Wesco金融董事长致股东信,1996财年(查理·芒格)
WESCO FINANCIAL CORPORATION
致股东的信
各位股东:
1996 日历年度,合并“正常”净经营利润(即剔除下表中非经常性项目后的利润)从前一年的 3020.8 万美元(每股 4.24 美元)增至 3073.4 万美元(每股 4.32 美元)。合并净利润(即计入下表中非经常性项目后的利润)从前一年的 3454.1 万美元(每股 4.85 美元)降至 3061.9 万美元(每股 4.30 美元)。
西科金融拥有三家主要子公司:(1)西科金融保险公司(简称“Wes-FIC”),总部位于奥马哈,主要从事再保险业务;(2)堪萨斯银行家担保公司(简称“KBS”),于 1996 年 7 月由 Wes-FIC 收购,专为中西部的银行定制保险产品;(3)精密钢铁公司,总部位于芝加哥,从事钢材仓储和特种金属制品业务。刚刚结束的两个年度的合并净利润明细如下(金额单位千美元,每股数据除外):
| 项目 | 截至 1996 年 12 月 31 日止年度 | 截至 1995 年 12 月 31 日止年度 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 金额 | 西科每股 | 金额 | 西科每股 | |
| Wes-FIC 和 KBS 保险业务的“正常”净经营利润 | 27,249 美元 | 3.83 美元 | 26,496 美元 | 3.72 美元 |
| 精密钢铁业务 | 3,033 美元 | 0.43 美元 | 2,386 美元 | 0.33 美元 |
| 所有其他“正常”净经营利润 | 452 美元 | 0.06 美元 | 1,326 美元 | 0.19 美元 |
| 合计“正常”净经营利润 | 30,734 美元 | 4.32 美元 | 30,208 美元 | 4.24 美元 |
| 出售有价证券的净收益(损失) | (115) 美元 | (0.02) 美元 | 4,333 美元 | 0.61 美元 |
| 西科合并净利润 | 30,619 美元 | 4.30 美元 | 34,541 美元 | 4.85 美元 |
注:(1)所有数字均已扣除所得税。(2)已扣除利息和其他公司费用,以及与逾期贷款相关的成本和费用……
这种补充性的利润明细与遵循标准会计准则的经审计财务报表中的略有不同。提供该补充明细,是因为我们判断它对股东有用。
西科金融保险公司(“Wes-FIC”)
Wes-FIC 1996 年的正常净利润为 2724.9 万美元,而 1995 年为 2649.6 万美元。1996 年的数字包括了堪萨斯银行家担保公司(“KBS”)在第三季度初被 Wes-FIC 收购后贡献的 228.8 万美元。关于 KBS 的收购,详见下文“堪萨斯银行家担保公司”部分。
截至 1996 年末,Wes-FIC 保留了大约 3100 万美元的投资资产(扣除赔付准备金),这些资产来自其与 Fireman's Fund Group 的前再保险安排。该安排已于 1989 年 8 月 31 日终止。但是,所有索赔的最终了结还需要很长时间,在此期间,Wes-FIC 将多年受益于“浮存金”投资带来的收益。
我们此前曾告知股东,Wes-FIC 已通过向伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团(西科的最终母公司)的转分保方式,进入了巨灾再保险业务。Wes-FIC 是在 1994 年初进入巨灾再保险业务的,此前它通过与 Mutual Savings(西科前储蓄与贷款子公司)的合并,大幅增强了赔付能力。1994 年,鉴于 Wes-FIC 稳健的财务状况,标准普尔公司将 Wes-FIC 的最高赔付能力评级定为 AAA。
Wes-FIC 从事的巨灾再保险业务,对 Wes-FIC 而言一直是一个非常合理的业务。Wes-FIC 相对于其赚取的年度保费收入而言,拥有巨额净资产。这正是任何一家计划成为“独立”再保险公司的公司,在承保无法安全转嫁给其他确保在大灾难发生时仍有偿付能力的公司的超级巨灾风险时所理性需要的条件。这样的“独立”再保险公司必须是一座“诺克斯堡”(Fort Knox),随时准备(无需依赖任何其他再保险公司援助)在一年内赔付数倍于保费收入的金额,以覆盖比安德鲁飓风更严重的超级巨灾所造成的损失。简而言之,它需要的资产负债表与 Wes-FIC 的非常相似。
关于从伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团向 Wes-FIC 转分保巨灾再保险业务,随着事态演变,现状是:伯克希尔·哈撒韦拥有其保险集团 100% 的股权,却仅拥有西科和 Wes-FIC 80% 的股权。因此,它并非出于某种慈善目的,而通常不会将伯克希尔·哈撒韦认为合意、且按现有条款只能获得低于伯克希尔·哈撒韦自身想要数量的再保险业务转分保给 Wes-FIC。相反,转分保仅会在有限条件下、偶尔发生,并会向伯克希尔·哈撒韦提供一些补偿。这类转分保通常仅发生在以下三种情况同时满足时:(1)伯克希尔·哈撒韦出于某种原因(通常是为了整体风险限制政策),希望获得的业务量低于按现有条款可获得的量;(2)Wes-FIC 有充足能力承担所承担的风险;(3)Wes-FIC 支付合理的分出佣金,以覆盖获取和管理保险业务的部分成本。
总体而言,伯克希尔·哈撒韦在与部分拥有的子公司打交道时,会试图稍微谨慎一些,以遵守卡多佐大法官所称的“最敏锐荣誉的严谨准则”(the punctilio of an honor the most sensitive),但不能期望它为了像 Wes-FIC 这样的部分持股子公司而进行大规模、明显的伯克希尔·哈撒韦资产或业务的让渡。
WESCO FINANCIAL CORPORATION LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS To Our Shareholders: Consolidated "normal" net operating income (i.e., before irregularly occurring items shown in the table below) for the calendar year 1996 increased to $30,734,000 ($4.32 per share) from $30,208,000 ($4.24 per share) in the previous year. Consolidated net income (i.e., after irregularly occurring items shown in the table below) decreased to $30,619,000 ($4.30 per share) from $34,541,000 ($4.85 per share) in the previous year. Wesco has three major subsidiaries: (1) Wesco-Financial Insurance Company ("Wes-FIC"), headquartered in Omaha and engaged principally in the reinsurance business, (2) The Kansas Bankers Surety Company ("KBS"), purchased by Wes-FIC in July 1996 and specializing in insurance products tailored to midwestern banks, and (3) Precision Steel, headquartered in Chicago and engaged in the steel warehousing and specialty metal products businesses. Consolidated net income for the two years just ended breaks down as follows (in 000s except for per-share amounts) '': Year Ended December 31, 1996 Wesco Per December 31, 1995 Per Amount Share Amount Wesco Share "Normal" net operating income of: Wes-FIC and KBS insurance businesses $27,249 $3.83 $26,496 $3.72 Precision Steel businesses........ 3,033 .43 2,386 33 All other "normal" net operating income(2) 452 .06 1,326 .19 30,734 4.32 30,208 4.24 Net gain (loss) on sales of marketable securities (115) (.02) 4,333 .61 Wesco consolidated net income.... $30,619 $4.30 $34,541 $4.85 (1) All figures are net of income taxes. (2) After deduction of interest and other corporate expenses, and costs and expenses associated with delinquent loans and This supplementary breakdown of earnings differs somewhat from that used in audited financial statements which follow standard accounting convention. The supplementary breakdown is furnished because it is considered useful to shareholders. Wesco-Financial Insurance Company ("Wes-FIC") Wes-FIC's normal net income for 1996 was $27,249,000, versus $26,496,000 for 1995. The 1996 figure includes $2,288,000 contributed by The Kansas Bankers Surety Company (KBS") following its purchase by Wes-FIC early in the third 1 quarter. The purchase of KBS is discussed in the section, "The Kansas Bankers Surety Company," below. At the end of 1996 Wes-FIC retained about $31 million in invested assets, offset by claims reserves, from its former reinsurance arrangement with Fireman's Fund Group. This arrangement was terminated August 31, 1989. However, it will take a long time before all claims are settled, and, meanwhile, Wes-FIC is being helped over many years by proceeds from investing "float." We previously informed shareholders that Wes-FIC had entered into the busi- ness of super-cat reinsurance through retrocessions from the Insurance Group of Berkshire Hathaway, Wesco's ultimate parent. Wes-FIC's entry into the super-cat reinsurance business early in 1994 followed the large augmentation of its claims- paying capacity caused by its merger with Mutual Savings, the former savings and loan subsidiary of Wesco. In 1994, in recognition of Wes-FIC's sound financial condition, Standard and Poor's Corporation assigned to Wes-FIC the highest possible claims-paying-ability rating: AAA. The super-cat reinsurance business, in which Wes-FIC is engaged, continues to be a very logical business for Wes-FIC. Wes-FIC has a large net worth in relation to annual premiums being earned. And this is exactly the condition rationally required for any insurance company planning to be a "stand alone" reinsurer covering super- catastrophe risks it can't safely pass on to others sure to remain solvent if a large super-catastrophe comes. Such a "stand alone" reinsurer must be a kind of Fort Knox, prepared occasionally, without calling on any other reinsurers for help, to pay out in a single year many times more than premiums coming in, as it covers losses from some super catastrophe worse than Hurricane Andrew. In short, it needs a balance sheet a lot like Wes-FIC's. In connection with the retrocessions of super-cat reinsurance to Wes-FIC from the Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Group, the nature of the situation as it has evolved is such that Berkshire Hathaway, owning 100% of its Insurance Group and only 80% of Wesco and Wes-FIC, does not, for some philanthropic reason, ordinarily retrocede to Wes-FIC any reinsurance business that Berkshire Hathaway considers desirable and that is available only in amounts below what Berkshire Hathaway wants for itself on the terms offered. Instead, retrocessions occur only occasionally, under limited conditions and with some compensation to Berkshire Hathaway. Such retrocessions ordinarily happen only (1) when Berkshire Hathaway, for some reason (usually a policy of overall risk limitation), desires lower amounts of business than are available on the terms offered and (2) Wes-FIC has adequate capacity to bear the risk assumed and (3) Wes-FIC pays a fair ceding commission designed to cover part of the cost of getting and managing insurance business. Generally, Berkshire Hathaway, in dealing with partly owned subsidiaries, tries to lean over a little backward in an attempt to observe what Justice Cardozo called "the punctilio of an honor the most sensitive," but it cannot be expected to make large and plain giveaways of Berkshire Hathaway assets or business to a partially owned subsidiary like Wes-FIC. 2
鉴于伯克希尔·哈撒韦不愿向 Wes-FIC 进行白送式的“馈赠”,以及近年来巨灾再保险市场的机会有所减少,Wes-FIC 收购转分保巨灾再保险的前景往往不佳。
此外,西科股东应继续认识到,巨灾再保险不是胆小者能涉足的领域。年度业绩可能出现巨大波动,对 Wes-FIC 来说,未来某些年份会非常糟糕,这是不可避免的。
但正是这些糟糕可能性所必然伴随的情况——在个别年份带来巨大且令人尴尬的不利后果——才使得 Wes-FIC 喜欢以现有方式从事巨灾再保险业务。巨灾再保险的买家(特别是明智的买家)往往希望与伯克希尔·哈撒韦的子公司打交道(因为它们拥有最高等级的信用评级和可靠的企业品格),而不是与其他那些不够谨慎、不够直接、资金也不够雄厚的再保险公司合作。而许多竞争性的巨灾再保险卖方都在寻找一份丰厚的“中介”利润,但这很难获得,因为它们必须找到一家“分保”再保险公司,这家公司既要(1)非常聪明,以至于肯定能保持足够强大以支付可能的损失,又要(2)对成本如此漫不经心,以至于不太在意某些不愿承担任何重大风险的中介实体所赚取的丰厚利润。因此,我们可以合理地预期,现有的力量将为资金充足、纪律严明的决策者带来可接受的长期结果,尽管某些年份会出现可怕的损失,其他年份业务承揽机会也会受限。而且,我们再次重申,我们只期望可接受的长期结果。我们认为没有暴利的可能。
还应注意的是,Wes-FIC 在与伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团的安排中,通过利用伯克希尔·哈撒韦的整体声誉获得了特殊的业务获取优势。在所有情况下,目前支付给 Wes-FIC 的 3% 的分保手续费似乎对其而言已是超过公平的。
当然,伯克希尔·哈撒韦显然不会向伯克希尔·哈撒韦关联集团之外的任何其他实体提供如此优厚的条件。
最后,我们重复一项关于 Wes-FIC 巨灾再保险获取机制的重要披露。当伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团提供再保险转分保时,让加利福尼亚州的人为 Wes-FIC 做出复杂的接受或拒绝决定是不切实际的。但幸运的是,做出原始业务获取决策的伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团高管们深受笔者钦佩和信任,他们将“自食其果”。在这种情况下,根据笔者的建议,西科和 Wes-FIC 的董事会已简单批准了由一家或多家伯克希尔·哈撒韦全资子公司向 Wes-FIC 提供的再保险自动转分保。每笔转分保将立即由 Wes-FIC 在内布拉斯加州的代理人书面接受,而这些代理人同时也是伯克希尔·哈撒韦全资子公司的受薪雇员。此外,每笔转分保将按保费的 3% 支付分保手续费。最后,必须满足两个条件:(1)Wes-FIC 必须承担 20% 或更少的风险(在考虑分保手续费的影响之前),以及(2)伯克希尔·哈撒韦的全资子公司必须保留至少 80% 的相同风险(同样,不考虑分保手续费的影响)。
我们通常不会向西科股东详细描述单个巨灾再保险合同。这不符合我们的竞争利益。相反,我们将尝试合理总结任何非常重要的事项。
未来是否会有更多再保险通过伯克希尔·哈撒韦的子公司,按照我们上述描述的基准并使用自动程序提供给 Wes-FIC?嗯,我们常常是糟糕的预测者。我们只能说我们希望如此,并且应该有更多的再保险进来,尽管可能不规则且间隔很长。然而,在 1996 年,只有三份新合同可供 Wes-FIC 获取并承保,其中一份不是巨灾再保险合同,另一份从 1997 年 1 月开始生效。此外,Wes-FIC 在 1996 年之前承保的所有巨灾保单都在 1996 年底到期。
我们继续考察其他可能的保险承保机会,以及保险公司收购机会,这些收购有的类似我们最近收购的 KBS,有的则不同。
Wes-FIC 现在是一家非常强大的保险公司,成本极低,并且,无论以何种方式,在未来,如同过去一样,我们期望继续发现并抓住至少少数明智的保险机会。
在 Wes-FIC 迄今(1997 年 3 月 7 日)接受的巨灾再保险上,据我们所知,没有发生任何损失。390 万美元的税前承保利润使 1996 年收益受益,而 1995 年为 630 万美元。我们的会计政策要求在合同到期后才能确认巨灾承保利润。不用说,我们不会在合同到期前对报告损失有类似的迟疑。我们的巨灾会计政策并非不合理地超级保守,尽管它可能算得上是“最佳实践”会计。
堪萨斯银行家担保公司(“KBS”)
KBS 于 1996 年第三季度初由 Wes-FIC 以约 8000 万美元现金收购,按照合并会计惯例调整后,为保险业务的正常净运营收入贡献了 228.8 万美元。KBS 的业绩已与 Wes-FIC 的业绩合并,并包含在上述表格的“Wes-FIC 和 KBS 保险业务的‘正常’净运营收入”类别中。
对 KBS 的收购之所以能为西科所用并被接受,是因为伯克希尔·哈撒韦与 KBS 达成了协议,伯克希尔同意收购这家担保公司的股票,并有意让西科或其保险子公司完成交易。如果你扣除 KBS 在收购日拥有的 6390 万美元现金及现金等价物投资、联邦政府及其机构支持的义务投资以及州和市政债券,那么收购后西科的净可投资资产减少了大约 1600 万美元。考虑到 KBS 未来可能的承保利润,这种可投资资产的减少被认为是值得接受的。
KBS 成立于 1909 年,为堪萨斯州的银行承保存款保险。其办公室位于堪萨斯州托皮卡。多年来,其服务不断适应银行业不断变化的需求。如今,其客户群主要由中小型社区银行组成,分布在主要位于中西部的 22 个州。除了为超出 FDIC 保险范围的存款提供保险的银行存款担保债券外,KBS 还提供董事和高管赔偿保险、银行雇佣行为保险、银行年金和共同基金赔偿保险以及银行保险代理人职业错误与遗漏赔偿保险。
KBS 由总裁唐纳德·托尔领导,并由 13 名敬业的官员和员工协助。
精密钢铁公司
西科子公司精密钢铁公司的业务总部位于伊利诺伊州富兰克林公园芝加哥郊区,1996 年为正常净运营收入贡献了 303.3 万美元,比 1995 年的 238.6 万美元增长了 27%。然而,1996 年收益的显著改善主要归因于后进先出存货会计调整,这使得 1996 年税后收益增加了约 25 万美元,而 1995 年则因此减少了 46 万美元。我们不认为后进先出会计调整引起的收益变化,无论是增加还是减少,对未来盈利能力的预测具有实质性意义。1996 年利润的增加发生在产品销售磅数增长 7% 的情况下。收入仅增长了 2.2%。
在戴维·希尔斯特罗姆的熟练领导下,精密钢铁公司的业务在 1996 年继续为所用资源提供了优异的回报。
储蓄与贷款时代的尾端
现在,在 Wes-FIC 之外但在西科之内,作为西科先前参与 Mutual Savings(西科长期持有的储蓄与贷款子公司)的后果,只剩下一个小型房地产子公司 MS Property Company,它持有一系列资产和负债的尾端,账面净值(经过认为充分的减记后)约为 2400 万美元。MS Property Company 的运营(包括减记,1996 年没有减记)导致西科在 1996 年遭受了约 40 万美元的税后损失。预计西科迟早会从 MS Property Company 的净资产中实现至少略多于 2400 万美元的收益,在此之前,这 2400 万美元账面价值将获得适度的回报。MS Property Company 1996 年的亏损相对于西科目前的规模来说微不足道,已包含在上述收益细分中的“所有其他‘正常’净运营收入”项下。
Given Berkshire Hathaway's unwillingness to make plain giveaways to Wes-FIC and reductions in opportunities in the super-cat reinsurance market in recent years, prospects are often poor for Wes-FIC's acquisition of retroceded super-cat reinsurance. Moreover, Wesco shareholders should continue to realize that super-cat rein- surance is not for the faint of heart. A huge variation in annual results, with some very unpleasant future years for Wes-FIC, is inevitable. But it is precisely what must, in the nature of things, be associated with these bad possibilities, with their huge and embarrassing adverse consequences in occa- sional years, that makes Wes-FIC like its way of being in the super-cat business. Buyers (particularly wise buyers) of super-cat reinsurance often want to deal with Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries (possessing as they do the highest possible credit ratings and a reliable corporate personality) instead of other reinsurers less cautious, straightforward and well endowed. And many competing sellers of super-cat reinsur- ance are looking for a liberal "intermediary's" profit, hard to get because they must find a "layoff" reinsurer both (1) so smart that it is sure to stay strong enough to pay possible losses yet (2) so casual about costs that it is not much bothered by a liberal profit earned by some intermediary entity not willing to retain any major risk. Thus the forces in place can rationally be expected to cause acceptable long-term results for well-financed, disciplined decision makers, despite horrible losses in some years and other years of restricted opportunity to write business. And, again, we wish to repeat that we expect only acceptable long-term results. We see no possibility for bonanza. It should also be noted that Wes-FIC, in the arrangements with the Insurance Group of Berkshire Hathaway, receives a special business-acquisition advantage from using Berkshire Hathaway's general reputation. Under all the circumstances, the 3% ceding commission now being paid seems more than fair to Wes-FIC. Certainly and obviously, Berkshire Hathaway would not offer terms so good to any other entity outside the Berkshire Hathaway affiliated group. Finally, we repeat an important disclosure about Wes-FIC's super-cat-reinsur- ance-acquisition mechanics. It is impractical to have people in California make complex accept-or-reject decisions for Wes-FIC when retrocessions of reinsurance are offered by the Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Group. But, happily, the Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Group executives making original business-acquisition deci- sions are greatly admired and trusted by the writer and will be "eating their own cooking." Under such circumstances, Wesco's and Wes-FIC's boards of directors, on the writer's recommendation, have simply approved automatic retrocessions of reinsurance to Wes-FIC as offered by one or more wholly owned Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries. Each retrocession is to be accepted forthwith in writing in Nebraska by agents of Wes-FIC who are at the same time salaried employees of wholly owned subsidiaries of Berkshire Hathaway. Moreover, each retrocession will be made at a 3%-of-premiums ceding commission. Finally, two conditions must be satisfied: (1) Wes-FIC must get 20% or less of the risk (before taking into account 3 effects from the ceding commission) and (2) wholly owned Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries must retain at least 80% of the identical risk (again, without taking into account effects from the ceding commission). We will not ordinarily describe individual super-cat reinsurance contracts in full detail to Wesco shareholders. That would be contrary to our competitive interest. Instead, we will try to summarize reasonably any items of very large importance. Will more reinsurance be later available to Wes-FIC through Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries on the basis and using the automatic procedure we have above described? Well, we have often proved poor prognosticators. We can only say that we hope so and that more reinsurance should come, albeit irregularly and with long intermissions. However, only three new contracts became available and were taken on by Wes-FIC in 1996, with one of these not being a super-cat contract and another becoming effective starting in January 1997. Moreover, all Wes-FIC's super- cat policies written before 1996 had expired by yearend 1996. We continue to examine other possible insurance-writing opportunities, and also insurance company acquisitions, like and unlike the purchase of our recently acquired KBS. Wes-FIC is now a very strong insurance company, with very low costs, and, one way or another, in the future as in the past, we expect to continue to find and seize at least a few sensible insurance opportunities. On super-cat reinsurance accepted by Wes-FIC to date (March 7, 1997) there has been no loss whatsoever that we know of. Underwriting profit of $3.9 million, before taxes, benefited 1996 earnings, versus $6.3 million in 1995. Our accounting policy requires contract expiration before super-cat underwriting profit is recognized. Needless to say, we would not have similar reluctance to report losses before contract expirations. Our super-cat accounting policy is not irrationally super- conservative, although it may amount to "best-practice" accounting. The Kansas Bankers Surety Company ("KBS") KBS, purchased by Wes-FIC early in the third quarter of 1996 for approximately $80 million in cash, contributed $2,288,000 to the normal net operating income of the insurance businesses, after adjustments under consolidated accounting conven- tion. The results of KBS have been combined with those of Wes-FIC, and are included in the foregoing table in the category, '''normal' net operating income of Wes-FIC and KBS insurance businesses." The acquisition of KBS became available to, and was accepted by, Wesco following an agreement entered into with KBS by Berkshire Hathaway, under which Berkshire agreed to acquire the stock of the surety company with the intention of having the transaction completed by Wesco or its insurance subsidiary. If you deduct the $63.9 million of cash, cash-equivalent investments, investments in obligations 4 backed by the Federal government and its agencies, and state and municipal bonds owned by KBS as of the purchase date, this left Wesco with approximately $16 million less in net investable assets after the acquisition. This reduction in investable assets was considered worth accepting, given the likely future underwriting profit of KBS. KBS was chartered in 1909 to underwrite deposit insurance for Kansas banks. Its offices are in Topeka, Kansas. Over the years its service has continued to adapt to the changing needs of the banking industry. Today its customer base, consisting mostly of small and medium-sized community banks, is spread throughout 22 mainly midwestern states. In addition to bank deposit guaranty bonds which insure deposits in excess of FDIC coverage, KBS also offers directors and officers indemnity policies, bank employment practices policies, bank annuity and mutual funds indemnity policies and bank insurance agents professional errors and omissions indemnity policies. KBS is run by Donald Towle, President, assisted by 13 dedicated officers and employees. Precision Steel The businesses of Wesco's Precision Steel subsidiary, headquartered in the outskirts of Chicago at Franklin Park, Illinois, contributed $3,033,000 to normal net operating income in 1996, up 27% compared with $2,386,000 in 1995. However, the substantial improvement in 1996 earnings was due mainly to LIFO inventory ac- counting adjustments, which increased after-tax earnings approximately $250,000 in 1996 after reducing such earnings by $460,000 in 1995. We do not regard earnings changes from LIFO accounting adjustments, up or down, as material in predicting future earning power. The increase in 1996 profit occurred as pounds of product sold increased 7%. Revenues were up only 2.2%. Under the skilled leadership of David Hillstrom, Precision Steel's businesses in 1996 continued to provide an excellent return on resources employed. Tag Ends from Savings and Loan Days All that now remains outside Wes-FIC but within Wesco as a consequence of Wesco's former involvement with Mutual Savings, Wesco's long-held savings and loan subsidiary, is a small real estate subsidiary, MS Property Company, that holds tag ends of assets and liabilities with a net book value (after writedowns considered adequate) of about $24 million. Operations (including writedowns, of which there were none in 1996) of MS Property Company caused an after-tax loss to Wesco in 1996 of about $400,000. Sooner or later Wesco is expected to realize at least a little more than $24 million from MS Property Company's net assets, after earning modest returns until that time on the $24 million of book value involved. MS Property Company's 1996 loss, immaterial versus Wesco's present size, is included in the foregoing breakdown of earnings within "all other 'normal' net operating income." 5
预计 1997 年,西科金融在出售多项房地产资产后,将能够从 MS 房地产公司大量收回现金净额。
当然,西科金融从储蓄与贷款时代遗留至今的主要“尾巴”,是 2880 万股(已按 1996 年年末后不久进行的 1 拆 4 拆股调整)联邦住宅贷款抵押公司(“房地美”)股票。这些股票由互助储蓄公司以 7170 万美元购入,当时只有储蓄与贷款机构才能合法持有房地美股票。截至 1996 年年末,这笔持股的市值达到 7.947 亿美元,目前存放在 Wes-FIC。在我们最初买入之后的几年里,房地美及其类似的同行“房利美”,通过接管大部分中低价位住房的融资业务,让储蓄与贷款行业的日子相当难过。
我们从经营储蓄与贷款业务转变为持有房地美股票的经历,印证了我长期以来的一个想法:在一生中,只要做好准备,在少数几个机会上果断采取大规模行动,做简单而合乎逻辑的事,往往能极大地改善一生的财务成果。一个持续探索、耐心等待、保持好奇心、热爱诊断多变量问题的人,通常能遇到几个显而易见的大机会。这时,只需要在胜算极高时愿意重注押下,动用过去谨慎和耐心所积累的资源即可。
其他所有“正常”经营利润
所有其他“正常”经营利润(扣除利息支出和一般公司费用后)从 1995 年的 132.6 万美元下降到 1996 年的 45.2 万美元。来源包括:(1)西科金融位于帕萨迪纳的办公楼物业租金(毛租金 291.7 万美元,几乎全部出租给外部租户,包括一楼租户 CenFed 银行);(2)保险子公司以外持有的现金等价物和有价证券的利息和股息,这些收入在 1996 年和 1995 年基本被清算遗留不良贷款和止赎房产的成本和费用所抵消。1996 年和 1995 年的数据还包括向 Wes-FIC 借款产生的内部利息费用(税后分别为 29.8 万美元和 96.5 万美元),该借款主要用于 1993 年末将贷款和止赎房产转移至 MS 房地产公司。这项内部利息费用不影响西科金融的合并净利润,因为同等金额已作为利息收入计入 Wes-FIC 的“正常”经营利润。
证券净损益
西科金融 1996 年收益中包含税后证券亏损 11.5 万美元,而 1995 年为税后净收益 433.3 万美元。后者包括西科金融对冠军国际公司的可转换优先股投资转换为普通股并出售后实现的 419.2 万美元收益。
It is anticipated that in 1997 Wesco will be able to make a substantial net withdrawal, in cash, from MS Property Company following sale of various real estate assets. Of course, the main tag end from Wesco's savings and loan days is 28,800,000 shares (reflecting a 4-for-1 split distributed shortly after yearend 1996) of Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation ("Freddie Mac"), purchased by Mutual Savings for $71.7 million at a time when Freddie Mac shares could be lawfully owned only by a savings and loan association. This holding, with a market value of $794.7 million at yearend 1996, now reposes • in Wes-FIC. And, in the years following our initial purchase, Freddie Mac and its similar cousin, "Fannie Mae," have made matters pretty miserable for the savings and loan industry by taking over most financing of low-to-moderate-cost homes. Our experience in shifting from savings and loan operation to ownership of Freddie Mac shares tends to confirm a long-held notion that being prepared, on a few occasions in a lifetime, to act promptly in scale in doing some simple and logical thing will often dramatically improve the financial results of that lifetime. A few major opportunities, clearly recognizable as such, will usually come to one who continu- ously searches and waits, with a curious mind, loving diagnosis involving multiple variables. And then all that is required is a willingness to bet heavily when the odds are extremely favorable, using resources available as a result of prudence and patience in the past. All Other "Normal" Net Operating Income All other "normal" net operating income, net of interest paid and general corporate expenses, decreased to $452,000 in 1996 from $1,326,000 in 1995. Sources were (1) rents ($2,917,000 gross) from Wesco's Pasadena office property (leased almost entirely to outsiders, including CenFed Bank as the ground floor tenant), and (2) interest and dividends from cash equivalents and marketable securities held outside the insurance subsidiaries, mostly offset in both years by costs and expenses of liquidating tag-end delinquent loans and foreclosed real estate. The 1996 and 1995 figures also include intercompany charges for interest expense ($298,000 and $965,000 after taxes, respectively) on borrowings from Wes-FIC principally made late in 1993 to facilitate the transfer of loans and foreclosed properties to MS Property Company. This intercompany interest expense does not affect Wesco's consolidated net income inasmuch as the same amount is included as interest income in Wes-FIC's "normal" net operating income. Net Securities Gains and Losses Wesco's earnings for 1996 contained securities losses of $115,000, after income taxes, versus net gains of $4,333,000, after income taxes, in 1995. The latter figure included $4,192,000 realized on the conversion to common stock and sale of Wesco's investment in convertible preferred stock of Champion International Corporation. 6
可转换优先股持股情况
1996 年末,西科金融及其子公司按照原始成本持有所罗门公司(“所罗门”)和美国航空集团(“USAir”)的 7200 万美元可转换优先股,这些股份均需在未来几年内按面值赎回或转换为普通股。
根据会计惯例,这些投资按公允价值计入西科金融的合并资产负债表,其中所罗门股份的历史成本与市值的差额,以及美国航空股份的调整后成本与市值的差额,在扣除所得税影响后计入股东权益,但不影响报告净利润。对美国航空的投资已于 1994 年 12 月 31 日减记至 300 万美元的公允价值,这 300 万美元现在被视为调整后成本;减记至新调整后成本所产生的 590 万美元税后损失,已作为单独费用列于西科金融 1994 年损益表中。以下是 1996 年末这些可转换优先股投资的摘要:
| 证券 | 股息率 | 持有面值 | 转换价格(可换普通股) | 1996 年 12 月 31 日普通股市价 | 1996 年 12 月 31 日持仓市值 | 持有价值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 所罗门公司 | 9.00% | 6000 万美元 | 38.00 美元 | 47.125 美元 | 6600 万美元 | 1200 万美元 |
| 美国航空集团 | 9.25% | 1200 万美元 | 38.74 美元 | 23.375 美元 | 1080 万美元 | 550 万美元 |
这些可转换优先股是在西科金融的母公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦以相同每股价格购入额外相同股份的同时购买的。1995 年 10 月 31 日,所罗门根据其可转换优先股条款,按成本加应计股息赎回了西科金融持有的 2000 万美元面值优先股。一年后,1996 年 10 月 31 日,西科金融将其所持所罗门剩余优先股中的 2000 万美元面值转换为 526,314 股所罗门普通股。这些普通股按“可交易权益证券”类别计入西科金融财务报表,1996 年末市值为 2480 万美元。
前几年我们曾指出,“投资于领先公司的可转换优先股,几乎没有什么投资者能从中获得丰厚收益”。我们在 1996 年末持有的两项股份似乎印证了这一点。我们估计,(1)我们持有的 6000 万美元所罗门股份比买入价大约增值 600 万美元;(2)我们持有的 1200 万美元美国航空股份,在 1994 年末减记至调整后成本 300 万美元后,1996 年末价值比调整后成本高出约 780 万美元,但比买入价少 120 万美元。考虑到 1994 年美国航空集团减记产生的 900 万美元税前损失,这些数字合并后,相对于调整后成本产生了 1380 万美元的税前增值,相对于实际成本则增值 480 万美元。然而,读者应记住,西科金融此前在 1989 年以 4000 万美元成本买入吉列公司可转换优先股,并于 1991 年转换为吉列普通股,这项投资的回报要好得多。该投资在西科金融 1996 年合并资产负债表中以 1996 年末 2.488 亿美元的市值列示,比投资成本高出 2.008 亿美元。此外,如上文所述,西科金融在 1995 年出售其持有的 2300 万美元冠军国际公司优先股投资,实现了 420 万美元的税后收益。然而,即使将所有良好经验考虑在内,我们从可转换优先股持股中获得的整体投资回报仍然平淡无奇,尽管比我们预测的要好一些。
合并资产负债表及相关讨论
如随附财务报表所示,按照会计师惯例计算,西科金融的净资产从 1995 年末的 9.57 亿美元(每股西科金融股份 134 美元)增至 1996 年末的 12.5 亿美元(每股西科金融股份 176 美元)。
1996 年报告净资产增加的 2.93 亿美元源于两个因素:(1)在计提未来资本利得税后,投资持续升值带来的 2.7 亿美元;(2)1996 年净利润在扣除已支付股息后留存下来的 2300 万美元。
上述每股 176 美元的账面价值,假设西科金融所有非证券资产在税后按账面价值清算,大致相当于清算价值。可能,这个假设过于保守。但我们计算出的清算价值,每股西科金融股份的差距不太可能超过几美元,因为(1)西科金融合并持有的房地产(其潜在价值现在几乎全部来自帕萨迪纳办公物业的权益)的清算价值远低于其以往高点;(2)其他资产(主要是精密钢铁公司)的未实现升值,相对于西科金融的整体规模,不足以大幅改变整体税后清算价值的计算结果。
当然,只要西科金融不清算,也不出售任何升值资产,它就实际上从政府那里获得了一笔无息“贷款”,金额等于其在确定净资产时扣除的、针对未实现收益的递延所得税。这笔来自政府的无息“贷款”目前正为西科金融股东创造价值,1996 年末约为每股西科金融股份 66 美元。
然而,有朝一日,也许很快就需要,必须随着资产出售来偿还这笔无息“贷款”的大部分。因此,西科金融的股东并未获得每股 66 美元的永久性价值优势。相反,西科金融股东优势的现值,逻辑上必然远低于每股 66 美元。在笔者看来,西科金融从其临时性无息“贷款”中获得的价值,在 1996 年末可能约为每股 20 美元。
在估算了源自无息“贷款”的优势价值之后,就可以合理近似西科金融的每股内在价值。这种近似方法只需将(1)每股西科金融股份的无息“贷款”优势价值与(2)每股西科金融股份的清算价值相加即可。
Convertible Preferred Stockholdings At the end of 1996, Wesco and its subsidiaries owned $72 million, at original cost, in convertible preferred stocks of Salomon Inc ("Salomon") and USAir Group, Inc. ("USAir"), both requiring redemption at par value or conversion to common stock within the next few years. The investments are carried on Wesco's consolidated balance sheet at fair market value, with any difference between historical cost and market value as to Salomon, and between adjusted cost and market value as to USAir, included in shareholders' equity, net of income tax effect, without affecting reported net income, according to accounting convention. The investment in USAir was written down to a fair market value of $3 million effective December 31, 1994, and this $3 million figure is now treated as adjusted cost; the $5.9 million after-tax loss on the writedown to the new adjusted cost was shown as a separate charge on Wesco's 1994 statement of income. Following is a summary of these investments in converti- ble preferred stocks at yearend 1996: Conversion Price at Which Par Market Price 12/31/96 Preferred Par Value alue May B of Common Yearend Dividend Carrying Security Rate Holding of Common Stock xchanged fo 12/31/96 Stock on Value o Holding Salomon Inc. 9.00% $60 Million $38.00 USAir Group, Inc. 9.25% $47.125 $ 66 Million 12 Million 38.74 23.375 10.8 Million These convertible preferred stocks were purchased at the same time Wesco's parent corporation, Berkshire Hathaway, purchased additional amounts of the same stocks at the same price per share. On October 31, 1995, in accordance with the terms of its convertible preferred stock, Salomon redeemed $20 million par value of its preferred shares owned by Wesco at cost plus accrued dividends. One year later, on October 31, 1996, Wesco converted $20 million par value of its remaining preferred shares of Salomon to 526,314 shares of common stock of Salomon. Market value of these common shares, carried in the category "marketable equity securities" in Wesco's financial statements, was $24.8 million at yearend 1996. In previous years we noted that "few, if any, investors have ever prospered mightily from investing in convertible preferred stocks of leading corporations." Our two holdings at yearend 1996 appear to bear this out. We estimate that (1) our $60 million Salomon holding was worth about $6 million more than we paid for it, and (2) our $12 million USAir holding, written down to an adjusted cost of $3 million at yearend 1994, was at yearend 1996 worth about $7.8 million more than such adjusted cost, but $1.2 million less than we paid for it. These figures when combined created $13.8 million in pre-tax appreciation above adjusted cost, and $4.8 million more than actual cost, considering the $9 million pre-tax loss shown in 1994 on the USAir Group writedown. Readers should bear in mind, however, that Wesco's experience to date has been very much better in an investment in convertible preferred stock of The Gillette Company, made in 1989 at cost of $40 million, and converted into Gillette common stock in 1991. This investment is carried at a $248.8 million yearend market value in Wesco's consolidated 1996 7 balance sheet. This is $200.8 million more than the investment cost. Also, as discussed above, Wesco realized an after-tax gain of $4.2 million in 1995 on sale of its $23 million investment in preferred stock of Champion International Corporation. However, even with all good experience factored in, our overall investment returns from convertible preferred stockholdings have been unexciting, although somewhat better than we predicted. Consolidated Balance Sheet And Related Discussion As indicated in the accompanying financial statements, Wesco increased its net worth, as accountants compute it under their conventions, to $1.25 billion ($176 per Wesco share) at yearend 1996 from $957 million ($134 per Wesco share) at yearend 1995. The $293 million increase in reported net worth in 1996 was the result of two factors: (1) $270 million resulting from continued net appreciation of investments after provision for future taxes on capital gains; and (2) $23 million from retention of 1996 net income after deduction of dividends paid. The foregoing $176-per-share book value approximates liquidation value assum- ing that all Wesco's non-security assets would liquidate, after taxes, at book value. Probably, this assumption is too conservative. But our computation of liquidation value is unlikely to be too low by more than a couple of dollars per Wesco share, because (1) the liquidation value of Wesco's consolidated real estate holdings (where interesting potential now lies almost entirely in Wesco's equity in its office property in Pasadena) is now far below its former high, and (2) unrealized appreciation in other assets (primarily Precision Steel) cannot be large enough, in relation to Wesco's overall size, to change very much the overall computation of after-tax liquidating value. Of course, so long as Wesco does not liquidate, and does not sell any appreciated assets, it has, in effect, an interest-free "loan" from the government equal to its deferred income taxes on unrealized gains, subtracted in determining its net worth. This interest-free "loan" from the government is at this moment working for Wesco shareholders and amounted to about $66 per Wesco share at yearend 1996. However, some day, perhaps soon, major parts of the interest-free "loan" must be paid as assets are sold. Therefore, Wesco's shareholders have no perpetual advantage creating value for them of $66 per Wesco share. Instead, the present value of Wesco's shareholders' advantage must logically be much lower than $66 per Wesco share. In the writer's judgment, the value of Wesco's advantage from its temporary, interest-free "loan" was probably about $20 per Wesco share at yearend 1996. After the value of the advantage inhering in the interest-free "loan" is estimated, a reasonable approximation can be made of Wesco's intrinsic value per share. This approximation is made by simply adding (1) the value of the advantage from the interest-free "loan" per Wesco share and (2) liquidating value per Wesco share. 8
其他人可能有不同看法,但笔者以为,上述方法是一种合理的估算西科金融每股内在价值的方式。
因此,如果 1996 年底,免息税务递延“贷款”带来的优势价值为每股 20 美元,而当时税后清算价值约为每股 176 美元(这些数字在笔者看来是合理的),那么西科金融 1996 年底的每股内在价值将约为 196 美元,较 1995 年底类似计算中预估的内在价值增长了 32%。最后,这个对笔者来说合理的、每股 196 美元的内在价值估算数字,应与 1996 年 12 月 31 日西科股票每股 187 美元的市场价格进行比较。这个比较表明,当时西科股票的售价低于其内在价值约 5%。
随着西科未实现增值的持续增长,应当牢记,这受到市场波动的影响,其最终能否完全实现并无保证。未实现税后增值占西科 1996 年末股东权益的 70%,而一年前和两年前这一比例分别为 63% 和 51%。
综合考虑所有因素,西科目前所拥有的业务和人才质量,仍远不及伯克希尔·哈撒韦。西科并非一个同样优秀但规模更小的伯克希尔·哈撒韦——不是因为规模小更容易增长就更优秀。相反,西科每一美元的账面价值所对应的内在价值,明显低于伯克希尔·哈撒韦每一美元账面价值所对应的内在价值。
尽管如此,我们并不会根据当前股市报价,去评估西科股票与伯克希尔·哈撒韦股票在投资上的相对吸引力。从长期来看,我们目前对业务扩张并不悲观。尽管当前整个企业的市场情绪高涨,使得西科难以找到有吸引力的机会,但我们并不相信这样的机会将永远不会到来。
1997 年 1 月 15 日,西科将常规股息从每股 26.5 美分提高至每股 27.5 美分,将于 1997 年 3 月 5 日支付给 1997 年 2 月 5 日营业结束时登记在册的股东。
这份年报包含提交给证券交易委员会的 10-K 表格,详细介绍了西科及其子公司的信息,并附有经审计的财务报表及详尽的脚注。与往常一样,恳请您仔细关注这些内容。
查尔斯·T·芒格
董事会主席
1997 年 3 月 7 日
Others may think differently, but the foregoing approach seems reasonable to the writer as a way of estimating intrinsic value per Wesco share. Thus, if the value of the advantage from the interest-free tax-deferral "loan" present was $20 per Wesco share at yearend 1996, and after-tax liquidating value was then about $176 per share (figures that seem rational to the writer), Wesco's intrinsic value per share would become about $196 per share at yearend 1996, up 32% from intrinsic value as guessed in a similar calculation at the end of 1995. And, finally, this reasonable-to-this-writer, $196-per-share figure for intrinsic per share value of Wesco stock should be compared with the $187 per share price at which Wesco stock was selling on December 31, 1996. This comparison indicates that Wesco stock was then selling about 5% below intrinsic value. As Wesco's unrealized appreciation has continued to grow, it should be remembered that it is subject to market fluctuation, with no guaranty as to its ultimate full realization. Unrealized after-tax appreciation represents 70% of Wesco's shareholders' equity at 1996 yearend, versus 63% and 51% one and two years earlier. Business and human quality in place at Wesco continues to be not nearly as good, all factors considered, as that in place at Berkshire Hathaway. Wesco is not an equally-good-but-smaller version of Berkshire Hathaway, better because its small size makes growth easier. Instead, each dollar of book value at Wesco continues plainly to provide much less intrinsic value than a similar dollar of book value at Berkshire Hathaway. All that said, we make no attempt to appraise relative attractiveness for invest- ment of Wesco versus Berkshire Hathaway stock at present stock-market quotations. We are not now pessimists, on a long-term basis, about business expansion. Despite present ebullient markets for entire businesses, making it hard for Wesco to find attractive opportunities, we do not believe that such opportunities will never come. On January 15, 1997 Wesco increased its regular dividend from 26½ cents per the close of business on February 5, 1997. share to 27/½ cents per share, payable March 5, 1997, to shareholders of record as of This annual report contains Form 10-K, a report filed with the Securities and xchange Commission, and includes detailed information about Wesco and it ubsidiaries as well as audited financial statements bearing extensive footnotes. A usual, your careful attention is sought with respect to these items. Charks T manger Charles T. Munger Chairman of the Board March 7, 1997