizens down. It didn't perform as they expected. And then when it did perform, it was extremely expensive. They incurred billions and billions of dollars of energy costs versus a multiple of, basically, 10 times what they paid — they paid 10 times in energy costs over those four days what they paid in the past year. So, a very substantial event for Texas. We've gone to Texas with what we believe is a good solution. We spent a lot of time pulling it together, understanding the fundamental issues around it. And our proposal is really based upon the fact that the health and welfare of Texans were at risk. And we needed to have, effectively, an insurance policy in place for them — that if they needed the power on very short notice, it would be able to be dispatched and it would be there for the four days — we're actually proposing it could be there for seven days. And the fundamental concept of our proposal has always been, if there's a better proposal that's brought forward, we've accomplished our mission. We've just been really there to — it's the best proposal or option we could come up with. And obviously if Texas or Elon or someone else comes up with a better proposition, we've always said, Texas, you should pursue it. We strongly believe right now we have — what remains is a very good proposal for Texas. And it will continue to be discussed and evaluated. The big difference between a battery proposal and our proposal is that we will have power that can be generated continuously for seven consistent days, where if you went to a battery solution, you may release that power that's been stored for four hours. But we're talking four days of a problem, not four hours. And it's just a completely different cost equation and solution. So, very proud that our teams brought forward what I thought was a very unique solution. We've worked hard with our suppliers and Peter Kiewit & Sons to put together what we believe is a firm cost that can also be delivered by November of '23. So again, we put a firm date on — it won't be ready next winter, unfortunately. It won't be ready this summer. But it's a valuable solution and one that we hope, at least, leads to the right discussion and the right long-term solution for the state.

沃伦·巴菲特是的,而且我们还愿意拿出 40 亿美元——如果我们说好的交付时间没能兑现,这笔钱基本上就作为罚金付掉。你知道,我们去找了基威特,找了通用电气,问他们,我们最快能什么时候拿到涡轮机。你明白,要是你想为 2023 年做好准备,必须很快就开始行动。而且现在还赶上了通货膨胀。基威特不会在一个月内就对我们变卦。我们也并不急于把所有合同都写得面面俱到。但他们已经有上百人在忙活这个项目了——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, and we're also willing to put up $4 billion that if we don't deliver when we say we're going to deliver, we'll pay it as a penalty, basically. You know, we went to Kiewit, we went to General Electric and said, you know, how long can we get turbines in the — you know. You know, if you're going to be prepared for 2023, you have to start at a point fairly soon. And you have inflation going on. And Kiewit's not going to change things on us in a month. We don't try to get the contracts all written out. But they had a hundred people working on it or —

格雷格·阿贝尔对,他们有好几百人在忙——(笑)

GREG ABELYeah, they have hundreds working on it — (Laughs)

沃伦·巴菲特是的。而且,你知道,GE 很配合,什么都好——但这不代表我们拿出的就是最好的方案。我们只知道我们能做什么。如果有人能做得更快、成本更低,那再好不过。但是,如果他们没做到,就应该承担相应的损失,我是说——我们会用 40 亿美元来担保我们的承诺。而且里面不会塞任何“如果这样或那样,我们就不付钱”的小把戏条款。但再过一年,我们就没法这样做了。我是说,一年后我们也可以做,但用的会是那时的成本,而且项目还得再往后推一年。不过我们希望德州——德州是个做生意的好地方。我们在那里有很多业务。BNSF 的总部就在那里,那是个非常棒的地方。这次事件是突如其来,但不管怎样——公用事业的本质就是你得——你必须为那些很可能不会发生的事做好准备。(笑)你总不会想说,好吧,这是三十年一遇的事件,然后眼看着有人死去。我是说,所以——你希望——你需要有一个安全边际。我们有一个解决方案,其他人可能有其他方案。不管哪种方案最终落地,我们都会欢呼。如果用的是我们的方案,欢呼声会稍微更响亮一些。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. And, you know, and GE's cooperative and everything — But it doesn't mean we have the best solution. We just know what we can do. And if anybody can do it faster, they can do it cheaper, you know, whatever, that's terrific. But they should have something to lose, though, if they don't do it, I mean — And we will back our promise up by $4 billion, which — You know, and we won't have any rinky-dink clauses in there that if this happens or that happens, we don't pay. But we won't be able to do that a year from now. I mean, we can do it a year from now with the cost then from what they are then, and then it will be a year further out. But we want Texas — Texas is a terrific place to do business. We do a lot of business there. It's where BNSF has its headquarters. And it's a great place. And this was out of the blue, but one way or another — the nature of utility business is that you got to — you have to be prepared for something that probably isn't going to happen. (Laughs) You know, you don't want to say, well, it's a one in 30-year event, you know, and people die. I mean, so — You want — you want a margin of safety in it. And we've got one solution and other people may have other solutions. And we will cheer when a solution is reached of any kind. And we will cheer a little louder if it's ours. (Laughs)

巴菲特开玩笑说,是否承保埃隆·马斯克的火星任务取决于保费

Buffett jokes that decision to insure a Elon Musk mission to Mars would depend on the premium

贝基·奎克阿吉特,这位先生问你的问题。“假设出现这样一个场景:沃伦·巴菲特打电话给你,告诉你埃隆·马斯克联系了他,想为他的火星计划以及随后的殖民计划买一份保险。具体来说,他想为他的 SpaceX 重型火箭太空舱、有效载荷和人力资本投保。你会承保这类风险业务的任何一部分吗?”

BECKY QUICKAjit, your question from this gentleman. "Suppose the hypothetical situation arises where Warren Buffett calls you on the phone to tell you that Elon Musk has contacted him about writing an insurance policy on his proposed mission to, and subsequent colonization of, Mars. "Specifically, he wants insurance to insure his SpaceX heavy rocket capsule, payload, and human capital. Would you underwrite any portion of a venture like that?"

阿吉特·贾恩这个问题简单。不了,谢谢。我跳过。(笑声)

AJIT JAINThis is an easy one. No, thank you. I'll pass. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,要我说,这取决于保费。(笑声)而且我想说,我给出的费率很可能得看埃隆本人是否上船。我的意思是,你知道——(笑声)不,这差别很大。如果有人找你投保什么东西,你懂的。(笑)所以,我会——这叫风险共担——但如果——你懂的。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I would say it would depend on the premium. (Laughter) And I would say that I would probably have a somewhat different rate if Elon was on board or not on board. I mean, you know — (Laughter) No, it makes a difference. I mean, if somebody's asking to insure something, you know. (Laughs) So, I would — that's called getting skin in the game and — but if — you know. (Laughter)

阿吉特·贾恩但总的来说,只要交易对手是埃隆·马斯克,要我去承保这种保单,我都会非常担心。

AJIT JAINBut in general, I would be very concerned about writing an insurance policy where Elon Musk is on the other side.

贝基·奎克好的。

BECKY QUICKOK.

沃伦·巴菲特告诉埃隆打给我,别打给阿吉特。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTTell Elon to call me instead of Ajit. (Laughter)

“所有人都在找”不需要太多资本的企业

"Everybody's looking" for businesses that don't need much capital

贝基·奎克这个问题来自加州的迈克尔·刘。这是给沃伦和查理的。“你在致股东信中提到,最佳投资回报来自那些用最少资产经营高利润业务的公司。在当今世界,这类公司很多是软件驱动的。过去伯克希尔一直回避投资高增长科技公司,但你们对苹果和 Snowflake 的投资似乎表明这一点正在慢慢改变。作为股东,我们是否应该预期,随着托德和泰德在投资决策过程中扮演更大角色,高利润业务将逐渐占伯克希尔投资组合更大的比重?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Michael Liu from California. This is for both Warren and Charlie. "In your shareholder letter, you mention that the best investment results come from the companies that require minimum assets to conduct high-margin businesses. "In today's world, many of these companies tend to be software-driven businesses. While Berkshire has avoided investing in high-growth technology companies in the past, this appears to be slowly changing with your investments in Apple and Snowflake. "As shareholders, should we expect that high-margin businesses will begin to constitute a larger proportion of Berkshire's investment portfolio over time, particularly as (portfolio managers) Todd (Combs) and Ted (Weschler) take on larger roles in the investment decision process?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们一直都知道,梦想中的企业是那种占用资本极少(笑)而且增长很快的公司。苹果、谷歌、微软和 Facebook 就是绝佳的例子。我是说,苹果有 370 亿美元的物业厂房设备,你知道。伯克希尔有大概 1700 亿之类的,而他们赚的钱会比我们多得多。他们的生意比我们好得多。所以——微软的生意也比我们的好得多。谷歌的生意也好得多。所以我们一直在找——我们早就知道这一点。1972 年我们从喜诗糖果那里就学到了。我是说,喜诗糖果不需要太多资本。它没有——你知道,它显然有几个制造工厂——他们叫厨房——但它没有大量库存,除了季节性的一小段时期。它没有多少应收账款。所以,你知道,这类企业——它们是最好的企业。但它们也卖得最贵。而且这样的企业不多。它们也不总能一直保持这样。所以我们一直在找。我们有一些相当不错的。但我们的(笑)没有那些大块头那么大。但这就是所有人都在找的。资本主义就是这样。人们想获得资本回报。(笑)而获得回报的方式就是拥有不需要太多资本的东西。我是说,如果你必须投入大量资本——公用事业就是这样。这不是超高回报的生意。你只是必须投入大量资本。你获得资本回报,但不会是惊人的回报。你不会得到谷歌那样的回报,或者任何类似的。你知道,我们在得克萨斯那笔交易中提出的回报——我觉得是 9.3%,对吧——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we've always known that the dream business is the one that takes very little capital (laughs) and grows a lot. And — and Apple and Google and Microsoft and Facebook are terrific examples of that. I mean, Apple has $37 billion in property plant equipment, you know. Berkshire has 170 billion or something like that, and they're going to make a lot more money than we do. They're in better — it's a much better business than we have. And so — and Microsoft's business is a way better business than we have. Google's business is a way better business, so — We've always looked — we've known that a long time. We found that out with See's Candy in 1972. I mean, See's Candy just doesn't require that much capital. It doesn't have — you know, it has, obviously, a couple of manufacturing plants — they call them kitchens, and — But it doesn't have big inventories, except very seasonably for a short period. It doesn't have a lot of receivables. So, you know, those are the kinds of businesses — they're the best businesses. But they command the best prices, too. And there aren't that many of them. And they don't always stay that way, so — We're looking for them all the time. And we've got — we've got a few that are pretty darn good. But we don't have anything as big (laughs) as the big guys. But that's what everybody's looking for. That's what capitalism is about. People getting a return on capital. (Laughs) And the way you get it is having something that doesn't take too much capital. I mean, if you have to really put out tons and tons of capital — utility business is that way. It's not a super-high return business. You just have to put out a lot of capital. You get a return on that capital, but you don't get fabulous return. You don't get Google-like returns, you know, or anything remotely close to it. You know, we're proposing a return in the transaction — the proposition with Texas — I think it's 9.3%, isn't it —

格雷格·阿贝尔对,9.3——

GREG ABELYeah, 9.3 —

沃伦·巴菲特对,你知道,但如果你看看大多数美国企业净有形资产的回报率,那远高于 9.3%。但它们也不是公用事业。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, and you know, that — but if you look at the return on most American businesses on net tangible assets, it's a lot higher than 9.3. But they aren't utility businesses, either.

贝基·奎克查理,你想补充点什么吗?

BECKY QUICKCharlie, did you want to add anything to that?

查理·芒格不了,谢谢。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, thank you.

贝基·奎克好的。

BECKY QUICKOK.

为什么投资经理托德·康姆斯和泰德·韦施勒不回答股东提问

Why portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler don't answer shareholder questions

贝基·奎克这个问题来自纽约市的瑞安·富萨罗,他说:“(投资经理)托德(康姆斯)和泰德(韦施勒)这些年越来越多地承担了伯克希尔的职责,管理更大的资本池,包括公司庞大的苹果持仓,参与并购策略,甚至监督公司与亚马逊和摩根大通现已关闭的医疗合作。我们感谢他们的付出。但每年股东大会上,托德和泰德仍然不面对股东。鉴于他们对公司越来越重要,你能谈谈这个政策吗?未来几年我们是否能期待更多听到他们的声音?”

BECKY QUICKThis question is from Ryan Fusaro in New York City, who says, "(Portfolio managers) Todd (Combs) and Ted (Weschler) have taken on increased responsibility at Berkshire over the years, managing larger pools of capital, including the company's sizable Apple holdings, participating in M&A strategy, and even overseeing the company's now shuttered health care partnership with Amazon and JPMorgan. "We are grateful for their efforts. But Todd and Ted are still not made available to shareholders at the annual meeting each year. Given their growing importance to the firm, can you discuss this policy and whether we can expect to hear from them more in the coming years?"

沃伦·巴菲特他们两个都非常出色。这也是我不想让别人盘问他们股票的原因之一。(笑声)他们是伯克希尔的资产。而且——没理由让他们出去教别人怎么跟我们竞争。你不会——人们总是很傻地期望——他们不会期望默克或辉瑞之类公司告诉他们科学家在做什么,(笑)你知道,进展到哪了,有什么失败已经排除了。而且,你知道——如果你有善于评估企业的天赋——那两位已经远远超出这个——他们是了不起的资产,他们热爱伯克希尔,工作时间非常长。但我们确实不想让他们到处被人问为什么喜欢这个行业胜过那个行业(笑)或诸如此类的问题。

WARREN BUFFETTThey're both absolutely terrific. And that's one reason I don't want people quizzing them on stocks. (Laughter) They are assets to Berkshire. And just — There's no reason for them to be out educating other people on how to compete with us. You wouldn't — it always seems so silly that people expect — they don't expect you to — they don't expect Merck or Pfizer or something to tell them exactly what their scientists are working on, (laughs) you know, and where they stand and what the failures have been so they can eliminated those. And, you know — If you've got talent that knows how to evaluate businesses — and those two fellows have been — they've gone far beyond that — they're terrific assets, and they love Berkshire, and they work extraordinary hours. But we don't really want them going around with people asking them questions about why you like this industry better than that (laughs) industry or anything of the sort.

芒格:“中国政府会让企业蓬勃发展”

Munger: "The Chinese government will allow businesses to flourish"

贝基·奎克这个问题是给查理的。来自亚特兰大的斯蒂芬·特德。他做了十年伯克希尔股东,说:“你和你的朋友李录一直对中国投资机会非常乐观。比亚迪自 2008 年首次买入以来,为伯克希尔带来了惊人表现,目前价值 58 亿美元。《每日邮报》最近在阿里巴巴创始人马云被中国共产党批评、他另一家公司蚂蚁集团 IPO 受阻后,大举买入了阿里巴巴。你目前对中国怎么看?共产党领导层是否会在未来几十年允许有强有力领导的企业蓬勃发展?”

BECKY QUICKThis question's for Charlie. It comes from Stephen Tedder in Atlanta. He's been a Berkshire shareholder for 10 years and says, "You and your friend Li Lu have been very optimistic with respect to investing opportunities in China. "BYD has performed spectacularly for Berkshire since its initial purchase in 2008 and it's currently valued at $5.8 billion. "The Daily Journal recently bought a large position in Alibaba after founder Jack Ma had been reprimanded by the Chinese Communist Party and Ma's other company, Ant, was not allowed to proceed with its IPO. "What are your current thoughts on China and whether the communist leaders will allow businesses with strong leadership to flourish in decades to come?"

查理·芒格嗯,我认为中国政府会让企业蓬勃发展。这是世界历史上最了不起的事情之一——一群坚定的共产主义者看着新加坡等地的繁荣,说管他呢,我们不要继续穷下去。我们要复制有效的东西。他们改变了共产主义。他们只是接受了亚当·斯密,并将其加入他们的共产主义,说我们现在有了中国特色社会主义,也就是中国拥有自由市场,有一堆亿万富翁之类的。他们做出了这种转变。他们值得很多赞誉。这方面,沃伦和我在很多情况下可没他们那么善于改变主意。(笑)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think that the Chinese government will allow businesses to flourish. It was one of the most remarkable things that ever happened in the history of the world, when a bunch of committed communists just looked at the prosperity of places like Singapore and said the hell with this, we're not going to stay here in poverty. We're going to copy what works. And they changed communism. They just accepted Adam Smith and added it to their communism and said now we have communism with Chinese characteristics, which is China with a free market with a bunch of billionaires and so forth. And they made that shift. They deserve a lot of credit. Warren and I are not quite as good at that as changing our minds, in many cases. (Laughs)

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格而且从那样的地方能发生这种转变,非同寻常。当然,这招确实大获成功。普通中国人的平均收入出现了巨大增长。他们让 8 亿人快速摆脱了贫困。世界历史上从没有过这样的事情。所以,我向中国人脱帽致敬。我认为他们会继续允许人们赚钱。他们学会了这招管用。中国人——我喜欢那位(中国领导人邓小平)一开始说的那句话:“不管黑猫白猫,抓到老鼠就是好猫。”我就喜欢这种话。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd that was a remarkable change coming from such a place. And, of course, it's worked like gangbusters. That is enormous growth in the average income of the average Chinese. They've lifted 800 million people out of poverty. Fast. There was never anything like it in the history of the world. So, my hat is off to the Chinese. And I think they will continue to allow people to make money. They learned it works. The Chinese — I loved what the guy (Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping) said in the first place. "I don't care whether the cat is black and white as long as it catches mice." That's my kind of talk.

沃伦·巴菲特在那份 20 家最有价值公司的榜单上——刚才提到的——有三家是中国公司。如果你展望 30 年,你觉得会有多少家是中国公司?我猜会更多。但我不认为会超过美国。谁知道呢?他们所取得的成就确实令人惊叹。

WARREN BUFFETTIn that list of the 20 most valuable companies that just — three are Chinese. Now if you're looking out 30 years, you know, how many do you think will be Chinese? My guess is more. But I don't think it will top the United States. But who knows? It's amazing what has been accomplished.

查理·芒格是啊,确实相当令人惊叹。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, it's really amazing.

沃伦·巴菲特而且他们找到了管用的方法。我是说,(笑)没有什么比找到管用的方法更能让理念随时间不断自我强化了。我们拭目以待。但我打赌会超过三家。不过我也要打赌,美国拥有的数量还是会比中国多。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd they found what works. I mean, there's (laugh) nothing like finding something that works in order to, sort of, reinforce ideas over time. And we'll see what happens. But I would bet there will be more than three. But I will bet the United States has more than China has, too.

“我们不知道”拜登的 1.9 万亿刺激计划是否会引发通胀

"We don't know" if Biden's $1.9B stimulus plan would cause inflation

贝基·奎克这个问题来自蒂姆·梅德利——(咳嗽)——抱歉——密西西比州杰克逊市的蒂姆·梅德利,他从 1987 年起就是伯克希尔的股东。他写道:“3 月 19 日,德高望重的经济学家、哈佛大学前校长、奥巴马总统任内的财政部长拉里·萨默斯,批评了乔·拜登总统的 1.9 万亿美元美国救援刺激计划。他在接受彭博电视采访时说:‘我更担心的是我们会面临更多通胀,或者我们会遭遇一场相当剧烈的财政与货币碰撞。这远远超出了必要的范围。’他还说:‘这是过去 40 年来最不负责任的宏观经济政策。’你怎么看?”

BECKY QUICKThis one comes from Tim Medley — (coughs) — Sorry — Tim Medley in Jackson, Mississippi, who's been a Berkshire shareholder since 1987. He writes, "On March 19th, respected economist Larry Summers, the former president of Harvard University and the former secretary of the treasury under President Obama, was critical of President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue stimulus plan. "In an interview with Bloomberg television he said, 'I am much more worried that we will have more inflation or that we will have a pretty dramatic fiscal monetary collision. This goes way beyond what is necessary.' He said also, 'This is the least responsible macroeconomic policy we've had in the last 40 years.' Your thoughts?"

沃伦·巴菲特你让我回答这个?(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTYou're asking me on that? (Laughs)

贝基·奎克他没写具体问谁。所以,我猜台上的任何人都可以回答——

BECKY QUICKHe didn't write to whom. So, I guess it's anybody on the stage —

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我会——我想说拉里一直在读他伯父的书(笑),他伯父是保罗·萨缪尔森。但不开玩笑,我认为——拉里是个非常、非常、非常聪明的人。他是在列出各种可能性,实际上自他 3 月 19 日发表那番话以来——不管那天具体是几号——这些可能性的讨论声可能已经比他那时又多了几分。经济学里你不可能只做一件事。如果我们真能不断推出越来越多的债务,而持有成本又变得很低——人们曾认为日本做不到后来他们做到的那些事。但你知道——他们——在所罗门(兄弟)那里,日本债券过去被称为“寡妇制造者”。很多人做空日本债券,但——答案是,我们不知道,但拉里的观点是一个重要的观点。而且在我看来——很可能——和相反立场的观点一样有道理。我们不知道现行政策会带来什么后果。我们确实知道,正如(美联储主席)杰伊·鲍威尔前几天所言,那种认为债务占 GDP 100% 就是个什么极端危险水平的观念,现在其实已不太说得通了,而这在过去几乎是公认的常识。我们已经认识到,以前以为正确的很多东西并不成立。但我们还没认识到的是(笑),我们现在做的事是否正确。最好的做法是承认自己不知道,然后以这样一种方式推进:无论发生什么,你都能得到一个不错的结果。这正是我们在伯克希尔·哈撒韦尝试去做的。我们不认为靠宏观经济预测能赚到钱。我们确实认为——我们确实能相当、相当有把握——即便在那些不会让结果最大化的政策下,只要我们还能做那种事的话,我们也相当有把握能得到一个合理的结果。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I would — I would say that Larry's been reading his uncle's book (laughs), which was Paul Samuelson. But no, I think — Larry is a very, very, very smart fellow. And he's laying out possibilities, which actually now have probably been voiced a little more even since that March 19th — whatever date it was — that he made that — it's — You can't just do one thing in economics. And if we really could shovel out more and more debt, and the carrying cost turned out to be something very low — People thought Japan couldn't do what they've done. But they — you know — they — it used to be called the widow-maker around Salomon (Brothers). And people were shorting Japanese bonds, but — The answer is, we don't know, but Larry's view is an important view. And it's just as good as — in my — probably — the view on the other side might be. We don't know what happens from the present policies. We do know, as (Federal Reserve Chair) Jay Powell said the other day, the idea that a hundred percent of GDP was some terribly dangerous level for — in terms of debt — that doesn't really make a whole lot of sense now, and that used to be, kind of, accepted wisdom. We've learned that a lot of things we thought before weren't true. But what we haven't learned yet (laughs) is whether what we're doing now is true. And the best thing to do is recognize you don't know and proceed in a way where you get a decent result no matter what happens. And that's what we try and do at Berkshire Hathaway. We do not think we can make money by making macroeconomic predictions. We do think we can — we do think we can pretty darn — be pretty darn sure we'll get a reasonable result under policies that will not maximize result, if we could do that sort of thing.

查理·芒格拉里是对是错,现在还完全看不清楚。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's not at all clear whether Larry is right or wrong.

沃伦·巴菲特不过,他是个聪明人。

WARREN BUFFETTHe's a smart man, though.

查理·芒格他是个聪明人。他敢于提出这个问题,也很有勇气。他几乎是唯一一个这么说的人,顺便说一句,我很钦佩这一点。

CHARLIE MUNGERHe is a smart man. And it's courageous of him to be raising it, too. He's practically the only one talking that way, which I admire, by the way.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。这保证了他不会在政府里谋到职位。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. It guarantees he won't get a position in the administration. (Laughs)

查理·芒格没错。嗯,这也是我钦佩他的原因之一。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. Well, that's one of the reasons I admire him.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格不是说在政府任职有什么不好,但我喜欢那些能说出自己真实想法的人。

CHARLIE MUNGERNot that there's anything wrong with having a position in the administration, but I think people who kind of tell it the way they think it is, I like it.

“我总体上喜欢银行”,但我们“不想持有像之前那么多银行股”

"I like banks generally" but we "didn't want as much in banks as we had"

贝基·奎克这个问题——又回到了银行业这个话题,你之前提到过一部分。来自瑞士的杰罗姆·博纳尔写道:“您能解释一下,为什么在 2020 年决定卖出大部分银行股,只保留了美国银行?以及您对银行业未来的看法是什么?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes — it circles back to banking, which you touched on earlier. But Jerome Bonnard from Switzerland writes, "Could you please explain why you decided to exit most of your bank stocks in 2020 except for Bank of America? And what's your view on the future of the banking industry?"

沃伦·巴菲特我总体上喜欢银行,我只是不喜欢我们持有它们的比例,考虑到如果出现糟糕结果可能带来的风险——到目前为止,我们还没遇到糟糕结果。所以,我只是——而且——我们在美国银行的持股超过了 10%。这对银行来说——更多的是对银行来说,而不是对我们——如果超过 10%,会带来一堆麻烦。而且,我喜欢美国银行。我是说——我非常喜欢(CEO)布莱恩·莫伊尼汉。我也看好银行业本身,所以我们增持了美国银行,但降低了整体银行仓位。我们不想在其他任何银行持股超过 10%。我们也不想增持美国银行,但整体上,我们不想持有像之前那么多银行股。我们喜欢——美国的银行业比 10 或 15 年前好得多。世界各地的银行业,在某些地方,可能会让我担心。但我们的银行比 10 或 15 年前健康得多。但当市场短暂冻结时,银行最大的依仗(笑)是美联储在背后支持它们。美联储可不管——他们不管伯克希尔。我们得靠自己。

WARREN BUFFETTI like banks generally, I just didn't like the proportion we had in it, compared to the possible risk if we got bad results that did not — so far, we haven't gotten. So, I just — and I — We were over 10% of Bank of America. It's a real pain in the neck, both to the bank —more to the banks than to us, if we go over 10%, there's just a whole lot of — And, I like the Bank of America. I mean — and I like (CEO) Brian Moynihan very much. And I like the banking business fine, so we took that up, but we took the overall bank position down. We didn't want to go above 10 in any of the others. And we didn't want to increase the BofA position, but we, overall, didn't want as much in banks as we had. We like — the banking business is way better than it was, in the United States, than 10 or 15 years ago. The banking business around the world, in various places, might worry me. But we — our banks are in far, far better shape than 10 or 15 years ago. But when things froze for a short period of time, the biggest thing the banks had (laughs) going for them is that the Federal Reserve was behind them. And Federal Reserve is not — they're not behind Berkshire. It's up to us to take care of ourselves.

巴菲特拒绝解释买入威瑞森股票的想法

Buffett declines to explain his thinking on purchase of Verizon stock

贝基·奎克这个问题来自洛杉矶的马特。“您最近买入了大量威瑞森股票。出于学习目的,您能解释一下这笔投资背后的想法吗?总的来说,许多人认为电信公司只是‘笨管道’,需要大量资本开支建设 5G 基础设施,而其他科技公司,比如 Facebook、Uber、Airbnb 和 DoorDash,却可以从中受益,攫取基础设施创造的大部分价值。”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Matt in Los Angeles. "You recently purchased a large stake in Verizon. For educational purposes, could you please explain your thinking behind this investment? In general, many people see telecoms as dumb pipes that have to spend heavily on CapEx, building out the 5G infrastructure, only for the other tech companies to take advantage and capture most of the value created from the infrastructure, like Facebook, Uber, Airbnb, and DoorDash."

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我认为他分析得很到位。但我们不——我们不做解释(笑)为什么持有某只股票的工作,因为我们可能会再买入,也可能会卖出,或者谁知道会怎样。所以,他得靠自己了。但听起来,他自己完全有能力想清楚这个问题。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think he's analyzed the situation well. But we are not in a — in the business of explaining (laugh) why we own a stock, which we either might buy more of, or sell, or who knows what. So, he's on his own. But he sounds like he's very capable of thinking it through very well himself. (Laughs)

我们不会花时间思考如果法律改变会发生什么

We don't spend time thinking about what happens if laws change

贝基·奎克斯拉文·武科布拉特提问:“参议员乔什·霍利(密苏里州共和党人)最近提出了一项新的反垄断提案,将禁止市值超过 1000 亿美元的公司进行并购。虽然这项立法不太可能通过,但加强反垄断监管可能对伯克希尔构成实质性风险。伯克希尔的董事会是否已经讨论过,如果伯克希尔被阻止收购控股权企业,长期来看公司会变成什么样?”

BECKY QUICKSlaven Vukobrat writes in, "Senator Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) recently unveiled a new antitrust proposal that would ban mergers and acquisitions by firms with a market capitalization over a hundred billion dollars. "While this legislation is unlikely to go through, increasing antitrust regulation could represent a material risk for Berkshire. "Has Berkshire's board already discussed what would happen to the company over the long term if Berkshire was to be prevented from acquiring controlled businesses?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们不会单独讨论这个问题。但董事会非常、非常、非常清楚伯克希尔做什么——为什么这么做——你知道——我们在配置资本时是怎么想的。但我们可以——你知道——每个人都知道,如果反垄断法变了,伯克希尔会受影响。如果税法变了,伯克希尔也会受影响。你知道,有很多事情——我们可以花几个小时讨论它们。但最后,你知道,某件事改变的几率是 22.3% 吗?(笑)这是个在董事会上消磨时间的好方法,如果你每年拿三四十万美元的董事费,你可能想花时间干这个。但我们真的不关注这些。伯克希尔最核心的是如何维护其文化,如何确保如果选错了 CEO,还有办法采取行动。董事会最大的风险就是选错 CEO。我担任过 20 家公司的董事,这种事情发生过不止一次。有时想解雇他们会是个大麻烦。你知道,时间一年年过去,你知道——如果有个持不同意见的人进来,那是一回事,但如果你只是坐在那里,每年拿三四十万美元,而首席执行官不断提议(笑)给你加薪——更糟的是,如果他是个好人,你知道,他尽了全力。(笑)这——但是——我们不会花大量时间——我们也许私下会讨论,但我们不会让很多人——我们希望他们更多地了解 BNSF 的运营情况,(CEO)凯蒂(法默)干得怎么样,以及 KCS(收购堪萨斯城南方铁路的竞争)这件事会不会对我们造成实质性损害等等。我们真的不会,也许私下除外,不会开始讨论,你知道,如果这个预测或那个预测成真,2050 年会出现什么影响。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we don't discuss that as a specific. But the board is very, very, very familiar with what Berkshire does — why they do it — you know, how we think in deploying capital. Buy we could — you know — Everybody knows that if you change the antitrust laws, it can change things for Berkshire. If they change the tax laws, it can change things for Berkshire. You know, there's a lot of things, and — we can spend hours discussing them. But in the end, you know, is it a 22.3% risk that, you know, something changes? (Laughs) It's a good way to fill the time at board meetings, and if you're getting three or four hundred thousand dollars a year as a board director, you might want to spend your time doing that. But we really don't focus on that. The main thing about Berkshire is how they preserve the culture, how they make sure that if you get the wrong person as the CEO, you can do something about it. That's the biggest risk a board has is if you pick the wrong CEO. And I've been on 20 boards and it's happened more than once. And sometimes it's a terrible problem to get rid of them. You know, years go by and, you know — If a dissident comes in, it's one thing, but if you just sit there and you collect your three or four hundred thousand a year and the chief executive keeps proposing you get increases (laughs) from time to time — And it's worse yet if he's a nice person, you know, doing his best. (Laughs) It's — but — we're not going to spend a lot of time — we may do it on a personal basis, but we're not going to take a lot of people and — We want them to know more about what's going on with BNSF and how (CEO) Katie's (Farmer) doing and whether the KCS (Kansas City Southern railroad acquisition contest) thing can injure us in any material way and so on. And we really don't, except maybe on a private side, we don't start talking about, you know, what the effects will be in 2050 if this projection or that projection is met. Charlie?

查理·芒格没什么可补充的。

CHARLIE MUNGERNothing to add.

对伯克希尔快速承保巨大风险的能力需求下降

Less demand for Berkshire's ability to quickly insure enormous risks

贝基·奎克这个问题是多姆·格雷厄姆在会议期间提出的,基于你今天早些时候说的一些话。他说:“为什么沃伦说伯克希尔快速承保巨大风险的能力,其价值不如以前了?”

BECKY QUICKThis question was sent in by Don Graham during the meeting, based on something you said earlier today. And he says, "Why does Warren say Berkshire's ability to insure enormous risk quickly is a less valuable asset than it used to be?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,因为需求减少了,基本上就是这样。拿 9/11 之后那段时间来说,我记得——细节上可能有出入——比如国泰航空,我记得,除非他们在下周一来临前拿到保险单,否则飞机就不能在香港降落。我们能做到。我是说,阿吉特(·贾恩)打电话给我,他想出一个价格,我想出一个价格。(笑)然后——我们能做。如果出事,我们能扛得住损失。他们后来找过我们,我记得是西尔斯大厦,那时候——你知道——没人知道——没人知道炸弹会不会被安得到处都是。突然之间他们就需要更多的保险。我们给了他们一个报价。所以——那种环境其实没能持续太久。我是说,有些时候,我觉得——也许美国国际集团(AIG)在汉克·格林伯格掌舵时,也会做同样的事。但当时没那么多——10 或 20 家——而且他们在某些情况下需要大额保额。我们信誉好。他们知道,如果买了保险,出事时我们会开张支票,而且票子肯定能兑付。(笑)阿吉特,你也许有补充——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, because the demand is less, I mean, basically on that. If you take a period like happened after 9/11, I remember — I may be wrong on the details a little on this — but Cathay Pacific, for example, they couldn't land in Hong Kong, as I remember, unless they had an insurance policy by Monday of the following week. Well, we can do it. I mean, Ajit (Jain) calls me up and he thinks of a price and I think of a price. (Laughs) And then — But we can do it. We can take the loss if it happens. They called us on the Sears Tower, I think, back — then after the, you know — nobody knew — They didn't know whether, you know, bombs might be placed all over. And they wanted more insurance all of a sudden. And we gave them a price, and — So, that thing — that sort of an environment hasn't really persisted. I mean, there were times, I think — perhaps AIG, when Hank Greenberg was there, he would do the same thing. But there weren't — 10 or 20 people — and they needed big limits, in some cases. And we were good for it. And they knew that if they bought insurance and it happened that we'd write a check and it would clear. (Laughs) Ajit, you might have some —

阿吉特·贾恩对。除了需求端,供给端的竞争也激烈多了。现在有不少公司能拿出大额保额——虽然不如我们大——但他们能联合搞个项目,轻轻松松凑出 10 亿美元。我们以前拥有的那个竞争优势,现在依然有,但已经不像过去那么重要了。

AJIT JAINYeah. In addition to the demand side, the supply side has become a lot more competitive as well. There are a lot of people who can put up big limits — not as much as we do — but they can syndicate a program and put up a billion dollar very easily. So that competitive advantage we had, we still have, but it's no longer as big a deal as it used to be.

阿贝尔对卡夫亨氏 CEO “满意”

Abel: "Pleased" with Kraft Heinz CEO

贝基·奎克这个问题来自苏格兰的一位股东,他想知道沃伦、查理和格雷格对卡夫亨氏过去 12 个月表现的看法,对比一下疫情前令人失望的表现。你们对卡夫亨氏的前景,当前和长期怎么看?

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from a shareholder in Scotland who wants to know Warren, Charlie, and Greg's views on how Kraft Heinz has performed over the last 12 months compared to the disappointing performance pre-COVID. And what are your current and longer-term views on Kraft Heinz' prospects?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我想格雷格在卡夫亨氏董事会里。所以,他——(笑)我不知道我们是否有资格给卡夫亨氏提建议。你知道,很多年前,我们实际上和 3G 公司建立了一种半正式的合作伙伴关系,当时只是亨氏那笔交易,后来我们和合作伙伴一起收购了卡夫。他们做得比我们期望的还多——他们承担了自己那份责任。我们做了当初答应要做的事,就是充当财务合作伙伴。他们更偏向运营伙伴,我们也在一定程度上参与重大决策,他们会听取我们的意见。但我们不会给出任何——关于卡夫亨氏的股票,那是别人去评估的事。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think that Greg's on the board. So, he — (laughs) I don't know that we're in a position to give advice on Kraft Heinz. You know, we entered a, in effect, a semi-formal partnership with 3G many years ago when it was just the Heinz deal, and then went on to acquire Kraft with our partners. And they've done more than — they hold up their share of things, you know. And we do what we said we'd do going in, which is to be a financial partner. And they're more of the operating partner, or we participate, to a degree, in any big decisions, and that they would listen to us. But we're not making any — in terms of Kraft Heinz stock — that's up to somebody else to evaluate.

格雷格·阿贝尔对。我只想补充一点,沃伦,我们对一件事很满意:他们任命了一位能干的管理者(CEO)米格尔(·帕特里西奥)。他在卡夫亨氏组建了一支非常优秀的团队。所以,我们对现有的领导层和管理团队很满意。他们非常专注于如何执行前进中的计划,优化资本结构并降低债务水平。所以,我们对现有团队引领的前进方向感到非常满意——

GREG ABELYeah. The only thing I would add, Warren, is I think we're very comfortable with the fact that they put a strong manager in place in (CEO) Miguel (Patricio). And he's put a very good team in place at Kraft Heinz. So, we're pleased with the leadership and management team in place. They're very focused on how they're executing as they've gone forward and rationalizing their capital structure and managing down their debt structure. So, very pleased with the path forward with the existing team —

沃伦·巴菲特是的,我们对这个感觉更好——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we feel better about the —

CEO 们为公司编织的“神话”带来的危险

Danger of the "myths" CEOs create about their companies

沃伦·巴菲特有一个——这是一个更宽泛的话题——但有一个话题——我甚至可能在未来某份年报里写一写——就是人们对自家公司编织的神话所引发的问题。这种事情我见过太多次了,各种形式的都有。某种程度上,这个问题在过去二三十年里变得更加突出,因为 CEO 经常——和投资者关系部门一起(听不清)——他们会说,我们必须和分析师群体保持持续联系。当然——所以他们每隔一两个月就出去讲,反复说一些关于公司的某些话,这就变成了类似教条一样的东西。没人会在 CEO 说完某句话之后两个月跳出来说,嗯,实际上那根本不是那么回事。(笑)他们不会自相矛盾,也不会改变方向。所以,一旦这些神话形成——它们可以以很多不同的方式出现。我可以举很多例子,但我不打算举。就像我对我那些美国企业界的朋友们说的,我真的不会告发他们。(笑)但有很多神话是从一个 CEO 传给下一个 CEO 的。继任的 CEO 能说提拔他的那位选错了方向,或者他一直在告诉我们一些其实不真实的东西吗?他做不到。你知道,然后他就开始重复那套话。这会导致巨大的错误。但不说例子又很难讲清楚,而我又不喜欢举例子。(笑)所以,等以后我写这个话题时再看吧。查理,你可能有想法。我们——他——他在很多场合都是旁观者——他进过一些我没进过的董事会。我的意思是,这不仅仅局限于商业。它扩展到了教育领域,扩展到了——嗯,很多领域。

WARREN BUFFETTOne of the — this is a more general subject, but — One of the subjects— I might even write about it in one of the future annual reports — is the problems caused by the myths that people have about their own organization. And I've seen that so many times in various forms. And to some extent, the problem has become accentuated in the last 20 or 30 years because the CEO often — and works with the investor relations (unintelligible) — and they say well, we have to have constant contact with the analyst community. And of course — so they go on every couple of months, and they repeat certain things about their company, and it becomes part of, sort of, the catechism. And nobody's going to go on two months after the CEO has said one thing and say, well, actually that really isn't the way. (Laughs) They're not going to contradict themselves or change course. And so, if you get these myths — and they can occur in a lot of different ways. I could give a lot of examples, which I won't do. As I tell my friends in corporate America, I'm really not going to squeal on them. (Laughs) But there's a lot of mythology that gets handed down from one CEO to the next. Can the succeeding CEO say the guy that picked him, you know, was on the wrong course, or, he's been telling us something that isn't really quite true. He can't do it. You know, and then he starts repeating it. And it leads to enormous errors. But it's hard to tell the story without giving examples, and I don't like to give examples. (Laughs) So, we'll see when I write about it sometime. Charlie, you've probably got some thoughts. We've — He's been – he's had a ringside seat at a lot of — he's been on boards that I haven't been on, I mean. And it doesn't just extend to business. It goes beyond that into education, into — well, a lot of areas.

查理·芒格真正有意思的是,你不停地随口唠叨,哪怕说的不对,你也在不断强化它。所以,人类言论史上我最喜欢的一句话,出自英国伟大的演员塞德里克·哈德威克爵士。他说:“我当大牌演员太久了,以至于我都不清楚自己在任何问题上的真实想法了。” 我认为很多人都这样。几乎每个政客都是这样。

CHARLIE MUNGERWhat's really interesting, is the way you prattle out all the time, you're pounding back in even if it's wrong. And so, one of my favorite remarks in the history of human remarks was by Sir Cedrick Hardwicke who was a great British actor. And he said, "I have been a great actor for so long, that I no longer know what I truly think on any subject." And I think that happens to a lot of people. And it happens to virtually every politician.

沃伦·巴菲特而且这会在公司里扎根——

WARREN BUFFETTAnd it gets embedded in corporate —

查理·芒格会扎根,然后——

CHARLIE MUNGERGets embedded and so on —

沃伦·巴菲特麻烦的是,现在 CEO 们说得太频繁了。所以,如果他们对公司说了什么疯狂的话,还不断重复,下属是不会反驳的。而且——就像查理刚才说的,过一阵子他们自己都信了。这很危险。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd the trouble is now, the CEOs speak out so often. So, if they've got some crazy thing that they're saying about their company and they keep repeating it, the subordinates aren't going to contradict it. The — and as Charlie just said, they just believe it after a while. And it's dangerous.

查理·芒格是啊。当然,年轻人经过那些通识教育之后接受了这些想法,然后觉得上帝直接给了他们洞察力。他们跟那些政客一样疯。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. And of course, the young people get these ideas after their liberal educations and think that God has given them direct insights. And they're just as crazy as the politicians.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,有些老人也那样。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, there's some old people that have them, too.

查理·芒格是啊,嗯——(笑声)但老人已经疯了。不过——

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, well — (Laughter) But the old people are already crazy. But —

沃伦·巴菲特他们死得更快,所以——

WARREN BUFFETTThey're going to die sooner, so —

查理·芒格我们有自己的老式疯狂。年轻人得到的是新式疯狂。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWe have our old insanities. The new insanities, the young get. (Laughter)

伯克希尔的 Haven 合资企业为何败在医疗成本的“绦虫”之下

Why Berkshire's Haven joint venture lost against the "tapeworm" of health care costs

贝基·奎克好的,这个问题来自比尔·贝格利,他说:“你能告诉我们伯克希尔、摩根大通和亚马逊三方合资的(Haven)公司后来怎么样了吗?这家公司旨在研究如何改善美国医疗保健现状。我只读到它解散了。从这次努力中,你们有没有学到什么教训?”

BECKY QUICKAll right, this question comes from Bill Begley, who said, "Could you tell us what happened to the (Haven) joint venture between Berkshire, JPMorgan, and Amazon to investigate what could be done about the current state of medical health care in the United States? The only item I read was that it was disbanded. Do you have any lessons to be learned from your effort?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们学到了很多关于改变一个占 GDP 17% 的行业有多难(笑)。我们——我们实现了一个不那么宏大的目标,这个目标对我们来说,可能甚至比摩根大通或亚马逊都更重要,因为我们对自己系统的了解比他们少。他们了解——他们是一家更集权运营的公司。所以,我们获得了一些好处,因为我们审视了自己现有的六七十个不同的业务。这是一个例子,说明一定程度的集权——至少在某个方面——可以省下实实在在的钱。我是说,我们发现了一些低效之处。而且就像我说的,我们可能比其他两个合作伙伴省得更多,因为他们更了解自己的情况。我们发现自己做了一些蠢事。所以,我们算是物有所值。但说到改变一个这么多人有既得利益的行业的大局——还有一个额外的因素,真的很有意思。这背后有一个精巧的设计,可以追溯到一位名叫——没有直接关系——比尔斯利·拉姆尔的人。几乎没人听说过比尔斯利·拉姆尔,但比尔斯利·拉姆尔在 1941 年想出了预扣所得税的主意。这样一来,人们不用在 4 月 15 日那天写张支票,然后心里想着自己多恨那些政客,多恨政府和所有其他东西,他们反而把这事儿看作一种圣诞俱乐部储蓄,还有多缴的部分,到最后结算时他们竟然还能收到一张退税支票。所以,当你自己不用写那张支票的时候,你明白——你可能知道公司给你提供的医疗保险,每年值 1 万美元或 1.5 万美元,可能公司也要花这么多钱——但你看不到这笔支出。所以,公司直接付了。而那候诊室里坐在我旁边的大多数人——他们坐在那儿的时候,并不会琢磨我能不能负担得起这个,或者这会对我的收入有什么影响?他们通常都有某种保险计划——当然,不全是这样。但他们不会想,如果公司不给他们付这笔钱,公司就可以把这笔钱作为额外薪酬发给他们。但当然,这个古怪的体系是,公司付了这笔钱就能抵税。可要是你自己掏钱买保险,我觉得你是不能抵税的。所以,大多数人都不觉得这对自己是一种成本。而且他们还挺喜欢这样的。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we learned a lot about the difficulty of changing around an industry (laughs) that's 17% of GDP. And we're — we leaned — We accomplished a lesser objective, which was probably more important to us, even, than either JPMorgan or to Amazon, because we knew less about our own system than they did. They knew — they're a more centralized operation. So, we got some benefits in the sense that we looked at 60 or 70 different operations we had presently. And that's one case where a certain amount of centralization, at least in certain aspects of it, can save real money. I mean, we found inefficiencies. And like I say, we probably saved more than the other two partners because they knew their situation better. We found some dumb things we were doing. So, we got our money's worth. But in terms of the big picture of changing something that so many people have a vested interest in doing — and there's one additional factor to it, which is really interesting. There's an ingenious aspect to it that goes back to a fellow named — which didn't have any direct connection — but Beardsley Ruml. And nobody's ever heard of Beardsley Ruml, but Beardsley Ruml, in 1941, came up with the idea of the withholding tax. So, people instead of April 15th having to write a check and thinking how much they hated their politicians, and hated the government and everything else, they actually looked at it as kind of a Christmas club, and there were overpayments involved, and they actually got a check when the final payment came due. So, when you aren't writing the check yourself, you know — you may know that the health benefit from your company is worth $10,000 a year to you or 15,000, and may cost them that much, but — it may cost the company that much — but you don't see it. So, the company pays it. And most of the people in that waiting room sitting next to me when — they are not sitting there thinking about whether I can afford to do this, you know, or what's this going to do? They're generally under some kind of a plan — not always, obviously. But they don't think that if the company wasn't paying them that, they could pay them that in additional compensation. But of course, the weird system is the company gets a deduction if they pay it. But if you pay it yourself on a policy, I don't believe you get a deduction. So, it's something that most of the people are not seeing as a cost to them. And they like that pretty well.

查理·芒格可不是嘛。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERNo kidding. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。但联邦所得税也是一样。我的意思是,从政府的角度看,采用代扣代缴制度堪称天才之举。如果不是这样,你想想,有多少人要在 4 月 15 日坐下来,开出一张数额相当不小的支票。他们会气疯的。(笑)他们不会喜欢这种做法的,而现在他们根本感觉不到。所以,我们之前就说过——你知道,这是显而易见的一点。但还有一点,人们通常喜欢自己的医生。可他们不喜欢医疗支出占 GDP 的 17% 这个事实。不过,一个是比较模糊抽象的东西,另一个对他们来说非常非常真实。社区里最有声望的人都在医院董事会里。而且,你知道,很多人对这个系统还算满意。所以,我们在这方面没有取得什么进展。我们现在把 GDP 的 17% 花在了医疗上。任何主要国家都不超过 11%。而在疫情中,你知道,我们的死亡率——或者说死亡总数——占人口的比例,远高于世界其他地区。不是每一个国家都比我们高,但高出很多。所以,你知道,我们花了更多钱,却得到了更差的结果——就这次疫情来说,看人均死亡人数的话。当然,最终结果可能不是——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, but that's true of the federal income tax. I mean, it was an act of genius, from the standpoint of the government, to go to a withholding system. And if you didn't, just think of how many people on April 15th would have to sit down and write a pretty good-sized check. And they'd be mad. (Laughs) They wouldn't like it, and they don't feel it now. So, we were up — you know, that's an obvious point. But you also — people like their doctor, in general. And they don't like the fact that it's 17% of GDP. But one is just kind of a, you know, amorphous sort of thing. And the other is very, very real to them. And the most prestigious people in the community are on the hospital boards. And, you know, a lot of people that — are fairly happy with the system. So, we did not make inroads on that. And we are paying 17% of GDP for health care. And no major country is more than 11%. And in the pandemic, you know, we've had a death rate — or a death total — as a percentage of population — that's way higher than the rest of the world. Not every single country, but way higher, so it — You know, we've laid out more money and gotten a poorer result, in terms of this particular pandemic, in terms of deaths per capita. Now, that may not turn out to be the —

查理·芒格哦,沃伦,虽然你开枪没打中,但至少你瞄准了一头大象。新加坡的医疗成本只有美国的 20%。而且他们的医疗系统运转得更好。所以,你瞄准的是一头巨大的大象。但就像你发现的,要让人放弃自己的一部分收入,非常难。

CHARLIE MUNGEROh, Warren, even though you shot at and missed, you were at least shooting at an elephant. The cost of health care in Singapore is 20% of what it is in the United States. And their medical system works better. So, you were shooting at a huge elephant. But as you found out, it's very hard to — people get very enthusiastic about losing part of their income.

沃伦·巴菲特哦,是啊。不,我说我们在美国经济里斗一条绦虫——

WARREN BUFFETTOh, yeah. No, I said we were fighting a tapeworm —

查理·芒格是啊。你在——

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. You were —

沃伦·巴菲特——在美国经济里,然后绦虫赢了。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETT— in the American economy and the tapeworm won. (Laughs)

查理·芒格是啊,绦虫——绦虫——

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, the tapeworm — the tapeworm —

沃伦·巴菲特对。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格这说法很精——好,妙极了,绦虫——我得学学这个。

CHARLIE MUNGERThat's exact — good, wonderful phrase, the tapeworm — I'll have to copy that.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这不是我们刻意想出来的说法——但——(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it wasn't a phrase we were looking — but — (Laughter)

芒格无意中透露格雷格·阿贝尔被指定为最终接替巴菲特的 CEO

Munger unintentionally reveals Greg Abel designated to eventually replace Buffett as CEO

贝基·奎克这个问题来自塔尔萨的马克·布莱克利。“这是问沃伦和查理的。我们在谈论伯克希尔时,通常聚焦保险业务和最大的非保险业务,就像您 2019 年提到的‘红杉’。然而,伯克希尔拥有大量子公司,其中大部分从未被提及。伯克希尔会不会有一天变得太大而难以管理?对于伯克希尔多数公司信息缺乏,我们是否需要担心?会不会有一个时刻,伯克希尔变得太大太复杂?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes in from Mark Blakley in Tulsa. "This is for Warren and Charlie. When we discuss Berkshire, we often focus on the insurance operations and the largest non-insurance businesses, the "Redwoods," as you mentioned in 2019. "However, Berkshire owns a large number of subsidiary businesses, most of which are never mentioned. Is there a point at which Berkshire becomes too large to manage? And should we have any concern over the lack of information for most of Berkshire's companies? Is there a time that could come when Berkshire's too large and complex?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,它规模大到没法做某些事,这是肯定的。我是说,你知道,它现在——我们不可能花时间去寻找一亿美元级别的收购,但——我们在沃斯堡有一家——一家很棒的公司(TTI)。我们有一位了不起的人在管理它(保罗·安德鲁斯),他最近去世了。但他经营着它——他 15 年前把公司卖给我,之后基本上就一直由他经营,你知道。而我连去那家公司的路都找不到。我们还有一家出色的公司,生产休闲车(森林河),总部在印第安纳州埃尔克哈特。我们 15 年前买下它,我至今没去过那里,你知道。也许有什么人躲在壁橱里,每个月编造些数字寄给我。但我觉得自己对这项业务相当了解。可我从未亲眼见过它。而管理它的那位(彼得·列格尔)喜欢经营它,也喜欢我别插手。他允许格雷格(阿贝尔)的介入程度会比我多一点,因为——(笑)但这就是——我们有一套系统,可以靠出色的企业和出色的经理人运转。找到他们是我们的职责。但同样,找到之后,用心呵护他们也是我们的责任。如果你遇到像保罗·安德鲁斯这样的人,他管理 TTI,并且从零、从绝对的空白一手把它建起来,没人听说过他,在他为我们经营期间,利润增长了七倍。他很开心,员工们很开心,他是个极好的人,我们也开心。我每年年底会给他打电话,说,保罗,你知道,这地方——你的业绩简直好得惊人,你应该给自己加薪——他会说——或者发奖金——他会说:“嗯,我们明年再谈这个吧,沃伦。”我是说,他就是热爱——他热爱他的生意。我热爱伯克希尔,他热爱他的生意。而让他去填一堆关于(笑)他用了多少碳或其他什么东西的报告,我根本不会从中得到任何增量价值。你知道,这简直是——认为像保罗·安德鲁斯这样的人会做出反社会行为(笑)或诸如此类的事,那是很可笑的。我们非常希望拥有更多这样的公司。显然,随着我们规模变大,这类收购会越来越难做成。但我们内部已有不少。而且我不认为我们已经买下了最后一家,假以时日的话。但我目前在近期内确实看不到任何机会。不过,我们通过回购股份,对自己已经拥有的这些公司的兴趣略有增强。这样一来,我们的股东每年都会拥有这些公司更多的份额,当我们——假如我们正在进行对价格敏感的回购时。查理?

<<<END P 15>>>

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it's too large to do certain things, that's for sure. I mean, you know, it's not — we can't spend our time looking for a hundred million-dollar acquisitions, but — We have a couple — a wonderful company (TTI) in Fort Worth. And we had a marvelous man running it (Paul Andrews), and he died recently. But he ran it — he sold it to me 15 years ago, and he just basically ran it, you know. And I couldn't find my way to the company. We've got this terrific company that makes recreational vehicles (Forest River), the Elkhart — based in Elkhart, Indiana. And we bought it 15 years ago. I've never been there, you know. Maybe there's some guy in a closet just making up numbers to send to me every month. But I feel I understand the business pretty well. But I've never seen it. And the fellow that runs it (Peter Liegl) likes running it. And he likes me keeping my nose out of it. And he'll let Greg (Abel) in a little more than he'll let me because — (laughs) But it's — we've got a system that will work with wonderful businesses and wonderful managers. And it's up to us to find them. But it's also (up to) us to nurture them when we find them. And if you get somebody like Paul Andrews, who ran TTI, and who built it from nothing, absolutely nothing, and nobody ever heard of him, and the earnings have octupled during the period that he ran it for us. And he was happy. The employees were happy. He was a wonderful man. We were happy. And I would call him at the end of the year, and I'd say, Paul, you know, this place is — you're shooting the lights out and everything, and you should take a raise — and he said — or bonus — he's say, "Well, we'll talk about that next year, Warren." I mean, he just loved — he loved the business. I love Berkshire. He loved the business. And I wasn't going to add anything by having him fill out a bunch of reports about (laughs) how much he's using in the way of carbon or anything. You know, it's just — it's ridiculous to think of a guy like Paul Andrews behaving in an antisocial manner (laughs) or anything of the sort. And we'd love to have more of those. And obviously, if we get bigger, they get harder to buy. But we've got a number in the place. And I don't think we've bought our last one, over time. But I certainly don't see anything in the near future at all. But we're intensifying our interest a little bit in the ones we have by repurchasing shares. So, our shareholders own more of those companies every year while we're — assuming we're repurchasing shares, which is price-sensitive. Charlie?

查理·芒格是啊。我不认为我们变得太大而难以管理,因为我们和美国几乎所有其他大公司都不同,我们极度分散。我们分散得非常厉害,给子公司很大的权力,只要这套模式持续有效,我们就能一直干下去,干很久很久。而且我要说,到目前为止,我们的分散化带来的好处多于坏处。但好像没人学我们。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. I don't think we're getting too big to manage, because we're different from practically every other big corporation in the United States, in that we are so excessively decentralized. We have decentralized so much, and we have so much authority in the subsidiaries, that we can keep doing it for a long, long time, as long as it keeps working. And I would say, so far, that our decentralization has caused more benefits than defects. But nobody seems to copy us.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这绝对没错。但我要说一点。分散化是行不通的(笑),除非你有配套的合适文化。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, but that's absolutely true. But I would say this. Decentralization won't work (laughs) unless you have the right kind of culture accompanying it.

查理·芒格对,但我们有。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, but we do.

沃伦·巴菲特对,我们有。但——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we do. But —

查理·芒格但格雷格会——

CHARLIE MUNGERBut Greg is —

沃伦·巴菲特——这全依赖文化。我是说——

WARREN BUFFETT— and it's dependent on it. I mean —

查理·芒格格雷格会——格雷格会保持这种文化。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd Greg will — and Greg will keep the culture.

沃伦·巴菲特如果我们有一种文化,高层的人都想在五年内为自己大捞一笔,那这套是行不通的。

WARREN BUFFETTIf we'd had the — if we had a culture of people who were trying to make a lot of money for themselves in the next five years at the top, it would not have worked.

查理·芒格不,当然不行。文化是其中一部分。但假设我们保持这种文化,它还能走很远。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, of course not. And the culture is part of it. But assuming we keep the culture, it can go on quite a ways.

沃伦·巴菲特很久很久。

WARREN BUFFETTFor a long, long time.

查理·芒格很久很久。我觉得这可能会让所有人都吃惊。顺便说一句——

CHARLIE MUNGERLong, long time. I think it may amaze everybody. And by the way —

沃伦·巴菲特查理(听不清)——

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie (unintelligible) —

查理·芒格——罗马帝国之所以能维持那么久,就是因为它高度分散。

CHARLIE MUNGER—the Roman Empire worked as long as it did because it was so decentralized.

沃伦·巴菲特就像查理对我说的,你不会知道的。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTAs Charlie says to me, you won't know. (Laughs)

“你真的必须爱上你的业务”

"You really got to be in love with your business"

贝基·奎克这个问题来自凯文·杨。是问阿吉特和格雷格的。“沃伦每天的时间都花在阅读上,他选择的读物是年报。你们两位每天是怎么过的?你们读什么?你们如何复盘投资决策?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Kevin Young. It's for Ajit and Greg. "Warren spends his days reading, and his literature of choice is annual reports. How do each of you spend your days? What do you read? And how do you review investment decisions?"

阿吉特·贾恩嗯,在我的工作中,我大部分时间都在阅读别人——经纪人和其他人——发给我们的交易方案,读他们的提议,试着分析,然后形成观点,判断这事对我们有没有吸引力。我还要补充一点,我不会花很多时间读年报,因为我本身不做选股的事。但就跟踪保险行业的动态而言,我 90% 的阅读内容都是围绕这个。格雷格?

AJIT JAINWell, in my job, I spend a lot of my time reading deals that people — brokers and people — send us, reading what they're proposing, trying to analyze them, and having a point of view, whether it is something that is of interest to us or not. I might add, I do not spend a lot of time reading annual reports because I'm not in the stock picking business per se. But in terms of keeping track of what's going on in the insurance business, that's what 90% of my reading is all about. Greg?

格雷格·阿贝尔是的。一般来说,一天之中,我阅读时关注的重点确实围绕我们的业务,以及它们所在的行业。我努力了解我们的竞争对手在做什么。这些业务面临哪些根本性风险?它们会如何被颠覆?然后总是回到一个问题:根据我们看到的各项风险,无论是在自身业务中还是在行业里,我们是否在这些业务上恰当地配置了资本?所以,大量时间花在这上面。随着这些认知的积累,我会与相关子公司的管理团队反复交流分享,然后逐步打磨细化,这确实就是我的做法。

GREG ABELYeah. So generally, in a day, what I'm going to focus on when I'm reading is really around our businesses, what industries they're in. I'm trying to understand what our competitors are doing. What's the fundamental risks around those businesses? How they're going to get disrupted. And then it always comes back to, are we allocating our capital properly in those businesses, relative to the risks we're seeing, both in our business and in the industry? So, a lot of time spent on that. And as that knowledge is built, it's sharing it back and forth with our management teams of those relevant subsidiaries, and sort of fine-tuning it, is really the approach.

沃伦·巴菲特这两个人吸收信息的能力都极为惊人。我是说,他们——首先,他们对这些东西极其感兴趣。我的意思是,你知道,这就是他们分内的事。我对他们两个都感到惊讶,他们几乎无所不知。(笑)而且——他们乐在其中。我是说,他们不会去想,下一个大机构里会不会有职位空缺之类的事。我们想要的人,基本没人会离开我们。但你真的必须热爱你的业务。这会带来天壤之别。这也意味着我们必须创造条件,让这种热爱能够枝繁叶茂。而在很多——很多组织里,热爱是无法生长的。

WARREN BUFFETTBoth of these fellows can absorb information to an extraordinary degree. I mean, they have — and for one thing, they're terribly interested in it. I mean, you know, and it's theirs. So, I'm amazed at both of them, the degree (to) which they just, sort of, know everything. (Laughs) And — but they enjoy it. I mean, they're not thinking about whether they'll get the next job that opens up at some huge place or anything like that. Nobody leaves us, you know, basically, the ones we want. But you really got to kind of be in love with your business. And that makes a huge difference. And that means that we've got to have the conditions that allow that love to flourish. And it wouldn't flourish under many — under many — with many organizations.

Robinhood 鼓励金融市场“赌博”

Robinhood encourages financial market "gambling"

贝基·奎克这个问题来自内布拉斯加州的罗伯特·迈尔斯。“交易应用。您如何看待 Robinhood 和其他交易应用,或者说金融科技公司,让所有年龄段和不同经验的人都能参与股市?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Robert Miles in Nebraska. "The trading apps. What do you think about Robinhood and other trading apps, or fintech companies, enabling all ages and experience to participate in the stock market?"

沃伦·巴菲特(笑)嗯,我很期待读到 Robinhood 的 S-1 文件——那是你打算向 SEC 发行证券时要提交的大文件。它——你知道,在过去一年或一年半里,它已经成为加入股市的赌场的一部分——赌场群体中非常显著的一部分。我确实想说,我担心他们如何处理收入来源,因为他们声称不向客户收取任何费用。我是说,你知道,我——看他们怎么描述这一点会很有意思。我是说,但——他们吸引了——也许一开始就有意吸引——但他们吸引了,我记得我读到过,他们 12% 或 13% 的赌场参与者都在交易(期权)看涨和看跌期权。我查过苹果,你知道,7 天和 14 天期权未平仓合约的数量。我敢肯定其中很大一部分是通过 Robinhood 来的。那是一群人在写——他们在赌苹果未来 7 天或 14 天的股价。你知道,这没什么——没什么违法的。也没什么不道德的。但——我不认为你会围绕做这种事的人来建设一个社会。我是说,如果我们一群人——我们一群人流落到一个荒岛上,而且知道永远不会得救,而我是其中一员,我说,好吧,我在这边建个交易所。(笑)我来交易我们的玉米期货诸如此类的东西——我认为——我认为,一个极其富裕的社会能在多大程度上奖励那些知道如何利用公众——不仅是美国公众,也是全球公众——本质上利用其赌博本能的人,这——你知道,这不是这项成就中最令人钦佩的部分。但我认为美国所取得的成就总体上还是相当令人钦佩的。(笑)而且我认为实际上,你知道,美国公司已经证明是一个让人们投钱和储蓄的绝佳场所。但它们同时也是绝佳的赌博筹码。如果你迎合这些赌博筹码,当人们第一次口袋里有了钱,你告诉他们一天可以做 30 次、40 次、50 次交易,而且你不收他们任何佣金,但你卖的是你的订单流之类的东西——我希望这种事不要再扩大了,就这么说吧。我会很有兴趣读那本招股说明书。查理?

WARREN BUFFETT(Laughs) Well, I'm looking forward to reading the S-1 on Robin — that's the big thing you file with the SEC when you're going to be offering securities., and — It's — you know, it's become a very significant part of the casino aspect — of the casino group — that has joined into the stock market in the last year or year and a half. And I do want to say I'm concerned of how they handle the source of income when they say they don't charge the customer anything. I mean, you know, I'm — it'll just be interesting to watch how they describe it. I mean, but — But they — they have attracted — maybe set out to attract — but they have attracted, I think I read where 12 or 13% of their casino participants were dealing in (option) puts and calls. I looked up on Apple, you know, the number of seven-day calls and 14-day calls outstanding. And I'm sure a lot of that is coming through Robinhood. And that's a bunch of people writing — they're gambling on the price of Apple over the next seven days or 14. There's nothing, you know — there's nothing illegal about it. There's nothing immoral. But — I don't think you'd build a society around people doing it. I mean, if a group of — a group of us landed on a desert island, and we knew we would never be rescued, and I was one of the group, and I said, well, I'll set up the exchange over here. (Laughs) And I'll trade our corn futures and everything around — I think — I think the degree to which a very rich society can reward people who know how to take advantage, essentially, of the gambling instincts of the — not only the American public — worldwide public — it's, you know, it's not the most admirable part of the accomplishment. But I think what America's accomplished is pretty admirable overall. (Laughs) And I think actually, you know, American corporations have turned out to be a wonderful place for people to put their money and save. But they also make terrific gambling chips. And if you cater to those gambling chips when people have money in their pocket for the first time, and you tell them they can make 30 or 40 or 50 trades a day, and you're not charging them any commission, but you're selling your order flow or whatever, it — I hope we don't have more of it, I'll put it that way. And I will be interested in reading the prospectus. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,这简直是在对着公牛挥舞红布。(笑声)我认为,像这样的东西竟然能吸引文明人和体面公民投资,实在是太糟糕了。这事大错特错。我们不想靠卖对人有害的东西赚钱。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, that is really waving the red flag at the bull. (Laughter) I think it's just God-awful that something like that would draw investment from civilized men and decent citizens. It's deeply wrong. We don't want to make our money selling things that are bad for people.

沃伦·巴菲特但各州不也在用彩票做这种事嘛,你知道。

WARREN BUFFETTBut we've got the states doing it with the lottery, you know.

查理·芒格不,但那也很糟糕。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, but that's bad, too.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,我知道。我明白,但我是说——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I know. I understand, but I'm saying —

查理·芒格那非常糟糕。那非常糟糕——

CHARLIE MUNGERThat's very bad. That's very bad —

沃伦·巴菲特一旦你——

WARREN BUFFETTOnce you —

查理·芒格这就是它的毛病之一。做这些事居然变得体面起来了。各州和 Robinhood 一样坏。

CHARLIE MUNGERThat's one of the things that's wrong with it. It's getting respectable to do these things. The states are just as bad as Robinhood.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,从某种意义上说它们更坏。我是说,它们实际上是在对——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, in a sense they're worse. I mean, they're really taxing the —

查理·芒格我知道是——我知道,我知道。

CHARLIE MUNGERI know it's — I know, I know.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。它们是在对希望征税。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. They're taxing hope.

查理·芒格不仅如此——

CHARLIE MUNGERNot only that —

沃伦·巴菲特而且它们从我和查理身上收的税,远不及它们从别人那里收的多——

WARREN BUFFETTAnd they don't get much in the way of taxes from me and Charlie than they do —

查理·芒格美国的各州取代了黑手党,成了数字游戏的经营者。事情就是这样。

CHARLIE MUNGERThe states in America replaced the Mafia as the proprietor of the numbers game. That's what happened.

沃伦·巴菲特没错。

WARREN BUFFETTYep.

查理·芒格它们把黑手党推到一边,说那是我们的生意,不是你们的。这事没让我为政府感到骄傲。

CHARLIE MUNGERThey pushed the Mafia aside and said that's our business, not yours. Doesn't make me proud of my government.

沃伦·巴菲特我小时候,我父亲(霍华德·巴菲特)在国会。众议院办公大楼里还真有个数字庄家的跑腿的(笑)。

WARREN BUFFETTWhen I was a kid, my dad (Howard Buffett) was in Congress. They had a numbers runner in the House office building (laughs), actually.

伯克希尔子公司遭遇意外的高通胀

Berkshire subsidiaries are seeing unexpectedly high inflation

贝基·奎克我来问这个问题,来自费城的克里斯·弗里德,台上谁都可以回答——“从伯克希尔子公司的原材料采购来看,你们是否看到通胀开始抬头的迹象?”

BECKY QUICKI will ask this question from Chris Fried from Philadelphia, and whoever wants to take this on stage — "From raw material purchases by Berkshire subsidiaries, are you seeing signs of inflation beginning to increase?"

沃伦·巴菲特我来回答。然后,我想格雷格能给出更多——我们看到了非常显著的通——这很有意思。我是说,我们在涨价。别人也在向我们涨价。而且市场接受了。我是说,这不是——如果我们拿到——嗯,你知道,拿住宅建设来说。我是说,你知道,成本——我们有九家住宅建筑商,除了我们的预制房屋业务——还有——运营,那是全国最大的。所以,我们在住房领域确实做了很多。(笑)成本就是一路涨,涨,涨。钢材成本,你知道,每天都在涨。还没有——因为工资会跟着涨。我是说,UAW 签三年合同,我们签三年合同。但如果你在通用汽车或其他地方买钢材,你每天都付更多钱。所以,它——这是个经济体,实际上——它热得发烫,我是说。我们没预料到。我是说,我们所有的公司,当它们——当它们被允许复工时,你知道——出于各种运营——我提到过我们关闭了家具店。你知道,它们平均关了六周左右。它们不知道开门后会发生什么。而且,你知道,它们没法阻止人们买东西。如果我们说,好吧,没关系,(笑)我们也无法交货,因为别人也没法交货。我们会等三个月左右。但积压的订单在增加。然后我们以为当 600 美元付款结束时它会停止,我想,你知道,去年八月左右。但它就是不停。它继续,继续,再继续。我拿到数据。每周我都打电话——或者(内布拉斯加家具城董事长)厄夫·布拉姆金打电话给我——我们逐天回顾芝加哥、堪萨斯城和达拉斯三家店里发生了什么。它就是停不下来。人们口袋里有钱。他们付更高的价格。当地毯价格一两个月后上涨时,你知道——他们宣布四月涨价——我们的成本在涨。供应链一团糟,你知道,(笑)对各种各样的企业来说。但这是一个购买——几乎是一场购买狂潮,除了某些领域你还不能买。你知道,你其实还买不了国际航空旅行,还有——所以,钱从经济的一部分被转移到了其他部分。而且每个人口袋里的现金都比——除了——同时,你知道,对一部分人来说情况很糟糕。你知道,这套西装——我几乎一年没穿西装了,你知道。这意味着我们附近的干洗店倒闭了。我是说,没人拿西装去干洗。也没人送我妻子去的那家店拿白衬衫。小企业主——如果你没有外卖和送餐服务,餐厅就会——你就完了。另一方面,如果你有外卖设施,这并不——你知道,冰雪皇后的同店销售额涨了一大截。它们适应了。但它——目前这完全不是一个价格敏感的经济体。我不知道它如何在不同的价格指数里体现出来。但通胀的程度比——比六个月前人们预想的大得多——程度更高。

WARREN BUFFETTLet me answer that. Then, I think Greg can give more — We're seeing very substantial infla — it's very interesting. I mean, we're raising prices. People are raising prices to us. And it's being accepted. I mean, it's not — if we get — well, you know, take home building. I mean, you know, the cost of — we've got nine home builders, in addition to our manufactured housing thing — and then — operation, which is the largest in the country. So, we really do a lot of housing. (Laughs) The costs are just up, up, up. Steel costs, you know, just every day, they're going up. There hasn't yet been — because the wage stuff follows. I mean, the UAW writes a three-year contract, we got a three-year contract. But if you're buying steel at General Motors or someplace, you're paying more every day. So, it's — it's an economy, really — it's red-hot, I mean. And we weren't expecting it. I mean, all our companies, when they — they thought when they were allowed to go back to work, you know, at — for various operations — we closed the furniture stores, I mentioned. You know, they were closed for six weeks or so, on average. And they didn't know what was going to happen when they opened them. And, you know, they can't stop people from buying things. And we can't deliver them if they say, well, that's OK, (laughs) because nobody else can deliver them, either. And we'll wait for three months or something of the sort. But the backlog grows. And then we thought it would end when the $600 payments ended in, I think, you know, around August of last year. It just kept going. And it keeps going, and it keeps going, and it keeps going. And I get the figures. Every week I call — or (Nebraska Furniture Mart Chairman) Irv Blumkin calls me — and we go over day-by-day what happened at the three different stores in Chicago, and Kansas City, and Dallas. And it just won't stop. People have money in their pocket. And they pay the higher prices. And when carpet prices go up in a month or two, you know — they announced a price increase for April — our costs are going up. Supply chains, all screwed up, you know, (laughs) for all kinds of people. But it's a buying — it's almost a buying frenzy, except certain areas you can't buy yet. You know, you really can't buy international air travel, and there's — So, the money is being diverted from a little — some — a piece of the economy into the rest. And everybody's got more cash in their pocket than — except for — meanwhile, you know, it's a terrible situation for a percentage of the people. The — you know, this suit — I haven't worn a suit, you know, for a year, practically. And that means that the dry cleaner near us just went out of business. I mean, nobody's bringing in suits to get dry cleaned. And nobody's bringing in white shirts to the place where my wife goes. The small businessperson — if you didn't have takeout and delivery services for restaurants — you got killed. On the other hand, if you've got takeout facilities, it doesn't — you know, same-store sales at Dairy Queen are up a whole lot. And they adapted. But it's — it is not a price-sensitive economy right now, in the least. And I don't know exactly how one shows up in different price indices. But there's more inflation going on than — quite a bit more inflation — going on than people would have anticipated just six months ago or thereabouts.

查理·芒格是的,有个非常聪明的人认为这很危险。这还只是开始。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, and there's one very intelligent man who thinks it's dangerous. And that's just the start.

阿贝尔:某些原材料的稀缺推高了价格

Abel: Scarcity of some raw materials is driving up prices

沃伦·巴菲特格雷格,你也许很适合来评论——

WARREN BUFFETTGreg, you probably are in a good position to comment —

格雷格·阿贝尔是的。嗯,沃伦,我觉得你提到了。当我们看钢铁价格、木材价格、任何石油相关投入时,你知道,本质上这些原材料有压力。我确实认为你提到的一点,沃伦,它确实回到了原材料上。目前某些原材料产品存在稀缺。它影响了价格和最终产品的交付能力。但是,你知道,这种稀缺因素现在也确实存在,因为我们的企业正应对这个挑战。而且,这可能是由我们之前讨论的得克萨斯风暴所促成或引发的。当你关停一个州那么多石化厂,而全国其他地区都依赖它时,我们看到影响在传导,既体现在价格上,也总体体现在产品的稀缺上,这两者显然是联系在一起的。但有挑战。这一点是肯定的。

GREG ABELYeah. Well, Warren, I think you touched on it. When we look at steel prices, timber prices, any petroleum input, you know, fundamentally there's pressure on those raw materials. I do think something you've touched on, Warren, and it goes really back to the raw materials. There's a scarcity of product right now of certain raw materials. It's impacting price and the ability to deliver the end product. But, you know, that scarcity factor is also real out there right now, as our businesses address that challenge. And it may that be some of that's contributed — or arisen — from the storm we previously discussed in Texas. When you take down that many petrochemical plants in one state that the rest of the country is dependent upon it, we're seeing it flow through, both on price, but overall, in scarcity of product, which obviously go together. But there's challenges. That's for sure.

芒格:量化基金做短期交易比长期交易更好

Munger: Quant funds do better with short-term trading than long-term trading

贝基·奎克这个问题来自比贾伊·科伊拉拉。“你怎么看量化基金?吉姆·西蒙斯的 Medallion 基金三十年来扣除费用后做到了 39% 的回报,这证明它有效。你会考虑在伯克希尔雇佣一位量化副手,和泰德(康姆斯)或托德(韦施勒)一起工作吗?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Bijay Koirala. "What do you think of quants? Jim Simon's Medallion Fund has done 39% net of fees for three decades, which proves that it works. Will you consider hiring a quant lieutenant in Berkshire to work alongside with Ted (Combs) or Todd (Weschler)?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我对第二部分说不,让查理来处理第一部分。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I'll say no to the second part, and I'll let Charlie handle the first part. (Laughter)

查理·芒格嗯,这挺有意思的。那个(听不清)量化基金在短期交易方面做得非常好,他们发现了起作用的微小算法,让它们有了预测价值。只要它们还在起作用,他们就一直做,只要钱不断进来。当他们开始用同样的系统只是找点小算法,试图机械地做长期股票预测时,成绩就没那么好了。而在短期交易上,他们发现如果做得太多,会毁掉自己的优势。所以,他们能赚的钱是有限度的。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, that's rather interesting. The (unintelligible) quant fund did fabulously on the short-term trading bit, they found little algorithms that worked to make them — they had predictive value. And as long as they kept working, they just kept doing it, as long as the money kept coming in. When they got to using the same system just to finding some little algorithm and trying to do it mechanically for long-term stock predictions, the record was not nearly as good. And in the short-term stuff, they found that if they tried to do it too much, they destroyed their own advantage. So, there was a limit on the amount they could make.

沃伦·巴菲特但他们非常、非常聪明。

WARREN BUFFETTBut they were very, very smart.

查理·芒格是的,他们变得非常富有。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes, they got very rich.

沃伦·巴菲特非常、非常聪明。

WARREN BUFFETTVery, very smart.

查理·芒格非常聪明,而且非常富有,没错。

CHARLIE MUNGERVery smart, and very rich, yes.

沃伦·巴菲特而且——

WARREN BUFFETTAnd —

查理·芒格顺便说一句,人品也非常高尚。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd very high grade, by the way.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格吉姆·西蒙斯。

CHARLIE MUNGERJim Simons.

沃伦·巴菲特但我们不是想靠买卖股票赚钱。我是说——(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTBut we're not trying to make money trading stocks. I mean — (Laughs)

查理·芒格不是。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo.

沃伦·巴菲特答案是——我们不认为自己知道怎么干。我是说,这不是——如果我们知道怎么靠买卖股票多赚很多钱,我们大概也会去买卖股票。但我们不知道怎么干。而且我们确实不信任任何其他人替我们干。就这么简单。

WARREN BUFFETTThe answer — we don't think we know how to do it. I mean, it isn't — if we knew how to make a lot more money trading stocks, we'd probably be trading stocks, too. But we don't know how to do it. And we really don't trust anybody else to do it for us. That simple.

伯克希尔股票组合的换手率没变,但“还是太高了”

Turnover in Berkshire's stock portfolio hasn't changed but "it's still too much"

贝基·奎克这个问题来自理查德·沃纳。“巴菲特先生几十年来一直倡导买入并持有的理念——或者说‘永远持有’都嫌时间太短。是我的误解,还是他的理念变了?最近股票组合的换手率似乎高了很多。”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Richard Werner. "Mr. Buffett has espoused for decades the philosophy of buy and hold — or hold forever was too short of a time period. Is it a misperception on my part, or has his philosophy changed? It seems to be a much greater turnover in the equity portfolio lately."

沃伦·巴菲特我不觉得换手率有那么高,我是说,考虑到——

WARREN BUFFETTI don't think there's that much turnover, I mean, with —

查理·芒格是不高,但还是太多了。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, but there's too much.

沃伦·巴菲特什么?

WARREN BUFFETTWhat?

查理·芒格实在是太多了。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERThere's way too much. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特对,那个——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, the —

查理·芒格还是太多。总量一点没少。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's still too much. It's the same amount.

沃伦·巴菲特对,我同意。(笑)实话说,我们持有——我们的生意就是股票,所以我们持有四五千亿——可能更多——的生意。我们根本不换手。我们不出售生意。我们大概可以——算了,不扯这个——我们能做什么。但就是不做。我们做得相对有限,就像查理说的,我们要是——要不是那样——如果我做得更少,会做得更好。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I'd agree with that. (Laughs) And the truth is, we own — our businesses are equities, so we own 400 or 500 billion in — maybe more — in businesses. We don't turn them over at all. We don't resell businesses. We could probably — well, we won't even get into that — what we could do. But we don't do it. And we do relatively little, and as Charlie says we'd do better if we — not if we — if I'd done less. (Laughter)

各州依然存在“极为、极为、极为”严重的养老金问题

States still have "big, big, big" pension problems

贝基·奎克这个问题来自丹尼尔·戈捷。“沃伦·巴菲特 2013 年致股东信第 21 页中间位置,预测未来十年你会看到大量关于养老金的相当负面的消息。鉴于近期发生的 COVID-19 等事件,且 2023 年距今只有两年,巴菲特先生是否愿意评论或修正他在 2013 年做出的预测?COVID-19 是推迟、加速、消除了这一趋势,还是没有改变它?”

BECKY QUICKThis is from Daniel Gauthier. "Warren Buffett's 2013 letter, in the middle of page 21, made a prediction that in the next decade you'll see lots of really bad news about pensions. "Given recent events like COVID-19 and that 2023 is two years away, would Mr. Buffett like to comment or revise his 2013 prediction? Did COVID-19 delay, accelerate, eliminate or not change it?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯(笑),从一个非常有限的——我是说,以一种糟糕的方式来看,COVID 改善了养老金状况,因为——如果你——你知道——领养老金的人少了。但在很多州,养老金状况非常糟糕。企业层面没那么糟,当然有一些多雇主计划明显存在问题。但说到底,这对各州来说是一个很棘手的问题——而且,当然——有些州——这些州现在会去华盛顿说,你知道,我们想要一大笔钱,因为疫情期间我们遭遇了这些可怕的事情,它们也确实遭遇了。但是,其中有些州存在巨额养老金缺口,如果它们——(笑)——如果它们拿到一次支票,还会再来要。这最终可能会成为一种事实上的联邦义务或类似的东西,而不再是州层面的问题。情况没有好转——完全没有好转,而且——显而易见。在某种程度上,随着利率下行,养老金管理者越来越不顾一切。于是,他们差不多会听信任何做出承诺的人——反正他们一直有这种倾向——他们会听信那些承诺以这样或那样方式替他们解决问题的人。而这行不通。所以,这是一个极其、极其、重大的问题。当然,最严重的问题在于——我们随便假设一个州,它有巨大的养老金缺口,甚至可能还包含生活成本调整条款,那才是致命一击。另外,如果你是个体,你可以搬走。查理不会为了省那 5 亿搬走——他不会搬到内华达或别的什么地方——但如果你是个体,你可以在一定程度上搬走,特别是如果你很有钱、年事已高且已退休。你实际上可以把资产从那种环境中抽走,转移到另一个并不那么急需的州。所以,随着时间的推移,你会看到逆向选择。但如果你是一家公司,你在那里建了工厂,你没法在 5 年、10 年或 20 年内搬走工厂。因此,随着个人的税基不断缩小,而这仅仅是因为人们选择退出那部分人口,作为公司却很难选择退出,所以在进入一个养老金缺口巨大、人口持续下降的州之前,你必须非常谨慎,想得足够长远。因为你将是最后一个留下来的人,而你——而养老金不会消失。我不认为——嗯,凡是抱着短期视角的人都不担心这个。我是说,只要能让我撑过下一次选举,我在这事上就没事了,你明白的。但是——你知道,我们不想——我们不会说我们的工厂将在某地存续 50 年,而在那里人口减半,更富裕的那部分人口急剧缩减——甚至更剧烈地缩减——而我们还在那儿留着一座有价值的工厂,还必须继续经营,而且——我们终究——无论如何——那都不会是一个好去处。

WARREN BUFFETTWell (laughs), in a very limited — I mean, in a terrible way, COVID improves the pension position, because — if you — it's, you know — you have less pensioners. But the pension situation is terrible in a great many states. It's not so bad at the corporate level, and there are some multi-employer plans, obviously, that have got problems. But basically, it's a terrible problem for the states — and, of course — some states — and states are going to go to Washington now and say, you know, we all want to get a lot of money because we had these terrible things happen to us during the pandemic, which they did. But, some of those states have enormous pension deficits, and they'll come again if they get — (laughs) — if they get a check once. It may turn out to be a federal obligation de facto or something than a state situation. It has not gotten better — it has not gotten better at all, and — obviously. And to a certain extent, the pension managers get more and more desperate as interest rates go down. So, they'll listen to almost anybody that promises them — they've always had that tendency anyway — but they'll listen to people that promise them that they're going to, one way or another, solve their problem for them. And that isn't going to work. So, it's a big, big, big problem. And of course, the real problem is — let's just take a hypothetical state that has a huge pension deficit and maybe even has a cost of living factor in it, which is going to really be a killer. And you can move, if you're an individual. Charlie won't move to save that 500 million — he's not going to move to Nevada or someplace — but you can move, if you're an individual, to some degree, particularly if you're rich and old and retired. And you can actually take away an asset from that kind of an environment and give it to another state that doesn't really need it as much. So, you'll get adverse selection over time. But if you're a company and you put a plant there, you can't move the plant in five or 10 or 20 years. So as the taxable base of individuals falls down, simply because people select out of being a part of the population, you can't select out very well as a corporation, so you have to be very careful and think a long time before you go into some state with a huge pension deficit and a declining population. Because you're going to be the last man left, and you're — and the pensions won't go away. And I don't think — well, anybody with a short-term outlook doesn't worry about that. I mean, just get me past the next election, and I'm all right on that one, you know. But the — you know, we don't want to be — we're not going to say our plant's going to be around for 50 years in someplace where the population gets halved and the richer part gets cut dramatically — even more dramatically — and we've still got a valuable plant there and we got to keep operating, and — We're going — one way or another, we're going — it's not going to be a good place to be.

贝基·奎克我们时间快到了,所以我来提最后一个问题。

BECKY QUICKAnd we're almost out of time, so I'll make this last question.

查理·芒格回答得真好,沃伦。这让我想起我以前的哈佛法学院教授,他常说:“告诉我你的问题是什么,我会试着让它对你来说更难办。”(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERThat's a good answer, Warren. It reminds me of my old Harvard law professor who used to say, "Let me know what your problem is, and I'll try and make it more difficult for you." (Laughter)

“怪事”已经发生,但我们始终尽力不让股东失望

"Strange things" have happened, but we always try not to disappoint the shareholders

贝基·奎克那么,这个问题来自扬·迈克尔·奥特林格,是提给沃伦和查理的。“我有一个问题,灵感源于查理的信条:‘你必须成为一台持续学习的机器。’那么,我的问题是:过去一年,你们两位学到的最重要的一课是什么?”

BECKY QUICKSo, this one comes from Jan Michael Ottlinger. It's for Warren and Charlie. "I have one question, which is inspired by Charlie's mantra, 'You have to be a continuous learning machine.' So, here's my question. What's the biggest lesson both of you learned during the last year?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我学到的最重要一课是更用心地听查理的话。(笑)在他对了而我错了的一些事情上,他确实是对的。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, my biggest lesson has been to listen more to Charlie. (Laughs) He's been right on some things that I've been wrong on.

查理·芒格嗯,我说不好。如果你对正在发生的事没有感到一丝困惑,那说明你根本没弄明白。(笑声)这确实——我们处于某种,可以说是,未经探索的领域。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I don't know. If you're not a little confused by what's going on, you don't understand it. (Laughter) It is — we're in, sort of, uncharted territory.

沃伦·巴菲特没错。我们以一种近乎疯狂的方式,其实很享受观察事态的发展。我是说,而且——这让我们——就像电影演到一半时,更有兴趣(笑)接着往下看更多——这是一部不同寻常的电影,但是——我们——我们的基本原则是,你知道——我们从这样一个事实出发:我们不想让把钱托付给我们的人失望,一切由此衍生。我们可能因为人们赚的钱不如他们期望的那么多而让他们失望,但我们不会——而且我们已经看到——在过去一年、15 个月里,世界上发生了一些奇怪的事情,而我们一直清楚一个事实:未来还会发生更奇怪的事。我想说,如果有什么变化,那就是这强化了,你知道,我们的愿望——嗯——想尽一切我们能想到的办法,确保伯克希尔在 50 年或 100 年后,你知道,仍然像现在这样组织完备,甚至更胜一筹。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We enjoy, in a crazy way, actually seeing what happens. I mean, and — This has — this has made us — halfway through the movie, much more interested (laughs) in watching even more of — This is an unusual movie, but — We — our basic principles of, you know — we start with the fact we don't want to disappoint the people who left their money with us, and things flow out of that. And we may disappoint people that they don't make quite as much money as they want, but we don't — And we've seen it — some strange things happen in the world in the last year, and 15 months, and we've always recognized the fact that stranger things are going to happen in the future. And I would say, if anything, it's reinforced, you know, our desire — well — to figure out everything possible we can do to make sure that Berkshire is, 50 or 100 years from now, you know, every bit the organization and then some that it is now. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,那当然是我们的目标。我认为这相当有希望实现。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, of course that's the idea. I think it's pretty likely to work.

沃伦·巴菲特对,嗯,要不是这样,我们也不会在这上面投入 55 年。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, we wouldn't have spent 55 years at it unless we did.

查理·芒格对。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特对。贝基,这是——这是最后一个问题吗?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. And Becky, is that — is that the last question?

贝基·奎克这是最后一个问题。

BECKY QUICKThat's the last question.

正式会议开始

Formal meeting begins

沃伦·巴菲特好,既然如此,我们进入正式会议。其他三位可以先退场了。接下来的环节不会那么精彩,但我们多少还是有个脚本。我不喜欢脚本,但——(笑)——这不合我的天性。代理书上的两项议题,其中一位提案人就在这栋楼里,会亲自陈述他的理由;另一位则录了音。我们稍后就处理。我们给两位都提供了选择——我是说,他们可以选择录音或者亲自来,我很高兴其中一位亲自到场。好,我们现在开始,会议正式开始。我是沃伦·巴菲特——当然,到了这会儿,你们应该都知道了(笑)——公司董事长。欢迎各位参加 2021 年度股东大会。马克·汉伯格是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的秘书,他将负责会议的书面记录。丽贝卡·阿米克已被任命为本次会议的选举监察官,她将核证董事选举及本次会议待表决动议的计票结果。本次会议的指定代理投票人是沃尔特·斯科特和马克·汉伯格。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, well, in that case, we'll move on to the meeting. The other three fellows here can leave. It's not going to be that exciting, but we've got a script here, even, somewhat. I don't like scripts, but they — (laughs) — not my nature. And one of the proposers for the two items on the proxy is here in the building to present his argument personally, and the other one has recorded it. So, we'll get to that in just a minute, but — We offered both of — I mean, they either could record or come, and I'm happy one of them came. So here we go, and the meeting will now come to order. I am Warren Buffett — not that you didn't know by this time (laughs) — chairman of the board of directors of the company. I welcome you to the 2021 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Marc Hamburg is secretary of Berkshire Hathaway. He will make a written record of the proceedings. Rebecca Amick has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting. She will certify to the count of votes cast in the election of directors and the motions to be voted upon at this meeting. The named proxy holders for this meeting are Walter Scott and Marc Hamburg.

法定人数确认

Quorum

沃伦·巴菲特请问秘书,是否有关于有权投票并已派代表出席本次会议的伯克希尔流通股数量的报告?

WARREN BUFFETTDoes the secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding entitled to vote and represented at the meeting?

马克·汉伯格好的。正如本次会议通知所附的委托书中所指出的,此次会议记录日期为 2021 年 3 月 3 日,该通知已寄送给所有该日登记在册的股东。截至记录日,伯克希尔·哈撒韦发行在外的 A 类普通股为 639,747 股,每股对会议审议的动议享有一票表决权;发行在外的 B 类普通股为 1,335,074,355 股,每股对会议审议的动议享有 1/10,000 票表决权。在上述股份中,有 456,040 股 A 类股和 663,442,069 股 B 类股已通过截至 4 月 29 日(周四)晚间收到的代理投票函,在本次会议上获得代表表决。

MARC HAMBURGYes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent to all shareholders of record on March 3rd, 2021, the record day for this meeting, there were 639,747 shares of Class A Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each entitled to one vote on motions considered at the meeting, and 1,335,074,355 shares of Class B Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each share entitled to 1/10,000th of one vote on motions considered at the meeting. Of that number, 456,040 Class A shares and 663,442,069 Class B shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through Thursday evening, April 29th.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。上述数量已达到法定人数,我们即刻进入会议议程。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you. That number represents a quorum, and we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting.

批准上次会议纪要

Minutes of previous meeting approved

沃伦·巴菲特第一项议程是宣读上次股东大会的会议纪要。有请黛比·博萨内克小姐向会议提出动议。

WARREN BUFFETTThe first order of business will a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders. I recognize Miss Debbie Bosanek, who will place a motion before the meeting.

黛比·博萨内克我提议,免去宣读上次股东大会会议纪要的程序,并批准该纪要。

DEBBIE BOSANEKI move that the reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders be dispensed with and the minutes be approved.

沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?

WARREN BUFFETTDo I hear a second?

女声我附议。

FEMALE VOICEI second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特动议通过。

WARREN BUFFETTThe motion is carried.

董事会成员选举

Board of directors elected

沃伦·巴菲特下一项议程是选举董事。我请黛比·博萨内克小姐就选举董事事宜向会议提出动议。

WARREN BUFFETTThe next item of business is to elect directors. I recognize Miss Debbie Bosanek to place a motion before the meeting with respect to election of directors.

黛比·博萨内克我动议选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、格雷格·阿贝尔、霍华德·巴菲特、史蒂文·伯克、肯尼斯·钱纳特、苏珊·德克尔、戴维·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·盖曼、阿吉特·贾恩、托马斯·墨菲、罗纳德·奥尔森、沃尔特·斯科特和梅里尔·威特默为董事。

DEBBIE BOSANEKI move that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Gregory Abel, Howard Buffett, Steven Burke, Kenneth Chenault, Susan Decker, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Ajit Jain, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, Walter Scott, and Meryl Witmer be elected as directors.

女声我附议。

FEMALE VOICEI second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特已有人动议并有人附议:选举博萨内克小姐动议中提名的 14 位人士为董事。该提名已准备就绪,等待表决。汉堡先生,你准备好后,可以公布阿米克小姐初步报告中的投票结果。

WARREN BUFFETTIt has been moved and seconded that the 14 individuals named in Miss Bosanek's motion be elected as directors. The nominations are ready to be acted upon. Mr. Hamburg, when you are ready, you may provide the voting results from Miss Amick's preliminary report.

马克·汉堡阿米克小姐报告称,根据截至上周四晚间收到的委托书,代理投票人已为每位被提名人投下不少于 473,474 票。阿米克小姐的报告还指出,该票数超过所有已发行的 A 类和 B 类股份总投票数的半数。报告同时说明,特拉华州法律所要求的投票精确计票证明将附于本次会议纪要。

MARC HAMBURGMiss Amick has reported that the ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast not less than 473,474 votes for each nominee. Miss Amick's report also states that this number exceeds a majority of the number of the total votes of all Class A and Class B shares outstanding. The report also states that the certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,汉堡先生。14 位被提名人已当选董事。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you Mr. Hamburg. The 14 nominees have been elected as directors.

气候变化股东提案

Climate change shareholder proposal

沃伦·巴菲特接下来的两项议程涉及两份股东提案,均载于可在 BerkshireHathaway.com 上查阅的委托书声明中。如果你还没有读过这些提案,请访问 BerkshireHathaway.com,因为它们是很有意思的提案。提案人的观点在那里阐述得很清楚,我认为我们的观点也是如此。欢迎各位阅读。回到正题,第一份提案要求公司发布年度评估,说明公司如何管理物理和转型气候相关风险与机遇。董事会已建议股东投票反对该提案。我现在请联邦爱马仕的代表蒂姆·尤曼斯先生来阐述这份提案。我想我们已经与尤曼斯先生连线了。

WARREN BUFFETTThe next two items of business relate to two shareholder proposals that are each set forth in the proxy statement that can be accessed at BerkshireHathaway.com. If you haven't read those proposals, just go to BerkshireHathaway.com, because they're interesting proposals. And the proponents' views are set forth well there, and I think our views are set forth. And I welcome you reading it. To get back to the script, the first proposal requests that the company publish an annual assessment addressing how the company manages physical and transitional climate-related risks and opportunities. The directors have recommended that the shareholders vote against the proposal. I will now recognize Tim Youmans, a representative of Federated Hermes to present the proposal. I think we're connected up with Mr. Youmans.

蒂姆·尤曼斯感谢主席——感谢董事会主席和各位股东。我是蒂姆·尤曼斯,联邦爱马仕北美 EOS 负责人,今天代表第二项提案的共同发起方——联邦爱马仕、加州公务员退休基金(CalPERS)、魁北克储蓄投资集团(CDPQ),以及我们共同代表的数百万最终受益人。超过一年来,母公司对于共同发起方讨论其缺乏气候相关财务披露的请求一直不予回应。为了能与母公司进行某种程度的对话,我们联合提交了一份提案,要求伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事会每年发布一份报告,评估公司如何管理物理和转型气候相关风险与机遇,内容包括:在具有重大性的情况下,对子公司和母公司进行气候相关财务报告;董事会如何监督合并企业的气候相关风险;以及母公司及其子公司设定基于科学的温室气体减排目标的可行性,这些目标应与将气候变化限制在远低于 2 度相一致。我们要求该年度评估遵循气候相关财务信息披露工作组(TCFD)的建议。董事会辩称,由于公司以极其分散的方式管理其运营业务,且几乎没有集中或整合的业务功能,因此认为该股东提案与伯克希尔的文化不符。共同发起方指出,尽管伯克希尔有其文化和分散管理,股东却只能购买合并母公司实体的股份,无法购买个别子公司的股份,而这些子公司可能具备、也可能不具备董事会在反对声明中所提及的气候披露。公司持有超过 1000 亿美元的现金等价物。共同发起方以及 54 万亿美元规模的气候行动 100+ 投资者联盟中的许多成员,希望母公司投入更多资源用于可持续发展,减轻气候变化和能源转型带来的财务影响。公司的可持续发展网站仅包含指向 15 个子公司的链接。我们注意到母公司有 60 家子公司。对于认为可持续发展风险(尤其是气候风险)可能对母公司长期未来前景具有重大性的股东而言,这种披露是不充分的,当然,我们认可公司过去强劲的财务表现。毫无疑问,气候变化和向低碳经济的能源转型对经济构成系统性风险。公司的审计师德勤在其网站上表示:“气候变化不是一个选择,而是数十亿个选择。我们都不得不采取行动。”德勤在公司的审计中并未评估与气候变化相关的财务影响。当共同发起方询问为何在伯克希尔这类审计中排除了气候变化影响时,德勤未能提供任何有意义的答复。伯克希尔前董事比尔·盖茨在其新书中写道:“公司需要承担更多风险以避免气候灾难”,并且“股东和董事会成员必须更愿意分担这种风险,向高管们明确表示,即使最终未能成功,他们也会支持明智的投资。”这是盖茨的立场,而主席正是盖茨基金会的三位受托人之一。我们请董事会承担文化风险,做出发布年度气候相关财务评估所需的适度集中化。我们所有人都需要立即采取行动,限制气候变化对我们长期可持续性的影响。我们强烈敦促伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东支持第二项提案,因为气候风险可能对母公司具有重大性。我们有一个问题请教主席:您能否改变主意,用您的个人股份投票支持第二项提案?谢谢。

TIM YOUMANSI thank the chair — I thank the chair of the board and fellow shareholders. I'm Tim Youmans, Lead North America EOS at Federated Hermes, here today on behalf of item two cosponsors Federated Hermes, CalPERS, the California Public Employees' Retirement System, and CDPQ, Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, and our combined millions of ultimate beneficiaries. For well more than a year, the parent company has been unresponsive to the co-sponsors' requests to discuss the parent company's lack of climate-related financial disclosures. In order to have some kind of dialogue with the parent company, we have co-filed a proposal that Berkshire Hathaway's board issue a report annually assessing how the company manages physical and transitional climate-related risks and opportunities, including climate-related financial reporting, where material, for subsidiaries and for the parent company, how the board oversees climate-related risks for the combined enterprise, and the feasibility of the parent company and its subsidiaries establishing science-based greenhouse gas reduction targets consistent with limiting climate change to well below 2 degrees. We ask that the annual assessment follows the recommendations of the task force on climate-related financial disclosures, TCFD. The board argues that since it manages its operating businesses on an unusually decentralized basis, and there are few centralized or integrated business functions, the board believes that the shareholder proposal is inconsistent with Berkshire's culture. The co-sponsors note, despite Berkshire's culture and decentralized management, shareholders can only purchase shares in the combined parent company entity. Shares cannot be purchased in the individual subsidiaries that may or may not have the climate disclosures that the board cites in its opposition statement. The company has more than a hundred billion dollars in cash equivalence. The co-sponsors, and many in the $54 trillion climate action 100-plus investor coalition, want the parent company to put more resources into sustainability and in mitigating the financial impact of climate change and the energy transition. The company's sustainability website consists only of links to 15 subsidiaries. We note the parent company has 60 subsidiaries. This is insufficient disclosure to shareholders who think that sustainability risks, especially climate risks, may be material to the parent company's long-term future prospects, of course, recognizing the company's strong past financial performance. No doubt, climate change and the energy transition to a low-carbon economy pose a systemic risk to the economy. The company's auditor, Deloitte, says on its website, "Climate change is not a choice, it's billions of them. We are all compelled to act." Deloitte does not assess climate change-related financial impacts in the company's audit. When asked by the co-sponsors why climate change impacts are excluded from audits like Berkshire's, Deloitte failed to provide any meaningful reply. In his new book, former Berkshire director Bill Gates says, "Companies accepting more risk is needed to avoid climate disaster," and "shareholders and board members will have to be more willing to share in this risk, making it clear to executives that they'll back smart investments even if they don't ultimately pan out." This is the Gates position, and the chair is one of three Gates Foundation trustees. We ask the board to take the cultural risk for a modest degree of centralization needed to issue the annual climate-related financial assessment. We all need to take action now to limit climate change impact on our long-term sustainability. We strongly urge Berkshire Hathaway shareholders to support item two, as climate risk may be material to the parent company. And we have a question for the chair. Will you please change your mind and vote your personal shares in support of item two? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,尤曼斯先生。该提案现已准备就绪,等待表决。汉堡先生,你准备好后,可以公布阿米克小姐初步报告中披露的投票结果。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Mr. Youmans. The proposal is now ready to be acted upon. Mr. Hamburg, when you're ready, you may provide the voting results disclosed in Miss Amick's preliminary report.

马克·汉堡阿米克小姐的报告称,根据截至上周四晚间收到的委托书,代理投票人投了 131,376 票赞成,385,336 票反对。由于反对票数超过就该事项正确投出的所有 A 类和 B 类股份总投票数的半数,该动议未获通过。特拉华州法律所要求的投票精确计票证明将附于本次会议纪要。

MARC HAMBURGMs. Amick's report states that the ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 131,376 votes for the motion and 385,336 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,汉堡先生。提案未获通过。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Mr. Hamburg. The proposal fails.

员工多元化股东提案

Employee diversity shareholder proposal

沃伦·巴菲特第二项股东提案要求伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下的公司每年发布报告,评估其在多元化与包容性方面的努力。董事会已建议股东对该提案投反对票。现在,我将播放由 As You Sow 代表梅雷迪思·本顿提供的录音,以阐述该提案。

WARREN BUFFETTThe second shareholder proposal requests that Berkshire Hathaway companies annually publish reports assessing their diversity and inclusion efforts. The directors have recommended that the shareholders vote against the proposal. I will now ask that the audiotape provided by Meredith Benton, a representative of As You Sow, be played to present the proposal.

梅雷迪斯·本顿你好。我是梅雷迪斯·本顿,代表非营利倡导组织 As You Sow 发言,同时也是咨询公司 Whistle Stop Capital 的首席执行官。我正式提出第三项提案,要求伯克希尔·哈撒韦报告其如何评估多元化、公平性与包容性工作,包括董事会评估其多元化和包容性项目有效性的流程,以及如何评估与招聘、晋升和留任相关的目标、指标与趋势。如果伯克希尔大部分运营部门没有管理其多元化项目,这意味着什么?这意味着伯克希尔旗下的公司错失了包容性职场文化所能带来的好处,例如,根据相关研究,这些好处包括:招揽顶尖人才、优秀员工,更好理解消费者偏好,形成更强的领导技能组合,进行更明智的战略讨论,以及改善风险管理。多元化和包容性报告的最佳实践已经存在,并且在各公司之间日益标准化。伯克希尔旗下的公司可以通过汇总后的 EEO-1 表格公布其员工构成。这份表格已经提交给平等就业机会委员会,因此公司无需额外费力收集或核对数据。这是一份人人都讨厌的表格,但它是标准化的,各公司通常会公布其 EEO-1 表格,并附上对自身内部架构和工作方式做出的解释。标普 100 指数成分股中有 72 家公司公开分享,或已承诺分享这份表格。据我所知,目前没有一家伯克希尔旗下的公司这样做——一家都没有。公布员工构成数据,类似于一张反映某一时点多元化状况的资产负债表。正如资产负债表本身不足以判断一家公司财务实力的强弱,EEO-1 表格本身也不足以评估多元化、公平性与包容性项目的有效性。公司的包容性数据,即多元化员工的招聘、留任和晋升率,也必须予以分享。投资者需要全面了解伯克希尔员工的实际体验。理论上,公司应该愿意分享其留任数据。如果这是一家值得为之工作的好公司,人们自然愿意留下来,那么理论上,公司也应该愿意分享其晋升数据。如果一家公司招聘优秀员工并善待他们,这些优秀员工在获得指导和经过时间沉淀后,自然会得到晋升。标普 500 指数成分股中,目前有 70% 在不同程度上分享多元化和包容性数据——70%。而伯克希尔旗下的公司中,只有 22% 这样做,无论何种程度,并且只有四家伯克希尔旗下的公司以任何有意义的深度讨论职场公平。伯克希尔在这方面是一个严重偏离同行的异类。伯克希尔以高度分权而闻名。其各个业务部门独立运营。然而,如果一个问题没有被总部传达为重要问题,我们能指望运营部门会将其作为优先事项吗?关键在于:巴菲特先生、芒格先生、董事会成员以及总部团队,你们每个人或许确实在切实地、名副其实地雇用、指导并提拔最适合某项工作的人,无论其性别、种族、民族、性取向或任何固有特征。但我们无法断定你们的每一位员工、经理和招聘主管都抱有同样的心态。伯克希尔总部不能被动地坐视不管,寄希望于其独立的业务部门能自行解决各自职场中的偏见和歧视。积极管理、主动关注,必不可少。在反对该提案的声明中,董事会表示:“伯克希尔董事长兼首席执行官巴菲特先生,50 多年来为伯克希尔及其员工奠定了上行下效的基调。”声明还指出:“巴菲特先生一贯反对那些看得见或看不见的、压制多元化或宗教包容的做法。”巴菲特先生对其自身公司以及更广泛的商界拥有非凡的影响力。他反对压制多元化的做法。鉴于此,我们请求他以自己那无可仿效的语言、自己那无可仿效的方式,果断地站上前台,详细阐明多元化和包容性对他的公司有多么重要,他抱有怎样的期望,希望看到怎样的努力,以及将用什么指标来评判是否成功。行动胜于言辞,但在此事上的沉默,却说明了一切。谢谢。

MEREDITH BENTONHello. I am Meredith Benton. I am speaking on behalf of the nonprofit advocacy organization, As You Sow, and I am also the CEO of the consultancy Whistle Stop Capital. I formally move proposal number three, asking for Berkshire Hathaway to report on how it assesses diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts, including the process that the board follows for determining the effectiveness of its diversity and inclusion programs, and how it assesses goals, metrics, and trends related to recruitment, promotion, and retention. What would it mean if the majority of Berkshire's operating units weren't managing their diversity programs? It would mean that Berkshire companies are missing out on the benefits that an inclusive workplace culture can provide, such as, according to the studies, access to top talent, to good people, better understanding of consumer preferences, a stronger mix of leadership skills, informed strategy discussions, and improved risk management. Best practices in diversity and inclusion reporting exist and are increasingly standardized across companies. Berkshire companies can publish their workforce composition through their consolidated EEO-1 form. This form is already submitted to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, so it requires no additional effort on behalf of the companies to collect or reconcile. It is a universally disliked form, but it is standardized, and companies will often publish their EEO-1 along with an explanation of their own internal structures and ways. Seventy-two of the S&P 100 companies publicly share, or have committed to share, this form. To my knowledge, no Berkshire company currently does — not one. The release of workforce composition data is akin to a balance sheet detailing diversity at a single point in time. Just as a balance sheet would by itself be insufficient to identify the strength of a company's financials, so, too, the EEO-1, by itself, is insufficient in assessing effectiveness of DEI programs. The company's inclusion data, the hiring, retention, and promotion rates of diverse employees must also be shared. Investors need to have a full understanding of the actual experience of Berkshire employees. In theory, companies should want to share their retention data. If it's a good company to work for, people want to stay, and they should want to share their promotion data, in theory. If it's a company that hires good people and treats them well, those good people will ascend, with mentorship and time. Seventy percent of the S&P 500 currently share diversity and inclusion data at some level — 70%. Only 22% of Berkshire companies do, at any level, and only four Berkshire companies speak to workplace equity with any meaningful depth. Berkshire is a serious outlier here. Berkshire's famously decentralized. Its units operate independently. Yet, if an issue isn't conveyed as important from headquarters, can we expect it to be prioritized by an operating unit? Here's the thing. Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, board members, and the team headquarters, you may each individually truly and genuinely hire, mentor, and promote the best people for the job regardless of their gender, race, ethnicity, sexual orientation, or any immutable characteristic. But we can't conclude that this is the mindset of each of your employees, managers, and hiring directors. Berkshire headquarters can't sit passively and hope that their independent units are addressing bias and discrimination in their workplace. Active management, proactive attention, is needed. In its statement in opposition to the proposal, the board said, "Mr. Buffett, Berkshire's chairman and CEO, has set the tone at the top for Berkshire and its employees for over 50 years." It also states, "Mr. Buffett has a record of opposing efforts seen or unseen to suppress diversity or religious inclusion." Mr. Buffett holds extraordinary influence over his own companies and over the broader business community. He opposes efforts to suppress diversity. Given that, we ask for him to step forward decisively, in his own inimitable words, in his own inimitable way, to detail how important diversity and inclusion is to his companies, the expectations he has, and the efforts he expects to see, the metrics that will be used to judge success. Actions speak louder than words, but silence here speaks volumes. Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。现在可以对该提案进行表决了。汉伯格先生,你准备好的话,可以宣读阿米克女士初步报告中披露的投票结果。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you. The proposal is now ready to be acted upon. Mr. Hamburg, when you are ready, you may provide the voting results disclosed in Miss Amick's preliminary report.

马克·汉伯格阿米克女士的报告称,根据截至上周四晚间收到的代理委托书,代理持有人所投的票为:124,842 票赞成该动议,391,662 票反对该动议。由于反对该动议的票数已超过就该事项正式投出的所有 A 类和 B 类股份所代表票数的多数,该动议未获通过。特拉华州法律要求的精确票数认证证明,将随本次会议的会议记录一并存档。

MARC HAMBURGMs. Amick's report states that the ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 124,842 votes for the motion and 391,662 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,汉伯格先生。该提案未获通过。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Mr. Hamburg. The proposal fails.

会议休会

Meeting adjourns

黛比·博萨内克我提议——

DEBBIE BOSANEKI move —

沃伦·巴菲特博萨内克小姐?请讲。

WARREN BUFFETTMiss Bosanek? Yeah.

黛比·博萨内克我提议本次会议休会。

DEBBIE BOSANEKI move that this meeting be adjourned.

一位女士我附议休会动议。

FEMALE VOICEI second the motion to adjourn.

沃伦·巴菲特休会动议已提出并获附议。本次会议现在休会,我只想补充最后一点:我十分希望,而且我认为可能性相当大,我们明年能在奥马哈举办这场会议。我希望我们能迎来创纪录的伯克希尔股东出席人数,我们期待——我们相当期待——在奥马哈见到各位——我想那将是明年 4 月 30 日,但我们稍后才能确定这个日期。那么,感谢各位收看,我们明年见,并希望,是在奥马哈见。

WARREN BUFFETTMotion to adjourn has been made and seconded. This meeting is adjourned, and I would just like to add one final comment that I really hope, and I think the odds are very, very good that we get to hold this next year in Omaha. And I hope that we get a record turnout of Berkshire shareholders, and we look forward to — we really look forward — to meeting you in Omaha — I guess it'll be next April 30th, but we'll be sure of that date a little later. So, thank you for watching and we will see you next year, and hopefully, in Omaha.