2022 年股东大会 · 下午场
吉米·巴菲特浮筒船卖得很快
The Jimmy Buffett pontoon boats are going fast
沃伦·巴菲特好了,我们继续开会。我听说已经卖出了 15 艘(吉米·巴菲特派对浮筒船),那是刚才在外面有人告诉我的——所以,趁还有货赶紧买。第一艘船大概要等一年才能交付。但预订的人能享受 10% 的折扣,不管怎么说吧。我自己也订了一艘。隔壁展厅那边进展顺利。上半场我们只收到了七个问题,这是新低。所以我们尽量加快点节奏。我真想不明白为什么拖得那么慢。我是说,是谁——是谁一直在那儿说个不停?(笑声)好了。
WARREN BUFFETTOK, let's reconvene. I think we sold 15 [Jimmy Buffett party pontoon] boats, so far, I was told that a while — a little a while ago out there — so get them while they last. We won't have the first one available for delivery for about a year. But people are getting 10% off, whatever that means, who order one. And I've ordered one myself. And we're – things are going well in the other room. And we only got seven questions, which is a new low, in the first half. So, we'll try and move a little faster. I can't imagine why it went that slowly. I mean, who's — who's doing all that talking? (Laughter) OK.
巴菲特:我已经“明显退后”,不再表达政治观点
Buffett" I've "decidedly backed off" from expressing political views
沃伦·巴菲特4 号台。
WARREN BUFFETTStation four.
杰夫·武沃洛伊沃伦、查理,你们好。我是来自旧金山的股东杰夫·武沃洛伊。近几年,美国公司在政治领域扮演了更积极的角色。无论是在股东或员工团体的要求下,反对特定法案,还是推动各种社会议题。这些运动的目标固然值得称赞,但有可能疏远相当一部分客户和员工。CEO 该如何决定,在哪些问题上表态,或者公司到底该不该参与政治领域?谢谢。
JEFF VUVOLOYHi Warren and Charlie. I'm Jeff Vuvoloy (PH), shareholder from San Francisco. In recent years, American companies have taken on a more active role in the political realm. Whether it is speaking out against specific bills, or promoting various social causes, often at the behest of shareholder or employee groups. While the goals of these movements can be laudable, they risk alienating significant portions of customer and employee bases. How should CEOs decide which issues to take a stand on, or whether their companies should engage in the political realm at all? Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特这个问题问得特别好,显然我也没少琢磨。我曾经说过,“担任伯克希尔 CEO 时,我不会把公民身份放在盲目信托里。”但我也学到了一点——你在任何话题上公开发声,能让你一时高兴的人,远不如让你永远生气的人多。在某些话题上,他们会报复我们的公司,这意味着我们的一些员工会被解雇,股东也会受损。我真的觉得,在所有可能让人极为恼火的话题上都插一嘴,就那么重要吗?值得让他们付出这样的代价吗?我得出的结论是:不值得。我凭什么要去伤害那边房间里为伯克希尔做各种事的人?我凭什么要因为你说了什么,让全国 20% 的人立刻反对,有时还会气得要报复?既然他们没法冲我喊,就可能发起针对我们公司或其他东西的运动。所以,就我而言,我不会到处去表态,让人家不说“沃伦·巴菲特说”,而是说“伯克希尔·哈撒韦”,或者“伯克希尔·哈撒韦的沃伦·巴菲特”。我会被识别出来。我不希望让各位的生活——我决定了,我不会这么做。如果我觉得公民身份和公开发声那么重要,那我就该辞掉工作。我宁愿放弃我最爱的这份工作。(笑)我不想那样做。所以,我已经明显退后了,我不想说任何被归到伯克希尔名下的话,让别人为我的话承担后果。这就是我的立场。我可以告诉你,在大多数公司,或者很多公司——这么说不太公平。但在很多公司,CEO 必须考虑董事会跟他们说什么,他们特意选那些代表不同利益群体的人进董事会,有时立场很强硬。如果他们认为利益相关者——这个群体、那个群体、另一个群体——董事会就会施压,让他们表态。这是个我们不打算踏入的领域。查理,你怎么看?
WARREN BUFFETTThat's a terrific question, and that is one obviously I've had to think about plenty. And at one point I said, "I don't put my citizenship in a blind trust when I take the job as CEO of Berkshire." But I've also learned that — you can make a whole lot more people sustainably mad than you can make temporarily happy by speaking out on any subject. And on certain subjects, they will take it out on our companies, and that means that the people that are employed by us, some of them we would end up letting go. It means that the shareholders get hurt. And do I really think that it's so important that I talk on every possible subject that people can get very upset about? Whether they should be asked to pay that price? And I've come to the conclusion, the answer is no. Why in the world do I want to hurt the people in that other room that do all kinds of things for Berkshire. Why do I want to hurt you because I say something that 20% of the country is going to instantly disagree with, and sometimes they will be so upset about it that they will try and take it out. And since they can't scream at me, they may have campaigns against our companies or anything else. So I think, as it applies to me, I'm not going to go around and take positions where instead of saying, "Warren Buffett says," it will say, you know, "Berkshire Hathaway," or "Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway." I get identified. And I do not want to make the lives of you — and I've just decided I'm not going to be doing that. And if I want to do that, I should quit my job. If I think my citizenship, speaking out is that important, I'll give up what I love the most, which is having this job. (Laughs) I don't want to do that. So, I've decidedly backed off, I don't want to say anything that'll get attributed, basically to Berkshire, and have somebody else bear the consequences of what I talk about. So that's where I stand. And I can tell you that at most companies, or many — that isn't fair. But in the great many companies, you know, CEOs, they have to think about what their board says to them, and they've made a point of electing people to their boards, because it's socially acceptable, who represent different constituencies, sometimes very strongly. And if they think their stakeholders, for this group and that group and that group, they'll get pressured by their boards to take positions. And it's just a territory that we're not going to get into. Charlie, how do you feel about that?
查理·芒格嗯,比你还得谨慎,我得非常注意我说的话。(笑声)现在——(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, even more than you, I have to be very careful about what I say. (Laughter) Now — (Laughter)
男声是啊。(掌声)
MALE VOICEYeah. It's — (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特我俩的区别是,我忍不住多说一点。(笑声)我看报纸标题,一次又一次,写着“巴菲特在买某某”。其实我没有在买某某,是伯克希尔·哈撒韦在买,可能是伯克希尔另外两个人的工作。写文章的人根本不知道是我推动的,还是我压根没听说过。但标题要是写“巴菲特在买这个”,比写“伯克希尔·哈撒韦,而且我们不知道是不是他手下的人干的”,更能吸引读者。标题就是为了把人拉进故事。所以——这混淆得够呛。最简单的办法就是闭嘴,别让一大群人问那些他们本来没想问的迷人问题。但我很高兴你问了这个问题。这个问题问得好。我可能想这个问题,比想这只股票那只股票便宜不便宜,想得还多。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd the difference between the two of us is I can't resist saying a little more. (Laughter) I see headlines in papers, just time after time after time, that say, "Buffett's buying such and such." Well, I'm not buying such and such. Berkshire Hathaway is buying it, and it may be the work of two other people that work at Berkshire." And people who write the articles don't have the faintest idea whether it was at my instigation or whether I'd even heard of it. But the headline will attract more people if it says, "Buffett buying this," than if it says, "Berkshire Hathaway, and we don't know whether it's the people that work for him or him." The headline is designed to bring people into the story. So — The confusion is terrible. And the easiest thing to do is to basically shut up and not have a bunch of people fascinating questions that they didn't ask for in the first place. But I'm glad you asked that question. That is a good question. And I probably thought more about that question than I think about whether this stock or that stock is cheap.
伯克希尔不是政治武器
Berkshire is not a "weapon" to be used politically
沃伦·巴菲特说到这里,我们转向——好,让我看看。那是 4 号台。我们回到贝基那里。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd with that, we'll go to — well, let's see. That was station four. We'll go back to Becky.
贝基·奎克趁这个话题,我们来看大卫·卡斯的问题。他写道:“拜登总统 2023 财年预算案提议,对净资产至少 1 亿美元的家庭,未实现资本利得征收 20% 的最低税。你对此怎么看?”如果你不想回答,也许查理可以。(笑声)
BECKY QUICKOn that note, let's go to a question from David Cass. He writes in, "President Biden's fiscal 2023 budget request would impose a 20% minimum tax on the unrealized capital gains for households worth at least $100 million. What are your views on this issue?" And if you don't want to answer, maybe Charlie does. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们看看。(笑声)老实说,我们俩都会受影响。要是 1 亿美元的门槛,我们俩都会被波及。所以我们的观点是——我没什么观点。查理?我没有想让别人归到——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we'll find out. (Laughter) And in all honesty, we should both say that we would be affected by it. If it's $100 million, we'd both be affected. So our point of view is — and I have no point of view. Charlie? I have no point of view that I would want attributed to —
查理·芒格这种事情,我倾向于不碰所得税的事。我的原则是,不管通过什么税,我都照缴,我不想参与税收方面的游说。
CHARLIE MUNGERI tend to stay out of the income tax things like this. My policy is I pay whatever taxes they pass, and I don't want to engage in lobbying about taxes.
沃伦·巴菲特对。(掌声)我再补充一点。游说这玩意儿真让人恶心。我为一个候选人干过一次,结果跟一群香烟公司的说客待在一个房间里。他们不在乎内布拉斯加,不在乎任何事,他们没有任何立场。他们在那儿,就是为了递上一笔捐款。我只是个方便的道具。你知道吗,那感觉简直让人想吐。另一方面,我们经营铁路、能源和保险业务,这些行业都受到广泛监管。我也不想成为铁路行业里唯一不加入铁路协会的公司,或者保险行业里唯一不加入保险协会的公司。所以,其他人大可以有理由认为我们是在搭便车。因此,我通常告诉经理们:“别把伯克希尔的钱花在你喜欢的候选人身上。别给供应商施压——”伯克希尔不是一件用来——组织里某些人曾这么用过。但别用它来从别人那里逼钱,为了你喜欢的人,或者你老婆上过的学校,或者别的什么。这种情况多少还是会发生。但我没告诉员工不能加入任何行业协会。查理写过一封有史以来最棒的信,如果你去搜索,输入——我记得是 1989 年芒格储蓄贷款什么的——我们退出了美国储蓄贷款联盟,我想是那样的。我们警告过他们,说:“我们实在无法忍受你们对这个国家做的事。”一群好人聚在一起,但他们认定为了储蓄贷款机构的利益,就得这样做那样做。我们警告过他们,最后查理写了封信,就像我说的,可以搜到。这封信应该是最值得骄傲的——肯定是伯克希尔有史以来最值得骄傲的信件之一。他直接说,“我们再也受不了了,我们退出。”但这是件非常难做的事。到处批评(笑)你的同事和邻居,是一种很难的生活方式。他们完全是体面人,但他们经营的机构所做的事,他们自己也很反感。我们支持旗下一些能源子公司的活动。我不想看到有人出于个人原因做这些事。我是说,如果那样,他们就有麻烦了。但我没说不准他们做,因为我不想在事情发生时捆住他们的手脚,本质上要么是行业内的竞争对手,要么是行业本身(听不清),我们不会独自站出来说,“好了,我们道德上更优越,所以你们掏钱买账吧。”我的立场就是这样。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Applause) And I would add one thing. Lobbying is really distasteful. I once did it for a candidate, and I ended up in a room with a bunch of lobbyists for cigarette companies. They didn't care about Nebraska. They didn't care about — and they didn't have anything. They were there because they were handing over a contribution. And I was a convenient accessory. And, you know, it made you want to throw up, basically. On the other hand, we operate in the railroad business, energy business, insurance business, and they're extensively regulated. And I don't also want to be the only railroad that stays out of the railroad group. The only insurance company that stays out of the insurance group. So, you know, other people can rightly figure that we're a free rider under those circumstances. So I tell the managers generally, you know, "Don't spend Berkshire's money on candidates that you like. Don't pressure suppliers to do —" Berkshire is not a weapon to use — and it's been used by certain people in the organization. But don't use it to muscle money out of anybody else for who you like or what school your wife went to or whatever it may be. And some of it goes on anyway. But I don't tell our people to don't belong to any trade associations. Charlie wrote one of the great letters of all time, and if you go to search, type in I think 1989 Munger savings and loan or something. We resigned from the U.S. Savings and Loan League, I guess it was. And we warned them. We said, "We just cannot stand, you know, what you're doing to the country." And when a bunch of very nice people get together, but they decided it's in the interest of their savings and loan to do this or that. And we warned them, and finally Charlie wrote a letter, which is, like I say, available on search. And it should be one of the proudest letters — certainly one of the proudest letters that's ever come out of Berkshire. And he just said, "We can't stand it anymore, and we're resigning." But that's a very tough thing to do. It's a tough way to live, to just go around criticizing (Laughs) the people you work with, and neighbors. And they're perfectly decent people, but they're running institutions that are doing things that are very distasteful to them. And we belong, support some of our subsidiaries in energy. And, you know, I don't want to find people are doing it for personal reasons. I mean in that case, they're in trouble. But I don't say they can't do it, because I don't want their hands tied if something comes up, and essentially either their competitors within the industry or the industry (UNINTEL), we're not going to stand alone and say, "Well, we're morally superior, so you put your money up and buy it." So that's where I end up. Charlie?
查理·芒格我没啥好补充的。
CHARLIE MUNGERI've got nothing to add.
沃伦·巴菲特行。他没话说,我倒从来不烦,但他好像卡在刚才那句话上了。(笑)好了。贝基,这问题是你递上来的?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Never bothers me when I don't have anything to add, but he seems stuck on that. (Laughs) Anyway. Becky, did that come from you?
贝基·奎克是我。
BECKY QUICKIt did.
沃伦·巴菲特好,行。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, OK.
懂一门以上学科有好处
It helps to know more than one discipline
沃伦·巴菲特5 号台。
WARREN BUFFETTThen station five.
宋遥哦,谢谢,沃伦和查理。我叫宋遥,来自中国,现在在芝加哥大学读书。我特别崇拜你们两位,尤其是查理。我从小就把你当偶像。我的问题也是问查理的:在做投资决策和日常生活中,怎么把多学科框架用起来?怎么让它变得更实用。谢谢。
SONG YAOOh, thank you, Warren and Charlie. My name is Song Yao. I'm from China, and now studying in the University of Chicago. I really admire you two, especially Charlie. You are my idol since I was a child. And my question is also for Charlie. My question is how to practice the multi-disciplinary framework in making investment decisions and in life? Like, how to make it more practical. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特查理?(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTCharlie? (Applause)
查理·芒格嗯,懂一门以上学科当然对你有帮助。有句老话说,手里只有锤子的人,看什么都是钉子。如果你对各门学科没有一定的掌握,确实可能做出错误决策。我讲的也就是这个意思。不过,当你踏进别人的地盘,开口就说“我是多学科的,你是专家,但我比你更懂”,这会让人极其恼火。他们会因此恨你。这一点我可以作证,我干过好几次。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, obviously, it helps you to know more than one discipline. There's an old saying, you know, that a man who carries only a hammer thinks everything else is a nail. And you may go on wrong decisions if you don't have some command of all the disciplines. That's all I ever said. But you do irritate people terribly when you come into their territory, you say, "I'm multi-disciplinary. You're the expert, and I know better than you." They hate you for it. I can attest to it. I've done it several times. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特还有,你知道,中国——在某种程度上,他们的文化是敬重年长者的。所以,查理在这点上比我占便宜。(笑)在中国这方面我压根不想跟他比。年龄我追不上他。不过,我会试试看的。好了,接下去是贝基。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd, you know, China — well, to a certain degree, and they have a culture that, to some extent, reveres age. So, Charlie's got me beat. (Laughs) I don't even try and compete with him on China. I can't catch him on age. OK. I'm going to try to, though. Let's see. We've got Becky coming next.
通胀“几乎骗了所有人”
Inflation "swindles almost everybody"
贝基·奎克这个问题来自菲利普·金。他写道:“20 世纪 70 年代,你写了一篇文章题为《通胀如何欺骗股票投资者》。你说股票无法跟上通胀,因为公司无法提高净资产收益率。你现在还这么认为吗?是的。当然,债券也会欺骗股票投资者。(笑)我是说,通胀也欺骗了债券投资者。它还欺骗了把钱藏在床垫下的人。它几乎骗了所有人。问题是,如果你的生意不需要任何资本,假设美元贬值 90% 或更多,东西贵了十倍。不需要资本的话,你可以收十倍的钱,并保持相对地位。但大多数生意需要资本。如果我们的公用事业——就说几年后美元价值只剩十分之一——我们基本上必须投入十倍于现在的资本。我们靠那笔资本获得回报,但为了原地踏步,我们被迫进行资本投入。我写过一篇相关的文章,我告诉你一个著名的故事,你们都会同情。那篇文章我是为《财富》杂志写的,写完时大约 7000 字。《财富》杂志不喜欢发表 7000 字的文章,他们让我朋友卡罗尔·卢米斯给我解释,知道我对她比其他人更听得进去。但我又固执又大男子主义,说,你知道吗,‘每个字都很宝贵’,他们要么发,要么不发。于是他们派了一个编辑,一个很好的人,飞到奥马哈。他跟我说,用这么多字不合适。我说,‘好吧,那也行,但如果你们不发,我就发到别处。’我那时行为特别讨厌。后来这事儿让我有点过意不去,我就寄给我朋友梅格·格林菲尔德。梅格是《华盛顿邮报》一位非常非常棒的编辑,我们是非常非常好的朋友。了不起的女人。梅格对大多数作家都很严厉,但对我挺客气。她不太想伤我太深。我说,‘梅格,你怎么看?’她说,‘沃伦啊,你没必要在这篇文章里把你知道的一切都讲出来。’(笑声)她说到了点子上。所以我把那篇文章写短了,说的还是差不多同样的意思,你知道吧。你最好——如果未来 100 年真能有一个完全稳定的货币单位,那对生意和投资者总体上会更有利。查理?不?我们转到六号站。通胀——问题是程度多大,以及你能不能决定 2% 并保持住——答案是没人知道。我是说,你不知道,没人知道。你可以听各种说法,但没人知道未来十年、二十年、五十年或下个月的通胀会是多少。人们一直都在谈论它,因为你很想知道自己问题的答案。他们不知道答案,但如果你给够钱,会有很多人告诉你他们知道答案。还有人免费告诉你,因为他们觉得这能提升声望,让他们更有价值之类的。但答案是他们不知道。我们也不知道。不过,对抗通胀的最佳保护仍然是你自己的个人赚钱能力。如果你小提琴拉得非常好,通胀期间你过得会相当不错。我的意思是,你拉得比别人好,人们会为此付钱。诸如此类。所以你的技能不会被夺走,但你的钱可能会。好了,六号站。哦,等一下,那是——下一个是贝基吗?贝基?
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Phillip King. He writes, "In the '70s you wrote an article entitled, 'How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor.' You said that stocks cannot keep pace with inflation, because companies cannot increase their return on equity. Do you believe that this is still the case? Yeah. And of course bonds can swindle the equity investor too. (Laughs) Inflation, I should say, swindles the bond investor too. And it swindles the person who keeps their cash under their mattress. It swindles almost everybody. And the problem, if you have a business that doesn't take any capital, and let's just say the dollar depreciates 90% or something, so things cost ten times as much. If it doesn't take any capital you can charge ten times as much, and you've kept your relative position. But most businesses take some capital. If our utility business — just to say that the dollar is worth 1/10th some years hence from now, we have to have ten times the capital investment, basically. And we get paid a return on that, but we have forced capital investment to essentially keep in the same place. And I wrote an article that related to that, and I will tell you one famous story, which you will all sympathize with. In that I wrote that story for Fortune, and when I finished it, it was about 7,000 words. And Fortune didn't like publishing 7,000 words, and they had my friend Carol Loomis explain that to me, knowing that I would pay more attention to her than anybody else. But being stubborn and male, I said, you know, "Every word is precious," and they can either run it or not. So then they sent an editor, a very nice guy, out to Omaha. And this guy explained to me that just wasn't right to use that many words. And I said, "Well, that's fine, but if you don't do it, I'll write it someplace else." Very disgusting behavior on my part. And then it was beginning to bother me a little, so I sent it to my friend Meg Greenfield. And Meg was a great, great, great editor at The Washington Post, and we were very, very good friends. Wonderful woman. And Meg, who was tough as nails with most writers, but she was kind of nice. She didn't want to really hurt me too much. So I said, "Well, Meg, what do you think?" And she said, "Well, Warren," she says, "You don't have to tell everything you know in this article. (Laughter) And it made the point. And so I write that article shorter, and I say more or less the same thing. You know? And you're better off — if you really could have a totally stable unit of monetary use for the next 100 years, it would be better for business and investors in general. Charlie? No? We will go to station six. Inflation — the question is how much. And the question is whether you can decide that 2% and keep it — the answer is nobody knows. You know? I mean you do not know, and nobody knows. You can listen to all kinds of stuff, but nobody knows how much inflation there will be over the next ten years or 20 years or 50 years or next month. And people talk about it all the time, because you're interested in knowing the answer to your question. And they don't know the answer, but there are a lot of people that will tell you they know the answer if you pay them enough. And other people that will tell you for nothing, because they think it enhances their prestige and makes them more valuable and all that. But the answer is they don't know. And we don't know either. The best protection against inflation, though, still is your own personal earning bar. If you play the violin very well, you will do reasonably well during inflation. I mean play it better than other people, people will pay you for doing that. All kinds of things. So your skills will not be taken away, and your money may be. OK, station six. Oh, wait a second. Was that —? Is it Becky next? Becky?
贝基·奎克没错。是六号站。
BECKY QUICKThat's right. It's station six.
公司里“撒谎文化”是如何滋生的
How a "culture of lying" can develop at a company
沃伦·巴菲特是的。六号站。好的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Station six. OK.
马丁·韦根我叫马丁·韦根,住在田纳西州纳什维尔。巴菲特先生、芒格先生,感谢你们一生的教诲,也感谢今年再次在奥马哈款待我们。(掌声)
MARTIN WEGANDMy name is Martin Wegand. I live in Nashville, Tennessee. Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, thank you for your lifetime of teachings and for hosting us back in Omaha this year. (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, thank you.
马丁·韦根你们曾提到,公司会得到它们应得的股东。在今年致股东的信里,你提到你最大的满足之一,是为长期个人股东工作。随着机构指数基金的影响力日益增大,管理层如何能培养出像伯克希尔这样的股东文化?谢谢。
MARTIN WEGANDYou have mentioned that companies get the shareholders they deserve. And in this year's letter, you mentioned a great satisfaction of yours is working for the individual long-term shareholders. With the growing influence of institutional index funds, how can management teams foster a shareholder culture like the one we have at Berkshire? Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,幸运的是,我们有这样的股东结构,而且我们更懂得如何维持它,而不是去建立一套新的。这很有意思。我们现在有 147 万股 A 类股流通在外。比一年前少了。这些座位都是满的。我的意思是,你们就是在座的股东。我们喜欢现有的这群人。那么,凭什么,当我们有固定数量的座位时,我们还要出去招募别人来取代你们呢?你们明白吗?我是说,我们能够拥有的最理想的股东群体,就是今天在场的这一群。而且,你们知道,如果我们有一座教堂,我们会希望人们一周又一周地来。如果我们座位有限,又有一群出色的教友,我们是不会出去再招 50 或 100 个人进来,然后把现有的 50 或 100 个人赶出去的。我们就有这样的股东。而我几乎知道的所有公司,你知道,都在招揽新股东进来。不管他们招来的这批人是不是比原来的更好,我觉得这基本上就是疯了。我们不想要任何跟现在不同的人(笑声)。而且,你知道,我们也不会把指数基金赶走,所以我们只能赶走像你这样的人,但我们不想赶走像你这样的人。(笑)我就是不明白,如果你有一个社区,土地面积之类的东西决定了你只能有十个邻居,而且他们都是好邻居,那你凭什么要去跟街上走来走去的一大帮人说,“你为什么不买我旁边那个家伙的房子?”(笑)这很奇怪,但有很多人就是靠这个谋生的,而且他们从来不好好反思一下。我倒是想问任何一家每个月都搞分析师说明会的公司,“你们现在正在试图赶走现有的哪一位股东?”你知道,基本上,因为我希望你们年末的流通股数不比现在多。难道我应该让开道,让某个正思考你们股票下周会怎么走的基金来取代我吗?(笑)这是一种非常、非常、非常奇怪的局面。当然,真正疯狂的是,现在发展出的这套流程,就是人们跟——我们叫它分析师群体,金融界的大祭司们——对话,有些公司一个月搞不止一次。那么,想像一下,如果你为那家公司工作,你去那家公司上班,每个月人们都在反复念叨他们公司的事,“我们每个客户的服务数量达到 6.2 很重要,我们必须得做到 7,”或者类似的话。他们一个月接一个月地这么说,这就成了一种教条。CEO 或者他或她的代表这么说,那你下个月怎么改口说,“顺便提一下,我们之前真的错了,这才应该是我们努力的方向。”你没法说出口的。前任 CEO 说最重要的事就是达到盈利目标,那新 CEO 接任后就会面临一个可怕的难题。你知道,他很可能为了达标,时不时地搞点作弊。然后这个前任把接力棒交给你,你会跳出来说,“嗯,我们其实一直在搞点小作弊,不做盈利预测,只把实际结果给你们,而不是编造一些东西,这对公司的发展其实是适得其反的。而且会计部门,你知道,他们做不到。这不是人的天性,再说了,这么干你也当不了接班人。”你就是没法进去说,“我们一直在延续这些神话,说我们总能保持 8% 的增长,或者说我们能干这个、能干那个,或者说最重要的事是这个。”如果你每个月都在向人们宣讲这就是我们的立场,然后还要回答下一个问题,把这个信息传递给大众、分析师和所有人,那你就不可能进去改变它。这是一套彻底具有破坏性的政策。我的意思是,你知道,在公认会计准则的范围内,我可以玩很多数字游戏。我们在伯克希尔干过很多蠢事。但我们从未告诉任何人,数字必须是多少,或者要去改动什么。我的意思是,你一旦开了头,就全完了。你停不下来的。就像从收银机里拿 5 美元。你知道,第一次你拿出那 5 美元,你会说,“我会还回去的。”然后多干几次,你就再也停不下来了。事实上,干一次,你可能就再也停不下来了。但如果某件事具有破坏性,那最好的办法就是不要开始它。而预测盈利,我想不出还有比这更具破坏性的事了。我们外面有 36 万人,他们当中有很多人知道我是不是在撒谎。他们知道自己报上来的数字是什么,然后被改了?你知道,这传递的是什么信息?在伯克希尔内部,我们就有个生动的例子。而且,你知道,如果你开始撒谎,你就会有大麻烦。就这么简单。如果你对你的团队说,你的工作——你负责股东关系,你的工作就是走出去,告诉所有人,我们的股票是成千上万个选择里每天最值得买的那一个。嗯,那太疯狂了。那你要告诉他们什么呢?嗯,他们会试图看看风向,琢磨一下必须跟别人说什么。然后他们就出去说,如果你是人,你说了“我们每股会赚 3.59 美元”,那你就能做到 3.59 美元。而且能维持相当一段时间。你知道,你可以拥有一整套流程,但如果你有撒谎的文化,那流程真的就——它们就消失了。查理和我见过这种情况,可能我们每次进入一家公司董事会都会见到。查理,你来给他们讲讲?(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTWell, fortunately we have it, and we know more about how to keep it than to institute one. And it's very interesting. We have a 1,470,000 class A shares outstanding today. Fewer than we had a year ago. And those seats are filled. I mean you are the shareholders in place. We like the group we have. So why in the world, when we got a fixed number of seats, should we go out and recruit other people to replace you? You know? I mean the ideal shareholder group we can have is the group we have today. And, you know, if we had a church, we'd want the people to keep coming back week after week after week. If we had a limited number of seats, and we had some wonderful parishioners, we would not go out and recruit another 50 or 100 of them and have to throw out 50 or 100 of the ones we already had. We've got. And every company I know, virtually, you know, is wooing new people to come in. And whether they're improving the group they get or not, I mean it strikes us as basically crazy. We don't want anybody different (Laughter) than we have now. And, you know, we're not going to get rid of the index fund, so we have to get rid of people like you, and we don't want to get rid of people like you. (Laughs) And I just don't understand why if you had a neighborhood, and the size of the terrain or whatever it was would be such that you could have ten neighbors, and they were all great neighbors, why in the world would you go out and say to a whole bunch of people going up and down the street, you know, "Why don't you buy the house of the guy next to me?" You know, (Laughs) it is weird, but there's an awful lot of people that make their living by doing that, and they never really question. I would sort of ask any company that's making analyst presentations every month or something, "Which of the present ones are you trying to get rid of?" You know, basically, because I hope you're not going to have more shares outstanding at the end of the year than you have now. And am I supposed to, you know, get out of the way so (Laughs) some other fund that is thinking about what your stock is going to do next week replaces me? It is a very, very, very weird situation. And of course, the really crazy process that has developed is people talking to, we'll say, analyst group, you know, sort of the high priests of finance, you know, some companies are doing it more than once a month. Well, just imagine if you work for that company, you go to work for that company, and every month people are repeating these things about their company that, "It's important that we have more services per customer at 6.2 and we got to get to seven," or something like that. And they'd say that month after month after month, so it becomes a catechism. And CEO says it or his or her representative says it, and how do you go on the next month and say, "By the way, we were really wrong, and this is what we should be working on." You don't say that. And it's a terrible problem the new CEO has coming in after a previous CEO has said the important thing to do is to hit your earnings targets. Well, you know, he's been meeting them, in all probability, by cheating from some time to time. And this guy hands you the baton, and are you going to come out and say, "Well, we've really been cheating a little and it's really counterproductive to the development of the, you know, companies, not to make earnings projections and just to give you the results as they come, rather than making up a few things. And the accounting department, you know, they can't do it. It's not human nature, and besides, you wouldn't get appointed the successor. But you just don't go in and say, "We've been perpetuating these myths that we can always deliver 8% growth or we can do this or do that, or the most important thing is this." You can't go in and change that if every month you've been preaching to people that this is what we stand for, and just ask another question and carry this message out to the masses, to the analysts and all that. And it's a totally destructive policy. I mean, you know, I can, within gap accounting, I can play a lot of games with numbers. We've done a lot-ta dumb things at Berkshire. We have never told anybody that the number had to be this or that or to change anything. I mean once you start it, it's all over. You can't quit. It's like taking $5 out of the cash register. You know, the first time you take the five bucks out, you'll say, "Well, I'm going to put it back." And then do it a few times, and you'll never stop. In fact, do it once and you probably never stop. But if something is going to be destructive, the thing to do is not start it. And forecasting earnings, I can't imagine anything more destructive. I've got 360,000 people out there, and they know whether I'm lying or not. Many of them. And they know what they send in figures, and they get changed? You know, what message are you telling? We've got one dramatic illustration of that within Berkshire. And it's just, you know, if you start lying you've got a big problem. It's that simple. And if you start saying to your team that somehow you've got a job — you've got shareholder relations, your job is to go out and tell everybody that our stock is the best thing among thousands of choices to buy, every day. Well, that's crazy. So what do you tell them? Well, they try to, you know, see which way the wind is blowing and figure out what they have to tell people. And that they go out and tell them, and then if you're human, and you've said, "We're going to earn $3.59 a share," you can get to $3.59. And get there quite a while. And, you know, you can have all these processes, but if you have a culture of lying, the processes really don't — they just disappear. And Charlie and I have seen it, well, probably every time we've gone on a board. Charlie, tell them about it? (Laughs)
查理·芒格嗯,我认为伯克希尔的文化在我们离开后会持续很久。我认为它应该如此,而且我认为它会相当繁荣。美国企业界的其他部分则大不相同,而且我觉得,每过十年,差别就越来越大。这正变得非常奇特。很快他们就要把股东会都移到线上,股东们甚至都不来参加了。这正变得非常古怪。指数基金在投票权上变得越来越重要。这就像生活中的其他事情一样。它会变,而且不一定总是朝着你喜欢的那个方向变。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think Berkshire's culture's going to last a long time after we're gone. And I think it should, and I think it'll prosper pretty well. The rest of corporate America is quite different, and it gets more different, I think, with each passing decade. And it's getting very peculiar. Pretty soon they're going to hold all the shareholders' meetings online, and the shareholders won't even come. And it's just it's getting very peculiar. And the index fund's getting more and more important than the voting. And it's like everything else in life. It changes, and not always in ways you like.
沃伦·巴菲特而且最终会影响到选择不同的 CEO 以及各种事情。我是说,你不会任命一个继任的 CEO,让他进来就说过去做的一切都是某种欺诈。对吧?我是说,如果我们需要在季度结束后再记上一笔额外的销售,或者如果我们需要调整准备金,一旦开始撒谎,就全完了。我实在不知道有什么办法能绕过这个,除了想尽一切办法不这么做——如果你在顶层树立了错误的榜样,你就真有大麻烦了。对吧?我们从来没让任何人改过数字。永远也不会。如果他们一直在改数字,那我们就会陷入各种各样的麻烦,因为他们知道,我知道,下一个人也会知道。这就会不断恶化。我们确实一次又一次地看到过。董事会运作的方式,必须是流程导向的。我明白特拉华州在制定法律时遇到的问题,法官在面对这些事时不得不考虑的,但一个组织如果过分强调流程,它能造成的后果是惊人的,因为他们觉得只要是被允许的,什么事都能干。然后,基础最终就会崩塌。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd it ends up for selecting different CEOs and all kinds of things. I mean, you're not going to appoint a successor CEO that's going to come in and say everything that's been done before, you know, has been kind of fraudulent. You know? I mean if we needed to book an extra sale after the end of the quarter, if we needed to adjust the reserves, once you start lying, it's all over. And I just don't know any way around that, except to try every way you can to not — if you set the wrong example at the top, you've got a real problem. You know? And we've never told anybody to change a figure. And we never will. And if they had been changing figures, you know, we'd be in all kinds of trouble, because they know it and I'd know it and the next person would know it. And it just deteriorates. And we've really seen it time after time. The way boards operate, you know, it has to be process-oriented. I mean I understand the problems that Delaware has in writing a statute that judges face when they look at things, but it's just extraordinary what an emphasis on process can do to an organization, because they think they can do anything if it's allowed. And, you know, eventually the foundation crumbles.
巴菲特购买动视暴雪,作为并购套利操作
Buffet is buying Activision as merger arbitrage play
沃伦·巴菲特好。哦,我应该在这儿制造点新闻,你们都来了,你们可能看到也可能看不到,但非常有可能——我们买入的一项东西,我买入的一项东西,几个月前被另一位经理出于不同目的买入了。他们买了大约 1500 万股动视暴雪的股票。我知道这家公司,我每个月看报告时都会看到。但到了 1 月,大概是 17 号或 18 号左右,微软宣布要以每股 95 美元收购动视暴雪。他们宣布时,动视暴雪就变成了一种不同的证券。它变成了查理和我过去常说的——好吧,50 年前大家都那么说。我们管它叫“工作单”之类的。后来它们被称为套利。好吧,其实不完全是套利,但它们是你手里的证券——在这种情况下是普通股——其价值不取决于市场价格怎么走,而是取决于某个特定公司事件会不会发生。一个已宣布的公司事件。微软想买动视暴雪,我们这么说吧——好吧,他们说了每股 95 美元。而且他们有钱,显然并购,大并购,科技公司,各种情况,都会在全球舆论方面遇到各种问题。所以你不知道司法部会怎么做,你也不知道欧盟会怎么做,各种事情。但在那个点上,它就变成了一种不同的证券。查理和我,50 年前,我们做过很多这种事。格斯·列维在高盛也做。我记得有一次我们好像还做过不列颠哥伦比亚电力公司的案子,对吧,查理?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Oh, I should make a little news here, so you've all come and you may or may not see this, but it's very possible — one of the things we bought, one of the things I bought, was bought for a different purpose by a different manager months earlier. They bought roughly 15 million shares of Activision. And I knew about the company, I would just see it at the monthly report. But then on January, I don't know, 17th or 18th, something like that, Microsoft announced they were going to buy Activision for $95 a share. Now, when they announced that, at that point Activision becomes a different kind of security. It becomes what Charlie and I used to call — well, and everybody did 50 years ago. We'd call them workouts or something like that. And they become known as arbitrage. Well, they're not really arbitrage, but they're securities that are, in this case a common stock, whose value depends not on what the market price does, but whether a given corporate event occurs. An announced corporate event occurs. Well, Microsoft wants to buy Activision, we'll say — well, they said at $95 a share. And they've got the money, and obviously mergers, and big mergers, tech companies, all kinds of things, have got all kinds of problems with the world generally in terms of opinion. So you don't know what the Justice Department will do or you don't know what the EU will do and all kinds of things. But at that point it becomes a different security. And Charlie and I, 50 years ago, we used to do a lot of that sort of thing. And Gus Levy did it at Goldman Sachs. And we even went back one time I think on British Columbia power, didn't we, Charlie?
查理·芒格对。确实做过。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. We certainly did.
沃伦·巴菲特对。(笑)一个叫贝内特的家伙在那里,我们当时想弄明白怎么拿下那个电力公司。我的意思是,我们花了大量时间分析已宣布交易的通过概率,我们管它们叫“工作单”。现在,这个词变成了“套利”。近年来整体来说效果不太好。现在,偶尔我会看到在这个领域想做的事。但很少,因为它们必须足够大。利润有限。你知道,如果他们说你每股能拿到 95 美元,你拿不到 96 美元,如果交易告吹,你可能手里的股票只有 40 美元或什么的。但五六年我们前在拜耳收购孟山都时做过一次,我们非常走运,因为对拜耳来说那是一次糟糕透顶的收购,但交易确实通过了,因为拜耳有钱,他们最终还是完成了交易,尽管孟山都带来一个问题,没人真正理解它的严重程度。我们在 IBM 收购 Red Hat 时也做过一次。总之,不管在 1 月多少号,17 号、18 号、19 号,微软宣布了消息。而当时股价是 60 美元——等等。我可能有个幻灯片在这里,我找找。但不管怎样,股价之前是 60 多美元,涨到了 81 或 82 美元。对我来说,这个价差几天内不够大。然后它又回落了一点。总之,我们现在持有动视暴雪 9.5% 的股份,大概是 9.5%。如果我们超过 10%,我们就会提交报告。所以为了让新闻界不觉得这儿没新闻,我可以告诉你们,截至昨天,我们持有大约 9.5%。如果我们超过 10%,就会向 SEC 提交一份表格,等等。但这是我买的,不是几个月前那位经理买的。(打响指)如果交易通过,我们赚点钱;如果交易不通过,谁知道会发生什么。但我只是想确保,如果我们确实提交那份报告,人们能非常清楚,因为过去有些关于这件事的报道非常混乱。我们想非常清楚地说,在这个具体案例里,是沃伦·巴菲特做的决定,他不知道司法部会怎么做。(笑)他不知道欧盟会怎么做。他从没和微软的任何人谈过这件事。我觉得他只是读了一份文件。他自己做了评估。而且情况可以改变。有一次,我觉得股价比它应该的价格高了一点,就卖了一些。结果那笔卖出不算差。所以我只是想给你们制造点新闻。如果可以的话,我还想提前阻止那些过去不准确、然后被其他媒体转载、却从未得到更正的报道。所有更正都源于一篇不准确的文章。他们甚至向我道了歉。写报道的记者和编辑都给我发了一封私人道歉信。他们不是故意犯错。但其他出版物转载时,没费力去转载更正。于是数百万人被误导了,可能——随着它传播开来。这次我打算直接告诉你们确切的事实(笑)来提前制止。我们再看会不会超过 10%。但是,你知道,很容易发生这种情况:如果股价涨了几美元——依然是每股 95 美元的交易。我们仍然不知道司法部会怎么做。我们不知道欧盟会怎么做。我们不知道其他 30 个司法管辖区会怎么做。我们只知道一件事:微软有钱。所以排除了那个风险。总之,查理,你有什么新闻要发布吗?(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Laughs) A guy named Bennett was up there, and we were trying to figure out some takeover of the power business. I mean we spent a lot of time analyzing the probabilities of announced deals going through, and we called them workouts. Now, the term became arb. And it hasn't worked overall too well in recent years. Now, every now and then I see something that I want do to in that field. But very seldom, because they've got to be big. The profit is limited. You know, if they say you're going to get $95, you're not going to get $96, and if the deal blows up, you may have a stock that's at $40 or something. But we did it with Monsanto five or six years ago when Bayer was buying it, and we got very lucky, because it turned out to be a terrible acquisition for Bayer, but it did go through, because Bayer had the money and they went through with the deal, even though Monsanto came with a problem that nobody really understands the extent of. And we did it with Red Hat when IBM bought it. So in any event, on January whatever it was, 17th, 18th, 19th, Microsoft announces it. And the stock, which had been at $60 — let's see. I may have a slide here, which I'll find. But in any event, the stock, which had been in the 60s, went up to $81 or $82. And that looked like not a big enough spread to me for a few days. And then it settled back a little. So anyway, we now own 9.5%, something like 9.5% of Activision. And if we went over 10% we would file a report. So in order that the news people don't feel that there's no news here, I can tell you that as of yesterday, we own about 9.5%. If we go past 10%, there'll be a form filed with the SEC and so on. But it is my purchases, not the manager who bought it some months ago. (SNAPPING) And if the deal goes through we make some money, and if the deal doesn't go through, who knows what happens. But I just want to be sure that if we do file that report, people understand very clearly, because there's been some very mixed up stories on that in the past. We want to be very clear that it was Warren Buffett's decision in that particular case, and he doesn't know what the Justice Department's going to do. (Laughs) He doesn't know what the EU's going to do. He's never talked to anybody at Microsoft about it. I think he's just read a document. He's made his own assessment. And it can change. And at one time I think we sold a few shares even when I thought it was a little higher than it should be. It turned out those sales were not a bad sale. And so I just want to create a little news for you. And I want to, if possible, head off stories which have been incorrect in the past, and which get then picked up by other media and corrections never get written. That all the corrections were written by one inaccurate story. And they apologized even to me. Both are reporter and the editor sent me a personal note of apology. And they didn't expect to make a mistake. But when the other publications picked up the story, they didn't bother to pick up the correction. And millions of people were misinformed, and probably — literally by the time it gets spread around. And this one I will attempt to head off by telling you exactly what the facts are (Laughs) right now. And we'll see whether we go beyond 10%. But, you know, it could easily be that if it went up a few dollars — it's still a $95 deal. It's still we don't know what the Justice Department will do. We don't know what the EU will do. We don't know what 30 other jurisdictions will do. One thing we do know is Microsoft has the money. So that takes that one risk out of it. So anyway, Charlie, do you have any news to break? (Laughs)
查理·芒格没有。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯。(笑声)顺便提一句,这件事我并没有跟查理商量。我是说,他知道我偶尔会看到一个套利机会就去做。你知道,50 年前我们是一起做的,他大概的感觉是:“沃伦干嘛还在这种事儿上瞎折腾。”但在老战马眼里,偶尔看起来就是胜率对我们有利。不过,我们绝对可能在这家公司上赔钱,而且,你知道,有可能是相当大的金额,这取决于一旦交易告吹会怎样。会有很多人希望交易告吹。但微软不希望它告吹,所以我们只能等着看结果了。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Laughter) And incidentally, I don't talk this over with Charlie. I mean, you know, he knows that occasionally I'll see an arbitrage deal and do it. And, you know, 50 years ago we were doing it together, and his general feeling is, "Why is Warren fooling around with this kind of stuff, even." But it's the old fire horse that occasionally it looks like the odds are in our favor. But absolutely we can lose money on that company, and, you know, fairly large sums of money, depending on what happened if the deal blows up. And there will be a lot of people that want the deal to blow up. But Microsoft doesn't want it to blow up, so we'll just have to see what happens.
指数基金可能正在获得过多的公司治理影响力
Index funds may be getting too much influence over corporate governance
沃伦·巴菲特好。贝基?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Becky?
贝基·奎克查理刚才顺带提到了指数基金,那我们直接看马特·菲格尔的这个问题。他的问题与被动投资通过指数基金和 ETF 的增长有关。他提到:“被动投资工具目前已控制美国股市超过 50% 的份额。”
BECKY QUICKYou know, Charlie just mentioned index funds in passing, so let's go to this question from Matt Figel. His question is related to the growth of passive investing through index funds and ETFs. He says, "Passive investment vehicles now control upwards of 50% of the United States stock market."
贝基·奎克“这些被动投资工具的实际所有者认定,被动投资对他们来说是最明智的选择,然而这样做,被动投资者却赋予了大型指数基金成为市场上最大积极干预者的权力。这些被动管理公司如今在公司治理上拥有巨大的——而且我认为是不当的——影响力。沃伦或查理是否看到,制定规则禁止被动投资工具的管理人对其被动投资客户所持有的股票行使投票权,会有什么好处或是有其道理?”
BECKY QUICK"The actual owners of these passive investment vehicles decided passive investing makes the most sense for them, yet, in doing so, passive investors have empowered the large index funds to become the biggest activists in the market. These passive managers now enjoy enormous, and, I would argue undue influence over corporate governance. Do Warren or Charlie see any benefit or logic to a rule that would prohibit passive investment vehicle managers from voting the shares they control for their passive investment clients?"
查理·芒格好吧,这个我来回答。我觉得那个提问者说得对。我认为这件事已经失控,而且起了反作用。我不觉得让三家被动投资者,让一群哈佛之类地方出来的聪明年轻人,来指教大家什么是正确的公司治理,会对这个国家有好处。这不是什么好趋势。(掌声)而且我认为,指数化如果占到 90%,那它就完全运转不好了。但在当下,它运转得还不错。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I'll take that. I think the guy's right. I think the thing is out of control and counterproductive. And I don't think it's good for the country to have three passive investors, bright young men from Harvard or what all, telling them what proper governance of corporations is. It's not a good development. (Applause) And I think indexing, if it gets to 90%, then it won't work very well at all. But at the moment, it's worked fine.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。还有一点你也可以放心:如果公众舆论真的转向,认为让三个人决定美国所有公司的命运是个好主意,那这三个人——他们并不会互相串通或怎样。他们一点都不是坏人。我的意思是,他们只是在做你我都会做的事。他们会认为自己其实没那么在意投票。我们真正在意的是(笑)保住庞大的管理资产规模。所以到头来,我们会想出某种办法来反映公众舆论,这样政客们就不会生我们的气。我们唯一的威胁,真的,就是政客们生我们的气,以及在某些方面的监管机构。所以我们会提前规避这个风险。我相当有信心地预测,如果美国公众不喜欢由三个人控制一切的主意,那这三个人——连同他们的组织和一切——但这三个人,他们想做的就是继续壮大。(笑)如果他们不曾希望壮大,就不会有今天的地位。这种事不是偶然发生的。这并不意味着那是他们唯一想要的。他们也希望投资者获得良好回报等等。但他们肯定不会去奉行某种会导致强烈抵制、从而让自己规模大幅缩水的政策。他们看得清自己的利益。而在这个例子里,恰好,这样做会达成正确的结果,也就是他们不会去控制美国,但会做对他们自己有利的事。他们必须做的是政治上可以接受的事。对他们来说,唯一能把这一非常有利的局面搞砸的,就是国会修改规则。要知道,规则的事——《1940 年投资公司法》切切实实地改变了人们的行为,并在很长一段时间里从大框架上管住了很多事。和联邦政府对着干的人,谁赢过?你明白吗?如果你说的是想去干那种事——而且他们也没必要去干。他们只需要说:“好吧,我们放弃投票权,或者我们就跟着其他人的投票结果来投我们的票。”当然,如果你跟着其他人的投票结果来投,那么一旦指数基金占了全国 90% 的份额,别人只要买入 3% 或 4% 就能接管一家公司,因为你会自动让这些基金跟随你那很不起眼的小比例。这一切会如何演变,你会看到的。我的意思是,这是一个重大案例,但并非不同寻常。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, the one thing you can count on too is that if it does look like it's going to — if the public opinion shifts over to the idea that it really is a good idea to let three people decide the fate of every company in corporate America, the three people — and they won't collaborate or do anything. It's not that they're evil people the least. I mean, they're just doing what you and I would do. They would figure they don't care that much about voting. What we do care about is keeping (Laughs) a lot of assets under management. But so we'll figure out something that ends up reflecting public opinion, and then politicians won't get mad at us. And our only threat, really, is the politicians get mad at us, and regulators in some ways. So we'll head it off. And I would predict fairly confidently that if American public doesn't like the idea of three people controlling things, the three people — and their organizations and everything, but the three, what they want to do is they want to get bigger. (Laughs) And they wouldn't be where they are in life if they hadn't wanted to get bigger. Those things don't happen by accident. That doesn't mean that it's the only thing they want. They want their investors to get good results and everything. But they are certainly not going to follow a policy which is going to cause a backlash that causes them to be a lot smaller there. They can figure out their self-interest. And it just so happens that in this case, it would achieve the right result, which is that they would not control America, but they'll do what's good for themselves. And what they have to do, what's politically acceptable. The only thing that really can mess up what is a very good deal for them is to have Congress change the rules. And, you know, the rules were — the Investment Company Act of 1940 really changed how people behaved, and it's governed things in a big way for a very long time. And anybody that takes on the federal government loses. You know? And if you're talking about trying to do that sort of thing — and they don't need to do it. They just say, "Well, we'll give up voting, or we'll vote our shares as the rest of the people do." And of course if you vote your shares as the rest of the people do, then if the index fund's at 90% of the country, you could take over a company by somebody else buying 3% or 4%, because you just automatically get the funds to follow your very small little percentage. You'll see it all play out. I mean it's a big case, but it's not an unusual case.
伯克希尔与其能源子公司的关系
Berkshire's relationship with its energy subsidiary
沃伦·巴菲特好。七号站。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station seven.
埃里克·埃塔是的。我是埃里克·埃塔,住在新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基。首先,我想由衷感谢你们两位,在你们一生中如此慷慨地与我们大家分享知识。你们为人类进步做出了巨大贡献。不仅如此,你们还教会在场的我们,以及成千上万不在场的人,如何更理性行事,用更多的爱彼此相待,过上更充实的人生。对此,我想表达最诚挚的谢意。(掌声)
ERIC ERTAYeah. Eric Erta, and I live in Albuquerque, New Mexico. So I want to first say thank you so much for a lifetime of knowledge you've both graciously shared with all of us. You've contributed greatly to push our species forward. Moreover, you've taught all of us here, along with many, many millions not here, how to behave more rationally, treat one another with more love, and lead more fulfilling lives. And for that, I want to say a very sincere thank you. (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you.
查理·芒格嗯哼(表示肯定)。
CHARLIE MUNGERUh-huh (AFFIRM).
埃里克·埃塔回到我的问题,我想问的是伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源,以及那里逐步形成的独特结构,因为伯克希尔并没有 100% 持有这家公司。问题的第一部分,与格雷格的持股及其与伯克希尔整体利益之间的激励一致性有关。
ERIC ERTAAs for my question, I want to ask about Berkshire Hathaway energy, and the unique structure that has evolved there, given that Berkshire doesn't own 100% of the company. The first part of that question is related to Greg's ownership and his corresponding incentive alignment with overall Berkshire.
埃里克·埃塔有一位名叫查理的智者,在 1995 年哈佛大学的一次演讲中教导我们,激励对人类行为有多重要。我保守估计,格雷格在 BHE 的股份目前价值超过 5 亿美元。我很好奇,你们能否透露是否有任何计划,把他持有的伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源股权转换为伯克希尔股票?如果眼下没有这样的计划,能否请你们解释一下,我们为何不必对格雷格未来的激励结构感到担忧?
ERIC ERTANow, there's a wise man named Charlie that in 1995, at a speech to Harvard, taught us how important incentives are to human behavior. I would conservatively say that Greg's stake in BHE is worth more than $500 million at present. And I'm curious if you can share any plans that you have to convert is Berkshire Hathaway energy ownership to Berkshire stock? And if there isn't a plan to do this, can you please explain why we shouldn't be concerned about Greg's incentive structure going forward?
埃里克·埃塔第二部分是关于这个实体的杠杆。你一直说,鉴于 BHE 的盈利能力,它运营时使用了适当的杠杆。话虽如此,与当前收益相比,这仍然是一个非常非常庞大的债务数字,尤其是与我们习惯的伯克希尔相比。我很好奇,如果伯克希尔完全拥有伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源,你们还会用同样多的杠杆来运营这家企业吗?
ERIC ERTAThe second part is about leverage at the entity. You have always said that BHE operates with an appropriate amount of leverage, given it's earning power. With that said, it's still a very, very large debt figure in relation to current earnings, especially with what we have become accustomed to at Berkshire. And I'm curious if Berkshire owed 100% of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, would you still operate the business with the same amount of leverage?
沃伦·巴菲特好。谢谢。第二部分最容易回答,所以我来回答。然后我把第一部分扔回给查理。(笑声)但伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源实际上在受监管的公用事业方面有要求——它基本是从受监管的公用事业起步的,现在仍然以这些为主。我们有兴趣购买更多受监管的公用事业。不同州和不同监管机构以不同方式要求持有大量债务,因为在爱荷华州或随便选个州,监管机构会说,你借债比融股本来得便宜,历史上这几乎总是对的。他们说,既然我们允许你获得股本回报——我们随便说个数字吧。假设他们允许我们 9% 的股本回报率,而我们能以 3% 借到大量资金,他们说如果你全用股本,会导致客户费率更高。我们倒希望自己的公用事业(笑)全是股本,但监管机构不会接受,因为在传统体系下,这会导致消费者电价更高。所以这是体系的一部分。而我们的监管机构基本上不会允许我们以全股本结构获得同样的股本回报率。答案是,你知道——实际上你在之前的影片里看到了,但听网络直播的人没看到。就在爱荷华州,你知道,我们最近获批花费 30 多亿美元,但他们希望我们——爱荷华州有历史,像联邦其他每个州一样——除内布拉斯加州是全公有电力外。但每一家私营电力公司,你知道,他们都有历史要求一定比例的债务。他们希望你通过借债筹集大笔资金,因为这意味着消费者电价更便宜。所以答案是,如果我们 100% 拥有伯克希尔能源,我们绝对会遵循同样的做法。我们会根据公用事业委员会告诉我们他们希望我们做的事来运营。他们代表那些州的人民。现在查理,你想——
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Thank you. The second part is the easiest one to answer, so I'll take that. Then I'll throw the first one back to Charlie. (Laughter) But Berkshire Hathaway Energy actually is required with it's regulated utilities — and it basically started pretty much with regulated utilities, and still is dominated by that. And we're interested in buying more regulated utilities. It's required in different ways by different states and by different regulatory authorities to have a large amount of debt, because, in Iowa or to pick any state, the regulatory authorities are going to say you can get debt money cheaper than you can get equity money, which historically has largely almost always been true. And they say that since we're going to allow you a return on equity — we'll say, just pick a figure. But let's say they allow us a return on equity of 9%, and we can borrow a lot of capital at 3%, they say it'll result in higher rates to customers if you put in all equity. We would love to have all equity (Laughs) in our utilities, but the regulator wouldn't stand for it, because under the trad system it would result in higher prices to consumers. So that's built into the system. And well, our regulator wouldn't allow us, essentially, to get the same return on equity and have an all equity structure. And the answer is, you know — well, you actually saw in the film earlier, which the people that are hearing the webcast didn't see. But just in Iowa, you know, we recently got approval to spend three and a fraction billion dollars, but they want us — Iowa has a history, and like every other state in the union — except Nebraska, which is all public power. But every private power, you know, they have a history of wanting X percent to be in debt. They want you to raise a lot of money in debt because it means cheaper power for the consumer. So the answer is if we owned 100% of Berkshire Energy, we would absolutely be following the same. We would be operating pursuant to what the utility commissions tell us they want us to do that. They represent the people of those states. Now Charlie, do you want —
查理·芒格嗯,另一个也很简单。这是个历史偶然。它没造成什么大的紧张,也没违反受托责任。我们和沃尔特·斯科特有过同样的问题,他当了多年董事,在同一家公司持有股票,也是历史偶然。我完全不觉得这有什么大问题。我从未看到格雷格有任何行为不符合伯克希尔的利益。是的。我们持有伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源的比例,从 2000 年左右收购以来一直在变。当时我妹妹在场,她就在我们家,当时正在开派对,大概有 20 或 30 人,可能 30 人。沃尔特对我说:“你有空吗?我想跟你说点事。”于是我们进了书房之类的地方,沃尔特说:“你知道,我们这家公司,似乎不太适合上市公司的模式。你愿意买下来,把它私有化吗?”我说:“当然。”你知道?(含糊)价格。等我们回到奥马哈——当时是在西海岸。回到奥马哈后,我们会见了戴维·索科尔,他是除沃尔特之外的最大股东。我们谈好了价格。我记得沃尔特对戴夫说:“别跟沃伦讨价还价。(笑)你知道,他会让你放弃,然后去做别的事。”我们就买了下来。所以从一开始,结构就有点奇怪,我们有一家公用事业公司要应付,各种事情都碰到。它不断演变,现在我们有大约 91% 的股份,还有沃尔特的遗产——我完全不知道那会流向哪里。沃尔特从来没跟我提过,我也没问过。但不管怎样,有些利益和他以及遗产有关,我猜大概 8% 左右。格雷格也持有一点。你知道,从我们的角度看,如果我们跟他们做交易——如果他们来找我们(含糊),只是想做什么,我们会说:“行。”如果格雷格想这么做,我们也会同样对待,他可能也想这么做,我是说。但从我们的角度看,我从未见过任何决策——哪怕我觉得那会改变什么,你知道,那他就不是适合经营伯克希尔的人。当然,问题是,你可能涉及大量流程,牵涉到内部人士等等。只要我活着,你知道,我的利益 100% 属于伯克希尔。董事会,可能有点不情愿,但他们只会说:“嗯,沃伦认为这笔交易行,那肯定行。”这是事实。(笑)所以我可以跟任何人做交易,不会陷入流程的混乱。但另一方面,如果我不在了,你知道,董事们会受到压力,按律师说的做,律师让他们做这做那。然后他们想请投行来做评估。从那一刻起,整件事就变成了一场游戏,而且费用高昂,非常耗时。所以最好在我活着的时候完成,但没有理由——我们显然更愿意持有 100% 而不是 91%,因为这能给伯克希尔带来更多收益。但除非斯科特家族或格雷格想做什么,否则没有理由去尝试做点什么。合乎逻辑的做法是,如果斯科特家族有什么变化,我们当然会向格雷格提出。但谁知道未来会发生什么。有一点我可以保证,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东永远不会被占便宜,你知道,如果有人不这么认为,你可以起诉我的遗产之类的东西(笑)。这不会发生。但说实话,如果在我还在的时候做这件事,比以后做要容易得多。不过——
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, the other one's simple too. It's a historical accident. It's not causing any big tension or breaches of fiduciary duty. We had the same problem with Walter Scott, who was the director for years and years, and owned stock in the same company, also an historical accident. I just don't think it's a big problem at all. I see no behavior from Greg ever that isn't in the best interests of Berkshire. Yeah. And we've had various percentages of Berkshire Hathaway Energy ever since we bought it in around 2000. And it happened, my sister, who's here, we were at our house, and there was a party going on. And 20 or 30, probably 30 people. And Walter said to me, "Have you got a minute or two? I'd like to talk to you about something." So we went in the library or someplace, and Walter says, "You know, we've got this company and it doesn't seem to fit the public mold very well. And would you want to buy it and go private?" And I said, "Sure." You know? (UNINTEL) the price. And when we got back to Omaha — it was out on the West Coast. We got back to Omaha and we met with David Sokol, who was the big holder, beside from Walter. And we agreed on a price. And I remember Walter saying to Dave, "Don't negotiate with Warren. (Laughs) You know, he'll tell you to forget and he'll do something else." And we bought it. So it was kind of a weird structure from the start, and we had a public utility holding up any (UNINTEL) deal with and all kinds of things. And it's evolved, and it now has us with 91% roughly, and it has Walter's estate — and I don't know where that goes at all. And Walter never talked to me about it, and I never asked him about it. But it's, one way or another, interest connected with him, and the estate now. Close to eight, I guess. And Greg's got one. And, you know, from our standpoint, if we made a deal with — if they ever came to us and (UNINTEL) just wanted to do something, you know, we'd say, "Fine." We'll do the same thing with Greg if he wanted to, and he probably would want to, I mean. But from our standpoint, I've never seen any decision remotely — if I thought that would make a difference, you know, he just wouldn't be the right kind of person to run Berkshire. And the problem, of course, is that you've got lots of process that can be involved with insiders and everything. And as long as I'm alive, you know, my interests are 100% with Berkshire. And the board, and probably and to some extent a little reluctantly, but they'd just say, "Well, Warren thinks the deal's OK. It must be OK." Which is true. (Laughs) So I could make a deal with anybody and it doesn't get all messed up with process. But on the other hand, if I'm not around, you know, the pressures are to directors to do whatever the lawyers tell them to do, and the lawyers tell them to do this and that. And then they want to bring in investment bankers to make evaluations. And the whole thing is a game from that point forward. And it's expensive. It takes a lot of time. So it would be better if it happened while I'm alive and around, but there's no reason — we'd rather have 100% than 91%, obviously, because more earnings for Berkshire. But there's no reason to try and do anything with either the Scott interests or Greg, unless they want to do it. And the logical thing is if anything happened with the Scotts, we'd certainly offer it to Greg. But who knows what happens in the future. The one thing I can guarantee you, Berkshire Hathaway holders will never be taken advantage of, and, you know, you can sue my estate or something like that (Laughs) if anybody felt differently about that. It isn't going to happen. But it's a lot easier if it's done while I'm around, actually, than if it's done later. But —
查理·芒格我倒希望我们能有 20 个更多像这样的利益冲突。
CHARLIE MUNGERI wish we had 20 more conflicts of interest just like it.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊。(笑声)没错。是的。不,这是个完全合理的问题。但这不成问题。任何达成的答案都会对各方有利。现在我没有任何感觉——我完全不知道斯科特家族持有的股票会流向哪里,或者他们怎么想,或者任何事。这取决于他们。你知道,沃尔特是我们的合伙人。对我们来说,我们把他相关的任何人也当作合伙人。他们知道这一点,不用担心我们占他们便宜。如果他们什么都不做,我们能理解。如果他们想做点什么,我们也能理解。不过,这是个好问题。谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Laughter) Yeah. That's exactly true. Yeah. No, it's a perfectly logical question. But it was not a problem. And any answer that's arrived at will be good for all concerned. And right now, I've got no feeling that — I have no knowledge at all of where the stock that the Scotts have goes or how they feel about it or anything. And that's up to them. You know, Walter was our partner. As far as we're concerned, we treat anybody connected with him as our partner. And they know that and they don't have to worry about us taking advantage of them. And if they don't do anything, we can understand that. If they want to do something, we can understand that. It's a good question, though. Thank you.
芒格:我愿意冒险投资中国
Munger: I'm willing to risk investing in China
WARREN BUFFETT好的。贝基?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Becky?
BECKY QUICK这个问题来自蒙大拿州博兹曼的史蒂夫·布莱克莫尔。这是给查理的。他说:“过去你基于估值指标,对中国投资说过一些正面的话。你现在怎么看?在你的分析中,政府的行为有多大的权重?”
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Steve Blackmore in Bozemon, Montana. This is to Charlie. He says, "In the past you've made favorable statements about investing in China, in part based upon valuation metrics. What is your opinion now, and how much weight do you put on the actions of the government in your analysis?"
BECKY QUICK“最近中国共产党的活动,包括侵犯人权、公然对美国公司等进行网络盗窃、打压商业和媒体言论等等,是否让你改变了投资中国的看法?你如何评估在威权体制下投资的明显风险,正如最近俄罗斯在乌克兰的暴行所显示的那样?”
BECKY QUICK"Do the recent communist party activities in China, including human rights violations, blatant cyber theft from U.S. companies and others, crackdowns on speech from business and media, et cetera, cause you to change your opinion on investing in China? And how do you evaluate the clear dangers of investing under authoritarian regimes, as recently evidenced by Russian atrocities in Ukraine?"
CHARLIE MUNGER嗯,这些都是好问题。毫无疑问,中国政府让投资中国的美国投资者感到担忧。近几个月来,这种担忧比早些年更甚。所以有些紧张。这影响了一些中国股票的价格,尤其是互联网股票。就在一两天前,中国领导人似乎有所转向,表示自己做得过火,要大幅收回等等。所以我们看到了一些希望迹象。但没错,在中国投资,我是说,与一个中国政权打交道,比在美国要难得多。这是不同的。它离得很远,他们有自己的文化和忠诚等等。我投资中国的原因是,我能以低得多的价格买到好得多的公司,我愿意冒点风险,以低价进入好公司。其他人可能会得出相反的结论。现在每个人都比两三年更担心中国。事情就是这样。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, those are good questions, and there's no question about the fact that the government of China has worried the investors from the United States who invest in China. More in recent months in years than he did in the earlier periods. So there's been some tension. And it's affected the prices of some of the Chinese stocks, particularly internet stocks. Just in the last day or two the Chinese leader has sort of reversed course on that, and said he went too far and he's going to pull way back and so on and so on. So we're having some hopeful signs. But yes, there are more difficulties investing in, I mean, dealing with a regime in China than there are in the United States. And it's different. It's a long way away, and they've got their own culture and their own loyalties and so on and so on. And the reason that I invested in China is I could get so much better companies at so much lower prices, and I was willing to take a little bit of a risk to get into the better companies at the lower prices. Other people might reach the opposite conclusion. And everybody is more worried about China now than they were two or three years ago. So that's just the way it is.
WARREN BUFFETT我没什么可补充的。(笑声)(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTI have nothing to add. (Laughter) (Applause)
伯克希尔保险浮存金的好处
The benefits of Berkshire's insurance float
WARREN BUFFETT好的。八号站。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station eight.
TOM RINGE沃伦和查理,你们好,我叫汤姆·林奇,来自宾夕法尼亚州韦恩。时隔两年回到这里真是太好了。非常感谢你们。
TOM RINGEHi Warren and Charlie, my name is Tom Ringe. I'm from Wayne, Pennsylvania. It's great to be back here after two years. Thank you very much.
WARREN BUFFETT谢谢你来。
WARREN BUFFETTThanks for coming.
TOM RINGE在你今年的信中,你谈到了保险浮存金、浮存金的演变、每股浮存金、回购对提高每股浮存金的影响。关于回购,作为你的合伙人,我要感谢你们谨慎的回购,以及谨慎的股份发行。
TOM RINGEIn this year's letter, you talked about insurance float, the evolution of float, the per share float, the effect on repurchase to increase the per share float. And in regard to the repurchase, I would say thank you as your partner for your careful repurchase, as well as careful issuance of our shares.
TOM RINGE我的问题是,你对浮存金保持稳定的可能性,以及成本长期为零或接近零(只是偶尔有不利年份)有什么预期?伯克希尔的保险业务有什么特质,让你有信心作出这种判断,而你们的竞争对手也在尝试做类似的事,却在浮存金的成本和增长记录上远远无法与伯克希尔相比?谢谢。
TOM RINGEMy question is about your expectation for the likelihood that float will be stable and the cost will be zero or close to that over time, with adverse years from time to time. What about Berkshire's insurance businesses give you the confidence to make that statement when your competitors are trying to do the same thing, but haven't been able to come close to achieving Berkshire's record in cost and growth of float? Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,其实他们并没有尝试做同样的事,这本身就挺有意思。回答你的问题:我们之所以做这行,是因为我的判断是,浮存金对我们有益的加权概率,高于对我们构成成本的概率。很长时间之内,没有人会知道这个判断到底对不对。到目前为止还算不错,但这只是一个判断。我完全可能判断错。不过,我想查理和我都会说,我们认为它朝着对我们有利的方向发展的概率更大,而且概率相当高;如果真有人能做到,我们处在非常有利的位置。可是,我们事先知道 9/11 会发生吗?我是说,这不是什么板上钉钉的事。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, they really aren't trying to do the same thing, which is kind of interesting. The answer to your question is we wouldn't be in the business unless it was my judgment that the likelihood, the weighted probabilities are higher that the float will be useful to us rather than costly to us. And nobody will know the answer to that for a very long time. So far, so good, but it is a judgment. And absolutely I could be wrong about it. But, you know, I think both Charlie and I would say that we think the odds are that it's weighing better, and the odds are pretty good, and that we're quite well-positioned to do it if anybody does it. But, you know, did we know 9/11 was coming? Or, you know, I mean, it is not a sure thing.
查理·芒格不过,想想看,它的潜力有多大。如果我们能用全部浮存金买入几乎确定可以拿到税后 8% 收益的普通股,那将是非常大的一笔钱。
CHARLIE MUNGERJust think of what the potential is, though, when you're reviewing it. If we could buy common stocks we were virtually sure would give us 8% after taxes with our whole float, that would be a hell of a lot of money.
沃伦·巴菲特是的,110 亿美元。我可以告诉你具体是多少。(笑)110 亿或 120 亿美元。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, $11 billion. I can tell you what it'd be. (Laughs) $11 billion or $12 billion.
查理·芒格对,这是一笔巨款。
CHARLIE MUNGERYes, and it's an enormous amount of money.
沃伦·巴菲特每年。
WARREN BUFFETTAnnually.
查理·芒格没错。而且浮存金一直在增长,所以,放宽心吧。(笑声)不过我们确实很高兴拥有浮存金。
CHARLIE MUNGERYes. And the float has been growing, so relax. (Laughter) But we're glad to have the float.
WARREN BUFFETT但查理刚才说了几个“如果”——如果我们能赚到这笔钱,如果我们能做到。答案是,你知道,这是我们的工作,我们认为自己能做得跟任何人一样好,否则我们就不会干这行。但我们的工作是搞清楚我们想进入哪些行业,当它们不再合理时,偶尔也得依依不舍地放弃,比如纺织业务。那些都是艰难的决定。至于保险,1967 年杰克·林沃特在差一刻 12 点走进办公室时,我完全没概念。是查理还是我安排他来的。杰克大概每年一次,会被监管机构惹毛。他就是不喜欢被监管。他会对自己说,“我要把这家破公司卖掉。”有一天查理逮到他,说,“杰克正在发情。”我说,“带他过来吧。”所以他在 11 点 45 分来了,杰克说他不想再要这破生意了。监管机构快把他逼疯了之类的。我说,“行,我买了。”我又问,“你要什么价?”他说,“就每股 50 美元吧。”我说,“好,成交了。我们不需要审计,什么都不需要。”然后杰克开始(迟疑),他说,“嗯。”他立刻就改了主意,但他太要面子,没法反悔。所以他说,“嗯,你大概想让我把代理权也卖给你吧。”我说,“不。”当然,如果我说“是”,那他大概会说,“那这事就办不成了。”所以我就说,“不,你留着吧,杰克。”他说,“我想你会让我……”我说,“不,不,我不会让你那么做的。”他其实希望我给他个台阶下。但这么折腾了 15 到 20 分钟后,他发现我对他所有条件都同意,就说他愿意以 50 美元卖给我。于是他就这么干了。事情就是这样。(欢呼)你知道,这纯粹是运气。还有杰克——
WARREN BUFFETTBut Charlie's talking a couple of ifs there, if we could earn it, and if we could. The answer is, you know, it's our job and we think we can do it as well as anybody, or we wouldn't be doing it. But it's our job to figure out what businesses we want to be in, and when they don't make sense, reluctantly, occasionally, to give up on them, like the textile business. But those are the hard decisions. And insurance, I didn't have the faintest idea back in 1967 when Jack Ringwalt stopped by the office at about a quarter of 12:00. And Charlie or I set him up. And Jack, about once a year, he'd get mad at the regulators. He just didn't like being regulated. And he'd say to himself, you know, "I'm going to sell this damn thing." And Charlie caught him one day and he said, "Jack was in heat." You know, I said, "Bring him around." So he came up quarter of 12:00, and Jack said he wanted to get rid of this damn business. The regulators were driving him nuts or something. And I said, "Fine, I'll buy it." And I said, "What price do you want?" And he said, "Like, $50 a share then." I said, "Fine, we've done it. We don't need an audit, we don't need anything." And then Jack started, and then he says, "Well." Immediately he really changed his mind, but he was too honorable to back out. So he said, "Well, I suppose you'll want me to sell you the agencies." And I said, "No." And, of course if I'd said yes, then he'd say, "Well, then we can't do it." So I just said, "No, you keep them, Jack," you know. And he says, "I suppose you'll want me to do," and I said, "No, no, I won't want you to do that." He was hoping I would just give him an out. But after doing that for 15 or 20 minutes, he saw that I was going to agree to everything he said, and he said he'd sell it to me at $50. So he forward through. And that was that. And, (CHEER) you know, it was pure luck. And Jack —
查理·芒格不过,沃伦,我们确实很喜欢我们的浮存金,不是吗?
CHARLIE MUNGERNow, but Warren, we really like our float, don't we?
沃伦·巴菲特你说什么?
WARREN BUFFETTPardon me?
查理·芒格我们确实喜欢浮存金。
CHARLIE MUNGERWe really like our float.
沃伦·巴菲特哦,对。
WARREN BUFFETTOh, yeah.
查理·芒格我们爱死它了。
CHARLIE MUNGERWe love it.
沃伦·巴菲特不,我们已经把浮存金的作用发挥到了极致,但在阿吉特出现之前,我们并没有把它用到极致。(笑)你想啊,谁能料到这个人在 1986 年走进我的办公室,然后我就认定,他就是那个能让这堆破事儿运转起来的人,而在此之前我一直没能用我想要的方式把它理清?又有谁能料到 GEICO 后来会出现?有太多这类事情了。你必须做到的一点是,机会到来时,得做好准备。你是真的必须马上行动。幸运的是,我身处的环境允许我这么做——我不会在任何其他环境里工作,会直接走人——但在这种环境下,我可以这么干。要是董事会说“我们要成立一个委员会来审查每一笔收购”之类的,那才叫疯了。我会说:“行啊,不过你们可以找别人合作,因为(笑)我就是不喜欢折腾这些事。”我剩下的生命里,还有其他事要做。运气成分太多了,但你的确必须在事情合理的时候,从心态上准备好去做,要大干一场,立刻行动。而且你还得确保自己有足够的资源去做。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, we've made the most of it, but we didn't make the most of it until Ajit came along. (Laughs) And, you know, who knew that the guy was going to walk into my office in 1986 and, you know, I would decide that he was the guy to make this damn thing work that I hadn't been able to make work the way I wanted it to? And who knew that GEICO would come along later? There's just all kinds of things. The one thing you have to do is be prepared when opportunity comes. You really do have to just move. And fortunately I operate in an environment, and I wouldn't operate in any other environment, I'd get out of there, but I operate in an environment where I can do it. And it would be crazy of the board to say, "We want to set up a committee to review every acquisition," and all that. And I would say, "That's fine, but you can work with somebody else because (Laughs) I just don't like to go through all that stuff." You know, I've got other things to do with the rest of my life. There's so much luck, but you do have to be mentally prepared to do something when it makes sense, and do it big time, and do it instantly. And then you've got to be sure you've got the resources to do it.
查理·芒格伯克希尔内部相对没有官僚主义——
CHARLIE MUNGERThe relative absence of bureaucracy at Berkshire —
沃伦·巴菲特难以置信。
WARREN BUFFETTUnbelievable.
查理·芒格——这让公司在很长很长一段时间里多赚了很多钱。
CHARLIE MUNGER—has made the company a lot of extra money for a very, very long time.
沃伦·巴菲特也让我的生活更开心。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd it's made my life happier.
查理·芒格是的,那很理想。(掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd yes, that's ideal. (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特没错,但最终,我们在利用浮存金做我们想做的事上,拥有极其有利的位置,同时从不把自己置于哪怕接近做出无力兑现的承诺的境地。早在阿吉特之前,我们就有两家小型保险子公司,是我买下的两家公司。一家我真的不太了解,另一家是我自己搞定的。它们都是灾难。如果放任不管,它们本来早就破产了。我们只是不想那样。你知道,如果母公司介入,或者我们把它们放进另一家保险公司之类,我们可以支付负债,我们也确实这么做了。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, but in the end, we are extraordinarily well-positioned to do exactly what we want to do with float, while at the same time never putting ourselves in the position, never coming close to making a promise we can't keep. We had two small insurance subsidiaries well before Ajit, with two companies I had bought. One I really didn't know that much about, the other one I did it all by myself. And they were disasters. And left alone, which they could've been, they'd have gone bankrupt. And we just didn't want to do it. So, you know, we could pay the liabilities if the parent company got involved, or we put it in another insurance company or something, and we did it.
“我把伯克希尔看作一幅画”
"I look at Berkshire as a painting"
沃伦·巴菲特我的意思是,伯克希尔,以一种疯狂的方式,我把伯克希尔看作一幅画。它没有尺寸限制。它有一块不断扩展的画布,我可以画我想画的东西。如果有人想画别的,那我就(笑)拿个小点儿的画布,自己在那儿画。实际上,我对绘画一窍不通。带我去艺术博物馆,我唯一想知道的是厕所在哪儿。(笑声)我就是不感兴趣。其他人看画,他们能看到一些东西。然后之后他们还能看到更多。我的意思是,他们在这方面确实有不同一般的感知能力。对我来说,伯克希尔就是一幅画,我可以画。目标显然是想让我的合作伙伴从中受益。但我喜欢的是绘画本身。只要它还在我脑子里,我一边画一边看到不同的东西,这是我能想到的最接近让我每分每秒都享受的事情。我不会把这个推荐给别人。偶尔,嗯,不是那么偶尔,我会在画里看到一些东西,我想,“嗯,我本来应该那么画的。”然后我回去把它重画一遍。这很让人满足。谁知道人类为什么会以这种方式反应。但我确实知道什么让我快乐,什么让我不快乐。我找到了让我快乐的东西。所以我到底为什么要改变它呢?(笑)这就是对一个我记不起来是什么问题的不长的回答。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTI mean, Berkshire, you know, in a crazy way, I look at Berkshire as a painting. You know, and it's unlimited in size. It's got an ever-expanding canvas and I get to paint what I want. And if somebody wants to paint something else, then I'll (Laughs) get a smaller little thing and I'll paint away. And, you know, I actually, you know, I don't know anything about paintings. Take me to an art museum, and you know, all I really want to know is where the men's room is. But, (Laughter) you know, I'm just not interested. And other people look at paintings and they see something. And then they see something additionally later on. I mean, they really have a different sort of perception ability in relation to that. And to me Berkshire's a painting and I get to paint. And, you know, the object, obviously I want my partners to come out well in it. But the real thing I like is the painting. And as long as, you know, it's in my head and I see different things in it as I go along, and you know, it's, you know, the closest thing I can come to enjoying myself every minute of the day. And I don't prescribe it for other people. And occasionally I, well, not so occasionally, but I see things in the painting, you know, I think, "Well, I should've done that differently." And I go back and paint it over. And it's satisfying. And who knows why human beings react in that manner. But I do know what makes me happy and what doesn't make me happy. And I found what makes me happy. So why in the world would I change it? (Laughs) So that's a short answer to a question that I can't remember what it was. (Laughter)
经济刺激是必要的,但它助长了通胀
Economic stimulus was needed, but it has fueled inflation
沃伦·巴菲特好的。贝基?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Becky?
贝基·奎克这个问题来自明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯的安德鲁·克索(音译)。他说:“去年沃伦提到,通胀已经显著影响了伯克希尔旗下公司支付和收取的价格。鉴于这些通胀趋势持续,在某些情况下,自去年股东大会以来还有所加速,您能否谈谈,这段通胀时期与之前类似时期(比如 1970 年代和 1980 年代)相比如何?美国的企业和公民能做些什么来减少通胀带来的负面影响?”
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Andrew Kesaw (PH) from Minneapolis, Minnesota. He says, "Last year Warren mentioned that inflation had noticeably impacted the prices that Berkshire's businesses were paying and charging. Given those inflationary trends have continued, and in some cases accelerated since last year's meeting, could you comment on how this particular inflationary period ranks among previous such periods in the United States, like the 1970s and 1980s? And what can American businesses and citizens do to reduce the negative impacts that inflation brings about?"
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们实际上已经在应对它们了,你自己在做什么,然后,你知道,你要培养那些别人未来愿意为之付费的技能,不管交换媒介是什么。但就我们自身业务中的通胀而言,我们看到的变化惊人。你知道,我想你采访过家具城的伊夫·布拉姆金,两年来,这些东西的价格一直在涨。我们以更高的价格卖出,而人们手里的钱比以往更多了。他们喜欢购物。有些东西是他们能买到的。这就像二战期间,当时大量货币被创造出来,人们买不到汽车,买不到冰箱,甚至买不到想要的糖或咖啡之类的东西。他们还有汽油配给券和各种票证。嗯,最终,如果你让人们手里拿着大量钞票却没有多少商品可买,价格就会上涨。你可以用各种手段,你知道,试图把价格压下去。当然,通胀从来不会一成不变。经济学里没有哪件事是第二次发生时和第一次完全相同的,因为第一次的经验会影响人们第二次时的态度,而他们的态度总是反过来影响经济活动本身。我的意思是,这是一个有趣的现象。人们写教科书,他们会根据上一次的经验来写。然后人们读了这些教科书,所以下次他们的行为就不一样了。接着他们又会纳闷,为什么这次得到的结果和上次不一样。所以不管怎样,我们发放了非常非常多的钱,我说“我们”指的是美国政府,政府给人们发了大量的钱。而在某个节点,你知道,当流通中的钱变多之后,钱就不可能再像之前那么值钱了。这里有一个有趣的数据,我想很可能会让你震惊。至少它让我震惊。美联储每个星期四都会发布一份资产负债表。美联储和财政部是复杂的机构。但他们确实会发布这样一份综合报表,汇总了所有联邦储备银行以及多年来通过立法产生的各种项目。但确实有这么一份资产负债表。大约 15 年前,如果你去看,你知道,美联储发行了我刚才提到的那种钞票。还有现在的版本。(笑)他们印出这些纸张。然后,通过各种方式,这些钱到了人们手里。嗯,有趣的是,人们说现金已死,各种说法都有,你知道,无现金社会。好了,当时流通中的货币是 8000 亿美元,回到 10 或 15 年前,大约 8000 亿美元。而如果你看上周四的报告,你会发现现在流通中的货币大概是,嗯,2.2 万亿美元。2.2 万亿美元。现在,美国大约有 3.3 亿人口。我们从这个角度看。3.3 亿人,流通中几乎有 2.3 万亿美元的货币,那就是每人 7000 美元,理论上,每个男人、女人和小孩,都拥有 7000 美元的货币。嗯,你知道,这不对。但你知道美联储的账目基本上是正确的。确实有那么多钱在外流通。我不知道这些钱在哪。我是说,我不知道它们是不是在俄罗斯。我不知道它们是不是在南美。我不知道在哪,你知道,我不知道是不是查理把它们全拿走了。我是说,(笑声)这是一个惊人的数字,你知道吗?现金已死,然而我们,平均下来,每个美国人手里有 7000 美元。现在,在你消化这个数字的同时,想一想如果美国政府说,好吧,他们私下里搞了个方案,决定要发钱,美联储,我不打算怪美联储,是华盛顿的某个人决定要给美国每个家庭寄 100 万美元。美国大约有 1.3 亿个家庭,你知道?他们要给你寄 100 万美元现金。还附带几个条件。一个是如果你在接下来的 30 天里谈论这件事,钱就消失了。就像以前那些老电视剧里一样,“噗”的一声就消失了。30 天后你可以花这笔钱。好了,突然间,美国家庭的财富,美联储发布了一个估算,大约是 130 万亿美元左右。所以基本上,家庭财富翻倍了。而你做的只是把钱寄出去,但你并没有告诉别人你给所有人都在寄。你只是告诉他们中了彩票,或者别的什么。现在你有了和家庭财富相当的一笔钱。平均下来,人们的财富翻倍了。他们多了这额外的 130 万亿美元财富。一个月后,他们可以花掉它。那么,会发生什么?嗯,价格会上涨。但他们会立刻上涨吗?嗯,你不知道别人也拿到了钱,你只知道你拿到了,所以你并不觉得需要赶紧冲出去买东西。但一旦风声传开,嗯,我们已经寄出去这么多,如果你看看我们分配的数额,联邦政府,我只是在说资源分配,我们谈论的是像那样的数字。这会影响价格。它必然会影响价格。如果你手里的钱多了十倍,如果你回到家发现你的净资产是昨天的十倍,但其他所有人也一样,这并不会增加经济中的面包数量或汽车数量。这只会意味着价格,这些东西的价值将会下降。而这就是购买力。你不能买到超过实际存在的商品。所以这是一个非常奇怪的时期,我们给人们寄了很多钱,他们通过各种方式拿到了钱,却发现没有以前那么多东西可买了。我们还遇到了供应链中断。所有这些事情都发生了。但最终的结果是他们走进内布拉斯加家具城,然后开始疯狂购物。他们在我们的其他公司也是这样。他们的行为方式非常特别。现在他们正在买,我的意思是,有一件事,珠宝店通常来说并不是一门非常好的生意。两年前,每个在商场里有珠宝店或多家珠宝店的房东,你知道,都在担心怎么收租。而现在,几乎每家珠宝店都做得比他们梦想的还要好得多,库存却少得多,因为人们进来就买。他们不等打折。你知道,他们走进店里,然后就会买点东西出来。他们付了钱。他们手里有钱。所以我们正在目睹这样一个事实的释放:我们只是以这样或那样的方式给人们寄了很多钱。这非常间接,当你谈论一个庞大的系统时,事情会变得复杂。但这就是发生的事。我向你保证,如果我们给美国每个家庭寄 100 万美元,而你不知道这件事发生了,你知道,你真的不指望明天的行为会有什么变化。但不知怎的,在某个时刻,然后如果你开始每个月都这么做,我们假设,人们真的知道你在这么做,那么他们就会开始预期,提前购买,甚至超前购买。我的意思是,经济学里有无数种可能。但答案是,我们已经经历了很多通胀,而且几乎不可能不发生通胀,如果你要寄出我们寄出的那么多钱的话。而且我们这么做可能也是件好事。事实上,我认为在某个时刻,美联储,实际上是创造货币的机构,如果他们没有这么做,你们的生活现在会糟得多,糟糕得多。那是一个重要的决定。而这就是我们经历通胀的原因。天知道,我是说,这可能会结束。你可以让国家陷入衰退。你可以做各种事情。顺带说一句,这个国家会有衰退,而且还会周期性地出现萧条。事情会以不同的方式发展。你今天读报纸,一年后你会想,“我一年前为什么要读那份报纸?”我是说,事情就是这样运作的。当我在 1942 年买入第一只股票时,我知道之后会发生的一切吗?当然不知道。我什么都不知道。但我只需要有一个想法。那个想法当时其实并不成熟,可能只是几乎所有孩子在我们刚参战时的普遍感受,你知道?我们觉得美国会赢。如果美国当时会赢,那么它总体上也会赢。储蓄债券的收益率是 2.9%。我之所以知道是因为我们买了。它们最初被称为战争债券,然后改叫国防债券,后来又改叫储蓄(笑)债券。但它们其实是同一种东西。你印出大量的钱,钱就会贬值。不是变得一文不值。有一次我在 CNBC 上因此惹了麻烦,因为我说它会变得,单独来说,价值更少。但被曲解成了“一文不值”。(笑声)所以我花了好几年才学会如何区分这两个词。不管怎样,这就是我对经济学知道的一切,甚至更多。查理可能能说得更好。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we've sort of attacked them, what you do yourself, and then, you know, you develop the skills that people are willing to pay for in the future, regardless of what the unit of exchange is. But in terms of inflation in our own businesses it's extraordinary how much we've seen. You know, I think you interviewed Irv Blumkin at the Furniture Mart, and two years, you know, the prices have just kept coming in higher for these things. And we sell them for higher prices, and people have more money than they've had before. And they like to buy. And there are certain things they can buy. It's like during World War II, you had a lot of money created, and people couldn't buy cars, and they couldn't buy refrigerators, and they couldn't even buy as much sugar or coffee or things as they wanted. And they had little stamps for gasoline and all kinds of things. Well, eventually if you get a lot of money in people's hands and you don't have very many goods, prices go up. You can do all kinds of things to, you know, try and talk it down. And, of course, inflation is never the same. Nothing in economics is the same the second time after it happens than the first, because the first affects people's attitudes in the second, and their attitudes always influence the activity itself. I mean, it is an interesting phenomenon. People write a textbook, and they write it based on the last experience. And people read the textbooks, so they behave differently next time. And then they wonder why they're getting a different result than they got the time before. So anyway, we have sent out lots and lots and lots, and when I say "we" I mean the United States government, the government has sent out lots of money to people. And at some point, you know, the money can't be worth as much as it was when there was less money out. Here's an interesting figure that I think probably will astound you. It astounds me, anyway. The Federal Reserve, every Thursday, puts out a balance sheet. And the Federal Reserve and Treasury, they're complicated institutions. But they do put out this kind of consolidated statement of all the various Federal Reserve banks, all these things that have entered into legislation over the years. But there's a balance sheet. And 15 years ago, roughly, if you look, you know, the Federal Reserve issues those notes I talked about a while back. And there's the current one. (Laughs) And they print these pieces of paper. And they, one way or another, they get into the hands of people. Well, the interesting thing is, people said cash is dead and all that sort of thing, you know, cashless society. Well, there were $800 billion, go back ten or 15 years, about $800 billion of currency in circulation. And if you look at last Thursday's report, you'll see there's something like, now, $2.2 trillion of currency in circulation. $2.2 trillion. Now, there's about 330 million people in the United States. Let's look at it that way. And with 330 million people, and you have almost $2.3 trillion of currency in circulation, that's $7,000 per person, every man, woman, and child, in theory, has $7,000 worth of currency. Well, you know, that isn't right. But you do know that the Federal Reserve's bookkeeping is essentially right. They've got that much that's out there. I don't know where it is. I mean, I don't know whether it's in Russia. I don't know whether it's in South America. I don't know where, you know, I don't know whether Charlie's got it all. I mean, (Laughter) it's a staggering sum, you know? Cash is dead, and yet we, on average, have $7,000 for every person in the United States. Now, while you're absorbing that, think for a moment what would happen if the U.S. government said, well, they work it out in private and they decide that they're going to send, the Federal Reserve, and I'm not going to blame the Federal Reserve for this, someone back in Washington decides they're going to send out $1 million to every household in the United States. And there are 130 million households in the United States or something like that, you know? And they're going to mail you $1 million in cash. And there were a couple provisions attached to it. One is if you talked about it in the next 30 days, the money disappeared. So just like in one of those old TV shows or something, and poof, disappears. And after 30 days you could spend it. Well, all of a sudden, the household wealth of the United States, the Federal Reserve puts out an estimate, is $130 trillion or something like that. So basically, you've doubled the household wealth. And all you've done is mailed out people, but then you don't tell them you're doing it with everybody. You just say they won the lottery, or whatever it may be. And now you've got an amount equal to household wealth. On average people have doubled. They've got this extra $130 trillion of wealth. And in a month, they can spend it. Well, what's going to happen? Well, prices are going to go up. But are they going to go up immediately? Well, you don't know the other guy got it, you just know you've got it, so you don't really feel like you've got to rush out and buy things. But as soon as word gets around, well, we've mailed out, if you look at the amount we've distributed, the federal government, I'm just talking about the distribution of resources, we're talking numbers like that. And it affects prices. It has to affect prices. If you had ten times as much, if you went home and you found out you had ten times the net worth you had yesterday but everybody else has the same thing, it doesn't increase the amount of bread in the economy or the number of cars. It just means that the price, the value of this is going to go down. And it's purchasing power. You can't buy more than exists. So it's a very strange period where we have lots of money sent out to people, who one way or another were getting it, that they didn't find as many things to buy as before. And we had supply chain disruption. And you have all these things happen. But the end of it is they go into the Nebraska Furniture Mart and they just start buying things. And they do it with our other companies. And they do it in very peculiar ways. And now they're buying, I mean, one thing, jewelry stores were, generally speaking, not a very good business. And two years ago, every landlord that had a jewelry store, or multiple jewelry stores in their mall, you know, was wondering how they were going to get their rent. And now every jewelry store virtually is doing incredibly better than they ever dreamt with way less inventory, because people just come in and buy. They don't wait for sales. You know, when they walk in the store they're going to walk out and they're going to have bought something. And they paid for it. They've got the money. So we are seeing an unleashing of the fact that we've just mailed a lot of money to people, one way or another. It's very indirect, and it all gets complicated when you talk about a big system. But this is what's happened. And I will guarantee you that if we mail out $1 million to every household in the United States, and you don't know that it's happened, you know, you don't really expect much to happen in behavior tomorrow. But somehow, at some point, and then if you start doing that every month, we'll say, and people really know you're doing it, then they start anticipating it and buying ahead of time and forward. I mean, there's a million things that happen in economics. But the answer is we've had a lot of inflation and it was almost impossible not to have, if you're going to mail out the kind of money we've mailed out. And it's probably a good thing we did it. In fact, I think there was one point when the Federal Reserve, which in fact creates the money, if they hadn't done it your lives would be a lot worse, a whole lot worse now. And that was an important decision. And that's why you've had inflation. And heaven knows, I mean, it could end. You can throw the country into recession. You can do all kinds of things. The country's going to have recessions, incidentally, and it's going to have depressions periodically. And things will happen differently. And you'll read a newspaper today and you'll wonder a year from now, "Why was I reading the newspaper a year ago?" I mean, it's just the way it works. When I bought the first stock in 1942, did I know everything was going to happen afterwards? Of course not. I didn't know a damn thing. But I just needed to have one idea. And that idea wasn't really well-formed, it was just probably the way practically every kid felt about the country when we'd just gone into a war, you know? We thought America was going to win. And if America was going to win then, it was going to win just generally. And savings bonds were paying 2.9%. I learned that because we bought them. They called them war bonds originally, and then they called them defense bonds, and then they called them savings (Laughs) bonds. But they were the same thing. And you print loads of money and money's going to be worth less. Not worthless. I got in trouble doing that one time at CNBC, because I said it was going to be worth, separately, less. But it got contracted down to "worthless". (Laughter) So it took me a few years to learn to separate those words somehow. Anyway, that's everything I know about economics and more. And Charlie can probably improve on it.
查理·芒格嗯,这次发生的事,其规模前所未有。他们直接给每一个声称开了一家公司、声称雇了员工的人寄去支票。他们大概算是用钱把整个国家短暂地淹没了一回。而且如你所说,他们大概也非这么做不可。但这确实是以前从未有人以如此巨大的规模做过的事。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, it happened on a scale which would never seen before. Those checks are just mailed out to everybody who claimed to have a business and claimed to have employees. They've probably drowned the country in money for a while. And as you say, they probably had to do it. But it was something that had never been done on that scale before.
沃伦·巴菲特但我们当时也碰上了一个以前没遇到过的问题。
WARREN BUFFETTBut we had a problem we hadn't had before.
查理·芒格是啊,哦(笑)不,我不是说那不是个好主意。
CHARLIE MUNGERYes, oh (Laughs) no, I'm not saying it wasn't a good idea.
沃伦·巴菲特要我说,[美联储主席] 杰伊·鲍威尔是个英雄。我是说,道理非常简单。我是说,他做了他不得不做的事,你明白吗?如果他当时什么都没做,那他,那个,就会陷入一种可以称之为“手抱膝盖干瞪眼”的境地。而且有挺多——我不该说有挺多,但历史上确实有其他美联储主席是会选择袖手旁观的。那样的话,世界就会在他们四周土崩瓦解。而且不会有人确切地指摘他们,大家会去怪病毒、怪中国人,怪各种各样的事情。
WARREN BUFFETTI mean, in my book, [Federal Reserve Chairman] Jay Powell is a hero. I mean, it's very simple. I mean, he did what he had to do, you know? If he had done nothing, I mean, he would be, you know, it'd be very easy to engage in what you would call thumb sucking then. And plenty of, I shouldn't say plenty of, but there are other Fed chairmen that would've been sucking their thumbs. And the world would've fallen around them. And nobody would've exactly blamed them, they would've blamed the virus and the Chinese and all kinds of things.
查理·芒格嗯,日本这个例子格外有意思,他们先是买回了全部债务,然后又动手买回所有普通股。这的确相当诡异。而他们得到了什么呢?长达二十五年的停滞。谁能事先预料到呢?
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, the really interesting company is Japan, where first they bought back all the debt, then they started buying back all the common stocks. Now, that's really weird. And what did they get? Twenty five years of stasis. Who would've predicted that?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,没有人预测到什么。我是说,(笑)我们不在乎任何人的预测,包括我们自己的。意思很简单。我们确切知道的是,我们配得上你们的信任,而且没有任何理由去做不配得到信任的事。我们没法预知未来,但大致上,我们努力打造一个也许扛不住全面核战争,但能承受任何我们可以尽力去防范的一切的伯克希尔。这让我们感觉不错。但还没到让我们感觉完美的地步。我们甚至希望向你们承诺得更多,但我们确实没法承诺更多了。所以,道理非常简单。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, nobody predicted anything. I mean, (Laughs) there's nobody's predictions that we're interested in, including our own. I mean, it's very simple. What we do know is that we can deserve your trust, and there's no reason to do things that don't deserve it. And we can't tell, but basically we think we're trying to build a Berkshire that can't withstand a nuclear exchange, but it can withstand as much as anything that we can do anything about. And that leaves us feeling good. It doesn't leave us feeling perfect. We'd like to even promise you more than that, but we can't promise more than that. So it's very simple.
GAAP 会计准则是否应该改变?
Should GAAP accounting rules be changed?
沃伦·巴菲特这个问题就到这儿,我们进入第 18 号提问。我看看,那是九号站。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd with that one we'll move on to 18. Let's see, that's station nine.
伊莱·阿布沙卡尊敬的巴菲特先生和芒格先生,我是来自加拿大蒙特利尔的伊莱·阿布沙卡。感谢你们为我们——各位股东伙伴们——所做的一切。我的问题有关 GAAP 准则。如果由你们来改,你们会怎么改?改完会是什么样子?谢谢。
ELI ABUSHAKARDear Mr. Buffet and Mr. Munger, I'm Eli Abushakar (PH) from Montreal, Canada. I would like to thank you for everything you've done for us, your fellow shareholder. My question is regarding the GAAP rules. If you were to change it, what would you change? What would it look like? Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我会辞掉这份差事。你会怎么做,查理?(笑声)不,这是个无解的问题。因为首先,你得确定 GAAP 本应反映什么。它并不反映价值。但在某些情况下,当然,明说某个东西就是价值,又很重要。我是说,它只是一种惯例,这么设计主要是为了让审计师获得保护,否则在这个国家,任何人都会因为任何事起诉所有人。它的设计思路,是让那些想把数据报成市场想要的某个数的人,大体上都能做到。我不知道如果是我,该怎么写这套规则。我是说,我见过一些人,我很乐意和他们做邻居,如果我要出门两周、孩子要寄住在别人家,让孩子住到他们家里我完全放心。如果我在某处丢了钱包他们捡到了,一定会还给我。可一旦数字到了他们手上,他们照样会对任何数字动手脚。当然,在一家公司里,如果数字被人做手脚,而你又是审计委员会的成员,这处境相当尴尬。他们巴不得你别多事;你要是跳出来质疑,各种麻烦就都来了。我其实在好些年前写过一些东西。我想,大概 15 年前我就预感到你们会问这类问题。我写了四条供向审计委员会提的问题。我不记得当时我是可口可乐还是哪家公司的审计委员会成员了。不过不管怎样,当时的情况,我心里是很清楚的。但你只能跟着那套虚头巴脑的流程走,否则也会惹来一大堆麻烦。于是,我直接列出了四条我自己想弄明白的问题。都是些完全合乎逻辑的问题。后来没有公司采纳。我是说,(笑)而那个体系就这么原样运转着,也好好的。审计师会被起诉,但也不那么频繁。SEC 有一大堆规则,我倒是极其钦佩 SEC。我认为有了 SEC,这个国家变得更好。但试图设计出一套让人无法绕过去的规则,这是个毫无希望的问题。我的一位作家朋友说过:“骇人听闻的,往往不是非法的事,而是合法的事。”这太难了。你尽力去尝试,也值得去做。你需要 SEC。但 SEC 也根本挡不住那些事——那些但凡讲出来你都会觉得离谱的事。审计师也面临同样的问题。我是说,审计师,他们要规则,要流程,要让规则可以操作。查理,他在所罗门担任过审计委员会成员,我们当时恐怕有上百万份合约,上面都有人填写数字,而查理发现了一笔 2000 万美元的问题,我记得我们当时聘的是全国最大的审计事务所,安达信,查理——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I would resign the job. What would you do, Charlie? (Laughter) No, it's an impossible problem. Because first of all you have to decide what GAAP is supposed to reflect. And it doesn't reflect value. But in certain cases, of course, it is important to say that this is value and so on. I mean, it's a convention and it is done so that the auditor generally is protected, because otherwise everybody sues everybody in this country for anything. And it's designed to cause people who want to report a given amount of whatever is desired by the market to largely be able to do it. And I don't know how I would write the rules. I mean, I've watched people who I would be delighted to have live next to me, you know, if I was going away for two weeks and my kids were to stay at somebody's house, it'd be fine with me if they stayed there. If I lost my wallet someplace and they found it, they'd return it to me. But they'd play games with any number that came to them. And, of course, it's a very awkward thing to be on the audit committee of a company where people are playing around with the numbers. And they don't want you, if you raise a stink you've got all kinds of problems. And I actually wrote something some years ago. I was kind of anticipating your question about 15 years ago, I guess. And I wrote four suggestions for questions to be asked of the audit committee. And I don't know whether I was on the audit committee then of Coke or whatever. But anyway, I mean, it was just clear to me what was happening. But you really had to follow the charade, or you got in all kinds of trouble for doing that too. And so, I just put four questions out that I would want to know. And they were perfectly logical questions. And then nobody adopted them. I mean, (Laughs) and the system was fine as it was. The auditors got sued, but not that often. And the SEC had lots of rules, and I admired the SEC enormously. I think the country's better off because of the SEC. But it is a hopeless question, or problem to devise rules that people can't get around. My friend that was a writer said, "It's not the illegal things that are outrageous, it's the legal things." It's very hard. You try and it's worthwhile. You need an SEC. But the SEC can't really stop stuff that, you know, you would find outrageous if explained. And the auditors have the same question. I mean, the auditors, they want rules, and they want processes, and they want it to be so they can operate. Charlie, he was on the audit committee of Salomon, and we had probably literally millions of contracts where people put numbers in and he found that $20 million, we had the largest auditing firm in the country then, Arthur Andersen, as I remember Charlie —
查理·芒格他们现在已经没了。
CHARLIE MUNGERThey're gone now.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,他们现在已经没了。可他们当年(笑声)是最大的。查理我记得有一次在审计中发现了一个 2000 万美元的差错。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, they're gone now. But they were (Laughter) the largest. And Charlie found a $20 million error I think one time in an audit.
查理·芒格他们管那叫“塞子”。要是你的会计师开始满口“塞子”,那可不是好事。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERThey called it a plug. When your accountant starts talking about a plug, it's not good. (Laughter)
所罗门的“浮动塞子”
Salomon's "floating plug"
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我给你们讲个以前没讲过的故事。(笑)你们在那部影片里看到,我 8 月在一个小组委员会面前作过证,台下的委员们正铆足了劲想按他们的意思来。我当时打定主意,索性老老实实回答每一个问题,不打算遮遮掩掩。于是我就坐在他们面前,知之为知之,不知为不知。当时我还说了一句话,绝对是实话,就是我只在所罗门待了十天左右,我说:“目前我在账目上还真没看到什么让我觉得触目惊心的事。”但我那会儿才到了十天。而那个让我们卷进这场大麻烦的家伙,到那时为止是我发现的唯一一个问题。我不知道接下来还会查出什么。我怎么可能知道,在一个每天经手惊人交易数量和各种业务的机构里,到底都在发生着些什么呢?嗯,我那时说的是:“就我目前所见,账目在我看来是合规的。”大约一个月后,我非常庆幸自己是在更早而不是更晚作的证。一位非常优秀的 CFO 来找我——他们其实都是体面人,非常体面的人。他进来后说:“沃伦,有件事你可能应该知道。”我说:“什么事?”他说,大约 12 年前,所罗门与菲布罗——一家庞大的贸易公司——合并了。所罗门当时是家庞大的投资银行。二者合并后变成了一个巨无霸。他说,12 年前合并时,我们有点搞不清楚账目,他们用的是交易入账,我们用的是结算入账。然后他说,我们一直没太搞明白该怎么把两套账合并到一块儿。而负责签字背书的可是美国当时最大的审计公司,安达信。于是,我们就弄出这么一个数字来,每天都在变。把它放在那里,纯粹就是为了让资产等于负债。(笑声)今天呢,它是 173,412,000 美元,精确到每一分钱。明天又会变成一个别的数。我当时心里就想:“我真是太庆幸自己是一个月前在国会作的证了,因为我当时压根不知道这事。”但要是他们后面再问我,我就会一五一十把实情告诉他们。“我们就是有个每天都在到处浮动的数字,12 年都没找着出处,而且安达信也不知道它在哪儿。”(笑声)你们想啊,你总得让资产等于负债吧,对吧?不然还能怎么办?实际情况就是这样。这个世界奇奇怪怪的事有的是。那位先生——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I'll tell you a story I haven't told before. (Laughs) You saw in that movie, people over here saw me testify in August before a subcommittee who were out, you know, to get their way. And I just decided, you know, I was just going to answer every question honestly, and I was not going to try and draw up everything. And then so I just sat in front of them, and said what I knew and didn't know. And one of the things I said, which was absolutely true, is that I'd only been there ten days or so at Salomon, but I said, "I really haven't seen anything yet that strikes me as terrible in accounting." But I've been there ten days. But this guy who got us in all this trouble, so far he's the only thing I've found. I don't know what else is going to be found, how in the hell could I know what was going on in a place that was doing, you know, incredible numbers of transactions and everything? Well, I said, you know, "What I'm seeing, the accounting strikes me as legit." About a month later, I was so happy I'd testified earlier and not later, a very fine CFO, and these are decent people. They're very decent people. And he comes in and he said, "Warren, there's probably something you should know." And I said, "Well, what's that?" And he said, well, 12 years earlier, or whatever it was, Salomon had merged with Phibro, which was a huge trading company. Salomon was a huge investment banking company. And they became this huge powerhouse. And he said that 12 years ago when we merged with them, we sort of couldn't find exactly, they were on a trade basis and we were on a settlement basis. And then he said we never really figured out how to put the books together. This was the largest audit company in the United States, Arthur Andersen, that's responsible for signing this thing. So, we had this number and every day it moves around. And it's just put in there to make assets equal liabilities. (Laughter) And, you know, today it's $173,412,000, you know, and down to the penny. And tomorrow it'll be something different, you know? And I thought to myself, "I am sure glad I testified before Congress a month ago, because I did not know then." But if they ever ask me again, I'm going to tell them exactly what happened. "We've just got this number that floats around every day, and we haven't found it in 12 years, and Arthur Andersen doesn't know where it is." (Laughter) And, you know, you've got to make the assets equal to the liabilities, right? So what else do you do? And that's exactly what happened. And strange things happen in this world. This one guy —
查理·芒格我记得那个名字就叫浮动塞子。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERI think the name was the floating plug. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特对,可不是嘛。而查理当时还是审计委员会成员呢。(笑声)是啊,一直有一个我反复提的建议,从来没有人愿意去做,我也理解为什么。但全世界每天都有价值数万亿美元的合同和各类东西,银行、投行、全世界各地每天都有人在上面填上一个个小数字。我是说,商品交易商是这样,在伯克希尔,我们也会记上一笔,监管机构甚至要求我们在公用事业业务上做一些对冲。我们也填一个小数字上去。我提过一两次这个建议:如果你真想做点比较有意思的事,就找个年轻人,给他几周时间,挑出最复杂、期限最长、条款最绕的 100 份衍生品合同。看看承诺履约的那一方是怎么估值的,再看看报告交易的另一方又是怎么估值的。你就让他们随机去查 100 笔。我只是想知道,如果我们给某份合同估的是 2800 万美元,对方估的却是 3300 万美元。而且两边用的还是同一家审计师事务所。他们可都在报告上签了字的。我感觉从来没有人根据我这个建议去采取过任何行动。(笑)说实话,要是我真想深挖会计上到底在发生什么,这就是我会做的第一件事。但人这辈子有很多事是你改变不了的。没人会主动去找官司打、找新闻上,(笑)给自己招惹一堆麻烦。我也不怪他们。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, you know, yeah. And Charlie's on the audit committee. (Laughter) Yeah, the one thing I've always suggested, nobody ever wants to do this, and I can understand why, but you've got trillions of dollars worth of contracts and everything that people are putting down little numbers for every day at banks and investment banks and all over the world. I mean, commodity traders, and at Berkshire we stick down, you know, there's certain hedging the even the regulators want us to do in terms of giving utilities. And we put a little number in. And I made this suggestion once or twice that if you really want to do something sort of interesting, you know, just get some young guy that, give them a couple of weeks and pick the hundred most kind of complicated, long-term, you know, lots of wording derivative contracts. And look at what one side who promises to do something values it at, and look at what the other side, who also reports. You know, and just let them do it for 100 operations at random. I'd just like to know if we're valuing a contract at $28 million, the other guy's valuing it at $33 million. You know, and you've got the same auditing firm in both cases. And they're signing their name to it. I don't think anybody's ever done anything (Laughs) with that suggestion. And, you know, that would be the first thing I would do, actually, if I really wanted to sort of dig into what was happening in accounting. But there's a lot of things in life you can't change. And nobody is going to go looking for ways to create lawsuits and newspaper stories, (Laughs) and all kinds of things. And I don't blame them.
如何以折扣价拿到公允意见书
How to get a fairness opinion at a discount
沃伦·巴菲特各位,我带了一样东西来,实在忍不住要说。我本来指望有人能问我一个问题,那我干脆自己问好了。(笑声)我期望能有人问:怎么会有这么蠢的人,提出每股 848.02 美元这样的报价来收购 Alleghany Corp?难道这不显得有点太精确了吗,对吧?(笑)当然,我在提出收购要约时也确实做了安排:报价是 850 美元,减去支付给 Alleghany 公司自己选定的任何投资银行的费用,而他们必须走这个流程,因为特拉华州的法律就是那样设计的——董事们如果获得了专家意见之类的东西,就能得到保护。所以我不责怪制度里的任何人。但我只是觉得,这或许对特拉华州的法官、特拉华州的立法者、写论文的人之类有所启发,谁知道呢。我建议我们这样:既然我愿意为这家公司一股支付 850 美元,那么顾问费是 1000 万美元还是 4000 万美元,对某些人来说就有差别了。对我们买方来说,这始终有差别,但游戏规则就是这样。这个事儿有点历史背景。我回去查了一下,伯克希尔·哈撒韦 57 年的历史里,只有两次,伯克希尔被要求出具公平意见函。这两次要求出具公平意见函是完全合理的,因为第一次涉及多元化零售公司,那是我投资的一家公司,这两家都起源于我们的合伙公司,但其中一家的股东群体和伯克希尔的另一群股东不同,两家公司想要合并,所以是两家公司合并,而我又是其中最大的受益方。其实不该由我来决定换股比例,即使我参与最多。但我对其中一家的持股略多于另一家。所以不管怎样,这次需要一份公平意见函。在伯克希尔历史上,这种情况只出现过这两次。于是自然去找查理,我说,“查理,我们确实需要”——其实查理比我更清楚,他说:“这种情况下我们需要一份公平意见函。”我说:“我知道什么算公平,你知道什么算公平,桑迪也知道他自己认为的公平。”如果我们三个人拥有这家公司,十分钟之内我们就能谈出一个我们三人都觉得公平的方案。但因为涉及公众股东之类的,就不能这么搞了。第一次是在 1978 年 11 月 27 日。我基本上告诉股东们,我个人相信多元化零售公司和伯克希尔的股东都会从合并中受益,但我只会投票支持合并,前提是两家公司各自的其他股东投票支持的大多数股份都如此决定,这样没问题。我承诺让股东们自己判断这是否公平。但除此之外,我们还需要找一家大名鼎鼎的投资银行来出具公平意见函。于是我对查理说:“你知道,这些东西要花一两百万美元,”他们随便找个上周刚招来的人,写个像样的东西,然后就送来一两百万美元的账单。他们其实什么都没做,对两家公司一无所知,有一百万件事他们根本不知道,但他们就要写出一份意见书来。而我们又需要这份意见。我说:“那我该怎么办?”我带着这类问题去找查理。查理说:“沃伦,这事很简单。”他说:“挑出十家著名的投资银行,然后照我说的做。”(笑)于是我说:“好,查理,我找来这十家之后呢?”他说:“把它们排好,从 1 到 10。然后打电话给名单上排第一的人,告诉他你愿意付 6 万美元请他出具一份公平意见函。你要知道,这个价格相当侮辱人,他接这个活也很荒唐,因为这会影响到他以后从别人那儿得到的报价——他们回头一看会说:‘巴菲特才付了 6 万美元,我凭什么付 200 万?’”他说:“你就告诉他们,这就是你出的价。如果他们觉得受了侮辱——他们很可能就该觉得受侮辱——那你就去找第二家,开同样的条件,一直往下试,直到试到第十家。如果试到第十家还没人接,你回头跟之前的人说,‘呃,我出 8 万美元’,然后再从头往下试,以此类推。”好吧,(笑声)于是我挑了十家,排第一的是杰克·沙德。杰克·沙德是汤姆·墨菲的朋友,也是比尔·鲁安的朋友,他当时在掌管 E.F. Hutton。他是一位非常非常非常成功的投资银行家。我没其他人那么了解他,但通过朋友认识他。于是,我打电话给他,我说:“杰克,我有个疯狂的请求。”他说:“只是因为大家都很钦佩你,我的朋友也是你的朋友,”诸如此类,E.F. Hutton 也很有声望。我说:“我要问你一件事,这事完全违背你的利益,我完全理解你可能会说‘你打这个电话真是白痴’,然后挂断电话。”但我说:“杰克,我们的程序是这样。”我向他描述了这套程序:他是第一个被找的人,如果他拒绝,我就去找 Paine Webber,然后下一个,(听不清)。“我有这十个人。如果一个都没答应,我会再回头找你,出 7 万 5 千美元,然后继续这么试,直到有人答应为止。”我说:“杰克,你是第一个电话,6 万美元。你要是接了这个活,会搞乱你的生意,因为以后每个客户都会说:‘你给多元化零售和伯克希尔做才 6 万美元,我们凭什么付你 200 万?’”杰克说:“别担心,沃伦。(笑)我能搞定。”他说:“我们接了。”于是我们为其中一方拿到了一份公平意见函。然后我下一个电话打给 Paine Webber,讲了同样的故事。我说:“E.F. Hutton 蠢得接了这单,才 6 万美元。”你知道,“我真搞不懂他们为什么接,这简直是在毁自己的名声。”然后 Paine Webber 说:“我们愿意为另一方也接这个 6 万美元的活。”(笑声)于是我们有了一个描述整个过程的文件。
WARREN BUFFETTListen, I had brought one thing I just couldn't resist. I was hoping I'd get a question, so I'll ask it myself. (Laughter) I was hoping to get a question that how could some guy be so idiotic as to propose a price of $848.02 or whatever it was, or is, for Alleghany Corp? I mean, isn't that getting a little scientific, you know? (Laughs) And, of course, I did provide, when I made the offer, that it be $850, less whatever was paid to whatever investment banker they wanted to select, Alleghany in this case, and they're bound to have to do it because Delaware law is developed in such a way that the directors are protected if they get expert opinions, all that sort of thing. So, I don't fault anybody in the system. But I just thought it might be useful, actually, maybe to Delaware judges someday, Delaware statute makers, maybe people that are writing papers, who knows. But I suggested that we just, since I'm willing to pay $850 a share for the place as is, you know, if the advisory fees are $10 million or $40 million, that it makes a difference to someone. And it's always made a difference to us as the buyer, but that's just the way the game was. Well, there's a little history to that. And I went back and there's been twice, and nobody's ever paid any attention to this, but there's been twice in the history of Berkshire Hathaway, 57 years, twice that Berkshire was required to get a fairness opinion. And it was perfectly logical that we be required to get a fairness opinion in those two cases, because in one case Diversified Retailing, which was a company I was invested in, in both of them that came out of our partnership, but one had a group of shareholders that were different than the other group of shareholders at Berkshire, and the two wanted to merge, so you have two companies, with me being the biggest beneficiary between. And it really wasn't up to me to determine the ratio, I mean, even though I am the most involved. But I had a little more of one company than the other. So anyway, a fairness in opinion was required. And this has only been twice in the history of Berkshire that one was required. So naturally I went to Charlie, and I said, "Charlie," you know, "We do have," I mean, Charlie told me, he knew it better than I did, "We need a fairness opinion in this case." And I said, you know, "I know what's fair, you know what's fair, Sandy knows what he thinks is fair." If the three of us owned it, in ten minutes we could've worked out a deal that all three of us regarded as fair. But because there were public shareholders and everything, it wasn't right to do it that way. And the first one, we have two of these, but the first one was November 27th, 1978. And I told the shareholders, essentially, that my personal belief is that both Diversified and Berkshire shareholders will benefit from the merger, but I will vote for the merger only if a majority of the shares, which are voted by other shareholders of each company, are voted to support, which was fine. I committed myself, you know, to let the people decide whether this was fair. But on top of that, we needed to get a fairness opinion from an investment bank with a big name and everything. And so I said to Charlie, "You know, these things are going for $1 million or $2 million," where they get some guy that they hired last week and he writes up a little thing, and then we get a bill for $1 million or $2 million. They really haven't done anything, they don't know either company and, you know, there's a million things they're not going to know about it, but they're going to write an opinion. And we need the opinion. I said, "So what do I do?" And I go to Charlie with these kind of problems. And Charlie said, "Warren, it's very simple." He said, "Pick out ten prestigious investment banks and do exactly what I say." (Laughs) So, "OK Charlie, what do I do when I get these ten?" And he says, "Well, put them in order, one through ten." And he said, "Call the guy at the top of the list and tell him you'll pay him $60,000 for doing a fairness opinion. And you know that it's an insulting price and it's ridiculous for him to do it because it'll affect what he can get from other people down the line that will look back and say, 'Well, Buffett only paid $60,000, why should I pay $2 million?'" And he says, "Just tell them that that's what you'll pay. And if they're insulted by it, which they probably should be, that you'll go to number two and offer them the same deal, and you'll just keep going down till you get to number ten. And if you don't have anybody by number ten, you've told the other people, you'll come back to number one again and you'll say, 'Well, I'll pay $80,000,' and then you'll go down the list and example." Well, (Laughter) so I picked ten names out and number one name was Jack Shad. And Jack Shad was a friend of Tom Murphy's, he was a friend of Bill Ruane's, and he was running E.F. Hutton. And he was a very, very, very successful investment banker. I didn't know him as well as the others, but I'd met him through my friends. So, I called him up and I said, "Jack," I said, "I've got this crazy request." And he says, "Only because everybody admires you so much and my friends are your friends," and blah, blah, blah, and E.F. Hutton is so well-regarded. I said, "I'm going to ask you something that is totally against your interest, and I fully understand the fact that you're going to say, 'You're an idiot to call me on this,' and slam down the phone." But I said, "Jack, here's our procedure." And I described this procedure that he gets called first, and if he turns it down then I go to Paine Webber, and then I go to, and (UNINTEL). And I tell him, "There's these ten people. And if we don't get any yeses, I'm going to come back to you again and I'll offer you $75,000, and we'll do the same thing till somebody says yes." And I said, "Jack, you know, but you are the first call, so $60,000 and it's going to screw up your business if you do this, because every client you get in the future is going to say, 'Well, you did it for Diversified Retailing and Berkshire, and why in the world should we pay you $2 million when he paid you $60,000?'" And Jack said, "Don't worry about it Warren. (Laughs) I can take care of that." He says, "We're in." And so we got a fairness opinion written for one side. And now the next call I made was to Paine Webber, and I gave them the same story. And I said, "E.F. Hutton was dumb enough to take the one side for $60,000." You know, "I don't know why the hell they're doing it, they're destroying their reputation and all that." And Paine Webber said, "We'll take the other side for $60,000." (Laughter) So we have a thing that describes the whole process.
查理·芒格他们派了个……(听不清)他们派了个和气的酒鬼过来,反正总得给那人找点事做。结果呢,(笑声)他们各自收了我们 6 万美元,我们也付了。6 万美元到手的就是这个。
CHARLIE MUNGERThey got (UNINTEL). They sent out an amiable alcoholic that they had to do something with. Well, what they did (Laughter) was they each billed us for $60,000 and we paid it. That's what you get for $60,000.
沃伦·巴菲特不,不,不。(笑声)我们拿到的东西跟别人花大钱拿到的一样,查理。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, no, no. (Laughter) We got the same thing everybody else got, Charlie.
查理·芒格对,我知道。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, I know.
沃伦·巴菲特当然,杰克·沙德,那是在 1978 年,后来他被任命为美国证券交易委员会(SEC)主席(笑),任期七年。我的意思是,杰克就是喜欢做生意。而且事实证明,这事并没有影响他。他们收了我们 6 万美元,然后下一周转头就向其他客户收了 200 万美元。这全是游戏币。所以后来到蓝筹印花公司(Blue Chip Stamps)时,我们又干了同样的事,四五年后我们再次面临类似的利益冲突。我们还是找回同两个人。那时候已经发生了不少通货膨胀之类的,所以我们出价 11 万美元。那份招股说明书我还留着。他们两个都说:“把材料寄过来就行,别担心我们其他客户,我们会编个说法跟他们解释。”诸如此类。我只是觉得,在某个时候让人们意识到这不是游戏币,是件有趣的事。是有人在付这笔钱。这就是一场游戏。然而,这就是在特拉华州能过关的做法,律师们会向董事们解释,只要按某种方式行事,他们就不会被起诉。所以,我就觉得,总得有人在某个时候(笑)把这件事的真实情况点出来。我们就是这么做的。这可能会跟以往我们那些教育世人认清金融现实及其种种运作的努力一样,无疾而终——比如为什么教你儿子去当投行家比当电工更好之类的。但谁让你摊上一个古怪的董事长呢,这就是他的所作所为。(笑)查理,你对整件事怎么看?这最初可是你的主意。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd, of course, Jack Shad, this was 1978, he was appointed chairman of the SEC (Laughs) for seven years. I mean, but Jack liked to do business. And it was true, it didn't hurt him. They paid us $60,000 and then they went back and charged somebody else $2 million, you know, the next week. And it's all play money. And so we did the same thing when we got to Blue Chip Stamps, where we were similarly conflicted four or five years later. We went back to the same two guys. And there had been a lot of inflation and everything like that. So we said $110,000 then. I've got the prospectus for that. And both of them said, you know, "Send it in, don't worry about our other clients, we'll figure out some story to tell them," you know, and whatever it may be. But I just thought it would be interesting to, at some point, have people realize that it's not play money. Somebody pays it. And it's a game. And, you know, but it's what passes muster in Delaware, and the directors will have it explained to them by the lawyers that they're not going to get sued if they do it in a certain kind of way. And, you know, so I just decided that somebody at some point ought to (Laughs) point out what actually is happening in this situation. And that's why we did it that way. And, you know, it may go down with our earlier attempts to educate the world on the realities of finance and its various interactions, and why it's better to teach your son to be an investment banker than to be an electrician, you know, or something. But you've got an eccentric chairman and that's what he did. (Laughs) Charlie, how do you feel about this whole matter? It was your idea originally.
查理·芒格嗯,我们是有点古怪。(笑声)但古怪之处也不全是坏事。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we're a little peculiar. (Laughter) And all the peculiarities are not bad.
查理成功拿到一笔保险理赔
Charlie gets an insurance claim paid
沃伦·巴菲特这回做这事之前,我没跟查理商量。但查理曾就几件极为务实的事给过我四个主意,它们确实改变了一切。我觉得你真该跟他们讲讲那家骗子公司的那段经历,(笑)查理。
WARREN BUFFETTI didn't talk to Charlie before I did this this time. But Charlie has given me four ideas together on extremely practical matters, I mean, they just changed everything. I think you really ought to tell them about the experience with the fraud company, (Laughs) Charlie.
查理·芒格讲什么?
CHARLIE MUNGERAbout what?
沃伦·巴菲特就是那次欺诈索赔,你知道的,那家富达(Fidelity)的索赔案,那个家伙,他有一家很知名的保险公司,我们不必点名。你知道,你基本上直接告诉他:“把赌注抬高,让游戏公平。”那是 1960 年代的事了。你还记得吗?
WARREN BUFFETTAbout the fraud claim, you know, the Fidelity claim with the guy, you know, he had the very well-known insurance company that, we don't have to name names. But, you know, when you basically told him, "Just raise the stakes to make the game fair." This was back in the 1960s. Do you remember that?
查理·芒格我不记得了。
CHARLIE MUNGERI don't remember.
沃伦·巴菲特哦,好吧,我可记得。
WARREN BUFFETTOh, well I remember.
查理·芒格好吧,那你讲吧。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, tell it then. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特查理当时有一个很小的业务,他管理自己的基金,还在太平洋海岸证券交易所(Pacific Coast Stock Exchange)拥有一个席位。那家公司叫惠勒-芒格(Wheeler and Munger)。最初叫惠勒-芒格,后来改成了芒格-惠勒,杰克·惠勒说:“嗯,要不了多久就会变成芒格公司了,不过没事。”杰克·惠勒是个很有意思的人,他担任通用汽车等几只股票的专营商。后来有个雇员偷了,我也不知道,大概 1.2 万美元之类的,从公司偷了钱。
WARREN BUFFETTCharlie had this tiny little operation which he ran his fund, also had a seat on the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange. The firm was called Wheeler and Munger. It was called Wheeler and Munger at first, later it changed itself to Munger Wheeler, and Jack Wheeler said, "Well, pretty soon it'll be Munger and Company, but that's OK." Jack Wheeler was a very interesting guy, and he had the specialist position in General Motors and a few things. And some employee stole, like, I don't know, $12,000 or something like that from the firm.
查理·芒格对。嗯,我想起来了,他拿了那些交易单据。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. Well, I remember, he had the trading tickets.
沃伦·巴菲特对。有人偷了点钱,查理的公司——惠勒和芒格(Wheeler and Munger)——按规定必须投过员工忠诚险,还有一大堆防范雇员不诚实这类风险的保险。这家伙显然不老实,也显然偷了钱。于是查理递了大约 1.2 万美元的索赔申请,金额就是损失金额,寄给了这家规模极大、名气极响的保险公司。当然,保险公司拒赔了。他们说,“那人其实不算雇员,这个人根本不存在,你这事儿完全没影儿。”反正就是全套推脱。查理收到回信,他们不打算赔。于是查理给这家保险公司那位大名鼎鼎的掌门人写了封信。他说,“你看,我们有一笔 1.2 万美元的索赔。那家伙偷了钱,我们以为买了保险,就是防员工偷钱,有人偷钱保险公司就该赔我们。”他说,“我们现在处在挺有意思的位置上,你这儿一大帮领薪水的人,他们照常每周或每月领工资,不管怎样,他们只要说一句‘我们不赔’,日子就照过下去了。而我呢,坐在那边,我得花自己的时间,耗在这件事上,为这 1.2 万美元的索赔跟你们公司纠缠不值得,你们还会上诉,”诸如此类的麻烦。所以他写道:“我知道,哪怕只是想一想您可能利用这种不平等的议价地位来拒赔,您都会感到被冒犯。那绝不可能是您的本意。所以,为切实恪守您的行为准则,我建议,我们把这 1.2 万美元的索赔乘以 10,无论输赢,都按 12 万美元来。您要是输了,付我 12 万美元。我要是输了,我付您 12 万美元,这样这事就值得我花功夫了。”(笑声)他把信寄给了董事长,就是写给那个人的。他收到回信,随信寄来了一张 1.2 万美元的支票。(笑声)这教训不错。他还跟我说过另外两招,但那两招太妙了,我现在还不想分享,没准哪天我自己要用。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Some guy steals some money, and Charlie's firm, Wheeler and Munger, was required to have a Fidelity bond and all these things that governed dishonest employees and all of that sort. So this guy's clearly dishonest. He's clearly stolen the money. So Charlie puts in a claim for $12,000 or something like that, whatever the loss was, and sends it to this very big and prestigious insurance company. And, of course, the insurance company denies this claim. They say, you know, "The guy really wasn't employed, he doesn't exist, you don't have a dog," you know, I mean, the whole thing. And Charlie gets this letter back and they're not going to pay the claim. And so Charlie writes a letter to this very well-known big name person that runs the insurance company. And he said, "Look," he said, "We have this $12,000 claim." And he said, "That guy stole the money and we thought we had an insurance policy against people stealing, and paid us if people stole money." And he said, "We're in this very interesting position, because you've got a bunch of people on the payroll, and they're going to get their weekly check or monthly check, whatever they do, so they just say, 'We're not going to pay,' and life goes on. "Whereas I'm sitting here and I've got my time, I've got work on this thing, and it isn't worth the $12,000 for me to fool around with this claim against the company, and they'll appeal it," and all these things. So he said, "I know that you would be offended by the thought that you might be using this inequality of bargaining position to avoid paying the claim. "That never could be your intention. So, what I suggest in order to really live up to your code of behavior is why don't we make the $12,000 claim, we'll just multiply it by ten and call it $120,000 either way. And if you lose, you pay me $120,000. If I lose, I'll pay you $120,000, and now it's worth my while." And (Laughter) he addresses the letter to the chairman and says that to the guy. He gets a $12,000 check by return mail. (Laughter) It's not a bad lesson. He's told me two others, but the tricks are too good. I don't even want to share them now, I may use them myself someday.
为什么巴菲特不愿花 25 美元买下全世界所有比特币
Why Buffett wouldn't buy all the bitcoin for $25
沃伦·巴菲特好,接下来交给贝基。
WARREN BUFFETTOK, let's go to Becky.
贝基·奎克这个话题我们收到很多提问。我问这个,来自拉杰(Raj)的。他问:“你对比特币和/或加密货币的看法,有没有过任何(笑声)一点改变?我自己很纠结,”因为他本人过去两年观点稍有演变,从认为比特币是欺诈和浪费,变成认为比特币处于投机泡沫中,但或许有些用途。
BECKY QUICKWe got a lot of questions on this topic. I'll ask this one that came from Raj. He says, "Have you changed your views on bitcoin and/or cryptocurrency in any (Laughter) respect? I'm conflicted about this," because his own views have slightly evolved during the past two years from bitcoin is a fraud and waste to bitcoin is in a speculative bubble but might have some uses.
沃伦·巴菲特唉,(笑)我本来不该回答跟这话题有关的任何问题,但我还是答吧。你看,各种各样的人在看这个节目,他们做多比特币,没人做空,没人想被别人踩住气管。我不怪他们,我也不喜欢被人踩气管。但我会这么说:假设这间屋子里的人拥有全美所有的农田,你提出卖给我其中 1% 的权益,你说,只要向我们的集体付钱,好吧,比方说 100 亿、200 亿,跟我们开个便宜价,250 亿美元,我今下午就给你开张支票。250 亿美元,我就持有全美所有农田的 1%。如果你告诉我你持有全美所有公寓楼的 1%,你提出卖给我这 1% 的权益,这样我就能持有全美所有公寓楼的 1%,你开个价,比如也是 250 亿美元左右,我也会给你开支票。你看,这很简单。现在,如果你告诉我你拥有全世界所有的比特币,出价 25 美元卖给我,我也不会要,因为我拿来干什么?我终归得想办法卖回给你。我是说,也许不是卖给同一批人,但这东西什么都创造不出来。公寓会生产租金,农田会生产粮食,而如果我手里攥着全世界所有比特币,我就又回到了 15 年前那个可能确有其人也可能纯属虚构的家伙的处境。如果我全拿了,他还能制造点神秘感。但大家都知道我是什么样的人。我是说,所以(笑)一旦我试图脱手,人们就会说:“呃,我凭什么要买你的比特币?你怎么不弄个什么‘巴菲特币’,自己造一个呢?想点别的招儿。反正我不会为这玩意儿付钱给你。”顺便说一句,他们这么说没错。但这恰恰解释了生产性资产与依赖下一个买家比上一个买家出价更高才能获利的东西之间的区别。现在,算总账的话,仔细一看,已经付了不知多少佣金,我是说,有各种虚构却极为真实的成本,已经有人付给了一群为这个游戏提供便利的人。但无论公众中的哪个群体提走了钱,或是哪类持有人提走了钱,都是从另一些人那里来的。我是说,另一些人进了这个房间,他们来回倒腾钱。房间里并没有多出一分钱,不过是换了手,中间可能还夹杂着欺诈、种种成本,还有一堆乱七八糟的事。你吃亏就吃亏在,你忘了那堆数字,或者忘了那个等式。很多事都可以这样玩。我是说,这在历史上反复上演。有些东西有价值,却不生产任何有形的东西。比如,一幅名画,500 年后大概还会有价值。也有可能没有,但如果某位作者确实名头够大,那么几率相当高。会有少数这样的东西。你总能找到愿意付钱的人。如果有人想卖给你一座金字塔之类的东西,然后你向参观的游客收费,你知道,金字塔能存在很长时间,什么东西也不生产,但人们会因为听说过金字塔,觉得去那里很有意思。但说到底,资产要想有价值,就必须给别人提供点什么。而美国只承认一种货币。你可以造出各种各样的东西。我们可以发行伯克希尔币,或者印伯克希尔钞票之类。不过我猜,我们要是管它叫钱,会惹上麻烦。但归根结底,美元才是钱,世界上没有任何理由能让美国政府——它的货币是大家偏爱的——改变。我是说,光这些纸片子,实际上就有略低于 2.3 万亿美元散落在某个地方,相当于美国男女老少每人 7000 美元,尽管大多数可能并不在美国境内。谁知道呢。但这是唯一算钱的东西。任何认为美国会变,会允许伯克希尔钞取代美元的人,你知道,都是脑子不清楚。所以,说了这么多缺陷,它未来一年、五年或十年涨还是跌,我不知道。但有一件事我相当确定:它不会繁殖,什么东西也生产不出来。它有一种魔力,而人们曾经把魔力附着在许多东西上。在华尔街,制造魔力本来就是一个目标,对吧?我们不是保险公司,我们是科技公司。哎,可他们就是保险公司。只不过有那么十几个人筹了很多钱,他们就一句话:“别管我们在卖保险的事。我们是家科技公司。”结果到头来,他们还是在承保,而且之后绝大多数都亏了很多钱。你可以编造出那些很能套别人钱的东西,这也是为什么——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, (Laughs) I shouldn't answer any question on the subject, but I will. You know, there's all kinds of people watching this that are long bitcoin and there's nobody that's short, and nobody wants their windpipe stepped on. And I don't blame them, I don't like people to step on my windpipe. But I would say this, that if the people in this room owned all of the farmland in the United States, and you offered me a 1% interest in it, and you said for a 1% interest in all the farmland in the United States, pay our group, well, let's see ten, 20, pay us this bargain price, $25 billion, I'll write you a check this afternoon, $25 billion, now I own 1% of the farmland. If you tell me you own 1% of the apartment houses in the United States and you offer me a 1% interest, so I'll have a 1% interest in all the apartment houses in the country, and you want whatever it may be for it, call it another $25 billion or something, I'll write you a check. You know, it's very simple. Now, if you told me you owned all of the bitcoin in the world, and you offered it to me for $25, I wouldn't take it, because what would I do with it? I have to sell it back to you one way or another. I mean, maybe not these same people, but it isn't going to do anything. The apartments are going to produce rental, and the farms are going to produce food, and if I've got all the bitcoin I'm back where whatever his name was, who may or may not have existed was, you know, 15 years ago. If I've got it all he could create a mystery about it. But everybody knows what I'm like. I mean, so (Laughs) if I'm trying to get rid of it, you know, people will say, "Well, you know, why should I buy some bitcoin? Why don't you call it Buffett Coin, you know, and make your own or something? Do something. But I'm not going to give you anything for it." And you'd be right, incidentally. But that explains the difference between productive assets and something that depends on the next guy paying you more than the last guy got. Now, net, if you look at it, a lot of commissions have been paid and, I mean, there's all kinds of fictional costs that are very real that somebody has paid to a bunch of people who facilitate this game. But whatever one group of the public has taken out, or one group of owners, has come in from other people. I mean, other people have entered the room and they move money around. But there's no more money in the room, it just changed hands with a lot of maybe fraud and costs involved and, you know, a whole bunch of things. You lose, you know, you forget the numbers or forget the equation. You can do that with a lot of things. I mean, it's been done throughout history. Certain things have value that don't produce something tangible. I mean, you can say a great painting, you know, probably will have some value 500 years from now. It may not, but the odds are pretty good that if it was a big enough name at some point. There will be a few things. I mean, you know, you can find somebody to pay. If somebody wants to sell you a pyramid or something, and you can charge the viewers, you know, it'll be around a long time and it would produce anything, but people will find it interesting to go there, because they've heard about the pyramids. But basically assets, to have value they have to deliver something to somebody. And there's only one currency that's acceptable in the United States. I mean, you can come up with all kinds of things. We can put out Berkshire Coins or, you know, we can put out Berkshire Money or anything like that. But we'd get in trouble, I guess, if we call it money. But in the end, this is money and there's no reason in the world why the United States government, whose currency people prefer. I mean, literally there's just under $2.3 trillion just of these little pieces of paper floating around someplace, $7,000 for every man, woman, and child in the United States, even though most of them probably aren't in the United States. Who knows. But this is the only thing that's money. And anybody that thinks the United States is going to change to where they let Berkshire Money replace theirs, you know, is out of their mind. So anyway, with those few deficiencies, you know, whether it goes up or down in the next year or five years, ten years, I don't know. But the one thing I'm pretty sure of is that it doesn't multiply, it doesn't produce anything. It's got a magic to it and people have attached magics to lots of things. I mean, it's a goal in Wall Street, you know, to create magic, you know? We are not an insurance company, we're a tech company. Well, they're an insurance company. But a dozen people or so have raised a lot of money, they just say, "Just don't pay any attention to the fact that we sell insurance. We are a tech company." Well, in the end they wrote insurance and overwhelmingly they've lost a lot of money since then. You can make up things that work well in getting money from other people and that's why —
查理·芒格我看这事儿的角度略有不同。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERI have a slightly different way of looking at it. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特那我卖点给你。
WARREN BUFFETTI'll sell you some then.
查理·芒格呃,(笑)我这辈子,总想避开那些既愚蠢又邪恶、还让我跟别人一比显得很糟的事。比特币这三样全占。(笑声)第一,它愚蠢,因为它极可能归零。第二,它邪恶,因为它破坏了美联储体系和我们亟需维护其完整性、政府管控和延续的国家货币体系。第三,跟那个中国领导人一比,它让我们显得很蠢。他聪明到在中国禁止比特币,而我们带着我们自诩的全部文明优势——(掌声)——我们比那位中国领导人蠢得多。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, (Laughs) in my life I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison with somebody else. And bitcoin does all three. (Laughter) And in the first place, it's stupid because it's very likely to go to zero. In the second place, it's evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve system and the national currency system, which we desperately need to maintain its integrity and government control and company on. And third, it makes us look foolish compared to the communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China, and with all of our presumed advantages of civilization — (applause) — we are a lot dumber than the communist leader in China.
沃伦·巴菲特没错,等国内 25% 的人因为我们今天这番话而冒火时,请记住,查理是最后一个发言的,而且他说得最——(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, and when 25% of the people of the country get mad because we've said what we said today, just remember Charlie spoke last, and was the most — (Laughter)
日益加剧的部落主义是危险的
Increased tribalism is dangerous
沃伦·巴菲特有件事我确实认为相当重要,但我又不知道能做些什么。我的大致感觉是——虽然没法证明——但我基本上相信,现在人们的行为比长久以来更加部落化。我是说,人总会有党派倾向,总会有宗教信仰,会有各种各样的东西。但这事儿变得很部落。我这么说是有切身体会的,因为我自己就很部落。你看,今天我们是在坦白交代。内布拉斯加橄榄球就很部落。我在电视上看到,我们的内布拉斯加队员,一只脚踏出了界外一英尺,裁判愣是没看到,判了“界内”,然后放了六遍回放,可即使我眼前明明看到他们踩线了,我还是会坚持认为那是“界内”。你看,这就是部落行为。参与其中也很有意思。(笑)但是,当一群人信誓旦旦地说“二加二等于五”,另一群人则说“二加二等于三”,而且你一开口他们就会抛出这些答案时,这就变得非常危险。有趣的是,至少对我来说,部分原因可能是因为我的年龄,但我确实觉得,仅凭记忆,上一次整个国家被认为很部落化,还是我小时候,罗斯福当政的时期:你要么恨罗斯福,要么爱他。我是说,没人在乎阿尔夫·兰登跟他竞选,也没人在乎温德尔·威尔基跟他竞选。他们就只有这些情绪:要么把罗斯福的照片挂在墙上,用罗斯福给孩子取名,要么恨他,觉得他要把国家带向——“哦,第三任期?”还有一大堆各种说法。国家在 30 年代非常非常部落化,但罗斯福的部落更大。而且,在我看来,他们做了一些很棒的事。但我凑巧在一个我们不先说点罗斯福的坏话就不给饭后甜点的家庭里长大。我是说,相信我,你要是吃不上甜点,肯定得说罗斯福的坏话。(笑)所以从小就这么训练你,然后各种招数都来了。因此,我觉得我见过一个不那么部落化的时期,比如艾森豪威尔跟史蒂文森竞选之类的时期。我是说,你看,人们会有党派行为,也总会有一定程度的“部落主义”。但我认为,不管怎样,当人们变得部落化时,对整个社会来说都不是什么好趋势。(掌声)查理,你是哪个部落的成员?(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTThe one development that I really do think is actually important, but I don't know any way to do anything about it, but my general sense, and there's no way to prove it, but I essentially believe people are now behaving somewhat more tribal than they have for a long time. And, I mean, people are always going to be partisan, and they're going to have religious beliefs, they're going to have all kinds of things. But it gets pretty tribal. And I speak from experience because I've been tribal. And, you know, we're confessing today, and, you know, Nebraska football is tribal. And when I watch a television set, and I see our guy, Nebraska, step out of bounds by a foot, but somehow the ref misses it and calls it "in," and then they show six replays, I'll continue to believe it was "in" even though it's right in front of my eyes that they stepped out. You know, that's tribal behavior. And it's fun. I mean, (Laughs) to participate in. But it can get very dangerous when one group of people say, "Two plus two is five," and the other say, "Two plus two is three," you know, and they're going to give you those answers if you call them. And the interesting thing is, to me at least, and partly because of my age. But I actually think, just from memory, that the last time that the country was seen as tribal was actually when I was a kid and Roosevelt was in: Either you hated Roosevelt or you loved him. I mean, nobody cared about the fact Alf Landon was running, or Wendell Wilkie was running against him. They just had these feelings: They either had Roosevelt's picture on the wall, and named their kids after Roosevelt, or they hated him and they thought he was going to, you know, "Oh, a third term?" and, you know, a million things. And the country was very, very tribal in the '30s, but Roosevelt's tribe was bigger. And, in my opinion, they did some wonderful things. But I happened to grow up in a household where we didn't get served dessert until we said something nasty about Roosevelt. I mean, and, believe me, if you don't get dessert, you're going to say something nasty about Roosevelt. (Laughs) And so you trained them young, and did, you know, all kinds of things. And so, I think I've seen a period that wasn't that way, when Eisenhower was running against Stevenson, or whatever it might be. I mean, you know, people had a partisan behavior, and they had a certain amount of "tribal" always. But I don't think it's a good development for society generally when people get tribal, regardless. (Applause) Charlie, what tribes are you a member of? (Laughs)
查理·芒格嗯,在加州,我们的议会选区划分完全是杰利蝾螈,所以没人能被选民赶下台。这样一来,议会里只剩下狂热的右派和狂热的左派。他们每隔十年碰一次头,议会里通常有六个温和派没被清掉,于是他们就重新划分所有选区,把温和派赶出去,因为两边都容不下他们。这,就是现在加州政府的运作方式。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, in California, we have a legislature which is completely jerrymandered so nobody can ever be thrown out by the voters. And, therefore, the only people in the legislature are insane rightist and insane leftists. And they get together every ten years, and there's usually six moderates somewhere in the legislature, and so they re-jigger all the districts to throw them out, because neither part can stand them. Now, that is government in California. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特是吗?那你住在那种地方,还得回去?(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah? And you live there and you have to go back? (Laughs)
查理·芒格是,是。
CHARLIE MUNGERYes, yes.
沃伦·巴菲特我肯定你会——
WARREN BUFFETTI'm sure you'll —
查理·芒格比起住在俄罗斯,我还是更喜欢住在那儿。(笑声)(掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd I prefer living there to living in Russia. (Laughter) (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特好了。我们还有谁没得罪过?(掌声)那句话是谁说的来着,莱尼·布鲁斯,他常说:“还有谁是我忘了冒犯的?”
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Who haven't we gotten in trouble with yet? (Applause) Who was it, Lennie Bruce, that used to say, "Is there anyone I've forgotten to offend?"
巴菲特最喜欢的老板
Buffett's favorite boss
沃伦·巴菲特对,是第 10 区,我记得。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Section 10, I believe.
萨赫巴菲特先生、芒格先生,你们好。我叫萨赫,来自新泽西,现在是罗格斯大学的大一新生。你们很早就知道自己想做投资者,而且显然做得极为出色。对于还在努力摸索自己该专注什么、寻找自己使命的人,你们有什么建议?
SAHEJHello, Mr. Buffet and Mr. Munger. My name is Sahej, I am from New Jersey. And I'm currently a freshman at Rutgers University. You knew quite early on that you wanted to be investors, and you've obviously been amazing at it. What advice would you have for someone who's still trying to figure out what they want to focus on and find their calling?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这是个很有意思的问题。因为我非常非常幸运。我之所以能找到自己想做的事,纯粹是因为我爸碰巧干着一份他并不感兴趣的生意,但那里放着些书。我极其崇拜我爸,就常去他那儿看书,结果那些书让我入了迷。你看,我很庆幸他不是职业拳击手之类的,不然我恐怕牙都掉光了,更别提别的了。(笑)这纯属偶然,完完全全是偶然。但我确实觉得,当你看到它的那一刻,你会知道就是它。但这不代表你就能去做了。我会跟学生们说,就像我在年报里写的那样:“找到你热爱做的事。”你一生中大部分时间都在做这件事,你何必非要一辈子跟你不喜欢的人共事呢?除非迫不得已,有时确实会这样。去为你最钦佩的人工作吧。我以前在斯坦福做过一次演讲。记得事后好像有个人,大概两天后,就跑到了汤姆·墨菲的办公室,那个人做对了。当然,我自己从学校毕业后就是这么做的。我一心想为本杰明·格雷厄姆工作,根本不在乎薪水多少,这完全不是问题——我只知道那就是我想做的。随后我缠了他三年,他终于雇了我。再后来,我找到了一个比本更让我心甘情愿为之效力的人,那人恰好就是我自己。(笑声)打那以后,我就一直在为自己打工了。但我这辈子前前后后有过大概四个老板。我去《林肯日报》干过,当时的那位老板,名字我一下子想不起来了,他是个极好的人。还有奥马哈这边 J.C. Penney 的库珀史密斯,他们都是相当了不起的人。不过,我还是更喜欢给自己当老板。当然,查理和我都给我爷爷打过工,只是我们俩都觉得那份工作没那么有意思。我不记得了,查理,你当年为什么决定去我爷爷的店里干活来着?查理是 1940 年在那儿工作的,我——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, that is a very interesting question. Because I was very, very lucky. In that I found what I wanted to do because my dad happened to be in a business that he wasn't interested in, but they had some books down there, and I loved my dad, and I'd go down and read the books and they interested me. And, you know, I'm glad he wasn't a professional boxer or something, or, you know, I wouldn't have any teeth left or anything else. (Laughs) It was accident, just totally accident, but I do think you know it when you see it. And it doesn't mean you can follow. I would tell the students, as I wrote in the report, I mean, you know, "Find out what you love doing." I mean, you spend most of your life doing it, and why in the world would you want to be around for a lifetime working with people that you didn't like? Unless you had to, which sometimes happens. Just work for whomever you admire the most. I gave a talk at Stanford one time. And somebody showed up at Tom Murphy's office, I think, a couple of days later. That person was right. And, of course, it's what I did when I got out of school. I wanted to work for Ben Graham. I mean, I didn't care what I got paid, it didn't make any di — you know, I just knew that that's what I wanted to do. And then I pestered him for three years and he finally hired me. And then I found somebody else that I'd even rather work for than Ben, who happened to be myself. (Laughter) And so I've been working for myself ever since. But I had about four bosses in my life. You know, I went down to The Lincoln Journal. Name slips my mind at the moment, he was a wonderful boss. And it was Coopersmith at J.C. Penney's here in Omaha, and they all were wonderful people. But I still preferred working for myself. And, of course, Charlie and I both worked for my grandfather, and we just didn't find it that interesting. I don't remember, why'd you ever decide to go to work at the store, Charlie? Charlie worked there in 1940, I worked —
查理·芒格嗯,我纯属为了体验工作的感觉,我不缺那个钱。我爸给我的零花钱很充裕,我自己另外还有一摊私人买卖。所以,我去你家的杂货店干活,基本上是图个好玩。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I worked just for the experience of working, I didn't need the money. My father gave me an ample allowance and I also had a private business. So, I was kind of working as a lark in your grocery store.
沃伦·巴菲特一天干 12 个小时?
WARREN BUFFETTTwelve hours a day?
查理·芒格对。
CHARLIE MUNGERYes.
沃伦·巴菲特干……图个好玩?
WARREN BUFFETTAt — for a lark?
查理·芒格对,图个好玩,没错。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, as a lark, yes.
沃伦·巴菲特现在回头看,你觉得那段经历算是时间上的好投资吗?(笑)我是说,现在回头看?
WARREN BUFFETTDo you consider that a good investment of your time? (Laughs) I mean, just looking back on it?
查理·芒格嗯,我之前没干过这个,想稍微体验一下。而且我也没打算干太久。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I'd never done it before, and I wanted to have a little of that experience. And I wasn't going to do it very long.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯。(笑声)我工作可绝对不是为了这个原因。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTHmm. (Laughter) That sure as hell wasn't the reason I worked. (Laughs)
查理·芒格嗯——是这样,我可以给那位年轻女士一个建议。想清楚你不擅长什么,然后全都避开。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell — you know, I could give that young lady the advice. Figure out what you're bad at and avoid all of it.
沃伦·巴菲特没错。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Laughter)
查理·芒格我和沃伦就是这么找到我们的行当的。
CHARLIE MUNGERThat's the way Warren and I found our profession.
沃伦·巴菲特一点不假。你知道,我们——
WARREN BUFFETTAbsolutely. You know, we —
查理·芒格我们在所有其他方面都碰了壁。
CHARLIE MUNGERWe failed at everything else.
沃伦·巴菲特我们什么都试过,直到找到理想的老板:我们自己。(笑)你明白吗?那是我们真心欣赏的一种状态。
WARREN BUFFETTWe worked at everything till we found the ideal employers: ourselves. (Laughs) You know? And that was something we really admired.
查理·芒格我知道:沃伦说过,“要为你钦佩的人工作。”(笑声)他唯一认识的钦佩对象,就是每天早上他刮胡子时看到的那位。
CHARLIE MUNGERI know: Warren said, "Work for somebody you admire." (Laughter) The only one he knew was the one he was shaving.
沃伦·巴菲特我猜他当时是给自己当老板。
WARREN BUFFETTI think he was self-employed.
查理·芒格因为他照镜子的时候,我跟他在做同一件事——刮胡子。
CHARLIE MUNGERBecause he and I were shaving.
沃伦·巴菲特不过这建议不赖。确实不赖。我是说,前提是得有的选。查理 40 年代不管哪年去服了兵役,那会儿他有的选吗——他没法选择替谁工作。而且,就我记忆所及,你当时那个上司,结果也不太妙吧(笑),查理,对吧?
WARREN BUFFETTBut it isn't bad advice. It isn't bad advice. I mean, if they've got an option. I mean, Charlie went into the service in whatever year it was, in the '40s, and he didn't really have a choice of who he was going to work for. And, as I remember, it didn't really work out that well (Laughs) who you worked for, Charlie, did it?
查理·芒格嗯——你要是停下来琢磨琢磨,有两样事情我们俩谁都没做成过:第一,我们从未在哪件我们不感兴趣的事上成功过,对吧?
CHARLIE MUNGERWell — if you stop to think about it, there are two things that neither one of us has ever succeeded at: One, we've never succeeded at anything that didn't interest us, right?
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTRight.
查理·芒格第二,我们也从未在哪件我们没什么天分、又确实很难的事情上成功过。
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd we've never succeeded at anything that was really hard where we didn't have much aptitude for it.
沃伦·巴菲特对。而且我们这 60 年来一直在做我们喜欢做的事。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. And we've been doing whatever we pleased for 60 years.
查理·芒格对,没错。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, we did.
沃伦·巴菲特你知道,我们以自己的方式找乐子,而且——
WARREN BUFFETTAnd, you know, we have fun in our way, and —
查理·芒格我只是觉得很惊讶。你会觉得,如果你够聪明,你就能把不感兴趣的事也做好。但你不能。
CHARLIE MUNGERI'm just amazed. You'd think, if you're smart, you could do things that don't interest you well. But you can't.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我自己就有很多例子。但我们这儿就不展开了。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I've certainly got a lot of examples in my own case. But we won't get into them here.
芒格喜欢美国坐拥大量石油储备
Munger likes having big U.S. oil reserves
沃伦·巴菲特我们问贝基吧。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd we will go to Becky.
贝基·奎克这个问题来自俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨的福斯特·泰勒。他说他最近听了伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2008 年股东大会,你们当时谈到了全球石油产量。你们当时说,如果全球石油产量在 25 年内跌破 8500 万桶,会有重大影响。现在已经过了 14 年,全球石油产量似乎只有 7900 万桶。同时,我们还在消耗战略石油储备。美国是否应该采取不同的做法?如果我们不更加主动,未来十年您是否看到这些行动的后果?
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Foster Taylor, in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He said he recently listened to the Berkshire Hathaway 2008 Annual Meeting, where you talked about global oil production. At the time you talked about major ramifications if global oil production went below 85 million barrels in 25 years. We are at the 14-year mark, and global oil production looks to be 79 million barrels. At the same time, we're depleting our strategic oil reserves. Should the United States be doing something differently, and do you see consequences to these actions in the next ten years if we do not become more proactive?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,查理是石油方面的专家。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, Charlie's the expert on oil.
查理·芒格嗯,但是——(笑)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, but — (Laughs)
沃伦·巴菲特只是跟我比。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTOnly compared to me. (Laughter)
查理·芒格塞缪尔·约翰逊说过,“很难分清虱子和跳蚤谁更高贵。” 你也很难说我们俩谁在石油方面更不称职。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERSamuel Johnson said, "It's hard to determine the order of precedency between a louse and a flea." And it's hard to tell which of us is more incompetent in oil. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我们还在比呢。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTWe're still competing. (Laughs)
查理·芒格我对这个问题有不同看法。我喜欢国家坐拥大量石油储备。如果我是美国的仁慈独裁者,我会把大部分石油留在地下,高兴地按阿拉伯人要的价钱买他们的油,省着自己的。我认为未来 200 年石油会是极其珍贵的东西。没人跟我想法一样,所以我不在乎,我就是觉得他们都错了。
CHARLIE MUNGERI have a different view on this subject. I like having big reserves of oil. If I were running the benevolent despot of the United States, I would just leave most of the oil we have here, and I'd pay whatever the Arabs charge for their oil and I'd pay it cheerfully and conserve my own. I think it's going to be very precious stuff over the next 200 years. And nobody else has my view, so it doesn't bother me, I just think they're all wrong.
沃伦·巴菲特对。(笑声)嗯——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Laughter) Well —
查理·芒格但不管怎样,这不是主流观点。
CHARLIE MUNGERBut at any rate, that is not the normal view.
沃伦·巴菲特我们自己的看法也相当灵活。我是说,实际上,联邦政府正把好几十亿桶这种东西注入经济体系。而且,你知道吗,就在没多久以前,谁开采一桶石油,都可能被当成做了什么可怕的事。我是说,你试试明天起不用每天 1100 万桶石油,看看到底会发生什么。这件事,每个人都有自己的感受,而且反应极快。你知道,这牵扯到一大堆不同圈子的看法,你只要对此发表任何意见,都会得罪很多人。但归根结底,我认为,至少眼下,大多数人觉得,这个国家有点石油,总比没有好。而且我们正在大量消耗石油。如果试图在三五年内完成转型,没人知道会发生什么,但在我看来,能顺利完成的概率极低。查理,你何不说几句更劲爆的,这样得罪人最多的就是你了?(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTAnd we've been pretty flexible on our own view. I mean, actually, the Federal Government is serving up however many billion barrels of the stuff into the economy. And, you know, it wasn't that long ago that, you know, the idea that anybody produced a barrel of oil was somehow something terrible. I mean, just try doing without 11 million barrels a day and see what happens tomorrow. It is something that everybody has a feeling on, immediately. And, you know, this gets into a whole bunch of different tribes of sorts, and you offend an awful lot of people if you talk in any way about it. But, in the end I think, at the moment at least, most people feel that it's nicer to have some oil in this country than not have it. And we're using a lot of it. And if we were to try and change over, in three years, or five years, nobody knows what would happen, but the odds that it would work well are extremely low, it seems to me. Charlie, why don't you say something more dramatic so you'll be the one that offended the most people? (Laughter)
查理·芒格嗯,你要是静下来想想,石油行业如今被妖魔化得这么厉害,可我简直想不出还有哪个行业比它更有用,我不了解那些盲目开探井的人(wildcatters),但我认识的石油工程师,还有那些设计炼油厂和管道的人,他们确实是我认识的最优秀、最可靠的一群人。而且我看美国这个石油供应问题,没什么大不了的(掌声)。所以,我骨子里是喜欢标准石油公司的。我并没有那种感觉,好像那是个邪恶、疯狂的地方。我倒希望世界其他地方也能像我们的大型石油公司一样运转得这么好。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, if you stop to think about it, the oil industry is being so vilified now, I can hardly think of a more useful industry, and I don't know about wildcatters, but certainly the petroleum engineers I know, and the people who design our oil refineries, and pipelines, are some of the finest and most reliable people I know. And I see very little trouble (Applause) with the oil supply thing in the United States. So I'm basically in love with Standard Oil. And I don't have this feeling that it's an evil, crazy place. I wish the rest of the world worked as well as our big oil companies.
决定是否回购伯克希尔股票并没那么难
Deciding whether to buy back Berkshire stock isn't that hard
沃伦·巴菲特好了,我们还是转到第 11 区吧。(笑)我不确定第 11 区那边连线好了没有?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we better move on to station 11. (Laughs) I'm not sure whether station 11 is operative?
格伦·唐我们在这儿。从 overflow 厅问好。我叫格伦·唐,是纽约的股东。这是我参加的第 20 次伯克希尔股东大会,很高兴我们终于又能亲临现场了。这些年你们给我们带来了巨大的快乐,就我个人而言,你们的智慧不仅让我成为更好的投资者,更重要的是,让我成为更好、更快乐的人。能向你们道谢是我的荣幸和荣耀。所以,沃伦,查理,谢谢你们。(掌声)
GLEN TONGUEWell, we're here. Greetings from the Overflow Room. My name is Glen Tongue, I'm a shareholder from New York. This is my 20th Berkshire Annual Meeting, and I'm delighted that we're able to, once again, be here in person. You two have brought tremendous joy to all of us through the years, and, speaking personally, your wisdom has not only made me a better investor, but, more importantly, a better, happier person. It's a privilege and honor to thank you. So, Warren and Charlie, thank you. (Applause)
查理·芒格嗯,这才是我爱听的问题。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, that's my kind of a question.
沃伦·巴菲特对,这——这就挺好。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, that — that's fine.
查理·芒格以后多来点这样的。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERLet's have more of those. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特对,或者你可以把刚才的话再说一遍。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, or you can say it again. (Laughs)
查理·芒格也许你可以把它唱出来。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERMaybe you could sing it. (Laughter)
格伦·唐也许我应该见好就收了。
GLEN TONGUEMaybe I should quit at this point.
沃伦·巴菲特格伦,请继续吧。
WARREN BUFFETTGlen go to it.
格伦·唐我的问题和股票回购有关。自从两年前你们开始较大规模地回购伯克希尔股票以来,每月回购金额介于 10 亿美元到 30 亿美元之间。据我估算,当伯克希尔股价相对内在价值折让 20% 左右时,每月回购金额约为 30 亿美元;折让 10% 左右时,每月约为 20 亿美元;折让在 0 到 10% 之间时,每月约为 10 亿美元。我的理解大致正确吗?还有其他因素会影响回购的节奏吗?
GLEN TONGUEMy question relates to share repurchases. Since you started buying back Berkshire shares, in size two years ago, the repurchases have ranged between $1 billion and $3 billion per month. By my estimate, it appears that the buyback rate is about $3 billion per month when Berkshire's trading at a 20% or so discount to intrinsic value, $2 billion per month at about a 10% discount, and a billion per month at a zero to 10% value. Do I have that approximately right? And do any other factors influence the rate of share repurchases?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,刚才你的介绍那么客气,我不得不说(笑)你其实搞错了。要是有人在过去三四五个月的某个时点,愿意按某个价格卖给我们价值 500 亿美元的股票,我们肯定会买。就是这么简单。而且,我前面也提到过,四月份我们一股都没买。回购这件事,当我们能做的时候,而且我们觉得——至少我们认为概率非常高的时候——我们当然相信自己的评估和投资判断,如果我们觉得这样做能让留下来的股东境况更好,我们就会回购。否则,我们就不回购。如果我们可以在买入中意的好企业和回购股票之间做选择——限制因素是手头有多少钱——那我们更愿意买企业。所以,我们不会半夜不睡觉去琢磨什么公式之类的东西。但如果我们觉得眼下不是合适的时机,我们就绝不会做。假设我们有个柠檬水摊,我、查理还有你三人合伙,这个摊子每周能赚个一块钱左右,然后我们分了。接着你说你想退出。你报个价,如果我们手头有闲钱,我们就把你买断。要是我们觉得价格不合适,就不买。我们的感觉就是这样的。但我们确实有义务去做我们认为明智的事,而且绝对不能有任何风险——绝对不能有在任何我们能预见的情况下引发财务问题的风险,除非可能是核战争那种情况,你懂的,那种我们会做。但它永远不可能成为那么大一个因素。查理,我记得前几天你提到过亨利·辛格尔顿。我想他最终回购了公司 89% 的股份。他早年股价高估的时候疯了一样地卖股票,或者说发行股票,然后又在股价低估时回购回来。但关键在于,这得让人们觉得你这么做是错的,这样他才能买到海量的股份。还有其他一些公司也回购了大量股份,但伯克希尔没机会这么做。原因很简单,我们的股东太明智了。要是我们有那么一群股东,他们手里全拿着两天期的看跌期权,那我们能在很短时间内就把整个公司买回来。但这个概念评估起来太简单了。我是说,我买的第二支股票——第一支是城市服务优先股——第二支是一家叫“得克萨斯太平洋土地信托”的公司。这家公司源自 1880 年左右得克萨斯-太平洋铁路的破产清算。他们当时有三百多万英亩土地,拥有矿产、地表和所有权益。但在 1880 年代,那都是些烂地。但他们公司章程里规定,可以用卖地所得的收益每年买入自己的股票。我那时十三四岁,坐在那儿算:“要是我能活到一百岁,我就能把整个公司都买下来。”嗯,我现在还没活到一百岁,而且我也没真把整个公司买下来。所以,这两种计算到目前为止都不完美。但这确实是一家了不起的公司,简直了不起。因为他们每年靠放牧费可能也就收 6000 美元,那时候可是有三百多万英亩地呢。然后他们不断发现石油,越来越多的石油。后来公司形式也变了,各种事情都发生了,但他们还是一周又一周地买自己的股票。我坐在那儿算,要多久才能把整个公司买下来。显然我的计算有些地方不对(笑),因为事情不是那样发展的。但有一件事对我来说很明显:如果他们拥有南边那三百万英亩地,等一切尘埃落定,他们还能保留矿产权益和其他一切——这些他们一直做着——用很低的价格做这件事,对任何一个长期持有的人都是好事。而对长期持有的人来说,结果也确实极好。但没人知道他们会发现那么多石油,也没人知道埃尔帕索市最终会扩张到那么远,让那些离埃尔帕索比较近的地表也变得值钱。再往西走两百英里才找得到下一个城镇,但那(笑)是另一个问题了。所以,有些东西就这么简单,你知道吗?但有些人为了拿博士学位什么的,会写出几百页纸,里面塞满希腊字母和诸如此类的东西。而归根到底,你要么是在以有吸引力的价格买断你的合伙人,要么不是。如果你手头有闲钱,价格又有吸引力,又没有更好的机会,那为什么不干呢?干了肯定能获得更好的结果。如果有更明智的事,那就不干。如果从绝对意义上讲不明智,那也不干。查理,你有什么要补充的吗?1943 年你在干什么?(笑)你在服役吗?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, after you were so nice in your introduction, I have to say that (Laughs) you're actually wrong in that. If somebody had offered us $50 billion worth of stock at a certain point in the last three or four, five months, we'd have taken it. You know, it's that simple. And, as I mentioned earlier, we haven't bought any stock in April. It's something that, when we can do it, and we know, at least we think the probabilities are very high, we certainly believe it in terms of our own evaluation and our own investment, if we think that we're improving things for the remaining shareholder, we'll buy it back. And if we don't, we don't buy it back. And if we have the choice of buying businesses that we like, or buying back stock — the controlling factor's how much money we have, we'd rather buy businesses. And so, you know, we don't stay awake at night working out formulas, or anything of the sort. But we don't ever do it if we think that we're not doing something at the time. If we had a lemonade stand, and Charlie and I and you owned it, and the lemonade stand was making us about a buck a week or something, and we divided it up. And then you said you wanted to get out. And if you said one number, and we'd have the funds in our little lemonade company, we'd buy you out. And if we didn't like the price, we wouldn't buy you out. And that's the same we feel. But we do feel an obligation to do things that we think are intelligent and in no way risk — absolutely no way present any risk, of financial problems under any circumstances, we can envision, except maybe something like nuclear war, you know, we will do it. But it never can be that big a factor. Charlie, I think, spoke the other day, in connection with Henry Singleton. I think he bought back 89% of the company over time. And he'd sold stock like crazy, or issued it, much earlier when it was overpriced, and he bought it back underpriced. But the key to that, of course, if having people think you're wrong in doing it, so he was able to buy a ton of it. And there are some other companies that have bought a ton of it, and Berkshire isn't going to get the chance to do that. Because we've got sensible shareholders is what it amounts to. If we had the same group of shareholders that own two-day puts, and they were our shareholders, we could buy back the whole company, you know, in a very short period of time. But it's such an easy concept to assess. I mean, the second stock I bought — I bought City Service Preferred, that was the first one. The second stock I bought was a company called "Texas Pacific Land Trust." And that came out of the bankruptcy of the Texas and Pacific Railroad back in the 1880s, or something like that. And they had three million-some acres, and they owned the minerals, and they owned the surface, and everything else. But it was terrible land in the 1880s. But they had some kind of a charter that said that they could use the proceeds from land sales, whatever it was they were going to buy in stock every year. And, you know, I sat there, when I was 13 or 14, and I figured, "If I live to be a hundred, I would own the whole place." Well, I haven't lived to be 100 yet, and I wouldn't have bought the whole place. So both calculations are, so far, imperfect. But it's been a remarkable company, just plain remarkable. Because they would talk about grazing fees of $6,000 a year, or something like that, you know, maybe, when they had three million acres. And then they kept finding oil, and more oil, and more oil. And they've changed the form, and all kinds of things, but they bought stock week after week after week. And I sat there and figured out how long it would take until I owned the whole company. And I obviously made some improper (Laughs) calculations because it wouldn't have worked that way. But it still was apparent to me that it would be a very good idea, if they had three million acres down there, that if they got all through with it, and they kept their mineral rights, and all kinds of things, which they were doing, you know, at a very cheap price it ought to work out well for anybody that sat around for a long time. And it has worked out extremely well for anybody who sat around a long time. But nobody knew that they were going to find a lot of oil, and that eventually El Paso would grow out far enough so that the surface lands became worth some money, that were somewhat near El Paso. And you had to go a couple hundred more miles to find the next person, but (Laughs) that was another problem. So, some of this stuff is so simple, you know? But, you know, if people want to get their Ph.D. or something, so they work out hundreds of pages, and have lots of Greek letters in it, and all that soft of thing, and either you're buying out your partner at an attractive price, or you're not buying him out at an attractive price. And if you've got the money around to do it, and the price is attractive, and you don't have some other opportunities, you know, why not do it? You've got to come out ahead by doing it. And if you've got other things that are more intelligent, you don't do it. And if it isn't intelligent on an absolute basis, you also don't do it. Charlie, have you got anything to add to the — what were you doing in 1943? (Laughs) You were in the Service?
查理·芒格嗯,沃伦,我们当初是从一个很小的起点起步的,走了这么远的路,如果不觉得乐在其中,那才是疯了。而且,一路上能和志同道合的朋友结伴而行,这是一种备受眷顾的人生。我们确实很幸运。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, Warren, we'd be crazy if we didn't rather enjoy having come a considerable distance from small beginnings. And to do that in good company, it's a favored life. We've been very fortunate.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊。顺便说一句,明天——(掌声)——我是说周一——我几乎可以确定地告诉你,如果有人向我们报盘——嗯,伯克希尔会有股票成交,但我们一股也不会买。但同样,将来某一天也很有机会,会有大量股票成交——而我们则有机会再增持一点——但不会很多。伯克希尔面临的一个问题是——我们的股东太聪明了,如果我们想回购股票,这倒成了一个难题(笑)。不过我们真的不想把任何人挤出去。但我们也存在于这里,为那些继续与我们同行的股东提升每股价值。我的意思是,这事没那么复杂。有些时候我们会回购,有些时候我们不会。将来不会有什么固定公式,但会有我刚才讲的那些原则。而且我估计,我的继任者,以及继任者的继任者,也会做出类似的计算,因为我们要找的是那些理性且忠于伯克希尔的人。那么,格伦,感谢你的到来。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. And, tomorrow — (Applause) — Monday — I can tell you, it's almost certain that, if anybody offers us — well, there will be shares traded of Berkshire, and we won't buy any. But it's also a pretty fair chance someday a lot of shares — we'll add a few shares — not a lot. Berkshire's got the — our shareholders are too smart, that's one of our problems (laughs) if we want to repurchase shares. But we really don't want to squeeze out anybody. But we also are here to do things that increase the value for the people who stick with us. I mean, it's not very complicated, and there'll be times when we'll do it, and there'll be times when we won't. There won't be any formula, but there will be the principles that I've just expressed. And my guess is that my successor, and their successor, will have a similar calculation, because we're looking for people that are rational and devoted to Berkshire. So, Glen, thanks for coming.
“独立”董事其实并不独立
"Independent" board directors aren't really independent
沃伦·巴菲特贝基,接下来该你了。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd, Becky, you're next.
贝基·奎克这个问题是纽约布鲁克林的戴夫·沙恩(音)发来的。他针对今天早些时候听到的内容提问。他问:“未来,格雷格能像您刚才提到的那样,拥有同样的临机决断权吗?能够不经董事会批准,当场做出几十亿美元的决策吗?”
BECKY QUICKThis question was sent in by Dave Shane (PH) from Brooklyn, New York. He's responding to something he heard earlier today. He said: "In the future, will Greg be able to act with the same spontaneity that you mentioned earlier? And make immediate, multibillion-dollar decisions without board approval?"
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我猜董事会会像一般人那样行事。他们会在很多事情上,或是某些事情上,设更多限制,或者进行更多征询,比对待我的时候要多。我是说,他们并非“有必要”这么做,但他们会觉得对格雷格还不够熟悉、观察他的时间还不够长,还有一大堆其他原因。而且他们会觉得特拉华州的法律能为他们提供更好的保护。顺便提一下,我们没有投保董事和高级管理人员责任险。要知道,纽约证券交易所几乎每家公司都买了这个险。我们就是不买。我的意思是,我是董事会成员,而你们——我指的是各位董事和我——你们是众多信托的受托人。嗯,这没什么。但有一件事很有意思:人们去博物馆的董事会任职,大家都知道,是要掏钱的。人们去大学董事会,也是要掏钱的。他们会说:“能进大学董事会是莫大的荣幸”,博物馆董事会或别的什么董事会也一样,“这是莫大的荣幸,所以你应该为我们筹款。”坦白讲,我觉得我们董事会比大学董事会或者医院董事会之类的有趣多了。反正要是去了博物馆或者艺术类的董事会,人家说什么我大概也听不懂。但人们发现当董事一年能赚 30 万美元,你要知道,这对某些人来说极其重要,对另一些人则无足轻重。而且,我的意思是,假如当初的制度设计是董事分文不取,很可能照样有大把人想当,这依然会是一种地位显赫的身份,诸如此类。可实际上,这钱来得太容易了。“独立董事”这整个概念,坦率地说,真没什么道理可言。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, my guess is that the board will respond as people do. They'll put some more restrictions, or they'll have some more consultation on a lot of matters, or some matters, than they do with me. I mean, they won't "need" to, but they'll feel that they haven't had the experience, they haven't seen him as long, and a whole bunch of things. And they'll feel that the Delaware laws protects him better. And, incidentally, they don't have directors and officers liability insurance. I mean, virtually every company on the New York Stock Exchange has it. And we just don't buy it. I mean, I'm on the board, and you're a trustee for a whole bunch of people with trusts, you and me — I'm talking about the directors and me. You know, fine. But it's very interesting: People go out on museum boards, you know, and they're expected to contribute. People go on college boards, and they're expected to contribute money. And they say, "It's a great honor to be on a university board," or a museum board, or whatever, "It's a great honor, and therefore you should raise money for us." Well, frankly, I think our board's more interesting than being on a university board, or, you know, a hospital board or something. I wouldn't know what they were talking about anyway, on a museum board or an art board. But people have found that they can make $300,000 a year, you know, which is enormously important to some people, and is meaningless to others. And, I mean, the chances are, if somehow, they'd arranged it so that directors didn't get paid at all, there'd be plenty of people wanted to be directors, and that'd be a prestigious sort of thing, and all that. But, in effect it's money that comes very easily. The whole idea of the "independent director," frankly, is it just doesn't really make any sense.
查理·芒格一个需要 30 万美元才肯来这儿的人,你不会认为他是独立的吧?
CHARLIE MUNGERYou don't think a director is independent who needs $300,000 to be here?
沃伦·巴菲特他需要那笔钱,没错。我是说——
WARREN BUFFETTHe needs the money, yeah. I mean —
查理·芒格他所谓的“独立”,跟一个奴隶的独立没什么两样。
CHARLIE MUNGERHe's "independent" the way a slave is independent.
沃伦·巴菲特我要读那么几段话,内容千真万确,只不过我做了一些处理。我不想让任何人被辨认出来。但这些都是逐字逐句的摘录。我不说是男的还是女的,为了方便起见,我就用男性代词。我从多年前收到的一封信里挑出了这么几句话。这封信写道:“我万分无奈,也深感难堪地给您写信。我已经试过了所有常规的筹钱办法。”这个人需要几百万美元,哪怕我在街上看到他我也不会认识,但他写了这封信说:“我需要几百万美元。”接下来这段,我想你们可能会觉得有意思,我特意保留了这封信。“我的收入 100% 来自我的董事费。”嗯,我刚刚查了他的情况。当时他是五家知名公司的董事,还曾担任过其他几家公司的董事,而且即将担任一大堆公司的董事。但他极度缺钱,他说他的收入“100% 来自董事费”。而在每一家任职的公司,他都被归类为“独立董事”。这实在让我震惊。要知道,再过几分钟我们就要开股东大会了,或者说马上就要开始了,但让我震惊不已的是,在 2006 年我们持有可口可乐公司 9% 的股份。我是说,他们可能送过我免费的可乐。但我们伯克希尔·哈撒韦拿着 9% 的股份,我们显然在意可口可乐公司的看法。偏偏就在那个时期,加州公务员退休基金(CalPERS)和其他一些机构建议针对这样那样的事投票反对我们。曾经一度有两家大型机构投资者投了反对票,因为他们认为我不够独立,理由是冰雪皇后买了一些可口可乐。或者,更准确地说,是拥有我们特许经营权的人买了一些可口可乐。我的意思是,他们以为我连脑子里的账都算不清吗?觉得我们有几十亿、几百亿、几千亿美元的身家,我会被这点事收买?这简直荒唐。结果,有一年,我的得票率从 96%——也可能是 98%,跌到了 84%。原因嘛——我记不清是 2004 年还是 2006 年了:反正不知什么时候,他们就是认定我并非那种能担此重任的合适人选。(笑)再说,那种认为董事费是董事们重要收入来源的观念,我是说,那正是他们想要的。他们也许也想做许多别的好事,这不代表他们是坏人。但如果这关系到你的生计,具体到这个例子,关系到这个人会不会破产:你怎么能把这样一个人称为“独立”,然后又说凡是持有大量股票的人——你知道,比如沃尔特·斯科特——就“不独立”,这简直可笑。可规则就是如此,我们遵守规则。
WARREN BUFFETTI am going to read a few sentences which are absolutely the case, except I'm doctoring it. I don't want anybody to be identified obviously with this. But these are word-for-word excerpts. And I'm not telling whether it's a woman or a man, I'm going to use a male pronoun just because it's easier. But I picked out a few sentences from a letter I received many years ago. And this letter said: "I'm writing to you with a great deal of reluctance, and a sense of personal embarrassment. I've tried all of the conventional means of raising the money." This person needed a couple million dollars, and I wouldn't have known the person if I saw him on the street, you know, but he wrote this letter and said, "I need a couple million dollars." And then this is the item that I think you might find interesting, and I've kept the letter. "My income is composed 100% of my board fees." Well, I just looked him up. At the time and he was a director of five prestigious companies, and had been directors of others, and was going to be a director of a whole bunch of things. But he was desperate for money, and he says he's "getting 100% of it from board fees." And he was an independent director, classified as "an independent director" at every one of these companies. And it's just astounding to me. You know, we're going to have a shareholders meeting in just a couple of minutes, or we're going to start it, and it's just astounding to me that in 2006 we owned 9% of the Coca-Cola Company. I mean, maybe they gave me a free Coke. But we owned 9% at Berkshire Hathaway, we obviously cared about the views of the Coca-Cola Company. And it just so happened in that era CalPERS and a few others had recommended that we be voted against for something or other. And at one time there were two big institutional investors that voted because they didn't think I was independent because Dairy Queen bought some Coca-Cola. Or, actually, the people that had our franchise bought some Coca-Cola. I mean, do they think I can't add things in my head? If we've got billions and billions and billions of dollars, that I'm going to be compromised? But it's just nutty. And so, one year, my vote fell from 96%, maybe it was 98%, voter approval, to 84%. Because — I forget whether it was 2004 or 2006: Somewhere along the line they just decided that I wasn't the right sort of person to be able to handle these responsibilities. (Laughs) And, you know, the idea that it's an important part of their income, I mean, what they want. They may want to do a lot of other good things, it doesn't mean they're terrible people. But if the difference is how you live, and in this case whether the person might go broke: How in the world you can call somebody like that "independent," and then say that anybody who owns a lot of st — you know, and whether Walter Scott's you know, "not independent," it's just ridiculous. But it's the way the rules are, and we follow the rules.
查理·芒格嗯,他们现在不光是要求“独立”了。他们想要一匹马、一只兔子、一头牛,还有什么别的。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, they don't want them just "independent" now. They want one horse, one rabbit, one cow, one whatever. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特你知道吗,我感觉自己就像伽利略——
WARREN BUFFETTYou know, I feel like Galileo —
查理·芒格光有独立性还不够。你还得具备一种非常多元化的独立性。
CHARLIE MUNGERIndependence is not enough. You've got to have a very diverse kind of independence.
沃伦·巴菲特对,对。而要是这些人极度需要这笔钱,就这个例子来说,100% 的收入都指望着它;同时你在全国最负盛名的五家公司的董事会里任职;在每一家都被定为“独立”;你日盼夜盼的,不过是让你的 CEO 接到另一个 CEO 的电话,问道:“这人还行吧?”然后你回答:“当然,他没问题。”言下之意是,“因为他不会惹麻烦”,于是他就能再进第六个董事会了。反正就是这样。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, yeah. And if they desperately need the money, in this case 100% of the income coming from it; and you're on five of the most prestigious boards in the country; and classified as "independent" on each; and all you're hoping is that your CEO gets called by another CEO and says, "Is this guy OK?" And you say, "Of course, he's OK." Which means, "Because he doesn't cause trouble," and so he gets on a sixth board. Anyway.
查理·芒格我只能说,这可不是我们心目中的“独立董事”。
CHARLIE MUNGERAll I can say is it's not our idea of an "independent director."
沃伦·巴菲特不。不。这一切多少有点疯狂。这也正好引出一个事实,大约 15 分钟后,我们不会在这里接着开股东大会了。我们将在 3:45 重新集合,届时会处理股东大会所要求的正式议程。欢迎大家留下参加,这会非常——(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTNo. No. It's all a little crazy. Which brings us to the fact that we're not going to have our annual meeting here in about 15 minutes. We'll reconvene at 3:45 and then we'll do the business of the meeting that is required. And you're all welcome to stay, and it's very — (Applause)
[章节] 正式会议开始
Formal business meeting begins
沃伦·巴菲特现在到了你们期待已久的时刻。我们将举行股东大会。查理不会跟我一起上台,因为过去有一两次,他被摄像机拍到睡着了。所以——(笑声)我们已经解决了这个问题。现在我要照着一份脚本开股东大会。你们也许会认为这不可能,但我会做给你们看。(笑)好,会议现在开始。我是沃伦·巴菲特,公司董事会主席。欢迎各位参加伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2022 年股东大会。马克·汉伯格是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的秘书,他将负责会议书面记录。丽贝卡·阿米克已被任命为本次会议的选举监票人,她将核证董事选举以及本次会议待表决动议的计票结果。本次会议指定的代理投票人行使人选是格雷格·阿贝尔和马克·汉伯格。秘书能否报告一下,有权在本次会议上投票并已获代表的伯克希尔发行在外股份数量?
WARREN BUFFETTWe now come to the moment you've all been waiting for. We will have the annual meeting. Charlie doesn't join me for this because once or twice in the past, he was caught on camera sleeping. So — (Laughter) We've solved that one. And we're now going to have an annual meeting where I follow a script. And you may think that's impossible, but I'll do it. (Laughs) So, the meeting will now come to order. I'm Warren Buffett, chairman of the board of directors of the company. I welcome you to this 2022 annual meeting of shareholders. Marc Hamburg is secretary of Berkshire Hathaway and he will make a written record of the proceedings. Rebecca Amick has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting and she will certify to the count of votes cast in the election for directors and the motions to be voted upon at this meeting. The named proxy holders for this meeting are Greg Abel and Marc Hamburg. Does the secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding entitled to vote and represented at the meeting?
马克·汉堡是的,我有。随本次会议通知寄送的代理声明中已载明,该通知于 2022 年 3 月 2 日(本次会议股权登记日)发送至所有在册股东,当时共有 614,692 股伯克希尔·哈撒韦 A 类普通股流通在外,每股就本次会议审议的动议享有一票表决权,另有 1,287,633,719 股伯克希尔·哈撒韦 B 类普通股流通在外,每股就本次会议审议的动议享有万分之一票表决权。在上述股份中,截至 4 月 28 日周四晚间,已交回代表 423,719 股 A 类股和 759,159,354 股 B 类股的委托书,据此出席本次会议。
MARC HAMBURGYes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent to all shareholders of record on March 2nd, 2022, the record date for this meeting, there were 614,692 shares of Class A Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at this meeting, and 1,287,633,719 shares of Class B Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding with each share entitled to one-ten-thousandth of one vote on motions considered at this meeting. Of that number, 423,719 Class A shares and 759,159,354 Class B shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through Thursday evening, April 28th.
沃伦·巴菲特好。我先打断会议一秒钟,宣布一下:隔壁还在卖货,目前已售出 15 艘船。好了,简短广告插播完毕——如果有人想离场,我也不会感到不快。谢谢。该数字表示已达到法定人数,我们直接进入会议。第一项议程是宣读上次股东大会会议记录。有请苏·德克尔小姐向会议提出动议。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. And I will interrupt this meeting for one second to announce that we're still selling things next door and we've sold 15 boats. So, with that brief commercial — and if anybody leaves, I will not be offended. Thank you. The number represents a quorum, and we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting. First order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders. I recognize Miss Sue Decker who will place a motion before the meeting.
苏·德克尔我提议免于宣读上年度股东大会会议记录,并直接批准该记录。
SUE DECKERI move that the reading of the minutes from the last meeting of shareholders be dispensed with and the minutes be approved.
沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTDo I hear a second?
女声我附议。
FEMALE VOICEI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特动议通过。
WARREN BUFFETTThe motion is carried.
[章节] 董事会投票
Voting for board of directors
沃伦·巴菲特下一项议程是选举董事。如果有到场股东此前未提交委托书,或希望撤回之前已提交的委托书,可以在本次会议上就董事选举及其他待审议事项亲自投票。请向过道中任意一位会议工作人员表明身份,以便领取选票。有请苏·德克尔小姐就董事选举事项向会议提出动议。
WARREN BUFFETTThe next item of business is to elect directors. If a shareholder is present who did not send in a proxy or wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in, you may vote in person on the election of directors and other matters to be considered at this meeting. Please identify yourselves to one of the meeting officials in the aisle so that you can receive a ballot. I recognize Miss Sue Decker to place a motion before the meeting with respect to election of directors.
苏·德克尔我提议选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、格雷格·阿贝尔、霍华德·巴菲特、苏珊·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、肯尼斯·切诺特、克里斯托弗·戴维斯、苏珊·德克尔、大卫·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·盖曼、阿吉特·贾恩、罗纳德·奥尔森、华莱士·韦茨和梅丽尔·维特默为董事。
SUE DECKERI move that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Gregory Abel, Howard Buffett, Susan Buffett, Stephen Burke, Kenneth Chenault, Christopher Davis, Susan Decker, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Agit Jain, Ronald Olson, Wallace Weitz and Meryl Witmer be elected as directors.
女声我附议。
FEMALE VOICEI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特动议已提出并获附议。德克尔小姐动议中所提名的 15 人当选董事。提名已准备好进行表决。如有股东亲自投票,现在请就本动议在选票上做出标记。阿米克小姐,你准备好后可提交报告。
WARREN BUFFETTIt has been moved and seconded. The 15 individuals named in Miss Decker's motion be elected as directors. The nominations are ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballot on the motion. Miss Amick, when you are ready, you may give your report.
丽贝卡·阿米克我的报告已准备就绪。根据截至上周四晚间收到的委托书,代理权持有人所投选票中,每位被提名人均获得不少于 449,190 票。该票数已超过全部已发行 A 类股和 B 类股所代表的总票数的半数。特拉华州法律所要求的精确计票证明将提交给秘书,随本次会议记录一并存档。
REBECCA AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast not less than 449,190 votes for each nominee. That number exceeds a majority of the number of the total votes of all Class A and Class B shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to place with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,阿米克小姐。15 位被提名人已当选为董事。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Miss Amick. The 15 nominees have been elected as directors.
股东提案
Shareholder proposals
沃伦·巴菲特接下来的四项议程涉及四项股东提案,每项提案均载于代理声明中,该声明可在 BerkshireHathaway.com 查阅。第一项提案要求公司通过一项政策并修订章程,规定董事会主席必须由董事会独立成员担任。董事会建议股东投票反对该提案。现在有请全国法律与政策中心代表彼得·弗莱厄蒂先生介绍该提案。
WARREN BUFFETTThe next four items of business relate to four shareholder proposals that are each set forth in the proxy statement that can be accessed at BerkshireHathaway.com. The first proposal requests that the company adopt a policy and amend the bylaws to require the chair of the board of directors to be an independent member of the board. The directors recommended that the shareholders vote against the proposal. I will now recognize Peter Flaherty, a representative of the National Legal and Policy Center, to present the proposal.
彼得·弗莱厄蒂下午好。我是彼得·弗莱厄蒂,全国法律与政策中心主席。我从华盛顿特区来,不过请别因此对我有偏见。我们的提案是要把董事长和 CEO 这两个角色分开。抱歉了,查理。但我还想更进一步,建议伯克希尔退出美国企业界对美国体制和文化的攻击。我可以自豪地说,我是一名资本家。但在我看来,一个明摆着的事实是,资本主义并没有造福美国人民。实际工资已经连年下降。贫富差距达到了空前的地步(现场嘘声),而我在奥马哈酒店窗外就能看到一个无家可归者的营地,这一幕在美国城市里早已司空见惯。我们拥有的不是自由经济,而是救市资本主义。小企业赔了钱,只能关门大吉;可亿万富翁押错了注,却有政府出面兜底。美联储不停印钞,政客们搞的所谓财政刺激不过是靠债务堆出来的、不负责任的开支,这些做法人为地吹高了资产价格。结果就是,资产最多的人获利最大,而工薪阶层却要承受毁灭性的通胀。但比贫富差距更可怕的是价值观鸿沟。如今最顶层那 1% 的人,正在把他们的腐朽道德强加给我们其余所有人,不管是通过批判种族理论(现场嘘声),还是跨性别主义,又或是充斥企业广告和对外信息中的形形色色的“觉醒”议题。美国企业界为什么在经济和文化上都拥抱激进主义?原因很简单。当你的钱太多时,你的财富就会被人盯上。要让自己安全,要让反商业势力不再找你麻烦,最好的办法就是支持他们的事业,哪怕这一过程会动摇那个让你致富的制度本身。正是因为这样,巴菲特先生才能鼓吹加税,尽管这些税收最终会落到中产阶级头上。美联储已经白白给美国企业界提供了超过十年的免费资金,制造出了一个寡头阶层,并极大地放大了企业的政治权力。如今高管们竟觉得自己可以对民选的州长和议员发号施令,我们在印第安纳州、佐治亚州、得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州已经见过这种场面。去年,可口可乐的英籍 CEO 詹姆斯·昆西试图用不实且煽动性的言论搞垮佐治亚州新的选举诚信法。他还搞了一套多元化培训,鼓励白人员工努力“少像白人一点”。尽管沃伦·巴菲特是可口可乐名气最大的股东,他对昆西的所作所为却一句都没有说。事实上,巴菲特先生还跳上了“美国是种族主义国家”的流行花车,在一份由企业领袖签署的声明上签了名,那份声明暗示共和党人想以种族为由限制投票权。这一切也没能阻止可口可乐去赞助一个从未有过自由选举、少数民族正遭受种族灭绝政策之害的国家——中国——的冬奥会。再看看苹果公司。苹果有相当大一部分供应链在中国。它会应中国政府要求,从应用商店下架人权活动人士使用的 App。当然,苹果也是全世界最擅长将企业税降到最低的公司,素来以通过离岸避税地转移利润而闻名。再看美国运通,这家公司给员工推行了一套反种族主义计划,教导我们资本主义本质上就是种族主义的,还要求员工参加一项活动,去判断自己到底是压迫者还是被压迫者。这些“觉醒”CEO 的激进做法也许正在逼近极限。佛罗里达人民已经在反击迪士尼的罗伯特·查佩克了,此人不仅认为性别本身就是一种压迫形式,还认为必须强迫幼儿园的孩子也去面对它。巴菲特先生曾经盛赞迪士尼角色的品牌生命力,以及父母们对迪士尼内容的信任——认为它对儿童既安全又合适。可现在,这家公司却开始给《小飞象》《彼得·潘》《阿拉丁》添加警告,说它们呈现了所谓的刻板印象。可怜的白马王子,也因为“未经同意”亲吻了白雪公主而被删得一干二净。沃伦·巴菲特至今没有回应这场笼罩美国企业界的危机,而我很担心他永远不会开口。是的,伯克希尔可以是一家控股公司,巴菲特先生也可以不去干涉手下经理的工作。但问题是,当这些高管利用他们的公司去发动大多数美国人根本不要的社会革命时,会发生什么?他难道就没有责任吗?他不能两头便宜都想占。在这个国家,财富原本受人仰慕甚至称颂,因为我们的制度允许任何人变得富有。可如果有一天,美国人忽然发现,自己的历史和未来正在遭受美国企业界的攻击,会怎样?那个支撑起如此富足的社会契约就会破裂。巴菲特先生,如果您是资本主义的代言人,为什么您不出手来拯救它?谢谢。
PETER FLAHERTYGood afternoon. I am Peter Flaherty, chairman of the National Legal and Policy Center. I'm from Washington, D.C., but please don't hold that against me. Our proposal would separate the roles of chairman and CEO. Sorry, Charlie. But I would take it one step further and suggest that Berkshire remove itself from corporate America's assault on American institutions and culture. I'm proud to say I'm a capitalist. But it is obvious to me that capitalism is failing to deliver for the American people. Real wages have been falling for years. Wealth disparity has never been greater (BOOING) and right outside my hotel window here in Omaha is a homeless encampment, an all-too familiar sight in American cities. We don't have a free economy. We have bailout capitalism. When small businesses lose money, they go out of business. But when billionaires bet wrong, government steps in. Money printing by the Federal Reserve and irresponsible, debt-fueled spending by politicians, what they call fiscal stimulus, have artificially inflated asset values. So, those with the most assets benefit the most. Wage earners get ruinous inflation. But even worse than the wealth gap is the values gap. The top 1% now seek to impose their corrupt morality upon the rest of us whether it's in the form of critical race theory (BOOING), transgenderism and/or the myriad of other woke causes that permeate corporate advertising and messaging. Why has corporate America embraced both the economic and cultural radicalism? It's pretty simple. When you have so much money, your fortune is going to come into scrutiny. The best way to insulate yourself and keep anti-business off your back is to embrace their causes, even if in the process you undermine the system that produces your wealth. That is what allowed Mr. Buffett to advocate for higher taxes, even though they will fall on the middle class. The Federal Reserve has offered free money to corporate America for over a decade now, creating a class of oligarchs and greatly enhancing corporate political power. Executives now believe that they can tell elected governors and legislators what to do, as we've seen in Indiana, Georgia, Texas and Florida. Last year, Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey, a British citizen, sought to kill Georgia's new voter integrity law by making inaccurate and inflammatory statements about it. He also instituted diversity training whereby white employees were encouraged to try to be less white. Despite being Coke's most celebrated shareholder, Warren Buffett is nothing about Quincey. In fact, Mr. Buffett jumped on the America is racist bandwagon by signing a statement by corporate leaders suggesting that Republicans seek to restrict ballot access based on race. All this did not prevent Coke from sponsoring the Winter Olympics in China which has never had a free election and where minority communities are the victims of genocidal policies. And what about Apple? A large part of Apple's supply chain is in China. The company removes apps from the app store at the request of the Chinese government because they're used by human rights activists. And of course, Apple is the world's most successful, corporate tax minimizer, famous for routing profits through off-shore tax shelters. Over at American Express, the company instituted an anti-racist initiative for employees to teach us that capitalism is fundamentally racist and requires workers to engage in an exercise to determine whether they are the oppressor or the oppressed. Activism by woke CEOs may be reaching its limits. The people of Florida are fighting back against Disney's Robert Chapek who not only embraces the view that gender is a form of oppression but that kindergartens must be forced to confront it. Mr. Buffett has praised the brand endurance of Disney's characters and the trust parents place in its content to be safe and appropriate for children. But now the company is adding warnings to Dumbo, Peter Pan and Aladdin about the stereotypes they allegedly portray. And poor Prince Charming has been excised for kissing Snow White, quote, unquote, "Without consent." Warren Buffett has yet to address the crisis gripping corporate America, and I fear he never will. Yes, Berkshire may be a holding company and Mr. Buffett may stay out of the way of managers. But what happens when these executives use their companies to wage a social revolution that most Americans don't want? Is he not responsible? He can't have it both ways. In this country, wealth has been admired and even celebrated because our system allows anyone to become rich. But what happens when Americans suddenly find their history and future under attack by corporate America? The social compact that permits such affluence will be broken. Mr. Buffett, if you are the face of the capitalism, why don't you do something to save it? Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特好的。(嘘声)谢谢你,弗莱厄蒂先生。如果有股东要亲自投票,现在请就该动议投下你们的选票。阿米克小姐,请你准备好后宣布结果。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. (BOOING) Thank you, Mr. Flaherty. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they now should mark their ballot on the motion. Miss Amick, when you're ready, you may give your report.
丽贝卡·阿米克我的报告已经准备好了。根据截至上周四晚上收到的代理投票,代理投票持有人所持的选票中,有 72,298 票赞成该动议,421,181 票反对该动议。鉴于(掌声)反对动议的票数已超过就该事项合规投出的所有 A 类股和 B 类股总票数的半数以上,该动议未获通过。特拉华州法律要求将精确的计票证明提交秘书,纳入本次会议记录。
REBECCA AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 72,298 votes for the motion and 421,181 votes against the motion. As (Applause) the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,阿米克小姐。该提案未获通过。(掌声)第二项提案要求公司发布一份年度评估报告,说明公司如何管理与气候相关的物理风险和转型风险以及机遇。董事会已建议股东投票反对该提案。现在,我将请 Federated Hermes 的代表蒂姆·尤曼斯陈述该提案。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Miss Amick. The proposal fails. (Applause) The second proposal requests that the company publish an annual assessment addressing how the company manages physical and transitional climate-related risks and opportunities. Directors have recommended the shareholders vote against the proposal. I will now recognize Tim Youmans, a representative of Federated Hermes, to present the proposal.
蒂姆·尤曼斯感谢主席、董事会和各位股东。我是蒂姆·尤曼斯,Federated Hermes 的 EOS 北美主管,今天在此讨论投票事项三。该提案由 Brunel Pension Partnership, Limited(由 EOS 代表)、魁北克储蓄投资集团(Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec)、加州公务员退休基金(California Public Employees Retirement System)以及新泽西州公共养老金 D 基金(State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund D)共同发起,代表它们合计数百万的最终受益人。EOS、Calpers 和 CDBQ 去年共同发起了一项类似的提案,要求公司启动气候相关风险报告,但公司尚未启动。然而,今年这项针对母公司气候报告的提案,其背景在三个方面有所不同。第一,我们增加了新泽西州公共养老金 D 基金;第二,我们站在这届股东大会前,根据我们的估算,得到了去年股东大会上投出票数中大多数非内部股东的支持。我们向公司提供了计票结果,显示去年提案获得了大多数非内部股东投票的支持,Glass Lewis 也证实了这一结果。公司不同意该结果,但未说明其理由。第三,母公司今年开始与共同发起人进行沟通。公司最近发布了一份对董事长致股东信的增补,由副董事长阿贝尔撰写,讨论了公司能源和铁路子公司中的气候变化事宜。此外,母公司的审计委员会已修订其章程,将气候风险监督纳入其中。我们欢迎公司新的沟通方式、副董事长阿贝尔的增补以及修订后的审计委员会章程。然而,这些变化并未以任何有意义的方式回应去年非内部股东多数支持的股东提案所提出的要求,以及今年投票事项三的要求,即母公司应:A)按照气候相关财务信息披露工作组的建议,开始对具有重大影响的子公司以及母公司整体进行年度气候相关财务报告;B)解释董事会如何监督整个企业的气候相关风险;C)探讨母公司及其子公司设立基于科学的温室气体减排目标的可行性。以下是所有股东,包括支持去年股东提案的非内部股东,应该再次(今年)告诉董事会改变方向、支持母公司气候风险报告的理由。副董事长阿贝尔的增补提到了减排。我们要求母公司报告气候相关财务风险,而不仅仅是减排,因为这些风险可能是重大的。阿贝尔的信中还提到了铁路和能源领域的减排,这两项业务是伯克希尔·哈撒韦“四大巨头”中的两项,正如董事长年度致股东信中所称呼的那样。那么保险业务中的气候风险呢?公司拥有 60 家子公司,还有不少大型投资持股。公司应以综合的母公司视角,披露铁路和能源之外的重大气候相关财务风险。我们要求公司从超过 1000 亿美元的现金等价物中拨出一小部分,用于母公司层面的气候风险报告。气候财务风险在母公司层面可能相当显著(甚至达到重大程度)。在 2021 年年报的第 K-26 页,公司指出气候相关风险可能造成损失,并显著影响财务业绩。然而,公司的审计师却对气候风险只字未提。我们曾要求审计师德勤解释这一不一致之处。我们要求审计委员会说明,既然公司自身已披露这是重大风险,为何德勤在其财务报表审计中没有披露其如何考量气候相关风险。代表 68 万亿美元资产的投资者组成了“气候行动 100+”气候变化合作参与倡议。伯克希尔·哈撒韦是美国唯一一家(唯一一家)在“气候行动 100+”净零排放进展评估中连续两年得分为零的主要上市公司;是无可争议的业绩最差者。这与伯克希尔·哈撒韦通常强劲、长期的财务表现记录形成了鲜明的反差。针对去年非内部股东的多数投票结果,公司在气候行动方面已有所起步。但还需要做得更多。副董事长阿贝尔是已确定的 CEO 继任者。他在 2020 年和去年的股东大会上的发言,以及他最近的信件,都表明他对气候风险有扎实的把握。我们请副董事长阿贝尔启动母公司层面的气候风险报告。这将使公司在应对美国证券交易委员会(SEC)新提出的气候披露规则方面抢占先机,SEC 规则要求的披露内容比我们第三项提案要求的更多。我们请所有股东,无论是非内部股东还是内部股东,包括董事长,投票支持第三项提案,支持在 2023 年股东大会之前启动母公司气候风险披露。谢谢。
TIM YOUMANSI thank the chair, the board and fellow shareholders. I'm Tim Youmans, lead North America EOS at Federated Hermes, here today to talk about ballot item three, a proposal that is cosponsored by Brunel Pension Partnership, limited, represented by EOS, Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, California Public Employees Retirement System, and state of New Jersey Common Pension Fund D, on behalf of their combined millions of ultimate beneficiaries. EOS, Calpers and CDBQ cosponsored a similar proposal last year asking the company to commence climate-related risk reporting which the company has not started. The context for this year's parent company, climate-reporting proposal is, however, different in three ways. First, we've added New Jersey Common Pension Fund D; second, we stand before this annual meeting of shareholders backed by, in our estimate, the majority of non-insider votes cast at last year's annual meeting. We provided the company tally showing that the majority of non-insider votes cast supported last year's proposal, and Glass Lewis has also corroborated this result. The company disagrees but has not shared its reasoning. Third, the parent company began engaging with the cosponsors this year. And the company recently published a supplement to the chair's letter from Vice Chair Abel discussing climate change matters in the company's energy and rail subsidiaries. Also, the parent company's audit committee has amended its charter to now include climate risk oversight. We welcome the company's new engagement approach, Vice-Chair Abel's supplement and the revised audit committee charter. However, these changes do not address in any meaningful way what last year's non-insider, majority-supported shareholder proposal asked for and what this year's ballot item three asked for, which is that the parent company should A) commence annual climate-related financial reporting for subsidiaries where material and for the parent company as a whole following the recommendations of the task force on climate-related financial disclosures; B) explain how the board oversees climate-related risks for the combined enterprise; and C) explore the feasibility of the parent company and its subsidiaries establishing science-based, greenhouse-gas reduction targets. Here is why all shareholders, including the non-insider shareholders who supported last year's shareholder proposal, should once again (this year) tell the board to change course and support parent company climate risk reporting. Vice Chair Abel's supplement talks about emissions reductions. We ask the parent company to report on climate-related financial risks, not just the emissions reductions, as these risks may be material. Abel's letter also talks about emissions reductions in rail and energy, two of the four giants of Berkshire Hathaway as they are referred to in the chair's annual letter. What about climate risk in insurance? The company has 60 subsidiaries and more than a few large investment holdings. The company should disclose material climate-related financial risks beyond rail and energy in a composite, parent company picture. We ask the company to allocate a small portion of its more than $100 billion in cash equivalents to climate risk reporting at the parent company level. Climate financial risk may be significant (even material) at the parent company. On page K-26 of the 2021 annual report the company states that climate-related risks could produce losses and significantly affect financial results. The company audit, however, is silent on climate risk. We have asked the auditor, Deloitte, to explain this inconsistency. We ask the audit committee to explain why Deloitte has not disclosed how it considered climate-related risks in its review of financial statements when the company itself disclosed this is a significant risk. Investors representing $68 trillion in assets make up the climate action 100-plus collaborative engagement on climate change. Berkshire Hathaway is the only major public company in the U.S. (the only one) to earn now for two years in a row a score of zero on the CA-100-plus net zero assessment of climate progress; the undisputed worst performer. This stands in stark contrast to Berkshire Hathaway's track record of usually strong, long-term, financial performance. In response to last year's non-insider, majority shareholder vote, the company has made a start towards climate action. Much more is needed. Vice Chair Abel is the named CEO's successor. His annual meeting remarks, both in 2020 and last year, and his recent letter, show he has a solid grasp of climate risk. We ask Vice Chair Abel to commence climate risk reporting at the parent company level. This would give the company a headstart in complying with the SEC's new proposed climate disclosure rules that ask for more disclosure than we ask for in item three. We ask all shareholders, both non-insiders and insiders, including the chair, to cast their votes for item three in support of parent company climate risk disclosures starting before the 2023 annual meeting. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。我确实觉得有必要稍微聊一下,公共养老金计划实际上服务于哪些人。一般来说,我们会听到各种声音——这绝不限于加州。但你知道,这些声音都在说要保护养老金持有人、退休人员等等。因此,他们通常会提出一些建议,我们可能同意,也可能不同意,就经济上是否真的有利而言。但他们确实,而且顺便说一句,也真心认为自己在代表养老金持有人。这些人现在每月都收到支票,已经在领了,以后也可能还能领。这种立场完全可以理解。但当然,从本质上讲,他们代表的并不是这群人。那些被承诺了养老金的人,无论是在加州还是美国任何其他州,都一定能拿到支票。这是明摆着的。美国、美国人民、加州人民,根本就不会容忍有人拿不到支票这种事发生。所以,不管用什么办法,他们的支票一定会到。各州会尽量在未来从本州纳税人手中征得足够多的钱,来支付这些支票。我是说,这就是各州建立养老金计划之类安排的原因。而许多州已经发现自己的税收在涨。实际上,没有一个州政府——美国的民意不会允许人们拿不到养老金支票。州政府确实有权对州内居民的收入、财产和其他各种东西征税,他们会行使这种权力,或者指望联邦政府拨款。他们什么都会做,唯独不会做的就是赖掉养老金。所以,如果你在一个公共养老金委员会任职,你很可能代表的是——从根本上说,你代表的是该州未来的纳税人。现在,未来纳税人有一个问题:他们可以离开这个州。当人们开始离开某个州时,情况就会变得很棘手,因为这些离开的人会带走与之相关的税收,比如所得税、销售税等等。所以,人们有相当大的迁徙自由。他们对美国税收的感觉不一样。没多少人会从一个国家搬到另一个国家去。但在美国,他们会搬。这是个渐进的过程。有时候也不那么渐进。当然,随着税基缩水,过去的养老金负担却还在。所以,它们变得有点像一家老旧的钢铁公司或类似的东西,不管是什么,其养老金计划可能会资不抵债,但它们会继续支付给人们,就像我们支付——你知道,我们在公司里对多雇主养老金计划等采取了某些政策。美国是不会亏待一大群人的,特别是那些会投票的人。道德感驱使我们必须这么做。而受托人最该担心的人——当然——是未来的纳税人。如果他们真把事情搞得一团糟,那些纳税人就越来越有可能离开。这会产生很多影响。有趣的是,你知道,伯克希尔如果要在一个地方建一个能用 50 年的工厂,我们脑海里会做的计算之一就是,到时候那里还能不能有人来缴税,因为我们的工厂搬不走。所以,所有这些看不见的决定一直在进行。我不认为代表未来的纳税人有什么错。我也不认为在养老金委员会里任职有什么问题。但我确实认为,他们理应弄清楚自己究竟代表的是谁。他们代表的是未来的纳税人。在某些情况下,他们正在给未来纳税人制造巨大的麻烦,因为他们就像政客一样。我的意思是,你知道,他们做出了要兑现的承诺,但必须用未来的收入来兑现。他们不能印钱,而人们可以离开他们的州。所以,这是一系列有趣的问题。我忍不住要提一下 1991 年,你们看过那段所罗门的录像,当时所罗门基本上要完蛋了,面临破产,在我看来,那会像野火一样迅速蔓延。谁知道会发生什么,就像 2008 年和 2009 年那样,你知道,雷曼倒下了,还有其他一些事?我是说,谁知道在那之后会发生什么?所以,当时所罗门的相对规模比 2008 年和 2009 年的雷曼要大得多。在 8 月的一个周日,财政部、美国证券交易委员会、美联储都在那个周日认定,他们周日早上做的一些事确实是个错误,他们最好在周日就改过来,否则整个经济体系可能会崩溃。在这本我们在外面有售的书《万亿美元的三重困境》里,开头几页描述了那段时期。就连我都不知道书里的一些内容,那些当时正在发生的事情。但基本上,美联储,艾伦·格林斯潘有一次被请来,格里·科里根也在,尼克·布雷迪是财政部长,他们不同程度地下了决心。但他们确实做出了决定(因为他们必须做出决定),大约在下午 2 点 30 分之前,决定是否要推翻他们在上午 10 点做的一些事,那件事可以说是史无前例。你能想象试图让(笑)美联储和财政部这样的机构推翻自己的决定吗?但他们确实意识到,他们可能做了某件事,会导致一场巨大的破产,进而可能演变成华尔街的一场风暴。所以,他们推翻了自己的决定,这本《万亿美元的三重困境》里讲述了这段故事。我知道当时发生的一些事。还有其他一些部分是我不知道的。不管怎样,所有这些机构都非常不情愿地推翻了自己的决定。大机构不喜欢推翻自己的决定,尤其不喜欢在仅仅四小时后,因为一个来自奥马哈的家伙告诉他们(笑),如果他们这么做,我们就要在东京宣布破产,因为我们将面临数十亿美元的挤兑,而我们付不起。而那些在明知公司要倒闭的情况下批准优先支付的董事,要承担各种法律责任。整件事在分崩离析。值得称赞的是(极大的赞誉),基本上是美联储和美国证券交易委员会(主要是美联储和财政部),他们说我们不能让这种事发生。这可能会导致一场国家灾难。有几个星期,我们大约需要 1300 亿到 1400 亿美元的融资。在那时候,1300 亿或 1400 亿美元可是一大笔钱。我们是当时美国最大的三四个借款人之一,我们天天都在借钱。我们用政府债券作为抵押。我们有库存。但我们只有 40 亿美元的资本金,却背着 1300 亿美元的债务。有一个人(一个很棒的人),约翰·麦克法兰。他是财务主管。他睡在所罗门公司市中心的办公室楼下,或者就在办公室附近,日复一日,因为每天都有 10 亿美元在流失。所罗门遭遇了挤兑,这是财政部、美联储和美国证券交易委员会都不希望发生的挤兑;他们为此推翻了自己的决定和其他种种安排。过了几天,不知出于什么原因——但加州公务员退休基金是我们的一个大贷款方。他们决定不再与所罗门做生意了。他们要加速这次挤兑。有一天他们宣布,他们基本认同正在发生的一切,但他们就是不想和我们有任何瓜葛,即使我们给他们政府债券作为担保。这加剧了美联储、(笑)美国财政部和美国证券交易委员会的问题。没有人知道结果会怎样。但他们撤资了,其他人也撤资了,约翰·麦克法兰待在市中心,每天都努力筹集 10 亿美元,来应对所有因挤兑而提款的人。美联储不希望这场挤兑失控,但他们不能直接给我们钱。财政部也不希望挤兑失控,但他们也不能给我们钱,如此等等。你知道,这是一个很棘手的问题。而加州公务员退休基金,就像我说的,他们说,好吧,我们不想和这些家伙有任何关系,所以我们不会用政府证券作抵押借钱给他们,即使贷款本身是安全的。然后,过了一会儿,他们给我传话说,如果我愿意去加州和那些人(受托人)谈谈,他们就会重新考虑。所以,这就是他们想要的条件,作为他们不继续参与这次挤兑并改变立场的一部分。除了因为那是所罗门,我绝不会为任何事做这种事。我是说,所以,基本上,我登上了飞机,飞往加州,会见了加州公务员退休基金的人。我没收他们任何费用。如果当时我向他们收取一大笔钱,他们反而会重视。但他们也照样重视了。我去那里时,他们对我非常客气。我和他们谈了。他们很高兴,给我鼓掌,注意听我说话,因为我没有向他们收取高额费用或类似的东西。然后我回到了纽约,之后他们开始和我们做生意,并宣布他们认定所罗门是可以做生意的。所以,当他们再来提出什么建议时,我难免会有点偏见(笑声)。他们提交了一份提案。他们说,在他们的提案中(这出现在我们的委托代理声明里——我们已提交给美国证券交易委员会),如果不是事实,我们是不会写的。基本上,他们犯了一个错误,他们和其他一些人。他们犯了一个错误,说了些关于股东投票的事。在 2021 年股东大会(这是他们支持提案的一部分)上,绝大多数非内部股东支持了一项类似版本的决议。好吧,我们在回应中说,提案人声称在 2021 年股东大会上,绝大多数非内部股东支持了一项类似决议,这是不正确的。事实上,绝大多数上述股东并不支持该提案。这要么是真的,要么是假的。你知道,我有负责处理我们 Broadmoor 材料的那家公司的最后一份报告。那家公司叫什么来着?Broadridge。报告里列出了股东人数,大概是投票截止前的最后一天。上面有支持我们和反对我们的股东人数。比例大概是四比一,我们占优,类似这样。但这对他们来说根本无关紧要。我是说,让我着迷的是——(掌声)而且,你知道,我愿意跟人打赌,如果我们能找到一个公正的法官,你去任意选一组人——比如美国五大公用事业公司的 CEO,十大公用事业公司的 CEO,问他们,伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司在可再生能源领域是不是一直走在前列等等,他们都会说是的。但基本上,你遇上的是一群给我们写信说“我们希望你按我们的方式做事。你有 300 万其他股东,但别管他们,在这上面花点钱,和我们开个会。这是我们的债务衡量标准”的人。诚然,我们提供了大量关于我们所作所为的信息。他们可以来爱荷华州看看,这里几乎堪称世界可再生能源之都。而这都是我们做出来的。但那不是他们想要的。(掌声)所以,我支持股东民主之类的东西,但问题在于,这些决议,是他们花了很多钱给某个大概在这些组织里工作的人。他们有他们的做事方式。我收到欧洲机构的来信。他们说:“呃,你知道,你可能有 40 页的说明,或者追溯到 2006 年的历史来解释你在做什么,但这是我们希望你做的报告方式。”你知道,我们拥有的童装品牌 Garanimals 又用了多少能源呢?你坐在奥马哈这里,得这么想,你知道,这些就是规则。你在某些情况下才能登上委托代理声明。大多数公司不想要那么多决议,所以对他们来说,更省事的做法是,你知道,成立一个部门,雇一帮人去关照他们,就像沃伦飞越整个国家一样。因为那跟钱无关。我只是担心一家公司的生存,而华盛顿的监管者们也担心它的生存。如果我飞越全国,给予他们足够的尊重,你知道,这有点像《教父》或什么的。我俯首致意,然后飞回来。所以,我难免有所保留。股东提案应该有其意义。我是说,这是我年轻时曾主张的那种东西。但,你知道,基本上,在我看来,现在有些项目你可以放进去,有些则不行了。现在全国几乎每个 CEO,作为首席执行官都希望召开线上会议。他最不想做的事,就是让股东和人们站起来提建议。我们会继续讨论这个问题。我们看待这件事的方式是,到最后,我们会有一份关于这次投票结果的报告。我可以向你保证,我们没有往投票箱里塞选票。我们什么也没做。我是说,选举舞弊,你知道,不像芝加哥的旧时代,你得等着墓地里的选票寄来之类的事。我们不统计选票,你知道。我们不会说它们来自哪里。我们不知道它们来自哪里。但我们能看出,有两三家机构持有大量股份,但它们只是一个所有者。它们以某种方式投票,然后它们觉得自己的良心纯洁了。它们关心的是我们有没有勾选它们要求的条目,以及为它们工作的那些人。有一定数量的人受雇于它们,他们的内心是纯洁的。但我们的内心也并不肮脏。说了这些,我不会再提这事了。但在越来越趋于规则导向的情况下,这确实是一个非常有意思的发展,基本上每家公司都想方设法与这些人谈判。而且很多 CEO 都这么做。我的意思是,他们只是把这当成必须忍受的事。他们设立一个部门来回答问题,会见这些人,向他们表示恰当的尊重,等等。而且,你知道,这样做是为了贯彻一件事情,而我认为其本质相当愚蠢。如果我认为伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司的行为对社会有害,比其他公用事业公司更差。但没有一家公司——原因当然是,我们从不抽走分红。所以,我们把数百亿美元投入业务。事实上,每家公用事业公司都派发股息。这不是公用事业管理层的错。这只是公用事业行业一直以来的惯例。但它们确实没剩下多少现金。而我们有大量现金,并且我们还会投入更多现金。我们愿意兴建,你知道,不论多少,输电线路和各种对国家有帮助的东西。我们现在做得不少,但我们可以做得更多。而且,我们确实比国内任何一家公用事业公司都更有条件去做这件事。我认为,如果你去和其他公用事业高管谈谈,我不建议你故意让他们难堪或怎样,但他们会同意的。不过他们也知道,如果有人专门去打理那些基本上想被迎合的人,他们的日子会好过一些。我在 1991 年所罗门危机时就迎合了他们,因为那里有 8000 名员工。约翰·麦克法兰每天都在努力筹集 10 亿美元。财政部、美联储和美国证券交易委员会希望我们活下来。实际上,正是这个原因促使我去向“教父”表达了敬意,然后我回来了。但我确实觉得,了解一点背景是挺有意思的。说到这里,我们请阿米克女士来做报告,好吗?(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. I do think it's worth discussing just a little bit who the actual constituency is on public pension plans. Generally speaking, we hear from various — and it's not limited to California in the least. But, you know, they're protecting the holders of the pensions and the retired people and all of that. And therefore, they're usually suggesting something that we may or may not agree with in terms of whether it's actually in the economic interest. But they do and they honestly feel, incidentally, that they are representing the pension holders. People are going to get these checks every month now. They're getting them now. They may get them later. It's a very understandable position. But of course, in essence, that's not who they represent. The people that are promised the pensions, whether it's in California or any other state in the Union, they're going to get their checks. It's obvious. The United States, American people, people in California, are simply not going to stand for the fact that people don't get their checks. So, one way or another, they're going to get their checks. To the extent possible, the states will attempt to realize from the taxpayers of the state in the future enough money so they can pay the checks. I mean, that's why states have adopted pension plans and that sort of thing. And many of the states have found their taxes to go up. I mean, in effect, no state government — public opinion in the United States, they're not going to allow people not to get their pension checks. And the state does have the right to tax income and property and various things of people within their state and they'll exercise the power or they'll look to the federal government for grants. They'll do anything but the one thing they aren't going to do is stiff the pensioners. So, you're probably representing if you're on a public pension — essentially are representing the future taxpayers of the state. Now, there's one problem about future taxpayers. They can leave the state. And it gets awkward in certain states particularly when people start leaving the state because the revenue that goes with those people, from income taxes and sales tax and so on. So, people have a fair amount of freedom of movement. They don't feel the same way about U.S. taxes. Not very many people are going to move from one place to another. In the United States, they move. And it's gradual. Sometimes it isn't so gradual. And of course, as the tax base goes down, the past pensions stay. So, they become kind of like an aging steel company or something of the sort that whatever it may be, where the pension plans may become insolvent but they're going to keep paying the people just like we're paying on — you know, we've adopted certain policies on multi-employer pension plans and so on in the company. The United States is not going to stiff a bunch of people, particularly people that vote. The moral feeling is to do it. The people that the trustees should be worried about because they — of course is the future taxpayers. And if they really mess things up, those taxpayers become more and more likely to leave. And it has a lot of effects. Interestingly enough, you know, one of the calculations that might go on in Berkshire's mind if we're going to build a plant someplace that's going to sit there for 50 years is whether there are going to be any people around that are going to pay the tax, and we can't move our plant. So, all these invisible decisions go on all the time. I don't think there's anything wrong with representing the taxpayers of the future. I don't think there's anything wrong with sitting on a pension board. But I do think they ought to actually figure out who they really are representing. And they're representing future taxpayers. And in some cases, they're creating some tremendous problems for future taxpayers because they're like politicians. I mean, you know, they've got promises they're going to fulfill but they've got to do it from revenue that comes in in the future. And they can't print money and people can leave their state. So, it's an interesting set of problems. And I can't resist mentioning in 1991, you've seen that Salomon tape, when Salomon essentially might or might not have gone down the drain and had a bankruptcy which, in my opinion, would've spread like wildfire. And who knows what would've happened, just like in 2008 and '09, you know, where Lehman fell and a few things? I mean, who knows what's going to happen after something like that? So, Salomon was bigger relatively by far than Lehman was in 2008 and '09. And on a Sunday in August, the Treasury Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Reserve all decided on a Sunday that something they did on Sunday morning really was a mistake and that they better change it on a Sunday or the whole economic system might go down the tubes. And in this book which we have for sale out here, Trillion Dollar Triage, in the first early pages, it describes that period. I didn't know some of the stuff that's in the book, even, that was going on. But essentially, the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan was brought in one time, Gerry Corrigan was there, Nick Brady was Secretary of the Treasury, they decided with various degrees of conviction. But they did decide (because they had to decide) by roughly 2:30 in the afternoon whether something they did at 10:00, which was kind of unprecedented, they were going to reverse themselves. Now, can you imagine trying to get institutions like the (Laughs) Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to reverse themselves? But they did realize that they had probably done something that was going to cause a huge bankruptcy which could turn into a whirlwind in Wall Street. So, they reversed themselves and it tells the story in this Trillion Dollar Triage. And I knew some of what was going on. There was other parts I didn't know what was going on. Anyway, all of those institutions reversed themselves very reluctantly. Big institutions do not like to reverse themselves and particularly not four hours later when some guy from Omaha was telling them (Laughs) if they do this, we're going to declare bankruptcy in Tokyo because we're going to have a multi-billion-dollar run and we can't pay it. And directors who approve preferential payments when they know the place is going bust have all kinds of legal liability. And the whole thing is falling apart. And to their credit (enormous credit), you basically had the Fed and the SEC (mostly it was the Fed and the Treasury) and they said we just can't have this happen. It could produce a national catastrophe. And for some weeks, we had about $130 or $140 billion of funding. And $130 or $140 billion was a lot of money in those days. We were one of the three or four largest borrowers in the United States and we borrowed daily. And we borrowed against government bonds. We had inventory there. But we only had $4 billion of equity and we had $130 billion. And there was a guy (a wonderful guy), John McFarland. He was the treasurer. He slept down at the downtown offices, or right near their offices, at Salomon for days and days and days and days because $1 billion a day was draining out. There was a run on Salomon and it was a run that the Treasury and the Fed and the SEC did not want to have happen; reversed themselves and everything. And a few days into it, for whatever reason — but CalPERS was a big lender to us. And they decided they weren't going to do business with Salomon anymore. They were going to accelerate the run. And they announced one day that they kind of approved of everything that was going on, but they just didn't want anything to do with us, even though we were giving them government bonds as security. And this was accentuating the problems for the Federal Reserve, the U.S. (Laughs) Treasury, the SEC. And no one knew how it was going to come out. But they pulled and other people pulled and John McFarland stayed downtown and kept trying to raise $1 billion every day to pay all people in terms of the run that was occurring. And the Fed did not want this run to get out of hand but they couldn't give us the money. And the Treasury didn't want the run to get out of hand but they couldn't give us money, and so on. You know, it was a terrible problem. And CalPERS, like I say, they said, well, we don't want anything to do with these guys so we won't lend on government securities even though the loan is good. And then, a little later, they sent word to me that if I would come out to California and talk to the people (the trustees) that then they would reconsider. So, that was what they wanted as part of their deal not to cause — keep participating in this run and take a different position. And I never would've done this for anything except for the fact that it was Salomon. I mean, so, basically, I got on a plane and I flew to California and I met with the CalPERS people. And I wasn't charging them anything. If I'd been charging them a lot of money, they would've paid attention. And they still paid attention. They were very nice to me when I went out there. And I talked to them. And they were happy and they clapped and they paid attention to what I said because I wasn't charging them a big fee or anything of the sort. And I went back to New York and then they started doing business with us and announced that really they had decided Salomon was fit to do business. So, I have a little bias (Laughter) in terms of when they come around. And they present a proposal. And they say that, in their proposal, and this was in our proxy statement — and we filed this with the SEC. We're not going to say it if it isn't true. And basically, they make a mistake, they and some other people. They make a mistake and say something about the shareholders voting. It says in 2021 annual meeting, this is part of their supporting proposal, where a significant majority of non-inside shareholders supported a similar version of this resolution. Well, we say in our response, the proponents' assertion that at the 2021 annual meeting, a significant majority of non-insider shareholders supported a similar resolution is incorrect. In fact, a significant majority of said shareholders did not support the proposal. That's either true or false. And you know, I have the last report submitted by that same firm that handles our material at Broadmoor. What is it? Broadridge. And it reports the number of shareholders and it's the last day before the voting or something like that. And it's got the number of shareholders that support us and are against us. And it's four to one in our favor, something like that. And it just doesn't make any difference to them. I mean, it's fascinating to me that — (Applause) and, you know, I would be willing to wager somebody if we could find an impartial judge, that if you go to any group you want to pick that's — take the CEOs of the five leading utility companies in the United States, CEOs of the ten leading, and ask them, you know, whether Berkshire Hathaway energy has been a leader in the field of renewables and so on and they'd all say yes. But essentially, you've got a group of people that write us letters and say, "We want you to do things our way. And you've got 3 million other shareholders but forget about them, and spend some money on this, and have a meeting with us. And here's our way of measuring the debt." And admittedly, we've got all kinds of information up about what we've done. And they can come out to Iowa and look around, and it is the renewables capital of the world practically. And we're the ones that have done it. And that isn't what they want. (Applause) So, I'm for shareholder democracy and all that sort of thing, but the answer is that the resolution, that they pay lots of money to somebody that probably works in these groups. And they've got their way of doing it. I get letters from institutions in Europe. And they say, "Well, you know, you may have 40 pages or a history going back to 2006 of explaining what you're doing, but here's the way we want you to do it." You know, and how much energy is Garanimals, which we own? And it's just, you have to think as a person sitting here in Omaha, you know, these are the rules. You get on the proxy statement under circumstances. Most companies they don't want a lot of resolutions, so it's just easier for them to, you know, set up a department and, you know, pay a bunch of people to pay attention to them just like Warren did when he flew across the whole country. Because it wasn't money. I just was worried about a company surviving that the people in Washington, the supervisor were worried about it surviving. And if I flew across country and paid them sufficient respect, I mean, it's kind of like The Godfather or something, you know. I just bow down, and then flew back. So, I have a certain reservation. Shareholder proposals should have some meaning. I mean, it's the kind of thing I argued for when I was younger. But, you know, basically it's become, in my opinion, there are certain items that you can put on them now and certain that you can't. And practically every executive in the country, now as chief executive wants to have a virtual meeting. The last thing he wants to do is have his shareholders and people stand up and propose things. And we'll just keep talking about it. The way we see it is, and in the end, we will have a report that is to the vote this time. And I can assure you, we're not stuffing the ballot box. We're not doing anything. I mean, voter fraud, you know, it's not like Chicago in the old days where you waited for the cemetery vote to come in and that sort of thing. We don't count the votes, you know. We don't say where they come from. We don't know where they come from. But we can tell when two or three institutions have got huge amounts of shares, but they're one owner. And they vote a certain way, and then they feel pure. And what they care about is whether we check their boxes and the people that work for them. Certain number of people are getting employed by them, and their hearts are pure. But ours aren't impure. And with that, I won't do this again. But it's a really interesting development in terms of getting more rules-based type of situation where basically almost every company figures out how to negotiate with the people. And they all have a good many of the CEOs. I mean, they just figure it's something that they endure. They set up a department to answer the questions and meet with the people and show them the proper respect, and so on. And, you know, it's being done to carry through on something which I think the substance of is pretty silly. If I thought Berkshire Hathaway Energy was behaving in a way that was bad for society, worse than other utility companies. But no company — and the reason of course is that we don't take dividends out. So, we pump tens of billions of dollars into the business. In fact, every utility pays out the dividends. And it's not the fault of the utility management. That's just a policy that's been the case in the utility industry. But they don't really have much cash left over. And we have plenty of cash, and we'll put in more cash. And we're willing to build, you know, whatever amount, transmission lines and all kinds of things that would be helpful to the country. And we're doing a fair amount, but we could do a whole lot more. And we're better positioned to do it really than any utility company in the country. And I think if you talk to other utility executives, I don't advise you to go and put them on the spot or anything, but they would agree. But they also know that their life is easier if they just have somebody to take care of people that want to be catered to basically. And I catered to them in the time of Salomon in 1991, because 8,000 people were working there. And John McFarland was trying to raise a billion dollars a day. And the Treasury and the Fed, SEC wanted us to stay alive. And, in fact, that caused me to go and pay my respects to the Godfather and I came back. But I do think a little background is kind of interesting on this. And with that, we'll ask Ms. Amick, can you give your report? (Applause)
丽贝卡·阿米克我的报告准备好了。根据上周四晚前收到的委托投票,代理持有人投票结果为:赞成票 127,214 票,反对票 370,415 票。由于反对票数超过就此事正式投出的所有 A 类股和 B 类股投票数的多数,该动议未获通过。特拉华州法律要求将投票精确计数证明交给秘书,并将其载入本次会议记录。
REBECCA AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening case 127,214 votes for the motion and 370,415 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特对,我再补充一句(掌声)——一两天前我收到了这家公司发来的最后一份报告,结果显示是四比一或五比一。我很乐意与大家分享。但就股东人数而言,根据新泽西那边的人告诉我的投票情况,我们是反对的。而且,如果他们明年重新提出这项提案,我只希望他们删掉那一行。因为我只想建议,在宣布提案或类似内容之前,先读一下提案本身或事实到底是什么。好了,第三项提案要求公司发布一份报告,说明其是否以及如何计划衡量、披露并减少与承保、保险和投资活动相关的温室气体排放。董事们建议股东投票反对该提案。现在有请 Whistle Stop Capital 的代表杰伦·斯潘介绍这项提案。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, and I will just add that (Applause) I got a report a day or two ago, the last report they sent from this firm. And it's four to one or five to one. I'd be glad to share it with anybody. But in terms of number of shareholders based on what these people in New Jersey tell me the vote was, we're against it. And, you know, if they would reintroduce the proposal next year, I just hope they leave that line out. Because I would just suggest that somebody read what the proposal is or what the facts are before they announce their proposals and all that sort of thing. OK, well, the third proposal requests that the company issue a report addressing if and how it intends to measure and disclose and reduce GHG emissions associated with underwriting, insuring and investing activities. The directors will recommend that the shareholders vote against the proposal. I will now recognize Jaylen Spann, representative of Whistle Stop Capital to present the proposal.
杰伦·斯潘董事长巴菲特先生,各位董事会成员,下午好。我叫杰伦·斯潘。首先,感谢各位给我这个机会,代表股东提案方 As You Sow 提交第四号提案。该提案要求伯克希尔衡量、披露并开始减少其保险、承保和投资活动所支持的温室气体排放。简单来说,该提案要求伯克希尔为其对气候变化的贡献承担责任。美国商品期货交易委员会已经承认,气候变化可能损害国民经济的生产能力。国内外与气候变化相关的一系列事件——加利福尼亚和科罗拉多的山火、中西部地区的洪水、日益增强的飓风、德克萨斯州的严寒冰冻,仅举几例——都证明了气候变化带来的风险和成本在不断上升。2021 年,全球保险业的损失是有记录以来第二高的年份,自然灾害造成的保险损失总额达 1200 亿美元。值得注意的是,这些损失已不能再简单地归为“糟糕的一年”。正如慕尼黑再保险指出的那样,自然灾害造成的经济损失呈上升趋势。保险业正面临与气候变化相关的保险损失逐年增长的局面。伯克希尔不仅面临气候相关风险,还通过持续投资和承保高碳活动,积极放大这些风险。伯克希尔是石油和天然气行业最大的保险提供商之一,超过了安达保险和利宝互助保险等同行。其仅持有的股份就价值 51 亿美元,再次远超其美国同行。一家金融机构的投资和承保活动是其总碳足迹的最大来源,这凸显了伯克希尔需要衡量、披露并开始为其促成的排放承担责任。全球金融业正在迎接挑战,以实现《巴黎协定》将全球升温控制在 1.5 摄氏度的目标。净零保险联盟已发展到 22 个成员,其中 7 个位列全球市值前 30 的保险公司。所有成员都承诺,到 2050 年实现其保险和再保险承保组合的净零排放。美国国际集团和哈特福德金融服务公司最近也承诺,到 2050 年或更早实现其承保和投资组合的净零排放。伯克希尔落后于美国和欧洲的同行,这一状况增加了全球气候风险,也增加了其自身投资组合的风险。保险业,特别是伯克希尔,在持续的低碳转型中扮演着关键角色。我们相信,伯克希尔有能力在这个关键问题上成为气候领导者。而第一步就是量化其承保和投资活动相关的排放,披露这些排放,并开始制定与《巴黎协定》目标一致的减排计划。为了确保全球范围内成功保护这个星球及其居民,每个企业都必须为自己对气候变化的贡献承担责任。我们期待与伯克希尔合作解决这一至关重要的问题。谢谢。
JAYLEN SPANNChairman, Mr. Buffett, and board members, good afternoon. My name is Jaylen Spann. I want to first thank you for the opportunity to present proposal number four on behalf of shareholder representative, As You Sow. This proposal asks Berkshire to measure, disclose, and begin reducing the greenhouse gas emissions supported by its insuring, underwriting, and investment activities. In its most simple terms, the proposal asks Berkshire to take responsibility for its contribution to climate change. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has acknowledged that climate change can impair the productive capacity of the national economy. The litany of national and global events associated with climate change, the fires in California and Colorado, the floods across the Midwest, the growing strength of hurricanes, the deep freeze in Texas to name just a few, demonstrate the growing risks and costs of climate change. 2021 was the second most costly year on record for the world's insurers, with insured losses totaling $120 billion from natural catastrophes. Significantly, these losses can no longer be categorized as simply a bad year. As noted by Munich Re, economic losses caused by natural catastrophes are trending upward. The insurance industry faces year on year growth in insured losses related to climate change. Berkshire is not only exposed to climate-related risks but is actively amplifying these risks through its continued investment in and underwriting of high-carbon activities. Berkshire is one of the largest providers of coverage to the oil and gas industry, surpassing peers such as Chubb and Liberty Mutual. Its shareholdings in whole alone amounts to $5.1 billion, once again far surpassing its American peers. A financial institution's investment and underwriting activities are by far the greatest source of its total carbon footprint, highlighting the need for Berkshire to measure, disclose, and begin taking responsibility for the emissions it enables. The global financial sector is rising to the challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement's goal to maintain global temperature rise at 1.5° Celsius. The Net Zero Insurance Alliance has grown to 22 members, seven of which are in the top 30 largest global insurers by market cap. All members have committed to reach net zero emissions from their insurance and reinsurance underwriting portfolios by 2050. AIG and the Hartford have also recently committed to reach net zero emissions from their underwriting and investment portfolios by 2050 or sooner. Berkshire is lagging both its American and its European peers, a position that increases climate risk globally and to its own portfolios. The insurance industry and Berkshire specifically has a key role to play in the ongoing, low-carbon transition. And we believe Berkshire has the ability to become a climate leader on this critical issue. And the first steps are to quantify the emissions associated with its underwriting and investing activities, disclose those emissions, and begin developing plans to reduce those emissions in alignment with the Paris goal. To ensure global success in protecting this planet and its inhabitants, every business must take responsibility for its own contribution to climate change. And we look forward to working with Berkshire to address this vital issue. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,斯潘女士。(掌声)该动议尚未准备好进行表决。如果有股东打算亲自投票,现在应该——这边能不能开个灯?——他们现在应在表决器上就动议进行投票。阿米克女士,你准备好后就可以报告了。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Ms. Spann. (Applause) The motion's not ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now — how about a little light up here? They should now mark their ballot on the motion. Ms. Amick, when you are ready, you may give your report.
丽贝卡·阿米克我的报告准备好了。根据上周四晚前收到的委托投票,代理持有人投票结果为:赞成票 127,065 票,反对票 370,630 票。由于反对票数超过就此事正式投出的所有 A 类股和 B 类股投票数的多数,该动议未获通过。特拉华州法律要求将投票精确计数证明交给秘书,并将其载入本次会议记录。(掌声)
REBECCA AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 127,065 votes for the motion, and 370,630 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of the votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, the motion has failed. The certification required by the Delaware law (Applause) of the precise count of the votes given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,阿米克女士。提案未通过。第四项提案要求公司向股东报告其多元化、公平和包容性工作的成果。董事们建议股东投票反对该提案。现在有请 Whistle Stop 的代表杰伦·斯潘介绍这项提案。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Ms. Amick. Proposal fails. The fourth proposal requests the company report to shareholders on the outcome of its diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. Directors are recommending that the shareholders vote against the proposal. We will now recognize Jaylen Spann, representative of Whistle Stop to present the proposal.
杰伦·斯潘大家好。我叫杰伦·斯潘。我代表非营利倡导组织 As You Sow 和 Whistle Stop Capital 发言。我正式提出第五项提案,要求伯克希尔·哈撒韦通过发布按性别、种族和族裔划分的员工组成、招聘、留任和晋升率的量化数据,报告其多元化、公平和包容性工作的成果。沃伦·巴菲特曾提到,他与两位姐妹一起长大,引用巴菲特先生的话说,“她们绝对和我一样聪明,性格还更好”。他还勇敢地承认,直到 2003 年他妻子建议后,他才将女性纳入董事会——那是在他创办公司 40 年之后。知道所有性别、种族和族裔的人都能为伯克希尔·哈撒韦做贡献是一回事;在公司内部有意识地、主动地创造空间、机会和培训,让这些人能够在不受骚扰和歧视的情况下做出贡献,则完全是另一回事。在没有数据的情况下,我们只能假设伯克希尔·哈撒韦的各家公司既不比美国任何一家公司更好,也不比它们更差。美国公司的统计数据是不可接受的,特别是考虑到《华尔街日报》、麦肯锡、瑞信等机构发现的多元化、公平和包容性项目与公司业绩优异之间的强关联。42% 的美国人在工作中目睹或经历过种族主义。64% 的黑人员工表示,歧视是他们自己工作场所中的一个问题。许多有色人种甚至被完全挡在职场之外。一项对 1989 年至 2017 年数据进行的荟萃研究发现,平均而言,白人获得的面试回复比黑人高出 24%,比拉丁裔高出 36%。如果我们看看伯克希尔的高管团队,可以发现总部应该为其领导团队中的性别和种族多元化感到自豪。伯克希尔·哈撒韦总部存在的文化,似乎是一种能够招聘、雇用、晋升和留任多元化员工的文化。巴菲特先生强调文化的重要性及其对公司长期成功的价值。他说,“文化而非规则手册,决定了一个组织的行为方式。”投资者也在寻求保证,确保这种文化在伯克希尔·哈撒韦著名的各分散运营公司中也得到成功贯彻。为了让投资者了解其工作场所多元化状况,标普 100 指数成分股中有 87 家公司已发布或承诺发布其 EEO-1 表格,这是一份由政府强制规定的、按就业级别划分性别、种族和族裔的标准化会计报告。相比之下,在伯克希尔拥有的 60 多家公司中,只有一家公开发布了这份表格。仅仅一家公司。这不是巴菲特先生所著称的领导力。公司还必须分享关于多元化员工招聘、留任和晋升率的包容性数据,以便投资者全面了解不仅伯克希尔员工、也包括其投资组合公司员工的真实经历。董事会发布的信息不足以让投资者相信其在伯克希尔·哈撒韦各公司中关注多元化、公平性和包容性。我们鼓励即使在存在不完美的情况下也要保持透明度,以显示公司领导层切实致力于变革,并致力于吸引、留任和晋升最优秀的员工。谢谢。(掌声)
JAYLEN SPANNHello. My name is Jaylen Spann. I'm speaking on behalf of the nonprofit advocacy organization As You Sow, and Whistle Stop Capital. I formally move proposal number five, asking for Berkshire Hathaway to report on the outcomes of their diversity, equity and inclusion efforts by publishing quantitative data on their workforce composition and recruitment, retention, and promotion rates of employees by gender, race and ethnicity. Warren Buffett once mentioned that he had grown up with two sisters who, to quote Mr. Buffett, "are absolutely smart as I am and better personalities." He also bravely admitted that he only placed women on his board after his wife suggested it in 2003, 40 years after he started his company. It's one thing to know that people of all genders, races and ethnicities can contribute to Berkshire Hathaway. It is another thing entirely to intentionally and proactively create the space, opportunity, and training needed within a company for those people to be able to contribute without facing harassment and discrimination. In the absence of data, we must instead assume that Berkshire Hathaway Companies are no better nor any worse than any company in America. The statistics for American companies are unacceptable, particularly when we consider the strong link found by the Wall Street Journal, McKinsey, Credit Suisse, and others between diversity, equity and inclusion programs, and corporate outperformance. Forty-two percent of Americans have witnessed or experienced racism at work. Sixty-four percent of Black employees say that discrimination is an issue in their own workplace. Many people of color are barred from entering the workplace at all. A meta-study reviewing data from 1989 to 2017 found that on average whites received 24% more call-backs than Blacks, and 36% more call-backs than Latinos. If we take a look at Berkshire's executive team, we can see that headquarters should be proud of the gender and racial diversity present in its leadership team. The culture that exists at Berkshire Hathaway headquarters appears to be one that recruits, hires, promotes, and retains diverse employees. Mr. Buffett stresses the importance of culture and the value that it has on the long-term success of a company. He said that "Culture more than rule books determines how an organization behaves." Investors are looking for assurances that this culture is successfully implemented within the famously decentralized Berkshire Hathaway Companies as well. In order to allow their investors to understand their workplace diversity, 87 of the S&P 100 companies have released or have committed to releasing their EEO-1 form, which is a standardized, government-mandated accounting of gender, race, and ethnicity breakdown by employment levels. By contrast, of the more than 60 companies Berkshire owns, only one has publicly released this form. One company. This is not the leadership that Mr. Buffett is known for. The company's inclusion data on the hiring, retention, and promotion rates of diverse employees must also be shared for investors to have a full understanding of the actual experience of not only Berkshire's employees, but of its portfolio companies' employees as well. The board has released insufficient information to assure investors that it is attentive to diversity, equity and inclusion at Berkshire Hathaway Companies. We encourage transparency even in the face of imperfection in order to show that the company's leaders are truly committed to change and to attracting, retaining, and promoting the best possible employees. Thank you. (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特我当然同意你的说法,我妹妹们比我长得好看、更聪明,性格也更好。而且在 1930 年,她们和我一样,都有爱她们的父亲、母亲和老师。如果我生为女性、黑人,或是出生在其他许多国家,我根本不可能过上我现在享有的生活。但如果说,最高层的人相信什么,对我们子公司的行为方式很重要的话,那么,我们任何一家子公司的每一位负责人,肯定都知道我是怎么想的。他们也知道,他们自己负责各自的业务。而且我们认为,我们几乎每家公司都拥有出色的领导者。偶尔,我们显然也会发现自己犯了错。但如果有人认为我们应该替换掉任何一位业务负责人,我就是不认为那是正确的经营方式。我还要告诉你,免得以后有人再问这个问题,谈到我们的股东,又是以大约四比一或五比一的投票结果,伯克希尔公司的所有者们投出的票——忘掉 A 股或 B 股,你知道,基本上就是那些大基金,他们既担心外界怎么看他们,但也可能真就那么认为。谁知道人们是出于什么动机呢。有人说过,“动机”这个词永远不该用单数,因为我们真的不知道。但有一点是,你很难找到掌管大机构的人,你知道,会做出违背自身利益的事。这倒不是说他们一定是在为了自身利益行事。他们做事有很多原因。但这是一件,如果你能改变人们的这一点,将会对未来美国人产生更大助益的事。但你基本上改变不了。我的意思是,这关乎人们如何从根本上维护自身利益的行为模式。而四五十年前,他们的自身利益,基本上就是把美国企业界看作一个男孩俱乐部。现在这已经不被接受了,所以他们做出了改变。但在黑人问题上,他们改变的幅度却远没有那么显著。这就是我们社会所处的现状。但压倒性地,我们的多数股东不同意你的提议,尽管你给了他们表达意见的机会。那么,阿米克女士,你准备好的话,可以开始作报告了。
WARREN BUFFETTI certainly agree with you that my sisters were better looking, smarter, had better personalities. And in 1930, they had a father, mother and teachers who loved them like they loved me. And if I'd been born female, Black, in various other countries, I would not have had remotely the life I've enjoyed. But if what the people at the top believe is important in terms of how our subsidiaries behave, certainly there's everybody that runs any one of our subsidiaries knows how I feel. They also know that they're in charge of their own business. And that we think we've got great leaders in virtually every company we have. Every now and then, we find we've made a mistake obviously. But if the idea that we should replace any of the people that run the businesses, I just don't think that's the way to operate. And I will tell you, just so that the question doesn't come up later, in terms of our shareholders, by again a four or five to one vote, voters of the owners of the Berkshire Company, forgetting about A or B shares, you know, basically the big funds that are worried about what their perception is but also may well believe it. Who knows what people's motivations are. Somebody said that the word motivation should never be used in the singular, because we really don't know. But the one thing is that it's very hard to find people that are running big institutions that, you know, are acting against their self-interest. Now it doesn't mean they're acting for their self-interest necessarily. They're acting for a lot of reasons. But it's something that if you could change that in people, it would do a lot more for Americans in the future. But you basically can't change that. I mean, it's a situation of how people behave in protecting essentially their own interests. And their own interests 40 or 50 years ago was essentially to regard corporate America as a boys' club. And that's not acceptable anymore, so they changed. But they haven't changed as much by a substantial margin in relation to Blacks. And that's where we are as a society. But overwhelmingly, our shareholders don't agree with you, even though you gave them a chance to express their view on it. So Ms. Amick, when you're ready, you may give your report.
丽贝卡·阿米克我的报告已准备好。根据截至上周四晚间收到的代理委托书,代理持有人的投票情况为:赞成该动议 123,614 票,反对该动议 373,925 票。由于反对该动议的票数超过了就该事项正确投出的所有 A 类股和 B 类股总票数的多数,该动议未获通过。根据特拉华州法律的要求,投票精确计票结果的证明将交给秘书,附入本次会议记录。
REBECCA AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 123,614 votes for the motion and 373,925 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,阿米克女士。该动议未获通过。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Ms. Amick. Proposal failed. (Applause)
女声我提议本次会议休会。
FEMALE VOICEI move that this meeting be adjourned.
女声我附议休会动议。
FEMALE VOICEI second the motion to adjourn.