Wesco金融董事长致股东信,1993财年(查理·芒格)
WESCO FINANCIAL CORPORATION
致股东的信
致各位股东:
1993 日历年,合并“正常”经营净利润(即扣除下表中非常规项目前的利润)从上一年的 2250 万美元(每股 3.16 美元)降至 2038.2 万美元(每股 2.87 美元)。
合并净利润(即扣除下表中非常规项目后的利润)从上一年的 500.1 万美元(每股 0.70 美元)增至 1971.8 万美元(每股 2.77 美元)。
1993 年,Wesco 拥有三家主要子公司:Mutual Savings(该年度大部分时间从事帕萨迪纳的储蓄与贷款业务)、Wesco-Financial Insurance Company(总部位于奥马哈,主要从事再保险业务)以及 Precision Steel(总部位于芝加哥,从事钢材仓储及特种金属产品业务)。过去两年的合并净利润明细如下(除每股数据外,金额单位为千美元):
| 截至 1993 年 12 月 31 日年度 | 截至 1992 年 12 月 31 日年度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 金额 | 每股 | 金额 | 每股 | |
| “正常”经营净利润: | ||||
| Mutual Savings | $2,458 | $.35 | $3,746 | $.52 |
| Wesco-Financial Insurance 业务 | 12,434 | 1.75 | 13,146 | 1.85 |
| 其他“正常”经营净利润</br>Precision Steel 业务 | 2,189 | .31 | 2,075 | .29 |
| 3,301 | .46 | 3,533 | .50 | |
| 合计 | 20,382 | 2.87 | 22,500 | 3.16 |
| 销售有价证券净收益 | 1,156 | .16 | 147 | .02 |
| 销售止赎资产净亏损 | - | - | (146) | (.02) |
| 异常所得税费用 | (1,109) (3) | (.16) | (17,500) (4) | (2.46) |
| 处置 Mutual Savings 存款及部分贷款收益 | 906 | .13 | - | - |
| 处置 New America Electrical Corporation 约 80% 权益亏损 | (1,612) | (.23) | - | - |
| Wesco 合并净利润 | $19,718 | $2.77 | $5,001 | $.70 |
(1) 所有数字均为税后数据。
(3) 主要包括税率变动对持有有价权益证券未实现增值所产生递延所得税的影响。
WESCO FINANCIAL CORPORATION LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS To Our Shareholders: Consolidated "normal" net operating income (i.e., before irregularly occurring items shown in the table below) for the calendar year 1993 decreased to $20,382,000 ($2.87 per share) from $22,500,000 ($3.16 per share) in the previous year. Consolidated net income (i.e., after irregularly occurring items shown in the table below) increased to $19,718,000 ($2.77 per share) from $5,001,000 ($.70 per share) in the previous year. Wesco in 1993 had three major subsidiaries: Mutual Savings, engaged until late in the year in the savings and loan business in Pasadena, Wesco-Financial Insurance Company, headquartered in Omaha and engaged principally in the reinsurance business, and Precision Steel, headquartered in Chicago and engaged in the steel warehousing and specialty metal products businesses. Consolidated net income for the two years just ended breaks down as follows (in 000s except for per-share amounts) ''': Year Ended December 31, 1993 Per December 31, 1992 .. Amount Share Wesco Wesco Per Amount Share "Normal" net operating income of: Mutual Savings...... $ 2,458 $.35 $ 3,746 $ 52 Wesco-Financial Insurance business 12,434 1.75 13,146 1.85 All other "normal" net operating income 2) Precision Steel's businesses 2,189 .31 2,075 .29 20,382 3,301 .46 3,533 .50 2.87 22,500 3.16 Net gain on sales of marketable securities 1,156 .16 147 .02 Net loss on sales of foreclosed property .. - (146) (.02) Unusual income tax charges... (1,109) (3) (.16) (17,500) (4) (2.46) Gain on disposition of Mutual Savings' deposits and Loss on disposition of approximately 80% interest in some loans................. 906 .13 - - New America Electrical Corporation.... (1,61Z) 1.23) Wesco consolidated net income ...... $19,718 $2.77 $ 5,001 (1) All figures are net of income taxes. (3) Consists principally of effect of tax rate change on deferred tax on unrealized appreciation of marketable equity securities. 1
这份补充盈利明细与遵循标准会计惯例的经审计财务报表中所使用的明细有所不同。提供这份补充明细,是因为我们认为它对股东有用。
互助储蓄银行及其后继者
1993 年 10 月 8 日,互助储蓄银行完成了其先前与 CenFed 银行(“CENFED”)签订并宣布的合同所涵盖的销售。CENFED 是一家信誉卓著、同样总部位于帕萨迪纳的受保机构。选择这家买家来接管互助储蓄银行的营业场所,部分原因是它被认为有可能安全、良好地为储户服务。
在交易交割时,互助储蓄银行将导致其支付大量存款保险费的那部分负债(主要是受保存款负债)转让给了 CENFED,以换取继续作为一家高度受监管的储蓄与贷款协会。同时转让给 CENFED 的还有一些抵押贷款和大量现金,这些现金被承担的存款所抵消。
大约在同一时间,互助储蓄银行将某些问题资产转让给了一家新成立的西科金融子公司,该公司将对这部分资产进行缓慢清算。转让的资产包括:
(1) 互助储蓄银行目前销售缓慢的住宅房地产项目中未售出的剩余部分(账面价值 2310 万美元),该项目是为最大限度地收回位于加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉蒙特西托区大部分被止赎的海滨土地而设立的;加上
(2) 其他已止赎房地产,账面总价值为 820 万美元;加上
(3) 七笔有问题的首次住房抵押贷款,账面总价值为 190 万美元。
随后不久,因 CENFED 交易而不再受储蓄与贷款监管的互助储蓄银行,并入西科金融长期存在、位于奥马哈的保险子公司——西科金融保险有限公司(“Wes-FIC”),从而使得 Wes-FIC 得以延续互助储蓄银行的业务并继续持有其主要资产。因与 Wes-FIC 合并而随之转移的资产主要包括:4580 万美元(账面价值)的高质量抵押贷款支持证券,以及 720 万股联邦住宅贷款抵押公司(“房地美”)股票,其成本为 7170 万美元,市值为 3.591 亿美元(基于 1993 年底房地美股票在纽约证券交易所 49.87 美元的报价)。
因此,1993 年是西科金融将报告储蓄与贷款业务任何盈利的最后一年。从 1994 年及以后,原先所有来自储蓄与贷款业务的盈利能力,将大致全部增加如今净资产已大幅扩大的西科金融子公司 Wes-FIC 的已报告业绩。
This supplementary breakdown of earnings differs somewhat from that used in audited financial statements which follow standard accounting convention. The supplementary breakdown is furnished because it is considered useful to shareholders. Mutual Savings and its Successors On October 8, 1993, Mutual Savings closed the sale covered by its contract, previously made and announced, with CenFed Bank ("CENFED"), a highly re- garded, insured institution aiso headquartered in Pasadena. In part, this buyer had been chosen to take over Mutual Savings' offices because it was considered likely to serve depositors safely and well. In the closing of the transaction, Mutual Savings transferred to CENFED that part of Mutual Savings' liabilities (principally insured deposit liabilities) which was causing Mutual Savings to pay substantial deposit-insurance premiums in exchange for remaining a highly regulated savings and loan association. Also transferred to CENFED were some mortgage loans and a large amount of cash offset by deposits assumed. At roughly the same time, Mutual Savings transferred certain troubled assets to a newly organized Wesco subsidiary that will conduct a slow liquidation of those assets. The transferred assets were: (1) the unsold residue (with a book value of $23.1 million) of Mutual Savings' now-slow-selling residential real estate project, created in an attempt to maximize proceeds from foreclosed mostly-seaside land in the Montecito dis- trict of Santa Barbara, California, plus (2) other foreclosed real estate with an aggregate book value of $8.2 million, plus (3) seven troubled first mortgage loans on houses, with an aggregate book value of $1.9 million. Then, a little later, Mutual Savings, now removed by the CENFED transaction from savings and loan regulation, merged into Wesco's long-existing Omaha-domiciled insurance subsidiary, Wesco-Financial Insurance Company ("Wes-FIC"), thus caus- ing continuation of Mutual Savings' business and continued business holding of its main assets by Wes-FIC. Assets thus transferred incident to the merger with Wes-FIC consisted mostly of $45.8 million (at book value) in high quality mortgage-backed securities plus 7.2 million shares of Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation ("Freddie Mac" ) with a cost of $71.7 million and a market value of $359.1 million (based on the 1993 yearend NYSE quotation of $49.87 per Freddie Mac share). Accordingly, 1993 was the last year in which Wesco will report any earnings from the savings and loan business. In 1994 and thereafter roughly all former savings and loan business earning power will augment reported results of Wesco's Wes-FIC subsidiary, now greatly enlarged in net worth. 2
如收入来源表所示,互惠储蓄银行在其最后一年表现尚可,为正常净经营收入贡献了 250 万美元,较 1992 年的 370 万美元下降 34%。第四季度对互惠储蓄银行蒙特西托住宅房地产项目的剩余资产进行了 200 万美元的税前减记,这几乎是 1993 年收入下降的全部原因。
此外,互惠储蓄银行与 CENFED 的交易实现了 90.6 万美元(合西科每股 0.13 美元)的税后收益。作为这笔交易的一部分,西科以市场利率向 CENFED 的母公司提供了一笔为期三年、金额为 400 万美元的贷款,并作出了一些贷款质量担保。同时,CENFED 以市场租金水平向西科租赁了其保留建筑内原由互惠储蓄银行使用的底层空间,该建筑以前名为“互惠储蓄银行大厦”,现根据租约条款更名为“CENFED 银行大厦”。后来,这栋建筑被西科转让给其在加利福尼亚州新成立的房地产子公司。
这栋拥有新名称的建筑,出现在本年度报告扉页的照片中。(我们曾为那张使用了多年的旧照片感到自豪,以至于其中所有汽车型号最终都从地球上消失了,但在储蓄与贷款牌照如同那些汽车型号一样从舞台上消失后,我们最终拍摄了一张新照片。)
因为所有失败和缺陷都应在年报中得到额外关注,我们在此第二次声明,并非只有 Wes-FIC 继承了互惠储蓄银行以前的资产。如上所述,西科现在有了一家新的房地产子公司,而它基本上并不想要这家公司。这家名为 MS 物业公司的子公司,今后将(1)持有并运营西科位于加利福尼亚州帕萨迪纳的办公和停车物业,以及(2)如上所述,清算那些既未转让给 CENFED、也未在互惠储蓄银行并入 Wes-FIC 时留在其内的、账面价值为 3320 万美元(按 1993 年底账面价值计算)的资产。清算这部分业务将在不利于清算的环境中进行。加利福尼亚州的房地产崩盘并非小崩盘,它已经对资产价值造成了巨大损失。我们最好的猜测是,西科最终将(缓慢地)从 MS 物业公司的所有房地产资产组合中,实现(1)高于当前账面价值,但(2)低于当前账面价值加上税后市场利率的数额。
总体而言,房地产持有乃至房地产开发,当以公众持股的公司形式进行并需缴纳公司所得税时,其为股东创造良好回报的记录非常糟糕。之所以如此,是因为在这个房地产游戏中,大部分市场价值是由那些不缴纳公司所得税的人(其中许多人几乎根本不缴税)参与的交易来设定的,而这一游戏通常并不足够有利可图,无法为那些因公司税负而处于劣势的参与者创造体面回报。对于西科股东目前承担的这份普遍存在的投资劣势,我们没有解药。
那些想知道为什么过去的遗留房地产资产现在会困扰西科未来一小部分前景的股东,在评估管理层时不会感到安慰。回顾过去,似乎(1)部分麻烦——来自不良贷款质量——是因为作者当时关注不够,以及(2)即使在更投入的方法下也效果不佳,因为麻烦——来自蒙特西托滞销的住宅房地产项目——是因为作者付出了过多的精力和关注,甚至在该项目中为自己建造了一栋个人房屋,其现值远低于他当时支付的现金,而这笔现金很大一部分是以互惠储蓄银行非常乐意再次看到的固定价格条件支付给它的。
然而,作者并不想过分自责。综合权衡,互惠储蓄银行的记录并不算太差,而其蒙特西托项目有朝一日将被视为一个独特的、极其值得称道的小众场所,为其创造者增光。此外,在作者看来,任何有耐心的买家中现在在那里购买自住房,几乎肯定会获得相当不错的回报。因此,特此邀请每一位有意成为蒙特西托住宅使用者的西科股东考虑参与我们的项目。
现在,应该对互惠储蓄银行作最后一句悼词。许多西科股东持有西科股票的所得税成本基础仅为每股几美分(或更少),并且与受尊敬的创始人有关联。他们现在拥有的西科股票的全部价值,最终都来自那个由这些创始人在很久以前、艰难的 20 世纪 30 年代经济气候下维持下来的小型储蓄与贷款协会。在这种情况下,加之对这些创始人曾为加利福尼亚住房做出诸多服务的骄傲回忆,这些股东心中难免有些遗憾,甚至对于像伯克希尔·哈撒韦这样后来加入的股东也是如此。但我们不为改变方向而道歉。在我们看来,低成本且不支付存款保险费的房地美(Freddie Mac),其业务远优于西科在其高度监管的储蓄与贷款业务中所拥有的业务,而西科将互惠储蓄银行的资产和动力部署到更好的房地美业务中是合乎逻辑的做法。
精密钢业
西科旗下精密钢业子公司,总部位于伊利诺伊州芝加哥郊外的富兰克林公园,1993 年贡献了 218.9 万美元的正常净经营收入,而 1992 年为 207.5 万美元。销售额从 5804.8 万美元增至 6012.7 万美元。
在戴维·希尔斯特罗姆的娴熟领导下,精密钢业 1993 年的业务继续为所用资源提供了良好的回报。
西科金融保险公司(“Wes-FIC”)
Wes-FIC 1993 年的正常净收入为 1243.4 万美元,较 1992 年的 1314.6 万美元略有下降。
截至 1993 年底,Wes-FIC 保留了约 3930 万美元的已投资资产,并以其与 Fireman's Fund 集团前再保险安排下的索赔准备金作为抵消。该安排于 1989 年 8 月 31 日终止。然而,所有索赔完全结清还需要很长时间,与此同时,Wes-FIC 多年来一直受益于投资“浮存金”所得的收益。
如去年所述,Wes-FIC 于 1992 年与伯克希尔·哈撒韦(西科的最终母公司)的全资子公司——国民赔偿公司(“NICO”)签订了另一项再保险安排,据此,NICO 将其承保的部分个人险种再保险的 50% 转分保给 Wes-FIC。这一安排几乎构成了 Wes-FIC 1993 年全部 1220 万美元的已赚保费。然而,该安排于 1993 年终止,因为原始再保险来源停止向 NICO 进行分保。
在去年的年报中,我们告知股东,Wes-FIC 计划通过伯克希尔·哈撒韦转分保的再保险,于 1993 年底或 1994 年进入巨灾再保险(“超级巨灾”)业务。这将发生在 Wes-FIC 的净资产和理赔支付能力因提议的合并(现已完成)——将西科前储蓄与贷款子公司并入 Wes-FIC——而得到大幅增强之后。
超级巨灾再保险业务当时看来对 Wes-FIC 是一个非常合乎逻辑的业务。毕竟,相对于每年赚取的保费,Wes-FIC 将拥有庞大的净资产。而这正是任何计划成为“独立”再保险人、覆盖其无法安全转嫁给其他在大型超级巨灾发生时确定仍具偿付能力的公司的超级巨灾风险的保险公司,所理性需要的条件。这样一个“独立”的再保险人必须像一座诺克斯堡,随时准备(偶尔)在无需向其他再保险人求助的情况下,在单一年份支付超过其保费收入数倍的赔款,以覆盖比安德鲁飓风更严重的超级巨灾造成的损失。简而言之,它需要一个非常类似于 Wes-FIC 的资产负债表。
不幸的是,在西科 1992 年年报发布后,随着 1993 年的推进,其他再保险人越来越快地涌入超级巨灾领域。结果是,NICO 能够以看似合理的价格获得的超级巨灾再保险业务量大幅减少。
在这种情况下,由于 NICO 可接受的超级巨灾业务短缺,我们后来(在第三季度报告中)告诉股东,NICO 可能没有多余的超级巨灾再保险业务可以分给 Wes-FIC。
关于 NICO 向 Wes-FIC 转分保超级巨灾再保险的事宜,根据事态发展的性质,拥有 NICO 100% 股权和 Wesco 及 Wes-FIC 各 80% 股权的伯克希尔·哈撒韦,出于非慈善原因,通常不会将其认为理想且仅在低于伯克希尔·哈撒韦自身按所提供条款想保留的业务量时才可获得的再保险业务转分给 Wes-FIC。相反,转分保只会偶尔发生,在有限条件下,并向伯克希尔·哈撒韦提供某种补偿。此类转分保通常仅在以下情况发生:(1)伯克希尔·哈撒韦出于某种原因(通常是整体风险限制政策)希望降低业务量,而所提供条款下的业务量过多;(2)Wes-FIC 具备足够的能力来承担所承担的风险;以及(3)Wes-FIC 支付一笔公允的分保手续费,用于覆盖获取和管理保险业务的部分成本。
一般而言,伯克希尔·哈撒韦在与部分持股的子公司打交道时,会试图稍微倾向对方,以遵守卡多佐大法官所谓的“最为敏感荣誉的细节”,但不能指望它向 Wes-FIC 这样的部分持股子公司进行重大而明显的利益输送。
鉴于伯克希尔·哈撒韦不愿向 Wes-FIC 进行明显的利益输送,以及 1993 年超级巨灾再保险市场机会的减少,直到最近之前,我们似乎在 1993 年第三季度报告中关于 Wes-FIC 近期获得转分保超级巨灾再保险前景不佳的预测是正确的。但人类的预测何其不可靠!1994 年 2 月,NICO 向 Wes-FIC 提供了参与四份非常特殊的超级巨灾再保险合同的机会。考虑到其对相同风险的其他敞口,NICO 愿意将当时每份合同下可供 NICO 承保的 20% 转分给 Wes-FIC,作为回报收取相当于 Wes-FIC 将收取保费 3% 的分保手续费。剩余 80% 的风险由 NICO 自留。稍后,第五项转分保被提供:一份最大损失额为 5000 万美元的一年期 NICO 财产损失合同的 10%。年保费为最大可能损失的 5%。
Wes-FIC 立即接受了 NICO 提供的所有这些五项不寻常的超级巨灾再保险参与份额。
因此,在前四份合同中,Wes-FIC 在一年内总体面临约 400 万美元的税前盈利或约 2000 万美元的税前亏损。此外,由于其中少部分保险是以“事故发生”为基础承保的责任保险,Wes-FIC 和 NICO 在这四份合同结束后多年,存在出现巨大“长尾”损失的轻微可能性。这并非 Wes-FIC 第一次承担此类“长尾”风险。还应当记住,Wes-FIC 与 Fireman's Fund 集团早已终止的再保险安排,也可能在多年后产生涉及类似巨大“长尾”损失的意外情况。Wes-FIC,无论过去还是现在,只要其资本充足程度远高于其他更受动物精神和机构惯性影响的保险公司,就愿意在经过仔细权衡获利前景后,承担此类“长尾”风险。
在 NICO 向 Wes-FIC 转分保的第五项超级巨灾合同中,该合同仅覆盖财产损失,没有出现意外“长尾”损失的可能性。然而,在承保年度内,Wes-FIC 有极小的可能性会遭受 500 万美元的税前损失,而它最多只能获得 25 万美元,再减去 3%,使 Wes-FIC 的净收益为税前 24.25 万美元。
不言而喻,NICO 不认为,多年承保大量类似其已部分转分给 Wes-FIC 的五项新合同的超级巨灾再保险业务,其预期的年平均损失会像每年收取的保费那样高。但这种超级巨灾再保险,和其他超级巨灾再保险一样,不适合胆小者。年度业绩的巨大波动,以及一些非常糟糕的年份,是不可避免的。
但恰恰是这些糟糕的可能性(以及它们在个别年份造成的巨大且令人尴尬的不利后果)与超级巨灾业务在本质上的关联,使得 Wes-FIC 喜欢以这种方式参与超级巨灾业务。超级巨灾再保险的买家(特别是明智的买家)通常希望与伯克希尔·哈撒韦的全资子公司打交道(因为它们拥有最高可能的信用评级和可靠的公司特质),而不是与其他不那么谨慎、坦率和资金充足的再保险人打交道。而许多竞争的超级巨灾再保险卖方则寻求获得丰厚的“中介”利润,但这很难实现,因为他们必须找到一个“转分保”卖方,既要(1)足够聪明,以确保自身保持强大到足以支付可能的损失,又要(2)对成本如此漫不经心,以至于不介意由某个不愿保留任何重大风险的中介实体赚取丰厚的利润。因此,可以有理由预期,现有的市场力量将为资金充足、纪律严明的决策者带来可接受的长期结果,尽管在某些年份会出现可怕的损失,而在其他年份业务机会受到限制。再次,我们想重复,我们期望可接受的长期结果。我们看不到暴利的机会。
还应指出,Wes-FIC 在与 NICO 最近的安排中,通过利用伯克希尔·哈撒韦更好的信用评级和总体声誉,获得了一项特殊的业务获取优势。在所有这些情况下,3% 的分保手续费对 Wes-FIC 而言似乎非常公平。显而易见,伯克希尔·哈撒韦绝不会向伯克希尔·哈撒韦关联集团以外的任何其他实体提供如此优厚的条款。
最后,关于 Wes-FIC 的超级巨灾再保险获取机制的一个重要说明。当伯克希尔·哈撒韦的保险子公司提供再保险转分保时,让加利福尼亚州的人员为 Wes-FIC 做出复杂的接受或拒绝决定是不切实际的。但幸运的是,作者非常钦佩和信任最初做出业务获取决策的伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团高管,他们将“自食其果”。在这种情况下,根据作者的建议,西科和 Wes-FIC 的董事会简单地批准了,由一家或多家伯克希尔·哈撒韦全资子公司向 Wes-FIC 提供的自动再保险转分保。每项转分保将由 Wes-FIC 在内布拉斯加州的代理人立即以书面形式接受,这些代理人同时又是伯克希尔·哈撒韦全资子公司的受薪雇员。此外,每项转分保将按保费的 3% 支付分保手续费。最后,必须满足两个条件:(1)Wes-FIC 必须获得 20% 或以下的风险(在考虑分保手续费影响之前);(2)伯克希尔·哈撒韦的全资子公司必须自留至少 80% 的相同风险(同样,不考虑分保手续费的影响)。
As the table showing sources of income indicates, Mutual Savings got creditably through its last year, contributing $2.5 million to normal net operating income, down 34% from $3.7 million in 1992. A $2.0 million pre-tax writedown in the fourth quarter of the residue of Mutual Savings' Montecito residential real estate project caused almost all of the 1993 reduction in income. In addition, an after-tax gain of $906,000 ($.13 per Wesco share) was realized in the transaction between Mutual Savings and CENFED. As part of this transaction Wesco loaned CENFED's parent corporation $4 million for three years at a market rate of interest and made some guarantees of loan quality. Also, CENFED leased from Wesco for 15 years at a market rental rate the groundfloor space formerly occupied by Mutual Savings in Wesco's retained building, formerly named the "Mutual Savings Building" and now renamed the "CenFed Bank Building" pursuant to terms of the lease. And, later, the building was transferred by Wesco to its new California real estate subsidiary. The building, with its new name, is shown in the photograph at the front of this annual report. (We were proud of the economical old photograph, used succes- sively over so many years that all the automobile models therein had eventually disappeared from the earth, but we finally shot a new photograph after the savings and loan charter, as well as the automobile models, had vanished from the scene.) Because all failures and faults deserve extra attention in annual reports, we hereby state for the second time that it is not only Wes-FIC which has succeeded to former assets of Mutual Savings. As indicated above, Wesco now has a new real estate subsidiary that, mostly, it does not want. The subsidiary, named MS Property Company, will hereafter both (1) hold and operate Wesco's office and parking property in Pasadena, California and (2), as we said above, liquidate the $33.2 mil- lion (at yearend 1993 book value) of assets neither transferred to CENFED nor left in Mutual Savings when it was merged into Wes-FIC. The liquidation part of the game will occur in a poor climate for liquidations. The California real estate crash has been no small crash, and it has taken a large toll on values. Our best guess is that Wesco will eventually (and slowly) realize, from all real estate assets of MS Property Company combined, (1) more than present book value but (2) less than present book value plus a market rate of interest, after corporate taxes. Generally, real estate holding, and even real estate development, when con- ducted in publicly held corporate form, subject to corporate income taxes, has a very poor record for serving shareholders well. This occurs because the real estate game, in which most market values are set in transactions involving people who are not paying corporate income taxes and many of whom pay virtually no taxes at all, is not ordinarily lucrative enough to create a decent return for persons in the same game, disadvantaged by a level of corporate taxes. We have no antidote for the share of this general investment disadvantage now being borne by Wesco shareholders. Shareholders who wonder why tag-end real estate assets from the past should now bedevil a small percentage of Wesco's future will not find the experience reassuring as they appraise management. In retrospect, it appears (1) that some 3 troubles — from poor loan quality — came because the writer was not paying enough attention and (2) that a more devoted approach didn't work very well either as troubles - from the slow-selling residential real estate project in Montecito - came because the writer gave too much effort and attention, even going so far as to create in the project a personal house now worth considerably less than he paid for it in cash, much of which went to Mutual Savings under firm-price conditions it would very much like to see again. However, the writer does not wish to go too far in wearing a hair shirt. All things weighed, Mutual Savings' record was not so bad, and its Montecito project will some years hence be recognized as a minor, one-of-a-kind, extremely creditable place, reflecting well on its creators. Moreover, it seems to the writer that any patient person who now buys a needed residence therein is virtually sure to come out quite well. Accordingly, every Wesco shareholder who is a prospective user of a Mon- tecito residence is hereby invited to consider buying into our project. A last word on Mutual Savings is now appropriate in requiem. Many Wesco shareholders have an income tax basis of only a few pennies (or less) per Wesco share and are related to respected founders. All the value they now own in their Wesco shares has eventually come from a tiny savings and loan association carried through a tough 1930s economic climate by these founders, long ago. Under such circumstances, heightened by a prideful remembrance of much service to California housing, some tinge of regret is inevitable for these shareholders and, indeed, even for shareholders like Berkshire Hathaway that came in much later. But we make no apology for changing course. In our view, Freddie Mac, which has low costs and pays no deposit insurance premiums, is a much better business than Wesco had in its heavily regulated savings and loan operation, and Wesco did the logical thing as it deployed Mutual Savings' assets and momentum to the better Freddie Mac business. Precision Steel The businesses of Wesco's Precision Steel subsidiary, headquartered in the outskirts of Chicago at Franklin Park, Illinois, contributed $2,189,000 to normal net operating income in 1993, compared with $2,075,000 in 1992. Sales increased from $58,048,000 to $60,127,000. Under the skilled leadership of David Hillstrom, Precision Steel's businesses in 1993 continued to provide a fine return on resources employed. Wesco-Financial Insurance Company ("Wes-FIC") Wes-FIC's normal net income for 1993 was $12,434,000, down slightly from $13,146,000 for 1992. At the end of 1993 Wes-FIC retained about $39.3 million in invested assets, offset by claims reserves, from its former reinsurance arrangement with Fireman's Fund Group. This arrangement was terminated August 31, 1989. However, it will take a long time before all claims are settled, and, meanwhile, Wes-FIC is being helped over many years by proceeds from investing "float." As reported last year, Wes-FIC in 1992 entered into another reinsurance arrangement with National Indemnity Company ("NICO"'), a wholly owned subsidi- ary of Berkshire Hathaway, Wesco's ultimate parent, whereby NICO retroceded to Wes-FIC 50% of certain personal lines reinsurance it had assumed. This arrangement was responsible for almost the entire $12.2 million of Wes-FIC's earned premiums for 1993. However, it terminated during 1993 because the original source of the reinsurance stopped making cessions to NICO. In last year's annual report we informed shareholders that Wes-FIC planned, through reinsurance to be retroceded by Berkshire Hathaway, to enter the business of super-catastrophe ("super-cat") reinsurance in late 1993 or 1994. This would occur after Wes-FIC's net worth and claims-paying capacity had been greatly augmented by the proposed merger (which has now happened) of Wesco's former savings and loan subsidiary into Wes-FIC. The super-cat reinsurance business then seemed a very logical business for Wes- FIC. After all, Wes-FIC would have a large net worth in relation to annual premiums being earned. And this is exactly the condition rationally required for any insurance company planning to become a "stand alone" reinsurer covering super-catastrophe risks it can't safely pass on to others sure to remain solvent if a large super- catastrophe comes. Such a "stand alone" reinsurer must be a kind of Fort Knox, prepared occasionally, without calling on any other reinsurers for help, to pay out in a single year many times more than premiums coming in, as it covers losses from some super catastrophe worse than Hurricane Andrew. In short, it needs a balance sheet a lot like Wes-FIC's. Unfortunately, after issuance of Wesco's 1992 Annual Report, other reinsurers, as 1993 progressed, hurried more and more into the super-cat field. As a conse- quence, volumes of super-cat reinsurance business available to NICO at prices that seemed rational were greatly reduced Under such circumstances of shortage at NICO of acceptable super-cat busi- ness, we later told shareholders (in the third quarter report) that NICO would probably have no surplus super-cat reinsurance business to cede to Wes-FIC. In connection with the retrocessions of super-cat reinsurance from NICO to Wes-FIC the nature of the situation as it has evolved is such that Berkshire Hathaway, owning 100% of NICO and only 80% of Wesco and Wes-FIC, is not, for some philanthropic reason, ordinarily going to retrocede to Wes-FIC any reinsurance business that Berkshire Hathaway considers desirable and that is available only in amounts below what Berkshire Hathaway wants for itself on the terms offered. Instead, retrocessions will occur only occasionally, under limited conditions and with some compensation to Berkshire Hathaway. Such retrocessions will ordinarily happen only (1) when Berkshire Hathaway, for some reason (usually a policy of overall risk limitation) desires lower amounts of business than are available on the 5 terms offered and (2) Wes-FIC has adequate capacity to bear the risk assumed and (3) Wes-FIC pays a fair ceding commission designed to cover part of the cost of getting and managing insurance business. Generally, Berkshire Hathaway, in dealing with partly owned subsidiaries, tries to lean over a little backward in an attempt to observe what Justice Cardozo called "the punctilio of an honor the most sensitive," but it cannot be expected to make large and plain giveaways of Berkshire Hathaway assets or business to a partially owned subsidiary like Wes-FIC. Given Berkshire Hathaway's unwillingness to make plain giveaways to Wes-FIC and the 1993 reductions in opportunities in the super-cat reinsurance market, it appeared until very recently that we were right in the 1993 third quarter report in projecting poor prospects over the near term for Wes-FIC's acquisition of retroceded super-cat reinsurance. But what are the predictions of man! In February 1994, Wes- FIC was offered by NICO participations in four very unusual super-cat reinsurance contracts. Considering its other exposures to the same risks, NICO was willing to retrocede to Wes-FIC 20% of what was then available to NICO under each contract in return for a ceding commission amounting to 3% of Wes-FIC's premiums to be received. The remaining 80% of the risk was to be retained by NICO. A little later, a fifth retrocession was offered: 10% of a one-year NICO property loss contract with a maximum loss amount of $50 million. The annual premium is 5% of the maximum possible loss. Wes-FIC promptly accepted all of these five unusual super-cat reinsurance participations offered by NICO. In the first four contracts, in aggregate, Wes-FIC thus became exposed, during a single year, to either winning about $4 million pre-tax or losing about $20 million pre-tax. In addition, there is some slight possibility of a huge "long tail" loss for Wes- FIC and NICO many years after the four contracts end, because a minority part of the insurance is liability insurance written on an "occurrence" basis. This is not the first time such "long tail" risks have been accepted by Wes-FIC. There are also, it should be remembered, possibilities for unpleasant surprises involving similar possible large "long tail" losses, many years hence, from Wes-FIC's long-terminated reinsurance arrangement with Fireman's Fund Group. Wes-FIC, now as then, is willing to run such "long tail" risks, carefully weighed against prospects for gain, provided it is much better capitalized than other insurance companies more influenced by animal spirits and institutional momentums. In the fifth super-cat retrocession to Wes-FIC from NICO, which covers only property loss, there is no possibility of a surprising "long tail" loss. However, for the year covered, Wes-FIC has a very small chance of losing $5 million pre-tax, while it can gain only $250,000, less 3%, leaving Wes-FIC's net proceeds $242,500, pre-tax. Needless to say, NICO does not believe that the average yearly loss to be expected from writing over many years a great series of super-cat reinsurance contracts like the five new ones it has retroceded in part to Wes-FIC would be as high as the one-year premiums to be received. But such super-cat reinsurance, like other super-cat reinsurance, is not for the faint of heart. A huge variation in annual results, with some very unpleasant years, is inevitable. But it is precisely what must, in the nature of things, be associated with these bad possibilities, with their huge and embarrassing adverse consequences in occa- sional years, that makes Wes-FIC like its way of being in the super-cat business. Buyers (particularly wise buyers) of super-cat reinsurance often want to deal with wholly owned Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries (possessing as they do the highest possible credit ratings and a reliable corporate personality) instead of other reinsur- ers less cautious, straightforward and well endowed. And many competing sellers of super-cat reinsurance are looking for a liberal "intermediary's" profit, hard to get because they must find a "layoff" seller both (1) so smart that it is sure to stay strong enough to pay possible losses yet (2) so casual about costs that it is not much bothered by a liberal profit earned by some intermediary entity not willing to retain any significant risk. Thus the forces in place can rationally be expected to cause acceptable long-term results for well-financed, disciplined decision makers, despite horrible losses in some years and other years of restricted opportunity to write business. And, again, we wish to repeat that we expect acceptable long-term results. We see no possibility for bonanza. It should also be noted that Wes-FIC, in the arrangements recently made with NICO, receives a special business-acquisition advantage from using Berkshire Hathaway's better credit rating and general reputation. Under all the circumstances, a 3% ceding commission seems more than fair to Wes-FIC. Certainly and obviously, Berkshire Hathaway would not offer terms so good to any other entity outside the Berkshire Hathaway affiliated group. Finally, an important word about Wes-FIC's super-cat-reinsurance-acquisition mechanics. It is impractical to have people in California make complex accept-or- reject decisions for Wes-FIC when retrocessions of reinsurance are offered by Berkshire Hathaway insurance subsidiaries. But, happily, the Berkshire Hathaway insurance group executives making original business-acquisition decisions are greatly admired and trusted by the writer and will be "eating their own cooking." Under such circumstances, Wesco's and Wes-FIC's boards of directors, on the writer's recommendation, have simply approved automatic retrocessions of reinsurance to Wes-FIC as offered by one or more wholly owned Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries. Each retrocession is to be accepted forthwith in writing in Nebraska by agents of Wes-FIC who are at the same time salaried employees of wholly owned subsidiaries of Berkshire Hathaway. Moreover, each retrocession will be made at a 3%-of- premiums ceding commission. Finally, two conditions must be satisfied: (1) Wes- FIC must get 20% or less of the risk (before taking into account effects from the ceding commission) and (2) wholly owned Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries must retain at least 80% of the identical risk (again, without taking into account effects from the ceding commission). 7
我们通常不会向西科股东详细描述个别的巨灾再保险合同,那会损害我们的竞争利益。不过,我们会像上面那样,尽量合理地做概括说明。今后西科金融还能不能通过伯克希尔·哈撒韦的子公司,按照上述方式和自动程序获得更多再保险?这个嘛,我们已经被证明不善于预测。只能说我们希望如此,而且,如果巨灾险购买方是理性的,那么更多再保险应该会来,尽管来得不规律、间隔时间长。
我们还考察了其他可能的保险承保机会,甚至包括收购保险公司,不涉及伯克希尔·哈撒韦。
西科金融现在是一家实力非常雄厚的保险公司,成本极低,不管怎样,未来也会像过去一样,我们预期能继续找到并抓住至少几个明智的保险机会。
其他“常规”净经营收入
所有其他“常规”净经营收入,扣除利息支出和一般公司费用后,从 1992 年的 353.3 万美元降至 1993 年的 330.1 万美元。收入来源包括:(1)西科位于帕萨迪纳的办公楼物业的租金(毛租金 284.8 万美元,不包括来自 Mutual Savings 的租金,该物业主要租给外部租户,CENFED 是新的一楼租户);(2)储蓄和贷款及保险子公司以外持有的现金等价物和有价证券的利息和股息;(3)新美洲电气公司在出售前的经营成果。
证券出售净收益
西科证券出售的合计净收益(税后)从 1992 年的 14.7 万美元增加到 1993 年的 115.6 万美元。
可转换优先股持股
截至 1993 年底,西科及其子公司持有成本为 1.35 亿美元的可转换优先股,所有这些股票均要求在购买之日起十年左右内按面值赎回:
| 证券 | 股息率 | 面值持有量 | 普通股价格 12/31/93 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 所罗门公司 | 9.00% | 1 亿美元 | $38.00 |
| 全美航空集团 | 9.25% | 1200 万美元 | $47.63 |
| 冠军国际公司 | 9.25% | 2300 万美元 | $33.38 |
这些优先股是在西科的母公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦以相同每股价格额外购买同一批股票的同时购入的。
We will not ordinarily describe individual super-cat reinsurance contracts in full detail to Wesco shareholders. That would be contrary to our competitive interest. Instead, we will try to summarize reasonably, more or less as we have done here. Will more reinsurance be later available to Wes-FIC through Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries on the basis and using the automatic procedure we have above described? Well, we have already proved poor prognosticators. We can only say that we hope so and that more reinsurance should come, albeit irregularly and with long intermissions, if buyers of super-cat coverage are rational. We have also examined other possible insurance-writing opportunities, and even insurance company acquisitions, not involving Berkshire Hathaway. Wes-FIC is now a very strong insurance company, with very low costs, and, one way or another, in the future as in the past, we expect to continue to find and seize at least a few sensible insurance opportunities. All Other "Normal" Net Operating Income All other "normal net operating income, net of interest paid and general corporate expenses, decreased to $3,301,000 in 1993 from $3,533,000 in 1992. Sources were (1) rents ($2,848,000 gross, excluding rent from Mutual Savings) from Wesco's Pasadena office property (predominantly leased to outsiders and with CENFED as the new ground floor tenant), (2) interest and dividends from cash equivalents and marketable securities held outside the savings and loan and insur- disposition. ance subsidiaries, and (3) results from New America Electrical Corporation until its Net Gains on Sales of Securities Wesco's aggregate net gains on sales of securities, combined, after income taxes, increased to $1,156,000 in 1993 from $147,000 in 1992. Convertible Preferred Stockholdings At the end of 1993, Wesco and its subsidiaries owned $135 million, at cost, in convertible preferred stocks, all requiring redemption at par value within ten years or so from date of acquisition: Preferred Can which Paice Marmoke Dividend Par Value Common Stock Security Rate Holding Common Stock 12/31/93 Salomon Inc............ USAir Group, Inc. ........... ."...• 9.00% $100 Million $38.00 $47.63 Champion International Corporation.......... .... 9.25% 9.25% 12 Million 38.74 23 Million 12.88 38.00 33.38 These preferred stocks were purchased at the same time Wesco's parent corporation, Berkshire Hathaway, purchased additional amounts of the same stocks at the same price per share. 8
过去几年,我们把这些可转换优先股投资描述为“稳健但乏味”,并指出“几乎没有一个投资者是靠投资大型公司的可转换优先股发大财的”。我们的想法没变。但总体而言,截至 1993 年底,我们持有的这些投资市值已高于我们的买入成本。我们估算:(1)所罗门兄弟的 1 亿美元投资,市值比买入成本高出约 25%;(2)全美航空的 1200 万美元投资,市值比买入成本低约 25%;(3)冠军国际的 2300 万美元投资,市值比买入成本高出约 5%。把这些数字加在一起,截至 1993 年底,税前净增值为 2310 万美元。
新美电公司(New America Electric)
1993 年,离开我们公司版图的不仅仅是西科金融的储蓄贷款业务。自 1988 年以来西科金融持股约 80% 的新美电公司,去年把它的业务卖给了一家历史悠久、品质优良、从事类似业务的中西部公司。1993 年,在出售业务之前的六个月里,西科金融承担的净亏损份额是 19.2 万美元,而在最终处置其权益时,西科金融又额外实现了 160 万美元的税后亏损(合每股西科金融股票 0.23 美元)。
出售决定完全是由新美电公司的首席执行官兼 20% 股权持有人格伦·米切尔做出的。在忍受了多年自 1930 年代以来最糟糕的商业环境(他通过几次痛苦的裁员才挺了过来)之后,他不想再等待商业建筑市场最终好转。西科金融进入电气设备领域的时机选择如此糟糕,完全是笔者误判的结果——这源于笔者一种强烈且近乎终生的偏好,即倾向于从商业和人的品质来预测相对后果,而不去尝试预测商业周期。
考虑到我们后来遭遇的极为恶劣的商业环境,格伦·米切尔始终把新美电公司的业务经营得非常出色。正是他的投入和技能,才让我们没有亏损更多。是笔者给西科金融造成了损失,而不是格伦·米切尔。
合并资产负债表及相关讨论
如所附财务报表所示,按照会计师们依据其惯例计算,西科金融的净资产从 1992 年底的 4.117 亿美元增至 1993 年底的 6.261 亿美元。
报告的净资产增加只有很小一部分(1300 万美元)来自 1993 年扣除已支付股息后的留存收益。1993 年净资产的其余增加额几乎全部源于会计上的特殊处理,没有实际经济意义,因为:(1)在 1993 年之前,只有西科金融旗下 Wes-FIC 保险子公司的权益证券未实现增值(扣除了假设出售这些证券时应缴纳的所得税准备)才被计入西科金融报告的合并净资产,所有其他证券均按成本计价;(2)而在 1993 年,由于会计理念发生变化,所有证券均被要求按市场价值计价。
In previous years we described these convertible preferred stock investments as "sound but not exciting," noting that "few, if any, investors have ever prospered mightily from investing in convertible preferred stocks of leading corporations." Our ideas have not changed. But in aggregate our holdings at yearend 1993 were worth more than we paid for them. We estimate that (1) the $100 million Salomon holding was worth about 25% more than we paid for it, (2) the $12 million USAir holding was worth about 25% less than we paid for it, and (3) the $23 million Champion holding was worth about 5% more than we paid for it. These figures when combined created $23.1 million in net appreciation, before taxes, at the 1993 yearend. New America Electrical Corporation ("New America Electric") It was not just Wesco's savings and loan privileges that left our corporate fold in 1993. New America Electric, of which Wesco has owned about 80% since 1988, sold its business last year to a long-established and high-quality midwestern firm engaged in similar businesses. During 1993, Wesco's share of net loss was $192,000 for the six-month period preceding sale of the business, and Wesco realized an additional after-tax loss of $1.6 million ($.23 per Wesco share) on final disposition of its interest. The sale decision was made entirely by Glen Mitchel, New America Electric's CEO and 20% owner, who did not wish to wait for an eventual upturn in commercial construction after years of enduring a worst-since-the-1930s business climate to which he had adjusted through several painful downsizings. The bad timing of Wesco in entering the electrical equipment field when it did was entirely the result of misjudgment by the writer, caused by a strong, near-lifelong preference for predict- ing relative consequences from business and human quality while not attempting to predict business cycles. Considering the very hostile business climate we later encountered, New America Electric's business was always run extremely well by Glen Mitchel, and his dedication and skill prevented us from losing much more than we did. The writer caused Wesco's loss, not Glen Mitchel. Consolidated Balance Sheet And Related Discussion As indicated in the accompanying financial statements, Wesco increased its net worth, as accountants compute it under their conventions, from $411.7 million at yearend 1992 to $626.1 million at yearend 1993. This increase in reported net worth happened only in very small measure ($13.0 million) because of retention of 1993 income after deduction of dividends paid. Virtually the entire balance of the 1993 net worth increase occurred through accounting quirk and without real economic import, because (1) before 1993 only unrealized appreciation in equity securities of the Wes-FIC insurance subsidiary, after provision for income taxes to become due if the securities were sold, was included in Wesco's reported consolidated net worth, leaving all other securities valued at cost, whereas (2) in 1993, due to changed notions in accounting, all of 9
西科合并报表中的股权证券未实现增值,在原先西科金融保险子公司那里采用了相同的会计处理方式。即使在新会计准则应用之后,1993 年年末的结果仍然从西科合并净资产 6.261 亿美元中剔除了部分未实现增值——即西科合并持有的非权益证券中的未实现增值。这部分未实现的增值几乎全部存在于西科的可转换优先股中,扣除税款后,金额约为 1520 万美元。
如果将这额外的 1520 万美元加到西科 1993 年年末报告的合并净资产 6.261 亿美元中,得出的数字为 6.413 亿美元,约合每股西科股票 90 美元,这大致可以反映西科 1993 年年末的税后清算价值。
上述清算价值数字基于这样一个假设:西科所有非证券资产在税后都能按账面价值清算。可能这个假设过于保守,使得我们对近似税后清算价值的计算略微偏低。但我们的计算不太可能每股西科股票低估超过几美元,因为(1)西科合并持有的房地产(其潜在价值几乎全部来自西科在帕萨迪纳的办公楼和停车场物业的权益,加上西科在蒙特西托的住宅地产项目剩余部分)的清算价值现已远低于之前的高点,以及(2)其他资产(主要是精密钢公司)的未实现增值,相对于西科的整体规模而言,不可能大到足以显著改变整体税后清算价值的计算结果。
当然,只要西科不清算,也不出售任何增值资产,它实际上就拥有政府提供的一笔无息“贷款”,金额等于其未实现收益上计提的递延所得税,该税款在确定其净资产时被扣除了。这笔来自政府的无息“贷款”此刻正为西科股东服务,1993 年年末约占每股西科股票 24 美元。
然而,有朝一日,也许就在不久之后,这笔无息“贷款”的大部分必须随着资产出售而偿还。因此,西科股东并不拥有每股 24 美元永久性价值创造的先发优势。相反,西科股东优势的现值,逻辑上必然远低于每股西科股票 24 美元。在笔者看来,西科从其临时性无息“贷款”中所获优势的价值,1993 年年末约为每股西科股票 8 美元。
在估算出无息“贷款”所蕴含优势的价值后,便可以合理近似出西科每股内在价值。这种近似估算只需将(1)每股西科股票来自无息“贷款”的优势价值与(2)每股西科股票的清算价值加总即可。其他人可能有不同看法,但在笔者看来,上述方法似乎是估算西科每股内在价值的合理途径。
Wesco's consolidated unrealized appreciation in equity securities was given the same accounting treatment formerly in place at the Wes-FIC insurance subsidiary. Even after the new accounting notions were applied, the result at yearend 1993 still leaves out of Wesco's consolidated net worth of $626.1 million a residue of unrealized appreciation — in Wesco's consolidated holdings of non-equity securi- ties. This residue of unrealized appreciation exists almost entirely in Wesco's convertible preferred stocks, and, after tax provision, amounted to about $15.2 million more. If this additional $15.2 million were added to the $626.1 million of Wesco's consolidated net worth reported at yearend 1993, the resulting figure of $641.3 million, or about $90 per Wesco share, would give an approximation of Wesco's after-tax liquidation value at yearend 1993. The foregoing liquidation value figure is based on the assumption that all Wesco's non-security assets would liquidate, after taxes, at book value. Probably, this assumption is too conservative, making our computation of approximate after- tax liquidation value slightly too low. But our computation is unlikely to be too low by more than a couple of dollars per Wesco share, because (1) the liquidation value of Wesco's consolidated real estate holdings (where interesting potential lies almost entirely in Wesco's equity in its office and parking property in Pasadena, plus the residue of Wesco's residential real estate project in Montecito) is now far below its former high, and (2) unrealized appreciation in other assets (primarily Precision Steel) cannot be large enough, in relation to Wesco's overall size, to change very much the overall computation of after-tax liquidating value. Of course, so long as Wesco does not liquidate, and does not sell any appreciated assets, it has, in effect, an interest-free "loan" from the government equal to its deferred income taxes on unrealized gains, subtracted in determining its net worth. This interest-free "loan" from the government is at this moment working for Wesco shareholders and amounted to about $24 per Wesco share at yearend 1993. However, some day, perhaps soon, major parts of the interest-free "loan" must be paid as assets are sold. Therefore, Wesco's shareholders have no perpetual advantage creating value for them of $24 per Wesco share. Instead, the present value of Wesco's shareholders' advantage must logically be much lower than $24 per Wesco share. In the writer's judgment, the value of Wesco's advantage from its temporary, interest-free "loan" was probably about $8 per Wesco share at yearend 1993. After the value of the advantage inhering in the interest-free "loan" is estimated, a reasonable approximation can be made of Wesco's intrinsic value per share. This approximation is made by simply adding (1) the value of the advantage from the interest-free "loan" per Wesco share and (2) liquidating value per Wesco share. Others may think differently, but the foregoing approach seems reasonable to the writer as a way of estimating intrinsic value per Wesco share. 10
因此,如果在 1993 年底,这种免息税收递延“贷款”所带来的优势价值为每股西科金融 8 美元,而当时的税后清算价值约为每股 92 美元(在笔者看来,这些数字已经很高了),那么 1993 年底西科金融的每股内在价值就只剩下大约 100 美元。最后,这个在笔者看来合理的、每股 100 美元的内在价值数字,应该与 1993 年 12 月 31 日西科金融股票每股 129.50 美元的售价进行比较。这一比较表明,西科金融当时的股价大约比内在价值高出 30%。
当然,至少在某些情况下,一家像西科金融这样规模的公司,其卓越的管理层确实可以合理解释投资者为何愿意支付如此高的溢价(超过内在价值)。甚至可能有人认为,市场目前对西科金融管理质量的隐含乐观评价,会被未来的结果证明是合理的。但同样可能的是,西科金融股票的新买家正在犯一个错误,类似于这样一个错误:将一位非常年迈的 NFL 四分卫过去的表现(包括一些很久以前的表现)投射为未来长期表现的指标。
笔者从不认为管理层的恒定职责就是吹高股价。相反,职责是“如实陈述”。现在,出于某种原因,也许是因为我们方法的相对新颖性,我们的“如实陈述”态度似乎反而成了推高西科金融股价的一个因素——甚至可能比我们遵循更常规的“吹高股价”政策时还要高。
作为“如实陈述”政策的一部分,我们现在报告,近期一些对西科金融股票的追捧热情显然有不理性的根源。事实上,有些人甚至声称西科金融股票比伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票更值得买,理由是西科金融规模更小,或者其每股股价更低。这种推理过程在方法上是彻头彻尾的胡说八道。同样荒谬的是,认为综合考虑所有因素,西科金融在业务和人员方面的质量能与伯克希尔·哈撒韦相提并论。西科金融并非一个同样出色但规模更小、因规模小而使增长更容易因此更优的伯克希尔·哈撒韦。相反,西科金融的每一美元账面价值所提供的内在价值,明显低于伯克希尔·哈撒韦类似的一美元账面价值。
话虽如此,我们并不试图评估在当前股市价格下,西科金融与伯克希尔·哈撒韦股票相对的投资吸引力。相反,我们只是出于责任感,传达笔者的看法:在评估西科金融股票新买家的前景时,某些领域可能更需要谨慎。
1994 年 1 月 26 日,西科金融将其常规股息从每股 23.5 美分提高到每股 24.5 美分,将于 1994 年 3 月 9 日支付,股权登记日为 1994 年 2 月 9 日营业结束时。
Thus, if the value of the advantage from the interest-free tax-deferral "loan" present was $8 per Wesco share at yearend 1993, and after-tax liquidating value was then about $92 per share (figures that seem plenty high to the writer), Wesco's intrinsic value per share would become only about $100 per share at yearend 1993. And, finally, this reasonable-to-this-writer, $100-per-share-figure for intrinsic per share value of Wesco stock should be compared with the $129.50 per share price at which Wesco stock was selling on December 31, 1993. This comparison indicates that Wesco stock was then selling about 30% above intrinsic value. There are, to be sure, at least some circumstances where presence of some superior management in place at some corporation as large as Wesco would rationally justify an investor's payment of so large a premium over intrinsic value. It may even be remotely conceivable that the market's present implicit optimistic appraisal of Wesco's managerial quality will be justified by outcomes to foliow. But it may also be that new buyers of Wesco stock are making a mistake similar to the one that would be made if the past performance of a very old NFL quarterback, including some performance that occurred long ago, was projected as likely to indicate long- term performance to come. It has never been the writer's view that the unvarying duty of management is to whoop up the stock price. Instead, the duty is to "tell-it-like-it-is." Now, for some reason, perhaps the relative novelty of our approach, our "tell-it-like-it-is" attitude seems to be a contributing factor in pushing Wesco's stock price up — perhaps even higher than it would be if we followed the more normal whoop-it-up policy. As part of a "tell-it-like-it-is" policy we now report that some recent Wesco stock-buying enthusiasm plainly has irrational roots. Indeed, some people have gone so far as to suggest that Wesco stock is a better buy than stock of Berkshire Hathaway because Wesco is smaller or because Wesco's stock price per share is lower. Such reasoning processes constitute arrant nonsense in method. Also nonsensical is the notion that business and human quality in place at Wesco is anywhere near as good, all factors considered, as that in place at Berkshire Hathaway. Wesco is not an equaily-good-but-smaller version of Berkshire Hathaway, better because its small size makes growth easier. Instead, each dollar of book value at Wesco plainly provides much less intrinsic value than a similar dollar of book value at Berkshire Hathaway. All that said, we make no attempt to appraise relative attractiveness for invest- ment of Wesco vs Berkshire Hathaway stock at present stock-market quotations. Instead, we simply communicate, out of a feeling of duty, the writer's opinion that more caution is probably needed in some quarters as prospects for new buyers of Wesco stock are evaluated. On January 26, 1994 Wesco increased its regular dividend from 23½ cents per share to 24½ cents per share, payable March 9, 1994, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 9, 1994. 11
本年度报告包含提交给美国证券交易委员会的 10-K 表格,其中涵盖关于西科金融及其子公司的详细信息,以及附有大量注释的经审计财务报表。和往常一样,恳请您仔细关注这些内容。
查理·T·芒格
董事会主席
1994 年 3 月 23 日
This annual report contains Form 10-K, a report filed with the Securities and subsidiaries as well as audited financial statements bearing extensive footnotes. A xchange Commission, and includes detailed information about Wesco and it usual, your careful attention is sought with respect to these items. CharlesT manger Charles T. Munger Chairman of the Board March 23, 1994